Who wont make the Pro12 play offs? Includes table and remaining fixtures

First topic message reminder :

Current standings after round 20

1 Ulster 20 15 1 4 71
2 Leinster 20 15 0 5 68
3 Glasgow 20 14 0 6 67
4 Ospreys 20 14 1 5 62
5 Scarlets 20 14 0 6 62
6 Munster 20 10 1 9 48

Remaining fixtures;
Ulster; Connacht (A), Blues (H)
Leinster; Zebre (A), Ospreys (H)
Ospreys; Glasgow (A), Leinster (A)
Scarlets; Blues (H), Treviso (H)
Glasgow; Ospreys (H), Connacht (A)
Munster; Dragons (A), Zebre (A)

Choose the 2 teams you believe won't make the last 4 and your reason please.

So things are looking up for Glasgow.....................................

Mickado wrote:Sweet bubbling jeysus. Glasgow have 5 BP wins from 7 games?!

So they've been scoring for fun in this calendar year, maybe when they get their internationals back they will revert to last years form. Hopefully!

Their next match will tell.......

Just as amazing is Embra's 3 losing bps from 7 games.

These towns are 30 miles apart or so. But light years in form terms.

Is it fair to say Munster are out of the running?

7 points adrift, two tough games, Leinster and Glasgow an always tough Connacht, and a quarter final to prepare for, maybe more?

Munster only saving gracve is the last two games are against the bottom two teams, but I think it may well be to much for Munster to make up at this late stage.


To look at everyone else it may be easier to break down if they play someone from bottom or top half of the table (it does have flaws).

Ulster; B T B T B

Leinster; T T T B T

Ospreys; B B B T T

Scarlets; B B T B B

Glasgow; T T T T B

Munster; B T T B B

With this view Scarlets have the easiest run in, Leinster and Glasgow the toughest in order (hardest to easiest)
Leinster + Glasgow (4 T's)
Ulster + Ospreys + Munster (2 T's)
Scarlets (1 T)

as above think Munster have to much to do,

Ulster average run in (as long as injuries recover), meaning Glasgow or Leinster could drop and Ospreys and more likly Scarlets rise.

Think now it will be Munster and Ospreys that lose out.

I agree on your last conclusion, and that Ulster have the easiest run in of the top 3.

But of the 4 games that you have listed for us as T, 3 are at home (and an opportunity to take points from rivals) and one is away to a team that you have conceded are out of it.

Mickado wrote:Sweet bubbling jeysus. Glasgow have 5 BP wins from 7 games?!

So they've been scoring for fun in this calendar year, maybe when they get their internationals back they will revert to last years form. Hopefully!

Last 5 games: 26 tries.

We could have scored more. But it started to get a bit boring.

George Carlin wrote:

Mickado wrote:Sweet bubbling jeysus. Glasgow have 5 BP wins from 7 games?!

So they've been scoring for fun in this calendar year, maybe when they get their internationals back they will revert to last years form. Hopefully!

Last 5 games: 26 tries.

We could have scored more. But it started to get a bit boring.

That's more than half your tries in less than one third of the games. Back end heavy. Like a female R&B singer.

Mickado wrote: Back end heavy. Like a female R&B singer.

Sorry guys - yes last seven games so the totals are out of a possible 35

George Carlin wrote:

Mickado wrote:Sweet bubbling jeysus. Glasgow have 5 BP wins from 7 games?!

So they've been scoring for fun in this calendar year, maybe when they get their internationals back they will revert to last years form. Hopefully!

Last 5 games: 26 tries.

We could have scored more. But it started to get a bit boring.

It quite patently did v Embra home and away !

I just had a look at who you scored all those tries against.

Treviso, Zebre, Blues, Dragons, and the only decent ones Ulster, whose form has fallen off a cliff.

2 Christmas games with 3 tries each v the team with 3 losing BPs from 7 games (one of which was v Glasgow)

Don't get me wrong, it's still a great achievement, but let's see how you get on in the next 5 games.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:I just had a look at who you scored all those tries against.

Treviso, Zebre, Blues, Dragons, and the only decent ones Ulster, whose form has fallen off a cliff.

Doh. And we came so close to winning morally.

George Carlin wrote:

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:I just had a look at who you scored all those tries against.

Treviso, Zebre, Blues, Dragons, and the only decent ones Ulster, whose form has fallen off a cliff.

Doh. And we came so close to winning morally.

Looking forward to your arrival in the RDS. We never get our Intl starters back for the 1st game, then again we don't have too many of them at the moment.

Darcy out until late April. Healy and Sexton likely to be unaffected as they won't have played all of the 6N games.

That leaves SOB, Heaslip, Ross, Drico and Rob K who will be unavailable.

What is the policy with Glasgow, will you have all of your Intl players available?

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

George Carlin wrote:

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:I just had a look at who you scored all those tries against.

Treviso, Zebre, Blues, Dragons, and the only decent ones Ulster, whose form has fallen off a cliff.

Doh. And we came so close to winning morally.

Looking forward to your arrival in the RDS. We never get our Intl starters back for the 1st game, then again we don't have too many of them at the moment.

Darcy out until late April. Healy and Sexton likely to be unaffected as they won't have played all of the 6N games.

That leaves SOB, Heaslip, Ross, Drico and Rob K who will be unavailable.

What is the policy with Glasgow, will you have all of your Intl players available?

I would hope for Kellock, Wilson and Barclay back at least. This could be a cracker - every bit as good as the corresponding fixture at Scotstoun was dreadful.

No chance Munster making it now. Its between the Scarlets and Ospreys for the fourth spot. You'd have to fancy the Scarlets. Ospreys have a few injuries and remember they lost some quality players during the summer.


Fair play to Glasgow. I thought they would be a mid table team after getting rid of Lineen but the gamble has payed off. Townsend has done a great job and added to the solidity of Lineens team.

Btw, did Edinburghs HEC run last season allow Glasgow to recruit more players?


Leinster are another form team with the likes of Jordi Murphy breaking into the side and playing well.


With Ulster the problem is twofold. They have been wrecked with injuries. Also every team has a dip in performance throughout the season and they were due one. The good start was great but it has raised expectations and put the team under pressure to keep it up. They still look like getting a home semi and will be hard to beat.

Top place is going to be vital with the top 3 teams all so closely matched home advantage is going to be key

Home advantage is not key - Ask Leinster

Ospreys have lost Ryan Jones for about 8 weeks, if the beeb can be trusted, so that may also be a real negative factor in the Ospreys hopes of retaining the title (reaching the play-offs) as they looked very poor without him at the start of the season.

Good point SS, BUT i believe King - Tips - Bearman is a good back line so hopefully wont impact us TOO much. For him on a personal level i hope it doesn't impact his Lions chances.

georgestowersbiceps wrote:Good point SS, BUT i believe King - Tips - Bearman is a good back line so hopefully wont impact us TOO much. For him on a personal level i hope it doesn't impact his Lions chances.

+1 to that. I will admit that I was one of those who was disappointed with his constant selection over in form players a few seasons back, but this year he has really proven his worth. Turning the Ospreys from the shambles at the start of the season to play off contenders, and realistically doing the same with Wales in the 6 Nations, I think his leadership qualities, whether named as a captain or not, have been proven. And he certainly deserves to tour.

21st Century Schizoid Man wrote:

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:Looking forward to your arrival in the RDS. We never get our Intl starters back for the 1st game, then again we don't have too many of them at the moment.

Darcy out until late April. Healy and Sexton likely to be unaffected as they won't have played all of the 6N games.

That leaves SOB, Heaslip, Ross, Drico and Rob K who will be unavailable.

What is the policy with Glasgow, will you have all of your Intl players available?

I would hope for Kellock, Wilson and Barclay back at least. This could be a cracker - every bit as good as the corresponding fixture at Scotstoun was dreadful.

Sweet Jesus I hope so Schitz! I was going to say that we're owed a couple of tries but, frankly, we're owed some caught passes, completed scrums and garryowens that go forward. Never before have I looked forward to the train back to Queen Street more than that God-awful night in November.

Ospreys now back in the last spot on points difference, and based on what I saw of the Scarlets tonight, I have a feeling the Ospreys may stay there.

Something like + 130 odd I think? NGD's could do us a favour next sat while another bp win would be nice...

Updated.

georgestowersbiceps wrote:

Remaining fixtures;
Ulster; Leinster (A), Dragons (H), Connacht (A), Blues (H)
Leinster; Ulster (H), Munster (A), Zebre (A), Ospreys (H)
Ospreys; Blues (A), Treviso (H), Glasgow (A), Leinster (A)
Scarlets; Dragons (A), Glasgow (H), Blues (A), Treviso (H)
Glasgow; Munster (H), Scarlets (A), Ospreys (H), Connacht (A)
Munster; Glasgow (A), Leinster (H), Dragons (A), Zebre (A)

Really enjoying this thread George. Good one.

However there has been a recurring error in the games remaining.

Scarlets are at home in their last 3.

I even saw the error replicated on another forum. (They must be copying you)

Pedantic I know but......

Not pedantic at all. Corrected. Thanks.

Is the other forum the one on the O's website? That's mine too. Haha.

Anyone else notice that if results go the right way Glasgow and Leinster/Ulster will be certain of a spot, and Munster will definately be out.

georgestowersbiceps wrote:Not pedantic at all. Corrected. Thanks.

Is the other forum the one on the O's website? That's mine too. Haha.

Actually on Leinsterfans

http://forum.leinsterfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=22240&start=80#p526311

georgestowersbiceps wrote:Current standings after round 18

1 Leinster 18 14 0 4 63
2 Glasgow 18 13 0 5 62
3 Ulster 18 13 1 4 62
4 Ospreys 18 12 1 5 54
5 Scarlets 18 12 0 6 54
6 Munster 18 10 1 7 47

Remaining fixtures;
Ulster; Leinster (A), Dragons (H), Connacht (A), Blues (H)
Leinster; Ulster (H), Munster (A), Zebre (A), Ospreys (H)
Ospreys; Blues (A), Treviso (H), Glasgow (A), Leinster (A)
Scarlets; Dragons (A), Glasgow (H), Blues (H), Treviso (H)
Glasgow; Munster (H), Scarlets (A), Ospreys (H), Connacht (A)
Munster; Glasgow (A), Leinster (H), Dragons (A), Zebre (A)

Choose the 2 teams you believe won't make the last 4 and your reason please.

Nice work, george So 8 points between 4th/5th and 2nd/3rd, is it realistic to assume at this stage that barring a minor miracle, the home playoff semis will go to two of the top three, with Scarlets and O's battling it out for the 4th slot - or is that assuming too much?

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

georgestowersbiceps wrote:Current standings after round 18

1 Leinster 18 14 0 4 63
2 Glasgow 18 13 0 5 62
3 Ulster 18 13 1 4 62
4 Ospreys 18 12 1 5 54
5 Scarlets 18 12 0 6 54
6 Munster 18 10 1 7 47

Remaining fixtures;
Ulster; Leinster (A), Dragons (H), Connacht (A), Blues (H)
Leinster; Ulster (H), Munster (A), Zebre (A), Ospreys (H)
Ospreys; Blues (A), Treviso (H), Glasgow (A), Leinster (A)
Scarlets; Dragons (A), Glasgow (H), Blues (H), Treviso (H)
Glasgow; Munster (H), Scarlets (A), Ospreys (H), Connacht (A)
Munster; Glasgow (A), Leinster (H), Dragons (A), Zebre (A)

Choose the 2 teams you believe won't make the last 4 and your reason please.

Nice work, george So 8 points between 4th/5th and 2nd/3rd, is it realistic to assume at this stage that barring a minor miracle, the home playoff semis will go to two of the top three, with Scarlets and O's battling it out for the 4th slot - or is that assuming too much?

I think that's a fair assumption BUT Glasgow have to play both Ospreys and Scarlets so that 8 point gap could be bridged and Glasgow could get dragged into the fight for 4th on the last day.Don't see it happening though. My prediction for the semis is; Ulster v Ospreys & Glasgow v Leinster.

For that to happen Ulster will have to beat us next week. I am hoping the Scarlets with their pi$$ easy run in can keep you Osprelians out of 4th. Sick of losing play offs to you.

Leinster Scarlets and Ulster Glasgow are my hopes rather than predictions.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:For that to happen Ulster will have to beat us next week. I am hoping the Scarlets with their pi$$ easy run in can keep you Osprelians out of 4th. Sick of losing play offs to you.

Leinster Scarlets and Ulster Glasgow are my hopes rather than predictions.

+1
Don't want to see the O's in the final 4

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:For that to happen Ulster will have to beat us next week

Certainly not impossible! Time to break the Dublin curse...

Very good thread George - thanks for keeping it up.

The next game for each side is crucial. The Spreys have more of a solid defense than the Scarlets but the men in red are more of a try scoring threat with Fenby on a hot streak. 3 wins out of the last 4 for the Dragons is more than possible and if just one of those is a BP win, I think that should be enough to see them home.

Would be great to see them in the playoffs.

Being honest, you'd have to fancy the Scarlets to get a BP against the Dragons next week. Our midfield defence ain't that great and JD2 and Scott Williams etc will have a fair bit of joy against us. So from that, I'd wager that they'll get the fourth spot, with the fact they have three home games too and Ospreys may well lose at RDS and Scotstoun.

With so many of the top five teams playing each other any of them, if they win their games could make the top two.

If Scarlets dont make it you would have to say that it will be their own fault as they only play one top team.

Certainly makes things interesting for judgement day. I'll need to take 2 jerseys with me. A borrowed Dragons one for the first half and my ospreys one for the second.

georgestowersbiceps wrote:Certainly makes things interesting for judgement day. I'll need to take 2 jerseys with me. A borrowed Dragons one for the first half and my ospreys one for the second.

I was just saying to a Dragons fan at work, that the Dragons should let the Scarlets run in four tries and then we should collectively keep knocking on and having scrums all over the pitch in an attempt to rip it up and make life harder for your boys.

georgestowersbiceps wrote:Current standings after round 18

1 Leinster 18 14 0 4 63
2 Glasgow 18 13 0 5 62
3 Ulster 18 13 1 4 62
4 Ospreys 18 12 1 5 54
5 Scarlets 18 12 0 6 54
6 Munster 18 10 1 7 47

Remaining fixtures;
Ulster; Leinster (A), Dragons (H), Connacht (A), Blues (H)
Leinster; Ulster (H), Munster (A), Zebre (A), Ospreys (H)
Ospreys; Blues (A), Treviso (H), Glasgow (A), Leinster (A)
Scarlets; Dragons (A), Glasgow (H), Blues (H), Treviso (H)
Glasgow; Munster (H), Scarlets (A), Ospreys (H), Connacht (A)
Munster; Glasgow (A), Leinster (H), Dragons (A), Zebre (A)

Choose the 2 teams you believe won't make the last 4 and your reason please.

I fancy the top four to be:

1 Ulster
2 Leinster
3 Scarlets
4 Ospreys

Glasgow have the toughest run in for sure.

rodders wrote:
I fancy the top four to be:

1 Ulster
2 Leinster
3 Scarlets
4 Ospreys

Glasgow have the toughest run in for sure.

Jaysus Dave. If that happens It will be the 3rd Leinster Ospreys final in the RDS in 4 years. Please no.

Also means you fancy both Welsh Regions to beat Glasgow and Ospreys to beat Leinster in the last round.

If ulster put this curse to bed that keeps their last win v Leinster outside Ravenhill in the same millennium as the battle of Hastings, then they will stroll through their last 3 games with probably 14 points and top the table.

Big focking if though

Bonus points are critical from the current position.

---------- pts...R19.....R20.....R21.....R22.....pts
Leinster.....63....W........W.....BPW.....LBP.....77
Ulster........62....L.......BPW.....W.......BPW....76
Glasgow.....62...W.......LBP.....LBP.......W......72
Ospreys.....54...BPW....BPW.....W........W......72
Scarlets.....54...BPW.....W......BPW......W......72

We could vey easily see 3 teams on 72 points provided both the Ospreys and the Scarlets win their remaining games,
This would have Glasgow missing out on Games won with Ulster hosting the Ospreys and a 5th game this season for Leinster and Scarlets.
Looks like another Leinster v Ospreys final at the RDS to me

You seem to have a rather large slice of optimism re the Welsh sides - esp R21 &22 for the Hairsprays

21st Century Schizoid Man wrote:You seem to have a rather large slice of optimism re the Welsh sides - esp R21 &22 for the Hairsprays

The thing I like about that scenario is. Leinster would go into the last round guaranteed 1st place. (more wins than Ulster and 5 points ahead)

The thing I don't like is the Ospreys still in it.

I honestly do not see the Ospreys loosing a game for the rest of the season, and that is including playoffs, so it is the Ospreys for the title for me, the pack is the strongest in the league and the way they splattered the Dragons pack last weekend, the Blues are in for a tuning this weekend, and Biggar is playing out of his skin. So it is Ospreys all the way for me.

21st Century Schizoid Man wrote:You seem to have a rather large slice of optimism re the Welsh sides - esp R21 &22 for the Hairsprays

The optimism is RE the Scarlets in the hope we can get the 2 TPB needed to reach 72 points, the Ospreys have hit form at the right time again. Been really optimistic I would like to see those results with the exception off Leinster beating the O's last game to leave the Scarlets nicking 3rd place and not having to go back to Dublin again. At least an away trip to Ulster with their injuries would give us a chance of a final spot.

Well they may not loose but they surely will lose !

LordDowlais wrote:I honestly do not see the Ospreys loosing a game for the rest of the season, and that is including playoffs, so it is the Ospreys for the title for me, the pack is the strongest in the league and the way they splattered the Dragons pack last weekend, the Blues are in for a tuning this weekend, and Biggar is playing out of his skin. So it is Ospreys all the way for me.

I think we owe the Os for spoiling our party twice in 3 years. This time we won't be flaked out from winning the Heino. If we get the chance to deny them a spot in the playoffs in round 22 we'll stick the knife in.

The thing is I can't see Glasgow losing at home.

They too have a big pack (beasted some monsters this year) and they're only going to get bigger with Grant, Cusack, McArthur and Swinson coming back in...

That will be one titanic battle in a few weeks time... Gives me shivers just thinking about it.....

My predictions are


So the final standings would be
Ulster 80
Glasgow 78
Leinster 74
Scarlets 69
Ospreys 68

With Ulster vs Scarlets at Ravenhill and Glasgow vs Leinster at Scotstoun

UlstermaninGlasgow wrote:The thing is I can't see Glasgow losing at home.

They too have a big pack (beasted some monsters this year) and they're only going to get bigger with Grant, Cusack, McArthur and Swinson coming back in...

That will be one titanic battle in a few weeks time... Gives me shivers just thinking about it.....

My predictions are

Leinster 63 - 1 - 4 - 5 - 1 = 74
Ulster 62 - 4 - 5 - 4 - 5 = 80
Glasgow 62 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 = 78
Ospreys 54 - 5 - 4 - 1 - 4 = 68
Scarlets 54 - 5 - 1 - 5 - 4 = 69

So the final standings would be
Ulster 80
Glasgow 78
Leinster 74
Scarlets 69
Ospreys 68

With Ulster vs Scarlets at Ravenhill and Glasgow vs Leinster at Scotstoun

now that really is optimtic

For me its:

Leinster 63 - 5 - 1 - 5 - 4 = 78
Glasgow 62 - 5 - 1 - 4 - 4 = 76
Ulster 62 - 0 - 5 - 4 - 4 = 75
Scarlets 54 - 4 - 4 - 5 - 4 = 71
Ospreys 54 - 4 - 5 - 1 - 1 = 65
Munster 47 - 1 - 4 - 4 - 5 = 61

There are two important Glasgow games to come. They play Scarlets away and Ospreys at home. I reckon they'll lose both, have people taking into consideration the potential for that to happen when predicting the final four?