Australian take on Welsh dominance of Lions

by madmaccas Wed May 01, 2013 12:59 pm

First topic message reminder :

There's an interesting article on Australian sports site TheRoar about the Welsh dominance of the Lions.

HERE

Spiro makes a good point regarding Sam Warburton's comment yesterday about leading the Lions:

“I’ve got a strong Welsh contingent of leaders I can rely on,”

Bit of a kick in the teeth to POC and BOD. Does this signify that there'll be a Welsh clique? Certainly doesn't bode well for tour unity imo.

by thebluesmancometh Wed May 01, 2013 9:36 pm

[quote="TJ"]

Risca Rev wrote:
TJ wrote:
thebluesmancometh wrote:

Another bitter nasty and childish welsh fan spoiling the boards.

Pretty unnecessary don't you think?

His post or mine? the continual bitter and nasty postings like his spoils these boards and IMO needs to be challenged. Why it is deemed necessary to behave like this by a section of the welsh support I do not know but there are multiple examples

YTouve quoted me as saying your phrase mate, please highlight where I was bitter or nasty!!

by Guest Wed May 01, 2013 9:38 pm

Yours yeah. You're the one who went on a bit of a personal attack. There's a problem with the quoting for some reason.

Just a question, how do you know these people are Welsh/aren't one poster with multiple ids?

by flyhalffactory Wed May 01, 2013 9:39 pm

thebluesmancometh wrote:
TJ wrote:
thebluesmancometh wrote:
flyhalffactory wrote:
offload wrote:The Aussie press hasn't got going yet - it is likely to be brutal. There again perhaps it needs to be. The Lions have only lost one series in Australia and that was to arguably the best Aussie team ever, and it was mighty close.

So...they won't admit it but the Aussies are worried that the Lions will return to business as usual and win. If the so called "overrated" Wales can run them very very close in three tests what will the combined strength of the home nations achieve. Yes - the Aussies are nervous, we have a very strong squad with some exceptional young talent and a few old heads. We should be optimistic of a 3-nil series.

Wales certainly did run Australia close and pretty much could have won the series 3-0, but look at the bigger picture..... most of the Welsh Lions boarding the plane lost to a decimated Australian squad 21 players injured or unavailable and regarded as possibly the worst Oz side in living history and not once but three times on the bounce. Now the bulk of the Lions are this year going to face the same SH nation but this time they will be a much different proposition.

Nice one Gatland........... Shaun Edwards must be quietly relieved to be at home drinking his Horlicks and smiling to himself

Ye because Wales didn't have any injuries, and this decimated Aus squad, how come they managed to rest 11 players v Scotland the weak before? Can they live without 32 first team players? Oh wait they didn't have 21 first team injuries, they had double firgure first team players playing!!

Never let the facts get in the way of your view fly

Not this nonsese again. 11 players were not rested for Scotland - two different teams were picked from the squad

Another bitter nasty and childish welsh fan spoiling the boards.

Thats a bit harsh, purely because I nullified a 21 injury argument by using a fact that Deans admitted to himself, that he wanted certain players rested for Wales, no credit taken away from the Scots, they did well against that team in poor conditions, and the tactics of player selection and and positioning were spot on.

You nullified the argument!!............ are you away with the fairies?....... its a fact that 21 players made themselves unavailable LAST SUMMER, why are you talking about when we played them? that was a different time period!!!. So where is your nullification of the analysis?

Well Dean might have admitted to you and maybe to himself but he certainly didn't to the press, it was clearly injuries fatigue and unavailability that 21 players in all but the last test were not available. Of course he was so worried about resting players that he actually asked Pocock to play even tho he was carrying injuries Shocked

by ChequeredJersey Wed May 01, 2013 9:45 pm

Calm down guys, please, no need to say anybody is spoiling the boards, retaliatory snapping isn't exactly improving the board for 3rd parties either you know

by wolfball Wed May 01, 2013 9:51 pm

[quote="TJ"]

Risca Rev wrote:
TJ wrote:
thebluesmancometh wrote:

Another bitter nasty and childish welsh fan spoiling the boards.

Pretty unnecessary don't you think?

His post or mine? the continual bitter and nasty postings like his spoils these boards and IMO needs to be challenged. Why it is deemed necessary to behave like this by a section of the welsh support I do not know but there are multiple examples

Agreed, but from my point of view, the sense I get from other posters on the Lions is not anti the welsh players, it really is more like anti-Gatland (A New Zealander I understand? Wink

) . The idea is that the selection was pretty close to what most people wanted, except for some of the seriously mad Gatland calls. But moreso, the squad when looked over looks exactly like one would pick if you wanted to play bishbosh rugby ie the recent Welsh brand of rugby. The issue is not with Wales' players, its with the fact that the game Wales plays is efficient and effective against some sides (the 6Nations sides) but not good enough to beat Aus in the recent past. My Lions team would probably have 7-8 Welsh starting but I would be picking the Welsh that can play a game of power AND guile. Gatland, from all evidence, is looking to do something that we Irish have criticized Kidney for over and over... Playing a failed gameplan and expecting a different result. I really have seen little evidence of anti-welsh bias here, outside of criticisms of Gatland's gameplan and inconsistency in his form versus class comments, though I have seen plenty of poor welsh petals whine about a hint of criticism from other posters. Take it on the chin lads.

by Alex_Germany Thu May 02, 2013 12:16 am

Taffineastbourne wrote:Are people calling for the Welsh players not to have been selected or am I missing their point?Is jealousy rearing it's head?Clearly the last two 6n's have been a travesty and we won all those games by default.Gatland and co were numpties for being swayed by these worthless results.Pretty sad reaction from bitter people who have no grasp of the lions ethos.

Wales have produced one stand out performance in the last 12 months. It's a bit like picking an all England team because they thumped the All Blacks. There should be more consistent performers from the Heineken Cup, as well as the Rabo and Premiership (and the French league would be nice as well).

by Icu Thu May 02, 2013 12:34 am

Griff wrote:Teams for the 20-19 Aus win. I wouldn't call that the worst Aussie side in living memory. And I didn't cherry pick that, it was the first hot in google.

Australia: Kurtley Beale (Melbourne Rebels); Adam Ashley-Cooper (NSW), Rob Horne (NSW), Pat McCabe (ACT), Digby Ioane (Queensland); Berrick Barnes (NSW), Will Genia (Queensland); Benn Robinson (NSW), Tatafu Polota-Nau (NSW), Sekope Kepu (NSW), Sitaleki Timani (NSW), Nathan Sharpe (Western Force), Scott Higginbotham (Queensland), David Pocock (Western Force, capt), Wycliff Palu (NSW).

From this team I would expect 7 possibly 8 players to start against the Lions. This was one of the weaker Wallaby sides to play in the past several years.

Personally, the more Welsh players in the run on side the less worried I am about losing. No disrespect to the Welsh players but from what they have shown they don't seem to have toughness to close out tight games.

by Hound of Harrow Thu May 02, 2013 1:21 am

Icu - the Aussie rugby press are already saying as much.

I expect the Lions to win the scrum battle - and Gatland has picked more mobile front rowers - without needing to resort to the Sheridan power style. The guys in the squad are very good in the loose, at the breakdown (if we can stop Stevens giving away penalties Wink

), and they will make yards and sap the Wallabies' fitness.

The line out will be keenly contested, and I am delighted that O'Connell seems to be back and firing. A key man for us.

The Lions' back row, whoever is picked, have an edge too imo.

My only concern is what looks to be a bunch of backs who will look to truck it up mostly. I would like to see BOD at 12 and either Davies or Tuilagi at 13. However, I think we are likely to see Roberts and BOD.

I would really like to see Maitland given a shot on the wing with a better distributor at centre than Sean Lamont.

Aussie have the talent in the backs, and are adept at working phases to eventually get a mismatch of backs v forwards. We will have to watch that.

Smile

by Guest Thu May 02, 2013 8:44 am

Icu wrote:
Griff wrote:Teams for the 20-19 Aus win. I wouldn't call that the worst Aussie side in living memory. And I didn't cherry pick that, it was the first hot in google.

Australia: Kurtley Beale (Melbourne Rebels); Adam Ashley-Cooper (NSW), Rob Horne (NSW), Pat McCabe (ACT), Digby Ioane (Queensland); Berrick Barnes (NSW), Will Genia (Queensland); Benn Robinson (NSW), Tatafu Polota-Nau (NSW), Sekope Kepu (NSW), Sitaleki Timani (NSW), Nathan Sharpe (Western Force), Scott Higginbotham (Queensland), David Pocock (Western Force, capt), Wycliff Palu (NSW).

From this team I would expect 7 possibly 8 players to start against the Lions. This was one of the weaker Wallaby sides to play in the past several years.

Personally, the more Welsh players in the run on side the less worried I am about losing. No disrespect to the Welsh players but from what they have shown they don't seem to have toughness to close out tight games.

You could say that about ALL the B&I teams. Apart from England's 1 outstanding performance against NZ ,they have not had the mental toughness twice against Wales recently - at team who couldn't put the Aussies away. Ireland did not have the mental toughness to edge out England this year at home. The were also ahead against South Africa and let it slip away. Scotland did not have it against Wales at home this year. In front a few times I think but didn't have the toughness to see it through - again, against a team that cannot beat the Aussies. The didn't manage to see off Tonga either. Ireland didn't have it against Scotland this year, and they let it slip away against Wales last year at home. I mean, how do you define this toughness to close out a game, and when is a loss just a loss? Because we've ALL let games slip away in recent times.

I'm not denying that Wales are in this bracket too, as clearly the results show that we are, but we're hardly on own out there. And that was against a top 3 side. England, Scotland, Ireland and Wales have also failed to have the toughness to edge out each other - which is worrying because individually we're lesser opposition than the top 3 nations (Wallabies included).

by Luckless Pedestrian Thu May 02, 2013 8:46 am

Well said, Hound. We could have dominance in both territory and possession but the Wallaby backs still have the ability (and the will) to conjure something from nothing.

Our defence will have to be spot on - and it's arguable that the best defensive coach we have will be at home watching the Tests on the telly.

by Luckless Pedestrian Thu May 02, 2013 9:11 am

Knowsit17 wrote:The statistic of Wales supplying the largest collection of players to the squad doesn't necessarily entail that the majority of starters will be Welsh.

I swear this has passed some people by entirely.

by Guest Thu May 02, 2013 9:16 am

Exactly; put in some of the Welsh boys who have competed so well against the Aussies recently and have scored a load of points against them, plus quality players from the other nations who have managed to beat them, and we have a very capable team.

by thebluesmancometh Thu May 02, 2013 9:19 am

flyhalffactory wrote:
thebluesmancometh wrote:
TJ wrote:
thebluesmancometh wrote:
flyhalffactory wrote:
offload wrote:The Aussie press hasn't got going yet - it is likely to be brutal. There again perhaps it needs to be. The Lions have only lost one series in Australia and that was to arguably the best Aussie team ever, and it was mighty close.

So...they won't admit it but the Aussies are worried that the Lions will return to business as usual and win. If the so called "overrated" Wales can run them very very close in three tests what will the combined strength of the home nations achieve. Yes - the Aussies are nervous, we have a very strong squad with some exceptional young talent and a few old heads. We should be optimistic of a 3-nil series.

Wales certainly did run Australia close and pretty much could have won the series 3-0, but look at the bigger picture..... most of the Welsh Lions boarding the plane lost to a decimated Australian squad 21 players injured or unavailable and regarded as possibly the worst Oz side in living history and not once but three times on the bounce. Now the bulk of the Lions are this year going to face the same SH nation but this time they will be a much different proposition.

Nice one Gatland........... Shaun Edwards must be quietly relieved to be at home drinking his Horlicks and smiling to himself

Ye because Wales didn't have any injuries, and this decimated Aus squad, how come they managed to rest 11 players v Scotland the weak before? Can they live without 32 first team players? Oh wait they didn't have 21 first team injuries, they had double firgure first team players playing!!

Never let the facts get in the way of your view fly

Not this nonsese again. 11 players were not rested for Scotland - two different teams were picked from the squad

Another bitter nasty and childish welsh fan spoiling the boards.

Thats a bit harsh, purely because I nullified a 21 injury argument by using a fact that Deans admitted to himself, that he wanted certain players rested for Wales, no credit taken away from the Scots, they did well against that team in poor conditions, and the tactics of player selection and and positioning were spot on.

You nullified the argument!!............ are you away with the fairies?....... its a fact that 21 players made themselves unavailable LAST SUMMER, why are you talking about when we played them? that was a different time period!!!. So where is your nullification of the analysis?

Well Dean might have admitted to you and maybe to himself but he certainly didn't to the press, it was clearly injuries fatigue and unavailability that 21 players in all but the last test were not available. Of course he was so worried about resting players that he actually asked Pocock to play even tho he was carrying injuries

There are 10 first team players on the pitch in that 15, and another 3 on the bench, so of Aus best possible 15 at least 12 played against Wales... So who were the other 18 first teamers???

Youve become a little excessive Fly, go and rewatch Deans interview before the monsoon game he clearly states Wales as the reason for resting 11 first team players for Scotland, and Pocock was returning from injury and needed gametime...

Like I said don't let the facts get in your way mate thumbsup

by Newsilure Thu May 02, 2013 9:27 am

Isn't all of this talk about how well each nation played against Australia irrelevant. Gatland's first job was to pick the best players in their position taking into account fast pitches, attitude as tourists, etc. His second job is to get those people to think as one team not as representatives of four different teams and all the evidence you hear from past Lionsis that the more they get to think of themselves as Lions, rather than English, Scots, Irish and Welsh the better they will do.

So Gatland picked what he thinks are the best players, there are a lot of Welsh ones but when you look at them as individuals nearly every one of them clearly deserves his place... not as a Welshman but as a player

by offload Thu May 02, 2013 9:43 am

Newsilure wrote:Isn't all of this talk about how well each nation played against Australia irrelevant. Gatland's first job was to pick the best players in their position taking into account fast pitches, attitude as tourists, etc. His second job is to get those people to think as one team not as representatives of four different teams and all the evidence you hear from past Lionsis that the more they get to think of themselves as Lions, rather than English, Scots, Irish and Welsh the better they will do.

So Gatland picked what he thinks are the best players, there are a lot of Welsh ones but when you look at them as individuals nearly every one of them clearly deserves his place... not as a Welshman but as a player

by RubyGuby Thu May 02, 2013 10:13 am

offload wrote:
Newsilure wrote:Isn't all of this talk about how well each nation played against Australia irrelevant. Gatland's first job was to pick the best players in their position taking into account fast pitches, attitude as tourists, etc. His second job is to get those people to think as one team not as representatives of four different teams and all the evidence you hear from past Lionsis that the more they get to think of themselves as Lions, rather than English, Scots, Irish and Welsh the better they will do.

So Gatland picked what he thinks are the best players, there are a lot of Welsh ones but when you look at them as individuals nearly every one of them clearly deserves his place... not as a Welshman but as a player

by Bathman_in_London Thu May 02, 2013 10:21 am

Newsilure wrote:Isn't all of this talk about how well each nation played against Australia irrelevant. Gatland's first job was to pick the best players in their position taking into account fast pitches, attitude as tourists, etc. His second job is to get those people to think as one team not as representatives of four different teams and all the evidence you hear from past Lionsis that the more they get to think of themselves as Lions, rather than English, Scots, Irish and Welsh the better they will do.

So Gatland picked what he thinks are the best players, there are a lot of Welsh ones but when you look at them as individuals nearly every one of them clearly deserves his place... not as a Welshman but as a player

I agree in that its irrelevant who has played well against Oz.

My personal opinion is that Gatland has picked several players who aren't in the best of form but instead are ones who Gatland believes can do the job for him to win the series. This clearly leads to some fan dissent and I don't think its based on nationality (or certainly it doesn't matter to me). For example, I would have put Brown, Jones and Robshaw all ahead of Lydiate at 6, based on this season or I would have put Zebo ahead of Bowe for example.

But Gatland has a plan to get in and win a series so I can see why he would pick players who he knows and trusts and can perform a specific job for him.

by dragonbreath Thu May 02, 2013 11:29 am

Knowsit17 wrote:
ChequeredJersey wrote:
Knowsit17 wrote:
ChequeredJersey wrote:
Risca Rev wrote:
Griff wrote:
fa0019 wrote:In some ways I think he has a point.... Wales are a better side at the moment then England... but I always feel England are better equipped to play and compete with AUS... and results tend to support this. England & Ireland are sides which can cause AUS problems, AUS always looks comfortable and in control with Wales.

I don't want to post because people with shout 'moral victories', but I can't help myself! If memory serves 3 of the last 5 encounters with Aus, Wales were leading in the last few minutes and then either gave away penalties or a length of the field try. Not sure I'd call that comfortable and in control by Aus.

All people care about on here, is stats. Nobody cares about the finer details like you mention. Isn't it far easier to spout off the same rubbish like Wales' bosh tactics don't work, or 8 on the spin?

Losing 1 match in such a way is unlucky, twice is coincidental but when you see that no matter how close Wales could have been to winning they still haven't done so against a Tri-Nations opponent since the Aus game 2008, that implies it isn't just luck or happenstance

It's a good point but at least some of it could be put down to a lack of bottle from Wales in the closing minutes and an inability to close out tight games against SH opposition. Like in the second summer test when Wales were in a commanding position and made a meal of possession at the death. Same with the autumn test. There's nothing to say Aus anticipated every bit of it, expected to find themselves trailing and knew exactly how to respond. Not trying to make Wales out to be bigger than we really are but I've seen more than one recent defeat to SH opposition which was more down to Welsh errors than opposition superiority.

But then if the majority of players starting for the Lions and the captain who leads them are the same as those who made these match-losing errors, playing under the same manager in the same style with the same lack of bottle and composure, why should I feel confident of a Lions victory? It just makes me feel we are more likely to lose from a winning position, just like T2 2009. Unless the leadership and composure from the non-Welsh players is really significant, the situation hasn't changed, there's even more pressure on players in a Lions shirt than a National one, especially as the Lions haven't won a series since 1997 and if you add in other factors like a mental block against the opposition I can't help but feel we will underperform

If all the circumstances you outline at the start were applicable (and some of them are) then you may well be right. But there are several factors that might be different. For one thing the statistic of Wales supplying the largest collection of players to the squad doesn't necessarily entail that the majority of starters will be Welsh. Statistically Wales are now more probable than the others to contribute the majority of starters but even if they did, would that be enough to set the tone to a Welsh game plan and approach? There are non-Welsh players in that squad who are experienced or consistent enough to play to their own strengths and who would add something to almost any side. I'm gutted for players like Robshaw and Best who imo would definitely have added something in their respective positions and whose omission was something of a slap in the face given their form. But I'm confident in the abilities of POC and BOD who will add composure to the forwards and backs respectively if picked. I'm confident in players like Gray, Tuilagi and SOB who I find are consistently quite good for their countries. I wouldn't try to change these guys' strengths and I doubt the coaching staff will be foolish enough to try either.

I've seen some perfectly coherent suggestions for starting XVs which only featured 3 or 4 Welsh starters. Realistically even if it was as high as 7 or 8 I don't see how that establishes that the rest of the team will automatically take on the Welsh mindframe of recent years. And playing at a different stage with different teammates might effectively settle any Welsh nerves (if there are any present).

Gatland is a coach who knows how to work with the strengths of what he's got in Wales but when he's got other options who can vary their approach and who offer something he doesn't usually have at his disposal I don't think he'll look to impose a strict model of the Welsh strategy on the Lions or at least I seriously hope he won't.

It is not a Welsh Strategy, It is a Gatland Strategy and one he has used with minor tweaks in every job he has ever had. He will not despite what he says, reinvent the wheel in 6 weeks to accommodate players. He will tell everyone the way it is and pick those best suited to execute regardless of nationality.

by BlueNote Thu May 02, 2013 11:58 am

"It is not a Welsh Strategy, It is a Gatland Strategy and one he has used with minor tweaks in every job he has ever had. He will not despite what he says, reinvent the wheel in 6 weeks to accommodate players. He will tell everyone the way it is and pick those best suited to execute regardless of nationality."

I think that hits the nail on the head. He's gone with a lot of Welsh players because he is probably more confident that they will deliver what he wants, rather than because they are necessarily objectively the best or 2nd best or whatever in their position (although many of them are).

I don't understand why, for the sake of the Lions being representative of all if nothing else, we don't have any Scottish back-rowers (I am not saying they'd only get in on that basis, but it should have tipped things if it was a close decision). And they should have taken Laidlaw. Scottish scrum-halves seem to thrive with the Lions.

by ChequeredJersey Thu May 02, 2013 2:14 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
Knowsit17 wrote:The statistic of Wales supplying the largest collection of players to the squad doesn't necessarily entail that the majority of starters will be Welsh.

I swear this has passed some people by entirely.

No, but I still suspect at least 10 out of 15 starters will be Welsh (even higher proportion than the touring squad) and am happy to eat my words if I am proven wrong. If the problem is with Gatland's ideas of effective tactics and selection to best suit this set of tactics then, yes, the issue should be with his appointment not the players he has chosen. But the selection has confirmed to me the way he is going to try and play and it is not the right way to beat Australia

by dragonbreath Thu May 02, 2013 2:30 pm

ChequeredJersey wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
Knowsit17 wrote:The statistic of Wales supplying the largest collection of players to the squad doesn't necessarily entail that the majority of starters will be Welsh.

I swear this has passed some people by entirely.

No, but I still suspect at least 10 out of 15 starters will be Welsh (even higher proportion than the touring squad) and am happy to eat my words if I am proven wrong. If the problem is with Gatland's ideas of effective tactics and selection to best suit this set of tactics then, yes, the issue should be with his appointment not the players he has chosen. But the selection has confirmed to me the way he is going to try and play and it is not the right way to beat Australia

Well the right way to beat Aus is to be NZ. We have a NZ coach and a number of NZ born players, what more do you want

by dragonbreath Thu May 02, 2013 2:37 pm

Hound of Harrow wrote:Icu - the Aussie rugby press are already saying as much.

I expect the Lions to win the scrum battle - and Gatland has picked more mobile front rowers - without needing to resort to the Sheridan power style. The guys in the squad are very good in the loose, at the breakdown (if we can stop Stevens giving away penalties ), and they will make yards and sap the Wallabies' fitness.

The line out will be keenly contested, and I am delighted that O'Connell seems to be back and firing. A key man for us.

The Lions' back row, whoever is picked, have an edge too imo.

My only concern is what looks to be a bunch of backs who will look to truck it up mostly. I would like to see BOD at 12 and either Davies or Tuilagi at 13. However, I think we are likely to see Roberts and BOD.

I would really like to see Maitland given a shot on the wing with a better distributor at centre than Sean Lamont.

Aussie have the talent in the backs, and are adept at working phases to eventually get a mismatch of backs v forwards. We will have to watch that.

And the options are Roberts, JD, and Tuillagi. Do you see the flaw in your plan?

by Guest Thu May 02, 2013 2:42 pm

So - too many Welsh - but in another year it might be too many English, or Irish, or Scots!

This is Aussie sports journalists having a go at the Lions selections - after an Aussie flop at the London Olympics last summer.

Whoever would have thought it!

by RubyGuby Thu May 02, 2013 2:45 pm

Who the feck do these people want: Marler; Wilson, Barritt, Brown, Ashton - I could go on - Robshaw and Best are the unlucky ones, maybe Ryan Jones and Ken Owens but I struggle to see better players other than these that he could have chosen. NO - 1 change I would have made would have been to take Nathan Hines insread of AWJ but lets give Gatland a chance:thumbsup:

by gregortree Thu May 02, 2013 2:48 pm

Ruby
wind in and take a chillax pill mon !
Its just the Aussie press up to the usual and unsubtle pre tour mind games.
Wait until we get down under ! now that will be fascinating for their Press.

by Luckless Pedestrian Thu May 02, 2013 2:55 pm

ChequeredJersey wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
Knowsit17 wrote:The statistic of Wales supplying the largest collection of players to the squad doesn't necessarily entail that the majority of starters will be Welsh.

I swear this has passed some people by entirely.

No, but I still suspect at least 10 out of 15 starters will be Welsh (even higher proportion than the touring squad) and am happy to eat my words if I am proven wrong. If the problem is with Gatland's ideas of effective tactics and selection to best suit this set of tactics then, yes, the issue should be with his appointment not the players he has chosen. But the selection has confirmed to me the way he is going to try and play and it is not the right way to beat Australia

At least 10? I'll be amazed if we see that.

by ChequeredJersey Thu May 02, 2013 4:49 pm

dragonbreath wrote:
ChequeredJersey wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
Knowsit17 wrote:The statistic of Wales supplying the largest collection of players to the squad doesn't necessarily entail that the majority of starters will be Welsh.

I swear this has passed some people by entirely.

No, but I still suspect at least 10 out of 15 starters will be Welsh (even higher proportion than the touring squad) and am happy to eat my words if I am proven wrong. If the problem is with Gatland's ideas of effective tactics and selection to best suit this set of tactics then, yes, the issue should be with his appointment not the players he has chosen. But the selection has confirmed to me the way he is going to try and play and it is not the right way to beat Australia

Well the right way to beat Aus is to be NZ. We have a NZ coach and a number of NZ born players, what more do you want

Only 2. We need more Kiwis

by ChequeredJersey Thu May 02, 2013 4:50 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
ChequeredJersey wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
Knowsit17 wrote:The statistic of Wales supplying the largest collection of players to the squad doesn't necessarily entail that the majority of starters will be Welsh.

I swear this has passed some people by entirely.

No, but I still suspect at least 10 out of 15 starters will be Welsh (even higher proportion than the touring squad) and am happy to eat my words if I am proven wrong. If the problem is with Gatland's ideas of effective tactics and selection to best suit this set of tactics then, yes, the issue should be with his appointment not the players he has chosen. But the selection has confirmed to me the way he is going to try and play and it is not the right way to beat Australia

At least 10? I'll be amazed if we see that.

We'll see

by sickofwendy Thu May 02, 2013 5:42 pm

History shows that the dominant home union usually provides the core of a side.This year shouldn't be any different,I expect to see around 8 or 9 starters from Wales and rightly so.

by Gretgael1 Thu May 02, 2013 5:57 pm

sickofwendy wrote:History shows that the dominant home union usually provides the core of a side.This year shouldn't be any different,I expect to see around 8 or 9 starters from Wales and rightly so.

Not always the case. In 2009 Ireland were grand slam winners, yet in the first test in South Africa, Wales had more players than Ireland starting.

by sickofwendy Thu May 02, 2013 6:01 pm

The 3rd test was a dead rubber thanks to ROG Cry

by Gretgael1 Thu May 02, 2013 7:50 pm

sickofwendy wrote:The 3rd test was a dead rubber thanks to ROG

Yep, all rog's fault. I blame him the the poor selection in the first test as well. Very Happy

by Scarpia Thu May 02, 2013 8:43 pm

If we are going to select a Lions team based on results against Australia, then selection is obvious. There is a team that has a 100% win record against Australia:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/my_club/ospreys/6094366.stm

by Taffineastbourne Thu May 02, 2013 9:10 pm

Icu wrote:
Griff wrote:Teams for the 20-19 Aus win. I wouldn't call that the worst Aussie side in living memory. And I didn't cherry pick that, it was the first hot in google.

Australia: Kurtley Beale (Melbourne Rebels); Adam Ashley-Cooper (NSW), Rob Horne (NSW), Pat McCabe (ACT), Digby Ioane (Queensland); Berrick Barnes (NSW), Will Genia (Queensland); Benn Robinson (NSW), Tatafu Polota-Nau (NSW), Sekope Kepu (NSW), Sitaleki Timani (NSW), Nathan Sharpe (Western Force), Scott Higginbotham (Queensland), David Pocock (Western Force, capt), Wycliff Palu (NSW).

From this team I would expect 7 possibly 8 players to start against the Lions. This was one of the weaker Wallaby sides to play in the past several years.

Personally, the more Welsh players in the run on side the less worried I am about losing. No disrespect to the Welsh players but from what they have shown they don't seem to have toughness to close out tight games.

Two questions,Icu.Was the team that lost to Scotland stronger?If these Welsh players haven't the toughness,which players from the sides that they have been regularly beating would you pick?

by Hound of Harrow Fri May 03, 2013 12:53 am

dragonbreath wrote:
Hound of Harrow wrote:Icu - the Aussie rugby press are already saying as much.

I expect the Lions to win the scrum battle - and Gatland has picked more mobile front rowers - without needing to resort to the Sheridan power style. The guys in the squad are very good in the loose, at the breakdown (if we can stop Stevens giving away penalties ), and they will make yards and sap the Wallabies' fitness.

The line out will be keenly contested, and I am delighted that O'Connell seems to be back and firing. A key man for us.

The Lions' back row, whoever is picked, have an edge too imo.

My only concern is what looks to be a bunch of backs who will look to truck it up mostly. I would like to see BOD at 12 and either Davies or Tuilagi at 13. However, I think we are likely to see Roberts and BOD.

I would really like to see Maitland given a shot on the wing with a better distributor at centre than Sean Lamont.

Aussie have the talent in the backs, and are adept at working phases to eventually get a mismatch of backs v forwards. We will have to watch that.

And the options are Roberts, JD, and Tuillagi. Do you see the flaw in your plan?

Sorry, I'm a bit late coming back to this. Playing BOD at 12 will be the key in terms of creating space for the 13s. I see the Lions looking to switch the centres around anyway as the game dictates; hence the four selected.

Davies and Tuilagi can both pass, and step players, although some people will beg to differ. BOD will be the crucial component though, imo.

The Lions often bring out a different side to players than the preconceived ideas from certain quarters. We saw that with Roberts alongside BOD in 2009.

by Icu Fri May 03, 2013 5:29 am

Taffineastbourne wrote:
Icu wrote:
Griff wrote:Teams for the 20-19 Aus win. I wouldn't call that the worst Aussie side in living memory. And I didn't cherry pick that, it was the first hot in google.

Australia: Kurtley Beale (Melbourne Rebels); Adam Ashley-Cooper (NSW), Rob Horne (NSW), Pat McCabe (ACT), Digby Ioane (Queensland); Berrick Barnes (NSW), Will Genia (Queensland); Benn Robinson (NSW), Tatafu Polota-Nau (NSW), Sekope Kepu (NSW), Sitaleki Timani (NSW), Nathan Sharpe (Western Force), Scott Higginbotham (Queensland), David Pocock (Western Force, capt), Wycliff Palu (NSW).

From this team I would expect 7 possibly 8 players to start against the Lions. This was one of the weaker Wallaby sides to play in the past several years.

Personally, the more Welsh players in the run on side the less worried I am about losing. No disrespect to the Welsh players but from what they have shown they don't seem to have toughness to close out tight games.
Two questions,Icu.Was the team that lost to Scotland stronger?If these Welsh players haven't the toughness,which players from the sides that they have been regularly beating would you pick?

Taff, I am only basing my opinion over what I have seen over the past 18 months. Wales could have (and possibly should have) won 3 or more times against us in the past 12 months. I recognise Wales are the strongest NH team at present but to lose those tight games continually when they had them in the bag makes me question the temperament of the Welsh side. Perhaps they have matured recently, in which case my opinion is void. But at the moment the evidence is against them.

To answer your questions, the team that lost to Scotland was a weaker side but their forward pack impressed me greatly. I was a bit surprised only Gray was picked as I thought a couple of the others looked pretty sound. I have a limited knowledge of NH players and don't watch a great deal of the 6N.

by Taffineastbourne Fri May 03, 2013 10:38 am

Icu wrote:
Taffineastbourne wrote:
Icu wrote:
Griff wrote:Teams for the 20-19 Aus win. I wouldn't call that the worst Aussie side in living memory. And I didn't cherry pick that, it was the first hot in google.

Australia: Kurtley Beale (Melbourne Rebels); Adam Ashley-Cooper (NSW), Rob Horne (NSW), Pat McCabe (ACT), Digby Ioane (Queensland); Berrick Barnes (NSW), Will Genia (Queensland); Benn Robinson (NSW), Tatafu Polota-Nau (NSW), Sekope Kepu (NSW), Sitaleki Timani (NSW), Nathan Sharpe (Western Force), Scott Higginbotham (Queensland), David Pocock (Western Force, capt), Wycliff Palu (NSW).

From this team I would expect 7 possibly 8 players to start against the Lions. This was one of the weaker Wallaby sides to play in the past several years.

Personally, the more Welsh players in the run on side the less worried I am about losing. No disrespect to the Welsh players but from what they have shown they don't seem to have toughness to close out tight games.
Two questions,Icu.Was the team that lost to Scotland stronger?If these Welsh players haven't the toughness,which players from the sides that they have been regularly beating would you pick?

Taff, I am only basing my opinion over what I have seen over the past 18 months. Wales could have (and possibly should have) won 3 or more times against us in the past 12 months. I recognise Wales are the strongest NH team at present but to lose those tight games continually when they had them in the bag makes me question the temperament of the Welsh side. Perhaps they have matured recently, in which case my opinion is void. But at the moment the evidence is against them.

To answer your questions, the team that lost to Scotland was a weaker side but their forward pack impressed me greatly. I was a bit surprised only Gray was picked as I thought a couple of the others looked pretty sound. I have a limited knowledge of NH players and don't watch a great deal of the 6N.

Icu,thanks for that.
Aussies may not rate Welsh players which I find hard to believe but as I highlighted the International results over the last few years in the NH dictate that the majority of the squad are Welsh.How team development pans out once they are gathered,who knows?

by flyhalffactory Fri May 03, 2013 3:28 pm

Icu,
Just to clarify the situation the situation of Taffs comments here are the 4 Nations results v Australia since the last Lions 2009 tour

ENGLAND
L 17 Nov 2012 England 14-20 Australia
W 13 Nov 2010 England 35-18 Australia
W 19 Jun 2010 Australia 20-21 England
L 12 Jun 2010 Australia 27-17 England
L 07 Nov 2009 England 9-18 Australia

IRELAND
W 17 Sep 2011 Australia 6-15 Ireland
L 26 Jun 2010 Australia 22-15 Ireland
D 15 Nov 2009 Ireland 20-20 Australia

SCOTLAND
W 05 Jun 2012 Australia 6-9 Scotland
W 21 Nov 2009 Scotland 9-8 Australia

WALES
L 01 Dec 2012 Wales 12-14 Australia
L 23 Jun 2012 Australia 20-19 Wales
L 16 Jun 2012 Australia 25-23 Wales
L 09 Jun 2012 Australia 27-19 Wales
L 03 Dec 2011 Wales 18-24 Australia
L 21 Oct 2011 Wales 18-21 Australia
L 06 Nov 2010 Wales 16-25 Australia
L 28 Nov 2009 Wales 12-33 Australia

So that's
Eng Won = 2. Lost = 3. Win % = 40%
Ire Won = 1. Lost = 1. Win % = 50%
Sco Won = 2. Lost = 0. Win % = 100%
Wal Won = 0. Lost = 7. Win % = 0%

Now we can look at all the SH results since the Lions 2009 tour

ENGLAND
W 01 Dec 2012 England 38-21 New Zealand
W 10 Nov 2012 England 54-12 Fiji
W 10 Sep 2011 Argentina 9-13 England
W 10 Sep 2011 Argentina 9-13 England
W 20 Nov 2010 England 26-13 Samoa
W 13 Nov 2010 England 35-18 Australia
W 19 Jun 2010 Australia 20-21 England
W 14 Nov 2009 England 16-9 Argentina
W 06 Jun 2009 England 37-15 Argentina
L 24 Nov 2012 England 15-16 South Africa
L 17 Nov 2012 England 14-20 Australia
L 16 Jun 2012 South Africa 36-27 England
L 09 Jun 2012 South Africa 22-17 England
L 27 Nov 2010 England 11-21 South Africa
L 06 Nov 2010 England 16-26 New Zealand
L 23 Jun 2010 New Zealand Maori 35-28 England
L 12 Jun 2010 Australia 27-17 England
L 21 Nov 2009 England 6-19 New Zealand
L 07 Nov 2009 England 9-18 Australia
L 13 Jun 2009 Argentina 24-22 England
Won = 9. Lost = 11.

IRELAND
W 24 Nov 2012 Ireland 46-24 Argentina
W 17 Sep 2011 Australia 6-15 Ireland
W 28 Nov 2010 Ireland 29-9 Argentina
W 13 Nov 2010 Ireland 20-10 Samoa
W 28 Nov 2009 Ireland 15-10 South Africa
W 21 Nov 2009 Ireland 41-6 Fiji
L 10 Nov 2012 Ireland 12-16 South Africa
L 23 Jun 2012 New Zealand 60-0 Ireland
L 16 Jun 2012 New Zealand 22-19 Ireland
L 09 Jun 2012 New Zealand 42-10 Ireland
L 20 Nov 2010 Ireland 18-38 New Zealand
L 06 Nov 2010 Ireland 21-23 South Africa
L 26 Jun 2010 Australia 22-15 Ireland
L 18 Jun 2010 New Zealand Maori 31-28 Ireland
L 12 Jun 2010 New Zealand 66-28 Ireland
Won = 6. Lost = 9.

SCOTLAND
W 23 Jun 2012 Samoa 16-17 Scotland
W 16 Jun 2012 Fiji 25-37 Scotland
W 05 Jun 2012 Australia 6-9 Scotland
W 27 Nov 2010 Scotland 19-16 Samoa
W 20 Nov 2010 Scotland 21-17 South Africa
W 19 Jun 2010 Argentina 9-13 Scotland
W 12 Jun 2010 Argentina 16-24 Scotland
W 21 Nov 2009 Scotland 9-8 Australia
W 14 Nov 2009 Scotland 23-10 Fiji
L 24 Nov 2012 Scotland 15-21 Tonga
L 17 Nov 2012 Scotland 10-21 South Africa
L 11 Nov 2012 Scotland 22-51 New Zealand
L 25 Sep 2011 Argentina 13-12 Scotland
L 13 Nov 2010 Scotland 3-49 New Zealand
L 28 Nov 2009 Scotland 6-9 Argentina

Won = 9. Lost = 6.

WALES
W 02 Oct 2011 Wales 66-0 Fiji
W 18 Sep 2011 Wales 17-10 Samoa
W 20 Aug 2011 Wales 28-13 Argentina
W 21 Nov 2009 Wales 33-16 Argentina
W 13 Nov 2009 Wales 17-13 Samoa
L 01 Dec 2012 Wales 12-14 Australia
L 24 Nov 2012 Wales 10-33 New Zealand
L 16 Nov 2012 Wales 19-26 Samoa
L 10 Nov 2012 Wales 12-26 Argentina
L 23 Jun 2012 Australia 20-19 Wales
L 16 Jun 2012 Australia 25-23 Wales
L 09 Jun 2012 Australia 27-19 Wales
L 03 Dec 2011 Wales 18-24 Australia
L 21 Oct 2011 Wales 18-21 Australia
L 11 Sep 2011 South Africa 17-16 Wales
L 27 Nov 2010 Wales 25-37 New Zealand
L 13 Nov 2010 Wales 25-29 South Africa
L 06 Nov 2010 Wales 16-25 Australia
L 26 Jun 2010 New Zealand 29-10 Wales
L 19 Jun 2010 New Zealand 42-9 Wales
L 05 Jun 2010 Wales 31-34 South Africa
L 28 Nov 2009 Wales 12-33 Australia
L 07 Nov 2009 Wales 12-19 New Zealand
Won = 5. Lost = 18.

So that's
Eng Won = 9. Lost = 11. Win % = 45%
Ire Won = 6. Lost = 9. Win % = 40%
Sco Won = 9. Lost = 6. Win % = 60%
Wal Won = 5. Lost = 18. Win % = 22%

Perhaps more relevant than wins in the NH 6Ns maybe, with regard to SH tour selection

by No 7&1/2 Fri May 03, 2013 3:39 pm

To be picky scrub off a win for England v France.

by flyhalffactory Fri May 03, 2013 3:47 pm

No 7&1/2 wrote:To be picky scrub off a win for England v France.

Cheers mate..... will do
Yes that was a rather time consuming and kinda pointless exercise but one that surprised me with the results

by Taffineastbourne Fri May 03, 2013 3:49 pm

flyhalffactory wrote:Icu,
Just to clarify the situation the situation of Taffs comments here are the 4 Nations results v Australia since the last Lions 2009 tour

ENGLAND
L 17 Nov 2012 England 14-20 Australia
W 13 Nov 2010 England 35-18 Australia
W 19 Jun 2010 Australia 20-21 England
L 12 Jun 2010 Australia 27-17 England
L 07 Nov 2009 England 9-18 Australia

IRELAND
W 17 Sep 2011 Australia 6-15 Ireland
L 26 Jun 2010 Australia 22-15 Ireland
D 15 Nov 2009 Ireland 20-20 Australia

SCOTLAND
W 05 Jun 2012 Australia 6-9 Scotland
W 21 Nov 2009 Scotland 9-8 Australia

WALES
L 01 Dec 2012 Wales 12-14 Australia
L 23 Jun 2012 Australia 20-19 Wales
L 16 Jun 2012 Australia 25-23 Wales
L 09 Jun 2012 Australia 27-19 Wales
L 03 Dec 2011 Wales 18-24 Australia
L 21 Oct 2011 Wales 18-21 Australia
L 06 Nov 2010 Wales 16-25 Australia
L 28 Nov 2009 Wales 12-33 Australia

So that's
Eng Won = 2. Lost = 3. Win % = 40%
Ire Won = 1. Lost = 1. Win % = 50%
Sco Won = 2. Lost = 0. Win % = 100%
Wal Won = 0. Lost = 7. Win % = 0%

Now we can look at all the SH results since the Lions 2009 tour

ENGLAND
W 01 Dec 2012 England 38-21 New Zealand
W 10 Nov 2012 England 54-12 Fiji
W 10 Sep 2011 Argentina 9-13 England
W 10 Sep 2011 Argentina 9-13 England
W 26 Feb 2011 England 17-9 France
W 20 Nov 2010 England 26-13 Samoa
W 13 Nov 2010 England 35-18 Australia
W 19 Jun 2010 Australia 20-21 England
W 14 Nov 2009 England 16-9 Argentina
W 06 Jun 2009 England 37-15 Argentina
L 24 Nov 2012 England 15-16 South Africa
L 17 Nov 2012 England 14-20 Australia
L 16 Jun 2012 South Africa 36-27 England
L 09 Jun 2012 South Africa 22-17 England
L 27 Nov 2010 England 11-21 South Africa
L 06 Nov 2010 England 16-26 New Zealand
L 23 Jun 2010 New Zealand Maori 35-28 England
L 12 Jun 2010 Australia 27-17 England
L 21 Nov 2009 England 6-19 New Zealand
L 07 Nov 2009 England 9-18 Australia
L 13 Jun 2009 Argentina 24-22 England
Won = 10. Lost = 11.

IRELAND
W 24 Nov 2012 Ireland 46-24 Argentina
W 17 Sep 2011 Australia 6-15 Ireland
W 28 Nov 2010 Ireland 29-9 Argentina
W 13 Nov 2010 Ireland 20-10 Samoa
W 28 Nov 2009 Ireland 15-10 South Africa
W 21 Nov 2009 Ireland 41-6 Fiji
L 10 Nov 2012 Ireland 12-16 South Africa
L 23 Jun 2012 New Zealand 60-0 Ireland
L 16 Jun 2012 New Zealand 22-19 Ireland
L 09 Jun 2012 New Zealand 42-10 Ireland
L 20 Nov 2010 Ireland 18-38 New Zealand
L 06 Nov 2010 Ireland 21-23 South Africa
L 26 Jun 2010 Australia 22-15 Ireland
L 18 Jun 2010 New Zealand Maori 31-28 Ireland
L 12 Jun 2010 New Zealand 66-28 Ireland
Won = 6. Lost = 9.

SCOTLAND
W 23 Jun 2012 Samoa 16-17 Scotland
W 16 Jun 2012 Fiji 25-37 Scotland
W 05 Jun 2012 Australia 6-9 Scotland
W 27 Nov 2010 Scotland 19-16 Samoa
W 20 Nov 2010 Scotland 21-17 South Africa
W 19 Jun 2010 Argentina 9-13 Scotland
W 12 Jun 2010 Argentina 16-24 Scotland
W 21 Nov 2009 Scotland 9-8 Australia
W 14 Nov 2009 Scotland 23-10 Fiji
L 24 Nov 2012 Scotland 15-21 Tonga
L 17 Nov 2012 Scotland 10-21 South Africa
L 11 Nov 2012 Scotland 22-51 New Zealand
L 25 Sep 2011 Argentina 13-12 Scotland
L 13 Nov 2010 Scotland 3-49 New Zealand
L 28 Nov 2009 Scotland 6-9 Argentina

Won = 9. Lost = 6.

WALES
W 02 Oct 2011 Wales 66-0 Fiji
W 18 Sep 2011 Wales 17-10 Samoa
W 20 Aug 2011 Wales 28-13 Argentina
W 21 Nov 2009 Wales 33-16 Argentina
W 13 Nov 2009 Wales 17-13 Samoa
L 01 Dec 2012 Wales 12-14 Australia
L 24 Nov 2012 Wales 10-33 New Zealand
L 16 Nov 2012 Wales 19-26 Samoa
L 10 Nov 2012 Wales 12-26 Argentina
L 23 Jun 2012 Australia 20-19 Wales
L 16 Jun 2012 Australia 25-23 Wales
L 09 Jun 2012 Australia 27-19 Wales
L 03 Dec 2011 Wales 18-24 Australia
L 21 Oct 2011 Wales 18-21 Australia
L 11 Sep 2011 South Africa 17-16 Wales
L 27 Nov 2010 Wales 25-37 New Zealand
L 13 Nov 2010 Wales 25-29 South Africa
L 06 Nov 2010 Wales 16-25 Australia
L 26 Jun 2010 New Zealand 29-10 Wales
L 19 Jun 2010 New Zealand 42-9 Wales
L 05 Jun 2010 Wales 31-34 South Africa
L 28 Nov 2009 Wales 12-33 Australia
L 07 Nov 2009 Wales 12-19 New Zealand
Won = 5. Lost = 18.

So that's
Eng Won = 10. Lost = 11. Win % = 48%
Ire Won = 6. Lost = 9. Win % = 40%
Sco Won = 9. Lost = 6. Win % = 60%
Wal Won = 5. Lost = 18. Win % = 22%

Perhaps more relevant than wins in the NH 6Ns maybe, with regard to SH tour selection

Worth factoring in the strength of the sides faced.As Icu pointed out Aus field a weaker side against weaker sides like Scotland.Damn that does not help you with your agenda.How many times have Scotland beaten Wales during this period?We are not so sporting and endeavour to pick our strongest side against your lot.
Stats can be very misleading when looked at in isolation can't they? laughing

by flyhalffactory Fri May 03, 2013 4:03 pm

Taff

Icu pointed out that the Oz put out a perceived weaker team and that was true by maybe 2 possibly 3 players and I can challenge him on that by looking at the current state of affairs down under, as more of the team that played Scotland are now the go to guys in Oz rugby

As an Economist I certainly know how stats in isolation can be misleading, and you are right look at the last 4-5 Wal v Sco games and see how far away the two teams were away from each other.

The thing about stats are the larger the amount of data then the more "accurate" it will prove to be. 100% loss record again Australia proves a lot and a 100% win record proves a lot.

You bang on about your selective internationals played on a wintery 6 week Feb/Mar and whilst slowly but surely the facts speak for themselves.

by Taffineastbourne Fri May 03, 2013 4:20 pm

I believe that Wales have beaten Scotland the last 6 times they have met.if Scotland had beaten Australia similarly I would be impressed beyond.
I felt that four Scots merited selection based on my level of awareness of the player pool available to WG.I was overly optimistic on this I grant you.I did not number crunch as I have no faith as to the validity of such an exercise.
Back in the day Gareth,JPR,et al were rightly lauded and no stats were bandied about in justification nor denial.
Most carries,most tackles,most yards,% ages tell a story but as evidenced by your good self they do not tell the whole story.
Which facts speak for themselves?I am not following you.

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