Indian Wells Day 9 (MOTD: Murray vs Del Potro)

First topic message reminder :

It's time for the first MS1000 of the year! Red and I will be updating the opening post each day with previews of matches that catch the eye, as well as completed results and draws once the tournament moves along a little. If anyone wants to contribute, please do shoot one of us a PM!

96 players are in action with 32 seeds getting a bye into the second round, meaning that as Cogen highlighted, this is the first event since Wimbledon 2011 (at least) where all of the top players in the world are in action. A few of the narratives are the possibility that Federer could be overhauled by Murray at #2, Djokovic looking to continue his unbeaten start to the season, Nadal's triumphant return to hard courts, and numerous other players in reasonable nick - can they challenge for the title, or at least create a few upsets?

Prize: A cool $1 million ($5.4 million purse), and the invaluable 1000 ranking points.
Defending champion is Roger Federer, who defeated John Isner in the 2012 final.
Updated draw on the ATP site.

Preview from Red:


Andy Murray is on the hunt for his maiden Indian Wells title. He has reached the quarter final here, for the first time since he reached the final in 2009, but has a tough task to complete if he is to get his hands on the trophy. He is up against Argentine Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarters today, and if he gets through that he can potentially face Djokovic and Nadal in the next two rounds. In his Round 4 match Murray was not at his best, and looked irritated at the end of his tight 2 set win against Berlocq. Berlocq complained that Murray was taking too long between points, Murray complained that Berlocq was grunting too loudly, and well... I think Berlocq is not on Andy's Christmas card list anymore. With the world number 2 ranking potentially on the line if he reaches the final, Murray fans will be hoping a dismissal of Del Potro will help lighten his mood.

Juan Martin Del Potro has never won a Masters 100 title before. Will this be the week he breaks his duck? He has been on good form so far this tournament, an improvement to his relatively mediocre start to 2013. However he has not yet been tested, and with all respects to Bjorn Phau, a fixture against Andy Murray will be a real step up. In Dubai Del Potro tested Djokovic in both sets, but mentally let himself down in the key moments. Will the same happen here against the Scot? The Argentinian's record against Murray isn't great, and he will have to raise his game if he wants to have a chance of winning.

Key Tactics: Murray has a convincing 5-1 lead over Del Potro in the H2H, with Juan's only win coming on clay in 2009. Murray won the last two matches these two played (also both in 2009), and he will fancy himself to continue this run of wins and extend it today. For Del Potro to win, he must be extremely aggressive, in longer rallies Murray will coast. The higher bounce of the surface should suit Del Potro, as Murray's tactic of the low slice which has worked so well against him will be negated. Thus the onus is on Del Potro to force the play, and big serving and aggressive hitting will be his only chance of winning.

Predictions: I think Murray has too much variety and nous for Del Potro, I see the 2012 USO champion winning in straight sets: 6-3 6-4.

Fed will be back- he's taken a break (I'm being genuine here), and hopefully his back will get better and he can compete in the clay season.

Very poor from Roger, for whatever reason his worst match of the year.

Rafa pretty average for me by his standards, needs to improve against Berdych.

Certainly one of the lowest quality Fedal matches I've ever seen, struggling to think of a worse one. Certainly struggling to think of one where the winner played that average.

To Rafa's credit, I did see him try to get close to the baseline at times. Still don't see what the big deal is or what's commendable about his return though.

If Murray reaches the Final, he's the New No.2. Looks only a matter of time however.

If Federer is injured, I would go straight into the locker room and say it. And then say it in the press conference. Rather than say it 3 months later or in the autobiography.

That last backhand into the net from Federer on match point was a shocker, only half way up the net. I think the only people that really enjoyed this match would be Rafa fans, Murray and Djokovic.

Henman Bill wrote:Not so sure myself about this supposed injury. If it's his back, why is his serve still OK and the rest of his game so poor today? He does seem a bit slow at chasing down balls, very poor defence, looked like 5 or 6 he should have got to just couldn't or almost let by. Anyway, I think he will be asked in the press conference and I think if he was hampered he may say so.

yeah, I wondered why his serve was not too bad (altho not very effective). I guess it's a slightly different injury not allowing him to stretch sideways or something ... who knows tho?! I think it was the serve the caused the twinge against Dodig, so it does seem strange that it's not the serve that's badly affected. Maybe he just served through the pain knowing that without a first serve he'd always be doomed against Nadal??

I don't know if this match was significant enough to make the autobiography. Fed in general isn't one for excuses for losses.

Theres no winning Henman Bill, he says it straight away he's making excuses, leaves it later its disrespectful, he doesn't say anything (which he rarely does compared to others) he has to sit through people telling him he's finished

True CAS.

The only good thing here is that we get back to sleep by 4am and still get a night's sleep more or less. Night all.

ryan86 wrote:If Murray reaches the Final, he's the New No.2. Looks only a matter of time however.

Probably, but he is actually defending a final at Miami last year, so if he can't get to the Indian Wells final he'll have to win Miami to take Federer down a peg in the rankings. He'll get there soon though, you're right.

Hey life is hell for Federer. Really fell for the guy lol ,

Hey life is hell for Federer. Really fell for the guy lol ,

Federer being 3 and Murray being 2 is better for the pair of them coming into the French and Wimbledon

Henman Bill wrote:That last backhand into the net from Federer on match point was a shocker, only half way up the net. I think the only people that really enjoyed this match would be Rafa fans, Murray and Djokovic.

I reckon I'd have got a few points from him today ...

Although my name is Fognini.

I've been watching this forum with interest and have decided to reveal myself today. I would ask members of this forum to vote for what I should do in my next dastardly act to rival my mischief of RG 2011 ...

if Rafa gets his way through Berdy, I can't see him taking down Murray or Djokovic. Or DelPo for that matter

Well...I'm as disappointed as anyone, but at the end of the day it's just one match. There will be others, I'm sure. Certainly not their best!

Congrats to Rafa, good to see him in decent shape and I look forward to rooting for him in the next round. Night guys.

Well at the end of the day can't say I am surprised Nadal is just a bad matchup for federer, he is a bad matchup for pretty much 99 percent of the tour but federer in particular. Certainly fed has lost a bit of ability, but I think people are too down on him. He still in my mind on a fast surface with a good serving day can beat anyone. Of course, Nadal is back like I thought he would be as tenacious as ever. I can't see him losing on this slow outdoor court to Berdych. But still a terrible and meek performance for federer, everyone deserves their bad days and Roger has them as well. Can't say I expected such a poor match as this with Roger winning as many games of Nadal as Querrey won off of Djokovic. But hey tennis is like that it is a streak game and Roger is not the same Roger but still has good days in front of him. If I was Roger I would be a bit tired of the same stupid questions about his age and retirement as well. Is there anyone in the media with a brain, do they just pass around the same 10 questions to everyone and reuse them in the press conferences? No Poopie the guy is 31 years old and probably will retire soon, lets ask 1000 times till he finally says today is the day.

Silver wrote:Well...I'm as disappointed as anyone, but at the end of the day it's just one match. There will be others.

Hmmm, I think that depends heavily on him being healthy. For all the reasons for Federer sticking around until 2016, being physically able to play is #1. This tournament as seen him have this back flare up again, it seems to be something that's not getting any better.

A bad backs just a killer; worst injury conceivable really, you feel it down to your legs and there's nothing anyone can do to help. He needs rest (they said he skipped training before the Wawrinka match but of course this came along the day after that, so two days on the run). At least last Wimbledon he got breaks between matches, maybe that helped him through there.

This is what happened to Lendl.

I have noticed a mental change in Roger over the past few months. He does get a little more fired up on court now and not quite the serene Roger we have come to know... little things seem to irritate him. This could be due to the "niggles"that he is getting in his back but I believe it is all a sign of the "getting older" syndrome. The body wont obey what the brain is telling it to do. He knows he is capable and has shown that he can perform so much better "so why cant I" ??? Mind over matter. He has one or two issues that need sorting I think.. physically and mentally.

bogbrush wrote:This is what happened to Lendl.

Probably cost Sampras 1-2 slams as well with his herniated back. All the great servers and SHBHers get bad backs eventually it seems...you can add Henman and Edberg to that list as well.

Once Fed lost that 1st set he knew the game was up. Wasn't a great match, Nadal was hitting cleanly but you can't deduce much else. Nadal is always a bad match up for Federer anyway, and these high bouncing courts with 5000rpm are going to be a nightmare for a SHBH player hence Fed trying for dear life to keep it off Rafa's FH. Good for Nadal to win but I didn't enjoy the spectacle...to be fair it would have been a huge ask for Fed anyway but his movement was restricted outwide to the FH. So he gets 2 months to repair it now...I wonder how strong his appetite for the game will stay over summer.

I'm surprised so many people in the UK stayed up/got up to watch this match. I think with Fed's back bothering him so much this week there was never much chance of particularly competitive match.
Maybe I've lost interest a bit in tennis, but then again I don't think any QF match has ever been worth getting up in the middle of the night for.
Although looking back at the thread, it would have been amusing to read Red's running commentary of Federer's imminent victory. I think he's still convinced Federer will somehow come back on court and win

Given that one main thing Fed wanted this year was more practice and given that his back is troubling him more frequently and more intensely (which will prevent that), I can't see anything other than a downhill slope. His only hope is that one of the periods without back problems comes in a GS and the build up to it..

The match was reasonably poor, by their astronomical standards. But I think there were various reasons as to why Federer played despite the bad back.
The first being that, although it was bad, it wasnt life-threatening. A great competitor like Roger would need to be in mortal danger not to play a match vs his mortal rival, its how great athletes are wired. Thats what sets them apart from me & you.

Secondly, RF is taking a seven week break after this, so he probably figured he will rest well after this tourney, thus he could afford to compete.

But I think the biggest reason he played on is because, at 31, he knows the days of facing Nadal are numbered. This is tennis' equivalent of Frazier-Ali. The one match which both men are up for more than any other. At the tail-end of the rivalry, every match is almost a final and backing out simply isnt an option.

You could be right KR. I think he'd rather go out there with an injury and lose than not play at all. Withdrawing would have been the easy and understandable option (especially if what many people say is true - that he's terrified of meeting Rafa) but it's just not Fed's way.
Shows that the H2H isn't that important in his mind - again disproving those that say it really gets to him.

I still think Roger can turn this around. LAl.

I think with Stosur and Azarenka pulling out didn't help matters, there was no womens QFs and then Federer pulls out of the match that everyone wants to see that would be terrible for the tournament. Patrick McEnroe tweeted during the match, 'people need to realise Fed is only out there for the fans tonight'

I dont think Fed has ever felt inferior to Nadal, with regards to H2H. I also dont think he goes into the matches thinking he is 10-19, 4-11 since 2007 WTF and he has to rectify that. Nadal has winning records vs the entire top 10, so Fed isnt some outlier. Rather I think he looks forward to the match because Fedal is still the biggest match in the sport, maybe the history of the sport. Never before have two male players with 28 Slams between them play each other. Fedal is All-Star weekend, El Clasico, The Ashes, 100m final. In other words, it defines the best of tennis. Missing that, especially with time running out for more sequels, is not an option for either man. Establishing some sort of HTH dominance is probably at the bottom of the motive list.

I really dont think the retirement of WTA players made a difference to Roger.
He beat Stan the day earlier, remember.

JuliusHMarx wrote:I'm surprised so many people in the UK stayed up/got up to watch this match.

Have you not heard of Sky Plus? I watched it over coffee and croissants this morning...skimming over ad breaks, etc.

lydian wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:I'm surprised so many people in the UK stayed up/got up to watch this match.

Have you not heard of Sky Plus? I watched it over coffee and croissants this morning...skimming over ad breaks, etc.

There seems to have been forum activity during the match, that's all. I very rarely watch a match after-the-fact myself, not since Henman retired.

I wouldn't overstate the back too much, it was clearly a factor - clearly - but I don't think he was in danger of not even showing up when he's serving his usual mid 120s all match. It was just a bad night for probably a number of reasons, and if you're not 100% the last guy you want to face is your nemesis who you know gives nothing away. Roger...enjoy the 2 month break, but make sure you come back!

I think even the most cynical fans like the prospect of a Fedal match (hate the term). I don't record matches much except for here or Australian Open.
My son also loves tennis but his 8pm'ers to bed mean I use SkyPlus a whole lot for him too!

I too utilised the power of Sky + for this match, though unlike lydian I am not being treated to Coffee and Crossaints but the delights of drafting a procurement stategy and having to wait until later.

Federer Nadal is the only QF match I would stay up for, don't know how many more they'll be. Although an earlier start would have tested my resolve

Procurement strategy - my, my, that sounds drier than an Indian premier's footwear. The coffee/croissants isn't as "champs d'elysee" (as Boyce'y would say) as it sounds - usually the kids have nicked all the milk in the mornings so I'm left eating things even drier than your procurement strategy

It is rather cool that he never retires and hardly ever scratches, and profusely apologises for taking treatment during a match.
It's just a good thing, the type of stuff that fellow players may well reflect on when it comes to voting for the best sport? Even bigger than an appeal an outrageous 1.9 seconds after the decision?

legendkillarV2 wrote:I too utilised the power of Sky + for this match, though unlike lydian I am not being treated to Coffee and Crossaints but the delights of drafting a procurement stategy and having to wait until later.

I used to like you, but if you are in any way involved in drafting a procurement strategy you're off my list.

bogbrush wrote:It is rather cool that he never retires and hardly ever scratches, and profusely apologises for taking treatment during a match.
It's just a good thing, the type of stuff that fellow players may well reflect on when it comes to voting for the best sport? Even bigger than an appeal an outrageous 1.9 seconds after the decision?

His retirement record is excellent, have to respect that.

I can't understand why people get so excited at the prospect of a Federer/Nadal match up as they are almost always one sided affairs bar a few meetings in the slams. Usually one player runs away with it and before you know it, match over.

Wawrinka stretching Fed to a decider was evidence for me Fed's form was not good enough vs Nadal whatever form Nadal as in. As said above its a bad match up for Fed. The contrasting seasons of last year and this year Fed's had are quite unbelievable and never to be repeated in his career. I think he has come to the point now where he needs to decide if he can compete at a relatively high level. There is no point turning up for tournaments only to beat those outside the top 10 and fall at the first hurdle.

Fed seems really irritated this season. The way things are going he might finish the year ranked 4 or 5.

bogbrush wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:I too utilised the power of Sky + for this match, though unlike lydian I am not being treated to Coffee and Crossaints but the delights of drafting a procurement stategy and having to wait until later.

I used to like you, but if you are in any way involved in drafting a procurement strategy you're off my list.

Being public sector not only is the commercial element is a drag but the bureaucracy is a mind killer!

Procurement is you friend BB

Buyers are my enemy. Even the Buying Manager who works for me makes me feel like I'm making a deal with the Devil.

As buyers we are total gits! Similar to Sales Reps, one minute we are loved and the next we are hated.

I should've been a Vet.

FedsFan-
I think the charm in Nadal Federer matches is that, from a pure Grand Slam perspective. It is is the greatest possible match in history. Borg-McEnroe had 18 slams between them, Sampras-Agassi had 21 (Agassi's last slam came after Pete retired, so in terms of the rivalry it has no bearing) ). These guys have 28! Theres also the small matter of the back-to-back Wimbledon classics in 2007 & 2008. Both matches are probably in the top 10 greatest matches ever list. Another attraction is how opposite these guys are. Federer being the artist, with the liquid vapor forehand, smooth serve and cardigans. Nadal the bull, with the sledge hammer forehand, intensity and capris/ ridiculous colour ensembles. There was also the eternal question of wether Federer could ever figure Nadal out (I guess the answer is no)

All those combined factors created, quite frankly the greatest showpiece in the sports history. When it was good, of course.

Now looking at todays matches, I think Tsonga is the one guy with the chance of creating an upset. He is 3-5 vs Djokovic, although he has lost the last 4. I think if he gets it right today, Djoko is in trouble.

Procurement people are the bane of my life - usually
Usually populated by ex-accountants or bankers who know the cost of everything and value of nothing. Not everything can be boiled down to metricised ROI.

So...who's fave for the IW title then?

Uhm... The winner of the Djoko/Murray/JMDP/Tsonga quarter.

JMDP looked good vs Haas... not bad for a dark horse bet I'd say.

You will be glad to know lydian I am not from the cloth of bankers or accountants though through careful wording you could re-vamp their names

In typical procurement fashion I finished a 24 page strategy! Urgh!

I forgot the name but a former pro tipped Murray to win IW. Oddly enough this former pro also tipped Becker to win Wimbledon in 1985.

Can't for the life remember the guy's name

Nice to know LK...24 pages of pure silk hey?

Pasarell? I'm going for JMDP or Murray...if nothing else than it would be nice to see someone else other than Fed, Djoko or Nadal win during the N.American and surely Delpo has to come good again at some point?

I would love to think Del Potro could return to the force he was, though I think when we hope for someone to turn the corner it is more luck than talent that will get them there.

I thought Petchey touched on it brilliantly during the Anderson/Berdych match when Anderson hit a wide serve and Berdy return a flat return which Anderson dispatched wide on the FH side and Berdy couldn't reach it. He said if that was Nadal he would've hit a higher return to gain court position. It was spot on. Del Potro and Berdych for example hit flat, flat and flat and can never recover court position unless served power puff serves.

I think it is a toss up between Murray or Nadal.

lydian wrote:So...who's fave for the IW title then?

The Djokovic who won the first sets against Fognini and Querrey 6-0 is the clear favourite.

The Djokovic who then went right off the boil in the second sets is very beatable.

I have absolutely no idea which one is likely to turn up.

Andy is slipping ominously under the radar and Berdych is looking dangerous this year. My hunch is that one of these two will lift the trophy.