Can Europe stem the Southern tide...?

by maestegmafia Wed 24 Oct 2012, 10:55 am

First topic message reminder :

Great article from ESPN..! Extracts below..

So well established is the autumn international programme in rugby's contemporary calendar that it comes as a shock to recall that, like the Heineken Cup, it is less than 20 years old and a product of the game's professional era.

The forces that got all of the southern hemisphere's giants visiting most years were those which dominated the somewhat panicky years of the new settlement - a desperate search for new income with which to fund vastly increased costs. Only an extended international programme could be counted upon to do that.

So it is that when autumn matches resume this month after their World Cup year sabbatical in 2011, fans in Europe will be able to see not only the Boks, All Blacks and Wallabies, but the Pumas, Fiji and Samoa.

As so often with historical statistics, the breathtaking element is the dominance of the All Blacks. Over the entire period, their winning record as an away team against the Five Nations has been 82.96%.

http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/story/171574.html

So what are the chances? Can any Northern Hemisphere teams upset the form book this time??

by GunsGerms Thu 25 Oct 2012, 1:35 pm

Biltong wrote:That was a great year for Ireland, wasn"t it?

Best year in my lifetime.

by **Biltong** Thu 25 Oct 2012, 1:36 pm

GunsGerms wrote:
Biltong wrote:You said that last time too.

Its ok to be wrong every 1 in 5 times.

Or 2

by anotherworldofpain Thu 25 Oct 2012, 1:37 pm

Biltong wrote:Why is it their best chance ever AWOP?

You didn't notice the trend Biltong? It's like clockwork.

by **Biltong** Thu 25 Oct 2012, 1:38 pm

anotherworldofpain wrote:
Biltong wrote:Why is it their best chance ever AWOP?

You didn't notice the trend Biltong? It's like clockwork.

Nope, what trend?

by anotherworldofpain Thu 25 Oct 2012, 1:44 pm

Trend Biltong?

Well, let's look at the last series just as an example:

FIRST TEST

http://www.rugbyrugby.com/news/by_country/ireland/7003662/kearney__this_is_our_best_chance

"(Eden Park) is our best chance because it is our next chance. And if the first Test doesn't go our way then the one after that will be our best chance again after that," hKearney told PA Sport."

SECOND TEST
http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/our-experts/7116826/Ireland-miss-best-chance-to-beat-All-Blacks

" OPINION: The Irish just missed their best chance to beat the All Blacks.
I suspect it will be a very focussed New Zealand team that runs out in Hamilton next Saturday, determined to make amends for their sloppy 22-19 win in Christchurch."

THIRD TEST

http://www.nzsportslife.com/2012/06/rugby-irelands-best-chance-of-topping.html

"A very raw looking All Blacks side has been named to face Ireland in the third test in Hamilton on Saturday evening and it gives Ireland its best opportunity in 107 years "

As far as I can work out, it's always their best chance. Or maybe some poetic turn of phrase. I've never watched an Ireland game in which SOMEBODY hasn't said "It's our best chance".

by **Biltong** Thu 25 Oct 2012, 1:55 pm

anotherworldofpain wrote:Trend Biltong?

Well, let's look at the last series just as an example:

FIRST TEST

http://www.rugbyrugby.com/news/by_country/ireland/7003662/kearney__this_is_our_best_chance

"(Eden Park) is our best chance because it is our next chance. And if the first Test doesn't go our way then the one after that will be our best chance again after that," hKearney told PA Sport."

SECOND TEST
http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/our-experts/7116826/Ireland-miss-best-chance-to-beat-All-Blacks

" OPINION: The Irish just missed their best chance to beat the All Blacks.
I suspect it will be a very focussed New Zealand team that runs out in Hamilton next Saturday, determined to make amends for their sloppy 22-19 win in Christchurch."

THIRD TEST

http://www.nzsportslife.com/2012/06/rugby-irelands-best-chance-of-topping.html

"A very raw looking All Blacks side has been named to face Ireland in the third test in Hamilton on Saturday evening and it gives Ireland its best opportunity in 107 years "

As far as I can work out, it's always their best chance. Or maybe some poetic turn of phrase. I've never watched an Ireland game in which SOMEBODY hasn't said "It's our best chance".

Thanks for the explanation, it all makes sense now. thumbsup

by SecretFly Thu 25 Oct 2012, 1:59 pm

So?

That's just fact. Your next game is always your next best chance to change history. Opinion won't change that fact. Sniggering self-important ridicule won't change that fact. Kearney was just stating fact in the creative way most people use English, but some never get.

He didn't say "we'll win next time" - he said the next one down the line will always be our next best chance until it finally happens and the win comes.

So we want no-hope teams to just not show up if the knowledgeable critics suggest they'll never win? Just don't show up? Take your beating on the tour bus or in your hotel room? Don't go to the stadiums and actually try?

The 'logic' displayed on these threads is sometimes right is off the wall.

by **Biltong** Thu 25 Oct 2012, 2:00 pm

SecretFly wrote:So?

That's just fact. Your next game is always your next best chance to change history. Opinion won't change that fact. Sniggering self-important ridicule won't change that fact. Kearney was just stating fact in the creative way most people use English, but some never get.

He didn't say "we'll win next time" - he said the next one down the line will always be our next best chance until it finally happens and the win comes.

So we want no-hope teams to just not show up if the knowledgeable critics suggest they'll never win? Just don't show up? Take your beating on the tour bus or in your hotel room? Don't go to the stadiums and actually try?

The 'logic' displayed on these threads is sometimes right is off the wall.

The opposite is also true, it is also our best chance.

by gregortree Thu 25 Oct 2012, 2:01 pm

It is the best chance because.....

NH referees have never before been this bad at understanding NZ rugby.

by GunsGerms Thu 25 Oct 2012, 2:03 pm

Biltong wrote:
GunsGerms wrote:
Biltong wrote:You said that last time too.

Its ok to be wrong every 1 in 5 times.
Or 2

You wish.

by GunsGerms Thu 25 Oct 2012, 2:04 pm

SecretFly wrote:So?

That's just fact. Your next game is always your next best chance to change history. Opinion won't change that fact. Sniggering self-important ridicule won't change that fact. Kearney was just stating fact in the creative way most people use English, but some never get.

He didn't say "we'll win next time" - he said the next one down the line will always be our next best chance until it finally happens and the win comes.

So we want no-hope teams to just not show up if the knowledgeable critics suggest they'll never win? Just don't show up? Take your beating on the tour bus or in your hotel room? Don't go to the stadiums and actually try?

The 'logic' displayed on these threads is sometimes right is off the wall.

You are better off talking to the wall than AWOP.

by SecretFly Thu 25 Oct 2012, 2:06 pm

Biltong wrote:
SecretFly wrote:So?

That's just fact. Your next game is always your next best chance to change history. Opinion won't change that fact. Sniggering self-important ridicule won't change that fact. Kearney was just stating fact in the creative way most people use English, but some never get.

He didn't say "we'll win next time" - he said the next one down the line will always be our next best chance until it finally happens and the win comes.

So we want no-hope teams to just not show up if the knowledgeable critics suggest they'll never win? Just don't show up? Take your beating on the tour bus or in your hotel room? Don't go to the stadiums and actually try?

The 'logic' displayed on these threads is sometimes right is off the wall.
The opposite is also true, it is also our best chance.

There is no opposite. Just the truth that any side who need to get one up on a side that have defeated them once, twice or sixty times - their next best chance of changing that is the next time they meet. A player says it and it's a funny farm straitjacket for him from the folks-that-know-their-rugby? There is no opposite only the common truth that your next best chance is your next game.

by **Biltong** Thu 25 Oct 2012, 2:08 pm

SecretFly wrote:
Biltong wrote:
SecretFly wrote:So?

That's just fact. Your next game is always your next best chance to change history. Opinion won't change that fact. Sniggering self-important ridicule won't change that fact. Kearney was just stating fact in the creative way most people use English, but some never get.

He didn't say "we'll win next time" - he said the next one down the line will always be our next best chance until it finally happens and the win comes.

So we want no-hope teams to just not show up if the knowledgeable critics suggest they'll never win? Just don't show up? Take your beating on the tour bus or in your hotel room? Don't go to the stadiums and actually try?

The 'logic' displayed on these threads is sometimes right is off the wall.
The opposite is also true, it is also our best chance.

There is no opposite. Just the truth that any side who need to get one up on a side that have defeated them once, twice or sixty times - their next best chance of changing that is the next time they meet. A player says it and it's a funny farm straitjacket for him from the folks-that-know-their-rugby? Their is no opposite only the common truth that your next best chance is your next game.

Hence we agree. Hug

by anotherworldofpain Thu 25 Oct 2012, 2:11 pm

SecretFly wrote:So?

That's just fact. Your next game is always your next best chance to change history. Opinion won't change that fact. Sniggering self-important ridicule won't change that fact...

I wasn't sniggering.

by anotherworldofpain Thu 25 Oct 2012, 2:12 pm

I might have had a wry smile

by anotherworldofpain Thu 25 Oct 2012, 2:12 pm

And been want to the occassional cackle.

Though.

by SecretFly Thu 25 Oct 2012, 2:13 pm

GunsGerms wrote:

You are better off talking to the wall than AWOP.

Oh I know all about pain. He'll have his views (his right)...

by anotherworldofpain Thu 25 Oct 2012, 2:15 pm

I contest the logic though.

Your best chance may have been historical, that you missed. You might have been likely to win in 1998, but not quite managed. You might be less likely to win in the next game because you have many injuries/poor coach/lack talent.

Ireland's best chance isn't always the next game on this basis, it is the next opportunity, but we shouldn't confuse those two very different propositions.

by SecretFly Thu 25 Oct 2012, 2:33 pm

anotherworldofpain wrote:I contest the logic though.

Your best chance may have been historical, that you missed. You might have been likely to win in 1998, but not quite managed. You might be less likely to win in the next game because you have many injuries/poor coach/lack talent.

Ireland's best chance isn't always the next game on this basis, it is the next opportunity, but we shouldn't confuse those two very different propositions.

The future is the only thing you can change. Chance has nothing to do with history. If you've lost in the past, you've lost. History, thinking about it, mulling over it, crying about it - is bunk.

The best chance you'll ever have is being on the field, in the moment, in the present, playing. Being there is the chance - no injury or poor coach or anything else will change the fact that when you are out there with 80 minutes of realtime at your disposal, that is the chance you have and nobody can foresee what way it will go. They can predict, they can provide good guesses but nobody knows.

Opportunity (having the right players and coaching infrastructure) is not a different prospect - its as much presumption based on theory as is the idea of chance. Opportunity has no more solidity in conspiring to bring about an actual win than chance has.

By the way - correct me if I'm wrong but who has come closest to ABs since the Summer? Australia - once - with its draw...and...next closest?

by anotherworldofpain Thu 25 Oct 2012, 2:54 pm

SecretFly wrote:
By the way - correct me if I'm wrong but who has come closest to ABs since the Summer? Australia - once - with its draw...and...next closest?

Yes, they may have missed their best chance SF...

by SecretFly Thu 25 Oct 2012, 3:13 pm

The anti-crud Kidney future is out there, pain. Wink

by Luckless Pedestrian Thu 25 Oct 2012, 3:46 pm

maestegmafia wrote:Most fans are baying for Howley to fail in dramatic fashion

I haven't heard a single Welshman say he wants Wales under Howley to lose.

Also, it's Aussies, not Ozzies.

by GunsGerms Thu 25 Oct 2012, 5:27 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:Most fans are baying for Howley to fail in dramatic fashion

I haven't heard a single Welshman say he wants Wales under Howley to lose.

Also, it's Aussies, not Ozzies.

Technically neither are real words.

by mowgli Thu 25 Oct 2012, 5:43 pm

I don't think any Welsh fan wants Howley to fail as to do so would mean Wales have failed, however I don't think many Welsh fans have confidence in him. Many believe he presided over a losing tour down under due to selections but the fact is we lost the tour because of our decision making and kicking, and more than anything, no Jamie Roberts as we have become too dependant on his route 1 ball carrying which he excels at. In some ways Howley carried the can for that failure at a time when Wales were in the ascendancy and were primed for success, a change of management must have affected performances and i think, perhaps unfairly, Howley was marked out as the villain. All this being said I have no confidence in him myself and feel that the WRU are playing with fire over this in order to accomodate Gatland's ambition. I hoep we don't all find ourselves regretting it in 2015 but fear we will.

by maestegmafia Fri 26 Oct 2012, 10:30 am

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:Most fans are baying for Howley to fail in dramatic fashion

I haven't heard a single Welshman say he wants Wales under Howley to lose.

Maybe not in those literal words but you and many others slate him at every opportunity with little reason in my opinion.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Also, it's Aussies, not Ozzies.

It's Aussies, Ozzies, bazzers, Crow Eaters, Sand Groppers, Ockers, Diggers, bushies, mate there are a few thousand nicknames for them. I lived in Sydney for nearly a decade, I've heard them all.

by nobbled Fri 26 Oct 2012, 12:47 pm

Got my tickets for the England Aus game - so please please can we win that one?

by Luckless Pedestrian Fri 26 Oct 2012, 12:58 pm

Maes, I object to Rob Howley being interim head coach of the national side because he's coached no one else in his life. Also, considering the players he has at his disposal, I don't think he's been great as backs coach.

Neither of those things mean I want Wales to lose!

by nobbled Fri 26 Oct 2012, 1:03 pm

It's nice for the Welsh fans to have an excuse for losing already in place - just in case they need it! clap

Not sure who I'm blaming for England'd potential failure yet - probably Owen Farrell for being young and the son of a coach. Headscratch

by GunsGerms Fri 26 Oct 2012, 1:40 pm

I have been very impressed with the Farrells. Both seem to be doing a good job and an asset to English rugby. I was sceptical about Andy Farrell as he is a league man and his union career was less than impressive mainly because he was in the twilight of his career. However, since becoming a coach and in particular England backs coach England's backs have been reinvigorated to a level not seen since '03. He is now believe it or not a real contender for the Lion's backs coaching position. I think he will get it.

Owen Farrell for me has looked good too every time he has played for England and has shown he can adapt and handle the pressure of international rugby. Respect to the Farrells.

by maestegmafia Fri 26 Oct 2012, 2:24 pm

nobbled wrote:It's nice for the Welsh fans to have an excuse for losing already in place - just in case they need it!

Not sure who I'm blaming for England'd potential failure yet - probably Owen Farrell for being young and the son of a coach.

Not all of us are awarding a scape goat. I think Howley is a good coach, the responsibility of not the result is far more down to the players decisions rather than the coaches in my opinion.

by Luckless Pedestrian Fri 26 Oct 2012, 2:47 pm

But the coaches are responsible for the tactics, would you agree with that?

by maestegmafia Fri 26 Oct 2012, 4:04 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:But the coaches are responsible for the tactics, would you agree with that?

The coaches are responsible for comprising analysis on opposition and discussing with players the way forward. They would suggest tactical concepts but it is only the players that can execute it.

For example throughout the six nations of 2011 Wales backline didn't fire, we changed fly halves scrum halves and still struggled to get the mix.

One of the reasons was Howley had been, correctly asking the backs to line up in a steeper formation than the flat way they were playing at the regions. By the RWC warm up games they had adhered to Howley's suggestion, suddenly we look potent in attack.

More time training with wales, or using a unified style throughout the regions would help Welsh rugby.

by SecretFly Fri 26 Oct 2012, 4:32 pm

maestegmafia wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:But the coaches are responsible for the tactics, would you agree with that?

The coaches are responsible for comprising analysis on opposition and discussing with players the way forward. They would suggest tactical concepts but it is only the players that can execute it.

For example throughout the six nations of 2011 Wales backline didn't fire, we changed fly halves scrum halves and still struggled to get the mix.

One of the reasons was Howley had been, correctly asking the backs to line up in a steeper formation than the flat way they were playing at the regions. By the RWC warm up games they had adhered to Howley's suggestion, suddenly we look potent in attack.

More time training with wales, or using a unified style throughout the regions would help Welsh rugby.

That's tactics and that's a coach working, maesteg...surely?

by maestegmafia Fri 26 Oct 2012, 5:57 pm

SecretFly wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:But the coaches are responsible for the tactics, would you agree with that?

The coaches are responsible for comprising analysis on opposition and discussing with players the way forward. They would suggest tactical concepts but it is only the players that can execute it.

For example throughout the six nations of 2011 Wales backline didn't fire, we changed fly halves scrum halves and still struggled to get the mix.

One of the reasons was Howley had been, correctly asking the backs to line up in a steeper formation than the flat way they were playing at the regions. By the RWC warm up games they had adhered to Howley's suggestion, suddenly we look potent in attack.

More time training with wales, or using a unified style throughout the regions would help Welsh rugby.

That's tactics and that's a coach working, maesteg...surely?

Thats an example players getting it wrong, then applying the backs coaches concepts and getting it right. The example proves that the coaches might be telling players what they should be doing to make things work, and the players don't necessarily adhere advice.

coaches cant be blamed for what happens on the pitch, they are not as culpable as posters on here give them credit for.

by **Rugby Fan** Mon 19 Nov 2012, 8:26 am

Here's how I imagined the first two rounds might go (from a post earlier in this thread):

Rugby Fan wrote:In the first week, Ireland come out firing, still seething over the losses in New Zealand, and put one over South Africa who haven't settled well. Sexton runs a fly half master class. Celebrations in the home unions are short-lived as Argentina shock Wales in a kicking duel and the All Blacks smash Scotland. France defeat an out-of-sorts Australia to avenge their last heavy loss. England manage a win over Fiji with few headlines. Italy beat Tonga but no-one notices, even though there are two red cards in the match.

In the second week, Wales have a short turnaround to their Friday match against Samoa and the visitors grab a shock win against a naive Welsh side who, after misfiring against Argentina, try to run the ball more. France, fed up with people going on about their record against Argentina, take it out on the Pumas in another revenge win. England lose the breakdown against Australia but have more left in the tank in the last 20 minutes, and come out with their third consecutive win over the Wallabies. South Africa get back in the groove and power over Scotland who are running out of fit players....Italy wish they'd all been red-carded the week before as New Zealand win comfortably.

I overestimated Ireland & England, while insulting Italy & Tonga, but one wrong result in each week is a bit better than tossing a coin. If that run or luck holds next week (and I'm certainly not confident it will) then the North might be in for some better news. This is what I went on to envisage:

Rugby Fan wrote:In the third week, England are riding high after the gritty win over Australia [sic], and finally prevail in a bruising encounter against the Springboks...A bloodied and embarrased Welsh side, missing an injured Sam Warburton, finally put it all together and register a famous win over the All Blacks, the first loss for the Kiwis since they won the Cup. Italy then stun Australia up front and squeeze out a win, with the visitors let down by poor handling... Scotland are victorious over Tonga but Ireland can't quite complete the clean sweep, drawing with Argentina despite outscoring the Pumas 3 tries to nil.

by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler Mon 19 Nov 2012, 8:30 am

maestegmafia wrote:
SecretFly wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:But the coaches are responsible for the tactics, would you agree with that?

The coaches are responsible for comprising analysis on opposition and discussing with players the way forward. They would suggest tactical concepts but it is only the players that can execute it.

For example throughout the six nations of 2011 Wales backline didn't fire, we changed fly halves scrum halves and still struggled to get the mix.

One of the reasons was Howley had been, correctly asking the backs to line up in a steeper formation than the flat way they were playing at the regions. By the RWC warm up games they had adhered to Howley's suggestion, suddenly we look potent in attack.

More time training with wales, or using a unified style throughout the regions would help Welsh rugby.

That's tactics and that's a coach working, maesteg...surely?

Thats an example players getting it wrong, then applying the backs coaches concepts and getting it right. The example proves that the coaches might be telling players what they should be doing to make things work, and the players don't necessarily adhere advice.

coaches cant be blamed for what happens on the pitch, they are not as culpable as posters on here give them credit for.

If the players cant deliver the gameplan shouldnt they be dropped/replaced for ones who can? If they arent isnt that the coaches fault? If the coach doesnt have the respect of the players to the point where they can follow simple instructions isnt that a failing of both?
Quite how a player could get to international level without being capable of following an instruction like "line up 2 foot behind the guy next to you" I dont know.

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