Dave's Contest Mock Draft

Analysis for my competition Mock Draft.

1. Carolina: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn.
I cannot in good faith give Cam Newton to the Panthers, I just flat out don’t rate him. That said, this is a contest, this the “obvious pick” and the one that will probably end up happening.

2. Denver: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama.
Obvious move to help transition into John Fox’s 4-3. Suh showed a strong DT can be value at number 2.

3. Buffalo: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M.
Bills are set at QB for at least one more season with Fitzpatrick. Von Miller should help them put pressure on the opposition from the edge.

*****TRADE***** Tennessee trades 1st (#8 ), 2nd (#39) for Cincinnati 1st (#4), 4th (#101).
4. Tennessee (via Cincinnati): Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri.
First trade. I don’t see the Bengals drafting a QB at and giving him a mega bucks #4 contract so the Titans jump up ahead of the Cardinals to take Blaine Gabbert and give him the meg bucks contract anyway.

5. Arizona: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU.
Arizona is more than happy to take the best player in the draft now that there is no value at the Quarterback position.

6. Cleveland: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia.
Colt McCoy showed promise, so give him the consensus top receiver and see if he has what it takes to move the franchise forwards.

7. San Francisco: Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina.
I’m not sure I see Patrick Peterson falling this far in reality, I just have a feeling. An edge rusher is a position of need.

8. Cincinnati (via Tennessee): Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn.
One reason Cincinnati makes the trade with the Titans is because they believe they can land Fairley at number 8. He has character issues, so is a perfect fit. Julio Jones is an option here.

9. Dallas: Tyron Smith, OT, USC.
Apparently Dallas never take tackles in the first round, but it’s a marquee position and they need to properly replace Flozell Adams.

10. Washington: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama.
Big physical receiver who would compliment Santana Moss if he comes back or Anthony Armstrong if he doesn’t. Shame Rex Grossman is all set to be throwing the ball.

11. Houston: Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri.
No idea why, but I rate this guy. Wade Phillips will see a lot of DeMarcus Ware in the kid from Missouri who will move from DE to OLB in the 3-4. Amukamara could be the pick, but Houston will probably have doubts about using consecutive first rounder’s at the same position.

12. Minnesota: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College.
Bryant McKinnie will be 32 heading into the season and whilst the Vikings line used to be their strength it is going stale. They have Adrian Peterson and they need to keep providing him with running lanes through his prime.

13. Detroit: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska.
The Lions would have taken Castonzo if he was on the board. Considered the trade up, but Houston may not be takers and ultimately in the NFC North you need good corners and I of all people should know that watching the Packers every week!

14. St Louis: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson.
I actually had St Louis trading up with Minnesota to go grab Bowers. Then I figure that the Lions could do with addressing other areas and figured it didn’t help Minnesota much either. Spagnuolo loves his defensive lines and not long ago Bowers was a #1 pick. I think the injury risk is there, but it’s being over hyped by the US media as they love to do.

15. Miami: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama.
Two months ago this was the most obvious pick in the draft. Things have changed, but I still think this makes too much sense. The Dolphins could lose both running backs in Free Agency if it ever happens and if they do persist with Chad Henne then you need some form of Credible run game.

16. Jacksonville: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue.
Somewhere on this board, Pr4wn called this a “badly kept secret”. Who I am to argue with our moderator.

17. New England (via Oakland 2010): Cam Jordan, DE, California.
If there is one unwritten rule about the draft it’s that the Patriots draft picks are as available as a “celebrity” socialite. However because I feel that the Patriots want one of Kerrigan, Jordan and Watt I’m giving them Cam Jordan.

18. San Diego: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin.
I’m sure an Diego will be running to the podium… They also have two 2nd rounder’s and two 3rd rounder’s so may well be in the trading market to jump ahead of Jacksonville.

19. New York Giants: Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida.
The interior line is pretty much all ageing, O’Hara and Seubert are coming of surgery…

20. Tampa Bay: Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia.
Concerned that this may be a little high for Houston. Fills a need though as either a DE or OLB are probably required.

21. Kansas City: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado.
Protect your over priced Quarterback.

22. Indianapolis: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin.
Protect your over age Quarterback. Charlie Johnson is not sufficient if you’re going to give Peyton even more dollars.

23. Philadelphia: Cory Liuget, DT, Illinois.
Would probably have gone tackle is the previous two picks weren’t as they are. Liuget has been rising up boards and is good value.

*****TRADE***** Cincinnati trades 2nd (#35), 3rd (#66) for New Orleans 1st (#24).
24. Cincinnati (via New Orleans): Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas.
Uh Oh! Quarterback related trades. The Bengals have trade bait from their earlier switch with the Titans. This move still leaves them with an early 2nd rounder and a chance to leapfrog the Seahawks and take their pick of Locker and Mallet. Mallet has a great arm, is pro ready and the Bengals don’t care about personal issues. I also rate Mallet as a player and couldn’t figure out whom to give the Saints!

25. Seattle: Jake Locker, QB, Washington.
Pete Carrol says “Screw it, word on campus is that all is lost if you don’t have a 1st round quarterback” before taking the local boy.

26. Baltimore: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado.
Has talent and personal issues to boot. I’m sure Ray Lewis can sort those out.

27. Atlanta: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa.
He’s slipped in our consensus mock draft, but the Falcons have a need to address.

*****TRADE***** New Orleans trades 2nd (#35 - CIN), 3rd (#88) for New England 1st (#28).
28. New Orleans (via New England): Muhammad Wilkerson, DT/DE, Temple.
Normality restored. New England trades away a pick to drop into round 2. It so happens to be the Bengals pick that I just gave to the Saints. They will want to improve their front seven and Wilkerson has been rising up boards.

29. Chicago: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA.
In one sense I’m not sure why I’ve done this, but Ayers is talented, good value at #29 and the Bears current crop of linebackers are all in their 30’s.

*****TRADE***** New England Trades 2nd (#33 – CAR 2010), 5th (#159) for New York Jets 1st (#30).
30. New England (via New York Jets): Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State.
Bill does it again. The Jets will be happy to move down 3 spots as either Phil Taylor or Steven Paea will still be available. The Patriots want a tackle and will poach Derek Sherrod before either the Steelers or Packers make the move.

31. Pittsburgh: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami.
Corner is an area of need and Brandon Harris has skills. People have mentioned his height, but I’m still happy with it.

32. Green Bay: Brookes Reed, OLB, Arizona.
I picked him in our consensus mock, so why change now? He fit’s the defence well and his hair could easily be confused with Clay Matthews so if we gave him #55 we could try and fool the opposition. Will be looking for a OT/LG in round two, a CB, DE and WR in round 3 and 4 where we have 3 picks. Pick up a late round running back and that Superbowl is coming back to Titletown.

Hmm, not bad, I'm inclined to think they'll be a lot of trades from #10 onwards, I can't speak for other teams but I'd imagine Jimmy Smith is higher than Liuget for the Eagles, not bad though.

I do think there will be more trades than this though. There were 10 last year iirc.

Yeah, but its tough to predict the trades accurately... so there is an element of not overdosing because it's a contest and you don't want to move everyone out of their original spot.

Graeme Swann's Cat wrote:Hmm, not bad, I'm inclined to think they'll be a lot of trades from #10 onwards, I can't speak for other teams but I'd imagine Jimmy Smith is higher than Liuget for the Eagles, not bad though.

I do think there will be more trades than this though. There were 10 last year iirc.

Correct me if I have misunderstood, but this year you cant trade next years picks, so that will cut down trading in the first round i would imagine.

Aye, however that would come into effect in later rounds more than the 1st.

Graeme Swann's Cat wrote:Aye, however that would come into effect in later rounds more than the 1st.

That fact had slipped me by... that pretty much buggers the Panthers minimal hopes of shipping the 1st pick (not that they ever stood a chance in the current salary exploding era). As I said on another topic, the lowest team that could do it was Washington at 10 because to move up they would need their entire draft class of picks plus next years first rounder! Now they haven't even got enough points to make that move up!