Djokovic IS still the #1 player despite his recent run

Although Nadal is leading the race (and could widen the gap further today) and it could be argued he has been the best player since returning to the tour. The problem with this analysis is it doesn't reflect the 52 week nature of the rankings system, where a player needs to show consistency and remain healthy to compete on the tour week in week out.

After all if we look at the recent slams;
US open '12: Nadal (withdrawn due to injury), Djokovic (Finalist)
Aus open '13: Nadal (withdrawn due to injury), Djokovic (winner)
French open '13: Nadal (winner), Djokovic (semi-finalist)
Wimbledon '13: Nadal (tanked first round), Djokovic (Finalist)

So what does everyone think? Do you agree we should go with who we FEEL is the top player (Nadal seems to be the flavour of the month, with his career best hard court run) or go with the rankings system. I feel the rankings do not lie, while I appreciate Nadal may well soon overhaul Djokovic

Over 12 months, Djokovic is number 1. This however, is largely built upon a stellar last quarter of 2012. It's not particularly reflective of the present.

In the here and now, Rafa is clearly the world's best player.

If Rafa played Novak today, Rafa would start as a definite favourite.

Literally, yes Novak is #1.
But no slam finals and 1 title since end of January reveal a different picture.

Nadal...you say flavour of the month, or is it flavour of the year since March? (Wimb blip aside)

No flies on you mate...

World Rankings per system in place, based on 12 months rolling ranking, Djokovic IS World No 1. He's there because based on his performance over that time period he has earned it, and is deserving of it.

If/when, that same system has someone else as World No 1, so be it.

Rafa's having an amazing 2013 so far, sure; but July through December with no play, means in last 12 months......and so continuing congrats! to Djokovic for currently being the World's No Ranked Player. But don't take your eyes off the ball for too long just now - things are about to get very interesting with "Flushing" at hand...

..ok, am sure someone will come back with a crack at Djokovic being the No Ranked Player! Hardly - obviously No 1 ranked - typo!

USO will reveal all.

Well, Djoko is the #1 player, and I dont think anyone is disputing that. But, Rafa is in rare touch at the moment. A win at Queens, and he would have taken two Slams out of three entered, along with at least four, probably five, Masters titles. If he wins USO, I dont think there is anything wrong with saying Rafa is the best player in the World, even if Djoko, barring a calamity will still be #1. The ranking system quite rightly rewards consistency, and Djokovic has been nothing if not uber consistent. Therefore he quite rightly deserves to be #1.

lydian wrote:Literally, yes Novak is #1.
But no slam finals and 1 title since end of January reveal a different picture.

I know his performance in the Wimbledon final was pretty forgettable, but let's not actually forget that he was in it! 

And I'm pretty sure Monte Carlo was not in January!

Not that I'm claiming he's currently anywhere near Rafa.

Two ways of looking at matters:

1. Nadal's a level above everyone else on hard courts and should walk the US title;

2. Nadal's had to work very hard to win both Masters, has knees that allegedly suffer on hard courts and will have played 4 out of 6 weeks by the US open final. In contrast, his main challengers have demonstrated limited interest in these events and will be far stronger for the slam.

Personally, I'd still make Novak favourite for the US title but I think Rafa has more or less sewn up the ye1 ranking with this run.

BS - I think you are giving Andy and Novak an easy ride by saying they have limited interest in these tournaments. They're just not playing well enough. I don't think that has much to with how much they care, especially in Novak's case.

Dont quite take the Nadal has struggled angle myself. Dropped three sets in nine matches. One to the de facto #1, the other to a very (Very) game Federer. Make no mistake his been pretty dominant last two weeks. I also cant imagine Nole taking a limited interest to his match with Rafa, which he lost. Murray has seemed a tad "meh", but thats not to say he will arrive at Flushing Meadows in Supa Sayian III mode.

Novak might have played better if he didn't care! He might not have choked so many big points away!

Agree HM, think that was as much a factor as Isner's play. Had it been a match in another situation he may have been able to lift through his "less than usual" level if play. He wanted it that badly, pressure invoking for sure! History for another year.

Will be interesting to see if he can claim RG and Cincinnati at some point. Winning all four majors is tantamount to joining the "select" greats of the game. His record is already incredible and he has a good 5 years one would imagine, but who knows?

Also, purple patch aside - I think that with the US Open, a Major - with Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray - it's not quite so "form dependent" with these players. All of them are capable of having an off day if playing well up to that point; also playing into form. Just feel it doesn't mean quite as much, having perfect form coming in.

Guess we'll see soon enuff!

He hasn't struggled but it's still tough work to win Canada and Cinci b2b. It's 10 years since anyone won both masters and the US Open. I think it's highly unlikely Novak will lose to someone like Isner in two weeks time. He will be in the SF - its a question of what his mentality will be when he gets there.

As for Murray, I've no idea now he will play in FM but I'd pretty much guarantee he will be fighting a lot harder to avoid defeat than he has in these events.

On paper Djoko is the no.1 but we all know it will change in few weeks outside injury to Rafa, which ofcourse is possible, so yes Djoko the paper no.1 at the moment but its Rafa the hottest player on court every body fear to play at the moment.

If you provide the option to most players on which side of the draw they would like to be most would prefer to be on Djoko's draw instead of Rafa's draw.

lydian wrote:USO will reveal all.

Not if an outsider wins it.

At the moment, I would have Djokovic as the #1 player.

Nadal won their last meeting on hard, but Djokovic won their previous four. In my opinion Djokovic would start as the favourite on a hard court if they played tomorrow.

At RG was mighty close to a Djokovic win that would have meant total dominance on all surfaces. Rafa won their last 2 slam meeting because they were on clay, but Djokovic won the previous 3 on other surfaces.

Other thing is Murray is reigning US Open and Olympics and Wimbledon champion, and if he wins the US Open he will be the #1 in most people's minds. In fact whoever of the top 3 wins the US Open is #1 in my mind. Nicely set up then.

Novak hasn't been the same since his loss to Delpo in Indian Wells when he lost from a winning position, something that had not happened to him in a very long time. (don't really count the Querry match) That must have affected his confidence, had he won that match he probably would have played Rafa and probably won at that point in time, the trajectories of their season could/would have been very different, after that he has continually lost close and big matches, apart from that wonder display against Rafa in Monte Carlo

Henman Bill wrote:

lydian wrote:USO will reveal all.

Not if an outsider wins it.

At the moment, I would have Djokovic as the #1 player.

Nadal won their last meeting on hard, but Djokovic won their previous four. In my opinion Djokovic would start as the favourite on a hard court if they played tomorrow.

At RG was mighty close to a Djokovic win that would have meant total dominance on all surfaces. Rafa won their last 2 slam meeting because they were on clay, but Djokovic won the previous 3 on other surfaces.

Other thing is Murray is reigning US Open and Olympics and Wimbledon champion, and if he wins the US Open he will be the #1 in most people's minds. In fact whoever of the top 3 wins the US Open is #1 in my mind. Nicely set up then.

 

As refreshing as that would be, it's been awhile since that happened!

Dont know how to quote yet :s
Posting from my phone
Lydian: "Literally, yes Novak is #1.
But no slam finals and 1 title since end of January reveal a different picture.

Nadal...you say flavour of the month, or is it flavour of the year since March? (Wimb blip aside)"

Okay so I've understated Nadal's run with the flavour of the month comment :P

I do think my overall point stands though, over the last 52 weeks Djokovic has been more consistent right? I'd still favour Djokovic on a hardcourt.

Though I'll be the first to admit Nadal's season has been stellar and barring injury he does look like he will be taking the #1 spot. Assuming he continues in this vein of form of course

Rankings-wise Djokovic is No.1 but form wise he certainly isn't in the form of world No.1.

Since winning the Australian Open a the start of the year his form has dipped. He has lost matches that he wasn't losing in 2011 and 2012 from winning positions and against opponents you wouldn't have expected to beat him. Whether it is burn-out, a crisis in confidence or a longish run of bad form I don't know but he certainly has lost the iron man type image.

Rafa, on the other hand, has gone in the opposite direction in that he started back from a lengthy injury and everyone held their breath whether he'd breakdown injured again. However, he stitched together a run of form (barring Wimbledon) that beggars belief and is certainly in the best form of any player in the world at the moment.

^^ I can agree with that, in the form factor he's not the best right now BUT what do think will happen at the US open should Djokovic and Nadal meet in the final (the only way they could actually meet now that Nadal's #2)?

I am pretty sure they won't meet in the Final. However, if they did it would be tough to call. That may not make sense so let me explain.

If Novak makes the final there is a decent chance he will have beaten Murray in the semi and would mean he is in good form and restored some of that confidence so his chances of a win would have been lifted. It would also depend on the run to the final that Rafa gets - if he gets a straight forward run to the final with no marathons then he should be physically ready but I am pensive as winning best of five set matches are more strenuous and more stressful for that knee so we will have to wait and see what happens.

Wait and see indeed. IF they did meet it would be too tough to call, but I do think I'd still give a wafer thin edge to Djokovic.

By outsider I mean anyone other than Nadal, Djokovic and Murray.

So even former champions Federer and Del Potro would be outsiders.

One aspect to consider is that Murray seems to use Masters as experimentation exercises these days. Nadal and Murray haven't squared off for almost two years, with Andy improving a lot in that time.

Nadal will probably finish the year as No1, but if Murray retains the US Open I would argue that he'd be the champion player for the year.

Henman Bill wrote:By outsider I mean anyone other than Nadal, Djokovic and Murray.

So even former champions Federer and Del Potro would be outsiders.

I'm not so sure, HB. For some reason, in my mind the USO this year seems to be quite open. A few players have looked good on HC this year, and with a favourable draw we could see some upsets being doled out. Obviously the top 3 are favourites, but I have a sneaking suspicion that we could see an outsider in the final, at the very least.

Admittedly, little basis for that other than instinct, but hey ho

USO is a funny one this year.

Rafa is in hot form and, I think, starts as a clear favourite.

My feeling is that Novak and Andy are vulnerable to a player like Del Potro, Berdych, maybe even Isner. A player who may not be a favourite to win but can be red hot on a given day. Rafa seems to be able to ride these threats a little better, largely perhaps because his lefty top spin is a difficult match up for so many.

I have to say though that the combination of Rafa's brilliant form and Novak & Andy's rather tepid form has rather drained my excitement for this tournament.  It all feels a bit predictable.

Is Murray's 'tepid' form any less tepid than going into the US Open last year though? True Novak's form has dipped but perhaps (just perhaps) others are emerging such as Del Potro. As for it all feeling a bit predictable I can't see how that can be said. It is not like the top four are all guaranteed to even make the semis - any of them could miss out for differing reasons in my opinion.

I see the official ATP still has not updated their rolling year rankings. It's almost as if they want to delay posting the message that Fed has slipped to 7th - his lowest position since, oooh, 1869.
Rog must at least be thankful that Rafa, who has already qualified for the year-end championships, is hoovering up all the big points at the moment which helps Fed make London as a top eight guy.

Also helping Roger's cause is the injury to Jo Tsonga as he lies 8th in the Race to London just behind Roger.

Yes, the JWT situation has been a help, as has Stan Wawrinka's recent poor run. Fed should still make London. It will be a bit weird without him.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Is Murray's 'tepid' form any less tepid than going into the US Open last year though?

Last year he at least had the excuse that he'd come pretty much straight from the Olympics. This year he's had plenty of hard court training time, so I find his recent results more surprising.

CaledonianCraig wrote: As for it all feeling a bit predictable I can't see how that can be said. It is not like the top four are all guaranteed to even make the semis - any of them could miss out for differing reasons in my opinion.

It's because I think there are really only two, perhaps three players capable of beating A-game Rafa: Novak, Andy and possibly a red hot JMDP.

Those guys need to be at their best to do it and I don't think any of them are near their best. JMDP is producing individual excellent performance but is ridiculously inconsistent. Novak is choking every big moment he faces. Andy is only cooking on about gas mark 4.

HM Murdoch wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Is Murray's 'tepid' form any less tepid than going into the US Open last year though?

Last year he at least had the excuse that he'd come pretty much straight from the Olympics. This year he's had plenty of hard court training time, so I find his recent results more surprising.

CaledonianCraig wrote: As for it all feeling a bit predictable I can't see how that can be said. It is not like the top four are all guaranteed to even make the semis - any of them could miss out for differing reasons in my opinion.

It's because I think there are really only two, perhaps three players capable of beating A-game Rafa: Novak, Andy and possibly a red hot JMDP.

Those guys need to be at their best to do it and I don't think any of them are near their best. JMDP is producing individual excellent performance but is ridiculously inconsistent. Novak is choking every big moment he faces. Andy is only cooking on about gas mark 4.

Hopefully Andy turns up the Gas mark, Djokovic steadies ship, Del potro doest keel over in his lethargic sort of way to a journeyman, Grand pa turns up, and Nadal keeps it going...

Is that too much to ask

Mafaveli wrote:Hopefully Andy turns up the Gas mark, Djokovic steadies ship, Del potro doest keel over in his lethargic sort of way to a journeyman, Grand pa turns up, and Nadal keeps it going...

Is that too much to ask

Ha! No, I think that's the bare minimum we should be demanding!

OK, I'll be reasonable and settle for any 4 of those 5...

This is getting hilarious. The same naive optimism is occurring now like it did 2 months ago - it's like groundhog day.

So Rafa is unstoppable following a tie break win over John Isner and close match over Novak at Montreal and of course his Wimbledon, er, performance?

Could you imagine the stick the likes myself and CC would have got, in 2009, we'd stated the same about Murray and at least he actually reached the previous Slam SF

Until Rafa proves himself away from the dirt, over five sets, he is 3rd favourite behind Novak and Andy and I'm sure he'd agree

I'm suspicious of his inability to beat a hard hitter over five sets and the toll than might take. As people were always fond of reminding us Murray watchers, slams are different.

And Rafa hasn't won a non clay one for three years

banbrotam wrote:So Rafa is unstoppable following a tie break win over John Isner and close match over Novak at Montreal and of course his Wimbledon, er, performance?

Hard court matches this season: played 15, won 15. Having faced plenty of good players, including the world number 1 along the way.

Last 4 hard court slam entered: 1 win, 2 runner ups.

I'm amazed people don't have him as the favourite!

banbrotam wrote:This is getting hilarious. The same naive optimism is occurring now like it did 2 months ago - it's like groundhog day.

So Rafa is unstoppable following a tie break win over John Isner and close match over Novak at Montreal and of course his Wimbledon, er, performance?

Could you imagine the stick the likes myself and CC would have got, in 2009, we'd stated the same about Murray and at least he actually reached the previous Slam SF

Until Rafa proves himself away from the dirt, over five sets, he is 3rd favourite behind Novak and Andy and I'm sure he'd agree

I'm suspicious of his inability to beat a hard hitter over five sets and the toll than might take. As people were always fond of reminding us Murray watchers, slams are different.

And Rafa hasn't won a non clay one for three years

I dont think its quite as impressive as Novaks 5 masters, as in my opinion all of the big 4 were playing much better than they are now across all tournaments. Rafa as awesome as he has been, hasn't had the challenge Novak had in 2011. Novak was beating Murray and Rafa, or Rafa and Roger most tournaments to get victory, that hasn't been the case for Rafa.

Novaks 2011:

Aus Open beats Federer and Murray

Indian Wells beats Federer and Nadal

Miami beats Nadal

Madrid beats Nadal

Rome beats Murray and Nadal

Wimbledon beats Tsonga and Nadal

US Open beats Federer and Nadal

Aus Open 2012 beats Murray and Nadal

You look at that and maybe its not a surprise he isn't quite as steely as he was, that must break any man knowing what you have to go through!

He's won two hardcourt tournaments in a row, that is very impressive no?

CAS - good points. I don't see Rafa as playing much better this year than he did in 2011. All that went wrong for him 2011 was Novak. He was generally beating everyone else.

Novak has definitely dropped a level and at Montreal there were signs that Rafa has now got his tactics right for when he plays him.

Although I see Novak's results the other way to you. If he's shown in the past how well he can play under pressure, why has he suddenly started messing it up? He should be battle-hardened not battle-damaged!

HM Murdoch wrote:CAS - good points. I don't see Rafa as playing much better this year than he did in 2011. All that went wrong for him 2011 was Novak. He was generally beating everyone else.

Novak has definitely dropped a level and at Montreal there were signs that Rafa has now got his tactics right for when he plays him.

Although I see Novak's results the other way to you. If he's shown in the past how well he can play under pressure, why has he suddenly started messing it up? He should be battle-hardened not battle-damaged!

I said it on another thread, I honestly think the loss to Delpo at Indian Wells really shocked him, he hadn't lost from a winning position since probably the 2010 French Open! He is a human being, and even that invincibility feeling must have even eroded ever so slightly. (Dont count Sam Querry match!) That feeling of, "I actually can lose a close match!" Even all the wins he had theres no way even the greatest of champions dont have the slight seed of doubt in a close match..."I lost my last one." Then it just like that, it becomes a habit.


Great stat on Sky, they said in 2011 Novak won 56 percent of points (thought it would be higher) in 2013, he has won 55 percent of points! 1 percent difference! Thats all it takes

I agree with you Rafa isn't playing better than ever, he just hasn't got the same Novak in his way

CAS wrote:Great stat on Sky, they said in 2011 Novak won 56 percent of points (thought it would be higher) in 2013, he has won 55 percent of points! 1 percent difference! Thats all it takes

That is a good stat. I would suspect that the 1% were all big points!

I don't think this nervousness is a new thing for Novak. I did a thread back in 2012 about how often Novak was double faulting under pressure.
https://www.606v2.com/t33886-lies-damned-lies-and-statistics-novak-s-2012

Lo and behold, a year later, we have the same problem!

Nadal has upped his level and simultaneously Novak has not for whatever reason responded and has started to get tight in big match situations. I think this is a bit of a psychological hangover from his back to back tough losses to Nadal at RG where Nadal upped his level at the big moments and Novak failed to respond. Right now in a big match I would favor Murray or Nadal over Djoko because he seems to be in a bit of mini-slump. He pulled out of similar situation last year by getting to finals of the USO and sweeping almost every title in the indoor campaign. I think he needs a win over Murray or Nadal in a big setting to sort of regain his mojo.

But it is quite clear that Nadal is the best player in the world right now.

It won't be of any consolation to Novak, but it has of course taken a wholly exceptional streak from Rafa to put his Number One rank at risk.

Since Novak regained the top spot from Federer late last year, nobody other than Rafa has been able to win enough matches to threaten toppling him, and of course Andy will soon be under pressure to defend maximum points at the USO.

Rafa's 2013 highly impressive season to date has been remarkably close to Novak's own stellar year of 2011.

Novak W/L stats 2011 post-Cincy*  =  57/4  93.4%

Rafa   W/L stats 2013 post-Cincy*  =  53/3  94.6%

*ie up to and inc. Cincy

It's worth pointing out that Novak has NOT declined dramatically since 2012, when he had figures of 54/10 post-Cincy (84.4%), compared to 44/8 for 2013 post-Cincy (84.6%)

It was always going to be a monumental ask for Novak to maintain his 2011 level. But if Rafa had not come storming back in the way he has done, Novak would have been pretty much guaranteed to finish 2013 as Number One. And indeed may still do so - even if the year-end gap is perhaps not as comfortable as he once thought it might be ..........

socal1976 wrote:But it is quite clear that Nadal is the best player in the world right now.

If he wins the US, then yes. Otherwise the jury's out.

I continue to be puzzled by this great celebration of a player who hasn't won a slam away from clay for 3 years

Yes, Nadal looks dangerous - but most of those who made the same optimistic mistake before Wimby are doing it again

It's not as though he's dominating everyone, say in straight sets, 2 and 2. If Isner can take him to two tie breaks over 3 sets then over seven rounds of 5 sets Rafa has many dangers to overcome

Rafa against any of the hard hitters in R16, will be a harder match for him as opposed to his two other Top 3 rivals. Simply because it's new territory for Rafa since his shock Wimby defeats

Fair comments banbrotam.

I do stand by all the praise I have been showering on Nadal just recently - not least given how long he was out of the game and hence lacking competitive match practice ; but yes, you're right ... he has been beating opponents rather than totally dominating them.

The US Open will, as you say, be VERY significant.

Don't get me wrong, I'm impressed. Cincy a fast hard court was particularly significant - but I think 5 sets could show some of Rafa's relative flaws on hard courts

banbrotam wrote:This is getting hilarious. The same naive optimism is occurring now like it did 2 months ago - it's like groundhog day.

So Rafa is unstoppable following a tie break win over John Isner and close match over Novak at Montreal and of course his Wimbledon, er, performance?

Could you imagine the stick the likes myself and CC would have got, in 2009, we'd stated the same about Murray and at least he actually reached the previous Slam SF

Until Rafa proves himself away from the dirt, over five sets, he is 3rd favourite behind Novak and Andy and I'm sure he'd agree

I'm suspicious of his inability to beat a hard hitter over five sets and the toll than might take. As people were always fond of reminding us Murray watchers, slams are different.

And Rafa hasn't won a non clay one for three years

What a bizarre post. How can you compare Murray 2009 to Rafa 2013. 12-0 should tell you about the difference in pedigree.

What more does Rafa have to do put himself above Murray in the favourites' stakes?

He's won 3 out of 3 HC masters since his return. That's much better than Murray.

He has 2 hardcourt slams. Ditto

He is the leader in tournament wins and ranking points this year. Ditto.

Most importantly - he is a better player than Murray.

As for the best of 5 arguement; Rafa is LESS vulnerable over BO5 than BO3. Do you really see Murray outlasting him if it came down to a war of attrition?

 

emancipator

emancipator wrote:As for the best of 5 arguement; Rafa is LESS vulnerable over BO5 than BO3. Do you really see Murray outlasting him if it came down to a war of attrition?

Yes. After all Murray is better than he was, but still holds a 2-2 record over Rafa on hard court Slams

I realise that Murray is only some plucky newcomer, but I still give him more than a chance  

banbrotam wrote:

emancipator wrote:As for the best of 5 arguement; Rafa is LESS vulnerable over BO5 than BO3. Do you really see Murray outlasting him if it came down to a war of attrition?

Yes. After all Murray is better than he was, but still holds a 2-2 record over Rafa on hard court Slams

I realise that Murray is only some plucky newcomer, but I still give him more than a chance  

I also give him a decent shot but I give Rafa a better shot.

And he's not a newcomer - he's been on tour for 8 years.

 

emancipator

ps - splattering your posts with rolling eyes emoticons doesn't add any weight to your arguement.