Federer watershed moment coming up.........

by barrystar Mon Jun 17, 2013 11:36 pm

Barring an unexpected (for me) win at Wimbledon, the next few weeks are going to see a big change for Federer watchers. He is set to defend 3,450 points between now and the beginning of the US Open (2,000 + 450 + 1,000), that is more points to defend in the next two months than he has earned in the 6 months this year to date. Unless his form improves a lot, he is set to move from #3 down to the frantic ranks of those trying to qualify for the WTF. This would be the first time he's been in such a place since 2002 - a very big change.

Many on this site have indicated that the real difference from last year is Fed's physical shape - as well as back issues he is not looking as fit as usual and his v. important footwork is suffering. It will be fascinating to see whether: (a) he can pull a mini-revival; or, (b) if he can't, whether his love of the game will sustain him happily in such unfamiliar surroundings - his current utterances suggest he expects to play for a good 2-3 years yet. For my part I suspect he's going to finish up somewhere between #5 and #8 after a none too stellar year (albeit more than decent for a 31-yr-old) and then I'd think he's got to want (or be able) to go back to the gym a la Tommy Haas if he's really going to enjoy 2014, because if he can't get back up he's going to find himself facing the top 3 in QF's more and more often, with the resulting adverse effect on his rankings, his seedings, and his prospects.

To my mind the thing that sets the 'big four' apart in terms of rankings is that they are habitual winners of Masters series tournaments and for them making slam SF's and better is the rule not the exception. Fed has not looked like a Masters winner anywhere this year, and he is looking like someone for whom a slam QF/SF is about as much as he can hope for. Wimbledon and Cincinnati are traditionally two of his best tournaments - they will be good bellwethers of where he is right now.

by Guest Tue Jun 18, 2013 12:38 am

Normally, at this point of the season I'd expect Fed to step it up and be a serial finalist/winner.

However this year really does feel different.

He finally looks really old out there. It's like, after years of gradual decline, he's aged a few years overnight. As if the miles have caught up with him.

His movement is so poor. Sluggish, late and for someone who's game was always built around fantastic movement and footwork, that's bad.

I expect it's more because, instead of pushing himself in his training blocks, he spent more time with family and extra-curricular activities.

He can still be a force but he needs to put the hard yards in. I think it may be too late in the day to remedy those issues for this year.

by sirfredperry Tue Jun 18, 2013 12:45 am

Yes, it will be interesting to see whether Fed is happy enough to be a ranked 5-8 player rather than a top four man.
Look at Hewitt, a former number one and GS winner, quite content to keep slogging away when well down the rankings. Not sure many ex numero unos would show that enthusiasm.

by **laverfan** Tue Jun 18, 2013 12:52 am

sirfredperry wrote:Yes, it will be interesting to see whether Fed is happy enough to be a ranked 5-8 player rather than a top four man.
Look at Hewitt, a former number one and GS winner, quite content to keep slogging away when well down the rankings. Not sure many ex numero unos would show that enthusiasm.

Moya retired @#512, IIRC.

by CaledonianCraig Tue Jun 18, 2013 12:59 am

It really depends on the individual and their motivations for playing the sport. We see the likes of Hewitt soldiering on despite slipping way down the rankings but still having the enthusiasm to compete and play the sport you love. Others may not wish to slip down the rankings into obscurity and play on when losing against players they used to beat easily. Roger is the only one that will decide to call it a day.

by barrystar Tue Jun 18, 2013 1:06 am

Moya and Hewitt are good examples, especially Hewitt given that he was #1 for a good old while. Agassi kept on going too, but you always felt he was trying to make up for a wasted time in his relative tennis youth.

Also, Fed may have to put up with being ranked a damn sight lower than #5-#8 pretty quickly if he carries on.

I'd like to be proven wrong, but for me Fed takes himself too seriously to turn up to a tournament and enjoy himself as one of the ranks in the way that Hewitt seems to be happy to do. My suspicion is that once his tennis stops him from being able to cash the cheques that I perceive that his ego wants to write I see him struggling to enjoy himself.

by CaledonianCraig Tue Jun 18, 2013 1:11 am

Yes barrystar I would agree with that assessment. Throughout his career Roger has always set high standards and you can tell it hurt whenever he lost. A more steady flow of such losses I cannot see him accepting readily. He has had a full career as well whereas part of what urges Hewitt to carry on (in my opinion) is that he lost a lot of his career to injury and during that time he missed tennis so much that he knows life without tennis is grim and is less keen to give it up if you see what I mean.

by ryan86 Tue Jun 18, 2013 1:17 am

Moya might have had a low ranking when he retired, but the circumstances were of someone who was injured in 2009 as a top 50 player (ranked 48), who a few months earlier had been top 20 and when he tried a comeback in 2010 it failed and gave it up by Madrid.

by whocares Tue Jun 18, 2013 2:15 am

someone mentionned on these boards that one of the reason that was keeping Federer playing was the sponsorhip money (long term contract with Nike). I sort of agree with the OP in a way that Federer has a lot to lose this year and I cant see him continuing if he falls outside the top 8. That said provided he gets a kind draw I can still see him capable of winning wimbledon (he certainly looked more at his ease than say murray in yesterday's games).

by TRuffin Tue Jun 18, 2013 2:43 am

whocares wrote:someone mentionned on these boards that one of the reason that was keeping Federer playing was the sponsorhip money (long term contract with Nike). I sort of agree with the OP in a way that Federer has a lot to lose this year and I cant see him continuing if he falls outside the top 8. That said provided he gets a kind draw I can still see him capable of winning wimbledon (he certainly looked more at his ease than say murray in yesterday's games).

Federer had tears in his eyes during the HAlle ceremony (a 250 event for goodness sakes) - he's not playing for sponsorship money.. If you have followed him closely you would know that all of his main endorsement deals are long term and will continue when he retires... Much like Palmer and Nicklaus for Rolex........... Jordan for Nike.... Fed's RF Nike line is set to continue far beyond his retirement..

He plays because he likes the game, the travel, the adulation. Of course, motivation to endure the pain and struggle of hard training has lessened over the years, and that's prob what we are seeing.. I saw it many times with great boxing champions when I worked for them in management.... Not only the training became harder, but the concentration during bouts....in Fed's case matches.......

I just can't see him falling below the top 8 as long as he maintains a semi full schedule.. Looks at the points needed to be 7,8.........Fed is well capable of earning those...

by lags72 Tue Jun 18, 2013 3:02 am

CaledonianCraig wrote:Yes barrystar I would agree with that assessment. Throughout his career Roger has always set high standards and you can tell it hurt whenever he lost. A more steady flow of such losses I cannot see him accepting readily. He has had a full career as well whereas part of what urges Hewitt to carry on (in my opinion) is that he lost a lot of his career to injury and during that time he missed tennis so much that he knows life without tennis is grim and is less keen to give it up if you see what I mean.

I too am on the same wavelength here, as regards both the exceptionally high standards that Federer has always set for himself, and his discomfort with any significant loss (which in his case could be defined as pretty much ANY loss in a Slam or Masters ...!!)

As regards comparisons with other players who seem happy to continue playing beyond what might be regarded as 'normal' tennis retirement age : I don't see too much relevance or similarity with Federer. Like CC says, I simply can't see Federer coming to terms with a constant series of early round exits, should that begin to happen. And certainly not in the the same way that, say, Hewitt does. Hewitt remains the youngest player to make it to Number One, and all credit & respect. However ..... his life at the top was of course way shorter than Federer's. I honestly can't remember the last time Hewitt made a Slam SF, and early and/or first week exits have become pretty much the accepted norm for him. Other than his arch enemies and those with some sort of agenda, I don't think this is something that many tennis aficionados would enjoy watching happen to Federer.

Agassi is often quoted as evidence of ability to compete at the top level, well into mid-thirties and in reasonably modern times ; but I always tend to see 'mileage on the clock' as much more of a benchmark than pure chronological age. The stats show that Andre finished up with a tally of 1144 tour matches and yet Federer himself is only around thirty or so matches short of that figure, even now.

The admirable Tommy Haas is another example : 821 matches to date, but this is almost three hundred fewer than Federer. Likewise Hewitt (806 played to date)

Perhaps the irony of Federer's comparatively injury-free career is that it has given him fewer opportunities (albeit they would have been unwelcome opportunities, admittedly) to allow his body to recharge and get some extended rest periods in the way that some of his older peers have. Only now is he starting to downscale his schedule : a pattern which I can see continuing ahead of a likely retirement within 18 months or so maximum.

by CaledonianCraig Tue Jun 18, 2013 3:10 am

lags72 wrote:
CaledonianCraig wrote:Yes barrystar I would agree with that assessment. Throughout his career Roger has always set high standards and you can tell it hurt whenever he lost. A more steady flow of such losses I cannot see him accepting readily. He has had a full career as well whereas part of what urges Hewitt to carry on (in my opinion) is that he lost a lot of his career to injury and during that time he missed tennis so much that he knows life without tennis is grim and is less keen to give it up if you see what I mean.

I too am on the same wavelength here, as regards both the exceptionally high standards that Federer has always set for himself, and his discomfort with any significant loss (which in his case could be defined as pretty much ANY loss in a Slam or Masters ...!!)

As regards comparisons with other players who seem happy to continue playing beyond what might be regarded as 'normal' tennis retirement age : I don't see too much relevance or similarity with Federer. Like CC says, I simply can't see Federer coming to terms with a constant series of early round exits, should that begin to happen. And certainly not in the the same way that, say, Hewitt does. Hewitt remains the youngest player to make it to Number One, and all credit & respect. However ..... his life at the top was of course way shorter than Federer's. I honestly can't remember the last time Hewitt made a Slam SF, and early and/or first week exits have become pretty much the accepted norm for him. Other than his arch enemies and those with some sort of agenda, I don't think this is something that many tennis aficionados would enjoy watching happen to Federer.

Agassi is often quoted as evidence of ability to compete at the top level, well into mid-thirties and in reasonably modern times ; but I always tend to see 'mileage on the clock' as much more of a benchmark than pure chronological age. The stats show that Andre finished up with a tally of 1144 tour matches and yet Federer himself is only around thirty or so matches short of that figure, even now.

The admirable Tommy Haas is another example : 821 matches to date, but this is almost three hundred fewer than Federer. Likewise Hewitt (806 played to date)

Perhaps the irony of Federer's comparatively injury-free career is that it has given him fewer opportunities (albeit they would have been unwelcome opportunities, admittedly) to allow his body to recharge and get some extended rest periods in the way that some of his older peers have. Only now is he starting to downscale his schedule : a pattern which I can see continuing ahead of a likely retirement within 18 months or so maximum.

Spot on lags and am sure have posted something elsewhere a while back.

Haas and Hewitt haven't done the miles on a tennis court that Roger has as they have had large slices of their career affected by injuries. Roger (apart from his mono) has had a continuous career and tennis has been relentless in his life. You could say he is akin to a punch-drunk boxer perhaps. One that has taken just past the limit of acceptable punishment to his body. His heart is probably most definitely still in tennis but his body is saying otherwise. Old age is a fact of life and comes to us all.

by lags72 Tue Jun 18, 2013 3:27 am

'Punch-drunk boxer' is a perfect analogy CC (although he should at least be able to enjoy his retirement years in a rather better physical condition than many boxers do ....)

And there is the added pressure of trying to stay at the top once you get there. Every budding boxer wants to be the guy who knocks out the World Champ (I remember Ali once recounting this as his ambition from the moment he heard a commentary of a Joe Louis fight on the radio)

Everyone who met Federer in any round of any tournament was out to get a win against him, and that win could have contributed to him losing the top spot. He had over three hundred weeks of that relentless pressure.

The time for a prolonged and much-deserved rest is not too far off, methinks ........

by barrystar Tue Jun 18, 2013 3:52 am

When Federer sweeps into a tournament he may no longer be the favourite, but he can still combine his status as an all-time great with being one of the fancied players and there's no doubt he enjoys that status. I can't really see him enjoying being treated as an elder statesman who is no longer thought of as having any chance of winning - yesterday's news in other words. It's a downgrading in status that I would expect to rankle and take its toll along with defeats by players who he knows are several rungs below him.

I think that the mileage point is very well made (it's one that Wilander made about Agassi about 10 years ago too). Fed is joining the ranks of the players who played a ridiculously high number of games (Agassi, Vilas, Lendl, Connors). In fact it's probably more exaggerated in his case when you look at his career profile - he's played more matches in slams than anyone else, about 350, and about 400 in Masters and WTF together - so he's not been racking up matches in small tournaments with weak fields like Connors, Lendl, and Vilas were able to. He has also consistently got to the latter stages of tournaments, so a v. high proportion of his matches have been against top 50 players and better. His mileage is considerable.

by break_in_the_fifth Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:09 am

Maybe he could just play alternate years. Play one year, take the next one off to recover and play the following year.

by CaledonianCraig Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:12 am

break_in_the_fifth wrote:Maybe he could just play alternate years. Play one year, take the next one off to recover and play the following year.

Too late for that I would say. The mileage is already in his legs.

by break_in_the_fifth Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:13 am

A leg transplant then. There's got to be something.

by lydian Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:48 am

The mileage point isn't uniform though. One man's 1000 matches may be another's 500. One man's 1 litre petrol engine may compare poorly against another's 3 litre diesel. Federer strikes me more as a diesel that just keeps going despite 200,000 miles on the clock. People are talking like Federer is washed up now...and in a way this is a win:win situation for a Federer fan. If he wins big then he's a genius amongst a sea of modern drivel, if loses then its mileage and lost the ambition as to be expected. Yes he does look older but how much of this accelerated ageing/form issue is self-inflicted due to him pulling his foot off the conditioning gas? But then we hear well his back is knackered, he can't make it down the gym anymore. Sorry, if this guy wants to compete at the top then he has to train accordingly...this will slow his ageing process down. Otherwise, Haas would have long been washed up by now, even with 95,000 miles on the comparative clock.

Yes the next 3 months are watershed in revealing his true ambition to do what it takes to be at the top of the game (top 4). I suspect he's dreaming of time with the kids more and more these days and relying on innate talent to see him through as long as it can, don't think his heart is in pounding the weights, shakes and treadmill.

by JubbaIsle Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:02 am

Federer is no fool, he knows he has to leave the best of him for the slams and quite frankly, has been here before, bad days at the Masters etc, then storms through the big events. Only difference is his physique levels.

I'm wary of Roger, he's in an enviable position of having most people write him off at SW19, so the pressures off and he'll just let the over dogs bite themselves to death and come in to pick the bones. He may well play with gay abandon and produce some stunning results and get to the semis' to shine and play out of his skin, such is the beast within him.

To me his only downfall will be the precipice of confidence, one game may put it to the sword and he could plunge over in as much time as it takes to lose a couple of service games. He is on a knife edge with regard to his intensity, one slip and the airs gone, the balloon deflates and its game over.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him lose in the 3rd or 4th round. Its such a thin line he treads right now.

I wouldn't be surprised if he plays in the final either.

by bogbrush Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:10 am

I see Federer has way past it but seriously, when you look at some of the idiots in the top 8 there's no way he's going to struggle to make the WTF. Not even close.

by Guest Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:10 am

CaledonianCraig wrote:
break_in_the_fifth wrote:Maybe he could just play alternate years. Play one year, take the next one off to recover and play the following year.

Too late for that I would say. The mileage is already in his legs.

What if he used alternate legs for each season? That way each leg gets a rest every couple of years. chin

emancipator

by lydian Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:13 am

Lol, so you don't know really Jubba. None of us do - that's the beauty of it.

He's riding the fickle beast of talent on its own now. The problem is this fickle beast doesn't like being asked to deliver for 7 matches in a row without the underlying comfort blanket of conditioning.

BB, making WTF suits me fine Wink

by lags72 Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:19 am

Very good post Jubba Isle

lydian - I hear what you say re Haas. I have huge admiration for him. He been dealt some rough cards in his career, and has come out 'the other side'. Would be a stunning achievement to get back inside the top ten once again.

BUT ..... I firmly believe the psychological side also plays a major part and you might be a tad harsh in admonishing Federer for perhaps missing a few more gym days than he used to, and thereby drawing unfavourable comparisons with Haas.

Haas has 14 career titles and would no doubt love to add a couple more, and maybe even put in a serious Slam challenge or two, before finally calling it a day. Just how much harder is it to maintain that same level of motivation when you already have almost 80 titles - including more big ones than anyone else ....?? chin

by banbrotam Tue Jun 18, 2013 9:44 am

JubbaIsle wrote:Federer is no fool, he knows he has to leave the best of him for the slams and quite frankly, has been here before, bad days at the Masters etc, then storms through the big events. Only difference is his physique levels.

I'm wary of Roger, he's in an enviable position of having most people write him off at SW19, so the pressures off and he'll just let the over dogs bite themselves to death and come in to pick the bones. He may well play with gay abandon and produce some stunning results and get to the semis' to shine and play out of his skin, such is the beast within him.

To me his only downfall will be the precipice of confidence, one game may put it to the sword and he could plunge over in as much time as it takes to lose a couple of service games. He is on a knife edge with regard to his intensity, one slip and the airs gone, the balloon deflates and its game over.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him lose in the 3rd or 4th round. Its such a thin line he treads right now.

I wouldn't be surprised if he plays in the final either.

I half agree. But I think his undoing could be in the first four rounds, where the pressure will actualy on him as some of the yougner bucks and 'indian summer' merchants fancy a pop

If he gets to the quarters, having dropped no sets - then yes. I think all the QF opponents other than Nadal, already look half knackered, as their usual lack of fitness / mental dexterity kick in

I basically, make him 4th favouite, simply because I think he might have a few tussles in the early rounds but a final with Murray is my least favoured option for an Andy win

by lydian Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:00 am

lags72 wrote:you might be a tad harsh in admonishing Federer for perhaps missing a few more gym days than he used to, and thereby drawing unfavourable comparisons with Haas.

Perhaps lags but I'm countering this constant comment of Federer being slow, ageing, etc. It's not all age related and as stated before you simply don't lose innate speed until your late 30s if you keep your body in top condition. Too many other sports demonstrate this. Infact, when someone loses speed the first thing to look at is their conditioning not age. However, yes his miles in the tank may affect his motivation to work out like Tommy. But if he loses early in a slam what do we blame...simply that he's slower or out of form, or that his back isn't supported by the muscles he used to have, or his mind isn't strong anymore yet he still wins lots of matches...?

by banbrotam Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:19 am

I'm not certain of the fitneess issues

For me, he's simply now seen as fair game - with any player from 1 to 101 thinking he's vulnerable

9 years ago, there were only around 2 players who thought they could beat him - Henman and Nalbandian!!

by lydian Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:22 am

That's a different angle, in that tennis constantly moves forward. But not that many are beating him outside top 10 though...

by Henman Bill Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:27 am

Tim Henman started 2004 with a Rotterdam win against Federer that extend his lead in the head to head to 6-1 in favour of Tim! But then after that Federer caught up and "won" 7-6. Actually after Rotterdam 04 Tim never even won a set.

by banbrotam Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:32 am

lydian wrote:That's a different angle, in that tennis constantly moves forward. But not that many are beating him outside top 10 though...

True, but I wonder if that might change

Look. If you could say that all the Fab Four, would get to their quarters with no effort - then Roger becomes slight favourite, simply because then he switches to multi-Wimbledon champ mental mode, which could still be enough to see him through

by Henman Bill Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:34 am

This year Fed does look weaker, but I would still predict him to finish around 4 or 5. He is 5 in the race despite playing fewer tournaments than everyone below him and if anything he should do better in the second half of the year with tournaments that suit him like Wimbledon, Basle, Cincinatti, World Tour Finals, where he has historically done well.

by barrystar Tue Jun 18, 2013 7:18 pm

To be clear, I think Fed will almost certainly make the #5-#8 this year. If he carries on in his current shape at that ranking I don't believe he'd enjoy himself - he'd face too many QF exits vs. the top 3 and staying above #8 would start to be a grind, he certainly could not afford early exits before the QF's because he'd face a high proportion of QF's at which he'd expect to be beaten by #1-3 so he could not count on so many point hauls from the SF and beyond. He would also arrive at tournaments and find that he's no longer feted as a possible winner, but as yesterday's hero. As I've said, I don't see that sitting well with him.

The crunch, as Lydian says, is whether he's going to pull his finger out and do the work. The mileage point is relevant because the greater the mileage the more difficult mentally (and possibly physically - the truth is we don't know) to get back into the gym. The reason why this next two months is a watershed is because it looks pretty likely that starting with the USO he's going to start be drawn #5-#8 and he'll get a taste of facing the top 3 in QFs at slams and Masters - perhaps starting with the USO itself. At the moment his standard of fitness is almost certainly not good enough to win a slam - it might carry him through Cincinnati or Basel.

As a fan of his I'd like to see him keep the slam QF run going, get to the WTF, make SF at Wimbledon or USO, and try to pick up Basel and one of the fast HC Masters. That would be none too shabby a year. If he's got time and inclination to put in some serious work after Wimbledon he might rally a bit like 2010 or 2011, that would be grand. He has one pretty good continuity run which is seriously under threat this year, reaching a Slam Final every year since 2013.

by sirfredperry Tue Jun 18, 2013 7:52 pm

Rafa's return is, ironically, a help to an ageing Fed as it means even fewer of the big points are likely to go to anyone under the current top five.
Even reaching a semi in the GS is a rare feat from anyone outside the top five when all are playing.

by CaledonianCraig Tue Jun 18, 2013 8:11 pm

sirfredperry wrote:Rafa's return is, ironically, a help to an ageing Fed as it means even fewer of the big points are likely to go to anyone under the current top five.
Even reaching a semi in the GS is a rare feat from anyone outside the top five when all are playing.

However, Roger is now seemingly more susceptible to Quarter-Final defeats against players he used to beat readily ie Berdych (US Open 2012) and Tsonga (French Open 2013). Those sorts of defeats drains his points and feeds those in a position to track him down. If/when he drops out of the top four then quarter-final matches will become even tougher for him with match-ups then coming against the top four.

by sirfredperry Tue Jun 18, 2013 8:13 pm

C-Craig. Take your point. But Fed lost a quarter at SW19 to Berdych as far back as 2010 and was then beaten in the same round by JWT the next year.
It didn't stop him winning Wimbledon and getting to number one last year - although both feats now seem well beyond him.

by CaledonianCraig Tue Jun 18, 2013 8:20 pm

The point is those defeats are now becoming more frequent and backs up the increasing lack of consistency in his play. He pulled off the win at Wimbledon last year but was in better form than he is now and was a year younger.

by sirfredperry Tue Jun 18, 2013 8:38 pm

CC. I agree and am not expecting too much from Fed at Wimbledon this year. Mind you, saw a few clips from his recent Halle win and he looked as if he was in good form, especially as Youzhny in the final was playing some great stuff.
For me, either Rafa or Djoko will win Wimbledon, which would break the recent sequence of no one holding two of the Slam titles at once.
Reckon the year-end number one is between these two as well.

by CaledonianCraig Tue Jun 18, 2013 8:44 pm

Each of the top players have something going for them but equally they have their own question marks.

Federer - seven times champion but lacking consistency of old.

Djokovic - world no.1 and former Wimbledon champion but of late has had some surprising defeats.

Murray - comes in as one of the form players on grass but back injury and the looming spectre of Nadal are his doubts.

Nadal - in form and confident but there are those knees and the fact he hasn't won a slam off of clay for three years.

by bogbrush Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:01 pm

Whilst I can imagine Fed falling to #5 in principle, I find it difficult to contemplate him being below David Ferrer under any circumstances; that would probably indicate a fundamental flaw in the ranking system warranting a major re-think of the calculation.

Having said that, those suggesting a fall to #5 could herald further drops (outside of #8) because of quarter final defeats to big players are simply not paying attention to the utter dearth of tennis ability that resides outside the top 8. That zone is such a desert, inhabited only by pathetic talentless oafs without any mental strength that Federer can have a place in the top 8 until he's 50 if he's interested.

by bogbrush Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:02 pm

sirfredperry wrote:CC. I agree and am not expecting too much from Fed at Wimbledon this year. Mind you, saw a few clips from his recent Halle win and he looked as if he was in good form, especially as Youzhny in the final was playing some great stuff.
For me, either Rafa or Djoko will win Wimbledon, which would break the recent sequence of no one holding two of the Slam titles at once.
Reckon the year-end number one is between these two as well.

Wasn't it a fun match? At least the highlights looked so.

God, why can't we have Wimbledon playing like that?

by bogbrush Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:22 pm

I was checking the rankings to verify my comment above and was suitably reassured.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/Singles.aspx

However, I was far more disturbed by the picture of Nadal on the left. Exactly when was that taken? Not only is his face not contorted mid-shot in it's usual twisted parody of humanity but the facial expression combined with overall "look" appears .... well frankly there's no getting around this........ like it's lifted from a magazine more used to featuring interviews with Dale Winton and Graham Norton, with fashion features by Gok Wan.

Is this part of a diversity drive by the ATP, or just Rafa looking to expand his demographics?

by Henman Bill Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:24 pm

bogbrush wrote:Whilst I can imagine Fed falling to #5 in principle, I find it difficult to contemplate him being below David Ferrer under any circumstances; that would probably indicate a fundamental flaw in the ranking system warranting a major re-think of the calculation.

Having said that, those suggesting a fall to #5 could herald further drops (outside of #8) because of quarter final defeats to big players are simply not paying attention to the utter dearth of tennis ability that resides outside the top 8. That zone is such a desert, inhabited only by pathetic talentless oafs without any mental strength that Federer can have a place in the top 8 until he's 50 if he's interested.

That is extremely harsh.

by Henman Bill Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:25 pm

bogbrush wrote:I was checking the rankings to verify my comment above and was suitably reassured.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/Singles.aspx

However, I was far more disturbed by the picture of Nadal on the left. Exactly when was that taken? Not only is his face not contorted mid-shot in it's usual twisted parody of humanity but the facial expression combined with overall "look" appears .... well frankly there's no getting around this........ like it's lifted from a magazine more used to featuring interviews with Dale Winton and Graham Norton, with fashion features by Gok Wan.

Is this part of a diversity drive by the ATP, or just Rafa looking to expand his demographics?

Ah, so that's your secret fantasy. This explain a lot.

by bogbrush Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:26 pm

Henman Bill wrote:
bogbrush wrote:Whilst I can imagine Fed falling to #5 in principle, I find it difficult to contemplate him being below David Ferrer under any circumstances; that would probably indicate a fundamental flaw in the ranking system warranting a major re-think of the calculation.

Having said that, those suggesting a fall to #5 could herald further drops (outside of #8) because of quarter final defeats to big players are simply not paying attention to the utter dearth of tennis ability that resides outside the top 8. That zone is such a desert, inhabited only by pathetic talentless oafs without any mental strength that Federer can have a place in the top 8 until he's 50 if he's interested.

That is extremely harsh.

You are a gentler soul than I, but wise enough not to dispute the accuracy of the statement.

by Henman Bill Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:27 pm

I hereby dispute the statement.

Actually, I don't even see said picture of Nadal. Are you sure it's not just all in your head?

hehe

by Henman Bill Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:28 pm

Anyway, maybe Rafa conquered that demographic long ago for all I know.

by bogbrush Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:29 pm

Henman Bill wrote:
bogbrush wrote:I was checking the rankings to verify my comment above and was suitably reassured.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/Singles.aspx

However, I was far more disturbed by the picture of Nadal on the left. Exactly when was that taken? Not only is his face not contorted mid-shot in it's usual twisted parody of humanity but the facial expression combined with overall "look" appears .... well frankly there's no getting around this........ like it's lifted from a magazine more used to featuring interviews with Dale Winton and Graham Norton, with fashion features by Gok Wan.

Is this part of a diversity drive by the ATP, or just Rafa looking to expand his demographics?

Ah, so that's your secret fantasy. This explain a lot.

Sorry to disappoint but I'm as committedly hetero as anyone could be, even to the point of irrationally feeling the need to ask what it explains.

by bogbrush Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:29 pm

Henman Bill wrote:I hereby dispute the statement.

Actually, I don't even see said picture of Nadal. Are you sure it's not just all in your head?

hehe

Gentle and unwise. Not a great combination Sad

by barrystar Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:30 pm

bogbrush wrote:Whilst I can imagine Fed falling to #5 in principle, I find it difficult to contemplate him being below David Ferrer under any circumstances; that would probably indicate a fundamental flaw in the ranking system warranting a major re-think of the calculation.

Having said that, those suggesting a fall to #5 could herald further drops (outside of #8) because of quarter final defeats to big players are simply not paying attention to the utter dearth of tennis ability that resides outside the top 8. That zone is such a desert, inhabited only by pathetic talentless oafs without any mental strength that Federer can have a place in the top 8 until he's 50 if he's interested.

Yes and no - Ferrer has picked up 1,500 more points than Federer this year so far, including making it through the RG draw by beating in straights the man who beat Federer handsomely the round before..... He has been more consistent and his highs have been higher than Fed's, not to mention that 4 of his defeats have been vs. Nadal on clay. He merits his place in the rankings.

Rankings reward a combination of consistency and the occasional big haul - Fed has managed both, but in particular he usually wins or goes deep in a fair few big tournaments to make up the bulk of his points. His ability to do that covers up his increasing inconsistency. The difficulty for Fed is that if he is at #5-#8 he faces a situation where in the big tournaments he will, on average, face someone who is likely to beat him in the QF 75% of the time. He is therefore less likely to be able to rely on going deep in bigger tournaments, and more of a premium is placed on his flagging consistency. Therefore, the occasional slip up to a worse player in an early round which has in the the past been an irritation, may become considerably more significant ranking-wise. Add to that the increasing numbers of players who would start thinking that they could tell their grandchildren they'd beaten Federer and he starts facing more 'mini-finals' rather than players who believe they've lost before the match starts.

I stress - this is on the basis of Fed not getting fitter than he is now. If he does a Haas then in my view he looks good to keep Ferrer and others out of #4 for a while yet, but if he stays at his current level of fitness the struggles are about to start.

by barrystar Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:35 pm

bogbrush wrote:I was checking the rankings to verify my comment above and was suitably reassured.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/Singles.aspx

However, I was far more disturbed by the picture of Nadal on the left. Exactly when was that taken? Not only is his face not contorted mid-shot in it's usual twisted parody of humanity but the facial expression combined with overall "look" appears .... well frankly there's no getting around this........ like it's lifted from a magazine more used to featuring interviews with Dale Winton and Graham Norton, with fashion features by Gok Wan.

Is this part of a diversity drive by the ATP, or just Rafa looking to expand his demographics?

I think you mean the photograph on the right - the ones of each player running for something when you run the cursor over their names in the ranking list? It looks like a promo attempt which went wrong because most of them have a "what is this all about, I feel so silly" look on their faces. Nadal looks like someone said, "make out you are chasing a ball..."

by Henman Bill Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:36 pm

barrystar wrote:As a fan of his I'd like to see him keep the slam QF run going, get to the WTF, make SF at Wimbledon or USO, and try to pick up Basel and one of the fast HC Masters. That would be none too shabby a year. If he's got time and inclination to put in some serious work after Wimbledon he might rally a bit like 2010 or 2011, that would be grand. He has one pretty good continuity run which is seriously under threat this year, reaching a Slam Final every year since 2013.

Who cares about all these minor achievements when you've got 17 slams in the bank? His target for this year should be to to WIN one of either Wimbledon, US Open or the World Tour Finals. If it's reached the stage when his top target is Cincinatti or reaching a semi final it's probably time to take a bow.

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