Who wont make the Pro12 play offs? Includes table and remaining fixtures

First topic message reminder :

Current standings after round 20

1 Ulster 20 15 1 4 71
2 Leinster 20 15 0 5 68
3 Glasgow 20 14 0 6 67
4 Ospreys 20 14 1 5 62
5 Scarlets 20 14 0 6 62
6 Munster 20 10 1 9 48

Remaining fixtures;
Ulster; Connacht (A), Blues (H)
Leinster; Zebre (A), Ospreys (H)
Ospreys; Glasgow (A), Leinster (A)
Scarlets; Blues (H), Treviso (H)
Glasgow; Ospreys (H), Connacht (A)
Munster; Dragons (A), Zebre (A)

Choose the 2 teams you believe won't make the last 4 and your reason please.

I can't see Ulster not making it nor Glasgow for that matter. Out of the rest it's difficult to bet against the Ospreys and Leinster with their records in the league. Munster don't look as strong as they have been so I'll say they'll miss out. I can't separate logic and emotion when it comes to the Scarlets so I'll say they'll make it but they need something out of the leinster game.
It'll have to be the Ospreys for me then.

Munster and Ospreys to miss out.

Updated. Apologies for the delay.

Good work, George.

Ulster are home and hosed - they have four of the bottom 6 in the table still to play. My team Glasgow I am cautiously optimistic about as 8 points between them and the Spreys looks quite a lot to make up at this point of the season.

That said, I think that Glasgow have the toughest run-in from here.

Glasgow are looking good George and have played some great rugby. It's still in their hands but like you say they have a tough run in. Some really big games left and it will be intriguing to see which 3 out of the remaining 5 will join Ulster. Very exciting with some key games being played when the big boys are back from international duty. I have a feeling that the Leinster v Osperys game on the last day could be a decider for the O's - should be a cracker - Munster struggling at the moment and not the team they were

Leinster have to play Scarlets, Glasgow, Ulster and Ospreys but all at home. They do have to go to Cork to play Munster though !. Other than that our run in is tough GC but the way Toonie has his scratch team playing dunno if the Ints will get back into the team !

21st Century Schizoid Man wrote:Leinster have to play Scarlets, Glasgow, Ulster and Ospreys but all at home. They do have to go to Cork to play Munster though !. Other than that our run in is tough GC but the way Toonie has his scratch team playing dunno if the Ints will get back into the team !

we always play them in Limerick. Cork's too small. It use to be the other way round. up til they re developed Thomond.

Updated. Looks like a three horse race for 4th now! Great wins for Glasgow and Leinster which is looking likely to cementing their play off places.

Munster thrashed in Treviso, the town has gone barmy...

Its amazing the progress Treviso have made. They were missing more players than Munster were and hammered them.

They are formidable at home. They lost by 1 point against Leinster and Ulster and really should have won those games. They just need to get more consistancy away from home.

Looks like Ulster, Glasgow, Leinster and the Ospreys for me. Should be interesting

Munster are gone. They have a really tough run in.
If Connacht can win their remaining games they can really challenge Munster for a HC spot.

Top 3 will not change. Leinster could sneak in ahead of Glasgow for a home semi, but no one will break into the top 3.

With Munster gone, 4th place is between the easy run in for Scarlets, (I mean really. The only away games they have left are the 2 bottom teams in the league) and the grit of the Ospreys who always seem to come strong through a hard run in.

The last game in the RDS could be Leinster going for 2nd and Ospreys going for 4th.

Leinster win might put the Scarlets in a Ravenhill semi and get a home one for themselves. Ospreys win could send them to Ravers and Leinster to Glasgow.

LeinsterFan4life wrote:Munster are gone. They have a really tough run in.
If Connacht can win their remaining games they can really challenge Munster for a HC spot.

I can't really see Connacht make up a 13 point deficit in 6 games given that Munster have the 2 bottom teams in the League up last (admittedly away)

But if they are in with a shout at all they could make things difficult for the top 2 who have to visit the sportsground in the last 2 fixtures.

If Connacht can beat Munster in Thomond next month, that will be a serious result.

Have they ever won there in pro rugby?

I think it will finish as it is now, with Scarlets and Munster missing out.

I think Ulster and Glasgow are pretty much there. Leinster and Ospreys will finish strongly. Scarlets and Munster just don't look strong enough to see it through to me and both are prone to losing games they shouldn't.

doctornickolas wrote:I think it will finish as it is now, with Scarlets and Munster missing out.

I think Ulster and Glasgow are pretty much there. Leinster and Ospreys will finish strongly. Scarlets and Munster just don't look strong enough to see it through to me and both are prone to losing games they shouldn't.

Not saying you are wrong but look at the Scarlets run in. The post at the top is actually incorrect in that they have the Blues at home and not away.

Surely the willow park U13s could handle a run in like that. Only hard game is Glasgow at home, and they beat them away. Dragons game is in a neutral venue. Only proper away game is Zebre.


Scarlets v Edinburgh Parc y Scarlets
Zebre v Scarlets Stadio XXV Aprile
Dragons v Scarlets Millennium Stadium
Scarlets v Glasgow Parc y Scarlets
Scarlets v Blues Parc y Scarlets
Scarlets v Treviso Parc y Scarlets

Jen - Theoretically the Scarlets run in does look somewhat favourable, with the only 'hard' game being the home fixture against Glasgow (although we won in Glasgow this season already). However we need to ensure that the loss in Dublin (thank god I didn't see it) doesn't get in the heads of our young players, as we do have the ability to start a downward spiral from almost nowhere.

That said I think we should just about make the play-off. Another season of finishing 5th would be heart breaking after the improvements we have shown at the start of the season.

Race for 4th now between scarlets and Ospreys. I fancy Ospreys personally.

The Scarlets must have the advantage to get 4th but if they do get to the play offs that is as far as they will go but the Ospreys will be a big threat coming 4th. If the Ospreys do come 4th I would rather be the team coming second for the best chance of getting to the final.

glamorganalun wrote:The Scarlets must have the advantage to get 4th but if they do get to the play offs that is as far as they will go but the Ospreys will be a big threat coming 4th. If the Ospreys do come 4th I would rather be the team coming second for the best chance of getting to the final.

Scarlets are in the position where the play off spot is ours to lose. Also if we do get in I wouldn't rule ou an away win in Scotston cos we have picked up a win their earlier in the season. But realistically whoever finishes 4th will be underdogs, otherwise they would have finished higher.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

glamorganalun wrote:The Scarlets must have the advantage to get 4th but if they do get to the play offs that is as far as they will go but the Ospreys will be a big threat coming 4th. If the Ospreys do come 4th I would rather be the team coming second for the best chance of getting to the final.

Scarlets are in the position where the play off spot is ours to lose. Also if we do get in I wouldn't rule ou an away win in Scotston cos we have picked up a win their earlier in the season. But realistically whoever finishes 4th will be underdogs, otherwise they would have finished higher.

I agree with most of what you said except the last statement, during the 6N teams the teams with a number of non 6N qualifed players will have an advantage at picking up lots of points that they would not gain if all teams were at full strength. I admit there are exceptions

Alun, granted, although Glasgow have a decent amount missing and so do Leinster and Ulster. So they are will all be stronger post 6ns too.

Glasgow lost more than their entire first 15 during the internationals did they not?

I don't think Munster have much hope as they have to win 2 more games than Scarlets & Ospreys and all three of these clubs look favorites to win 3 of their last 5 games with each of them having two games that they are unlikely to win

Munster likely to strugle to win against Glasgow (A), Leinster (H),
Scarlets likely to struggle to win against Glasgow (H), Blues (A),
Ospreys likely to struggle to win against Glasgow (A), Leinster (A)

The Ospreys at full strength after the 6 nations might well pull back their 1 point defecit on the Scarlets have the easier run in and so at the moment I think the West Wales team look best placed

Newsilure wrote:I don't think Munster have much hope as they have to win 2 more games than Scarlets & Ospreys and all three of these clubs look favorites to win 3 of their last 5 games with each of them having two games that they are unlikely to win

Munster likely to strugle to win against Glasgow (A), Leinster (H),
Scarlets likely to struggle to win against Glasgow (H), Blues (A),
Ospreys likely to struggle to win against Glasgow (A), Leinster (A)

The Ospreys at full strength after the 6 nations might well pull back their 1 point defecit on the Scarlets have the easier run in and so at the moment I think the West Wales team look best placed

Scarlets have already played the Blues away on the 21st of Dec. They have 4 home games remaining inc Blues. One in the Millennium Stadium (Dragons) and their only proper away game is v Zebre who have yet to win a game in their existence.

Practically nailed on for 4th with the Ospreys having to visit Glasgow and Dublin in the last 2 games

From a Leinster perspective I really don't wanna see Ospreys in the top 4, those guys are ridiculous!

Its still possible for both the Scarlets and the Ospreys to make the top 4 but it will require both teams to win all 5 remaining games.
Scarlets have a decent chance of doing this with the toughest remaining game being Glasgow at PYS.
The Ospreys should win their next 3 being Dragons and Treviso at the Liberty and the Blues at the Millenium.
During this period Glasgow have to play Leinster in Dublin, Munster at Scotstoun and the visit PYS. unless Glasgow win 1 of the away games and beat Munster the clash between them and the Ospreys could see the Ospreys either draw level on points or potentially pass them depending on bonus points between now and then.
Who would write off the Osprey's chances of finishing 4th if they still have the opportunity with 2 games to go even if they are both away against Glasgow and Leinster. Even Connaught at the Sportsground is no easy task as both Leinster and the Ospreys have discovered this season.
Glasgow may be Top at the moment but with a run in as tough as they have they may still not make the cut.

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:From a Leinster perspective I really don't wanna see Ospreys in the top 4, those guys are ridiculous!

Ridiculous?

Ridiculously good? Steady on, if so.

Ridiculous looking with the branded arses? Totally argree if so.

Ridiculous in that they have a habit of winning the title when not being the best side in the comeptition

Ospreys are capable of winning their last 5 games - it will be a big ask but with Ulster sliding and Leinster not the force they were I think if the O's can make it they may well be favourites to retain their title. If the Scarlets pip them I don't see them making much of an impact.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:Ridiculous in that they have a habit of winning the title when not being the best side in the comeptition

Steady on. You are straying into beshocked territory now. Winning 2 finals away from home when they were 2nd in the league makes them the best side in the competition by definition.

It gives me no pleasure to say that as a fan of the team that were first in both league tables. But if you have play offs that is what you get. I was in favour when they were announced. as it makes a better spectacle and stops the league being won weeks in advance creating loads of dead rubbers.

Didn't Gloucester have a run of topping the premiership and losing the playoffs for a while?

RubyGuby wrote:Ospreys are capable of winning their last 5 games - it will be a big ask but with Ulster sliding and Leinster not the force they were I think if the O's can make it they may well be favourites to retain their title. If the Scarlets pip them I don't see them making much of an impact.

Leinster and Glasgow are in rich veins of form at the moment. having 19 and 20 points respectively during the 6N.

Ulster had just 9 points out of a possible 20, but the break will give them a chance to re group.

Personally I think Leinster are not too far off the team that won 3 HCs in 4 years, but I may be biassed.

Just had a hard HC group and a plethora of backline injuries all at the same time. Had we Munsters group I would be confident that we would have got a home QF regardless of injuries. But that is just idle speculation. We don't.

RubyGuby wrote:Ospreys are capable of winning their last 5 games -

They are indeed, Ruby. Most certainly they are. And sure weren't they capable of winning against a side at the weekend that are much further down the 'force of nature' graph than even poor Leinster. Yep, that they were. But capability doesn't win prizes of course.... as Leinster well know to their cost in Pro12 ......

I'm in total agreement with Secret and McLady here - The Ospreys are like a lumbering giant always getting to the party late and stealing what was "rightfully" someone elses. The 6 Nations skews the form book somewhat and I would like to see Ulster, Leinster, Galsgow and the Ospreys in the last 4 as for the first time any 1 of those 4 could genuinely win the thing which has to be a good thing.

I'm just going to go ahead an say it, there's no way Leinster can win the league this year.

Slaughters metaphorical goat/virgin on the alter of the mocker gods...

I just think Leinster and Ulster are vying for the underdog tag as Irish teams seem to prefer that - No fooling us - we know we are inferior to you at this level and just get lucky sometimes

RubyGuby wrote:I just think Leinster and Ulster are vying for the underdog tag as Irish teams seem to prefer that - No fooling us - we know we are inferior to you at this level and just get lucky sometimes

It's early enough for Ulster to get a grip and say "What the f*&K are we doing here?? We've gone to sleep. Let's get our minds back on the job and remember what this season means to us...and it's obviously more than rugby"

So it's early enough for them.

It's certainly early enough for the assbranded lads from Ospreys to cheekily laugh to themselves - "Here we come again lads. We left the kock crowing to another bunch of eejits this season and we'll kill whoever gets to the final with us stone dead in their showboating tracks! Will the idiots ever learn???"

So, yep, they're doing ok with their seasonal plan.

It's early enough for Glasgow to remember they're a Scottish side with no rights to the Pro12 - as laid down by the European free movement of labour act!!! They might begin to believe that it can't be as good as it's been, and remember that they're right - it isn't.

So, it's an edgy early'ness' stuff for Glasgow. Will they keep the cool?

I don't know if it's early days for Leinster. They can't really surprise anyone anymore. The cat is out of the bag. They're gunned for big time whether they're playing the champagne stuff or whether they're playing the potato farmer stuff. Teams will prepare best for them and meet them with the extra bit of fire required to make an impact.... so, if the improvements in Leinster form is only a light fabric dressing of deceit.... it's going to be found out in the final run in. And if it is a smokescreen covering up a belly full of trouble, then it ain't gonna be pretty.

So their end of season campaign has no cloak and they have no time...every game must be clinical to stop a fall back in confidence.

By that reckoning, the championship is either Ulster's or Osprey's to lose................ take the pain of pressure, you two

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:Ridiculous in that they have a habit of winning the title when not being the best side in the comeptition

There it is.

Secret - It may be Ulster's to lose but it's the Ospreys to win. Nick Williams is a huge loss and IMO is making the difference between Ulster winning and struggling

Careful Ruby!! Careful. Keep to the plan. Don't crow your kock too early!!

Joking aside Secret I think the O's have left it too late this time - if they get there I of course would fancy them but somehow losing their first 3 games has left them with to much of a gap. They should also have taken 4pts from a very average Munster this weekend - Let's wait and see

Ruby - not being disrespectful, but the Ospreys can not use the international call up excuse, it is hitting nearly every side in the league (bar Drags and Connacht) pretty hard. Treviso and Glasgow have both almost lost a full squad, yet both are still climbing up and up.

Also the Ospreys have 4 of the 5 teams the Scarlets have in their run in, but I think I would rather Zebre away than Leinster. And also the Scarlets have the more favourable home games out of those 4. So to be planning on lifting the Rabo trophy, when your playoff spot is insecure is a bit previous.

Also IF the Ospreys squeeze in 4th place they will be underdogs against the other sides. Glasgow are on a real rich vain of form, you could even say they are building as the season goes on the way the Ospreys normally claim to do, so seeing as they are possible 1st place home semi-finalist that will not be a particularly pleasent trip for the Ospreys either.

No, Ruby, I don't agree. I think they just know how to close down the final games better than most.... even psychologically. Short sharp shocks of total concentration are what Welsh sides tend to do best. When the chips are down performances. Irish sides are more long distant runners - chugging along but when a gear change is needed they can get aggitated and uncomfortable.

But I genuinely think Ulster will recover some of their seasonal form by the end and that Ospreys will be pretty close to the title too. Those two for me at this moment.

Form table this year out of 35 possible :-

Glasgow 33
Ulster 18
Leinster 28
Scarlets 16
Ospreys 22
Munster 18
Treviso 16
Cardiff 10
Connacht 17
Edinburgh 3
Dragons 10
Zebre 4

Warriors, Leinster and Ospreys look good . Treviso and Connacht are punching above their respective weights big time.

21st Century Schizoid Man wrote:Form table this year out of 35 possible :-

Glasgow 33
Ulster 18
Leinster 28
Scarlets 16
Ospreys 22
Munster 18
Treviso 16
Cardiff 10
Connacht 17
Edinburgh 3
Dragons 10
Zebre 4

Warriors, Leinster and Ospreys look good . Treviso and Connacht are punching above their respective weights big time.

Where are these numbers from and what do they represent? Not seen them before, so I don't have a frame of reference to tell what the numbers mean.

Obviously I can tell the relative story from the 2 Scottish teams alone, but I don't know what the highest possible score is for example.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

21st Century Schizoid Man wrote:Form table this year out of 35 possible :-

Glasgow 33
Ulster 18
Leinster 28
Scarlets 16
Ospreys 22
Munster 18
Treviso 16
Cardiff 10
Connacht 17
Edinburgh 3
Dragons 10
Zebre 4

Warriors, Leinster and Ospreys look good . Treviso and Connacht are punching above their respective weights big time.

Where are these numbers from and what do they represent? Not seen them before, so I don't have a frame of reference to tell what the numbers mean.

Obviously I can tell the relative story from the 2 Scottish teams alone, but I don't know what the highest possible score is for example.

Schiz - is this the points that teams have taken from their last 7 matches?

Wow!

Sweet bubbling jeysus. Glasgow have 5 BP wins from 7 games?!

So they've been scoring for fun in this calendar year, maybe when they get their internationals back they will revert to last years form. Hopefully!

Mickado wrote:Sweet bubbling jeysus. Glasgow have 5 BP wins from 7 games?!

So they've been scoring for fun in this calendar year, maybe when they get their internationals back they will revert to last years form. Hopefully!

Glasgow have taken the leagues record for 5pt wins on the trot! Apparently the record used to belong to the Dragons from way back in '03