The Crunch: Ireland v England Sunday 10th February 2013

First topic message reminder :

aka L'O'Choc: Irelande v Angleterre Dimanche le 10me Février 2013After going AWOL again yesterday, the French have most likely reduced the 6Ns title to a single game to determine the title.

Such a shame.

Discussion about the game - not about France going walkabout as originally intended.

Teams:

Greater Dublin Representative XXIII

15 - Rob Kearney (UCD/Leinster/42)
14 - Craig Gilroy (Dungannon/Ulster/2)
13 - Brian O'Driscoll (UCD/Leinster/121)
12 - Gordon D'Arcy (Lansdowne/Leinster/72)
11 - Simon Zebo (Cork Constitution/Munster/4)
10 - Jonathan Sexton (St.Mary's College/Leinster/35)
9 - Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster/15)
1 - Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster/36)
2 - Rory Best (Banbridge/Ulster/63)
3 - Mike Ross (Clontarf/Leinster/25)
4 - Mike McCarthy (Buccaneers/Connacht/7)
5 - Donnacha Ryan (Shannon/Munster/24)
6 - Peter O'Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster/10)
7 - Sean O'Brien (UCD/Leinster/23)
8 - Jamie Heaslip (Dublin University/Leinster/53) Captain

Replacements:

16 - Sean Cronin (St. Mary's College/Leinster/23)
17 - David Kilcoyne (UL Bohemians/Munster/3)
18 - Declan Fitzpatrick (Dungannon/Ulster/3)
19 - Donncha O'Callaghan (Cork Constitution/Munster/91)
20 - Chris Henry (Malone/Ulster/5)
21 - Eoin Reddan (Lansdowne/Leinster/48)
22 - Ronan O'Gara (Cork Constitution/Munster/126)
23 - Keith Earls (Young Munster/Munster/35)

The Perfidious Albion

15. Alex Goode (Saracens, 7 caps)
14. Chris Ashton (Saracens, 30 caps)
13. Brad Barritt (Saracens, 12 caps)
12. Billy Twelvetrees (Gloucester Rugby, 1 caps)
11. Mike Brown (Harlequins, 12 caps)
10. Owen Farrell (Saracens, 13 caps)
9. Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers, 29 caps)

1. Joe Marler (Harlequins, 6 caps)
2. Tom Youngs (Leicester Tigers, 5 caps)
3. Dan Cole (Leicester Tigers, 36 caps)
4. Joe Launchbury (London Wasps, 5 caps)
5. Geoff Parling (Leicester Tigers, 13 caps)
6. James Haskell (London Wasps, 46 caps)
7. Chris Robshaw (Harlequins, capt, 13 caps)
8. Tom Wood (Northampton Saints, 10 caps)

Replacements
16. Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints, 43 caps)
17. David Wilson (Bath Rugby, 23 caps)
18. Mako Vunipola (Saracens, 5 caps)
19. Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints, 16 caps)
20. Thomas Waldrom (Leicester Tigers, 4 caps)
21. Danny Care (Harlequins, 38 caps)
22. Toby Flood (Leicester Tigers, 54 caps)
23. Manusamoa Tuilagi (Leicester Tigers, 17 caps)

Well after this this match unless its a draw only one side has a good chance of a GS, Italy no chance of winning the next 4- that being an upset too great to be realistic.

In Dublin...hmmm...big match up indeed.

Hmm never worry about the slam....the big question is who will come away with the moral victory......and will England force Michael D. Higgins to have to walk on the grass ....

profitius wrote:Its too early to judge England yet. They look like they've the makings of a good team coming together. The win over NZ was very good but they lost to a below par injury hit Australia. Who knows.

I was impressed by Twelvetrees. He looks a better player than Barrett. Tuilagi is the new kid on the block and has burst on the scene but it remains to be seen if he has more than one trick in his arsenal. If not he'll get found out quickly.

Ireland are a step up from Scotland and its an away game for this young England team. Can they handle the pressure? Pressure does funny things to players.

Ireland are a bit like France, you never know what to expect. The Irish attack has been very good since the Fiji game in the autumn though and they're looking more dangerous and now look like the best of what the provinces have to offer instead of the predictable shambles of the last few years.

Besides the scrums, one other thing that worries me about Ireland is their kicking game. It was brutal against Wales.

It should be a good game although we could see both teams being overly cautious. Whoever wins is favourites for a grand slam but theres a long way to go still. If Ireland lose it'll mean Kidneys days are numbered.

How many caps does Manu need to not be labelled the new kid on the block? He has 17 caps after all.

I don't think pressure is a problem. It's more about putting in a good performance against a pretty decent Ireland side.

Ireland aren't like France. Ireland generally raise their game for England.

Agree with Beshocked. Tuilagi has been an English international for two years.

For the irish lads, Rory best seams to have gone on to a totally new level in the last 6 months or so especially with his work at the breakdown. He may not have the dynamism carry that keith wood had but for his all round game. Hes getting close to being the best hooker i've seen in a green jersey.

tecphobe wrote:For the irish lads, Rory best seams to have gone on to a totally new level in the last 6 months or so especially with his work at the breakdown. He may not have the dynamism carry that keith wood had but for his all round game. Hes getting close to being the best hooker i've seen in a green jersey.

Seconded. Woody was a legend but if Bestie keeps this form going then he's numero uno for me. Incredible performances over the past 2 seasons from him for province and country. A lions test jersey and some provincial/international silverware in the coming seasons would be just rewards for an incredible player and great ambassador for Irish rugby.

I never really liked Keith Wood that much to be honest.

I preferred Jerry Flannery.

But Best is Best!

beshocked wrote:

profitius wrote:Its too early to judge England yet. They look like they've the makings of a good team coming together. The win over NZ was very good but they lost to a below par injury hit Australia. Who knows.

I was impressed by Twelvetrees. He looks a better player than Barrett. Tuilagi is the new kid on the block and has burst on the scene but it remains to be seen if he has more than one trick in his arsenal. If not he'll get found out quickly.

Ireland are a step up from Scotland and its an away game for this young England team. Can they handle the pressure? Pressure does funny things to players.

Ireland are a bit like France, you never know what to expect. The Irish attack has been very good since the Fiji game in the autumn though and they're looking more dangerous and now look like the best of what the provinces have to offer instead of the predictable shambles of the last few years.

Besides the scrums, one other thing that worries me about Ireland is their kicking game. It was brutal against Wales.

It should be a good game although we could see both teams being overly cautious. Whoever wins is favourites for a grand slam but theres a long way to go still. If Ireland lose it'll mean Kidneys days are numbered.

How many caps does Manu need to not be labelled the new kid on the block? He has 17 caps after all.

I don't think pressure is a problem. It's more about putting in a good performance against a pretty decent Ireland side.

Ireland aren't like France. Ireland generally raise their game for England.

Farrell and Tuilagi are two players who tend to step up a gear in the big matches. Its certainly true that there are some who no matter how talented just dont seem cut out for international rugby, but if you went through the england side those are the two who straight away Id say have proven they can bring their best under pressure.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:

beshocked wrote:

profitius wrote:Its too early to judge England yet. They look like they've the makings of a good team coming together. The win over NZ was very good but they lost to a below par injury hit Australia. Who knows.

I was impressed by Twelvetrees. He looks a better player than Barrett. Tuilagi is the new kid on the block and has burst on the scene but it remains to be seen if he has more than one trick in his arsenal. If not he'll get found out quickly.

Ireland are a step up from Scotland and its an away game for this young England team. Can they handle the pressure? Pressure does funny things to players.

Ireland are a bit like France, you never know what to expect. The Irish attack has been very good since the Fiji game in the autumn though and they're looking more dangerous and now look like the best of what the provinces have to offer instead of the predictable shambles of the last few years.

Besides the scrums, one other thing that worries me about Ireland is their kicking game. It was brutal against Wales.

It should be a good game although we could see both teams being overly cautious. Whoever wins is favourites for a grand slam but theres a long way to go still. If Ireland lose it'll mean Kidneys days are numbered.

How many caps does Manu need to not be labelled the new kid on the block? He has 17 caps after all.

I don't think pressure is a problem. It's more about putting in a good performance against a pretty decent Ireland side.

Ireland aren't like France. Ireland generally raise their game for England.

Farrell and Tuilagi are two players who tend to step up a gear in the big matches. Its certainly true that there are some who no matter how talented just dont seem cut out for international rugby, but if you went through the england side those are the two who straight away Id say have proven they can bring their best under pressure.

True. They probably have had the most criticism thrown at them too. Both have been accused of being one dimensional but both are starting to answer their critics.

The one worry about Tuilagi is that he hasn't played in 3-4 weeks. Not being match sharp can hurt your performance. Look at Alex Goode on the weekend. That was his 2nd game after about a 4-5 week injury.

On reflection I would start 36 and Barritt with Tuilagi to come on with 20-30 minutes to go as a replacement for Barritt.

It was refreshing to see England still do well without Tuilagi as reliance on one or two players can be dangerous. Still though England have not found an actual back up 13 for Manu. Also that left wing spot is still definitely up for grabs.

Theres quite legitimate arguments eitehr way as to start Tuilagi. I dont think either decision can be seen as a bad one. Match sharpness yes, especially up against a guy like BOD whos had plenty of game time to get his game head on ...hang on that took him about 30 seconds didnt it.

I dont really think theres a wrong decision to be made here in terms of the next game.

Its more about the long term direction of the backs, will Catt get his wayand go back to a Brian Ashton style backs set up or do we stick with the Andy Robinson style bishy bashy challenge?

Any combination of the three centres has its merits both now and going forwards. Austin Healy is arguing to use Tuilagi as an impact sub.

I have a feeling SL will actually start 36. As an Ireland fan obviously I would slightly prefer that scenario though 36 isnt to be sniffed at. I just think that given MT has been sidelined for a month (I think) SL may elect to have him come on as an impact sub in the second half.

England were impressive v Scotland and I actually dont think they even hit fourth gear. Shane Horgan reckons that we will have to completely avoid an arm wrestle and take England on out wide. I have to admit I agree with this thinking but we will still have to be ultra physical.

Some Ireland fans will tell you that we have a strong backrow and will match England at the breakdown, however, on the evidence of the last few matches I think England are better than us here.

Ireland used to be a team that had a very high strike rate from first phase ball. I think we are going have to be very crafty and creative and find a way to convert chances without having to go through multiple phase plays. Key to beating England will be really opening the game up and converting all our chances.

That applies to both sides equally, guns. Chances will be at a premium in this game, which I have a feeling will be low-scoring.

In that context, I feel that two of the crucial players will be Barritt and BOD, the defensive fulcrums and organisers of each side. Both will ensure that Sexton, Farrell and the opposition centres have bog all time to do their thing. Certainly the two out-halves can forget about getting the kind of armchair ride that they enjoyed last week (Sexton for the first half). I think that there's no question of Brad being dropped - so it will be one of the attacking guns who warms the English bench for an hour or so.

GunsGerms I agree with that.

Ireland do have a dangerous back three which I feel could do a lot of damage if England give them too much space.

BOD is obviously Ireland's talisman in the backline. Who is best suited to combating him?

GunsGerms wrote:
England were impressive v Scotland and I actually dont think they even hit fourth gear. Shane Horgan reckons that we will have to completely avoid an arm wrestle and take England on out wide. I have to admit I agree with this thinking but we will still have to be ultra physical.

Some Ireland fans will tell you that we have a strong backrow and will match England at the breakdown, however, on the evidence of the last few matches I think England are better than us here.

Shane Horgan is spot on. We'll be mushed if we don't get quick ball and move this England side around, peg them back in their own half and attack the lineout. Get the crowd going.

We need to play like we did against Wales for 45 min but do it for 80. Get BOD, leading the back 3 up in the blitz to put pressure on Tuilagi and the back 3.

The choke tackle is a risky policy against the big English backrow - Haskell, Robshaw etc. are immensely strong and will be able to get the ball on the deck more often than not so that tactic needs to be used wisely and sparingly....try and slow England ball up but not overcommit to the breakdown or give Farrell easy shots at goal.

We need a huge performance on Sunday. Bodies on the line and cool heads all round.

With Darcy out it does put a lot of pressure on BOD and the backrow to keep the tackle count up. really both sets of backs are pretty weak defensively ( aside form a couple of stalwarts) and should give opportunities to the opposition.
I think the second half in particular could become free scoring with the backrows wearing each other down and space opening up. Both teams certainly have the quality in the backs to hurt the other.
Irelands defence tends to rely on a lot of workrate form the forwards ( and BOD), and to be penalty heavy. England have a habit of getting unlocked by fairly innocuous situations and conceding tries to backs. Theres not really a lot of tackling in either sides back 3, but there are tries.

Im assuming Darcy will miss out here. With him in Ireland are perhaps a little less threatening but more solid in defence.

If both him and Earls miss out ( sounds like BOD is fit ) who comes in as a centre?

I like that England / Ireland fans can discuss this key matchup, maybe the 6N decider, without getting bent out of shape, and have a calm friendly discussion. Just take a peek over there in the zoo, AKA the 'bickering' thread to see how juvenile a thread can get.

D'arcy and Earls will be fit I think....at least that is the impression I get from the reports.... if so I'd expect and unchanged lineup....

beshocked wrote:GunsGerms I agree with that.

Ireland do have a dangerous back three which I feel could do a lot of damage if England give them too much space.

BOD is obviously Ireland's talisman in the backline. Who is best suited to combating him?

If I was SL I wouldnt be concerned about combatting BOD. I would concentrate on getting a game plan in place to make sure the England backs have enough ball to do do their own damage.

In the past a blitz defense has always worked really well against Ireland however, Ireland seem to have finally found a way to play against this as seen v Wales.

To defend against BOD it depends what defensive system you are using. However, I will say BOD loves running arcs to suck in defenders. He is a master at doing this and then offloading to support runners as seen in the Zebo try v wales. The England backs will need to trust the man marking BOD and not get sucked in but instead keep an eye on the support players.

Another thing to look out for is that Ireland used decoy runners to great effect v Wales. Rory Best ran decoy lines all day on Saturday and kept the Wales backs guessing. Kearney also did this for the Zebo try. The challenge for the England backs will be to trust their defensive system and not get frustrated and look to break the line and smash someone ala JD2 on Saturday. That way holes will appear.

Hah. Stomch is churning at the thought of this game

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:With Darcy out it does put a lot of pressure on BOD and the backrow to keep the tackle count up. really both sets of backs are pretty weak defensively ( aside form a couple of stalwarts) and should give opportunities to the opposition.
I think the second half in particular could become free scoring with the backrows wearing each other down and space opening up. Both teams certainly have the quality in the backs to hurt the other.
Irelands defence tends to rely on a lot of workrate form the forwards ( and BOD), and to be penalty heavy. England have a habit of getting unlocked by fairly innocuous situations and conceding tries to backs. Theres not really a lot of tackling in either sides back 3, but there are tries.

Im assuming Darcy will miss out here. With him in Ireland are perhaps a little less threatening but more solid in defence.

If both him and Earls miss out ( sounds like BOD is fit ) who comes in as a centre?

I think Darcy will be ok. If not Earls will come into centre Id say.

Apparently cave has been called up as cover, but looks like Earls and Darcy will belight training tomorrow.

I do wonder how much the physicality of last weekends game will have taken its toll on Ireland even if these guys are passed fit to play. Whilst there were no serious injuries theres been a whole host of players in for treatment over the week.
The amount of tackles and defensive rucks they went through as a team was ridiculous. It cant be easy to go through two weeks in a row at that level of ferocity.

Any word on OMahonys concussion? Apparently he needs clearance to play

I think the 8 day turnaround should be enough Peter. The team should be in decent enough nick.

The 3 weeks on the trot affected us last year I believe (and in NZ) but if our players can't back up 2 hard weeks running with an 8 day break then I'd be concerned about their conditioning and the quality of backroom team/physios etc.

If Earls plays and Tuilagi comes back into the England side I'll be phoning the NSPCC. God love ickle Keith, he'll be crying into his coco pops at the thought of it. It's sad that someone so talented has actually gone backwards the more he plays at centre. Tuilagi looks better each time he plays the more he learns to vary his game and that he isn't a winger- there is actually another player outside him. We are like lambs to the slaughter, especially if Ross and Healy come off. Fitzpatrick did ok beside Healy but when Kilcoyne came on Wales made mincemeat of them. In fact make that horsemeat. They both had a mare and yet Deccie in his wisdom has said neigh to the best scrummaging LH we have. Also, I think we should think about bringing in Fitzgerald for Gilroy. Gilroy's kicking game isn't great and the thought of Farrell kicking the ball down his throat all afternoon would be enough to keep young Craig up all night with the trots. Someone really needs to rein Deccie's bad selections in. I see England beating us convincingly but, hay if we get the win I'll take it.

Peter seabiscuit wheeler
Just as you were saying how much would the Wales game have taken out of Ireland, I read this,

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2013/0206/1224329704560.html

It was a physical battle in Cardiff but sore bodies won't come into it against England

They haven’t played a huge amount of games this season – certainly in comparison to the French and English players – and if a fitness planner wanted to design the sort of game that would get them right up to battle-hardness, the Wales game would have been exactly the kind he’d have had in mind......More importantly, I don’t see fatigue being any sort of factor against England on Sunday.

Written by ALAN QUINLAN who knows a few things about physical games,

I agree. There is an 8 day turn around and even though we are missing Ferris, POC and Bowe, three of our best players I am quite happy at the team we have available right now and their fitness levels. The players have access to the best physios and medical staff in the country and should be in good shape.

As long as Darce and Ross last the full 80 we should be ok.

Hookisms and Hyperbole wrote:If Earls plays and Tuilagi comes back into the England side I'll be phoning the NSPCC. God love ickle Keith, he'll be crying into his coco pops at the thought of it. It's sad that someone so talented has actually gone backwards the more he plays at centre. Tuilagi looks better each time he plays the more he learns to vary his game and that he isn't a winger- there is actually another player outside him. We are like lambs to the slaughter, especially if Ross and Healy come off. Fitzpatrick did ok beside Healy but when Kilcoyne came on Wales made mincemeat of them. In fact make that horsemeat. They both had a mare and yet Deccie in his wisdom has said neigh to the best scrummaging LH we have. Also, I think we should think about bringing in Fitzgerald for Gilroy. Gilroy's kicking game isn't great and the thought of Farrell kicking the ball down his throat all afternoon would be enough to keep young Craig up all night with the trots. Someone really needs to rein Deccie's bad selections in. I see England beating us convincingly but, hay if we get the win I'll take it.

Kilcoynes first scrum was in the 75th min when BOD sliced his clearance. He was shoving the Welsh tighthead (with 21st Olly Kohn behind him) while the scrum collapsed on the Irish tighthead/Welsh loosehead side. His second and final scrum was in the 80th minute. He was going forward but the scrum turned due to pressure on the Irish tighhead side. Kilcoyne done well as he has been doing all season in the scrums.

Heres the match. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSSEovES4DY

Agree re Farrell. I've criticised him before but that was probably the best I've ever seen him play v Scotland. To top the NZ effort was some feat.

profitius wrote:

Hookisms and Hyperbole wrote:If Earls plays and Tuilagi comes back into the England side I'll be phoning the NSPCC. God love ickle Keith, he'll be crying into his coco pops at the thought of it. It's sad that someone so talented has actually gone backwards the more he plays at centre. Tuilagi looks better each time he plays the more he learns to vary his game and that he isn't a winger- there is actually another player outside him. We are like lambs to the slaughter, especially if Ross and Healy come off. Fitzpatrick did ok beside Healy but when Kilcoyne came on Wales made mincemeat of them. In fact make that horsemeat. They both had a mare and yet Deccie in his wisdom has said neigh to the best scrummaging LH we have. Also, I think we should think about bringing in Fitzgerald for Gilroy. Gilroy's kicking game isn't great and the thought of Farrell kicking the ball down his throat all afternoon would be enough to keep young Craig up all night with the trots. Someone really needs to rein Deccie's bad selections in. I see England beating us convincingly but, hay if we get the win I'll take it.

Kilcoynes first scrum was in the 75th min when BOD sliced his clearance. He was shoving the Welsh tighthead (with 21st Olly Kohn behind him) while the scrum collapsed on the Irish tighthead/Welsh loosehead side. His second and final scrum was in the 80th minute. He was going forward but the scrum turned due to pressure on the Irish tighhead side. Kilcoyne done well as he has been doing all season in the scrums.

Heres the match. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSSEovES4DY

You dont want too much in the way of evidence against the "perception" of a player. Kilcoyne has clearly been rubbish all year and is just another of DKs Munster preferences. You wouldnt want to get into the arguement that Court looks very ordinary when his buddy Afoa isnt around but then we cant pick Afoa (or Pienaar or Muller etc).

The internecine warriors of Ireland should stand a bit more shoulder to shoulder and united.

Nobody can call this game - certainly not the experts nor the bookies ( http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/ireland-v-england/winner ).

The balance is in the hands of Craig Joubert - so beloved of the French and many dispassionate observers of the RWC Final in 2011.

Hush lads - lets not get facts get in the way of a conspiracy theory.

Munster know more about front rows than anyone:

Horan
Flannery
Hayes
Clohessy
Wood
Ross
Flannery
Kilcoyne
Sheahan
Fogarty
Buckley
Cronin

We'll be the judge of whats a good scrummager.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:Theres quite legitimate arguments eitehr way as to start Tuilagi. I dont think either decision can be seen as a bad one. Match sharpness yes, especially up against a guy like BOD whos had plenty of game time to get his game head on ...hang on that took him about 30 seconds didnt it.

I dont really think theres a wrong decision to be made here in terms of the next game.

Its more about the long term direction of the backs, will Catt get his wayand go back to a Brian Ashton style backs set up or do we stick with the Andy Robinson style bishy bashy challenge?

Any combination of the three centres has its merits both now and going forwards. Austin Healy is arguing to use Tuilagi as an impact sub.

Therefore we should definitely not do it...

A bit of a rambling thought this but here goes. England are rapidly being recognised for trying to develop their game at the breakdown with quick clearouts and few typical infringements like going over off their feet which has been an annoying and unnecessary mistake previously. In the past they have acquired the reputation of slowing opposition ball illegally and finding themselves penalised by refs on reputation rather than actual infringement. I wonder if Ireland may find themselves having to be more careful at the breakdown because the ref is expecting quick ball and feeling that slow ball must be because the opposition is doing something illegally to prevent it.

As far as the game is concerned the pressure to perform is weighted against England I think because of expectation. Ireland are in a no lose situation. If they go down to a big England performance no-one will be much surprised, if they win they will be flying for the rest of the tournament. I have no doubt that this Ireland side is nobody's pushover and can do some real damage. Equally England are on the up but with a lot still to learn. The Irish are a very savvy lot and inexperience may yet have a big roll to play. It promises to be a very interesting afternoon and think it genuinely too close to call.

aitchw wrote:A bit of a rambling thought this but here goes. England are rapidly being recognised for trying to develop their game at the breakdown with quick clearouts and few typical infringements like going over off their feet which has been an annoying and unnecessary mistake previously. In the past they have acquired the reputation of slowing opposition ball illegally and finding themselves penalised by refs on reputation rather than actual infringement. I wonder if Ireland may find themselves having to be more careful at the breakdown because the ref is expecting quick ball and feeling that slow ball must be because the opposition is doing something illegally to prevent it.

As far as the game is concerned the pressure to perform is weighted against England I think because of expectation. Ireland are in a no lose situation. If they go down to a big England performance no-one will be much surprised, if they win they will be flying for the rest of the tournament. I have no doubt that this Ireland side is nobody's pushover and can do some real damage. Equally England are on the up but with a lot still to learn. The Irish are a very savvy lot and inexperience may yet have a big roll to play. It promises to be a very interesting afternoon and think it genuinely too close to call.

Aitchw I disagree. I think Ireland have a lot of expectation on them. They are at home, they have a decent record against England in recent years.England haven't won in Ireland since 2003.

With France losing this could well basically be the championship winning game with both sides going for the grand slam. There's a lot riding on this match.

Both sides have a lot to prove but I think Ireland with home advantage have more pressure on them.

Beshocked, I think the pressure is very much on Ireland.

- Pressure to continue our good record at weekend
- Pressure to prove our consistency
- Pressure to turn provincial form into international form

Im incredible nervous about this game. Much more than I usually am against England.

I like the odds checker link.

To me I think the odds compilers actually think Ireland are ,Very slightly, more than slight favs

Odds on average
Ireland 18/19 and England evens

but more Weight of money is and will go on England.

the odds compilers (whos jobs depend on them being accurate) prob recon than England are 6/5, but the weight of money drives it down to evens

So by my thinking, factoring out the way the weight of money effects odds, and Ireland are in the odds compilers eyes, favourites, but not by much.

This is one of the closest games I've see to call, and a bounch of the ball could decide it.

Beshocked, England actually won the last time the two sides played in Dublin, but your point about England's recent record in Ireland (two wins out of seven this century) is a good one.

I'm not sure that pressure applies to one side more than the other this week. Both will realise that a win will put them into pole position for the championship, but equally, this is just week 2, so there's an awful long way to go and I doubt that visions of a GS are dancing before either of them just yet. Each side has a demanding group of supporters to satisfy, but in each case, I think that there's a general satisfaction with recent progress, tempered with a strain of realism. Losing may or may not happen this week, but it won't be the end of the world even if it does, as long as the performance curve is still upwards.

Both sides should therefore have the freedom to play a free-flowing game, in theory. In practice, because I think both defences are pretty effective in their own ways, I'm not sure that there will be that many chances, but I don't think that this will have much to do with the pressure of the occasion.

red_stag wrote:Beshocked, I think the pressure is very much on Ireland.

- Pressure to continue our good record at weekend
- Pressure to prove our consistency
- Pressure to turn provincial form into international form

Im incredible nervous about this game. Much more than I usually am against England.

I agree. The nerves are mutual.Lots of great match ups.

This is the first Ireland-England game in a while that I actually feel like England could win in Ireland. Normally I am pessimistic about facing Ireland - here we go again...but not this time...

We'll see though won't be. I agree though it's tough to call.

There are so many conflicting assessments of this one. The 1st half performance against Wales was impressive but to see their body language during the 2nd almost reversed my opinion. In the end they did well to dig so deep in defence. England had so little to defend against but handled the brief Scottish revival well enough. They did come under a bit of pressure in the NZ game but this weekend will be different, a real test of where they are in development terms. I know in my heart that there will be set backs for this England team and that it may be necessary in the greater scheme of things but I don't want it to be this weelend. However, if we have to lose a game this tournament I'd rather it be to Ireland than anyone else.

red_stag wrote:Hush lads - lets not get facts get in the way of a conspiracy theory.

Munster know more about front rows than anyone:


Buckley


We'll be the judge of whats a good scrummager.

That one inclusion invalidates your entire post. sorry.

Kingshu wrote:I like the odds checker link.

To me I think the odds compilers actually think Ireland are ,Very slightly, more than slight favs

Odds on average
Ireland 18/19 and England evens

but more Weight of money is and will go on England.

the odds compilers (whos jobs depend on them being accurate) prob recon than England are 6/5, but the weight of money drives it down to evens

So by my thinking, factoring out the way the weight of money effects odds, and Ireland are in the odds compilers eyes, favourites, but not by much.

This is one of the closest games I've see to call, and a bounch of the ball could decide it.

Interesting Khu. All the big bookies seem to have both sides at 10/11. the books on the right of the page go well beyond my gaming understanding as I don't ever bet (well I have but the sum total of them in bookies is less than fifty in my lifetime).

but more Weight of money is and will go on England.

Is interesting in context. Do punters go with their hears or heads. Or when the chance of a reasonable profit is virtually nil, nobody bothers.

A click on ether side's name on the lhs of the page shows odds history seems to suggest no odds drift either way.

LondonTiger wrote:

red_stag wrote:Hush lads - lets not get facts get in the way of a conspiracy theory.

Munster know more about front rows than anyone:


Buckley


We'll be the judge of whats a good scrummager.

That one inclusion invalidates your entire post. sorry.

Not at all. To understand the best you must first understand the worst. We've seen it all in Munster.

As rubbish at it was amazing to think he has been to two RWCs, has a Grand Slam winners medal and a Heineken Cup winners medal.

Punters go with value, greytiger. Basically, you go in with both fists if you think that the bookies are erring on the side of generosity in their odds. Not often the case, but it does happen.

Here, I think they've got it about right. Something like 5/6 each of two by the off, with the draw its usual mean price of about 16s. I can't see a punting angle here, so it has to be no bet and enjoy the game, which won't be hard.

Stephen Donald has a world cup winners meal.

GunsGerms wrote:Stephen Donald has a world cup winners meal.

Exactly and only by knowing Stephen Donald AND Dan Carter can the Kiwis say they truly know fly halves.

So does Ian Balshaw.

red_stag wrote:Hush lads - lets not get facts get in the way of a conspiracy theory.

Munster know more about front rows than anyone:

Horan
Flannery
Hayes
Clohessy
Wood
Ross
Flannery
Kilcoyne
Sheahan
Fogarty
Buckley
Cronin

We'll be the judge of whats a good scrummager.

Dont forget Borlase..... a gem

LondonTiger wrote:

red_stag wrote:Hush lads - lets not get facts get in the way of a conspiracy theory.

Munster know more about front rows than anyone:


Buckley


We'll be the judge of whats a good scrummager.

That one inclusion invalidates your entire post. sorry.

I think you've misunderstood his post

captain carrantuohil wrote:Punters go with value, greytiger. Basically, you go in with both fists if you think that the bookies are erring on the side of generosity in their odds. Not often the case, but it does happen.

Here, I think they've got it about right. Something like 5/6 each of two by the off, with the draw its usual mean price of about 16s. I can't see a punting angle here, so it has to be no bet and enjoy the game, which won't be hard.

Enjoyment, I think is not how I'd describe it.

It will start at best squeaky bum followed by ebbs and flows of tides in turn of optimism and pessimism, elation and despair, triumph and disaster.
Alternatively if one side takes charge from the start, it will bean unbelievable sense of increasing/decreasing sense of rugby heaven/hell.

Afterwards a few may gloat or bleat, but most of us will have a virtual or and a or (no jugs with handles or cold lager for me thanks - I'll have a glass of red).

It's still four days away

I will probably gloat a little if Ireland win. Win lose or draw I look forward to a sing song down the pub. Might even sing swing low again. Why the F is this game on Sunday.

I think we are beginning to see the sytle of rugby England are trying to play...and as an England fan that is very refreshing.

We are beginning to look strong...with excellent players coming through in all position..and competition for places is raising the levels in itself.

However its certainly not perfect. We dropped a few trying to force the pass etc...and some of defence was alarming at times...(something i have noticed from as far back as the SA tour)

Personally i think Lancs will starts the exact same team with the only changes for injuries. Aside form his initial cull of players in the squad he took over, that has been his method...small improvements with little changes in personell...just keep adding to the perfromances.

I do think eventually...we will see 36 and Tuilagi starting at centre for us...hopefully this 6n we will see some gamtime together.