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Djokovic v Nadal Final - Live

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Who Will Win

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Total Votes : 18
 
 
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Post by Henman Bill Sun 8 Sep 2013 - 10:56

First topic message reminder :

*Now Live Final Discussion Here*

I am quite looking forward to the final at the moment. Opinions were mixed about their last gruelling meeting here, which made their US Open career head to head 1-1, but I personally thought it was their best match. The faster court encourages even defensive players to try a few aggressive shots, and the rivalry between the two is also in better balance than before, than when Djokovic was dominating it. We used to talk about Djok in Rafa’s head, mentally dominating, it’s not quite so clear cut now Rafa has a win on hard and won their last slam meeting, admittedly on clay and only just.

To my mind, whoever wins this is #1. Whoever wins it will be the only player with 2 slams in the calendar year. If Djokovic wins it he will be able to point to the official rankings, holding both hard court slams as well as the world tour finals, being perhaps a net touch away from the French Open as well, and a Wimbledon final.

If Rafa wins he will be clearly the best player in 2013, in both masters series (5-1 in such tournament wins vs Djokovic in 2013) as well as slams, and will be second in the rankings purely because of time out through to injury. He will be locker room #1 with the official rankings just needing some time to catch up to the truth. Djokovic cannot realistically claim to be the locker room #1 if he has only won the least important slam in the last 2 full years.

The rankings battle is now being engaged in terms of total weeks at number 1 as well, with Djokovic on course to catch Rafa up in a few weeks (both have about 100, Djokovic just under, Rafa just over).

10 Reasons Why Djokovic will win tomorrow:
1. The faster hard court should suit Djokovic a little more as he is relatively more aggressive – the fast speed makes it that bit harder for Nadal to chase down forehands struck out wide from the middle of the court, for instance.
2. Rafa hasn’t beaten him in a non-clay slam since 2010. Djokovic has come out on top in last three non-clay slam meetings.
3. The better backhand and the 2 hander response to Rafa’s high, spinny shots.
4. He is the number one player of the last 12 months.
5. His best on a hard court is better than anyone’s since 2011 - he has won 3 hard court slams since Rafa won one, and has a career total of 5 hard court slams compared to only 2 for Rafa.
6. He has often worked Rafa out tactically in the rivalry.
7. When Djokovic gets behind or has match points against him, he gets even better. The stadium of “the shot” could inspire again.
8. Djokovic very nearly beat him at the French Open, with the change of surface, Djokovic should be able to convert that into a victory.
9. New (since 2011) Djokovic leads the head to head 8-5. Results before then are when he was a lesser player.
10. Djokovic leads the career hard court head to head 11-6. Even the old, pre-peak Djokovic tended to beat peak Rafa on hard court at least half the time.

10 Reasons Why Nadal will win tomorrow:
1. He has won their last two slam meetings.
2. The better forehand.
3. Djokovic’s smash still slightly looks dodgy to me even though it hasn’t been exposed yet in this tournament, just one or two lost points can be costly in a tight match. It cost him last time, and he still hasn’t fixed it. You can bet Rafa will test it.
4. He is the number one player of 2013.
5. Nadal leads 21–15 in the rivalry. In Grand Slams, Nadal leads 7–3. In best-of-five matches, Nadal leads 8–3.
6. Rafa is much more the form player, having not lost on hard court this season.
7. He won their last head to head meeting on a hard court.
8. He has lost only one set on his way to the final, while Djokovic has last three. 6-7 is his worst set, but Djokovic’s losses were 2-6, 3-6 and 3-6 again.
9. Rafa had the easier semi final (although he did play second), so may have a little more energy for a 5-hour marathon.
10. Rafa has won double the number of slams in his career that Djokovic has (12-6).

Bookmakers are making Rafa the 60/40 or 55/45 favourite, but I am not sure about that, I think it is more like 50/50 and Djokovic’s hard court record and recent years head to head still counts for a lot.


Last edited by Henman Bill on Mon 9 Sep 2013 - 22:43; edited 2 times in total

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Post by kingraf Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 0:56

Djokovic really up against it now. He needs to get hot hot again ASAP
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Post by ChequeredJersey Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 0:56

Nah, unfortunately it will go to 5
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Post by Henman Bill Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 0:57

No - BELIEVE!

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Post by ALPanorak Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 0:59

kingraf wrote:For all those who like me have sacrificed MNF to see this streetfifght, Eagles are pimp slapping Washington.
I'm watching both and as a Redskin fan am not enjoying RG3's return so far...

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Post by invisiblecoolers Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:01

That volley at the net was genius. clap 

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Post by Guest Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:03

MNF Ic is monday night football, in Britain its the weekly monday show for the Scheduled premier league soccer/football match, usually a big one.
For him itll be americas MNF, for american football

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Post by invisiblecoolers Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:06

I guess this is over now, Djoko could not break it again from 0-40. picard 

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Post by invisiblecoolers Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:06

falzy21 wrote:MNF Ic is monday night football, in Britain its the weekly monday show for the Scheduled premier league soccer/football match, usually a big one.
For him itll be americas MNF, for american football
Oh, Thx for clarification clap 

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Post by Henman Bill Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:07

Big match in the UK this week is Tue - Ukraine vs England - biggest match in the group stage for world cup qualification.

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Post by ChequeredJersey Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:07

As I said before, I won't feel truely safe until GSM is called
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Post by kingraf Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:08

I want a compilation of McEnroe comments during Nadal matches. I remember this gem after Nadal slapped Robredo:
"Look at Nadal jumping up and down. Showing complete respect for his opponent"
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Post by kingraf Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:10

is this it?
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Post by invisiblecoolers Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:10

Congrats for the New USO champion since 2011. clap 

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Post by kingraf Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:12

The sad thing is that Nole is losing to a Nadal who iplemented old tactics. The Djoker has regressed, Im afraid.
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Post by Guest Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:15

This is novak... its not done yet

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Post by Henman Bill Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:15

If Nadal wins I think he is doing it on better physical and mental, perhaps by a clear margin on both counts. Djokovic doesn't look like the no 1 player on tour mentally any more. And why isn't he physically as strong as, say, AO 2012?

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Post by kingraf Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:16

Shout out to anyone who found the 11/2 odds on Nadal winning USO immediately after Wimbledon. I didnt take it as I was sure he wasnt in the shape to make any headway.
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Post by kingraf Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:17

Cant count Nole out though, the bet just looks inspired now
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Post by kingraf Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:23

Just seen a statistical break down of the rivalry. Apparently the stats say Rafa in four, but the cycle says Nole in Five. Its not over yet
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Post by invisiblecoolers Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:24

Henman Bill wrote:If Nadal wins I think he is doing it on better physical and mental, perhaps by a clear margin on both counts. Djokovic doesn't look like the no 1 player on tour mentally any more. And why isn't he physically as strong as, say, AO 2012?
Simple reason I can think of is "Natural vs Science"

Nadal is naturally fit and genetically strong, in comparison Nole was artificially made strong like cyborg of Science, its finally taking its toll on Nole I guess, in contrast Nadal doesn't find competing long matches any difficult.

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Post by Henman Bill Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:26

kingraf wrote:Shout out to anyone who found the 11/2 odds on Nadal winning USO immediately after Wimbledon. I didnt take it as I was sure he wasnt in the shape to make any headway.
At the time people were saying things like he needs to stay off the hard to protect the knees. Djokovic and Murray were clearly the 2 best hard court players and had been in most of the grand slam finals together for a while apart from the French...yes Rafa won Indian Wells but only because Del Potro took out the other 2 for him. At the time, I wouldn't have jumped on those odds to be honest. They looked about fair.

I do wish I'd bet on Murray to win Wimbledon, publically tipping him on the forum but not getting round to putting the bet on, annoying.

By the way, a lot of people shouting out today in the crowd, too many.

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Post by invisiblecoolers Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:29

The way Jelena Ristic shouted "Come on" was like "Come on Djoko lets go home quick". Very Happy 

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Post by Henman Bill Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:29

For some reason Djokovic has been tired today from about set 2 onwards, and not even a super saturday then sunday final excuse to offer.

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Post by kingraf Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:31

Not too often do I agree with IC... but on this matter I do. I think Nole had a placebo effect in 2011, the body felt better, and because the body felt better, the mind could go to unchartered waters. In Australia, with the feet bleeding etc, I think he realised there was a wall, and no amount of gluten-free food could tear it down. Since then, I think he's feared running into it again.

In comparison, Nadal, for all the nice platitudes, and wholesome family, is really just a sick puppy. He loves running into that wall, enjoys the suffering, so to speak.

In essence, Nole is a tennis player who needed to learn to fight. Nadal is a fighter, whose medium is a racquet.
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Post by kingraf Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:32

Serving for it!!!
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Post by Guest Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:33

But there it is. A hard court slam. STILL undefeated on hc, the clay court specialist

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Post by kingraf Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:34

I really thought Nole would save Championship point, at least twice...
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Post by Guest Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:34

I wonder how our old friend is doing?

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Post by Henman Bill Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:36

HM Murdoch wrote:Definitive moment of the match. Novak to lose serve next game.
HM Murdoch called this at 4-5, on serve, in the 3rd, after Novak just failed to break after a long game with some opportunities at 4-4.

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Post by kingraf Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:36

The first three sets were ridiculous. Sadly like all great movies... the third installment has failed to live up to expectations. Nole was decent for eight games, and hammered either side of them, really.
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Post by ChequeredJersey Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:37

Very Happy well played both men. I was worried about Rafa after Wimbledon. I've rarely been so glad to be wrong
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Post by ChequeredJersey Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:38

kingraf wrote:The first three sets were ridiculous. Sadly like all great movies... the third installment has failed to live up to expectations. Nole was decent for eight games, and hammered either side of them, really.
The Good, the Bad and the ugly is pretty awesome
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Post by invisiblecoolers Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:38

Noval would have lost even had he won the 3rd set, something was not right with Nole, he certainly gets tired too quick these days, Nole's mind didn't give it away at all and thats why it lasted 4 sets otherwise Djoko from the time the whistle was blown was looking down the barrel physically.

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Post by kingraf Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:39

Sports is a ridiculous thing, isnt it? There is no logical reason for me to feel this happy for a man Ive never met, and yet....


There is a university thesis in this relationship between fans and players.
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Post by Henman Bill Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:40

Nadal now the #1, rankings will need a few weeks or months to catch up to the fact, but it is so. Amazing comeback season for him with 2 slams and 5 masters.

Playing like this on hard, with Federer in poor form (and not even certain or qualifying), Murray too, and Djokovic now more beatable on hard, this year looks to be one of his best opportunities at winning the world tour finals which should be the major goal for the rest of the season (by the way, Federer will be a dangerous floater there in the group draw assuming he qualifies).

For Nole, some questions to be answered now, a few too many finals lost, needs to rediscover his mojo. May have missed an opportunity in the 5th set at the FO, I just wonder if he could have taken control of the rivalry there.

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Post by ChequeredJersey Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:40

Next stop (well, not quite) and the one that's still missing, WTF.
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Post by ChequeredJersey Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:41

invisiblecoolers wrote:Noval would have lost even had he won the 3rd set, something was not right with Nole, he certainly gets tired too quick these days, Nole's mind didn't give it away at all and thats why it lasted 4 sets otherwise Djoko from the time the whistle was blown was looking down the barrel physically.
I think he is not enjoying being World Number One.
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Post by kingraf Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:42

That moment Nole and Rafa shared is imo, the defining moment of sports in 2013. Right up there with Flintoff consoling Brett Lee, for the greatest sporting images of the 21st century. Djokovic goes up in my estimations every time.
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Post by ChequeredJersey Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:44

kingraf wrote:That moment Nole and Rafa shared is imo, the defining moment of sports in 2013. Right up there with Flintoff consoling Brett Lee, for the greatest sporting images of the 21st century. Djokovic goes up in my estimations every time.
+1

All class that man
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Post by Guest Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:46

Amazing when you think back to 2007, the Djoker by name, to the man we see now. Hes grown up proper on screen

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Post by invisiblecoolers Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:47

ChequeredJersey wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:Noval would have lost even had he won the 3rd set, something was not right with Nole, he certainly gets tired too quick these days, Nole's mind didn't give it away at all and thats why it lasted 4 sets otherwise Djoko from the time the whistle was blown was looking down the barrel physically.
I think he is not enjoying being World Number One.
Yup, we can put this way the pressure of holding the no.1 for quite sometime took his toll, last time when he lost the No.1 he went on a tear, I guess something similar might happen again.thumbsup 

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Post by Guest Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:53

I feel sky sports coverage has gone downhill a little bit, way cheesier than its felt before

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Post by kingraf Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:56

Nadals serve was only broken four times in USO 2013, bettering his 2010 mark of five
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Post by kingraf Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 1:57

That stupid touch at Roland Garros seems so costly now
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Post by mthierry Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 2:02

Simply too erratic from Djokovic. He was he more aggressive, assertive player but he just made too many errors. And squandering that 3rd set he had in control was scandalous.

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Post by luciusmann Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 2:02

Well done to Nadal, I expected him to win in 3 or 4 and it was an easy win once he weathered the Djoko storm in the 2nd and 3rd sets. All I can say is that Djokovic really had plenty of opportunities in this match, nearly all of them went begging and this match certainly could have gone to 5 sets and if it had, I certainly suspect Djoko could have got the better of Nadal but it never happened.

I can't say I was supporting either player strongly, probably prefered Nadal that little bit more to win after seeing how they played. Nadal played not only well, he also ensured that this wasn't a long, drawn out slug fest of which we've become accustomed to from these two. He put Djoko out of his misery quickly, like a good executioner does Smile.

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Post by LuvSports! Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 2:12

ChequeredJersey wrote:
kingraf wrote:The first three sets were ridiculous. Sadly like all great movies... the third installment has failed to live up to expectations. Nole was decent for eight games, and hammered either side of them, really.
The Good, the Bad and the ugly is pretty awesome
Dont you dare say that about the return of the king!

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Post by kingraf Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 2:16

LS - The sad thing is thats the exact movie I was thinking of whe I typed that the third installments generally suck. I mean, three hours of nothingness
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Djokovic v Nadal Final - Live - Page 5 Empty Re: Djokovic v Nadal Final - Live

Post by mthierry Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 2:16

It's funny for all that's been made of Rafa's new aggression, he won today using pretty much his old tactics. He was better than this in Montreal and Cincinatti but he's not been as aggressive in his last 2 matches against Nole and Gasquet. If he played this way against 2011 Djokovic, it would have ended in tears.

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Djokovic v Nadal Final - Live - Page 5 Empty Re: Djokovic v Nadal Final - Live

Post by mthierry Tue 10 Sep 2013 - 2:18

kingraf wrote:LS - The sad thing is thats the exact movie I was thinking of whe  I typed that the third installments generally suck. I mean, three hours of nothingness
Wash your filthy mouth out. What did you just say about the ROTK?warning 

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