Federer watershed moment coming up.........

First topic message reminder :

Barring an unexpected (for me) win at Wimbledon, the next few weeks are going to see a big change for Federer watchers.  He is set to defend 3,450 points between now and the beginning of the US Open (2,000 + 450 + 1,000), that is more points to defend in the next two months than he has earned in the 6 months this year to date.  Unless his form improves a lot, he is set to move from #3 down to the frantic ranks of those trying to qualify for the WTF.  This would be the first time he's been in such a place since 2002 - a very big change. 

Many on this site have indicated that the real difference from last year is Fed's physical shape - as well as back issues he is not looking as fit as usual and his v. important footwork is suffering.  It will be fascinating to see whether: (a) he can pull a mini-revival; or, (b) if he can't, whether his love of the game will sustain him happily in such unfamiliar surroundings - his current utterances suggest he expects to play for a good 2-3 years yet.  For my part I suspect he's going to finish up somewhere between #5 and #8 after a none too stellar year (albeit more than decent for a 31-yr-old) and then I'd think he's got to want (or be able) to go back to the gym a la Tommy Haas if he's really going to enjoy 2014, because if he can't get back up he's going to find himself facing the top 3 in QF's more and more often, with the resulting adverse effect on his rankings, his seedings, and his prospects.

To my mind the thing that sets the 'big four' apart in terms of rankings is that they are habitual winners of Masters series tournaments and for them making slam SF's and better is the rule not the exception.  Fed has not looked like a Masters winner anywhere this year, and he is looking like someone for whom a slam QF/SF is about as much as he can hope for.  Wimbledon and Cincinnati are traditionally two of his best tournaments - they will be good bellwethers of where he is right now.

bogbrush wrote:the facial expression combined with overall "look" appears  .... well frankly there's no getting around this........ like it's lifted from a magazine more used to featuring interviews with Dale Winton and Graham Norton, with fashion features by Gok Wan.

The Radio Times?

Barrystar, if you fall to #5 you are still going to have some tournaments where one of the 4 is absent and you are seeded 4 anyway. You are also going to have some tournaments where you reach the QF and 1 of the top 4 you were due to play has suffered a defeat before that. Or you are going to play Ferrer which is the easier option (except on clay when you could argue it's Murray). Or Federer is going to actually beat the others sometimes. At the end of the day, you usually end up about where you deserve.

HM Murdoch wrote:

bogbrush wrote:the facial expression combined with overall "look" appears  .... well frankly there's no getting around this........ like it's lifted from a magazine more used to featuring interviews with Dale Winton and Graham Norton, with fashion features by Gok Wan.

The Radio Times?

Henman Bill wrote:

barrystar wrote:As a fan of his I'd like to see him keep the slam QF run going, get to the WTF, make SF at Wimbledon or USO, and try to pick up Basel and one of the fast HC Masters.  That would be none too shabby a year.  If he's got time and inclination to put in some serious work after Wimbledon he might rally a bit like 2010 or 2011, that would be grand.  He has one pretty good continuity run which is seriously under threat this year, reaching a Slam Final every year since 2013.

Who cares about all these minor achievements when you've got 17 slams in the bank? His target for this year should be to to WIN one of either Wimbledon, US Open or the World Tour Finals. If it's reached the stage when his top target is Cincinatti or reaching a semi final it's probably time to take a bow.

I'm not suggesting what he should be aiming for, but what he might be happy with at the end of a season and think it's worth another go if he misses his main aims.  I'm sure he's going for slam wins, but he likes and notes all his lesser records (the QF run is pretty good) and wins as well as the big ones, and I'm sure he'd love to win Cincinatti and Basel again - he was dead chuffed to win Halle.  He clearly puts the WTF in high esteem - he might be less knackered there this year than he was in 2012 and if Djoko/Nadal, and Murray are involved in a titanic battle for #1&2 for the rest of the season he may have an opportunity.  If he can carry on feeling that aiming for a slam is reasonable and he is able to win tournaments like Cincinatti and Basel I'm sure he'd keep going; but if he aims at slams and misses and can't even pick up the likes of Cincinatti & Basel or maintain a level of consistently reaching Slam QF's, then I think he'd struggle to enjoyh it.

Henman Bill wrote:Barrystar, if you fall to #5 you are still going to have some tournaments where one of the 4 is absent and you are seeded 4 anyway. You are also going to have some tournaments where you reach the QF and 1 of the top 4 you were due to play has suffered a defeat before that. Or you are going to play Ferrer which is the easier option (except on clay when you could argue it's Murray). Or Federer is going to actually beat the others sometimes. At the end of the day, you usually end up about where you deserve.

You are right, but at #5 he does not have the luxury of knowing that he won't face ever face them before the QF, whether he faces them in a QF is out of his hands.  What you say about just deserts is precisely my point - he's got to decide how much work he's going to put in to what level of reward.  At the moment, for whatever reason, his physical state is not allowing him to maximise his talent.  At the age of 31 is he going to do what is necessary for that going forward....?

I am a bit confused with Fed's state. If he is suffering back problems, he should take a few months off and sort it out.
If he has become too lazy and can't be bothered to do his hard work off-court, then good luck.

If he thinks he can push on like this and get lucky here and there, and like he said after Halle he is playing very good (not true), but sometimes other are better (really?), then keep going as it is, be happy with ATP250 and QF.

Even if he does bad at W, on HC later on summer he should get some SF/F.

I'm a little curious how can his form deteriorate so fast barring health issues so much within 6 months.

I've been to 11 tournaments Fed has played, the last one Basel 2011, which he won, and I will keep it as the last time I saw him play live and win properly. Sure I will go and see him in Seniors Tour after some years.

He needs to sort this out before I see him play on Monday!