Federer and the ATP Race for WTF

I ended another thread by saying I'd like to see Fed at the O2 this year (for my son...of course) before he doesn't make it there again.
2014 is likely to be much harder to qualify - however, could 2013 be tougher to qualify given his YTD has been as good as usual?

How many points does he need to WTF? Possibly around 4,000.
So far he has 1,170 pts and is 6th in the race.
He'll likely need another 2,800 pts to qualify from his remaining 2013 schedule:

6-May Madrid, Mutua Madrid Open
13-May Rome Internazionali BNL d’Italia
27-May Paris, Roland Garros
10-Jun Halle, Gerry Weber Open
24-Jun Wimbledon
5-Aug Montreal, Rogers Cup
12-Aug Cincinnati, Western & Southern Open
26-Aug New York, US Open
07-Oct Shanghai, Shanghai Rolex Masters
28-Oct Paris, BNP Masters

(maybe Basel if they agree his appearance issues)

Surely he gets 2,800 pts from above? Surely...?
However, lets say he flatlines 2013 and averages QF in all events - that gives him a total of around 3,400 pts going into WTF - probably not enough.
Making SFs on average would change that to around 5,600 pts - probably putting him midway in qualifying.

If he averages somewhere between QF and SFs then he's looking at 4,500! Which should be enough but goes to show it could be tight and he'll needs some good performances (finals) to probably offset going out early 2-3 times. However, it illustrates that a lacklustre (relatively) year could easily hurt him for WTF'13.

Anyone think that its possible he doesnt qualify or is it much ado about nothing and he cruises it?

It may be worth waiting till after the Clay season is over, then it will provide a clearer picture. He has been unable to defend three titles so far. Some good SFs @MSes should help him. Last year Tipsy qualified, so it may need a bit of work, but it is possible.

Do you know what Tipsy's cut-off total was LF?

If he gets fit again he'll qualify. He should reach the QFs of all the slams and most other tourneys even if he's not fit. Would that be enough points?

If his current travails are down to his back and he can regain adequate fitness from April through to September he should be OK. He has showed such differences in form since the beginning of 2011 that it's only getting more difficult to predict what he can do.

Looking at 2012 had Nadal not been out Tsonga would have qualified 8th on 3,490 points.
So Fed needs around 2,300 points more, looking at the schedule above lets play Gypsy Rose Lee and say he achieves a fairly lacklustre-ish:

6-May Madrid - R16 (it'll be his first event back and slower than 2012)
13-May Rome - QF
27-May Roland Garros - QF (I think he'll struggle this year, maybe even go out earlier)
10-Jun Halle - F
24-Jun Wimbledon - SF
5-Aug Montreal - QF (its slower at Montreal than Toronto)
12-Aug Cincinnati - SF
26-Aug US Open - SF
07-Oct Shanghai - QF
28-Oct Paris - R16

That would give him 3,030 pts - total of 4,200 pts - so he should be ok.
However, it wouldnt take much to slip down though, just 2 slam QFs rather than SFs and he's down to 3,500 pts...near cut off.
Could be close unless his form and back pick up - and I need to decide whether to buy WTF tickets or not in the meantime!

lydian wrote:Do you know what Tipsy's cut-off total was LF?

Tipsarevic (2,810 points) is now 385 points clear of 10th-placed Nicolas Almagro, who suffered a first-round loss earlier in the week, and 440 points clear of Gasquet. Should Tipsarevic win his third-round match Thursday to advance to his third straight quarter-final, he will move a further 90 points

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2012/10/41/Race-To-London-Tipsarevic-Boosts-Hopes.aspx

Federer nedds 2900 points in 3 slams and 6 Masters? If he cant get there I would be shocked. We are talking of the greatest HC player in history, the one of the greatest grass players ever and the second best clay courter around today.

Too well-rounded
Too talented
Too big to fail

LF - thanks!

KR - hope you're right

How I think he would go
Madrid- SF
Rome SF
Roland Garros - QF at worst, possibly final
Halle (confirmed?)- SF+
Wimbledon- SF
Montreal- SF
Cincy QF
USO- SF+
Shanghai-QF
Bercy- F

About 4200-4800. So a total of around 5500-6000.

That to me looks unlikely, he has to win a few along the way, so I think he will be closer to 7000

That comment above made me feel like a very bad stock broker

"Its a blue chip, so It should go up by 5% by May, leaving us at 1024c a share, the economy should go through a purple patch (from where), so I think it will be 1500c a share" lol

You've got him down for some extremely strong clay results there - not sure about that! Of course its all conjecture but I'd be surprised if he finished top 3 this year...more likely 4 or 5...a lot will depend on how Berdy and Ferrer do as well. Consistency is the name of the game...and in his case motivation to keep plugging away!

Buy...buy...sell...sell...greed is good, greed works...type thing hey. You sounded fine to me, thanks for the comments.

lydian wrote:and I need to decide whether to buy WTF tickets or not in the meantime!

I would surely advice you to buy it coz next year he won't make it and might call it off 2014-2015 for sure.

I guess he will take the 2013 off completely from his schedule and will try to make one last hurrah in 2014 by attempting a major comeback, however he might not succeed in it thou, if he succeeds then 2015 will be his farewell tour year if not he will give up on 2014 itself.

Fed will surely play Basel if he needs points for qualification, he for sure gonna have a very sub par year given his standards, his mind is not focused and neither his body capable of holding for a complete week let alone 2 weeks in a slam.

kingraf wrote:How I think he would go
Madrid- SF
Rome SF
Roland Garros - QF at worst, possibly final
Halle (confirmed?)- SF+
Wimbledon- SF
Montreal- SF
Cincy QF
USO- SF+
Shanghai-QF
Bercy- F

About 4200-4800. So a total of around 5500-6000.

That to me looks unlikely, he has to win a few along the way, so I think he will be closer to 7000

Good round off, but I see the following

Madrid- SF
Rome DNP
Roland Garros - Finals /4th round
Halle (confirmed?)- DNP
Wimbledon- QF
Montreal- DNP
Cincy 2nd round
USO- QF
Shanghai- DNP
Bercy- DNP


So most likely he would score on the average of 480+ 1200 +480 + 10 + 480 = 2650 , if needed he might play Basel last minute and I guess would scrap into WTF, but if one of the underdog in top 10 rise to the occasion then Fed might not make it.

The thing is I dont think there is a player not named Nadal that Federer goes into a Clay match as anything other than favourite. Of course Djokovic could beat him, and JMDP has challenged him on clay, but I cant see Federer losing to Berdy/Tsonga for example on clay, although it could happen on grass.

I think the Wimbledon 12 was an opportunity for him to retire on top so to speak. I think if he had beat Nadal, instead of Murray he would have given it some serious thought. I doubt he would have retired though, the Olympics were 3 weeks away. And I think people underestimate the allure of a Career Golden Slam.

Can he skip 5 MS, though? If he does, then clearly WTF is no longer a priority for him, thus this article is rendered obsolete.

I think he can skip 3 maximum, no?
one for being 30+
One for over 700 wins
one for 11 years of service. He would lose points on the other two

People at the bottom end of the top eight have been sneaking into WTF in recent years without large totals simply cos the big-points events have mainly gone to the top four.
Fed, ironically, has far more chance of making London again if Djoko, a rejuvenated Rafa and Murray clean up again, thereby preventing anyone further down getting much of a look in.
As he said today, Fed can always alter his schedule anyway. It's a long time til he next plays and - his back being OK - he could perhaps wild card himself in somewhere.
l

kingraf wrote:The thing is I dont think there is a player not named Nadal that Federer goes into a Clay match as anything other than favourite. Of course Djokovic could beat him, and JMDP has challenged him on clay, but I cant see Federer losing to Berdy/Tsonga for example on clay, although it could happen on grass.

I think the Wimbledon 12 was an opportunity for him to retire on top so to speak. I think if he had beat Nadal, instead of Murray he would have given it some serious thought. I doubt he would have retired though, the Olympics were 3 weeks away. And I think people underestimate the allure of a Career Golden Slam.

Yes KR, Fed will be a threat in RG for sure and if he gets a favorable draw he might even end up winning it as long as Rafa is dished to Djoko in the quarters and he loses there, but outside RG I see a blank year for him. He might skip most masters in clay and hardcourts this year citing some injury or might lose in the 2nd round to get an early escape out.

That's a very risky strategy to skip events to that degree - it might render him so rusty and out of form that 2014 becomes a fait a complis in being a bad year. I think this is his last "full-ish" year then 2014 resembles the kind of schedule you have portrayed for 2013...finishing with a swansong in Basel and WTF (if he makes it there). Either way, 2013 and 2014 both have the feel of a winding down, a victory parade for his career.

Re: WTF, I've booked the tickets...whether we would get to see him is 25% chance anyway as seeds play alternate days and you don't now whether they play day or evening either.

I can't see Fed playing too much longer if he loses each and every week. But I think he will finish #4 or at worst 5 because of an abbreviated schedule possibly, I can't see him squeaking into London. He will be fine, he isn't the same player but no one expected he would be at 31. It doesn't mean he can't have great days when his shots are firing and his body feels great. Remember how untouchable Pete was in the 02 USO.

I think Federer can be about 4th at the year end.

In my opinion he'll make it easily. Federer's way too accomplished to fall below #8, and that's factoring in the back. If that goes away/is managed effectively, there is virtually zero chance of him not making it. Fear not, lydian! You and your son will get to see him

Of course it's hard to say definitively, especially after a defeat as raw as the one last night. He could lose every week upon returning, or he could come back and wreck everyone at Madrid, Rome and RG to make us all look like idiots. I have a feeling he'll continue to be competitive this year and end up at #4 unless Berdych goes on the rampage.

kingraf wrote:Can he skip 5 MS, though? If he does, then clearly WTF is no longer a priority for him, thus this article is rendered obsolete.

I think he can skip 3 maximum, no?
one for being 30+
One for over 700 wins
one for 11 years of service. He would lose points on the other two

He may lose points, but has no Masters commitments at all.

1.08 Reduction of ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Commitment A.A player’s number of ATP World Tour Masters 1000 commitment tournaments shall
be reduced by one (1) tournament for reaching each of the following milestones:
1) 600 matches* (as of 1 January of the commitment year);
2) 12 years of service;
3) 31 years of age (as of 1 January of the commitment year).
If all three (3) conditions are met then the player has a complete exemption from the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 player commitment.
The first Year of Service shall be the first calendar year in which a player has competed in at least twelve (12) tournaments offering ATP ranking points.
* From 2010 only main draw singles matches played in the following events will be used in the player’s match count for purposes of this rule.
ATP World Tour
Barclays ATP World Tour Final Grand Slams
Davis Cup
Olympics
Challenger and Futures matches played prior to 2010 will remain on the play- er’s record as relates to this commitment reduction rule.

Source: ATP Rule book - http://www.atpworldtour.com/Corporate/Rulebook.aspx (This is valid in 2011 and 2013 books).

So he does not have to play ANY MS1000?

kingraf wrote:So he does not have to play ANY MS1000?

Correct.

You could phrase the question another way, because sometime hinting a question one way leads you towards a certain scenario. If you ask the question who will make the Top 8, trying to convince yourself that between now and Paris, people like Gasquet, Almagro, Raonic or Nishikori will outscore Federer is tougher.

I interpreted the rules wrong. But like I said if he isnt willig to play in 5 MS1000s, then he doesnt want to make WTF

I would be pretty gobsmacked if Roger Federer does not qualify for the WTF this year. True he is not the player he was consistency-wise but still feel that he has it in him to still reach the business end of the big tournaments.

Good point Ryan. I agree it's unlikely RF won't make the finals even with a reduced schedule, and he may yet fit additional tournaments in.

Thanks silver, my son is over the moon
(I'm pretty pleased too!)

kingraf wrote:I interpreted the rules wrong. But like I said if he isnt willig to play in 5 MS1000s, then he doesnt want to make WTF

I did not say he will not play MSes, but he does not have to. His current schedule ( http://www.rogerfederer.com/en/tennis/schedule/ ) has Madrid, Rome, Canada, Cincinnati and Shanghai and Paris on the calendar.

Just reviving this thread after a quick check of the Race to London table shows that Mr. Federer has now slipped from 6th (when the article was first penned by lydian) to 8th place.

Out of six titles collected during a very impressive 2012, three have been defended so far but all without success as we know. Of the three remaining, I personally don't see him taking Madrid again - which leaves Wimbledon and Cincinnati.

He will be a few weeks short of 32 when Wimbledon comes around and I doubt anyone of that vintage has won at SW19 for a long long time - if at all. Seven x Bo5 is a tough ask. He might hold on to Cincy, and of course it's perfectly feasible that he could pick up one or more other titles, even if only 500's.

Overall, there must surely be a bigger question mark now with the first quarter of the season gone - and with it a lot of dropped points - that London is in any way guaranteed. More consecutive WTF appearances I think (?) than any other active player but ..... could the run finally come to an end this year......

Any fresh thoughts folks ...??

I would still be very surprised if Roger doesn't qualify. I am no points expert so am not going to even begin to make guestimates (sorry) but instinct and gut tells me Roger will be there. If not could that be the catalyst for Roger calling time on his career?

Roger will be fine I see him finishing in the top 5, probably at #4. But players like Berdy and Tsonga are giving him more trouble and he has limited his schedule so I don't see much of a chance for a top 3 finish.

Ironically, Roger could qualify through the success of his main challengers - Rafa, Djoko, Andy M plus Ferrer - garnering up the big points which will be denied to the likes of JWT, JMDP and Berdych.
Just how many of the 2,000 and 1,000-pointers have gone to anyone outside the top 5 recently ? I remember Looby winning one but that was a little while back.
With Rafa back, it's as difficult as ever to see anyone outside the very top winning the big titles.
Another scenario is that if Fed looks like struggling to reach the WTF he could chuck in some extra tourneys. No point in skipping Paris, for instance, if he is still some points shy of qualifying for London.

I would love to see Haas qualify for WTF.

Peter Bodo thoughts on Federer moving forward in 2013

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2013/04/next-few-months-will-tell-us-lot-about-roger-federer/46973/#.UWBb2Yy9KK0

Interesting thought: Fed will be younger at Rio 2016 than Haas is now!

If we're saying that Fed won't qualify - then we're also saying that his ranking will be down at 6 or 7 (with just the O2 points not counting towards the race)

I just can't see it

Fed could 'merely' just get to every QF and that will be a lot more consistent than those below Rafa

I actually think he'll have a poor clay court season, but a good summer and maybe a US Open win

Yep, I'd go along with that except SFs at Wimb & USO. Maybe win Cincy.

Do you have to work hard to think of these 'big four' dramas?

He'll be there barring serious injury, it's not even a topic for discussion.

I recommend watching some tennis and stop thinking about the top 4 as a reality TV show.

laverfan wrote:I would love to see Haas qualify for WTF.

I second that. Hard to see that happening but not impossible. He does not have that much to defend on clay. I still did not get over his SF loss in Miami; that match was winnable and would have brought a lot of extra points.

Barring a disaster, Roger will make WTF. He may currently look like the weakest link in the top 4, but that is just about it, and even that is not a given just yet.

Agree on that Haas-Ferrer semi, the one that got away for sure.

Fed has a lot of points coming up to defend and returns straight into competition at Madrid on red clay defending 1000 pts which will be likely tougher than last year. Agree it's unlikely he misses WTF, nor do I want him to - me and my son want the chance of seeing "the legend" for ourselves before he hangs up the racquet - hence this thread as my son is a promising junior player and seeing Federer play would be a great experience for developing his game in that type of vein - and I say that as I still believe Federer's brand of tennis is the future of the game, not counterpunching.

Anyway, re: WTF a lot also depends on how well others play through the following Masters /slams too. Given he needs around 3000 pts he should be ok but the start to 2013 hasn't been as good as usual. Be interesting to return to this thread from time to time.

Sorry but, if you are already wetting yourself at the idea, and at the consequent idea of a Nadal win, I think it's a bit too early. Usually the 7th and 8thplayer qualify with little more than 3000 atp points, and can we really see Federer at 3000 this year??

What's Nadal got to do with anything, this is a Federer thread.
Go easy on the unpleasant wetting language, this is a debate about Federer getting to WTF.
He's down to enter 14 events this year, he's played 4 so far and got 1170 pts. He should make 3000. However, the Bodo article also asks the question.

I think this article may exude that type of undertone JK mentioned lydian.
Personally I don't think of it like that but I can see where others would.

I don't think Bodo mentioned the ATP final race in his article (scanned it very quckly though). I just thought that, as a Nadal die hard fan, you might enjoy it a bit, I might be wrong............

@ Luv: I know my chickens..........

lydian wrote:Agree on that Haas-Ferrer semi, the one that got away for sure.

Fed has a lot of points coming up to defend and returns straight into competition at Madrid on red clay defending 1000 pts which will be likely tougher than last year. Agree it's unlikely he misses WTF, nor do I want him to - me and my son want the chance of seeing "the legend" for ourselves before he hangs up the racquet - hence this thread as my son is a promising junior player and seeing Federer play would be a great experience for developing his game in that type of vein - and I say that as I still believe Federer's brand of tennis is the future of the game, not counterpunching.

Anyway, re: WTF a lot also depends on how well others play through the following Masters /slams too. Given he needs around 3000 pts he should be ok but the start to 2013 hasn't been as good as usual. Be interesting to return to this thread from time to time.

Come on Lydian! Fed is vulnerable to losing No.3 or even Ferrer overtaking him. Even if we think that someone like Gasquet might suddenly be consistent, I cannot see how on earth Fed could be so bad not to muster enough points

Yes, he has a lot of points to defend. But some of those, who you think might overtake him are in their mid to late 20's and have rarely got the number of points in a year that Roger has to defend in the next 7 months

Your son will get to see the legend

Bodo is a well known tennis journalist (pro Federer too) and he's questioning the challenge ahead when Federer has not been amassing the usual # pts to date. This thread also reflects that sentiment/question, i.e. it's a look at Federer's potential 2013 pts which is essentially the same as a WTF race discussion. It was actually inspired by my son saying he hoped he could see him at WTF but to be frank I wonder whether I should have bothered posting it.

JK, I'm rather tired of these negative "Nadal diehard" labels.
The Tilden thread I put up must have been because I'm a diehard Nadal fan right?
My assertion to speed up courts must be because I'm a diehard Nadal fan right?
My post above about wishing my son would rather play like Federer (hence wanting to take him to WTF to watch Roger play before he leaves tour) is because I'm a Nadal diehard right?

LS, this article does no such thing (exude what undertone? This is his worst start to a year). Please keep on reading negative bile about me elsewhere to colour your judgement. Birds of a feather flock together. I couldn't care less. I'm a fan of the game first and foremost, long before Nadal or Federer came along, and will be very sorry to see Roger leave the tour whenever he does because the way he plays the game is uniquely graceful, aggressive, effective and enjoyable to watch. Its the perfect bluprint for future players (if we can restore some variation) hence why I eulogise about Dimitrov (and Goffin, albeit he has DHBH). I guess that's also strange to admire Dimitrov's game when I'm a "Nadal diehard" right? I'm just not Fed's biggest fan, doesn't mean I don't admire and appreciate his game though.

Thanks banbrotam, I agree it's unlikely he'll miss qualification but I'm not the only one wondering what happens if this "poor" start to 2013 snowballs into QF runs elsewhere.

Yeah, you'd have to be a strange individual to see this article as anti-Federer. Particularly ironic as it was kicked off again this week by a Federer fan worrying that he might not make it. That said, barring the back issue keeping him out for a large portion of the season, he will make it easily.

I am sorry if you felt tired, still believe this article a bit preposterous though....btw: have you considered to bring your kids to Wimbledon instead?