Putting Things In Perspective (Indian Wells And Monte Carlo)

First topic message reminder :

It's always sad when a winning streak comes to an end. Nadal couldn't add to his 8 consecutive titles at Monte Carlo and Djokovic wins the first battle on clay this season. This was of course an important win for Djokovic but those writing Nadal off because of this one loss are perhaps getting a little ahead of themselves and forgetting about Indian Wells.

Djokovic won Monte Carlo (His first Masters title this year) beating Monaco, Nieminem, Fognini and Nadal in the last 4 rounds

Nadal won Indian Wells beating Gulbis, Federer, Berdych and Del Potro in the last 4 rounds.

They are one a piece in terms of Masters Titles. Nadal with a hard court title and a clay court final. Djokovic with a clay court title. It could be argued that Nadals draw at IW was a bit more tricky than Djokovics draw at Monte Carlo (apart from the final. Ha ha!). They both have one 500 title too. Djokovic has Dubai on Hard and Nadal has Acapulco on clay.

So since Nadals return they both are close. Both have a mixture of Hard and Clay titles.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:

bogbrush wrote: Top Fed changes the whole feel of an era. Top Murray just means there's a really good player around.

Security! We've got a live one!

What I want from each and every one of you is a hard-target search of every gas station, residence, warehouse, farmhouse, henhouse, outhouse and doghouse in that area. Checkpoints go up at fifteen miles. Your fugitive's name is bogbrush. Go get him.

I think he meant the Open Era

Knowing BB's level of admiration for Fed, he could have meant the Cenozoic Era!

lydian wrote:Good points LK, agreed. Yes also agree CC, with Murray there have been more issues to sort out. He's changed from W to SW later on so he's had to iron that out and is still prone to topping the ball though. His 2nd is getting better but it's never going to be a strength.

Socal, I'm not suggesting Djokovic was at peak in 2008 - clearly he's improved strength, fitness, tactics, confidence, etc. But you are not listening to me - his actual technique on
a) serve is no better, arguably not as good now as 2007/8 actually
b) his FH is no different in technique...his racquet is different, also what you're talking about is tactics, i.e. use of FH
c) slice is no different technically...just grooved a little more perhaps under pressure
d) volleys are a little better but his technique is no different...and his volleying in 2008 wasn't bad actually

You're confusing base technique with application of technique and tactics. Djokovic was a very complete player in 2008 - he was a prodigy don't forget, hence why he raced up the rankings almost like Nadal did.

Re: dates, he got Martin on board at the END of 2009 because some glitches had cropped up from a shoulder injury. Martin thought he could change the action (reduce elbow height and some other trophy position aspects) to reduce injury but it never needed changing, just needed the injury to go. Novak then realised it wasnt working and sending him backwards, so started reverting back to his old technique from around Apr/May 2010 but it took 6 months to fully harmonise again. It all seemed to come together around DC Final 2010 and that launched him into 2011.

I agree with you on the DC final if you want to see Djokovic clicking with his old serve back go check 2010 DC final. Also in 09 he changed his racquet and did have a bit of a shoulder injury as well which again I agree with you as well. And I also agree with you on the fact that he was a brilliant player in 08, I never questioned it. But again you talk about tactics and application of technique, I call it improving as a ball striker. No player comes on tour and wins a slam and reaches world #3 and then completely overhauls and changes all his shots.

You say his volleys, slice backhand , and his forehand are more consistent; I consider this to be improvements in his ball striking. A player who is less consistent in one area of his ball striking and then becomes more consistent guess what just got better. This is why CC thinks you are agreeing with me. Because you basically concede that these areas of hitting a tennis ball have become more consistent and refined but refuse to say he has improved technically or as a ball striker. Being more consistent at hitting a shot is improving at hitting a tennis ball. Having confidence in that shot isn't pulled out of nowhere, hours of repetition and on court success makes you better. We agree in many areas, and you even agree with me that at least he has become more consistent and better in applying his tactics and techniques, to me this is the same thing as saying he is a better ball striker. This is like a dispute over terminology. A person who is more consistent and successful at hitting a particular shot has improved that shot and become better at striking a tennis ball, he doesn't need to revolutionize his swing style or grip to have improved technically he just has to be more effective at applying and repeating his swing. Especially, if there is nothing technically wrong to begin with as the adage goes if it isn't broke don't fix it.

By the way you fixate too much on ace counts. Novak in the last three years holds at higher or same rate than Djoko 07/08 and his second serve numbers are tick better as well. Aces are not the be all and end all of good serving. I would rather be the guy with the best second serve on tour than the guy hits the most aces. To me good serving is more focused on how well you defend your second and most importantly your hold percentage, these numbers are not lower than they were in 2008 if anything they are as high or a tick better if you look at the last couple of years and compare back.

Djokovic's improvement and Murray's both make up for fed's ageing. Plus I am in no way convinced that RAfa of the last couple of years is inferior to the past, the numbers don't bear that out and neither does Nadal's propensity to reach the finals of everything he enters for months at a time. No way Murray and Djokovic are the same quality shotmakers and players in general that they were in 08/07. Their combined brilliance and roger's slow and gradual decline has resulted in the combined big 4 being more dominant than ever.

socal1976 wrote: Plus I am in no way convinced that RAfa of the last couple of years is inferior to the past, the numbers don't bear that out and neither does Nadal's propensity to reach the finals of everything he enters for months at a time.

Yes, Rafa was brilliant in all three of his full seasons of the last five years (08, 10, 11). There was even debate on this forum about whether 08 or 10 were one of the 'great' seasons.

I truly believe 11 would have been his best year ever if it weren't for the crazy form of the one player on tour who is a bad match up for him. Against any other player than peak Djokovic, I'm convinced we'd have had a Rafa slam.

HM Murdoch wrote:

socal1976 wrote: Plus I am in no way convinced that RAfa of the last couple of years is inferior to the past, the numbers don't bear that out and neither does Nadal's propensity to reach the finals of everything he enters for months at a time.

Yes, Rafa was brilliant in all three of his full seasons of the last five years (08, 10, 11). There was even debate on this forum about whether 08 or 10 were one of the 'great' seasons.

I truly believe 11 would have been his best year ever if it weren't for the crazy form of the one player on tour who is a bad match up for him. Against any other player than peak Djokovic, I'm convinced we'd have had a Rafa slam.

I think Nadal stood a good chance of pulling off a Rafa slam at some point between 2011 and 2012 if not for djokovic. Even in 2012 he was leading the points race when he went out to injury. And even 2013 he has been to 5 straight finals and won the biggest hardcourt master's event on tour. People just can't get around the idea that Federer or Nadal at their best could be overtaken by another lesser player. If they don't beat that player and win the tournament then it must be because Nadal is degraded, not that player X in this case Djokovic has improved. Nadal had an incredible 2010 and people forget that going into AO 2011, which he got injured in by the way Nadal had won 3 straight slams. If you go back to 2010 and look at the results of 2010-2012 together it becomes even more clear. FO 2010 champion Nadal, Wimby 2010 champion Nadal, USO 2010 champion Nadal, AO 2011 (injured lost in Quarters I believe), FO 2011 champion Nadal, Wimbeldon 2011 finalist, USO 2011 finalist, AO 2012 finalist, FO 2012 Champion. From the French open of 2010 till the French open of 2012 Nadal reached the finals of 8 out 9 slams. When did he ever routinely reach hardcourt finals in 07 and 08? Ill take the average Nadal of the last couple of years over the average Nadal of 05-08 anyday of the week and twice on sunday.

I don't know about "putting things in perspective" but this thread has taught me one thing... Never take on socal1976 in a "debate". He will win on fitness and you will be left exhausted going but, but, but... but any valid argument you may have had you just won't have the energy to stick with...

hawkeye wrote:I don't know about "putting things in perspective" but this thread has taught me one thing... Never take on socal1976 in a "debate". He will win on fitness and you will be left exhausted going but, but, but... but any valid argument you may have had you just won't have the energy to stick with...

HE, valid arguments like 10 miles an hour on Nadal's first serve is irrelevant, or valid arguments like Djokovic has stayed the same in terms of quality ball striking since he was 19 or 20 despite years of Spartan work on tour, the best coaching, good health, and better results. Funny that when asked about his own improvement Djokovic basically says the same exact thing that I say. He made a lot of small improvements in all areas that came together at once. I guess Djokovic is lying or doesn't understand his own game either. Fedal myopia is a major illness it seems on this website. If Nadal loses to djokovic it must mean that Nadal is not as good as he was, it can't possibly mean that Djokovic has improved more than he has.

Socal, there's a great Djokovic article on tennis.com but this stood out:

"Djokovic played a magnificent match to throttle Nadal in the 2012 Australian Open, but at that time the theme was still “Djokovic is in Nadal’s head” — just as the theme a few years earlier had been, “Nadal is in Federer’s head.” In either case, the implication was the same: The problem lies in the head of Nadal or Federer — not in the superior game, spirit, or even head of Djokovic or Nadal."

Very true!

HM Murdoch wrote:Socal, there's a great Djokovic article on tennis.com but this stood out:

"Djokovic played a magnificent match to throttle Nadal in the 2012 Australian Open, but at that time the theme was still “Djokovic is in Nadal’s head” — just as the theme a few years earlier had been, “Nadal is in Federer’s head.” In either case, the implication was the same: The problem lies in the head of Nadal or Federer — not in the superior game, spirit, or even head of Djokovic or Nadal."

Very true!

Exactly, Murdoch. I read that article by the way and agree wholeheartedly. Same thing we see here, if Nadal beats the tar out of the whole tour and loses to Djokovic, who also is having better results than he has ever had against the rest of the tour; well the logical assumption that we are asked to accept on this site is that Nadal must not be as good as he was or he has developed a psychological block of some kind. You don't get into a player's head through Voodoo or Indian rain dance, you get into their dome by beating them and shattering their confidence by winning and hitting better shots. Nadal and Djokovic ran roughshod over the tour in 2011, and Novak ran roughshod over Nadal. The party line seems to be that this means Novak stayed the same with improved stamina and Nadal got a worse. When in actuality the only logical conclusion that can be drawn is that Novak got better than he was. Especially when you look at his results and look at Nadal's results against everyone else. And when analyzing where the improvement has come in just look at the man's own answers when he says it isn't just one thing, but it involves better shotmaking, fitness, belief, and maturity. Instead there seems to be a desire to focus only on the fitness.

From 2005-08 how many grandslam finals did Nadal reach on a hardcourt? 0

From 2010-2012 how many grandslam finals did Nadal reach on a hardcourt? 4

Well that must mean that Nadal is a shell of the player he was in 2008. The unassailable validity of these arguments has caused me to shart myself.

The double standards some people employ are quite hilarious, particularly from certain nadal fans. Apparently now that Novak owns Rafa the latter is supposedly not as good as he used to be. However, federer, according to those same fans was somehow as good as ever or even better than ever in 2012 despite being 5 years older than Nadal and having played around 350 more matches.

Interesting how we all like to create our own narratives.

My view is that Rafa has been about the same from 2008 onwards. 2011 would have been his best year ever on tour were it not for Djokovic

emancipator wrote:The double standards some people employ are quite hilarious, particularly from certain nadal fans. Apparently now that Novak owns Rafa the latter is supposedly not as good as he used to be. However, federer, according to those same fans was somehow as good as ever or even better than ever in 2012 despite being 5 years older than Nadal and having played around 350 more matches.

Interesting how we all like to create our own narratives.

My view is that Rafa has been about the same from 2008 onwards. 2011 would have been his best year ever on tour were it not for Djokovic

Nice to have you back emancipator, and for a change we agree on something. Apparently between Nadal's winning 3 straight slams to finish off 2010 and getting beat up in the first half of the year in 2011 by Novak he got a lot worse over that offseason.

Nadal started 2011 aged 24, coming off a career best season, he was basically in the form of his life. He played the whole season with no injuries. The bottom line is that peak Novak is better than peak nadal on all surfaces with clay being a toss up. When I say better I mean of course in this matchup - against the tour and overall of course Rafa has been better.

Emancipator, you've come back from a short break with some fire in your belly and are busting chops and taking no prisoners!

I like it!

Exactly, Murdoch and Emancipator somehow from winning the USOpen, Wimbeldon, and RG on the trot in 2010, just a few months later Novak was putting a 7-0 run on him. During this same period Nadal made the final of virtually every tournament he entered to only get slammed down by djoko. Lets remember IW and Miami of 2011, Nadal reached the finals of the two big Hardcourt master's on the trot so there is no reason to believe that there was some hidden slump to Nadal's form that only showed up against Djokovic.

This discussion isn't getting anywhere now. Socal, you know full well my comments on this thread revolved around comparing 2013 clay vs 2008 clay. Nothing else, the rest of the discussion about 2011, about HCs, etc, is incidental fluff. It's not the work of Einstein to assert the current 2013 Nadal on clay is not a patch on the 2008 Nadal. I don't see what's so controversial about that. That was my point when people on here were getting all giddy about Djokovic winning MC and nothing short of proclaiming him anointed GOAT in waiting. It was a great win but no-one is fooling themselves this is 2008 clay Nadal when IMO he hit peak on that surface (again, I'm not talking about 09/10/11 HC Nadal). Sure he did well in 2010 on clay too but I don't think his standard was any higher than 2008 on clay. It was more a case of Federer not pushing him as before, Djokovic being off colour until later in the year and Murray still not finding his feet, literally, on the surface.

Regarding Djokovic, our discussion centres around consistency, fitness and mental strength. I say he's essentially been the same ball striker since 07/08, you say he's more consistent now so that means he's a better ball striker. I don't agree, it's semantics but I don't see it the same. If Djokovic can hit 7/10 FHs down the line of a certain quality in 2008 and then 9/10 of the same quality in 2011 it doesn't mean the extra 2 shots are better, it doesn't mean the 9 overall are any better...they're the same shot, he's just hitting the same ones abit more often. For me that speaks to mental strength gains, not technical gains. In having the confidence to go for the shots and get them in. What technique gain moves him from 7/10 to 9/10 on a given shot? A huge part of that comes from conditioning and his winning habit thereof. We'll just have to disagree...and regarding slices and volleys, well to be honest it's all moot as >90% of his shots are serves, FHs and BHs. Given his serve and BH are certainly no better, arguably not as good in the serve area, perhaps you can tell me what has specifically changed in his FH to move from 7/10 to say 9/10 hitting pressure shots if its not mental confidence gains?

Surely if he is upping the amount of times he is hitting shots up the line (winners?) then that is an improvement is it not?

But you are right the discussion is going around in circles. I do seem to recall similar instances in the past. When Rafa went on to beat grass-master Federer at Wimbledon there was a similar out-pouring of glee be Nadal fans and how great it was and Djoko fans are merely doing the same. I agree that things cannot be judged on one random match but remember Rafa has had a very rough time of late in matches against Djoko even before his injury so this defeat on a court he has owned for a couple of years short of a decade is worrying if you are a Rafa fan.

Yes re: Fed 08 Wimb. I'm not too worried CC, to be honest he's playing better than I expected and I wondered if he'd ever come back at all. After that long a period a player really starts to see life differently, away from tennis, so even if they recover physically the mind may never get to that solitary focal place again. Djokovic is a bad match up for him, always has been since 2006...the question is how he does in his other 75+ matches per year given he actually faces Djokovic only a small number of those, albeit at important stages.

Re: FH winners...we're talking about someone with great technique and ball striking ability already by 2007/8. To get that extra 10% consistency does it come from technique or mental gains...I say mental, Socal says technical essentially...so I'm wondering where the technical gain is? Better follow through, better use of left arm, better footwork to the shot, etc?

I think it is a bit of both - technical and mental. Do you not feel though that the time has come for Nadal to re-examine his whole game plan and style particularly against Djoko considering the amount of defeats he has taken in recent times against the Serb? Or will Toni take comfort that the tried and trusted style that has worked to present can beat anyone else barring Djoko so they will stick with that?