Indian Wells Day 9 (MOTD: Murray vs Del Potro)

First topic message reminder :

It's time for the first MS1000 of the year! Red and I will be updating the opening post each day with previews of matches that catch the eye, as well as completed results and draws once the tournament moves along a little. If anyone wants to contribute, please do shoot one of us a PM!

96 players are in action with 32 seeds getting a bye into the second round, meaning that as Cogen highlighted, this is the first event since Wimbledon 2011 (at least) where all of the top players in the world are in action. A few of the narratives are the possibility that Federer could be overhauled by Murray at #2, Djokovic looking to continue his unbeaten start to the season, Nadal's triumphant return to hard courts, and numerous other players in reasonable nick - can they challenge for the title, or at least create a few upsets?

Prize: A cool $1 million ($5.4 million purse), and the invaluable 1000 ranking points.
Defending champion is Roger Federer, who defeated John Isner in the 2012 final.
Updated draw on the ATP site.

Preview from Red:


Andy Murray is on the hunt for his maiden Indian Wells title. He has reached the quarter final here, for the first time since he reached the final in 2009, but has a tough task to complete if he is to get his hands on the trophy. He is up against Argentine Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarters today, and if he gets through that he can potentially face Djokovic and Nadal in the next two rounds. In his Round 4 match Murray was not at his best, and looked irritated at the end of his tight 2 set win against Berlocq. Berlocq complained that Murray was taking too long between points, Murray complained that Berlocq was grunting too loudly, and well... I think Berlocq is not on Andy's Christmas card list anymore. With the world number 2 ranking potentially on the line if he reaches the final, Murray fans will be hoping a dismissal of Del Potro will help lighten his mood.

Juan Martin Del Potro has never won a Masters 100 title before. Will this be the week he breaks his duck? He has been on good form so far this tournament, an improvement to his relatively mediocre start to 2013. However he has not yet been tested, and with all respects to Bjorn Phau, a fixture against Andy Murray will be a real step up. In Dubai Del Potro tested Djokovic in both sets, but mentally let himself down in the key moments. Will the same happen here against the Scot? The Argentinian's record against Murray isn't great, and he will have to raise his game if he wants to have a chance of winning.

Key Tactics: Murray has a convincing 5-1 lead over Del Potro in the H2H, with Juan's only win coming on clay in 2009. Murray won the last two matches these two played (also both in 2009), and he will fancy himself to continue this run of wins and extend it today. For Del Potro to win, he must be extremely aggressive, in longer rallies Murray will coast. The higher bounce of the surface should suit Del Potro, as Murray's tactic of the low slice which has worked so well against him will be negated. Thus the onus is on Del Potro to force the play, and big serving and aggressive hitting will be his only chance of winning.

Predictions: I think Murray has too much variety and nous for Del Potro, I see the 2012 USO champion winning in straight sets: 6-3 6-4.

Great point LK - in coaching they call those shots neutralisers. People always accuse Nadal of moonballing but in reality its tactical neutralising and on returns its often a really important tactic to give time to get back into court. Juniors now spend ages learning neurtralisers.

Lets see re: JMDP, he's had a lot of bad luck with injuries and know his left wrist has been flaring again so perhaps any return to form may not last long. A left wrist issue for a right-hander points to some technical issues on the DHBHer...

the only Djokovic match I saw was the Dimitrov match, where he looked as Murdoch says very beatable. I had Djokovic beating Berdych (who I think is playing really well this year) in the final, but I'm not so sure anymore: Rafa looks in very good form, Murray has progressed fairly serenely without ever looking that great, not sure where Tsonga's at but he managed to beat Raonic so can't be doing too badly, and Del Potro has had a decent year so far too, so it's all nicely set.

LK, that's a great point about Berdych and the return of serve. Berdych is actually a very good returner, but not always a smart one. You often see Djokovic return deep up the middle, which while it isn't a winning play is a very smart one and puts him on the front foot (or at least on a level pegging) for the rally. Same with Nadal. Murray is maybe a bit more aggressive off the second serve returns, but again is perfectly happy to just work his way into the rally if it's not quite there to attack.

HM Murdoch wrote:

lydian wrote:So...who's fave for the IW title then?

The Djokovic who won the first sets against Fognini and Querrey 6-0 is the clear favourite.

The Djokovic who then went right off the boil in the second sets is very beatable.

I have absolutely no idea which one is likely to turn up.

Andy is slipping ominously under the radar and Berdych is looking dangerous this year. My hunch is that one of these two will lift the trophy.

Yeah HMM, Djoko's form is a little strange this event - making him an unpredictable choice. Agree Murray is under the radar...I think Nadal will despatch Berdy given he's a different player to anyone else Berdy has faced so far, and he's of a different iron will to a guy like Anderson. Come those crunch moments I expect Berdy to show his customary head-sand-dunk...plus I know Fed wasn't great but Nadal was hitting some very good DHBHs.

I see a Murray-Nadal final with Murray sneaking through...but who knows in tennis these days! At least, from my perspective, it wont be a Djoko-Murray final. However, if Murray gets to final he's #2...then we can ONLY see Djoko-Murray in finals.

Thing is lydian if Murray, Djokovic and Nadal were just flat hitters all the time on the return of serve, they would not have the pace to make anywhere near the amount of shots they do. Hence why topspin is so vital. If anyone saw the Almagro and Haas match and Maggy for a SHBH just by moonballing pushed Haas further and further off the court on the cross court rallies. Fed has implored that tactic brilliantly on Clay.

With Nadal and Djokovic especially you get those barsteward shots that kick off the baseline and give the server absolutely nothing to dictate the point with.

Berdy can't hit topspin for taffy. Anderson played a poor length and pumped too many balls down the middle of the court for Berdych to past for winners. Berdych struggles with wide serves because a flat shot into the middle of the court leads to a put away winner for the top guys on tour.

If Del Potro can't beat Andy now then I predict he probably never will

A turgid surface, which appears slower than the clay of Madrid

And undercooked Murray (no problem for me - I want him fresh as a daisy for Wimbledon to the US Open)

Great opportunity for the Argentinean and I think he'll take it

If Del Potro can't beat Andy now then I predict he probably never will

Sometimes Delpo has streaks of days where he's practically unbeatable, then there are days where he plays matches like he did with Ferrer at Wimby... hard to say how he will play!

Read a journo's report today and it looks like Federer did admit to/blame his bad back. Although it's annoying having to read a journo's report slightly midquoting bits of the interview without showing the question asked and context, and you have to wait until the next day to see the transcript.

Which match should I preview today guys?

Red

Tough one. Murray v Delpo haven't played in years and with the high bouncing surface I think there is a good chance of an upset. Not that Delpo beating atop 4 player is that much of an upset, but you get what I mean.

Novak v Tsonga is perhaps a slightly more appealing prospect as its the no.1 vs arguably the most explosive player on tour. I think it's easier to predict, but also could be easier on the eye.

I'm pretty sure that's no help at all. But either would be a good read.

Two great matches today, I actually have picked murray from the start and go with him all the way through. Djokovic I think wants out of here subconsciously as fast as possible. I don't think we will see a fully engaged Novak in the fight till the gear up for RG, he has already pulled the IW/Miami double, won both events multiple times and I don't think he wants to wrestle with a streak distraction during the clay court season where he is almost compelled to kill himself to win every warm up match. Unfortunately, Tsonga hasn't looked great either and the slow conditions do not favor him at all. If Djoko doesn't lose against Tsonga he will lose against Murray as long as murray starts strong. If he loses set one he will subconsciously check out even more. Not saying he will tank it, but he will pace himself and keep his eyes on the big prize.

I'm just watching Federer v Nadal on sky+ now and I'm only 7 games in, but what is obvious to see is that Roger was really struggling with his movement.

He was not stretching for anything really and looks more rigid than I think I've ever seen him before. Rafa looks in good shape, but I'm not sure how much significance can be attached to the match.

Roger looked in no shape to take on Rafa.

lydian wrote:Great point LK - in coaching they call those shots neutralisers. People always accuse Nadal of moonballing but in reality its tactical neutralising and on returns its often a really important tactic to give time to get back into court. Juniors now spend ages learning neurtralisers.

I was hugely impressed with how he dealt with Fed's wide kickers into the ad court throughout the match. Nadal was absolutely miles off court and dealing with a ball that was basically head height, but frequently managed to loop it back to within a few feet of the baseline time and again, leaving Fed pinned and unable to play an attacking shot. It looked like a 'moonball', but it was an extremely effective strategy and the potential angles granted by Nadal's wide position + the sheer height of the return made Federer reluctant to come in behind the wide serve. Very difficult to execute repeatedly.

Red, I'd go with JMDP vs Murray.

I agree Danny but for one thing.. that Rafa in his present form would have been odds on favourite for me to win any way. However
having said that Roger did look very limited in his movement..more than that his general demeanor looked very negative. almost to the point he wished he was anywhere but on court.

I go with Delpo against Murray

You could be right Haddie. I don't think Murray can afford the slow start he has had in the other rounds. Looking forward to the match

I get the feeling this surface is not best suited to Murray. It wouldn't surprise me if Del Potro won but Andy does have a good record against him so we shall just have to wait and see.

It's unlikely that I'll be able to watch the match tonight but I'm looking forward to it.

The way I see it is that Murray's rightly the favourite. The H2H is currently 5-1 in his favour and he normally plays well against the big players. If he doesn't play well though then DelPo will smash him but if he does play well then 5/6 he'll win the match. If DelPo wins it'll be no surprise but I'm expecting Murray to put in a great performance and win the match. They're two of my favourites though so it'll be sad whoever loses.

OK, I'll do Del POtro Murray

Time does the Murray match start fellas?

Not before 3.30pm local time so 11.30pm onwards here?

In less than 1 hour I think.

Djokovic's walkover v Tsonga starts at half 8 so Murray's scheduled for about 1-:30.

There you go. Three completely different answers -hope that has cleared it up for you Monty

Haha! Time to add another one: if it's not before 15:30 locally then wouldn't that make it 22:30 here?

Silver wrote:Haha! Time to add another one: if it's not before 15:30 locally then wouldn't that make it 22:30 here?

Yes, sorry I assumed the time difference was 8 hours.

Haddie-nuff wrote:I agree Danny but for one thing.. that Rafa in his present form would have been odds on favourite for me to win any way. However
having said that Roger did look very limited in his movement..more than that his general demeanor looked very negative. almost to the point he wished he was anywhere but on court.

Yeah don't get me wrong, Rafa dominates the h2h for a reason... He is a nightmare matchup for Roger. In normal circumstances I would have Rafa as favourite anyway.

I feel a bit cheated though because I wanted to see Rafa tested against a great player to see where he really is. But that didn't happen because of Roger's back.

I think Berdych will be a better match. Rafa's biggest test yet for sure and a man in good form.

Haddie-nuff wrote:I agree Danny but for one thing.. that Rafa in his present form would have been odds on favourite for me to win any way. However
having said that Roger did look very limited in his movement..more than that his general demeanor looked very negative. almost to the point he wished he was anywhere but on court.

In his press conference nadal said that federer wasnt fighting as he usually does.
But i agree with you that Rafa in his present form would probably have won anyway, because even without having any back issues Fed was in bad form so far this year.
I think Nadals backhand looks as good as ever.

carrieg4 wrote:

Silver wrote:Haha! Time to add another one: if it's not before 15:30 locally then wouldn't that make it 22:30 here?

Yes, sorry I assumed the time difference was 8 hours.

No worries! Blame the recent time change in the States

I'd quite like to see a JMDP upset here, but realistically with the poor records that both Tsonga and Del Potro have against the other two, I can't see either of them making the final here.

http://www.flashscores.co.uk/tennis/

It's all there (in my above post I, of course, meant 10:30).

Whoa. Did anyone notice Janowicz & partner are into the doubles final? Not bad for a team that was literally cobbled together at the last moment. Janowicz replaced Huey's regular partner due to ranking issues, more or less on the eve of the tournament. Nice to see!

I saw that. They're both big serves, aren't they? Anyway, the face the Bryans who, if they win IW, will have won pretty much everything in the men's doubles. All majors, gold medals and all Masters.

Remember this doubles pairing?

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/tennis/2008-01-13-tall-doubles-team_N.htm

This looks fairly routine for Djokovic so far.

Tsonga mentally just isn't strong enough to take out Djokovic in my opinion.

Agreed...came close at RG though.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Tsonga mentally just isn't strong enough to take out Djokovic in my opinion.

I was not a happy Dave after that RG QF last year.

He's my 2nd fav is JWT, but...dearie me at times!

And it's a case of "dearie me" tonight...he's just not playing well at all here.

Tsonga defeating himself. Joko as usual wining on other guys UE's. Boring.

Tsonga is an explosive player in many ways. He can play explosive tennis and also can himself literally explode. Too many peaks and troughs in his matches to allow him to really stamp his authority on matches. Sure he has and will have brief fleeting moments such as v Fed at Wimbledon but more often than not these are isolated incidents where he often follows such wins up with mediocre losses.

This is really woeful stuff from Tsonga, there's no thinking going on at all...but then Tsonga never strikes me as a crafty player. His technique seems really sloppy tonight as well...almost looks like he's out of sorts somehow. Djokovic is just being solid, nothing more.

That serve looked well wide at 0-40!

Larry Ellison isn't going to be happy with the requests for crowd refunds after this match. This is dire.

I'm not sure what's more striking... Novak's assurance or Tsonga's ineptitude.

Whichever it is one thing is certain... This is way more boring than I thought it would be!

Isn't JWT carrying an injury or something? Apparently he was looking leggy (no pun intended) against Raonic.

22-0 ... Are we in for another 2011?

Novak wraps it up in 54 minutes!

Difficult to really judge Djokovic's level because Tsonga was so poor but he looked much better today.

21 winners, 6 unforced errors. Nice.

Novak's serve has really gone up a level this year. Looking much more reliable and getting plenty of free points.

Something of a massacre that. Agreed HM - tough to judge Novak's performance today.

No MOTD preview? Shocking. #RedOut #KeanIn

Rasheed really has a lot of work to do now. Agree with Petchers that they need to look at their tactics and assess how capable Tsonga is of executing a gameplan.

The Special Juan wrote:No MOTD preview? Shocking. #RedOut #KeanIn

LOl

I have done the preview, and inboxed it to Silver a few hours ago. He hasn't added it in yet

MESSAGE:
Julius has informed me as this pages has reached 18 pages it will soon reach it's page limit, it is best to start a new thread.
This is why Julius will lock this thread, and I will start a new one. Me and Silver will continue our MOTD there.

Cheers,
Amritia