Indian Wells Day 9 (MOTD: Murray vs Del Potro)

First topic message reminder :

It's time for the first MS1000 of the year! Red and I will be updating the opening post each day with previews of matches that catch the eye, as well as completed results and draws once the tournament moves along a little. If anyone wants to contribute, please do shoot one of us a PM!

96 players are in action with 32 seeds getting a bye into the second round, meaning that as Cogen highlighted, this is the first event since Wimbledon 2011 (at least) where all of the top players in the world are in action. A few of the narratives are the possibility that Federer could be overhauled by Murray at #2, Djokovic looking to continue his unbeaten start to the season, Nadal's triumphant return to hard courts, and numerous other players in reasonable nick - can they challenge for the title, or at least create a few upsets?

Prize: A cool $1 million ($5.4 million purse), and the invaluable 1000 ranking points.
Defending champion is Roger Federer, who defeated John Isner in the 2012 final.
Updated draw on the ATP site.

Preview from Red:


Andy Murray is on the hunt for his maiden Indian Wells title. He has reached the quarter final here, for the first time since he reached the final in 2009, but has a tough task to complete if he is to get his hands on the trophy. He is up against Argentine Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarters today, and if he gets through that he can potentially face Djokovic and Nadal in the next two rounds. In his Round 4 match Murray was not at his best, and looked irritated at the end of his tight 2 set win against Berlocq. Berlocq complained that Murray was taking too long between points, Murray complained that Berlocq was grunting too loudly, and well... I think Berlocq is not on Andy's Christmas card list anymore. With the world number 2 ranking potentially on the line if he reaches the final, Murray fans will be hoping a dismissal of Del Potro will help lighten his mood.

Juan Martin Del Potro has never won a Masters 100 title before. Will this be the week he breaks his duck? He has been on good form so far this tournament, an improvement to his relatively mediocre start to 2013. However he has not yet been tested, and with all respects to Bjorn Phau, a fixture against Andy Murray will be a real step up. In Dubai Del Potro tested Djokovic in both sets, but mentally let himself down in the key moments. Will the same happen here against the Scot? The Argentinian's record against Murray isn't great, and he will have to raise his game if he wants to have a chance of winning.

Key Tactics: Murray has a convincing 5-1 lead over Del Potro in the H2H, with Juan's only win coming on clay in 2009. Murray won the last two matches these two played (also both in 2009), and he will fancy himself to continue this run of wins and extend it today. For Del Potro to win, he must be extremely aggressive, in longer rallies Murray will coast. The higher bounce of the surface should suit Del Potro, as Murray's tactic of the low slice which has worked so well against him will be negated. Thus the onus is on Del Potro to force the play, and big serving and aggressive hitting will be his only chance of winning.

Predictions: I think Murray has too much variety and nous for Del Potro, I see the 2012 USO champion winning in straight sets: 6-3 6-4.

Top man, Novak. Not playing well but gives the point to Dimi following a wrong line call on a first serve.

Haas complaining about the time rule and Steve Ulrich called it 'Crazy'

Mad for Chelsea wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:

Mad for Chelsea wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:Whoa now that was a choke by Maggy dumping a FH into the net. Haas mini break 2-1

a choke? by El Mug? you surprise me

It was the tighest FH I have seen this year!

true, even by El Mug's epic choking standards that was a really awful miss. Have to applaud Haas for the turn around though, took his chance superbly on the BP at 4-5. How Almagro will rue his easy FH on MP where he hit the ball straight at Haas.

Aye it was a poor shot. His body just totally froze up.

Haas deserves enormous credit. I thought his head went at 5-4 down after the exchange with Ulrich. Good to have a helping friend on court like Maggy

HM Murdoch wrote:Top man, Novak. Not playing well but gives the point to Dimi following a wrong line call on a first serve.

I hope umpires take note of this, and start making those calls. Fact is, an "out" call on a serve will almost never affect the returner, and if the subsequent return is out then the server should have the point. Unfortunately this is rarely the case. One particularly striking example (though a little different) that I remember is the Robson vs Na Li match at last year's US Open, where Robson hit a strong return plumb on the baseline, which Na half-volleyed well wide. It was called out late, well after Na had hit the ball, but inexplicably the points was replayed...

So yes, top man Novak, that was a great bit of sportsmanship, can think of very very few players in the history of the game who would have done that

Phew. Glad Haas won. I just dropped nearly 1,500 places on the ATP Challenge from about 1,000 to about 2,500 because I stupidly picked Juan Monaco to beat Querrey.

Hopefully the points from Haas will bump me back up close to where I was again.

Dimi folding here. Nice player but all the improvement now needed is upstairs.
If he can sort his head out he's got one hell of a game and is a huge server...his 2nd serves are probably averaging 105-110mph, almost Sampras like. First serve nearly always 130+, never knew he served this big.

not much good if he makes four DFs when serving for the set though...

My problem with Dimitrov is his tennis is very high risk, he invariably dips towards the back end of sets when the stakes get higher and tension starts to grow. A classic example is the first set here: Djokovic wasn't playing well, he barely made a winner from 2-5 down to the end of it, and was still making errors. Dimitrov should really have closed it out comfortably. Don't get me wrong, I like Dimitrov's game, though I'm not so sure he's the next big thing (people tend to go a little crazy over a SHBH), but he needs to find a bit more safety in his game at times.

Strange one from Dimi.

His game is much closer than I realised to challenging the top guys.

His head however, is further from challenging them than I thought. Totally imploded today.

Novak not really at the races today but still ended up winning pretty comfortably. That reflects poorly on Dimi.

Agreed. Right now he's just potential...flashy and powerful but low %.
He only won 2 more games from being 5-2 up, that's a ridiculous fold.
To get to the next level he needs to improve upstairs...not sure Tillstrom is the guy to do it. He needs a Lendl (slam winner) in his corner.

It was actually very similar to his capitulation against Murray in the Brisbane final, though worse if anything (Murray at least got the ball back in play to break back, and did play a fine TB in the first set). That was two months ago, which may not seem a long time, but there's no sign of improvement whatsoever for me there,

another on the cards? Berlocq up a set on Nishikori

I actually left when Dimi was 4-1 up, have come back and sadly am not all that surprised. I have to say that capitulating in that second set is particularly poor, he should've at least fought a little more than that! Thanks for the updates all, it's fun reading back through the posts

Glad Haas won, and Querrey just edges through too. I would've given Berlocq no chance before this match but...!

Djokovic in his Sky interview said the courts were extremely slow, ideal for clay-courters. Notable that Berlocq is absolutely destroying Kei so far, which might tend to support that theory!

HM Murdoch wrote:Strange one from Dimi.

His game is much closer than I realised to challenging the top guys.

His head however, is further from challenging them than I thought. Totally imploded today.

Novak not really at the races today but still ended up winning pretty comfortably. That reflects poorly on Dimi.

His form has dipped a bit, I don't think Novak is playing well enough to win this thing. My problem is really with Dimitrov's return of serve, Djoko was playing very poorly today a more experienced top level pro would have beat him today or at least won the first serve. He is going to need better form than the first two matches if he wants to make it through the next two rounds. Off to go hit the ball myself fellas take care.

Silver wrote:...unless Nishikori's somewhat brittle knees start to give him hassle, this should be another routine win for him given his performance earlier in the year against the same opponent.

Carlos, you're making me look a fool

Murray survives the barrage and is now a break up on Mr Lu.

comfortable for Murray there. Lu didn't really have much strategy beyond trying to blast Murray off court which was always going to be a tough ask. Murray hit the ball quite well, though he stood up a bit early on a few BHs. Saved all five BPs he had to face, while pretty efficient at taking his own chances (4 from 6). Returned well, one return in particular (at 15-30 in the last game) he seemed to be hitting the ball almost on the service line, always a good sign when he's aggressive like that on return I feel.

Murray looks really good and focused, I am feeling good about picking Andy in this one. Novak looks scratchy, Nadal looks good but first hardcourt tournament in some time, and fed hasn't shown good form in recent weeks.

It is a shame Dimitrov doesn't appear to be handling the pressure well. Hopefully it is something he will grow out of soon, then he will a player to be reckoned with

socal1976 wrote:Murray looks really good and focused, I am feeling good about picking Andy in this one. Novak looks scratchy, Nadal looks good but first hardcourt tournament in some time, and fed hasn't shown good form in recent weeks.

I certainly wouldn't go that far ....yet. Against Donskoy he played junk tennis (perhaps rust played a part) for the first half of the first set and gradually improved to come through an against Lu he did look better but I don't like the look of the court speeds. They seem very slow to me and I don't think that will suit Andy. In short he is improving match by match but Djoko, Federer and Nadal have been more impressive so far.

I don't agree with that at all actually CC, Djokovic was dreadful for the first set yesterday (by his standards), but Dimitrov gifted it away, while he had a real lapse against Fognini too. Murray was really rusty to start off (perhaps understandably) but got better and better as it went on, and yesterday was a pretty solid effort. Once again though it's incredibly tough to judge on opening rounds (especially as Nadal has only played a couple of sets so far). I'd be surprised if the usual suspects aren't around in the semis, and from then on as we know anything can happen.

I do think this court will favour Djokovic over Murray though, you're right there.

Andy is improving but I wouldn't put him in a category of favourite for the title. The court speed does look very slow and probably accounts for Berlocq getting to the 4th Round considering clay is his strongest surface. We will get a better idea of what nick Andy is in should he reach the quarters and face Del Potro.

some brief thoughts on today's matches, all quite intriguing for different reasons.

Anderson vs Simon: Anderson is on a cracking run of form here, with some very good wins under his belt (including of course Ferrer). Simon struggled past Paire in the previous round (not sure how, in the first set he could barely serve, but switched off after that). I fancy Anderson to have a bit too much firepower and take this one.

Tsonga vs Raonic: an interesting match-up. Tsonga traditionally struggles against the big servers though he's improved recently there. Their only previous meeting famously went to 25-23 in the third at the Olympics. The slowness of the court should help Tsonga get into more return games, while Raonic didn't impress me much against Cilic. I think Tsonga will take this one.

Berdych vs Gasquet: two players in pretty good form. Berdych made the final in Dubai while Gasquet disposed of Janowicz impressively in the previous round. I think on a slow court Gasquet will struggle to hit through Berdych who takes this one fairly comfortably.

Federer vs Wawrinka: the swiss duel, one where the master usually comes out on top. If Fed's back holds out he'll win, Wawrinka's form hasn't been stellar recently.

Nadal vs Gulbis: Gulbis is in the form of his life and has troubled Nadal in their previous meetings without winning any. Nadal is slowly getting back to his best, and on the slower court I think will make life too awkward for Gulbis.

Murray vs Berlocq: first meeting between these two. Berlocq obviously in very good form, but suspect Murray's returning serve too well, and will get into most of Berlocq's service games to take a comfortable win.

Haas vs Del Potro: I'm actually going for an upset in this one. Del Potro's form has been a bit up and down recently (for instance hasn't beaten a top 20 player this year) while Haas showed great mental strength to fight back against Almagro. I can see Haas using the slice backhand to decent effect and Del Potro being a bit frustrated by not being able to hit through the court.

Djokovic vs Querrey: Querrey remains the last man to beat Djokovic on the ATP tour, but can't see him getting much of a sniff here. The slow courts will negate his big weapons, and Djokovic will just wear him down.

M for Chelsea. Gulbis may be in the form of his life but I've learned from bitter experience never to back him, never to talk up his chances.
Rafa will win in straight sets - comfortably.
I'm really pleased Rafa is back. Have never liked his style of play but he does add something different to the big four equation (to mix metaphors).
Reckon people will soon start pencilling him in as a favourite for RG.

Reckon people will soon start pencilling him in as a favourite for RG.



William Hill already has

I like the stylistic matchups here in the round of 16. Querrey v. Djoko, Gulbis v. Nadal and Berdy v. Gazza look to me to be very intriguing matches. Gulbis could win against Nadal, I think he is one of the few players in the draw that has the athleticism and power to dictate to Nadal. Now will he do it or will he go on another walkabout, who knows. But if I was Nadal I wouldn't take this match lightly and would have more concern than maybe a typical 4th round match. Haas v. Del PO is also another very good matchup.

I honestly could see Novak losing soon, to me he has looked less than impressive in this tournament almost like he doesn't quite want this thing badly enough subconsciously.

Nice analysis MfC, socal. I also think Novak is susceptible right now, but he's got an easy opponent in comparison to the rest so perhaps another match might allow him to tune up a bit and sort out the mental lapses. A demolition of Querrey is what he should be looking for.

Didn't realise all eight matches were in play today...

Can't beat this for a day of tennis huh Silver, in California we know how to have a festival of tennis.

Mmm. Who should I worry more about? Roger or Rafa?

I agree about Novak. He seems to be lacking a bit of focus and isn't currently looking like a probable winner.

I'm mildly concerned because he's been having a blast playing exhibitions with Sampras and meeting Bruce Willis and Kobe Bryant. All of which is fine as long as he focuses on the tennis. Because I guarantee that Andy is gunning for a big performance at this tournament and, if Novak makes it that far, I fear it may end up being a bit of a beating.

Nadal vs Gulbis preview coming up

Just updating the OP with a few previews, MOTD up soon courtesy of Red!

socal definitely, it's got my evening sorted out nicely. Just need the whiskey and I'm set

"unknown territory for [Murray] at Indian Wells" is incorrect BTW: Murray made the QFs here in 2010 (I think), losing to Soderling, and of course lost to Nadal in the final in a windstorm the previous year.

Am I right in thinking Querrey shrugged off a first set bagel to beat Novak in Paris? I can't see Querrey doing much this time and Novak will wrap it up with a break in the first and 2 in the second.

JWT v Raonic will be an interesting match; Tsonga's flair v Raonic's one dimensional game. Allez Jo!

And I can see Anderson beating Simon, as i may have already said.

Mad for Chelsea wrote:"unknown territory for [Murray] at Indian Wells" is incorrect BTW: Murray made the QFs here in 2010 (I think), losing to Soderling, and of course lost to Nadal in the final in a windstorm the previous year.

Poor miss by me, thanks for the correction MfC. Need to have someone keeping me honest

HM Murdoch wrote:I agree about Novak. He seems to be lacking a bit of focus and isn't currently looking like a probable winner.

I'm mildly concerned because he's been having a blast playing exhibitions with Sampras and meeting Bruce Willis and Kobe Bryant. All of which is fine as long as he focuses on the tennis. Because I guarantee that Andy is gunning for a big performance at this tournament and, if Novak makes it that far, I fear it may end up being a bit of a beating.

Personally I think Novak subconsciously wants to lose before he plays a big 4 opponent. He already has a 20 match win streak, I don't think he wants any added pressure and distractions of streaks going into the clay court season. I think he wants the focus to be squarely on the RG title, these streaks can take on a life of there own where you feel compelled to kill yourself in every match and added media pressure. I am not saying he wants to tank a match or two before the clay court season, but I don't think he wants any distractions for the dirt and wants to be well rested. I think the last thing he needs to win RG is to reach the final of these next two events. Novak is ripe for the taking.

Silver wrote:Just updating the OP with a few previews, MOTD up soon courtesy of Red!

socal definitely, it's got my evening sorted out nicely. Just need the whiskey and I'm set

Unfortunately, I will be going to a thread blackout as I have a whole DVR filled with tennis and I don't want you guys ruining it for me.

Alas it is too early to drink whiskey over here!

It's never too early for ...

socal1976 wrote: Novak is ripe for the taking.

No way in a million years, Djokovic in my eyes is basically guaranteed to win this title. Massive favourite here.

Red wrote:

socal1976 wrote: Novak is ripe for the taking.

No way in a million years, Djokovic in my eyes is basically guaranteed to win this title. Massive favourite here.

Have you seen his performances here?! OK, they've not stunk but they are a clear level or two below Dubai and AO. He's had big wobbles against both Fognini and Dimitrov. He's looking beatable.

HM Murdoch wrote:

Red wrote:

socal1976 wrote: Novak is ripe for the taking.

No way in a million years, Djokovic in my eyes is basically guaranteed to win this title. Massive favourite here.

Have you seen his performances here?! OK, they've not stunk but they are a clear level or two below Dubai and AO. He's had big wobbles against both Fognini and Dimitrov. He's looking beatable.

In Madrid 2011 he lost a set to Belluci before beating Nadal in the final.

MOTD preview up, nice one Red

Simon and Anderson playing out a bit of a weird match right now, quite unpredictable.

Great point at 30-30. Anderson wins it. 40-30 match point... Takes it!

What a streak he's on!

That was such a well-worked point from Anderson, Cogen. Great stuff! Considering his surgery layoff he's done brilliantly this week, when that serve lands in he's a tough proposition for anyone. Into the QF!

Quite a tumble from Tsonga. A break down, maybe struggling a bit?

Anderson was up 3 places for the week. That win has bumped him up another 3. Up to #31 from #37. Tied on points with Youzhny, but Youzhny keeps the #30 spot for now by virtue of having more points in the big tournaments.

Points Spy updated

Seems to be carrieg, just fended off two break points too. Needs a quick hold here and then do his best to pressure the cannonballs coming down from the other end. Of course I say that, and it's set point...

Raonic sure is going for his returns

I'm surprised Simon's still rocking the beard, just can't get used to seeing him like that!

carrieg4 wrote:Quite a tumble from Tsonga. A break down, maybe struggling a bit?

Yeah, not looking great for Tsonga right now, but he still has time to turn it around.

Fingers crossed ... I went back and forth between Jo and Milos on the ATP Fantasy for quite a while, but picked Tsonga in the end.

Holy hell, that serve is just a monster. An absolute monster. I can't help but be amazed by it every time I watch Raonic play.

Good net coverage to bring up two set points...and he misses two gimmes, but takes the next. Great hustle from Tsonga at the back to hang in there, but no dice.

Tsonga's called for the trainer, looks related to the fall as he's getting his left knee looked at.