Rogers Cup and Cincinatti

First topic message reminder :

Stats definitely not my forte but I have just been looking at how many points the big names have to defend in the the next couple of weeks.

Djokovic Canada W  Cincinnati F 1600
Murray Canada R16 Cincinnati R16 180
Ferrer Canada - Cincinnati R32 10
Nadal Canada - Cincinnati - 0
Federer Canada - Cincinnati W 1000

Very unlikely to be any shuffling at the top (would take a great fortnight by Murray (possible) combined with an epic fail by Djokovic (not going to happen)).

Murray, Ferrer and Nadal both have a great opportunity to strengthen their positions though.  This is the polite way of saying that two of them really should have done better last year! (Edit: Born Slippy has since pointed out that Murray withdrew from Canada last year (knee injury))

Really hope Federer does play Canada this year.  He has a lot of points to defend at Cinci and it could take the pressure off a bit.

Should be a fun fortnight.  Can't wait to see the big names out in force again

As some have alluded to earlier in the thread, the main reason Isner will lose tomorrow will be due to his lack of mobility. Rafa will have no trouble dragging him from side to side, and with the fatigue it'll be difficult for Isner to maintain a high first serve %. If I was coaching Isner I'd almost be tempted to tell him simply focus all your efforts into your own service games and just look to have a big swing at every ball on Rafa's service games... essentially just hope for tie breaks!

Well Al, I think Rafa is the heavy favorite but I would look out in that Isner can pose problems for anyone on a hot serving day especially at cincy where we have seen the balls really flying. His kick serve has been really popping up high as cincy doesn't seem to be as heavy and humid as in past years this year. Lets not forget he came within a whisker of upsetting Nadal at RG over 5 sets. And Isner had a good Canada and has beaten 3 straight top ten players to get here. I actually think on current forum he stands a 25-35 percent chance of an upset. I would take Isner and 3 to 1 money.

Isner's best hope will be to serve at the top of his game and hope that Rafa throws in a very patchy service game (like he did against Berdych last night) and he may have a chance. Sensible money would have to be on Rafa though.

Can't see Rafa losing. If he gets a decent amount of serves back he'll win comfortably.

I won't be watching it though. The Mrs wants to go see Elypsium (or whatever it's called, with Matt Damon) so will expect to see a straight sets score line when I come back. If Isner forces a tie break he'll have done well.

Don't you mean the missus wants to go and see Matt Damon - the film in unimportant.    

At my sons tennis tournament today 100 miles away so won't catch the match either. Isner is a tricky customer, that serve just comes down out of a tree so is different to what the pros normally face. He knows guys like Djokovic and Nadal are better tennis players (he says so) but he also has the confidence that on any given day he can beat them on any surface. After all he's had great wins over Novak and Roger. Rafa is favourite but you just don't know on this faster surface...depends which Isner turns up and whether he's a little tired after his match with Delpo. That said Rafa has had 3 x 3 setters in as many days so might not be as fresh himself plus it's an earlier start today so Nadal will play again only 18 hrs after finishing his Berdych match. Look forward to catching it on SkyPlus later.

To counter-balance that though lydian, Isner had a much longer match. His semi was just short of three hours whereas I think Rafa's was about an hour shorter.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Don't you mean the missus wants to go and see Matt Damon - the film in unimportant.    

She doesn't care much for Damon.... But you should have seen her during the new superman film!

Practically salivating the whole film.

Danny_1982 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Don't you mean the missus wants to go and see Matt Damon - the film in unimportant.    

She doesn't care much for Damon.... But you should have seen her during the new superman film!

Practically salivating the whole film.

Tell her - Matt Bomer makes me

Yes, Mrs. Lydian liked him in Immortals too.
Anyway, at least he's British!

Im gettin my teeth whitened quite early tomorrow, so I will probably take an early night - And no Im not incredibly vain, My sisters puppy headbutted me last weekend, which chipped my tooth. The dentist then gave me a cap which is ridiculously white, which caused my reasonably white teeth to look rather off-colour in comparison, so now I have to whiten everything!

In any case, under normal conditions, Nadal will walk this, and under abnormal conditions (Red-line service day for Isner), Nadal will edge this.

kingraf wrote:Im gettin my teeth whitened quite early tomorrow, so I will probably take an early night - And no Im not incredibly vain,  My sisters puppy headbutted me last weekend, which chipped my tooth. The dentist then gave me a cap which is ridiculously white, which caused my reasonably white teeth to look rather off-colour in comparison, so now I have to whiten everything!

In any case, under normal conditions, Nadal will walk this, and under abnormal conditions (Red-line service day for Isner), Nadal will edge this.

I don't know if you've ever watched Friends, but don't end up like Ross from Friends.

kingraf wrote:Im gettin my teeth whitened quite early tomorrow, so I will probably take an early night - And no Im not incredibly vain,  My sisters puppy headbutted me last weekend, which chipped my tooth. The dentist then gave me a cap which is ridiculously white, which caused my reasonably white teeth to look rather off-colour in comparison, so now I have to whiten everything!

In any case, under normal conditions, Nadal will walk this, and under abnormal conditions (Red-line service day for Isner), Nadal will edge this.

oh hey richard hammond

Nadal to win in 3 sets tonight

It's a marginally more interesting final than Montreal but we're still in Snooze County.

We can list this one alongside Montreal, Roland Garros, Rome and Madrid where the outcome of the final was inevitable.

TSJ -Yeah, I have watched that episode. Hopefully, it will not happen like that!

LS - And just like the Hamster, I will vehemently deny any ever getting them whitened!

"I HAVE NOT HAD MY TEETH WHITENED!"

Stat fans. Prior to their last encounters, Rafa had met his previous 5 final opponents (including Isner) a total of 67 times. Rafa had won 53 matches to 14.

If you remove Federer from the stat, the figures are 34 matches to 4.

Zzzzzzzzzz.

HM Murdoch wrote:Stat fans. Prior to their last encounters, Rafa had met his previous 5 final opponents (including Isner) a total of 67 times. Rafa had won 53 matches to 14.

If you remove Federer from the stat, the figures are 34 matches to 4.

Zzzzzzzzzz.

To quote Federer fanboys...  Bel18ve.

I'm a neutral for this one and hope the crowd can give the best of order to both players instead of just the home favourite.

Thats just taking stats to get what you want (however true they may be). If you just extended your stat alert by one match. It becomes 74-29, which doesnt actually look better!

Conversely, you could say the fact that Nadal has faced Six different opponents in his six Masters Finals is evidence of depth in tour (on any given day, and all that), and Rafa just being on an incredible tear.

Kingraf - let's do the last 5 in isolation then: 3-0, 3-0, 19-4, 19-10, 9-0.

At MC it was 19-15. Way less predictable than the last 5, even though Rafa didn't actually play well in that one.

I'm not knocking Rafa's run, he's faced some tough matches prior to the finals. I'm just bored of the finals being postscripts rather than highlights.

Whoa what a shot!!

I might be exaggerating slightly but Isner's volleys are worse than Novak's.

Isner couldn't read a book, never mind a serve He blows 2 set points on Nadal's serve and we have a tiebreak. JIsner's 32/44 on them this year.

Nadal's serve placement is so clever, always knows the right time to change it up.

Also have to admit contrary to my prediction, Isner's footwork has been real impressive so far.

Nadal has a winning record against every current player in the top 30 apparently...

Only 8 players ever have a winning record vs Nadal. 5 he has played only once. One he only played as a teenager. The only player of significance is Davydenko

Never in doubt. The Rafa serve was moving quite well. Roll on Flushing Meadows! My order of favourites
1) Nadal
2) Murray
3) Djokovic (I dont expect him to lose to the likes of Isner or Dimi in a GS, but he has zero momentum vs Rafa or Murray)
4) Federer - wouldnt have said this three days ago, but he looked the best he looked since bagelling Djoker a year ago.
5) Berdych - Outside shot, but with the right draw...
6) DelPo -Unlikely, but he could do some damage
7) Ferrer - 2x Semi finalist at the Meadows, which will be even slower*

*Subject to a victory for Nadal or Djokovic.

...but hasn't faced Nikolai for ages, if so it would be corrected I'm sure...isnt it 6-5 to Davydenko?

Well done Rafa, this streak is starting to get ridiculous! Now won the tours fast court outdoor Masters to take his tally to 26 Masters titles. Cant see whatever TMS record he sets getting beat for a long time unless Djokovic and Murray start mopping up soon. This title pulls him level with Federer for titles won at 500 level or above...52 each. He's not a runaway fave at USO but he will be hard to beat over 5 sets.

                    

kingraf wrote:Never in doubt. The Rafa serve was moving quite well. Roll on Flushing Meadows! My order of favourites
1) Nadal
2) Murray
3) Djokovic (I dont expect him to lose to the likes of Isner or Dimi in a GS, but he has zero momentum vs Rafa or Murray)
4) Federer - wouldnt have said this three days ago, but he looked the best he looked since bagelling Djoker a year ago.
5) Berdych - Outside shot, but with the right draw...
6) DelPo -Unlikely, but he could do some damage
7) Ferrer - 2x Semi finalist at the Meadows, which will be even slower*

*Subject to a victory for Nadal or Djokovic.

Murray second Raf? Even though barring a shock he'd have to beat Novak and Rafa back to back??

I'm interested to see how Rafa goes on over 5 sets on a hard court. If the weather is dull etc, then it helps him - if it's hot and the ball is flying everywhere.............

I'm not convinced by any of them. Not been able to break the serve of someone like Isner (baring in mind who Nadal is) makes me wonder if Rafa will need quite a few attritional matches. Novak looks all over the place. Andy does seem to have a slam 'game face' on these days (how ironic that he's the most consistent at slams right now!!) but I'm not certain you can decide how to play

Wouldn't rule out Roger, actually

In other words, the same as we thought coming into Wimby

banbrotam wrote:I'm interested to see how Rafa goes on over 5 sets on a hard court. If the weather is dull etc, then it helps him - if it's hot and the ball is flying everywhere.............

I'm not convinced by any of them. Not been able to break the serve of someone like Isner (baring in mind who Nadal is) makes me wonder if Rafa will need quite a few attritional matches. Novak looks all over the place. Andy does seem to have a slam 'game face' on these days (how ironic that he's the most consistent at slams right now!!) but I'm not certain you can decide how to play

Wouldn't rule out Roger, actually

In other words, the same as we thought coming into Wimby

so true, we are right where we were pre-Wimbledon. I hope Rafa gets a test before the final, and isn't seeded to play Ferrer in the semis!

kingraf wrote:Roll on Flushing Meadows! My order of favourites
1) Nadal
2) Murray
3) Djokovic (I dont expect him to lose to the likes of Isner or Dimi in a GS, but he has zero momentum vs Rafa or Murray)

I do not know if I would have them in that order.  I would still - in spite of what he has done - have Rafa below Nole and Andy.  Not by much, but still below them.

Rafa is playing extremely well at the moment but not orders of magnitude better than what he normally does.  I do not think he was that much worse in, for example, 2011 of all years - the difference being that Nole was playing on another level back then.

In the final in Canada against Nole, Rafa was playing at about as high a level as he can expect to play, Nole was significantly below his top level, and yet it was awfully close in the end.

Andy has been pretty consistent in the slams lately and the USO suits him quite well too, and I think he just does not always show up for Masters 1000 these days, irrespective of his actual form, so I am inclined to think he will be pretty good there too.

For me, the order of favorites is still: 1. Nole, 2. Andy, 3. Rafa; but I do have them bunched up pretty close.

To be fair nobody at Cinny could break down Isner's serve

Yeah JIsner was broken only 3 times this week and no more than once in any match. That's insane, but not quite what Federer did last year.

For me, that says more about his ooponents returning abiliy although with it including two of the best returners, you have to give Isner credit

With Murray dropping down to 3 now, no way I'd put him above Nadal in the favourites for the US Open. I'd go with Nadal, Djokovic, Murray.

It's not inconceivable that Nadal's level could dip slightly from the level he's played at these last 2 weeks, but he's unlikely to meet anyone who can take advantage of that until quarters at the earliest. I also don't think Murray would adapt well to Nadal's game so I really cannot see how he could beat him - although he has done so in the past. If he could play him like the AO 2010, I'd be seriously impressed.

Djokovic is the only player I can realistically see beat him and he's got to get to the final first.

So, no one watching the Williams-Azarenka match then? Tough see-sawing contest.

summerblues wrote:

kingraf wrote:Roll on Flushing Meadows! My order of favourites
1) Nadal
2) Murray
3) Djokovic (I dont expect him to lose to the likes of Isner or Dimi in a GS, but he has zero momentum vs Rafa or Murray)

For me, the order of favorites is still: 1. Nole, 2. Andy, 3. Rafa; but I do have them bunched up pretty close.

I agree.

I'd go with
Nole 30% or tiny bit less
Murray 25-30%
Rafa 25% or tiny bit more

I think it's pretty open. I'd have Rafa and Murray just behind Djoko as they are likely to both play him and each other in theory, and Murray just behind Rafa as he is certain to play Rafa and Djoko if all parties get through. In any individual match between the 3, anything could happen and I would struggle to call it. I'm also not writing off Fed who at the very least could be a huge thorn on someone's side of the draw as could DelPo and JWT and maybe even Big Bird. Think this is the most open Major this year

ChequeredJersey wrote:I think it's pretty open. I'd have Rafa and Murray just behind Djoko as they are likely to both play him and each other in theory, and Murray just behind Rafa as he is certain to play Rafa and Djoko if all parties get through. In any individual match between the 3, anything could happen and I would struggle to call it. I'm also not writing off Fed who at the very least could be a huge thorn on someone's side of the draw as could DelPo and JWT and maybe even Big Bird. Think this is the most open Major this year

Just to point out - Tsonga is out of the US Open due to a long-term injury.

Ah ok. One thorn the fewer then

Azarenka giving it a great go here. Serena has rather shockingly never won Cincinatti. Seems she doesn't like the surface.