Rogers Cup and Cincinatti

First topic message reminder :

Stats definitely not my forte but I have just been looking at how many points the big names have to defend in the the next couple of weeks.

Djokovic Canada W  Cincinnati F 1600
Murray Canada R16 Cincinnati R16 180
Ferrer Canada - Cincinnati R32 10
Nadal Canada - Cincinnati - 0
Federer Canada - Cincinnati W 1000

Very unlikely to be any shuffling at the top (would take a great fortnight by Murray (possible) combined with an epic fail by Djokovic (not going to happen)).

Murray, Ferrer and Nadal both have a great opportunity to strengthen their positions though.  This is the polite way of saying that two of them really should have done better last year! (Edit: Born Slippy has since pointed out that Murray withdrew from Canada last year (knee injury))

Really hope Federer does play Canada this year.  He has a lot of points to defend at Cinci and it could take the pressure off a bit.

Should be a fun fortnight.  Can't wait to see the big names out in force again

summerblues wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:Rafa feels like such a strong favourite that my excitement levels are comparable to how I feel before RG. i.e. not too excited!

Oh I am plenty excited about this USO.

First, while Rafa is by a country mile my least favorite among the "big 4", I am still glad he looks in good form again - I love rooting against him and it is far more fun when he is on form .

Second, I would not say he is anywhere near as strong a favorite going into the USO as he would be going into the RG.  He has been playing fantastic these last couple of weeks but I would still make Nole and Andy about equal favorites with him.  In some sense, the set up is perfect - Nole is the best HC player of the three but his form is the worst, while Rafa and Andy look in pretty good form (I would not worry much about Andy's performances in Canada and Cincy, he seems to have decided that Masters tournaments are beneath him nowadays - whether it can work in a long run is questionable, but it has not seemed to hurt him over the last year or so).

So I am expecting a pretty good USO

Spot on SB. I'm not certain of Rafa over 7 roounds of 5 sets on Hard Courts. Even in the shorter form, he's been taken to 3 sets quite regularly - he's winning them!! But wonder if such extra exertions would take the edge off in 5

With regards to Murray, in some ways I admire his one-eyed approach to the majors, but in some respects this attitude to the rest supports my suspicion that he won't be a No. 1 or will be too short lived. He's not robust enough, even yesterday if you note that he was surprised by how faster the court was. Earlier in the week he was liking the faster courts

Murray's only weakness is he is poor (relative to Rafa and Novak) at coping with a surprise change in the conditions - as we saw when Lopez nearly knocked him out of last years US

One thing about the Murray-Nadal match-up is that Murray by his own admission likes predictability and doesn't like it when he can't predict something. On HC, Rafa has changed his game a fair bit (until people force him back into habits with pressure) - will Murray react well enough to that, having been used to the old Rafa game and not having played him in so long?

Rafa hits flatter on a hard court than he used to, Murray won't be used to that. He's also closer to the baseline since they last played.

Murray now unloads on the second shot after serve, he never used to. Also the forehand has way more venom and he's also closer to the baseline.

That's why I want to see it, lots of subtle differences. The world (apart from Hawkeye it seems) wants to see this match.

One of my questions is how big will Nadal's serve be USO? Does he continue pushing it at 120mph, or does he go for it and add the extra 10-15mph?

There's actually a match in progress

Big John's a different player when the conditions are fast. I think he and Anderson are more than just "big servers" - Anderson has a decent return game and Isner has a good forehand and moves quite well for a big man. The funny thing about all these big servers though is that they have good forehands but really average backhands, excluding DelPo. Is there anything behind that?

I personally dont agree with Isner moving well for a big man. Janowicz moves well for a big man. Isner just moves

kingraf wrote:I personally dont agree with Isner moving well for a big man. Janowicz moves well for a big man. Isner just moves

Considering he's 6'10 and only an inch shorter than Karlovic, he moves damn well for a big guy. Compared to the other tall guys his movement isn't as good as theirs but as I said, he's 6'10 and a few inches taller than them.

DelPo's taken the first on a tiebreak.

Plenty 6'10 guys rocking the NBA, Ice Hockey, and various other sports move damn well. Isner plods where others glide.

Talk of chances at the USO, and of Rafa and Nole, got me thinking and I have to say that - in spite of Rafa's more aggressive game, I still think that the biggest variable is Nole's form.  I do not think Rafa plays that much better than he did in 2011 but Nole certainly plays far worse.  Here is some "evidence" to back up my claim:

Rafa came back in early February, so let's compare Rafa's and Nole's records from February through The Canadian Open in 2011 and 2013:

	---2011---	---2013---
Rafa-Nole	0-5	2-1
Rafa-others	44-2	46-2
Nole-others	41-1	34-5

Rafa's losses to "others":
2011 - Tsonga, Dodig
2013 - Zeballos, Darcis

Nole's losses to "others":
2011 - Federer
2013 - Del Potro, Haas, Dimitrov, Berdych, Murray

To me this suggests that on an absolute level (as measured in performances against "others") Rafa is doing about as well this year as he was doing in 2011.  Nole, on the other hand, is doing far worse this year, and I believe that is the main reason why their H2H dynamic changed.

So, the way I see it, it is all still largely in Nole's hands - if he can rediscover something resembling his 2011 form, he will likely be fine.  However, can he do it?  Or was it just a longish purple patch lasting about seven months in 2011 that he will never be able to get close to again?  I am slowly starting to lean towards the latter.

I am yet to see a genuinely Intriguing Isner match. They are all intriguing in that, "why wont he go away" manner. Kudos to him for his fight, though.

JIsner takes the 2nd on, surprisingly, a tiebreak. The 3rd surely has to go to one too?

kingraf wrote:They are all intriguing in that, "why wont he go away" manner.

Oh my, that so accurately describes how I feel about it too.

Credit to John Isner. After all Juan Martin Del Potro is often spoke of on here as strong contender for further slam wins so Isner doing well to hang in there.

JIsner's now just 16 service points from the final....

DelPo's inability to land a first serve when it mattered may well have cost him this match. I can't see him breaking JIsner now.

Meanwhile in Winston-Salem, Dominic Inglot is playing his doubles partner Treat-Conrad Huey in singles!! Dom looks like he's away to win the match, serving for it at 5-3.

Huge from DelPo. He saves 2 BPs to hold at 4-1* to keep himself just about in the match.

What the.... I turned this off after Delpo broke to lead 7/6, 5/3...

How did this happen?

This annoys me. I would have quite enjoyed Rafa v Delpo. But Isner... I'm sorry, fair play to the guy for maximising what he's got but he is awful to watch.

How much are Rafa's shorts retailing for at the Nike store? Ive tried but I cant spot it on the net.

Here we are. If Berdych doesn't win here on his best surface in favourable conditions he'll never beat Nadal.

The Special Juan wrote:Here we are.  If Berdych doesn't win here on his best surface in favourable conditions he'll never beat Nadal.

Is that not kind of expected?  Is he supposed to beat him again?

Wouldnt hold my breath TSJ. It seems enough for Berdcych to say "I was once on court with Rafael Nadal", to his children

Wow, Nadal misses an overhead. Has that ever happened before?

summerblues wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:Here we are.  If Berdych doesn't win here on his best surface in favourable conditions he'll never beat Nadal.

Is that not kind of expected?  Is he supposed to beat him again?

No but if there was ever a chance to beat him, it's right here right now.

kingraf wrote:Wouldnt hold my breath TSJ. It seems enough for Berdcych to say "I was once on court with Rafael Nadal", to his children

I suppose so. I just hope he plays a better match than he does against Novak.

Seems Berdych is here to rumble

Has Nadal dropped a service point yet?

No

This has all the makings of a 7-6 6-2 win for Nadal.

This first set is passing by quickly

The Special Juan wrote:DelPo's inability to land a first serve when it mattered may well have cost him this match.  I can't see him breaking JIsner now.

Meanwhile in Winston-Salem, Dominic Inglot is playing his doubles partner Treat-Conrad Huey in singles!!  Dom looks like he's away to win the match, serving for it at 5-3.

It's one of the interesting things about ATP events in the week before a slam. Those between 100-250 generally attempt to qualify for the slam, so the qualifiers are usually quite weak at the ATP event.

Main draw might get a bit weaker if Isner and Berdych face-off in the final here and then withdraw from Winston-Salem.

Nadal's serve is pretty much in Beast Mode

Berdy lucky to scrape through that game....2 baseline balls.

ryan86 wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:DelPo's inability to land a first serve when it mattered may well have cost him this match.  I can't see him breaking JIsner now.

Meanwhile in Winston-Salem, Dominic Inglot is playing his doubles partner Treat-Conrad Huey in singles!!  Dom looks like he's away to win the match, serving for it at 5-3.

It's one of the interesting things about ATP events in the week before a slam. Those between 100-250 generally attempt to qualify for the slam, so the qualifiers are usually quite weak at the ATP event.

Main draw might get a bit weaker if Isner and Berdych face-off in the final here and then withdraw from Winston-Salem.

Berdy's the defending champion too isn't he? That could set up another first-time ATP title winner if he and Isner don't enter.

I thought it was Isner, but I might be confusing it with the time he beat Benneteau.

Checking, Isner beat Berdych last year and only Benoit Paire of the seeds does not have a title.

Boom! Just like that, Nadal serving to take the set. His serve has been a bedrock last two weeks.

ryan86 wrote:I thought it was Isner, but I might be confusing it with the time he beat Benneteau.

Checking, Isner beat Berdych last year and only Benoit Paire of the seeds does not have a title.

Oh that was it. I remember Berdych being in the final and thought he won.

Has Berdych ever played a match where he hasn't moaned at the umpire about something?

Found the shorts! Time to make an online acquisition.

Trivia:  who was the last player to sweep Canada, Cincinnati and the USO in the same year?

Federer? 2006?

kingraf wrote:Federer? 2006?

Nope, Federer never did it.

kingraf, do you think Nadal stands too far back to return serve?

McEnroe 84?

Yeah I just researched it. Flumoxed then.

ryan86 wrote:McEnroe 84?

No, that is too far back (not sure if Mac did it).

Lendl?

TSJ - In short, no. He is probably good enough to come in closer, but I dont know if that suits his patterns of play, which is Submission by attrition.

No, not Lendl either. Hint: don't need to go that far back.

Sampras?