Ulster v Leinster Friday 21st December

First topic message reminder :

Back to Rabo Pro 12 action this weekend at Ravenhill when we host our nearest and dearest neighbours, the Boys in Blue.

Ulster's unbeaten run has ended but they are still in prime position in both league and Cup competitions...for now. Leinster have had a more mixed bag in both competitions so far but have by far the better record in this head to head battle.

Both teams have fresh injuries from their HEC matches at the weekend as well as longer term absences of significant personel.

Who is coming up to Belfast for the game? What kind of teams will the coaches put out? Who will be available?

The match has been sold out for quite a while so if you don't have your mitts on a ticket you'd better be near a telly come 7pm.

The Teams

Ulster

J Payne;
A Trimble,
D Cave,
L Marshall,
C Gilroy;
P Jackson,
R Pienaar;
------------
(1-8):
T Court,
R Best,
J Afoa,
I Henderson,
N McComb,
R Diack,
C Henry (c)
N Williams;
------------
Replacements (16-23):
R Herring,
C Black,
A Macklin,
A O'Connor,
R Wilson,
P Marshall,
P Wallace,
A D'Arcy.



LEINSTER:

15:Noel Reid
14: Andrew Conway
13: Brendan Macken
12: Gordon D'Arcy
11: Fergus McFadden
10: Ian Madigan
9: Eoin Reddan

1: Cian Healy
2: Sean Cronin
3: Michael Bent
4: Leo Cullen CAPTAIN
5: Devin Toner
6: Kevin McLaughlin
7: Sean O'Brien
8: Jamie Heaslip

REPLACEMENTS:

16: Aaron Dundon
17: Heinke van der Merwe
18: Jamie Hagan
19: Tom Denton
20: Rhys Ruddock
21: Isaac Boss
22: Andrew Goodman
23: Adam Byrne

Notch wrote:Fitzgerald is done, they just haven't called it yet. He'll be doing very well to come back.

Macken and O'Malley are decent, but thats all. They don't have the same class they once did in those positions.

That's speculation on your part that you are trying to pass off as fact.

Rumour is that he is close to signing a new deal. His current one only goes to next month.

As I said this rumour not fact. I'm sure they are being very careful with him as it was a neck injury.

Remember they said Darce was finished after three operations on his arm several years ago. A GS and 3 HC medals in the ar$e pocket ain't bad for a guy who is finished.

No, I'm not trying to pass it off as fact.

Well done Ulster btw. They bossed the game. We looked like we weren't up for it really. Standing off in defence. Shyte linespeed. Getting turned over in the ruck a lot.

Surprised to read some of the posts in this thread saying we were doing well.

To me (On half way on the prom) it looked like we were hanging on for dear life, even when we were ahead.

Haven't seen the game on TV yet. Ended up in a pub (aptly) named Jenny Watts in Bangor. The only 2 Leinster fans in the village. Great crack we had.

I think a few of the Ulster fans were shocked to see us so deep in their terrat'ry.

Notch wrote:No, I'm not trying to pass it off as fact.

The bold bit looks extremely like a statement of fact to me. Not being arsey. Just there is no "I wonder if" or "I hope I'm wrong, but it looks to me like"

I think he'll come back at least once, but really I have in the same camp as Stephen Ferris who I also think will have to retire early, so if I'm thinking were will Ulster be in 2/3 years I certainly don't include him. You plan for a future without him. You do not include him in your long term planning. It pays to be pessimistic because if you're wrong, he's battling it out for a place with the guy you brought in to replace him. If you back him to come back and you're wrong, you're short.

He may come back, but until they can say this is the date he's coming back and the problem has been resolved any appearances he makes should be considered a bonus.

Agree 100% with Jen - I thought a number of the Leinster stalwarts looked like they didn't want to be there.

There was a shot that the director held for a while, after the scrum before the penalty try went down. Diack was frantically gesturing to the touch judge that Healy was going to ground. Healy looked at the judge as if he was about to say something, stopped and just paced about, looking vaguely panicked. Told the story of the game right there.

Madigan comprehensively outplayed Jackson, but I thought senior players like Healy, Cullen, Darcy, Toner, Reddan were all second best.

And Jen, you were quite right about the back row - om nom nom nom nom indeed. The Leinster boys were chewed up and spat out, particularly in the first half, at the breakdown. Ulster seemed to be able to poach their ball with impunity for a while (although I think every opportunity was squandered). O'Brien had one or two decent incursions, but also did a fair bit of standing round watching the game unfold. Heaslip I didn't notice at all.

It's the first time in some years I've seen Leinster lack self-belief.

Ulster weren't all that. Cave, Gilroy and Payne all pretty quiet (albeit the first two were sick and doubts for the game, and hadn't trained during the week). They were very nervous to begin with. Hopefully we'll kick on from here.

As an aside, Pienaar and Trimble must be, respectively, the charge-down and interception kings of Europe.

Since he was dropped for the Argentina game Trimble is going great guns, even before Bowe was injured he was the best of the three wingers. I'd say he'll be back on the wing first game of the Six Nations. Probably the right wing which suits him better.

Notch those blond highlights have helped him out greatly, distract other defenders and help him fit into the whole boyband look Ulster are going for.....

It will depend on the HEC games and also on the availability of Kearney. Zebo will start somewhere IMO. Much more interesting is the Marshall/D'arcy debate. If Luke can force his way into the ulster team then it might be the push Deccie needs.

I thought O'Brien was trying his heart out. Flew into a couple of rucks (not always legally) out of complete frustration but we tackled really well. Heaslip was really poor though.

Thomond!!!

I sincerely hope you are not trying to suggest that any of Ulster fine Backs division would stoop so low as to get their hair highlighted?????



Except,

http://www.ulsterrugby.com/images/news/PaddyWallace2_Cardiff.jpg

and

http://www.pinnacle-online.com/items/news/darren_cave.jpg

Maybe it's the glorious Ravenhill floodlights that are giving Andrew a blondish hue but there is something more noticeable about his hair anyway.

This is Andrew last Friday, celebrating his superb try

Spoiler:

This is Andrew last February

Spoiler:

Yes I know it was pretty sad for me to look this up!

Notch completely disagree with the summary of our centres and of Fitz.

I think all the provinces (and the national team) have got really annoying like that: being really secretive about injuries for instance on Monday someone is fine and then come Friday we hear that he hasn't trained all week due to X. Leinster at the moment are the worst for it because the injuries are so long and guys like BOD are giving different estimations to what the clubs are saying. It p!sses me off a bit but I can see why they do it.

Locks, completely agree. I was a huge Toner fan this time last year and was annoyed Thorn was called in. He was having great games against Bath in the HCup and Munster in the Rabo. He is only 26 so has plenty of time to develop but currently he is not the answer for Leinster. We do however have many more NIQ spots than the other provinces and VDM is leaving too so there is another one too.

I can see us making a big signing and Toner will have to make do with Rabo games for another season or more. Beirne will start challenging him too. I think it is safe to say that Cullen is absolutely boll!xed. Browne is pretty much the same.

Centres: Firstly I don't believe Fitz is out and think you are exceptionally presumptuous unless you have information that you can't/aren't telling the forum.

Either way maybe Fitz will end up as a wing also and not be touched in the centre. He was started there during the RWC with EOM at 13 and it looked great to me. Macken is an option but has growing to do and definitely isn't as far on his development as the likes of McSharry or Marshall. McFadden could well be moved inside again, I can see that happening myself.

Also there is the option of bringing in an NIE, not ideal IMO but that could very easily.

Lock options are terrifying I think but centre should be ok in a few years although there could be a gap of a year

You don't believe he's injured? Relax. I'm just offering an opinion.

You need an NIE centre and lock. You're analysis of the centres for Leinster is a bit rose tinted. They'll still have good centres yes, but I'm saying they won't have the world class players they've had for the past number of years.

I still think Leinster will be up there in the Top 10 sides in Europe, I'm just saying the players they have coming through seem unlikely to keep them as undisputed top dogs.

Notch wrote:You don't believe he's injured? Relax. I'm just offering an opinion.

You need an NIE centre and lock. You're analysis of the centres for Leinster is a bit rose tinted. They'll still have good centres yes, but I'm saying they won't have the world class players they've had for the past number of years.

I still think Leinster will be up there in the Top 10 sides in Europe, I'm just saying the players they have coming through seem unlikely to keep them as undisputed top dogs.

Ah, been downgraded from a fact then?

the Leinster squad update wrote:Luke Fitzgerald continues to make positive strides in his recuperation and the Ireland back will train fully with the squad this week. If he doesn’t make Saturday’s clash it is hoped that he will be in contention for the trip to Edinburgh in the next round of PRO12 matches.

I know these have not been so reliable lately, but this looks OK.

Notch wrote:You don't believe he's injured? Relax. I'm just offering an opinion.

You need an NIE centre and lock. You're analysis of the centres for Leinster is a bit rose tinted. They'll still have good centres yes, but I'm saying they won't have the world class players they've had for the past number of years.

I still think Leinster will be up there in the Top 10 sides in Europe, I'm just saying the players they have coming through seem unlikely to keep them as undisputed top dogs.

Can't disagree with that but then if anyone though we could dominate Europe like we have been indefinitely they were delusional.That kind of run isn't sustainable at club level when other teams have the ability to sign top class players to strengthen areas of weakness in their teams/squads.

asoreleftshoulder wrote:

Notch wrote:You don't believe he's injured? Relax. I'm just offering an opinion.

You need an NIE centre and lock. You're analysis of the centres for Leinster is a bit rose tinted. They'll still have good centres yes, but I'm saying they won't have the world class players they've had for the past number of years.

I still think Leinster will be up there in the Top 10 sides in Europe, I'm just saying the players they have coming through seem unlikely to keep them as undisputed top dogs.

Can't disagree with that but then if anyone though we could dominate Europe like we have been indefinitely they were delusional.That kind of run isn't sustainable at club level when other teams have the ability to sign top class players to strengthen areas of weakness in their teams/squads.

Great point. Thats why I can't understand why the French think they are at a disadvantage. They have over 30 million to spend on squads and don't have to worrie about the amount of foreign players they have or have to rest certain players at certain times.

Notch wrote:You don't believe he's injured? Relax. I'm just offering an opinion.

You need an NIE centre and lock. You're analysis of the centres for Leinster is a bit rose tinted. They'll still have good centres yes, but I'm saying they won't have the world class players they've had for the past number of years.

I still think Leinster will be up there in the Top 10 sides in Europe, I'm just saying the players they have coming through seem unlikely to keep them as undisputed top dogs.

I understand you are offering an opinion I am just disagreeing with it. I fully believe he is injured but I don't think I will believe many of the Leinster injury updates about when people are coming back until I see them on the pitch.

I fully agree that in the centre there will be a gap before certain guys come of age/mature/get more top level experience and in that time I think we have the space for NIE signings if needed.

I think we will be in the top 7 or so for a long time but I understand that after such an amazing run there had to be time where we couldn't continue to keep up those high standards

I think Fitz does fall into the 'Fez' category regarding injuries. If they are around then super but the reality is plans have to be made without them. Ferris wasnt even looking that great in the couple of games he started this season. He was ok, but he just wasnt what we expect. Fitz will most likely be in the same boat having played so little rugby.

We are incredibly blessed mind you with the talent we have coming in to replace them. As regards leinsters succession planning i do think Schmidt felt this group (D'arcy, BOD, Cullen, Ross, Reddan/Boss) could have given them one last crack at the HEC. Injuries have played their part as well but i think he is 6 months out in his evaluation. That said 3 HEC's isnt a bad return for when you are top dog and what he does next season (he is still at leinster isnt he?) will be massively interesting.

I don't know where all this Ferris stuff is coming from. His knees are bollixt. Luke has had several different injuries in different places. plus a lack of form which he came back from.

he may be injury prone and one of them may prematurely end his carreer. but as it stands that is not the case.

Jen

No offense but Fez has played more rugby than him in the last 18months so i think there are seriously valid concerns over his fitness. ferris isnt just his knees either. He is currently out with ankle issues and previously it was a broken bone in his face after an ihumph tackle in training iirc. They are both seriously injury prone.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:I don't know where all this Ferris stuff is coming from. His knees are bollixt. Luke has had several different injuries in different places. plus a lack of form which he came back from.

he may be injury prone and one of them may prematurely end his carreer. but as it stands that is not the case.

When did he come back from this poor form? He was left out of the WC squad despite being a Kidney favourite, played a couple of matches then got injured again.

Artful_Dodger wrote:

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:I don't know where all this Ferris stuff is coming from. His knees are bollixt. Luke has had several different injuries in different places. plus a lack of form which he came back from.

he may be injury prone and one of them may prematurely end his carreer. but as it stands that is not the case.

When did he come back from this poor form? He was left out of the WC squad despite being a Kidney favourite, played a couple of matches then got injured again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ept4C0RfQs 2 tries in this.

But only last April 2 mins into this one. Try of the Hcup last season. Who made it? Lukey Fitz.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbTtWEOdVrE

I think everyone is expressing concern about whether it is likely that Fitzgerald will be able to return to anywhere near his best after such a horrible run of injuries.

You can't reall blame folk for thinking that, can you?

I am sure that everyone of the people who feel that way would be absolutely delighted to be proven wrong.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

Notch wrote:You don't believe he's injured? Relax. I'm just offering an opinion.

You need an NIE centre and lock. You're analysis of the centres for Leinster is a bit rose tinted. They'll still have good centres yes, but I'm saying they won't have the world class players they've had for the past number of years.

I still think Leinster will be up there in the Top 10 sides in Europe, I'm just saying the players they have coming through seem unlikely to keep them as undisputed top dogs.

Ah, been downgraded from a fact then?

You're usually quite a reasonable poster so I'm just going to assume you're having a bad day and leave it at that.

Anyway, this was the highlight for me.

https://youtu.be/EuK1XPZP9lA?t=37m49s

Nick Williams back to doing what he does best. Cullen and Toner bounced.

Marshall stopping O'Brien dead at 1hr 12mins was a big plus for me. Killed momentum. Didnt realise at the time it was Seanie.

Standulstermen wrote:Marshall stopping O'Brien dead at 1hr 12mins was a big plus for me. Killed momentum. Didnt realise at the time it was Seanie.

+1 As a Leinster fan (that says a lot)

Its great being a Leinster fan.

I think it is. Winning all the time is over rated and doesn't make you very popular. The next logical step is to turn on the style, become the flair Irish team.

Ulster lads, where would you consider your weakness to be or do you have any?

ps: that clip of the Bath game shows how good Fitz is and also a good example of what McFadden can do at 12

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PT35orm5-SE&feature=youtube_gdata_player

here's a better look. still gives me the orn this one.

if we could just get these players on the pitch together for a run of games.

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Ulster lads, where would you consider your weakness to be or do you have any?

outhalf.

not too pushed on Daren Cave either. he is a very decent player but not top class.

otherwise their squad is great this year. but more than that they are really playing for eachother as a team.

Paddy does tend to make some howlers every so often but overall is very good. I think his kicking game from hand and floor can just go missing at times. He does put a fair few out on the full

I know I am talking about Luke Marshall a lot but I don't care! Watching the game back and his off the ball work is amazing.

There have been a number of examples where he has run a really hard dummy line and then been back looking for the offload and if that is not in he gets in to the ruck, hard and fast.

Secondly his rucking technique or rather objective is really good and anti-Irish. He rucks beyond the ball as opposed to over the ball.

In other news, Ruan and Paddy kicked really poorly from hand.

At the minute 2nd row is a weakness. Out half is probably up there in fairness especially if paddy is off form. Fit and firing though we are very, very strong though

Pete

I have backed Luke Marshall since I first saw him start. He has all the tools to be a top 12 but until Anscombe arrived he was in limbo somewhat. You can see him getting more and more confident with each game though. His show and go outside D'arcy was impressive too, made good yards and needed a really good ay by d'arse to scrag him.

Stand I would consider you guys to have the best 2nd row in Ireland, Muller and Tuohy are a great pair. I hope Hendy starts playing in the 2nd row more now for the big games and Muller's injury does mean that will happen. I think he is a better lock than a 6 myself.

Just going to what Jen says on Cave, yeah he isn't as good as the rest of the backline but he is slightly underrated and he does make them tick. You do have the option of putting in Payne or Bowe at 13 and putting in Gilroy.

Yeah I am the same since the first game in the new Lansdowne I've said he will go far despite injuries. I hope this game puts him ahead of Paddy (who has also been playing well)

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Ulster lads, where would you consider your weakness to be or do you have any?

Yes, lots.

At 10 Jackson has the talent but can be inconsistent. Also, our goal kicking percentage isn't very high.
At times this season our lineout has badly struggled- but this is almost entirely due to the absence of Johann Muller.
In many games we have given away too many penalties.
In attack, we can be rather predictable at times if we don't cross the gainline around the ruck.
We make far too many unforced errors as a rule.

I expect all of the above to improve. Really, we are a side that is only playing at about 50 or 60% of its potential.

Totally agree on Luke Marshall. Disagree Anscombe has left him in limbo; Anscombe has had him involved in every matchday squad even if only on the bench. He's been made to work for his minutes but he's been involved in most games.

Now I think he's come in and laid down a marker to take Paddys shirt full time. I've always been a massive fan of his so its gratifying to see him begin to touch that potential he has.

Notch,

I think you read Stands post wrong re Marshall.

And I would say that at times our lineout has struggled because of a lack of any second row rather than just Muller. Last season we were totally dependant on Muller, this season though he has been very important but we have won without him.

Yeah - I think Stand was saying McLaughlin left Marshall in limbo, although that was partially to do with injuries.

I think Paddy Jackson had a poor game, but I think the doubts over his ablity are off the mark. The problem is that he had a bad game aganist another province, which outweighs half a dozen good games against other opposition in the eyes of opposition fans (which is quite natural).

I remember the derision the first time Pienaar played against Munster, and missed a potentially match-winning penalty. He hadn't been here long (although he had already scored all our points in his first game for us, against Glasgow). Quite a few Munster fans thought we had been sold a pup. I don't think history has borne that out, do you? And I'm sure there are players for other provinces who I 've dismissed after they had a bad game against Ulster.

Sometimes players don't perform. Healy had a worse game than Jackson, but he's still our best loosehead, by a country mile. And I've yet to see Jackson have a game nearly as bad as Madigan against the Ospreys. Yet Madigan was much better on Friday.

So I'm entirely happy with Jackson on the whole. I'm not worried about outhalf (but only because we can call on Pienaar instead of NOC). Slightly concerned about TH, given Fitzpatrick's almost continued absence. We are really relying on Afoa. I'd like to see Macklin start when we are playing the likes of Zebre at home. Also openside - what is the story with Sean Doyle?

Very much relieved to see D'Arcy featuring again. And hope to see Allen reappear - handy wee player.

Notch wrote:

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Ulster lads, where would you consider your weakness to be or do you have any?

Yes, lots.

At 10 Jackson has the talent but can be inconsistent. Also, our goal kicking percentage isn't very high.
At times this season our lineout has badly struggled- but this is almost entirely due to the absence of Johann Muller.
In many games we have given away too many penalties.
In attack, we can be rather predictable at times if we don't cross the gainline around the ruck.
We make far too many unforced errors as a rule.

I expect all of the above to improve. Really, we are a side that is only playing at about 50 or 60% of its potential.

I think your attacking variants are excellent. It seems to be just a standard Ulster set off every move; the 9 has a forward coming in hard from out to in at pace and he has 2 options

Option A: hit that forward
Option B: pass behind the forward to a back who is a good distributor

Few teams use such a simple yet space efficient move off such a high percentage of rucks.

Leinster used it a lot last year and it was where footballers/good decision makers like Heaslip and Toner excelled.

The ball went out to a forward off 9

Option A: Forward takes it on
Option B: Forward passes it to a second forward running out to in
Option C: Forward passes behind the second forward to Sexton

These kind of multi-option plays are what rugby should be about I think. So many teams (a lot of Premiership sides) are coached phase by phase, where every player has a role for x amount of phases and theoretically all going to plan there should be a gap by phase y. What teams like Leinster, Tolouse, Clermont and now Ulster along with the majority of S15 sides do is they coach players to make decisions based on scenarios in short spaces of time. There is never a set plan with one option. It is always we will put you in a position where the defence can not cope you just need to exploit it by making the right decision. They then coach all players to be able to execute. Guys like Afoa, Strauss, Domingo, Healy, Gray, Hines, Mas, Servat just to name a few are front five forwards who are actually capable of playing rugby as well as hitting things.

I think it is an area Munster have fallen down hugely on over the last 5 years where other teams up-skilled they have not. I think while Penny is bringing in a new way of playing and that will have a relative degree of success, it takes years to coach guys in to being footballers.

I think Ulster have really come good in this regard and it shows in their backline in particular, look at the amount of competent decision makers you have! Then look at the pack and you have some good footballers too, Afoa, Tuohy, Henry, Wilson, Williams. All relatively smart and capable footballers.

I thought we looked indecisive against you guys. Compare it with Jared Payne's try against Northampton, where Trimble came scything in from his wing to act a first receiver to give us an overlap (whcih Payne ultimately didn't need!)

Excellent analysis, though, Pete.

Pete,

Did you just say that Toner was a good decision maker?

I will bow to your superior knowledge but I always perceive him as the opposite of that.

We do have a good attacking structure, but we are still quite pedestrian in execution a lot of the time. We need to inject more tempo into it and get our outhalf and midfield running onto the ball on the gainline.

Don Alfonso wrote:I thought we looked indecisive against you guys. Compare it with Jared Payne's try against Northampton, where Trimble came scything in from his wing to act a first receiver to give us an overlap (whcih Payne ultimately didn't need!)

Excellent analysis, though, Pete.

Thanks Don.

There is a difference in the two scenarios there though one is a team plan designed to stretch defences and keep them guessing. As Leinster saw against Clermont between the two weeks, line speed in defence can make such a difference to how a side attacks. Ulster with their ruck distribution strategy keep sides guessing and therefore make it hard to get off the line with any sense of confidence.

It is such an integral part of rugby attacking play. The move that scored us the try in last years semi-final has become famous for the line break that saw Kearney go though and then Healy finish. We used it a few times in the pool games this year firstly to try and get the linebreak and try but secondly to stop their pillars cutting down our space for Sexton and allowing their backrow drift in to midfield which meant we had to do loads of switches and switch variants.

The threat of that move meant their pillar defenders knew they had to stay still until the ball was well in to the midfield. Ulster are just doing a less complicated and more readily available version of this fixing a defender so that Jackson has more time or fixing a defender so the forward ball carrier has 1 defender tackling him rather than 2 which should equal a gain line success.

Trimble coming in to the line is not something that is going to work over and over in a game. However off openside scrums it works very well as seen in the 1/4 final win over Munster when he set up a phase and the overlap was created in multi-phase play (only 2 phases!) it does also help that Gilroy is RIDICULOUS!

I think Ulster will develop this liberation of decision making more and more as the season and indeed seasons go by as they have high skill levels, intelligent runners and players with vision and the ability to back up the vision.

MrsP wrote:Pete,

Did you just say that Toner was a good decision maker?

I will bow to your superior knowledge but I always perceive him as the opposite of that.

I think he is actually excellent in this regard. When have you ever seen him make a poor decision. He is not amazing in contact (awful considering he is 20stone) but his ball skills are good and he can play either as a primary or secondary target (primary being the decision maker)

Notch wrote:We do have a good attacking structure, but we are still quite pedestrian in execution a lot of the time. We need to inject more tempo into it and get our outhalf and midfield running onto the ball on the gainline.

True, Jackson did stand really deep against us.

He didn't have a good game. He's played much better than that this season though. He's still learning and will be somewhat inconsistent for a while.

I do feel our backs in general stand a wee bit too deep. Luckily our forward play has been absolutely awesome this season. Just watching our tight five on Saturday was great. Henderson is going to be a star.