Heineken Cup Qualification

League qualification for next season's premier European qualification are nearly done and dusted, with only Bath and Exeter fighting out the final spot in the Jeff.

Connacht and Dragons will finish bottom of the Irish and Welsh teams in the Rabo, but Connacht have two chances of a wildcard with either (or both) of Munster and Leinster winning their respective Euro Cups.

Perpignan cannot catch Montpellier for 6th place in T14, so the French qualifiers are Clermont, Toulon, Toulouse, Castres, Racing Metro and Montpellier. Perpignan would get the 7th placed wildcard if Clermont or Toulon win the HC, but only if Leinster win the Amlin - they would earn their own place by winning the Amlin, as could Stade Francais or Biarritz.

The top 4 in AP are decided, but not yet necessarily in which order, so Sarries, Leicester, Quins and Saints have qualified. Exeter will earn their spot in 5th or 6th place with a win over Gloucester in a fortnight, but Gloucester, 3 points ahead of Exe and 2 wins better off than Bath, have already qualified regardless of that result. Bath, trailing Exeter by 2 points, need to win at Allianz Park with Exeter losing - there are also unlikely bonus point combinations which could affect the placings, but Bath would need to overcome a 67 point differential if the two teams finish level on points in the table.

A French HC/ACC double would give the 2nd wildcard place to the best non-qualified, non-French Euro-ranked team, London Wasps.

An Irish HC/ACC double would give the 2nd wildcard place to the best non-qualified, non-Irish Euro-ranked team, Biarritz.

A Sarries HC win would see the AP's 7th placed team promoted to HC, either Bath or Exeter.

So, 21 of next season's HC competitiors are known, with Bath/Exeter to be decided in a fortnight. Wildcards, some of which will be winnowed out this weekend, include Connacht, Perpignan, Stade Francais, Biarritz, Bath/Exeter and London Wasps.

Super summary, Dub

What are the seedings looking like?

Good one. Well put.

I had not realised the Glos had already qualified. Had the rest worked out though.

Seedings based on Exeter 6th and Leinster Clermont wins

1
Leinster
Toulouse
Clermont
Toulon
Munster
Ulster Rugby

2
Northampton
Harlequins
Cardiff Blues
Saracens
Leicester
Perpignan

3
Edinburgh
Ospreys
Scarlets
Glasgow
Montpellier
Connacht

4
Gloucester
Castres
Racing Métro
Exeter
Treviso
Zebre

Ulster could slip down if Either Sarries win the HC OR Biarritz win the Amlin OR (Strangely) 2 Irish teams win.

Sarries beat Munster in the final AND Biarritz qualify..... Ulster and Toulon drop.

Sarries beat Clermont in the final AND Biarritz qualify..... Ulster and Munster drop.

Holy moly! Check out the first 3 names in pool 4!!!!! 3 pools of death next year, I think
Edinburgh's stint as 2nd seeds didn't last long and I am a bit surprised to see the Weeg in there. I thought they were 4th seeds?

Leinster guaranteed to pull Jonny Sexton from Tier 4

InjuredYetAgain wrote:Holy moly! Check out the first 3 names in pool 4!!!!! 3 pools of death next year, I think
Edinburgh's stint as 2nd seeds didn't last long and I am a bit surprised to see the Weeg in there. I thought they were 4th seeds?

Ahem, first 4 names in pool 4.

Question for the cognoscenti - the 3rd/4th seedings fall within those on 7 ranking points. On the ERC website, Connacht are ranked higher than Glos and Bath, though all 3 have 2 points from this season's campaigns, and Bath and Glos have 2 from last season's compared to only 1 by Connacht. I thought that positions are decided on countback - this season's, then last season's etc, which would put Connacht below the other 2. Could it be that Connacht's 2 HC points out-rank Glos and Bath's 2 Amlin points?

Dubbelyew L Overate wrote:

InjuredYetAgain wrote:Holy moly! Check out the first 3 names in pool 4!!!!! 3 pools of death next year, I think
Edinburgh's stint as 2nd seeds didn't last long and I am a bit surprised to see the Weeg in there. I thought they were 4th seeds?

Ahem, first 4 names in pool 4.

Question for the cognoscenti - the 3rd/4th seedings fall within those on 7 ranking points. On the ERC website, Connacht are ranked higher than Glos and Bath, though all 3 have 2 points from this season's campaigns, and Bath and Glos have 2 from last season's compared to only 1 by Connacht. I thought that positions are decided on countback - this season's, then last season's etc, which would put Connacht below the other 2. Could it be that Connacht's 2 HC points out-rank Glos and Bath's 2 Amlin points?

Yep. Beshocked will tear his hair out if this happens. Being in the HC is the decider.

Oops, sorry Dubs. I have a horrible feeling ASBO will be on the warpath re my little faux pas there too

This has already been done (hate you Jen) but I spent so long writing it and working it out I'm going to post it anyway. Sunk cost bias.

Munster, Leinster, Ulster
Saracens, Northampton, Gloucester, Leicester, Harlequins
Clermont, Toulon, Toulouse, Castres, Racing Metro, Montpellier
Ospreys, Scarlets, Blues
Glasgow, Edinburgh
Treviso, Zebre

Possible qualifiers; Connacht, Perpignan, Stade Francais, Biarritz, Bath, Exeter and London Wasps.

Definite Top Seeds; Leinster (1), Toulouse (2), Clermont(4), Toulon(5), Munster (6)
Possible Top Seeds; Ulster(7), Biarritz(3), Stade Francais(9).

Biarritz are in the Top 6 but can only qualify for the Heineken Cup via winning Amlin, otherwise Ulster (7th currently) or Stade (9th but would rise to 7th if Amlin champs) will be a top seed. Stade Francais need to win the Amlin to qualify too, but that would be enough enough to bump Ulster down a place and into the second tier. Stade are the only club with games left in Europe who can overtake Ulster. Ulster will be a top seed next year if both Biarritz and Stade fail to win the Amlin. If either of those sides win it it's down to the second tier for us and the winner is rewarded by a juicy seeding for the HC next year. Blanco's bluffers could be rewarded by an Irish double, which would be doubly grating for Ulster as we listen to the crowing of intolerable neighbours and get bumped for a team that screwed up qualifying from the easiest pool in years and lost an Amlin semi.

Definite Second Seeds; Saracens(12), Northampton(8), Cardiff(11), Harlequins(10), Leicester(13)
Possible Second Seeds; Ulster(7), Perpignan(14)

The English aren't going to be represented amongst the top seeds, but second tier is very anglocentric. Saracens are the only quarter finalist in the HC not to be in the Top 6, but they can't get enough points through winning this season to overhaul Ulster- they highest ranking they can achieve is 8th. Ulster will drop down should Stade or Biarritz win the Amlin. There is a reprieve for Leicester who are teetering on the edge of dropping into the third tier. They are 13th and Perpignan are going to push them into 14th whatever happens. But only one of the three remaining French clubs in the Amlin can qualify and all are ranked ahead of Leicester, meaning two teams in the Top 12 at the end of the season will not be in the HC. So 14th place is (just) enough to make the second tier.

Definite Third Seeds; Edinburgh(15), Ospreys(17), Scarlets(18), Glasgow(19), Montpellier(20)
Possible Third Seeds; London Wasps, Connacht, Bath

More straight forward now- Connacht are the top of several sides tied on 7 points die to most recent participation in the Heineken Cup. Should Leinster or Munster win a Cup they will take their place in the third tier. Wasps will be third seeds if a French double occurs. Bath can only be in the third tier if Saracens win the HC and a French side wins the Amlin, even if they qualify conventionally- Connacht will be ahead of them if any Irish side wins a trophy, which is (to be honest) totally arbitrary and mad if you think about it. And if the French do the double Wasps will take that last third tier spot.

Definite Fourth Seeds; Gloucester, Castres, Racing Metro, Treviso, Zebre
Possible Fourth Seeds; Bath, Exeter

The rest. I think thats right. The only way Bath can qualify and be a third seed is if Sarries win the Cup which brings in Exeter. Otherwise, the final English league qualifier will join the fourth tier.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:Ulster could slip down if Either Sarries win the HC OR Biarritz win the Amlin OR (Strangely) 2 Irish teams win.

Yep, a Munster-Leinster double would put Biarritz in the Top Seeds again. Ah, the charmed life of Serge Blanco. Seriously lucky team Biarritz.

Notch wrote:
Definite Top Seeds; Leinster (1), Toulouse (2), Clermont(4), Toulon(5), Munster (6)

These 2 not definite as I posted above

Not sure if this is right, but reading the ERC gubbins it seems that the HC winner is automatically No 1 seed, so a Sarries victory could propel them into the 1st tier?

That was my next hole in notches post. there are a few more. but one of my daughters has fecked me off the pc and I'm not going through it on my phone.

Nope, they are. Saracens can't overtake them- maximum Saracens can get for this year is 17, Ulster and Munster are on 20 and 22 respectively.

http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/ranking.php

Saracens have 7 already this year for reaching the semi-final. Get to the final it's 9. Win it its 11. That isn;t enough for top seed.

Only team that can overtake Ulster are Munster are Stade.

Dubbelyew L Overate wrote:Not sure if this is right, but reading the ERC gubbins it seems that the HC winner is automatically No 1 seed, so a Sarries victory could propel them into the 1st tier?

Feckers.

Notch wrote:Nope, they are. Saracens can't overtake them- maximum Saracens can get for this year is 17, Ulster and Munster are on 20 and 22 respectively.

http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/ranking.php

Saracens have 7 already this year for reaching the semi-final. Get to the final it's 9. Win it its 11. That isn;t enough for top seed.

Only team that can overtake Ulster are Munster are Stade.

HC winners are always top seeds

Yeah I saw.

Notch wrote:
Possible Top Seeds; Ulster(7), Biarritz(3), Stade Francais(9).

Nope

Notch wrote:
Biarritz are in the Top 6 but can only qualify for the Heineken Cup via winning Amlin,

Nope. 2 x Irish wins will put them in too.

Notch wrote:Stade (9th but would rise to 7th if Amlin champs) will be a top seed.

Nope

Stade can get max 20. Ulster would stay ahead because they were in the HC

Notch wrote:
Definite Second Seeds; Saracens(12), Northampton(8), Cardiff(11), Harlequins(10), Leicester(13)
Possible Second Seeds; Ulster(7), Perpignan(14)

Nope. As above.

I'm starting to enjoy this. It's all off the top of my head though so feel free to check it.

Notch wrote:
The English aren't going to be represented amongst the top seeds,

Ah Jaysis! I can't even get through a sentence now

Notch wrote:Stade are the only club with games left in Europe who can overtake Ulster.

Missed that one.

Notch wrote: Ulster will drop down should Stade or Biarritz win the Amlin.

Fish in a barrel

To be honest Jen, it's all based on one mistake re. winners always being top seeds. So you're being kind of a d!ck.

Notch wrote:Perpignan are going to push them into 14th whatever happens.

Bong! SF win on Friday and Perp stay behind Leicester

Notch wrote: But only one of the three remaining French clubs in the Amlin can qualify and all are ranked ahead of Leicester,

Getting boring now

Notch wrote:

More straight forward now-

Just as well

Notch wrote:Bath can only be in the third tier if Saracens win the HC and a French side wins the Amlin,

Not sure but that looks right. My head is beginning to hurt now. There MAY be a scenario where Connacht could be 4th seed but I give up now.

Alright you massive, massive Muppet.

Well done on having the seedings memorised. I think it's time to stop.

Notch wrote:This has already been done (hate you Jen)

Bet you never realised just how much!

Well I have revealed myself to be a total plonker at this stage in fairness.

Notch wrote:To be honest Jen, it's all based on one mistake re. winners always being top seeds. So you're being kind of a d!ck.

Jaysus. That's wrong too. The one mistake bit not the me being a dick bit.

Yeah, whatever, good luck.

Notch wrote:Yeah, whatever, good luck.

Jaysus you take this very seriously

Best to just laugh and move on.

ERC* (vs Eurotable) rankings ( http://www.eurorugby.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Rugger&file=latest )

1
Leinster (2)
Toulouse (14)
Clermont (1)
Toulon (6)
Munster (16)
Ulster Rugby (4) Ave ET ranking 7.2

2
Northampton (13)
Harlequins (5)
Cardiff Blues (31)
Saracens (3)
Leicester (10)
Perpignan (11) Ave ET ranking 12.2

3
Edinburgh (35)
Ospreys (15)
Scarlets (21)
Glasgow (12)
Montpellier (9)
Connacht (30) Ave ET ranking 20.3

4
Gloucester (20)
Castres (8)
Racing Métro (7)
Exeter (17)
Treviso (28)
Zebre (38) Ave ET ranking 19.6

Some bones there for the dogs to chew on...

*As per OP

Apologies to Dubbelyew and Notch for destroying this thread in a fit of madness. I had originally intended to just make 3 corrections but just got carried away. (I thought it was funny at the time....)

Anyway.... Simple situation now.

Leinster win the Amlin and we get the tiers above including Connacht and Perpignan.

Leinster don't win the Amlin and we get Wasps and Stade Francais replacing the other 2 respectively. (same tiers)

Not a problem Jen.

greytiger wrote:ERC* (vs Eurotable) rankings ( http://www.eurorugby.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Rugger&file=latest )

4
Gloucester (20)
Castres (8)
Racing Métro (7)
Exeter (17)
Treviso (28)
Zebre (38) Ave ET ranking 19.6

Some bones there for the dogs to chew on...

*As per OP

Zebre stick out like a sore thumb. The other five teams are respectable outfits capable of causing anyone some big problems. But I actually want to welcome Exeter to Ravenhill next year- Perpignan, one of the other Welsh/Scottish Pro12 sides and Exeter.

What is the rule with the seventh french side? It's that the group with two french sides has the lowest ranked French team in it or something? I can only vaguely remember the mechanics of this.

But hooray for Cardiff being out of the top tier and Biarritz out of the tournament because that really did give last years draw a very lop-sided look.

Notch wrote:

What is the rule with the seventh french side? It's that the group with two french sides has the lowest ranked French team in it or something? I can only vaguely remember the mechanics of this.

Racing have to be in the group with 2 x French teams as the lowest ranking French team.

Just need the Chiefs to do the business against Glaws this weekend - excited!!

The more I look at it, the curiouser and curiouser the HEC ranings process looks.

Discounting the inter-league arguments about apportioning qualifying sides, the rationale is that qualifying sides are determined by this year's domestic tables yet the HEC unscrambles that key logic by

Following the signing of the 2007 Accord, the Board of ERC directed a Working Party, made up of representatives of Clubs, Unions and the ERC Executive, to develop a merit-based ranking system to reward consistent European performance.

i.e. immediately sticking in its size tens by queering the pitch by doing its bit to randomise the tiers by applying an arcane protocol that gives performances up to three years ago equal weight with the very discipline required to gain entry. Its odd when you think of it.

Just as an example, those are the rules which pooled ASM and Leinster (probably the best teams in Europe according to Eurotable) into the same tier thereby denying the competition of one of the best teams a knockout entry.

Odd.
All very odd.

At least with Clermont in Tier 1 we won't have to play them again in the pool phase next year. Not nice for English.Scots/Welsh team for Tier 1 to be made upo of three French and three Irish teams.

Nice draw for Leinster would be Perpignan, Edinburgh and Zebre, sh1te draw would be Leicester, Ospreys and Castres or Racing Metro.

brennomac wrote:At least with Clermont in Tier 1 we won't have to play them again in the pool phase next year. Not nice for English.Scots/Welsh team for Tier 1 to be made upo of three French and three Irish teams.

Nice draw for Leinster would be Perpignan, Edinburgh and Zebre, sh1te draw would be Leicester, Ospreys and Castres or Racing Metro.

2 of those are impossible.

You need an English and a French team in each group. And Racing have to be in a group with another French team.

Of the possible ones Saracens Montpelier and Racing would not be great.

Perpignan Embra and Gloucester would be OK

But Cardiff Montpelier and Gloucester would be fine too.

Bear in mind that this holds true for Munster and Ulster also.

For me a 'dream' draw would be
Toulouse
Leicester
Edinburgh
Zebre

But that only represents another foly inherent in the current system (see https://www.606v2.com/t43298-zebre-a-worthy-heineken-cup-contender-including-all-party-face-saving-compromise