Rugby Championship Prospects

First topic message reminder :

Here is the schedule for the upcoming Rugby Championship:

Round KO Date/Time NZ Game Venue
Round 1 17-Aug-2013 10:05pm Australia Vs New Zealand ANZ Stadium, Sydney, Australia
Round 1 18-Aug-2013 1.00am South Africa Vs Argentina Free State Stadium, Bloemfontein, South Africa
Round 2 24-Aug-2013 7:35pm New Zealand Vs Australia Westpac Stadium, Wellington, New Zealand
Round 2 25-Aug-2013 7:10am Argentina Vs South Africa Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendoza, Argentina
Round 3 7-Sep-2013 7:35pm New Zealand Vs Argentina Waikato Stadium, Hamilton, New Zealand
Round 3 7-Sep-2013 10:05pm Australia Vs South Africa Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Australia
Round 4 14-Sep-2013 7:35pm New Zealand Vs South Africa Eden Park, Auckland, New Zealand
Round 4 14-Sep-2013 10:05pm Australia Vs Argentina Subiaco Oval, Perth, Australia
Round 5 29-Sep-2013 3:00am South Africa Vs Australia Newlands Stadium, Cape Town, South Africa
Round 5 29-Sep-2013 11:40am Argentina Vs New Zealand Estadio Ciudad de La Plata, La Plata, Argentina
Round 6 6-Oct-2013 3:00am South Africa Vs New Zealand Coca-Cola Park, Johannesburg, South Africa
Round 6 6-Oct-2013 11:40am Argentina Vs Australia Estadio Gigante de Arroyito, Rosario, Argentina

One month until the kick-off so I thought an appropriate time to consider the prospects of each team. Before that, a couple of points about the fixtures and travel schedule. My understanding is that Sydney is the venue for the opening game of the Bledisole Cup matches and Australia is at a numerical advantage in terms of home matches in the series. My point is not so much that as frankly the Sydney game has a vocal Kiwi cheering section along with quite a few other Aussie venues. The next logical step from a Sydney game for NZ is a home game, which is against Australia. But then instead of travelling we get 2 more home games against Argentina and SA respectively. Meanwhile SA has come from their game at home against Argentina, a game away in Argentina, a game in Australia and then a game in NZ. That's infinitely more demanding as a travel schedule and I think it stems from this agreement between Australia and NZ that the first game is in Sydney. That means SA have to play Argentina home and away. Similarly, Australia get to play at home, away in NZ and then two home games. Seems a similar cushy travel schedule to ease yourself into the tournament. The question is would you want to get your travel out the way or have it at the closing stage of the tournament? Even though you might be physically more tired at the end of the tournament, I'd still much prefer to have my home games first up, build a points advantage and control your destiny in the closing stages. It seems wholly unfair to SA and Argentina to have their travel schedule each year in the first half of the tournament. I know this is only the second year of the tournament but there does appear to be a pattern and I think NZ and Australia benefit from this. What do you think?

So now to the prospects of each team.

NZ: The holders and with the advantage of the return of McCaw. Conrad Smith won't be taking his sabbatical until the end of the year and Carter has the option of taking some more time out at the end of the year but may choose to spend it with his new child or do a rugby lite travel experience. Regardless, NZ has its full complement.

I'm not sure on the injury status of Corey Jane and whether he will return in the RC. Ben Smith has been a revelation and has shown that Super form should be rewarded. Weepu may well be persisted with and Aaron Smith's form was pleasing against France. Perenara may well be brought on the November tour and TK Barlow seemed to play better against France than his brief but unconvincing performances in the NH last November. But that backline has a good deal of solidity to it. Injuries in the centres would be the big concern but there is pleasing depth at flyhalf and halfback where previously there was very little. I don't think Hansen will risk new centre partnerships until November when he has to find a replacement for Smith (which might be filled by his namesake with Jane going to the right wing) and Ranger is heading off to France so he might only be injury cover.

In the forwards, there are a lot more question marks. Will McCaw be match fit and in any kind of form? Cane is a backup along with Todd but they are obviously not of the same class. Messam will benefit from the return of McCaw but will Luata be tried and tested more, at least from a bench role? The breakdown was sketchy against an impressive French backrow and we lack physicality at 6 or at least do so at key moments in a match. We have 3 good locks in Whitelock, Romano and Retallick but after that the drop in class is worrying and even more so when the last two aforementioned locks are still growing and developing their game. The front row is also of concern. We have two experienced but aged hookers and an equally experienced and aged LH prop and a few other possibilities but none that inspires any great deal of experience.

So overall, a nice mix of experience and youth but a lot more solidity in the backs than in the forwards in general terms. Some definite weaknesses or concerns but generally I have been pleased with the way Hansen has gone about developing the team and looking to the future. As holders, NZ will be favourites whether that is deserved or not. Personally I think it is but I one thing is for sure: the way injuries stand at the moment, NZ is in for a much tougher tournament than last year when SA and Australia in particular were decimated by injuries.

Australia: A lost series but a new coach. Somehow I get the feeling our Aussie posters on here are more receptive to that than if they had won the series and retained their now former coach. The big question is what can McKenzie bring to the Wallabies that Deans did not? When you look at MacKenzie's record with the Reds against NZ franchises, it is an impressive record. Out of 19 games I think he has lost only 4 matches against NZ sides. Brisbane is a fortress for the Reds but there's something else behind that. I think what McKenzie can best offer is hope and belief. You can't help but feel inspired by that record. The Reds have not won in Christchurch since 1999 but I get the feeling if they were to pull off an upset win there, it would have a positive spillover effect into the national team. Irrespective of that result, McKenzie offers a fresh start. That applies to players like Cooper, Beale, JOC, Ioane that have been off form or out of favour for disciplinary reasons. That also applies to their dismal record over NZ in recent times. If McKenzie can extract the performances Australia have put in against SA in recent times over NZ, then confidence will grow and we all know what a dangerous beast a confident Wallaby is.

The big question is what does McKenzie do with the backline shuffle? If Cooper becomes the flyhalf again as you'd expect, what happens to JOC. Beale is best at fullback and Folau is worth a crack. Mogg and LLF impressed for me in the Lions series whereas Ioane flattered to deceive. So where do you put JOC and where does that leave Mogg and LLF. Personally, I'd put in LLF and leave Cooper to worry about his performance rather than the added responsibility of the goalkicking. Put JOC on the left wing and Folau on the right and AAC and LLF partnering the centres. Mogg can be a utility replacement.

The other big question is what to do with the forwards. Was the last Lions test an anomaly? Or could it happen again? I was impressed by Mowen in the Lions series. If Higganbotham returns I'd look to replace Palu at the back. He had a disappointing series for me and the Wallabies lacked his ball carrying ability. The other question is the openside flanker. Will Pocock be fit and if not Hooper or Gill? Or continue the Smith comeback fairytale? Personally I'd be looking to bring in Smith only for injury cover. McKenzie must look to the future and bring on Gill and Hooper. Can the front row compete or will they be exposed like they were in the third test? What impact will the new scrum laws being trialled in the RC have on the scrum and will they even up the scrums or will they still reward powerful scrums. A lot of unknowns in this area and McKenzie as a former test prop will undoubtedly be working tirelessly in this area. The question is will he be able to turnaround performance in a short time or will this be a work in progress?

SA. Meyer has a difficult few choices to make. He cannot consider overseas talent and players like Louw who were immense last year are not players easy to replace. He has a lot of young talent but he also still has a core senior talent from which to choose. Morne Steyn, JDV and Bryan Habana are in good form. Players like JP are not. So will he plump for experience or will he choose some young exciting players, notably in the backs, who have demonstrated an ability to be resourceful and unpredictable on attack? Two games first up against Argentina might see Meyer go for the second option and see how the young fellas perform. Any problems and he can revert to a more experienced line up. The real conundrum will be the next two rounds in Australia and NZ. SA have struggled to impose the game they want on Australia, particularly away from home. They got a good result last year at home but then were humbled to a large extent in the backs (youthful inexperienced players) by NZ. Meyer will surely bear that in mind and I can only see him plumping for a younger bolder selection if they seriously impress against Argentina.

In the forwards I see fewer problems. There is a drain of experience but there are such exciting players still to be picked that it's possible to gloss over those losses. Etzebeth is turning into such a commanding player that I think people in a few years will be saying Victor Who? There is power, size and technical ability and though there are still bold calls that Meyer can make, I think the selection headaches will come more for him in the backs.

Argentina: They came so close to getting a win last year but they'll be disappointed they didn't chalk up their win. In a way, it was the year to do it. Frankly it's not going to get any easier for them. It's difficult to talk about their prospects as they had a large number of players unavailable for the England series and I'll be honest and say I never watched any of those matches. To me it was pleasing that last year they incorporated an offloading game and they had some backs who were capable of opening up defences. They need to continue to do that as well as build on their traditional pack strength. We need Argie Fan to update us more on the team. It's disrespectful on my part to devote such little insight into their prospects but in a way all eyes are off them leading up to this tournament. Australia and NZ have the advantage of seeing two games against SA before they face them and at least SA have the advantage of a home game first up against them. The way the travel schedule is though, I think Argentina will struggle most with what they. At least SA is used to this kind of travel with Super rugby. Argentina are not and they are similarly not used to week in week out matches of this magnitude. It's a tall order for them but regardless they will not be taken lightly when the teams have to face them. They are well aware of what they're capable of doing to them if they don't prepare properly.

All in all an intriguing tournament awaits us. A lot of new players will be introduced and maybe new styles will be adopted by the teams. Injuries will play an important part but my hope is that we don't have anywhere near the amount of injuries we had last year. What are your thoughts on the teams' prospects?

He didnt make it to trainging one morning.

Really?

Well thats understnadable isnt it Laurie...

Halai wakes up and ponders..."Shall I go to an ALL BLACK training today...?" or shall I <insert some meaningless other activity I had planned for today here>

It's normally the case that the side hosting the lions wins the SANZAR comp due to their tune up.

They wouldnt have had any extra time tuning up on this new "Crouch......Bind......Set" business.

Weepu is axed in favour of a fitter, younger TJ Perenara with a similar skill-set. He showed his class though by tweeting his young successor and vowed that his AB career wasn't done and dusted yet. Having Cruden as an extra goal kicker helps that decision though the young man hasn't been all that convincing with the boot recently.

Vito is also out and the versatility of Luata who can cover lock as well gets him the nod.

Ranger has opted out but has said if injury strikes and the team needs him, he's prepared to play.

Crockett is injured and I imagine Woodcock will be asked to play instead. There was talk of alternating Hore and Mealamu for the RC and AI tests but the threat of Argentina and SA in the scrum has put pay to that line of thinking.

The one surprise for me is Cane retains his position and the statement that he has been outstanding in the tests he's played. I thought he was largely anonymous against France and lacks the physicality of McCaw or Todd. Strange that Vito gets dumped for that reason and Cane survives. If he can't make the Chiefs first squad consistently, you'd think alarm bells would ring for the NZ selectors. Apparently not.

First part of what looks to be an interesting look at McKenzie's options:

http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/a-perfect-10/

Carter is out for 3-4 weeks with a calf injury so Cruden and Barrett make up the flyhalf position. McKenzie said NZ are in transition and this is just an example of that.

No worries Kia, well used to DC being 'niggled' just before a big test match- so used to it I said he should never train...just play.

McKenzie playing the transition card on his first test- thats a good 'un...

How much the Ozzies retain from the Lions hype will be interesting. Wonder if Cooper will get booed by the kiwi sydney crowd?

ooooh...the mind games are a startin'!!

I just read that 5 of the Argentinian squad aren't even attached to clubs!
I'd like to see them go well this year although getting a a creditable draw at home to SA last year was a fantastic result.

Cruden is better than carter anyway at the moment.
We just need another kicking option.

Put Anscombe at 15, he is a good player and great kicker

Not the way Dagg closed out the Super season BB. He can kick as well.

Barrett is another option. With LLF in the team for Australia, what's sure is that if the game is close, he'll be banging them over. So we need to meet the challenge of this Australian side turning over a new leaf with fire and brimstone and don't give them any bright ideas.

Taylorman wrote:No worries Kia, well used to DC being 'niggled' just before a big test match- so used to it I said he should never train...just play.

McKenzie playing the transition card on his first test- thats a good 'un...

How much the Ozzies retain from the Lions hype will be interesting. Wonder if Cooper will get booed by the kiwi sydney crowd?

ooooh...the mind games are a startin'!!

If that happens, then there should be grief to be had.  Play your Joey Deacon self-absorbed selves at home, but not here.

Really looking forward to this, after the disappointing lions series and France capitulating against NZ this could really do with being a competitive affair.
 
Usually I support the kiwis as my tri-nations team but have decided to back the boks...the international game desperately needs someone to put pressure on NZ and SA look best placed with some serious monsters in the pack. Plus Ireland is pretty much a saffer colony these days .....
 
I hope Argentina can chalk up a few wins though.

rodders wrote:Really looking forward to this, after the disappointing lions series and France capitulating against NZ this could really do with being a competitive affair.
 
Usually I support the kiwis as my tri-nations team but have decided to back the boks...the international game desperately needs someone to put pressure on NZ and SA look best placed with some serious monsters in the pack. Plus Ireland is pretty much a saffer colony these days .....
 
I hope Argentina can chalk up a few wins though.

  My Friend, my hero.

They can put pressure on us and still lose rodders. Just when you think know somebody.  

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:They can put pressure on us and still lose rodders. Just when you think know somebody.  

Hopefully this time we will be smarter about it. No Greyling for starters which is a big plus. Maybe, just maybe we will have learnt to play to the referee, suck up nicely, smile when we look at him, and not make stupid decisions.

We do that, we have a chance, whether he have smartened up is of course another question all together.

 good man bilts..... I even forgive you guys for stealing Pienaar ....

rodders wrote: good man bilts..... I even forgive you guys for stealing Pienaar ....

 

Feck it. I'll overlook Kirchner too. you probably need him more than us. can you promose you won't play him in the currie cup.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:Feck it. I'll overlook Kirchner too. you probably need him more than us. can you promose you won't play him in the currie cup.

Mate, I really hope he isn't playing in this tournament. We must, absolutely must play some of our youngsters.

It is vital that Meyer realises we know what Kirchner brings to the party, we now need someone that can bring something different to the game, between Kirchner, Steyn and Pienaar, we might never again run a damn ball, same if Fourie du Preez gets the nod.

Join my "ban the up and under" campaign BT!

PR.com are running a who will be top scorer poll...



Top try-scorer in the Rugby Championship?

Bryan Habana
Julian Savea
Bjorn Basson
Ben Smith
Israel Dagg
Joe Tomane
Israel Folau
Adam Ashley-Cooper
Conrad Smith
Any Argentine

boomeranga wrote:

Taylorman wrote:No worries Kia, well used to DC being 'niggled' just before a big test match- so used to it I said he should never train...just play.

McKenzie playing the transition card on his first test- thats a good 'un...

How much the Ozzies retain from the Lions hype will be interesting. Wonder if Cooper will get booed by the kiwi sydney crowd?

ooooh...the mind games are a startin'!!

If that happens, then there should be grief to be had.  Play your Joey Deacon self-absorbed selves at home, but not here.

It wont happen if McKenzie plays Matt Toomua instead of Quade!!!

aucklandlaurie wrote:

boomeranga wrote:

Taylorman wrote:No worries Kia, well used to DC being 'niggled' just before a big test match- so used to it I said he should never train...just play.

McKenzie playing the transition card on his first test- thats a good 'un...

How much the Ozzies retain from the Lions hype will be interesting. Wonder if Cooper will get booed by the kiwi sydney crowd?

ooooh...the mind games are a startin'!!

If that happens, then there should be grief to be had.  Play your Joey Deacon self-absorbed selves at home, but not here.

 It wont happen if McKenzie plays Matt Toomua instead of Quade!!!

Best way to shut up the crowd would be to win.

I'd love to hear the reaction if Cooper scored the winning try though...

yappysnap wrote:

aucklandlaurie wrote:

boomeranga wrote:

Taylorman wrote:No worries Kia, well used to DC being 'niggled' just before a big test match- so used to it I said he should never train...just play.

McKenzie playing the transition card on his first test- thats a good 'un...

How much the Ozzies retain from the Lions hype will be interesting. Wonder if Cooper will get booed by the kiwi sydney crowd?

ooooh...the mind games are a startin'!!

If that happens, then there should be grief to be had.  Play your Joey Deacon self-absorbed selves at home, but not here.

 It wont happen if McKenzie plays Matt Toomua instead of Quade!!!

Best way to shut up the crowd would be to win.

I'd love to hear the reaction if Cooper scored the winning try though...

You are so right Yappy. Quade scoring the winning try in Sydney probably would shut the crowd up.

Takebackbledisloe:

The cousins are being a bit tough on Sumo.

http://video.dailytelegraph.com.au/2400705498/TakeBackBledisloe

Surely part of the crowd would be happy if the Wallabies won.

just seen the NZ team for the weekend!!!

Thats is one scary line up of talent!!!

aucklandlaurie wrote:
Takebackbledisloe:

 The cousins are being a bit tough on Sumo.

http://video.dailytelegraph.com.au/2400705498/TakeBackBledisloe

We're not really your cousins anymore - more like your mum.

If we weren't wiping your &rse and filling your bowl, you'd have nothing to eat.

Yeah, you're probably right booma, thank you for being australian, you guys are awesome.

What it takes to be a Kiwi:

"This is how you play rugby convicts...blah blah blah
"This is how you play rugby criminals...blah blah blah
"This is how you play rugby skippys...blah blah blah

Now ... play All Kiwis Are Humble Victim Card

Ok

AB's looking old, OZ look ordinary and RSA just not looking........so come on Argentina & Samoa...

Really its not looking great is it?

I know everyones going overboard about the scrum changes....which is great....but there's so much more to the see in the bigger picture. So whats this year's RC going to tell us?

Well for starters its surprising that for the side which has for ever been at the apex of progress...well they seem to be struggling to maintain the mantle....I guess by having two 32 year old hookers you atleast won't have to explain to them the intricacies of heeling the ball....Is it just the natural way of things and this being the post world cup cycle....steve hansen is the next andy robinson? I'm not sure but to me it's just not AB rugby to be hanging on to all these old guys who just won't make 2015.....fact
OZ...well OZ has gone but not just yet.....slipping on the event horizon of the NRL black hole....no national competition to.....well thats about it really, that is the flaw that is now catching up with Ozzy....the supper dupper thingy - sticking plaster is just not sticking much anymore. Unless you guys get this then well its going south/north/Japan/NRL but not super dupper......by the way the answer does not include Japan or the US but might be three seperate conferences to include a side each from Tonga, Samoa and Argentina...
RSA get yourselves a coach please who knows stuff.....stop picking overseas players and the world my son is your lobster....
Argentina I wish you well and Samoa my money is on you guys, congratulations and the very best of luck on your first RC. I have to say the vision of the AB's to be the first nation on earth to travel to your fair lands is astonishing and actually man up and play you guys.....well hats off to the AB's thats what I say.....

Samoa?

no no really.....what you saying.....i'm really sure i read......

How can Oz look ordinary at this point? Nobody's seen this new Oz team yet!

Really? No i'm sure most of their players, no actually all of their players have been pretty ordinary in a really ordinary super comp this year.
I know Deans was hardly Mr inspirational but when you understand that the Lions players were at the end of a 10 month season.....i.e knackered....however good they are/were they should have been put to the sword. Sorry I just don't think the current crop of Ozzy is going to rock the world.

Having a 10 at 10 will help. Plus they are unlikely to get a similar scrum showdown as they did in T3 (the only test IMO that they weren't the best team) under the new rules and against opposition they frequently manage with at scrum time. And they will now have several kickers in the side. If they can compete at the breakdown (and they really shoud be able to) they will do fine.



We'll see

Ok, Genia, Folau and their captain are class acts and yes a 10 at 10, but I don't really rate them nor come to that this AB side, so I think it will be difficult to read into the result. Honestly I have to say none of OZ, AB or RSA are at their best, which 2 years out is understandable...ish, however I'm not convinced its the cycle but more to do with other issues the sides are struggling with.

Coles is coming back from injury so has been told to play ITM rugby and get some rugby under his belt. Shag has said his current hookers won't make it to 2015 and one of them won't make it on the end of year tour. All the new players he's introduced since 2011 your comment seems strange. Certain positions require attention but look at all the gaps that have been filled.

boomeranga wrote:
What it takes to be a Kiwi:

"This is how you play rugby convicts...blah blah blah
"This is how you play rugby criminals...blah blah blah
"This is how you play rugby skippys...blah blah blah

Now ... play All Kiwis Are Humble Victim Card

Apologies kiwis. I've o.d'd on rugby forums and gone internet feral. Time for me to go bush walking for a while instead.

Yup, I know the feeling booma and think we all do. No hard feelings my convict cousin:) Here's hoping for a great game to start the Bledisloe series.

boomeranga wrote:

boomeranga wrote:
What it takes to be a Kiwi:

"This is how you play rugby convicts...blah blah blah
"This is how you play rugby criminals...blah blah blah
"This is how you play rugby skippys...blah blah blah

Now ... play All Kiwis Are Humble Victim Card

Apologies kiwis.  I've o.d'd on rugby forums and gone internet feral.  Time for me to go bush walking for a while instead.

No harm done Boomer, but that Bundy will give you a headache.

I suspect your boss at the office is a Kiwi booma! Gonna be a great game. Have a feeling both teams are up for this different reasons.

boomeranga wrote:

Taylorman wrote:No worries Kia, well used to DC being 'niggled' just before a big test match- so used to it I said he should never train...just play.

McKenzie playing the transition card on his first test- thats a good 'un...

How much the Ozzies retain from the Lions hype will be interesting. Wonder if Cooper will get booed by the kiwi sydney crowd?

ooooh...the mind games are a startin'!!

If that happens, then there should be grief to be had.  Play your Joey Deacon self-absorbed selves at home, but not here.

...

I didnt like the way Cooper got treated at the Saders game so the question was genuine. It had almost a cult feel to it, automatic booing everytime QC got the ball, and the type of things some of our dumber folk might continue elsewhere- I suppose the kiwi in ozzie jersey thing doesnt help. I was actually looking forward to seeing QC gain some of that older form- he's still got the best wide flat pass in the game. Looks like he wont be playing anyway.

On the Wellington game next week the engineers have to check the stadium for damage before it can go ahead but it should be fine. Welington buildings seem to have held up pretty well in both the main ones. Another one of those Frekin earthquakes (6.6) hit us yesterday and all but cleared the city out. Our building shook up a bit then swayed for a few minutes afterwards. They're no fun I can tell you.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/9052242/Quake-puts-All-Blacks-capital-test-in-doubt

Half way through the Bok Argie game and can safely say that so far this weekend the ABs look a cut above the rest.

The stadium better be alright. I bought 1 ticket and won 2! I hated the booing of Cooper its really poor taste.

Stadium given the all clear

Team of the week

Planet Rugby ESPNScrum

15 le Roux le Roux
14 B Smith B Smith
13 C Smith Engelbrecht
12 J deVilliers de Villiers
11 Habana Habana
10 Cruden Cruden
9 du Preez du Preez
8 Read Vermeulen
7 McCaw Hooper
6 Luatua Luatua
5 Whitelock Kruger
4 Etzebeth Etzebeth
3 du Plessis du Plessis
2 Strauss Strauss
1 Woodcock Mtawarira

NZ's depth is being tested with injuries. Coles, Cruden, Carter, Barrett, Messam and Romano are out. Romano is a big loss as lock is not a position of great strength for us and he is a big ball carrier.

Australia have an even longer injury list and this setback for NZ will test the character of the squad and force them to come together more as a unit to paper over any cracks that might appear. Not a bad thing necessarily in terms of preparation for 2015 and overcoming setbacks.