Can Europe stem the Southern tide...?

Great article from ESPN..! Extracts below..

So well established is the autumn international programme in rugby's contemporary calendar that it comes as a shock to recall that, like the Heineken Cup, it is less than 20 years old and a product of the game's professional era.

The forces that got all of the southern hemisphere's giants visiting most years were those which dominated the somewhat panicky years of the new settlement - a desperate search for new income with which to fund vastly increased costs. Only an extended international programme could be counted upon to do that.

So it is that when autumn matches resume this month after their World Cup year sabbatical in 2011, fans in Europe will be able to see not only the Boks, All Blacks and Wallabies, but the Pumas, Fiji and Samoa.

As so often with historical statistics, the breathtaking element is the dominance of the All Blacks. Over the entire period, their winning record as an away team against the Five Nations has been 82.96%.

http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/story/171574.html



So what are the chances? Can any Northern Hemisphere teams upset the form book this time??

How many games do you think the home Nations will each win against their opposition...???

Saturday, 10 November 2012

England v Fiji, 14:30
Ireland v South Africa
Italy v Tonga
Wales v Argentina, 14:30
Sunday, 11 November 2012
Scotland v New Zealand, 14:30

Friday, 16 November 2012
Wales v Samoa, 19:30
Saturday, 17 November 2012
Argentina v France
England v Australia, 14:30
Italy v New Zealand
Scotland v South Africa, 14:30

Saturday, 24 November 2012
England v South Africa, 14:30
Ireland v Argentina
Italy v Australia
Scotland v Tonga, 15:00
Wales v New Zealand, 17:15

Saturday, 1 December 2012
England v New Zealand, 14:30
Wales v Australia, 14:30

due to the SH bashing themselves silly and causing injuries I think we might as well give up if we don't win over 25% of the games with the big three.

There should be a great deal of ambition to get some good results this Autumn. SH teams like Ozzies are suffering injuries, SA inconsistent, Argies are stretched and tired.

That said all the NH nations need to up their game, especially when facing the ABs. but as the Ozzies and Irish proved with their close results agains the Kiwis, they are not impossible to beat.

Wales should beat: Argentina and Samoa

50/50 with Australia. I think with better game plans and being at home we can beat Australia like we have shown we can in the past with weaker teams than what we have now. I always said before you can go down under and beat the SH teams away from home you need to beat them more often than not at home. Wales haven't done this so far but now is the time. You need to walk before you can run. A win over Australia will be huge for this current crop of players. To win against a SH nation will send their confidence sky high going into the 6N next year.

NZ 80/20 for me. They are by far better than any other team out there and have the psychological edge on Wales unfortunately. I go into this game always heart over head because you dream of that moment of beating the All Blacks and ending the that long run of not being able to beat them. But deep down, even if Wales play their best I still can't see us winning. Never say never though....

You realise in the article LINK in the OP that this year the Kiwis will have managed a decade un beaten in Europe.

Things have to change.

No they don't Maes, some of us are quite happy with the status quo

All the teams bar NZ will lose games....the All Blacks will have the only 100% record of any team North or South.

Ive got a cheeky feeling Ireland might go unbeaten this Autumn

I think the AB will continue their long run and prove to be unbeatable by NH, even 'away' in Europe. I see from what is posted above they are not meeting France

maestegmafia wrote:Ive got a cheeky feeling Ireland might go unbeaten this Autumn

Why didnt you vote that way then?

I think Ireland will beat SA, ARG and Fiji too. Mind you our B team is playing Fiji so you never know there.

GunsGerms wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:Ive got a cheeky feeling Ireland might go unbeaten this Autumn

Why didnt you vote that way then?

I think Ireland will beat SA, ARG and Fiji too. Mind you our B team is playing Fiji so you never know there.

Fiji weren the side they once were this summer. ireland B team should be good enough.

I havent voted yet.

England will probably beat Australia and Fiji and probably will just lose to SA and get comprehensively beaten by NZ.

I wouldnt be surprised if england put one over SA either really.

GunsGerms wrote:I wouldnt be surprised if england put one over SA either really.

English teams are going well in Europe, though we know that is not necessarily translated on to the international stage... Ireland and Wales being opposite but relevant example of teams either doing well Internationally or well in Club/Europe.

They should be looking to reinstate that forgotten fortress atmosphere at HQ. Select the right team and they might be able to do it. I don't think they will select the right team yet though. Maybe later in the next two years they'll get the mix right.

maestegmafia wrote:There should be a great deal of ambition to get some good results this Autumn. SH teams like Ozzies are suffering injuries, SA inconsistent, Argies are stretched and tired.

That said all the NH nations need to up their game, especially when facing the ABs. but as the Ozzies and Irish proved with their close results agains the Kiwis, they are not impossible to beat.

Ireland didn't win though, not sure how it proves you can beat them. Also Ozzie are a SH team, so their results are surely irrelevant.

The NH will win 5 tests, you can decide which

Biltong wrote:The NH will win 5 tests, you can decide which

That would be a pretty good result... I think we all expect the kiwis to go unbeaten, they look phenominally tough. But miracles do happen. If the Ozzies can draw with a heavily weakened team then there is hope considering home advantage and all.

GeordieFalcon wrote:All the teams bar NZ will lose games....the All Blacks will have the only 100% record of any team North or South.

You might be right, but that's not a big call since it's what usually happens in the Autumn.

Here's one possible narrative which gives the North some success while not sealing the deal.

In the first week, Ireland come out firing, still seething over the losses in New Zealand, and put one over South Africa who haven't settled well. Sexton runs a fly half master class. Celebrations in the home unions are short-lived as Argentina shock Wales in a kicking duel and the All Blacks smash Scotland. France defeat an out-of-sorts Australia to avenge their last heavy loss. England manage a win over Fiji with few headlines. Italy beat Tonga but no-one notices, even though there are two red cards in the match.

In the second week, Wales have a short turnaround to their Friday match against Samoa and the visitors grab a shock win against a naive Welsh side who, after misfiring against Argentina, try to run the ball more. France, fed up with people going on about their record against Argentina, take it out on the Pumas in another revenge win. England lose the breakdown against Australia but have more left in the tank in the last 20 minutes, and come out with their third consecutive win over the Wallabies. South Africa get back in the groove and power over Scotland who are running out of fit players. Newspapers suggest Dan Parks has been asked to consider an emergency return to duty. Italy wish they'd all been red-carded the week before as New Zealand win comfortably.

In the third week, England are riding high after the gritty win over Australia, and finally prevail in a bruising encounter against the Springboks. It's three out of three for Lancaster and the new dawn is being hailed. A bloodied and embarrased Welsh side, missing an injured Sam Warburton, finally put it all together and register a famous win over the All Blacks, the first loss for the Kiwis since they won the Cup. Italy then stun Australia up front and squeeze out a win, with the visitors let down by poor handling. Australia have now lost to five of the Six Nations sides in recent meetings. People are saying it's the worst weekend in the North for the Southern Hemisphere since the 2007 World Cup quarter finals. Scotland are victorious over Tonga but Ireland can't quite complete the clean sweep, drawing with Argentina despite outscoring the Pumas 3 tries to nil.

The home press is ectstatic. Wales are the real deal, say the headlines. Steve Hansen apparently left the ground without shaking the hands of his opposite number. Lancaster is hailed for his inclusive, team-building ethos. There's speculation that the expanded schedule in the South may have left the players drained and carying more injuries than usual. Stephen Jones predicts in the Sunday Times that no Southern Hemisphere side will ever again be able to win a Grand Slam tour of the Home Unions. We go into the last games with Wales looking to break their losing record against the Wallabies and England matching themselves against the World cup holders.

It's not pretty. England suffer a heavy home defeat to a rampant All Black side, desperate to make amends for their loss the week before. It's the largest winning margin for any top side in the Autumn Internationals. "We'll learn a lot from this," says a hollow-eyed Stuart Lancaster, "And come back stronger." Meanwhile, Wales inexplicably lose yet again to Australia. All the passion of the All Black game dissipates when Beale out-foxes the defence to set up two early tries. Wales have to play catch-up but are too over-eager and chances go begging. Cuthbert gets a late, great score, but Wales continue their unenviable series of defeats to the Wallabies.

I think if Wales fail to win their first two games then their will be serious heads on blocks...!

Most fans are baying for Howley to fail in dramatic fashion so it wouldn't take much to get rid of him.

South Africa and New Zealand will be unbeaten.

Ireland will realise that losing 60-0 to New Zealand was actually a high when they go zip from 3 against the Southernites.

Gatland will be sitting nonchalantly, with his hands in the air, wearing a "nothin to do with me, guv" expression as Argentina and Australia have their merry way with the miners.

England will be so..... England.

France? Merde, comme çi comme ça, et incroyable. Not sure of the order though.

I realy cannot see any NH team beating NZ in the Ais.

Of course we can stem the tide, all we need to do is play SA more who are creaking, and injure NZ/AUs player at every opportunity.

mowgli wrote:Of course we can stem the tide, all we need to do is play SA more who are creaking, and injure NZ/AUs player at every opportunity.

Now that's fightin' talk.

Can't wait.

Biltong wrote:Can't wait.

Oh I'd say you can, biltong. The AIs always end up being a bit of an anti-climax by the time they come round.

Pot Hale wrote:

Biltong wrote:Can't wait.

Oh I'd say you can, biltong. The AIs always end up being a bit of an anti-climax by the time they come round.

True, but then anticipation before the fact are far removed from reality, isn't it?

You'll see how the excitement builds over the next two weeks, supporters will go through waves of negativity and doubt, to talking their teams up and trying to convince themselves and back down again.

Fantastic stuff.

I'm still guessing at least one loss to the AB's. People expect them to keep winning up there largely because they have.

This year Ireland, SA and Oz all went close enough to be not too far wrong in being able to say "We should have won that"- each for different reasons.

Given that, if the Abs play close to the way they did in any of the 3, a loss is on the cards. I don't think the gap is a big as it was, particularly in viewing the error ridden match last week.

Still stick with England as being the most likely as they have the type of game we arent comfortable playing. We might be good at playing them, just not comfortable with it and the last AI's they were the only side where during the match I thought we might lose, even if the feeling wasnt there for long.

I agree. We cfould lose any of the games, even to Italy. Don't get me wrong I expect 4 wins. But the opportunity is there.

Scotland on a cold day, a narrow pitch and a sympathetic ref good go far against what is likely to be a B side, the same goes for Italy. England on their day, with a good penalty count will probably be there or their about. Even more so if they are allowed a very flat defence and to lie over the ball. Wales are a threat as well (If we get a huge penalty count like last time they have a big chance. the AB's struggle without the ball, and very, very flat defences. If sounds like I'm winging, or getting excuses in early I don't think I am. I'm pointing out that referees have a broad range of interpretations and that all these sides will probably need to be well and truely on the right side of the officials to have a realistic chance. Good thing for them is they are at home, and history tells us that some of them will be.

Hmm,the All Blacks struggle without the ball hardly they have won a lot of matches this season with less possession.I think it is unlikely they will be as inept again on tour.Boks creaking,with better goalkicking they would have picked up another couple of games this year.Australia at least forward look like something like there best team.Apparently Morne Steyn had a faultless game recently and found his goalkicking mojo be afraid,be very afraid ,he will be back.

Yeah, and then he totally flopped the next game.

England to beat Fiji, Australia and SA but lose to NZ. Ireland to beat Fiji and Argentina but lose to SA. Wales to beat Argentina and Fiji but lose to Australia and New Zealand. Scotland to beat Tonga and that's it.

Canelion, so the ABs can only lose to the ref then ?
(although I tend to agree with that)

Some very pessimistic vote up there... Will it really be another NH white wash buy SaNz and Oz

doubt it will be a whitewash Maes. Sa is bound to lose a match or even two. We always lose at least one. Australia isn't settled either, so I would expect much the same for them.

It is just NZ who should go through unscathed.

Some NH nations give the SH far too much respect (and I mean in a sporting way) and build themselves up to a loss before the game has even happened.

This needs to change otherwise it'll just be a bunch of close, plucky defeats again.

Having said that a few of the home nations have won against Aus in the SH recently so those sides should be confident of doing it again at home.

SA will be tough, but definitely beatable. NZ will be that much tougher but still a chance if one NH side can play an error-free game.

As an English fan I'm glad the opponents get increasingly difficult, hopefully allowing us to build up a head of steam (while not getting too many injuries).

Ireland will beat SA again and I will be there to witness it. Thats all I know.

Shame we will have to do it without Robnoxious at 15.

GunsGerms wrote:Ireland will beat SA again and I will be there to witness it. Thats all I know.

Shame we will have to do it without Robnoxious at 15.

you hope Guns.

I know it Biltong.

I thought winning at home was easy, so surely a clean sweep for the NH sides? If they want to have any hope of winning the RWC anyway?

anotherworldofpain wrote:I thought winning at home was easy, so surely a clean sweep for the NH sides? If they want to have any hope of winning the RWC anyway?

Yes I think Ireland will do a clean sweap. They have a better recent head to head record against all opponents so why not?

AWOP.. relax, no baiting now, ABs will regretfully get a clean sweep. England willing but not yet ready to beat the ABs. and I understand ABs will not be visiting France .

ABs are beatable so you never know but I can see Oz losing at least a couple and SA will definitely lose to Ireland.

You said that last time too.

It's Ireland's best chance ever Biltong, and we agree that Wales on their day can beat anybody. The English too, will fight it out to the end and never give in, and the plucky Scotts can never be written off...

Why is it their best chance ever AWOP?

Biltong wrote:Why is it their best chance ever AWOP?

Ireland were unbeaten in '09.

That was a great year for Ireland, wasn"t it?

Biltong wrote:You said that last time too.

Its ok to be wrong every 1 in 5 times.

AWOP
and you also forgot to mention those lousy NH referees who just do not understand NZ rugby laws and will cost the ABs what would have been an otherwise certain victory