Rugby Championship Prospects

First topic message reminder :

Here is the schedule for the upcoming Rugby Championship:

Round KO Date/Time NZ Game Venue
Round 1 17-Aug-2013 10:05pm Australia Vs New Zealand ANZ Stadium, Sydney, Australia
Round 1 18-Aug-2013 1.00am South Africa Vs Argentina Free State Stadium, Bloemfontein, South Africa
Round 2 24-Aug-2013 7:35pm New Zealand Vs Australia Westpac Stadium, Wellington, New Zealand
Round 2 25-Aug-2013 7:10am Argentina Vs South Africa Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendoza, Argentina
Round 3 7-Sep-2013 7:35pm New Zealand Vs Argentina Waikato Stadium, Hamilton, New Zealand
Round 3 7-Sep-2013 10:05pm Australia Vs South Africa Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Australia
Round 4 14-Sep-2013 7:35pm New Zealand Vs South Africa Eden Park, Auckland, New Zealand
Round 4 14-Sep-2013 10:05pm Australia Vs Argentina Subiaco Oval, Perth, Australia
Round 5 29-Sep-2013 3:00am South Africa Vs Australia Newlands Stadium, Cape Town, South Africa
Round 5 29-Sep-2013 11:40am Argentina Vs New Zealand Estadio Ciudad de La Plata, La Plata, Argentina
Round 6 6-Oct-2013 3:00am South Africa Vs New Zealand Coca-Cola Park, Johannesburg, South Africa
Round 6 6-Oct-2013 11:40am Argentina Vs Australia Estadio Gigante de Arroyito, Rosario, Argentina

One month until the kick-off so I thought an appropriate time to consider the prospects of each team. Before that, a couple of points about the fixtures and travel schedule. My understanding is that Sydney is the venue for the opening game of the Bledisole Cup matches and Australia is at a numerical advantage in terms of home matches in the series. My point is not so much that as frankly the Sydney game has a vocal Kiwi cheering section along with quite a few other Aussie venues. The next logical step from a Sydney game for NZ is a home game, which is against Australia. But then instead of travelling we get 2 more home games against Argentina and SA respectively. Meanwhile SA has come from their game at home against Argentina, a game away in Argentina, a game in Australia and then a game in NZ. That's infinitely more demanding as a travel schedule and I think it stems from this agreement between Australia and NZ that the first game is in Sydney. That means SA have to play Argentina home and away. Similarly, Australia get to play at home, away in NZ and then two home games. Seems a similar cushy travel schedule to ease yourself into the tournament. The question is would you want to get your travel out the way or have it at the closing stage of the tournament? Even though you might be physically more tired at the end of the tournament, I'd still much prefer to have my home games first up, build a points advantage and control your destiny in the closing stages. It seems wholly unfair to SA and Argentina to have their travel schedule each year in the first half of the tournament. I know this is only the second year of the tournament but there does appear to be a pattern and I think NZ and Australia benefit from this. What do you think?

So now to the prospects of each team.

NZ: The holders and with the advantage of the return of McCaw. Conrad Smith won't be taking his sabbatical until the end of the year and Carter has the option of taking some more time out at the end of the year but may choose to spend it with his new child or do a rugby lite travel experience. Regardless, NZ has its full complement.

I'm not sure on the injury status of Corey Jane and whether he will return in the RC. Ben Smith has been a revelation and has shown that Super form should be rewarded. Weepu may well be persisted with and Aaron Smith's form was pleasing against France. Perenara may well be brought on the November tour and TK Barlow seemed to play better against France than his brief but unconvincing performances in the NH last November. But that backline has a good deal of solidity to it. Injuries in the centres would be the big concern but there is pleasing depth at flyhalf and halfback where previously there was very little. I don't think Hansen will risk new centre partnerships until November when he has to find a replacement for Smith (which might be filled by his namesake with Jane going to the right wing) and Ranger is heading off to France so he might only be injury cover.

In the forwards, there are a lot more question marks. Will McCaw be match fit and in any kind of form? Cane is a backup along with Todd but they are obviously not of the same class. Messam will benefit from the return of McCaw but will Luata be tried and tested more, at least from a bench role? The breakdown was sketchy against an impressive French backrow and we lack physicality at 6 or at least do so at key moments in a match. We have 3 good locks in Whitelock, Romano and Retallick but after that the drop in class is worrying and even more so when the last two aforementioned locks are still growing and developing their game. The front row is also of concern. We have two experienced but aged hookers and an equally experienced and aged LH prop and a few other possibilities but none that inspires any great deal of experience.

So overall, a nice mix of experience and youth but a lot more solidity in the backs than in the forwards in general terms. Some definite weaknesses or concerns but generally I have been pleased with the way Hansen has gone about developing the team and looking to the future. As holders, NZ will be favourites whether that is deserved or not. Personally I think it is but I one thing is for sure: the way injuries stand at the moment, NZ is in for a much tougher tournament than last year when SA and Australia in particular were decimated by injuries.

Australia: A lost series but a new coach. Somehow I get the feeling our Aussie posters on here are more receptive to that than if they had won the series and retained their now former coach. The big question is what can McKenzie bring to the Wallabies that Deans did not? When you look at MacKenzie's record with the Reds against NZ franchises, it is an impressive record. Out of 19 games I think he has lost only 4 matches against NZ sides. Brisbane is a fortress for the Reds but there's something else behind that. I think what McKenzie can best offer is hope and belief. You can't help but feel inspired by that record. The Reds have not won in Christchurch since 1999 but I get the feeling if they were to pull off an upset win there, it would have a positive spillover effect into the national team. Irrespective of that result, McKenzie offers a fresh start. That applies to players like Cooper, Beale, JOC, Ioane that have been off form or out of favour for disciplinary reasons. That also applies to their dismal record over NZ in recent times. If McKenzie can extract the performances Australia have put in against SA in recent times over NZ, then confidence will grow and we all know what a dangerous beast a confident Wallaby is.

The big question is what does McKenzie do with the backline shuffle? If Cooper becomes the flyhalf again as you'd expect, what happens to JOC. Beale is best at fullback and Folau is worth a crack. Mogg and LLF impressed for me in the Lions series whereas Ioane flattered to deceive. So where do you put JOC and where does that leave Mogg and LLF. Personally, I'd put in LLF and leave Cooper to worry about his performance rather than the added responsibility of the goalkicking. Put JOC on the left wing and Folau on the right and AAC and LLF partnering the centres. Mogg can be a utility replacement.

The other big question is what to do with the forwards. Was the last Lions test an anomaly? Or could it happen again? I was impressed by Mowen in the Lions series. If Higganbotham returns I'd look to replace Palu at the back. He had a disappointing series for me and the Wallabies lacked his ball carrying ability. The other question is the openside flanker. Will Pocock be fit and if not Hooper or Gill? Or continue the Smith comeback fairytale? Personally I'd be looking to bring in Smith only for injury cover. McKenzie must look to the future and bring on Gill and Hooper. Can the front row compete or will they be exposed like they were in the third test? What impact will the new scrum laws being trialled in the RC have on the scrum and will they even up the scrums or will they still reward powerful scrums. A lot of unknowns in this area and McKenzie as a former test prop will undoubtedly be working tirelessly in this area. The question is will he be able to turnaround performance in a short time or will this be a work in progress?

SA. Meyer has a difficult few choices to make. He cannot consider overseas talent and players like Louw who were immense last year are not players easy to replace. He has a lot of young talent but he also still has a core senior talent from which to choose. Morne Steyn, JDV and Bryan Habana are in good form. Players like JP are not. So will he plump for experience or will he choose some young exciting players, notably in the backs, who have demonstrated an ability to be resourceful and unpredictable on attack? Two games first up against Argentina might see Meyer go for the second option and see how the young fellas perform. Any problems and he can revert to a more experienced line up. The real conundrum will be the next two rounds in Australia and NZ. SA have struggled to impose the game they want on Australia, particularly away from home. They got a good result last year at home but then were humbled to a large extent in the backs (youthful inexperienced players) by NZ. Meyer will surely bear that in mind and I can only see him plumping for a younger bolder selection if they seriously impress against Argentina.

In the forwards I see fewer problems. There is a drain of experience but there are such exciting players still to be picked that it's possible to gloss over those losses. Etzebeth is turning into such a commanding player that I think people in a few years will be saying Victor Who? There is power, size and technical ability and though there are still bold calls that Meyer can make, I think the selection headaches will come more for him in the backs.

Argentina: They came so close to getting a win last year but they'll be disappointed they didn't chalk up their win. In a way, it was the year to do it. Frankly it's not going to get any easier for them. It's difficult to talk about their prospects as they had a large number of players unavailable for the England series and I'll be honest and say I never watched any of those matches. To me it was pleasing that last year they incorporated an offloading game and they had some backs who were capable of opening up defences. They need to continue to do that as well as build on their traditional pack strength. We need Argie Fan to update us more on the team. It's disrespectful on my part to devote such little insight into their prospects but in a way all eyes are off them leading up to this tournament. Australia and NZ have the advantage of seeing two games against SA before they face them and at least SA have the advantage of a home game first up against them. The way the travel schedule is though, I think Argentina will struggle most with what they. At least SA is used to this kind of travel with Super rugby. Argentina are not and they are similarly not used to week in week out matches of this magnitude. It's a tall order for them but regardless they will not be taken lightly when the teams have to face them. They are well aware of what they're capable of doing to them if they don't prepare properly.

All in all an intriguing tournament awaits us. A lot of new players will be introduced and maybe new styles will be adopted by the teams. Injuries will play an important part but my hope is that we don't have anywhere near the amount of injuries we had last year. What are your thoughts on the teams' prospects?

Kia, in a way it is fortunate because NZ have three of those injuries in one position and have the depth to cover it.

Messam is a loss, but Luatua is a solid replacement.

Retallic is also a good replacement for romano

Yes it is unfortunate when injuries occur but so far we have cover. Another lock injury would be a big problem. Romano already leaves a gap because Rettalick and he have not been playing full games.

Okay now we are getting down to our 4th and 5th choice first fives. If we win with these guys that's depth.

Mate, the team consists of 15 players, even if you need to out someone in there like Anscombe to cover you will still be doing well.

Aaron Smith is playing well, he can take a little more responsibility and you can play a bit off nine if necessary, as long as whoever plays at ten is flat enough and gets the ball into space.

Biltong wrote:Mate, the team consists of 15 players, even if you need to out someone in there like Anscombe to cover you will still be doing well.

Aaron Smith is playing well, he can take a little more responsibility and you can play a bit off nine if necessary, as long as whoever plays at ten is flat enough and gets the ball into space.

Testing the depth improves the squad capabilities.

It's a good thing in the long run

maestegmafia wrote:
Testing the depth improves the squad capabilities.

It's a good thing in the long run

Tell that to the current Wallabies coach, and the previous one too!!!

Next time we play you guys I would like to play against your 4/5 choice first fives and see how happy you are. Off course it builds depth but I don't want to lose.

Lobbe is back for Argentina so the Pumas will be lifted by having their captain back. Will he be match fit though?

Saili is tipped to start in order for Nonu to get over his ankle injury. I think this is the time to give him a run sandwiched in between Conrad Smith and Dan Carter. Gives him peace of mind to concentrate on his game safe in the knowledge he has two senior players looking after him outside him.

Seems like SBW is about to announce a three year agreement with the Chiefs so now Hansen has to look at 13 and 11 for depth and we're looking sweet in the backs.

It seems the rats are returning to the ship that was sinking,both Kaino and SBW rumoured to be returning to NZ for Chiefs.WHAT PRICE LOYALTY?Rene Ranger finally cracked the side but
at least had the decency to make himself unavailable for selection.No shortage of mid field backs Crotty or Taylor come into the equation,wings ,9``,10, 15 no problem.
Backrowers there are many who can cover 2 Whitelocks for example,Todd is in the McCaw mode.Lock is the problem there players like Donnelly,Eaton,Thrush who can cover but after
the starting 3 it looks thin especially with Romano out.How good is Barrett hardly any game time wouldn't start versus the Boks.Whatever happened to Hosae Gear?

He went to France Alan.

The tight five needs strengthening in terms of cover. Back row seems more possibilities even though injuries will cause a big drop in class.

The Boks picked up a bonus point against Argentina. NZ should put that out of their mind. They need to focus on the game and assess their position during it. The Pumas will be looking to slow down NZ ball so the forwards will have to do the groundwork. Will Messam play on his home ground? Will Hansen put Luatua as lock and back row cover? Part of me wants Luatua to continue at 6 but resting up for SA could be an advantage like with Nonu.

Messams out going by todays run. Sai'ili has been training at 12. Good timing with DC and Smith either side. Henry's been hanging with the Argies a bit and their performances between the first two tests means theyre on the improve.

Wallabies team to play SA

15: Israel Folau, 14: Nick Cummins, 13: Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12: Christian Lealiifano, 11: James O'Connor, 10: Quade Cooper, 9: Will Genia, 8: Jake Schatz, 7: Michael Hooper, 6: Ben Mowen, 5: James Horwill (c), 4: Rob Simmons, 3: Ben Alexander, 2: Stephen Moore, 1: James Slipper. Reserves: 16: Saia Faingaa, 17: Sekope Kepu, 18: Scott Sio, 19: Kane Douglas, 20: Scott Fardy, 21: Nic White, 22: Tevita Kuridrani, 23: Matt Toomua.

Mckenzie defends his decision to play cooper at 10, and I'm glad he does as I think Toomua deserves to start there again personally. But I am happy with the selection choice, it's not a bad one.

Loving the back three! That is a bloody good back three. The speed of JOC and his ability to find gaps and make ground, the power and strength of cummins, who I think of as George North on steroids, and finally Folau at fb who is a seriously dangerous player. Hopefully his kicking game is good and his counter attacks are potent. He might do better if he goes for a run and limits his kicking a bit anyway.

Not sure on the balance of the back row. Think I would go Hooper and Gill on the flanks with Mowen at 8 until Higginbotham is back.
I think Schatz is the weakest of the Reds back row and like the style of Ed Quirk for the future.
Quirk, Gill and Higginbotham could be pretty destructive together.

Yeah, liking Folau at the back as he''ll see a lot more ball now that he won't have to die wondering whether two-dads (great nick-name!) will ever pass it to him. Wonder if this will be a back-lash kind of game for Oz after the previous ones. Will we ever see Oz live up to their potential, we've been waiting a long time. It's always potential this and that with Oz.

Pumas make four changes but Honzai noodles should make the difference: