Putting Things In Perspective (Indian Wells And Monte Carlo)

It's always sad when a winning streak comes to an end. Nadal couldn't add to his 8 consecutive titles at Monte Carlo and Djokovic wins the first battle on clay this season. This was of course an important win for Djokovic but those writing Nadal off because of this one loss are perhaps getting a little ahead of themselves and forgetting about Indian Wells.

Djokovic won Monte Carlo (His first Masters title this year) beating Monaco, Nieminem, Fognini and Nadal in the last 4 rounds

Nadal won Indian Wells beating Gulbis, Federer, Berdych and Del Potro in the last 4 rounds.

They are one a piece in terms of Masters Titles. Nadal with a hard court title and a clay court final. Djokovic with a clay court title. It could be argued that Nadals draw at IW was a bit more tricky than Djokovics draw at Monte Carlo (apart from the final. Ha ha!). They both have one 500 title too. Djokovic has Dubai on Hard and Nadal has Acapulco on clay.

So since Nadals return they both are close. Both have a mixture of Hard and Clay titles.

Yes but you forget that Djokovic is 1-0 over the new Nadal and that Djokovic won a convincing victory over Nadal on Nadal's most favored clay court. The message is clear, Djoko has beaten Nadal in a final on clay at Madrid, Rome, and now Monte Carlo and he means to take the last piece of Nadal's clay court dominance the jewel in the crown at RG. Nadal can and will beat Djoko in the future but I think the percentages in their matchup have tilted towards Djokovic over the last couple of years, that is all I have been saying. Certainly, it doesn't mean Nadal can't win RG or beat Novak in big tournaments but it is a very a strong initial message and the best possible start of the clay court season for Djokovic, and a worrying one for Nadal. Seems like all that IW mojo disappeared dear Hawkeye.

Actually winning MC 8 times in a row created a monster at back of Rafa, and in order to release the pressure of the monster Rafa decided to let one go, Rafa had to lose some day to prove he is no immortal and mortal with extra ordinary fighting skills.

I for once liked the match between these two, it was very attacking and interesting.

So, in summary:

Novak loses and Rafa wins = Rafa is the best.

Novak beats Rafa = They're about the same.

Glad that's cleared up.

socal1976 wrote:Yes but you forget that Djokovic is 1-0 over the new Nadal and that Djokovic won a convincing victory over Nadal on Nadal's most favored clay court. The message is clear, Djoko has beaten Nadal in a final on clay at Madrid, Rome, and now Monte Carlo and he means to take the last piece of Nadal's clay court dominance the jewel in the crown at RG. Nadal can and will beat Djoko in the future but I think the percentages in their matchup have tilted towards Djokovic over the last couple of years, that is all I have been saying. Certainly, it doesn't mean Nadal can't win RG or beat Novak in big tournaments but it is a very a strong initial message and the best possible start of the clay court season for Djokovic, and a worrying one for Nadal. Seems like all that IW mojo disappeared dear Hawkeye.

socal1976. Too many things were tilted towards Novak in that Monte Carlo final. I see it as Novak righting the ship rather than Rafa going too far behind. I see that many are building up the loss as greater for Rafa because of the number of titles he's won. If he'd only won MC 3 or 4 times it perhaps wouldn't be seen as so much of a loss. Rafa and Roger do create these "monsters"...

And of course this loss doesn't mean Nadal can't win RG! Nadal beat Djokovic in Monte Carlo, Rome and RG last time they played. He is just returning from 8 months out of competition. What was it Agassi said something like it might take that length of time again until he's fully fit. Of course he's been a bit quicker than that but the time off must still affect his play a little. For example isn't lack of match fitness thought to have caused his back problems. Also Nadal might not even face Djokovic at RG as Djokovic has only made the final once. He is vulnerable to other players.

HM Murdoch wrote:So, in summary:

Novak loses and Rafa wins = Rafa is the best.

Novak beats Rafa = They're about the same.

Glad that's cleared up.

Wish I had a red pen!

Novak loses and Rafa wins = Rafa gets the title

Novak beats Rafa = Novak gets the title

It's what happens after the ='s sign that's important. Now write this out 100 times...

Come on Hawkeye you were just talking up how Nadal had all the momentum and had just won the 5th slam at indian wells now all of a sudden in his 5th tournament this season he is lacking match fitness? There were a lot of factors tilting in favor of Novak in this final, his superior returning ability, his superior backhand, his lethal forehand and his ability to out Nadal, Nadal in the long points. I agree all those factors tilted in Novak's favor.

I do agree with you Nadal was the hottest player on tour for the last month and half, now all of sudden he goes back to just barely recovering from injury? Is it possible after celebrating Nadal's victory in the 5th slam, his 5 straight finals, etc, that now he is just another great rehabbing from his injury? I don't think he was that far off of his best, as evidenced by being the hottest player on tour for the last month and a half. Now he loses to Djokovic and all the factors were tilting towards Novak? I don't buy it.

By the way I don't disagree with your contention that, Nadal can still retain his title at RG, Novak could lose to someone else etc. All I have been saying is that it seems Novak seems to be ascendant over the last couple of years in their rivalry and that this match on Nadal's favorite clay court is a big message. It doesn't determine the outcome of future matches though.

And I don't buy all this talk about a guy who has been to 5 straight tour finals to be lacking in match fitness and sharpness and needing more time for rehab. Can nadal play better absolutely, but if Djoko plays his A game it still probably won't be enough.

Djokovic neutralises Nadal, its quite incredible to see. Just like Nadal has no problem with Federer's slice and just eats it up, Novak has no issues with Nadals spin.The forehand to backhand is telling, the amount of times I've seen Nadal end the rally by running around his backhand and hitting it down the line against Federer, but Novak can somehow gain the advantage when that happens

I agree CAS it is interesting but matchup wise Novak is a nightmare for Nadal, at least Novak 2.0 who is fit as a fiddle and has a reliable serve is a nightmare matchup for Nadal. The problem for Nadal comes from a few factors against Djokovic it isn't just one thing

1. Novak likes the ball high and heavy on both sides Nadal hits the ball with more height than anyone, absolutely delightful for Novak's western forehand.

2. Novak changes direction so easily on both sides, Nadal just can't pin him into the backhand corner because Djokovic will take it up the line. Novak's superior ability to go up the line on either wing always allows Novak to take the initiative in the baseline rallies and make Nadal do the chasing.

3. Nadal's favorite second serve of the big kicker to the backhand is probably the serve that Novak handles the best, Djokovic just has no problem returning Nadal.

4. Nadal can't rely on his movement, consistency, and fitness to grind Novak to pulp. When push comes to shove Novak won a majority of the lengthy rallies, he is just as fit, just as fast, and just as consistent off both wings.

All this being said Nadal is still a great player and a very dangerous opponent, none of this precludes Nadal winning more slams or matches against Djoko, the percentages however in their matchup seem to be tilted more to Djokovic. If both player their A game Novak wins. If Novak plays his B game and Nadal plays his B game Novak probably wins. If Novak plays his B game and Nadal plays his A game then Nadal wins. This is not a comfortable position for an 11 time grandslam champion in his mid-twenties to be in.

I think it is great for the game that someone is a bad match up for Nadal.

So much of his success, aside from simply being brilliant, is down to the fact that he is a nightmare match up for most players: left handed, huge power, crazy spin and incredibly fit.

In the bigger picture, it's also good for Rafa as it adds value to his success. Without a rival who can damage him, it could have become a procession and got boring.

Rafa is now one half of two great rivalries. That is great for his legacy.

Saw the match yesterday and it was one of Novak's most impressive displays if not his best on Clay. He got the mix up of play absolutely bang on. It was always going to be interesting given Nadal hadn't played Murray or Djokovic since his injury lay off and for me he is still short of fitness.

Djokovic is looking real good. You have to say he will be favourite come RG. Granted he struggled in the early rounds, but he came good at the end. Similar to the AO. Stepped up when it really mattered at the back end of a tournament. He is doing what Federer did so well and peaking at the right times.

Nadal well you have to say that mentally yesterday Djokovic was in his head. Wasn't ripping his FH and his length was all over the place. Djokovic played a very disciplined length and offered very little in short balls. Nadal's serve went a miss in that match. I think Rafa just needs to play himself into form and fitness. Right now there is an opportunity for the rest of the field to claim a Clay title.

Absolutely LK, just saying similar things on the match thread. Nadal looked laboured to me yesterday, heavy on his feet and timing off all over the place, much work to be done. Don't know how Socal can call this the "new Nadal" in a positive context...he's new alright...but the older 2012 version was better. In many respects at least the loss gives Nadal a reality check on what he needs to work on. Conversely, yes Djokovic is looking good, so much for the crippled ankle stories - he'll be feeling great this morning and so he should, played a blinder yesterday. He's the man they're all chasing now.

Agreed lydian. Normally Nadal is like a bullet on the pick up on the BH to the FH and Nadal just looked a yard slower than before and was stretching to get a FH back into the court. Make no excuse Djokovic played a blinder, but the Nadal of yesteryear would've seen out that 2nd set.

I think team Nadal just needs to allow him time to play himself into shape. I think if they panic and start getting Nadal to play different shots or games will hamper him more. It is to be expected that Nadal will fluctuate in form because of the lay off and also how good his form was going into MC. Right now the priority for Nadal is RG. I don't think it will hurt him to lose in Barcelona or Rome.

lydian wrote:Absolutely LK, just saying similar things on the match thread. Nadal looked laboured to me yesterday, heavy on his feet and timing off all over the place, much work to be done. Don't know how Socal can call this the "new Nadal" in a positive context...he's new alright...but the older 2012 version was better. In many respects at least the loss gives Nadal a reality check on what he needs to work on. Conversely, yes Djokovic is looking good, so much for the crippled ankle stories - he'll be feeling great this morning and so he should, played a blinder yesterday. He's the man they're all chasing now.

I'm not running him down, but he was better in 2007/8. His flat hitting back then was crunching.

"New" Nadal isn't as good as a previous version.

Perhaps BB but perhaps as well it is because certain players have developed tactics to negate that weapon over a course of time. My point being that in 2007/08 Djoko was nowhere near the level he is now and hadn't formulated a plan.

My perspective is that this is a very big win for Djoko, and it can only be good for him and bad for Nadal. We still don't know who will win RG, but they are the overwhelming favourites to be finalists (provided the draw doesn't put them together early).

I still feel that Nadal is favourite for the French open but what this result does is makes it a whole lot more interesting and far less predictable. It will give Djokovic huge belief, if Novak brings his A game to Roland Garros then he can definitely pull it off.

I will not be foolish enough to count rafa out as a result of this, he has more than proved himself over the years. I actually thought Nadal played well yesterday but Novak was playing lights out tennis for most of the match. I wonder if nadal has ever been broken to love on clay when serving for a set, incredible stuff from novak.

Delighted Novak got the win but i still expect rafa to come back strong, he will want nothing more than than to get a shot at novak again. If they both produce their A game, could be an absolute classic at French Open. Of course they both have to get that far first !! strange things happen in sport

Do people really think that the Nadal of yesterday was the Nadal of say 2008? Really? Absolutely no way for me. Yes Djokovic drew Nadal into errors at times but so many were self-inflicted and he's letting pressure get to him of late - has been having trouble serving out sets and matches for a little while now. He's simply not fully mentally battle hardened yet and slower than he was.

As good as Novak played at 5-6 down in the 2nd to get the break back it was an absolute shocker from Nadal to be honest. Think he hit one 1st serve all game too - looking at that game in more detail:

0-0 Nadal hits a short nothing ball down the middle off Djokovic return into his FH pocket - Djokovic murders it.
0-15 Silly mistake from Nadal spraying a CC FH wide (did a lot of that yesterday - he's too slow in running around his BH still)
0-30 Nadal hits 2-3 short nothing balls down the middle, Djokovic finds the angles and again murders with a winning FH
0-40 Nadal in trouble from nothing 2nd serve, runs around the backhand mid-ralley but hits a nothing FH down the middle right into Djokovic's awaiting FH, again.

This pattern of errors and nothing balls was then repeated through the tie-break - which Nadal was by then rattled going into having just lost serve to love. Pretty much all match Nadal was constantly hitting short nothing balls into Djokovic's pocket - yes it makes Novak look fantastic ripping off winners into the corners, and they are great shots but Nadal was feeding him unnecessarily far too many times.

In reality, Novak really didn't have to do that much yesterday, just wait for the "gimme" from Nadal. Even juniors get taught gameplans where they're told to keep hitting into the corners - cut out the "nothing" balls by observing the 3 cardinal shot rules....hit with pace, spin and depth. Its basic stuff. Nadal's technique and tennis brain seems to have gone west at the moment as he was well awry vs Tsonga and Dimitrov also (remember Grigor didn't have to serve out the 2nd set, Nadal gifted it) - less pace, less spin...no depth, no angles. These are the things Djokovic would say Nadal is doing wrong if they were to imaginarily sit down together.

If he keeps doing this, plus being half a step slow, he's going to go early at Barca, Madrid and Rome...and RG....Novak is kind of the least of his worries right now. His own form is the elephant in the room cf. his high standards of old.

The thing is lydian each player has their peak. Perhaps Rafa's was in 2008 and he will never get back to that level. It happens. Perhaps we are seeing Novak's peak now and therefore will we ever know if Rafa at his peak would have hammered Novak at his peak?

I don't think it is a case of peaks CC, more a case of what is Nadal going to do to evolve his game?

Look at Federer. Albeit yes not the player he was in peak years, but he evolved the shortfalls in his game in becoming a much accurate server, became a much refined volleyer, played with more variation. It didn't yield the rich success of his peak years, but what it did do was keep him a step ahead of the chasing pack and kept him competitive with his higher ranked rivals.

Question now is what is Nadal going to do? He is a step slower and that is a massive hole in his game. For me he has to become more aggressive. That however brings with it much more energy into hitting a longer length and a flatter ball. He can't hit through Djokovic and we have yet to see how he will fare against Murray. Nadal is now more vulnerable to wider kick serves. If Del Potro hadn't played a tough 2 3 setters against Murray and Djokovic he might have had enough to take Nadal out. Even in that IW Nadal struggled to boss the match. Whilst his results have been impressive, his service games have become a tad weaker. Prior to his match with Dimitrov he only served 2 aces through the tournament. That is a statistic that needs to change.

It might be that Nadal will find success easier to come by on faster courts.

Well you have a point lk but Nadal at his peak say 2008 is what he has to strive to get back to. Personally I cannot see Rafa as the sort of player capable or willing to re-invent himself as Federer did to some degree. Rafa's success was built on a solid foundation of a gameplan which nobody could live with but his levels aren't where they were plus Novak has his number but I really cannot see Rafa either feeling the need to change or his team even trying to reinvent a new workable game plan.

bogbrush wrote:It might be that Nadal will find success easier to come by on faster courts.

It's a very worthy argument right now. Btw has he questioned the legitimacy of the clay yet?

I've always thought, contrary to popular opinion, that he prefers faster than slower courts...by that I don't mean carpet, but faster clay, medium-fast HC. His tennis grips are actually more unusual for a "claycourter" in that he has a semi-western FH...most are extreme Western, like Djokovic. Given his BH is also the usual Eastern/Conti mix its no wonder he can play well on faster courts...where he suffers there is having slower serves and refusing to play with less spin.

The long and short of it is that he's simply going to have to become more aggressive - he's an adept all court player and a very good volleyer so can do it, but making the decision to do it is enormous for him...plus its alien to all that Toni knows.

lydian wrote:The long and short of it is that he's simply going to have to become more aggressive - he's an adept all court player and a very good volleyer so can do it, but making the decision to do it is enormous for him...plus its alien to all that Toni knows.

This is something I find very intriguing.

Rafa is almost Toni's 'project'. He's far more than just a coach, he's a life tutor and he's helped develop Rafa the person. He's overseen his development from youth through to the top of the game. One gets the sense that Rafa's game plan is also Toni's blue print.

But is Toni really a great coach in true sense? Could he, for instance, coach another player to success?

Does he have the ability to construct a game beyond Rafa's plan A?

I guess we'll find out over the coming weeks!

We are at a very important stage now in Nadal's career. His game plan has been so ingrained into him as it has brought him so much success but now Novak has his number how will Rafa adapt? I am not sure that he can or will adapt to be honest as to ask him to change a career long tactic now I cannot see it. I am not sure if Rafa's fans feel he will be able to change his game plan and if he and Toni will even think it is necessary to change?

We have to remember he was formulating and executing revised tactics last year. Every player will always stick to their core gameplan in reality. Its not really a case of going from Plan A to Plan B. Its more going to Plan A Modified. Nadal cant turn into a Federer or Dimitrov, that's simply not his style. He has to work around his punishing spin and angles they can create. In some respects he doesn't have to actually change all that much - remember he's yet to be bested by Murray across their H2H as such, its only Djokovic who is currently posing problems so he cant change his game too radically or risk then losing to others he didn't lose to before. So it becomes a dilemma of how radical the change is made.

That said, he needs help to regain full form, cut down the UEs and revise his tactics. Is Toni the answer? Well he's never going to drop Toni - that just isn't going to happen at this late stage given how embedded and close knit the Nadal clan are. He could use some additional counsel though on being more aggressive - but how would he get that advice, how undermined would Toni feel? All players need to refine their games as they enter the later part of their careers...Sampras did it (ok, some not by choice after Gullikson), Henman did, Federer has done - the route to becoming more aggressive needs an aggressive mindset coach. The question then is what would they do technically? Toni is a clay court coach, that's his background as a player and coach. Carlos Costa in his camp is the same. He's getting no new input and doesn't know where he needs to change but probably feels he needs to. So he's going to find himself with the dilemma of adapting his game without alienating everything around him. Toni may have to eat humble pie and allow another coach to consult, even if they don't sit in the stands - but who would take that job on? Its not easy at all...

Just found Nadal's post match interview. He sounds quite perky and positive. Glad to see he was asked a question about Indian Wells and Monte Carlo. Here is how he puts these two tournaments in perspective.

Q. It's a little bit strange. You won on hard court and Novak Djokovic lost. Today you lost on clay and Djokovic won. How do you see that?
RAFAEL NADAL: No, is not the first time that happen. Is not the first tournament I lost on clay. Indian Wells was not the first tournament I won on hard. The same for him. Is not his first victory on clay and is not his first lose on hard. That's tennis.
Historically I played better than him on clay, little bit, yes. Historically he probably played better than me on hard, yes. But we were not one here and one there (indicating far apart). I don't know how many titles I won on hard and how many titles he won on clay.
I think both of us, we are complete players and we can play on every surface. Win or lose, we were in the finals both.

He was also asked about his chances at this years RG

Q. Will you have enough time between now and Roland Garros to get the energy levels up to what you need to retain the title?
RAFAEL NADAL: I play Barcelona. That's my schedule. Roland Garros is very far. I will try my best now to play a very good week in Barcelona. Is a tournament that I love. Roland Garros is there. We have Barcelona, then we have Madrid, then we have Rome. It's enough time, I think yes. It's more than enough. If I am keep doing as well as I did during all this week, why not?

http://www.monte-carlorolexmasters.com/News/Tennis/2013/Interview-Transcripts/Rafael-Nadal-Sunday.aspx

bogbrush wrote:

lydian wrote:Absolutely LK, just saying similar things on the match thread. Nadal looked laboured to me yesterday, heavy on his feet and timing off all over the place, much work to be done. Don't know how Socal can call this the "new Nadal" in a positive context...he's new alright...but the older 2012 version was better. In many respects at least the loss gives Nadal a reality check on what he needs to work on. Conversely, yes Djokovic is looking good, so much for the crippled ankle stories - he'll be feeling great this morning and so he should, played a blinder yesterday. He's the man they're all chasing now.

I'm not running him down, but he was better in 2007/8. His flat hitting back then was crunching.

"New" Nadal isn't as good as a previous version.

Yes I like the Nadal who had 10-12 miles an hour less pace on his serve, and no flat forehand to speak of. I love how Nadal goes from being in 5 finals to being such a depleted talent. Nadal of the last couple years is far superior to Nadal of 2007, according to his own coach early in his career Nadal had the worst serve of any of the top 100. Nadal was a flat hitter in 07-08, flatter than he is today, seriously I don't know what tour you guys are watching but it bears no resemblance to the real tour.

"I don't know how many titles I won on hard and how many titles he won on clay."

Here's the answers Mr Nadal:

Rafa - Clay 38, Hard 12, Grass 3 - total 53 (15 titles off clay)
Djoko - Clay 8, Hard 28, Grass 1 - total 37 (9 titles off hard)

Rafa W:L clay 93% (270-21)
Djoko W:L hard 81% (317-72)

Rafa W:L off clay: 76.4%
Djoko W:L off hard: 77.0%

Rafa W:L from past 4 seasons - Jan10 to Apr13: 86.0% (203-33)
Djoko W:L from past 4 seasons - Jan 10 to Apr13: 85.9% (232-38)

BTW - Murray is 78.1% (178-50), Federer is 83.9% (213-41)

Socal, in that case Djokovic would have had even less trouble with the RG 08 final Nadal right?

Interesting stats Lydian. The top 4 are pretty amazing, particularly novak, rafa and roger at over 80% winning average for past 4 years across the four surfaces. So impressive and shows what a nitemare it is to try and win a slam if you are outside top 4

socal1976 wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

lydian wrote:Absolutely LK, just saying similar things on the match thread. Nadal looked laboured to me yesterday, heavy on his feet and timing off all over the place, much work to be done. Don't know how Socal can call this the "new Nadal" in a positive context...he's new alright...but the older 2012 version was better. In many respects at least the loss gives Nadal a reality check on what he needs to work on. Conversely, yes Djokovic is looking good, so much for the crippled ankle stories - he'll be feeling great this morning and so he should, played a blinder yesterday. He's the man they're all chasing now.

I'm not running him down, but he was better in 2007/8. His flat hitting back then was crunching.

"New" Nadal isn't as good as a previous version.

Yes I like the Nadal who had 10-12 miles an hour less pace on his serve, and no flat forehand to speak of. I love how Nadal goes from being in 5 finals to being such a depleted talent. Nadal of the last couple years is far superior to Nadal of 2007, according to his own coach early in his career Nadal had the worst serve of any of the top 100. Nadal was a flat hitter in 07-08, flatter than he is today, seriously I don't know what tour you guys are watching but it bears no resemblance to the real tour.

Did you have speed gun on his footwork too? I mean, if he serves harder he must be better, right?

"No flat forehand". I really don't know what to say to that, it's just got to be a joke, right?

His backhand was far more of a threat then; it was like two forehands in fact, whereas the backhand is becoming a place to go against Nadal to get relief rather than just better than getting wiped by the forehand.

lydian wrote:Socal, in that case Djokovic would have had even less trouble with the RG 08 final Nadal right?

Yes today's djokovic if he played 08 Nadal would man handle him worse than he did today's version of Nadal or at least 2010-2013 average Nadal. If your numbers prove anything is that Nadal has been amazing the last four years so I don't see how this contradicts my earlier comment or maybe I am just not understanding the question you are posing?

socal1976 wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

lydian wrote:Absolutely LK, just saying similar things on the match thread. Nadal looked laboured to me yesterday, heavy on his feet and timing off all over the place, much work to be done. Don't know how Socal can call this the "new Nadal" in a positive context...he's new alright...but the older 2012 version was better. In many respects at least the loss gives Nadal a reality check on what he needs to work on. Conversely, yes Djokovic is looking good, so much for the crippled ankle stories - he'll be feeling great this morning and so he should, played a blinder yesterday. He's the man they're all chasing now.

I'm not running him down, but he was better in 2007/8. His flat hitting back then was crunching.

"New" Nadal isn't as good as a previous version.

Yes I like the Nadal who had 10-12 miles an hour less pace on his serve, and no flat forehand to speak of. I love how Nadal goes from being in 5 finals to being such a depleted talent. Nadal of the last couple years is far superior to Nadal of 2007, according to his own coach early in his career Nadal had the worst serve of any of the top 100. Nadal was a flat hitter in 07-08, flatter than he is today, seriously I don't know what tour you guys are watching but it bears no resemblance to the real tour.

I sort of think Djokovic back in 2008 played some of his best tennis...

socal1976. Nadal has returned from 8 months off playing unexpectedly well but it would be wrong to claim there is no evidence of the lay off. He looked particularly wobbly at MC. I've seen so many short balls hit into the net at crucial points I've lost count. He says in the interview I linked to that he feels he still lacks "intensity". What does appear noticeable is that he is a lot more up beat. The break may have allowed him to come back feeling a lot fresher.

bogbrush wrote:

socal1976 wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

lydian wrote:Absolutely LK, just saying similar things on the match thread. Nadal looked laboured to me yesterday, heavy on his feet and timing off all over the place, much work to be done. Don't know how Socal can call this the "new Nadal" in a positive context...he's new alright...but the older 2012 version was better. In many respects at least the loss gives Nadal a reality check on what he needs to work on. Conversely, yes Djokovic is looking good, so much for the crippled ankle stories - he'll be feeling great this morning and so he should, played a blinder yesterday. He's the man they're all chasing now.

I'm not running him down, but he was better in 2007/8. His flat hitting back then was crunching.

"New" Nadal isn't as good as a previous version.

Yes I like the Nadal who had 10-12 miles an hour less pace on his serve, and no flat forehand to speak of. I love how Nadal goes from being in 5 finals to being such a depleted talent. Nadal of the last couple years is far superior to Nadal of 2007, according to his own coach early in his career Nadal had the worst serve of any of the top 100. Nadal was a flat hitter in 07-08, flatter than he is today, seriously I don't know what tour you guys are watching but it bears no resemblance to the real tour.

Did you have speed gun on his footwork too? I mean, if he serves harder he must be better, right?

"No flat forehand". I really don't know what to say to that, it's just got to be a joke, right?

His backhand was far more of a threat then; it was like two forehands in fact, whereas the backhand is becoming a place to go against Nadal to get relief rather than just better than getting wiped by the forehand.

Nadal had a better flat forehand in 07/08 than today is a joke and a pretty funny one. His backhand looked more of a threat when he played Roger because Roger's backhand is weaker than both Nadal's and Novak's. Measured against Djoko or even Murray's backhand Nadal's backhand isn't as impressive. He had one day where he gave up a lot of errors on that side, so who hasn't. As I said I will take the Nadal that can serve 130 miles and hour and hits aces on occasion over the Nadal who struggled to out mph the WTA stars early in his career.

socal1976 wrote:

lydian wrote:Socal, in that case Djokovic would have had even less trouble with the RG 08 final Nadal right?

Yes today's djokovic if he played 08 Nadal would man handle him worse than he did today's version of Nadal or at least 2010-2013 average Nadal. If your numbers prove anything is that Nadal has been amazing the last four years so I don't see how this contradicts my earlier comment or maybe I am just not understanding the question you are posing?

Ha ha! socal. I think you are getting well carried away. Have you hit the bottle in celebration? Djokovic has won one MC and from that your giving him Rafa's previous titles...

I'm surprised that people think Nadal was at his peak in 2008

If your remember it was the Nadal of 2010 that even had his detractors admiring him (or insulting him, even more on 606 - which is the same thing )

Both Murray and Djokovic, frustratingly realised that they'd have to improve some more to get a fair crack at him - we could argue that Nole flatlined during this time (09/10) but found his infamous gluten diet

Federer, did something no-one thought the obstinate genuis would ever do and got a coach

Murray dispensed with his old coaching team

We can all argue about whether these were coincidences of even whether they work. What no-one can argue with is that these were responses to the domination of Rafa

He's not there now and for me it's the 2011 defeats, more than the last injury that has brought him 'back' to the pack

Not quite sure how Nadals backhand looked stronger playing to Federers forehand because of Federers backhand. That's just illogical.

Nadal hit his best tennis back then, you'll find most Nadal fans feel the same way. In some ways I think pushing Federer at W '07 was a higher standard than in '08; at least in '07 Federer was completely healthy that year and going well into that 5th set Nadal looked the more likely winner. In '08 Federer was having a terrible year, losing to all and sundry (Roddick, Fish, Blake (!!!), etc.), and going into the 5th Nadal looked shakier.

'10 was great stuff too, a sensible debate can be had over that versus '07 / '08.

The 2008 Nadal was off the charts. His length at that point on all surfaces was frighteningly good. Thing with Nadal then was that the pressure he could put on the server with the return was ridiculous. Almost to within an inch of the baseline. You look at the performances that stopped him that year, inspired Tsonga and an aggressive Murray shows what it took to beat him.

The whole thing with the serve, yes he has served faster but that brings with it higher risk. You need to look no further than Murray to see the risk with a less consistent power first serve.

If anything I think the advances in strings have certainly made Nadal weaker, especially now his length has dropped off. It is right in Djokovic's hit zone and as he has the confidence to take it on shows the weakness in his game. Djokovic is bad match up to Nadal like Nadal was to Federer.

Yep LK. Come on socal, you've been at the sherry. Rafa 2008 was an utter clay beast handing out bagels for fun. He beat Almagro 61 61 61 in the QF at RG that year. Verdaco won the same no. of games a couple of rounds earlier. Infact he also straight sets beat Novak too at RG08 - that's the Djokovic who himself had hardly lost a set all clay season having won Rome Masters dropping only 1 set along the way, bagelling people at MC before retiring against Federer in SF and ripping through the Hamburg draw until meeting Nadal in SF - taking 1 set off him there. The point is that clay season 13 Nadal is nowhere near clay season 08 Nadal, yet...maybe wont be at all, its a tall order to get back to that form.

LK, actually you bring up a really good observation and point. I think since he changed to RPM Blast from Duralast in 2010 he's been losing length consistently more over time. OK, 2010 was a great season but since then he's not been able to find the length like he used to do unless he's absolutely on top of his game. The RPM string creates so much spin that its easier than before to end up dropping the ball short if the horizontal follow through gets reduced - which it does when you get tight, etc.

I think he needs to look at his string set-up, maybe take the tension off a little, make it slacker like Federer has done. Remember Fed's FH is not massively different to Nadal's, he also hits with huge FH topspin RPM but uses much slacker strings 46-50 vs Nadal's std 55lbs tension. That's 10% lower ... meaning a lot more power and therefore length from the same amount of energy put into horizontal striking. Nadal rarely hits long...so adding some more length through tension could restore what he lost moving to RPM Blast.

Funny, someone tell Nadal to serve slower so he can be as good as he was in 08. I remember 08 and I remember off of the clay Nadal being beaten by Davydenko and the blakes of the world. On clay he was amazing but no way can you compare 08 Djokovic to today's djokovic. I find it funny that supposedly Djokovic after getting in better shape, changing his forehand, working assiduously for the last 5 years, and now being in his prime is remotely comparable to 08 djokovic. So I don't see where Nadal's victory over 08 Djokovic on clay proves that Nadal in 08 was better than what we have seen the last few years. Same stuff was said when Novak beat Nadal in 7 straight finals in 2011. All of a sudden Nadal was not the same Nadal who trounced Federer regularly in slams. Except most amusingly Nadal reached basically the final of every tournament he entered for like 6 months, now that he was losing to one guy (in a number of close finals) all of sudden he became a shell of himself.

Of course Nadal was running rampant on the clay in 08 his two closest rivals were a grass court player with a single handed backhand and eastern forehand and Novak the asthmatic puppy version of what we see today. The golden era was just starting to take shape back then with the rise of Novak, Murray, and the continued improvement of Nadal. Nadal maybe not yesterday, but in general the last few years is a much better all court player than the Nadal of 07/08. It isn't even close, he used to lose all the time off the clay to hot flat ball hitters on the hardcourt. Ill take 2010-2013 Nadal over 2005-2008 Nadal anyday of the week and twice on sunday.

There's really more to the game than serve, socal. On clay it's even less relevant.

Nadal '07 -'10 will probably be remembered as his peak years.

Even on the clay, he never faced an opponent who could out last him and out blast him from both wings till Djoko 2.0. Roger is a fast court player par excellence who can play on clay, Djokovic 2.0 is a baseline monster who can hit 1000 spinning forehands with laser precision to all corners of the court and not breakdown. 2011 and 2012 Nadal are all of sudden post peak, very amusing BB. The guy won FO and nearly killed djokovic in the final of AO 2012 before he got hurt, hell he had a mile lead in the points race when he got injured. He played in the final of every tournament in 2011 for like six months and minus Novak had his best year against other top ten players. Novak brought Nadal back down to earth, if he didn't arrive like the man of steel in 2011, we could have been talking about Nadal as Laver. Now you guys want to rewrite history and pretend that Nadal of the last few years isn't as good as the Nadal who was beating Federer in his peak.

Socal, I don't buy Nadal or Djokovic are much technically different (or better) as players in 2013 vs 2008. The biggest change to Novak is simply his stamina and conditioning, all other benefits stem from that. Before 2011 he would retire left and right, now he's the fittest guy on tour, outlasts Nadal, and recovers and repairs like a Transformers autobot. His conditioning is obviously very different from back then - that's the main difference to me.

For example - back in 2008 Djokovic won AO, won IW, had a very strong clay season winning Rome and SFs elsewhere (16-3 clay record), close runner up at Cincy, got to USO SF with a very strong performance against Federer, then won the World Tour Finals. The guy was an awesome player then. As was Nadal. Yet Nadal beat him twice on clay that year (is the point...) for the loss of 1 set. You spraying bullets all over the place with points about 2011, grass, Murray, etc...isn't relevant to the 2008 vs 2013 clay comparison.

These are IMO two of the best Djokovic matches in terms of quality. Played way back in 2008.

https://www.606v2.com/t41683-two-of-the-best-rafa-nole-matches

True, if we had to point to one thing it would be the huge turnaround in Djokovic's fitness. Just as its said that Nadal's fortitude stemmed from his confidence in his gameplan, so also is Djokovic's based on the certain knowledge that it will be the opponent who runs out of gas first. Hence he has no need to try to end rallies.

Yes Djokovic in 2008 would get crushed by today's djokovic. Not only is today's djokovic fitter and more confident he is a much better player in general. The forehand is better and heavier, which bears directly on how he plays on clay. His slice backhands and volleys are much better as well. You made the comparison of Nadal's victory over 2008 Djoko on clay, I can't think of another serious commentator who views Djokovic of today less favorably to Novak of 08. He is better technically and of course fitness wise.

I doubt anyone is suggesting he's not better. He is, though, playing less impressive opponents. That's pretty much indisputable.