Ulster vs Ospreys

First topic message reminder :

Game on Friday, another sell-out crowd, but like everyone else we're scrabbling around with the Six Nations and injuries, trying to make ends meet. Declan Fitzpatrick, Rory Best, Chris Henry, Iain Henderson, Paddy Jackson and Craig Gilroy are all with the national side. John Afoa and Jared Payne are on leave to ensure they stay fresh on the home straight of the season. And Adam Macklin, Paddy McAllister, Stephen Ferris, Nick Williams, Roger Wilson, Tommy Bowe, Chris Farrell, Peter Nelson and Adam D'Arcy are all still injured.

Selection is further complicated by the news that Darren Cave and Andrew Trimble have been called into the Ireland squad as cover for Earls and D'Arcy- they are included here but aren't likely to be released from tacklebag duty until Thursday.

Forwards (14)

Nigel Brady, Rob Herring, Niall Annett, Callum Black, Ricky Lutton, Andrew Warwick, Tom Court, Lewis Stevenson, Dan Tuohy, Neil McComb, Johann Muller, Mike McComish Robbie Diack, Ali Birch.

Backs (11)

Ruan Pienaar, Paul Marshall, Niall O’Connor, Stuart Olding, Paddy Wallace, Luke Marshall, Darren Cave, Michael Allen, Andrew Trimble, Chris Cochrane, Ricky Andrew.

There is some good news- Johann Muller, Dan Tuohy and Luke Marshall are back and available for selection. But it's a squad with no recognised tighthead, only 3 recognised backrows and only one recognised fullback. Of the props, it is to be hoped Tom Court stays at loosehead- the joke of trying him at 3 is testament to how we will fail to get the best out of him in that position and would further damage his international chances. Of the 4 looseheads in the squad the burden will probably fall on Richard Lutton to wear the 3 shirt with 21 year-old Prop/Hooker Andrew Warwick covering for him on the bench.

I would move the hard-grafting Neil McComb to the blindside flanker as a lineout option and a ball carrier, given how light we are in the backrow. With Jackson missing at 10, it's a good opportunity to look at Stuart Olding outside Ruan Pienaar and Luke Marshall to come off the bench.

Notchs XV;

1. Tom Court
2. Nigel Brady
3. Richard Lutton
4. Johann Muller (c)
5. Dan Tuohy
6. Neil McComb
7. Mike McComish
8. Robbie Diack
9. Ruan Pienaar
10. Stuart Olding
11. Andrew Trimble
12. Paddy Wallace
13. Darren Cave
14. Michael Allen
15. Ricky Andrew

16. Rob Herring 17. Andrew Warwick 18. Callum Black 19. Lewis Stevenson 20. Ali Birch 21. Paul Marshall 22. Luke Marshall 23. Chris Cochrane.

red_stag wrote:Notch - if Earls and Darcy are out/doubts then both of Fitzgerald and McFadden will start. That puts McSharry on the bench.

If we assume that Earls and Darcy are missing (which is what any responsible team has to do - cover the worst case scenario) then we need someone to be available as one injury will see McSharry starting and nobody on the bench.

No, it doesn't. Earls was on the bench not starting. Thats one replacement to the bench and one replacement to the starting team with at least two additional backs in the squad to cover injuries (McSharry and Jackson). In addition to this, if there are any further unforeseen injuries then Trimble, Cave or Henshaw can be asked to stay on.

Once again, you are arguing against points I'm not making. Which is patronising and frustrating.

My sole point was to say if Trimble and Cave aren't released for Ulster duty once we know they are not needed for Ireland duty for the sake of an extra day holding tacklebags in training, it would be frustrating. Once we know they are not needed again they should be released to their province to get gametime.

I don't even see why this is up for debate. I understand the needs of the national team but I'm going to look out for the needs of my team as well.

Notch,

I understand that but firstly you can't posisbly be claiming that Paddy Jackson be suitable cover for centre/wing just so Trimble/Cave can play a Rabo game?

More importantly though the only point I'm making to you is that with two centres as serious injury concerns is stretches our resources thin.

I agree with you in full if its clear that they aren't needed they should play. However I dont believe it will be clear by tomorrow if they are needed or not. For precaution they should be kept.

Worst case scenario, they are both out- we still have cover without the three additional players in McSharry.

If Kidney isn't willing to back him, he shouldn't be there.

This is what a backline without D'Arcy and Earls looks like;

9 Murray
10 Sexton
11 Zebo
12 McFadden
13 O'Driscoll
14 Gilroy
15 Kearney

21 Reddan 22 O'Gara 23 Fitzgerald

McSharry, Jackson

If anyone else 11-15 additionally gets injured, Fitzgerald starts and McSharry moves to the bench. Jackson doesn't even come into it.

A situations where both Trimble and Cave would be needed would be if;

-D'Arcy and Earls both fail to recover
-Three additional players pick-up injuries in light pre-match training/the warm-up.

Seems unlikely doesn't it?

I'm sure Declan Kidney would love to have a dozen players on standby, but the downside outweighs the upside. Ireland have the most obscure chance of needing them after Thursday, Ulster definitely need them If Cave and Trimble get gametime this week (same thing for Tom Court, Robbie Henshaw etc.) then they are going to be sharper if called up next week. If I thought there was any chance at all they will be needed past the Captains Run, my attitude would be different.

Notch,

So yes we've arrived at a situation on Friday morning where Darcy and Earls (who are already injured) fail to recover.

And we go for that team. Fitzgerald takes a bang in training and is out. I understand that McSharry comes in but ultimately there must always be one reserve in the event of last minute injury (see the Freddy Puccariello incident).

I wouldn't have all of them stay. Just saying that it may not be as easy as you'd like it to be if Darcy and Earls are out.

At that stage you have Jackson, but yes- in that instance you can recall one player.

But given that the bulk of training will be done before kickoff at Ulster, injuries in the two days before the game are unlikely. Players won't be taking contact the day before the match for that very reason.

Worst case scenario I can see they need to keep one of Trimble, Cave or Henshaw.

Yes but Notch in fairness if Darcy and Earls are not there we are one injury away from no cover.

Ireland v England is much more important than Ulster v Ospreys.

Injuries may be unlikely but that isn't enough of a reason to send players back to Galway and Belfast.

red_stag wrote:Yes but Notch in fairness if Darcy and Earls are not there we are one injury away from no cover.

Ireland v England is much more important than Ulster v Ospreys.

Injuries may be unlikely but that isn't enough of a reason to send players back to Galway and Belfast.

Two injuries! To be honest, unless we have some sort of food poisoning situation- I can't envisage any situation where both Cave and Trimble are in the matchday squad.

This is about where you draw the line. For instance, we are one injury away from no cover at all at loosehead, tighthead, scrum-half, hooker etc.

You could say we need a 38-man squad. 23 matchday and 15 non-playing reserves. This would be a bit much. What you're saying is we need cover for the cover. I get that. But we still have to field 1 national side, 1 U20s side and 4 provincial sides. We can't afford to have 38-40 players in camp over the weekend.

Let the provinces give players up when they are well and truly needed.

I should note now that I opposed the introduction of the Italian sides on the basis it would result in situations just like this!

Having full provincial and international games on the same weekend really is a lose-lose situation for all parties. This is one of the few weekends where this is a problem. And its a bigger problem for the Pro12 than other leagues because of the thinner resources of the competing sides.

We just can't handle it and still put out teams that will keep the quality of the league as high as our competitors.

Notch the crux of it is whether you determine if a player is needed or not.

Unless someone here has inside infromation from the camp I would say no one here is in a position to judge whether Trimble, Cave or anyone else is needed.....only assume that if they have been called up and retained then there is some requirement for them to be there, be it as water carriers, tackle bag holder, injury cover or whatever.... roles that have to be performed whether you deem them important or not.

If they aren't needed then they will be released otherwise they won't but this cannot be determined just on whether they play or not.

I don't see it as that big a deal. All teams are in the same boat. We use academy players or dip into the AIL feeder teams - Munster used to play the likes of Gerry Hurley (scrumhalf) when we had O'Leary and Stringer gone, or Ger Slattery (hooker) to cover when Sherry and Varley and Flannery were unavailable.

Stop worrying about it, accept the natural handicap that comes with being a successful team and (hopefully) enjoy Ulster and Ireland having successful seasons by using our resources to best of abilities.

Notch wrote:
You could say we need a 38-man squad. 23 matchday and 15 non-playing reserves. This would be a bit much. What you're saying is we need cover for the cover. I get that. But we still have to field 1 national side, 1 U20s side and 4 provincial sides. We can't afford to have 38-40 players in camp over the weekend.

Thats only true if all games are deemed of equal importance, as the national team takes precedence its the other sides who make do not the other way round. Its the same for everyone.

Fitzgerald and McFadden will likely be retained whether they play or not too.

Yes indeed. I accept this is the case.

But from a fans point of view, I'm not going to be able to make myself care more about the national team and less about Ulster. I've tried. I still support the national team and I'm going down to Dublin to do just that.

But I suppose on the rare ocassions when the two come into conflict you discover which team is more important to you, and the answer sometimes surprises you. It's not always the team that everyone else sees as being more important.

rodders wrote:

Notch wrote:
You could say we need a 38-man squad. 23 matchday and 15 non-playing reserves. This would be a bit much. What you're saying is we need cover for the cover. I get that. But we still have to field 1 national side, 1 U20s side and 4 provincial sides. We can't afford to have 38-40 players in camp over the weekend.

Thats only true if all games are deemed of equal importance, as the national team takes precedence its the other sides who make do not the other way round. Its the same for everyone.

Fitzgerald and McFadden will likely be retained whether they play or not too.

So why is that not the case then? Why do international teams generally name a 25-man squad for matchdays and not a 40-man squad?

I mean, there's precedence and there's a smart use of resources. Its not a smart use of resources to have players sitting out weekends when they don't have to. Obviously its a calculated risk, but you have to take it. The national team takes obvious precedence but we can't have too many players sitting on their hands on a what if. Somewhere between two and five. Not fifteen.

Notch you do have it to some extent.

We don't need a 40 man squad but I would say that we require a panel of 31-33.

That's a match day squad of 23 plus a replacement for each position on the subsbench.

Kidneys original squad was supplemented to combat injuries to Earls, Darcy and O'Mahony.

If they are fit to play nothing will happen. If not we need cover for cover.

This is more replacements than other international sides take. England are coming over with a 25-man squad.

I see Robbie Henshaw is set to play for the U20s on Friday, with Connachts blessing.

Notch wrote:Yes indeed. I accept this is the case.

But from a fans point of view, I'm not going to be able to make myself care more about the national team and less about Ulster. I've tried. I still support the national team and I'm going down to Dublin to do just that.

But I suppose on the rare ocassions when the two come into conflict you discover which team is more important to you, and the answer sometimes surprises you. It's not always the team that everyone else sees as being more important.

Well thats only an issue if you feel there's a conflict between the two. Given that we have a top down set up where the long terms success of each is interdependent I struggle to see where such a scenario can arise.

I would suggest with a very straight face that Ulster rugby will gain far more from Ireland beating England on Saturday than by beating Ospreys.

Ireland need a successful Ulster but all the provinces need a successful Ireland otherwise interest in the sport will wane across the country and the coffers will run dry, regardless of whether Ravenhill is sold out every week or not.

SO ANYWAY –

The only forward not in the 23 will be one of the hookers. I’d leave Annett out – good prospect, but with Lutton and Warwick in the mix, we need experience. I’d also spring Tuohy from the bench – it’s risky starting two second rows who might both be a bit rusty, albeit Tuohy and Muller are a better balance.

1) Court
2) Herring
3) Lutton
4) Muller
5) Stevenson
6) McComish
7) Birch
8) Diack

And the bench:

16) Black
17) Brady
18) Warwick
19) McComb
20) Tuohy

I’d really like to see Olding at outhalf, so I’d rather see Paddy start at 12, again to provide experience. Assuming Trimble and Cave are released and avoid lynching by frothing 606V2 posters, I’d play

9) Pienaar
10) Olding
11) Trimble
12) Wallace
13) Cave
14) Allen
15) Andrew

If they are missing, Allen to 13, Cochrane to 11, Neil "new boy" Walsh to 14. Luke Marshall on the bench either way, but to get significant time on the pitch.

I'd also see it as important to give Olding a chance. When we've been without PJ and he's replaced NOC off the bench, he's brought more to the party than Niall.

Paddy Wallace can always play 10 (McLaughlin used to like playing him at 10 from time to time) and then Marshall to start with Cave.

You'll cut em to shreds!

Notch wrote:I'd also see it as important to give Olding a chance. When we've been without PJ and he's replaced NOC off the bench, he's brought more to the party than Niall.

Yep. And now that PJ's 21, he's getting on a bit by Ulster backline standards.

Notch wrote:

rodders wrote:

Notch wrote:
You could say we need a 38-man squad. 23 matchday and 15 non-playing reserves. This would be a bit much. What you're saying is we need cover for the cover. I get that. But we still have to field 1 national side, 1 U20s side and 4 provincial sides. We can't afford to have 38-40 players in camp over the weekend.

Thats only true if all games are deemed of equal importance, as the national team takes precedence its the other sides who make do not the other way round. Its the same for everyone.

Fitzgerald and McFadden will likely be retained whether they play or not too.

So why is that not the case then? Why do international teams generally name a 25-man squad for matchdays and not a 40-man squad?

I mean, there's precedence and there's a smart use of resources. Its not a smart use of resources to have players sitting out weekends when they don't have to. Obviously its a calculated risk, but you have to take it. The national team takes obvious precedence but we can't have too many players sitting on their hands on a what if. Somewhere between two and five. Not fifteen.

The numbers are irrelevent. What is relevent is that it is the coaches job to decide how many resources he needs in camp both for match day and preperation based on who is fit and available.

For example, if all our centres are advised to sit out training until thursday as a precaution then you have to call up replacements otherwise you can't prepare for the game.

Another scenario is you may want to call up some players to perform a particular role in training i.e. Jennings as Pocock during the RWC, to prepare for a particular opposition tactic or player. You may just want to keep the existing squad members on their toes.

There are all sorts of scenarios where you may need additional resources beyond the 25 or so matchday players. We don't know exactly what is going on so it is impossible to say player x is needed and player y isn't.

red_stag wrote:Paddy Wallace can always play 10 (McLaughlin used to like playing him at 10 from time to time) and then Marshall to start with Cave.

You'll cut em to shreds!

I thought about that too, but I'm not sure if Marshall is ready to start the game- he's back from injury earlier than expected. He'll definitely be involved.

I reckon first 50 minutes start with Olding, Wallace, Cave and then finish with Wallace, Marshall and Cave. According to Gerry Thornley D'Arcy and Earls are expected to take a full part in training on Friday so that would be very welcome if it means we at least get Cave back. Preference for outhalf is Olding, Wallace, NOC and Pienaar are in that order.

What I don;t want to see is Tom Court at tighthead and Ruan Pienaar at 10. Both positions that they get asked to play despite being waaaay better at their main position. The thing is, this week, we have four looseheads in the squad and no tightheads. I still hope Court starts at 1 as much as I hope Ruan plays 9. Probably no-one in the squad this week has a future at 3 for Ulster, but Court less so than anyone! He can be influential on the other side of the scrum

Notch could Tom Court make a permanent move from loosehead to tighthead when John Afoa leaves?

01 Paddy McAllister
02 Rory Best
03 Tom Court

red_stag wrote:Notch could Tom Court make a permanent move from loosehead to tighthead when John Afoa leaves?

01 Paddy McAllister
02 Rory Best
03 Tom Court

You're a bad man stag.....

Why would the best LH in Europe switch sides?

rodders wrote:

red_stag wrote:Notch could Tom Court make a permanent move from loosehead to tighthead when John Afoa leaves?

01 Paddy McAllister
02 Rory Best
03 Tom Court

You're a bad man stag.....

Why would the best LH in Europe switch sides?

Not sure? I'll be sure to ask Kilcoyne.

red_stag wrote:

rodders wrote:

red_stag wrote:Notch could Tom Court make a permanent move from loosehead to tighthead when John Afoa leaves?

01 Paddy McAllister
02 Rory Best
03 Tom Court

You're a bad man stag.....

Why would the best LH in Europe switch sides?

Not sure? I'll be sure to ask Kilcoyne.

You might need to wait on that stag... they're still trying to dig him out of the millenium stadium turf.....

red_stag wrote:Notch could Tom Court make a permanent move from loosehead to tighthead when John Afoa leaves?

01 Paddy McAllister
02 Rory Best
03 Tom Court

No!



Not even a little bit. There's no tighthead in that front row!

rodders wrote:

red_stag wrote:

rodders wrote:

red_stag wrote:Notch could Tom Court make a permanent move from loosehead to tighthead when John Afoa leaves?

01 Paddy McAllister
02 Rory Best
03 Tom Court

You're a bad man stag.....

Why would the best LH in Europe switch sides?

Not sure? I'll be sure to ask Kilcoyne.

You might need to wait on that stag... they're still trying to dig him out of the millenium stadium turf.....

Yup after his two scrums. Fitzpatrick was on the field a good five minutes at that stage and every knows after three minutes he is gasping for air!

What has really impressed me about Kilcoyne at international level has been his carrying in the HEC...

Don Alfonso wrote:What has really impressed me about Kilcoyne at international level has been his carrying in the HEC...

Don, please your embarassing yourself. Everyone knows that form isn't used in selections.

No, it's strange.

Jokes and wums aside I think form is highly over rated.

Theres a place for it but some gameplan, tactics and proven consistency are also important.

Not saying I agree with all Deccies calls - for example I think no matter what criteria you use O'Gara can't justify his selection.

Just form is just one factor amongst many.

Like which province you play for...

<turns handle, steps back, takes cover...>

Don Alfonso wrote:Like which province you play for...

<turns handle, steps back, takes cover...>

If you believe the men in the tin foil hats

red_stag wrote:Jokes and wums aside I think form is highly over rated.

Theres a place for it but some gameplan, tactics and proven consistency are also important.

Not saying I agree with all Deccies calls - for example I think no matter what criteria you use O'Gara can't justify his selection.

Just form is just one factor amongst many.

True. What I don't understand is the Court decision. I would have thought we need to have good options in the scrum with England and France in particular looking to target us there. I can't understand the rugby rationale. O'Mahony for Henry makes sense when you consider how our pack is set up to contest the breakdown, regardless of the fact Henry was in better form going into the competition. The same is true for Gilroy- Trimble has been in much better form for Ulster and if Bowe was fit he would quite easily be keeping Gilroy out of the team. Yet Gilroy has qualities that fit more into this new philosophy of back play Les Kiss is starting to develop now he's been freed of the responsibility of defence.

But is another ball carrier on the bench really as important as an out and out scrummager?

Why I keep questioning this selection is I can't make it make sense from the rugby PoV. I remember an interview before Christmas when Court made reference to certain other things like players youth or marketability possibly influencing selection and I can't for the life of me find it.

I'll be not too happy if we get beaten up in the scrum and Kilcoyne doesn't improve it when he comes on. I'm a very big exponent of the scrum being the absolute number one priority when assessing prop forwards. Lot of games Ulster have won this year have been due to points won from scrum penalties. That front row of Court, Best and Afoa have won more games for us than your Pienaars or your Williams' or your young tyros... I'm staggered we're only looking at 1 out of 2 of the IQ players when our scrum has been such a weakness for so long.

Ross & Fitzpatrick are completely different types of THs to Afoa though. I'd imagine the Ireland management want a bit of mobility in the front row and that is why Healy (who has always been preferred to Court even when he was giving away any number of penalties) and Kilcoyne.

He seems to have a great attitude from what some of his coaches (Smal & Penney) have said about Kilcoyne as well.

Sin é wrote:Ross & Fitzpatrick are completely different types of THs to Afoa though.

I think that the politest way I've seen anyone called "fat and unfit"

Tom Court is one of the best scummaging loosehead in europe if not the best, his non inclusion in the Irish team is baffling.

red_stag wrote:

Sin é wrote:Ross & Fitzpatrick are completely different types of THs to Afoa though.

I think that the politest way I've seen anyone called "fat and unfit"

Stag,

Should that sentence have the word "respectively" at the end or are you using both adjectives to describe both players?

red_stag wrote:Jokes and wums aside I think form is highly over rated.

... a Munster man would say that.....

red_stag wrote:

Sin é wrote:Ross & Fitzpatrick are completely different types of THs to Afoa though.

I think that the politest way I've seen anyone called "fat and unfit"

Hahaha, too true. It's true we lack any quality whatsoever at tighthead. True and depressing.

If there was some way we could just Irish-ize Afoa and Botha and name those two in our matchday squad our 6N chances would go through the roof! It's very dispiriting the IRFU haven't yet moved to set up some kind of central Academy system for young tightheads as a priority.

red_stag wrote:

Sin é wrote:Ross & Fitzpatrick are completely different types of THs to Afoa though.

I think that the politest way I've seen anyone called "fat and unfit"

Those two should hope that Jerry Flannery does not get to critique them on the national airwaves considering he called Kilcoyne a 'fat mess' last week and then had the cheek to tweet Killer about how he gave him "a good pump on todayfm"

Was it on here we were talking about Ferris? He's due back in three or four weeks. Probably out of the Lions then

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/21350631?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

He's either the worlds unluckiest player or the worlds most injury prone. Either way, if he's fit by the end of the month- we're in business. We could really use a lad like Stephen Ferris.

It's amazing when we were called a one-man team just a few seasons ago- Ulster are nothing without Ferris/Pienaar/Muller etc. Ferris has only played one and a half games this season. Johann Muller has only played in one Heineken Cup game. Tommy Bowe has missed most of the season through injury.

I just hope we have a decent roster of players available for Saracens because we haven't ever once seen all of those big name players on the pitch at the same time this season. We know Bowe won't be there though.

VinceWLB wrote:Tom Court is one of the best scummaging loosehead in europe if not the best, his non inclusion in the Irish team is baffling.

In the 23? I wouldn't say there is much between Kilcoyne and Court, I would have gone with Tom though. No one has seen how good these lads really are without Botha and Afoa though. I would have Court ahead in that department at the moment though.

Thomond wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:Tom Court is one of the best scummaging loosehead in europe if not the best, his non inclusion in the Irish team is baffling.

In the 23? I wouldn't say there is much between Kilcoyne and Court, I would have gone with Tom though. No one has seen how good these lads really are without Botha and Afoa though. I would have Court ahead in that department at the moment though.

With Afoa on his holidays, Fitzpatrick with Ireland, not sure Ulster would be able to release Court as well as the experience levels are pretty shallow after Afoa, Fitzpatrick & Court are taken out of the equation.

Wise up Sin. You think Ulster get a say in it?

Black is an able deputy for court. It's a lack of THs that's ulsters issue

Notch wrote:Wise up Sin. You think Ulster get a say in it?

Yes. Particularly in key positions like props, hookers and scrum/outhalfs.

Eric Elwood isn't standing in Henshaws way this weekend - i.e., he decided to let him play for the U20s. Ulster withdrew Jackson from the U20s from the JWC. I imagine that the availability of Hanrahan was a factor that he wasn't required to go.

Standulstermen wrote:Black is an able deputy for court. It's a lack of THs that's ulsters issue

And you'd want an experienced LH with your inexperienced THs.