Djokovic v Nadal Final - Live

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*Now Live Final Discussion Here*

I am quite looking forward to the final at the moment. Opinions were mixed about their last gruelling meeting here, which made their US Open career head to head 1-1, but I personally thought it was their best match. The faster court encourages even defensive players to try a few aggressive shots, and the rivalry between the two is also in better balance than before, than when Djokovic was dominating it. We used to talk about Djok in Rafa’s head, mentally dominating, it’s not quite so clear cut now Rafa has a win on hard and won their last slam meeting, admittedly on clay and only just.

To my mind, whoever wins this is #1. Whoever wins it will be the only player with 2 slams in the calendar year. If Djokovic wins it he will be able to point to the official rankings, holding both hard court slams as well as the world tour finals, being perhaps a net touch away from the French Open as well, and a Wimbledon final.

If Rafa wins he will be clearly the best player in 2013, in both masters series (5-1 in such tournament wins vs Djokovic in 2013) as well as slams, and will be second in the rankings purely because of time out through to injury. He will be locker room #1 with the official rankings just needing some time to catch up to the truth. Djokovic cannot realistically claim to be the locker room #1 if he has only won the least important slam in the last 2 full years.

The rankings battle is now being engaged in terms of total weeks at number 1 as well, with Djokovic on course to catch Rafa up in a few weeks (both have about 100, Djokovic just under, Rafa just over).

10 Reasons Why Djokovic will win tomorrow:
1. The faster hard court should suit Djokovic a little more as he is relatively more aggressive – the fast speed makes it that bit harder for Nadal to chase down forehands struck out wide from the middle of the court, for instance.
2. Rafa hasn’t beaten him in a non-clay slam since 2010. Djokovic has come out on top in last three non-clay slam meetings.
3. The better backhand and the 2 hander response to Rafa’s high, spinny shots.
4. He is the number one player of the last 12 months.
5. His best on a hard court is better than anyone’s since 2011 - he has won 3 hard court slams since Rafa won one, and has a career total of 5 hard court slams compared to only 2 for Rafa.
6. He has often worked Rafa out tactically in the rivalry.
7. When Djokovic gets behind or has match points against him, he gets even better. The stadium of “the shot” could inspire again.
8. Djokovic very nearly beat him at the French Open, with the change of surface, Djokovic should be able to convert that into a victory.
9. New (since 2011) Djokovic leads the head to head 8-5. Results before then are when he was a lesser player.
10. Djokovic leads the career hard court head to head 11-6. Even the old, pre-peak Djokovic tended to beat peak Rafa on hard court at least half the time.

10 Reasons Why Nadal will win tomorrow:
1. He has won their last two slam meetings.
2. The better forehand.
3. Djokovic’s smash still slightly looks dodgy to me even though it hasn’t been exposed yet in this tournament, just one or two lost points can be costly in a tight match. It cost him last time, and he still hasn’t fixed it. You can bet Rafa will test it.
4. He is the number one player of 2013.
5. Nadal leads 21–15 in the rivalry. In Grand Slams, Nadal leads 7–3. In best-of-five matches, Nadal leads 8–3.
6. Rafa is much more the form player, having not lost on hard court this season.
7. He won their last head to head meeting on a hard court.
8. He has lost only one set on his way to the final, while Djokovic has last three. 6-7 is his worst set, but Djokovic’s losses were 2-6, 3-6 and 3-6 again.
9. Rafa had the easier semi final (although he did play second), so may have a little more energy for a 5-hour marathon.
10. Rafa has won double the number of slams in his career that Djokovic has (12-6).

Bookmakers are making Rafa the 60/40 or 55/45 favourite, but I am not sure about that, I think it is more like 50/50 and Djokovic’s hard court record and recent years head to head still counts for a lot.

He probs still would have been happy with the season though

ROTK was fine (if in no way deserving of 11 Oscars) except that they utterly ruined the book by omitting the best section Tolkien ever wrote, the Scouring of the Shire

ChequeredJersey wrote:ROTK was fine (if in no way deserving of 11 Oscars) except that they utterly ruined the book by omitting the best section Tolkien ever wrote, the Scouring of the Shire

It was perfectly deserving of every Oscar it won. If anything, the first 2 parts deserved more Oscars. A once in a generation accomplishment was that film.  It was impossible to adapt so many elements of the book into the film. In any case, appreciation for art or cinema is a highly subjective thing.

mthierry wrote:

ChequeredJersey wrote:ROTK was fine (if in no way deserving of 11 Oscars) except that they utterly ruined the book by omitting the best section Tolkien ever wrote, the Scouring of the Shire

It was perfectly deserving of every Oscar it won. If anything, the first 2 parts deserved more Oscars. A once in a generation accomplishment was that film.  It was impossible to adapt so many elements of the book into the film. In any case, appreciation for art or cinema is a highly subjective thing.

The Hobbit is turning out to be a fine one. Tom Bombadil is what I miss the most so far. It would be fantastic to see Peter's visualization of that part.

Congrats to Rafa an amazing performance Novak is simply not good enough right now, well back to the drawing board for him.

kingraf wrote:That moment Nole and Rafa shared is imo, the defining moment of sports in 2013. Right up there with Flintoff consoling Brett Lee, for the greatest sporting images of the 21st century. Djokovic goes up in my estimations every time.

What happened, kingraf? I'd gone to bed by this point!

invisiblecoolers wrote:For me Djoko is the heavy favorite to win the title, after seeing his semi performance I would put it 80-20 to Djoko.

Can't predict the sets however,  might be in 5, but I guess Djoko might do it in 4.

3, 4, or 5 but Djoko wants to win it and will do everything for it, his main trump card is to intimidate Nadal to submission like he did in 2011, if he succeeds in it he wins for sure, otherwise Nadal should win given his superior skills, but Djoko will intimidate Nadal in the finals.

Remind me not to ask you for any betting tips ic.  
Albeit for a set and a half I thought you might just be an incy bincy bit right... But Rafa did what he does best when his back is against the wall.  Im now off for a well earned gloat  

HM, Nadal was quite literally, crying on Djokovic's shoulder. It was such a moving moment. But then again, I sniffle watching a well-done advertisement...

Haha KR.

let me join you in gloating for a moment Haddie

Rafa has done something that the HC legends Federer, Sampras, Agassi, Djokovic and Murray haven't...won the "HC slam season" of Canada, Cincy & USO...to add to his "clay season slams" of MC, Rome, Madrid & French. If he can win AO again then he'll be the only guy to win 2 slams at each event in Open Era.

So that's Roger and Rafa on 13 slams each @ 27 years old...all to play for. Will be interesting to see the next 2-3 years if all stay injury free. Nadal surely has 2-3 more slams in him?

I hope he doesn't now play DC soon just to get the 120 pts he needs to get the #1 ranking. That will come soon enough if he enters Tokyo, Shanghai or Paris and gets to the QF/SF.

You have to admire the mental fortitude of the guy, he just doesn't know when he's beat and just never says die. The score last night belies the struggle of the match...it was nip and tuck right up to early in the 4th. Nadal has raised his game, people may point to Djokovic making more UEs but he's having to against a guy who hits deeper, has a different court positioning and plays with more variance than before. Indeed both played with a lot of variety last night. They have both moved the game on and this is now the defining rivalry. As for Nadal, well not bad for someone labelled a "clay courter" hey?

I think kr whenever they play, whoever wins, they give everything and then some.. they always both look physically and emotionally spent when they play each other... which says something, in my view, about their rivalry. Gladly they can both leave it on the court and the disappointment taken back to the dressing room.

kingraf wrote:HM, Nadal was quite literally, crying on Djokovic's shoulder. It was such a moving moment. But then again, I sniffle watching a well-done advertisement...

Was this in the presentation ceremony? I'll have to watch it back. I'm a sucker for that kind of thing too!

Great result for Rafa. The way he has come back this year has been remarkable. Incredible that he has yet to lose on hard courts.

I don't like Rafa's style of play at all. However, in my eyes he is now the greatest player I have seen. His record over contemporary all time greats is ridiculous and he has always found a way to overcome problems thrown at him by other players. Taking into account the injuries he has suffered, to already have 13 slams is remarkable.

Putting aside my issues about his style of play, it would be great if he could tie the slam record by doing the CYGS next year. That's all that's really missing from his stellar career.

I also don't like his style of play, and the thought of Nadal doing the CYGS quite depressing. It would be an impressive feat though, for sure. I think it's extremely unlikely - possible, of course, but unlikely that nothing or no-one can stop Nadal at slams over the course of a year. It's been talked about for other players before and something has always occurred to prevent it - upsets, rivals improve, injuries etc. Also, I wonder how much of Nadal's surge this year has come from having so much time off and suspect he will won't be at the quite same level next year.

I haven't liked his style of play in the past but I must admit I'm enjoying his recent play a lot more.

His forehand is a thing of monstrous beauty but I've venture that his most amazing shot is the defensive lob. It's insane how often he just gets a flick on a shot from his opponent that looks like a winner and floats it back right onto the baseline. It must drive his opponents crazy!

One thing I've learnt from the last 4 years or so of tennis though, is that whatever is happening in terms of results and whoever is dominating at the end of USO has very little bearing on the who is the top man next year.

2010 sees a dominant Rafa win 3 slams
2011 sees a dominant Novak win 3 slams
2012 sees 4 different slam winners, Fed briefly recapture number 1, the emergence of Andy as a slam winner, Rafa miss half the season with injury and Novak roar home in the final stages to secure a convincing number spot.
2013 has seen a dominant Rafa win 2 slams and Novak rather hit the skids.
I really have no clue whatsoever what might happen in 2014!

Feds had dominating years, nadal has n djokovic, think 2014 will be Murrays big year after refocusing.

I think Murray will win Aus, bout time n djokovic can't do it again surely.

French - nadal

Wimbledon - I can't look past Murray

US - toss up of the three, agree nadal won't be as physically rested next year.

I guess in my girly taste, there's no such thing as "monstrous beauty".

Anyway, the rest of your post -exactly! It could be that the twist for 2014 is that Rafa's 2013 dominance is repeated. Who knows!

I'm interested to know if any Nadal fans think that in order to do the French/Wimbledon double he needs to cut out some of the rest of the clay season - that at age 28 playing full tilt at Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros is just too much.

So we now wait for Djoko v.3? Nadal is on v.4, so he's always a step ahead.

Maybe Murray v.3 will kick ass next year too.

Anyway, great play by Nadal, he has cracked Djoko's play style completely.

Good post HM. Tennis has been predictable in the past few years in that the big 4 have cleaned up. However, the swings and roundabouts between the top guys have been fascinating. Its predictable unpredictability. Also, the fact we have two GOAT contenders who have faced a sustained challenge not just from each other but also from two other guys who may well ultimately be regarded as top 20/30 all-time is incredible.

what was the shared moment between the two you are talking about?

YvonneT wrote:I guess in my girly taste, there's no such thing as "monstrous beauty".

Serena Williams springs to mind for me.

Congratulations to Rafa on winning the US Open - his 13th slam title of his career. Rafa was just too consistently good for Novak from what I seen. Novak got himself into a good position in the third set but all his recent inconsistencies kicked in.

Yes but it wasn't just lost due to inconsistency...by that stage they were nearly 3 hours into the match and the mental + physical strain was taking its toll on Novak. When Novak plays those glorious DTLBH or CCFHs they require absolute precision because he hits so flat...it takes the smallest of variations in stroke production to make the ball go wide, long or into the net. To maintain that level of play for 3-4 hrs is ridiculously difficult. Novak could do it in his Zone of 2011, accompanied by some poorer Nadal tactics, but not anymore. He's having to redline his game these days to stay with Nadal who plays with much greater margin of error due to THAT spin and variety. He can still do it for 1-2 sets but not much more before the mental strain of focus gets to him. Personally I think 2011/early 2012 was great but came at a career price in terms of his own expectation of play and slight burnout when matches go long.

I don't have a problem with Nadal's style of play (of course). Its underrated and misunderstood by too many people from a technical perspective. He's no generic baseline grinder and none of his shots are textbook whatsoever...his stretch-shortened FH, left-dominant BH, Eastern grip volleys and serve are all unique. He uses more variety than most and has loads of different gameplans he can and does execute. If you speak to tennis coaches they all rave about him because they see someone unique. Ok, a few years back he was more formulaic, but not anymore. I personally think he's raised the bar, and will be unlucky if he doesn't go down as the popular labelled "best ever" given the way he's overcome/owned Roger, battled through repeated injuries and pain, and now reversed 0-7 to 6-1 vs. Djokovic (and probably will still dominate the Murray H2H moving forwards - can anyone imagine Murray living with that last night? I dont).

Can't see Rafa winning Wimbledon, certainly not if (and it's not a big if, is it?) he wins RG, especially with his knees and with Murray's game better on grass. But he already has 2 of those, next aim will be getting 2 of every major.

Boris Becker echoed my own thoughts when he said that it has proven in the past that Wimbledon can be Rafa´s undoing as far as his knees go. He has won it twice so he has proven to himself and the tennis world that he can and has done it.. why jeopardize all that he has and all that he has achieved by pushing himself on grass. He has proven this year he didnt need it.  I would rather see a healthy happy Nadal playing like he is than he be forced to take further time out because of the damage he can do when he changes from clay to grass.Albeit he loves Wimbledon and his fans would love to see him do it again Im sure.. but is it worth it ????

Yep CJ, he may even skip that now...but he has 5 finals, 2 titles there so has nothing to prove. But who knows, maybe he'll find a better way of protecting himself...its a very hard event for him to miss. I'm not convinced Murray has a better game on grass vs him but agree its the best surface for Murray - and may be his only real slam shot if Nadal and Djokovic remain HC kings.

Indeed HN, if Rafa could just make it through the 1st week the grass changes completely in week 2 after drying out/wear and tear. But its a big risk...probably better he focuses on the other slams and WTF now...he doesn't need many more Masters for sure!

kingraf wrote:LS - The sad thing is thats the exact movie I was thinking of whe  I typed that the third installments generally suck. I mean, three hours of nothingness

I hate you so much right now!

Nadal has NO chance of the calendar slam next year. That's rather sensationalist bandwagoning after many were already dismissing him post-Wimbledon. The margins between the current top 3 guys is very narrow and other than a Rafa-Murray or Nole-Murray match at Rolando Garros, no match-up on any other slam surface between them has a clear, overwhelming favourite when they're in form. Any of them who gets on top would always have a target on his back and the others would find a way to topple him.

It's been a great year for Rafa and he's been in good health which is fantastic to see. Nole is mentally not at the races right now in these big games. He rides a wave of too many crests and troughs. He did it at the French and at this tournament where he lost his head at key moments. Wimbledon was just a horror show where he didn't even get going.

mthierry wrote:Nadal has NO chance of the calendar slam next year. That's rather sensationalist bandwagoning after many were already dismissing him post-Wimbledon.

I can remember when Nadal had NO chance of beating Federer again at RG...
Then he had NO chance of winning Wimbledon...
Then NO chance of winning a hard court slam...
Then NO chance of winning the fast US Open...
Then NO chance of beating Djokovic...
And only recently NO chance of winning Cinci...

It's odd that he still managed to do all these things despite how many were dismissing his chances

Do you put them on the same page as winning the calender grand slam?

hawkeye wrote:

mthierry wrote:Nadal has NO chance of the calendar slam next year. That's rather sensationalist bandwagoning after many were already dismissing him post-Wimbledon.

I can remember when Nadal had NO chance of beating Federer again at RG...
Then he had NO chance of winning Wimbledon...
Then NO chance of winning a hard court slam...
Then NO chance of winning the fast US Open...
Then NO chance of beating Djokovic...
And only recently NO chance of winning Cinci...

It's odd that he still managed to do all these things despite how many were dismissing his chances

None of those things comes remotely close to the challenge of winning the calendar slam. He had a short 2008-2010 window to achieve it if possible. He has no chance of doing it. There's a greater chance of Dimitrov or Raonic winning a slam next season than that happening.

It would seem Rafa agrees  that he would have little or no chance




NADAL: GRAND SLAM IS IMPOSSIBLE

Even with 10 titles this season, including two Grand Slam and five ATP World Tour Masters 1000 crowns, Rafael Nadal said following his US Open triumph on Monday that it would be impossible to complete the calendar-year Grand Slam.

“To win all four Grand Slams in one year I think today is impossible for anyone,” said the Spaniard. “That's my feeling. We will see, but today the best players are there all the time, so to win a tournament like this you have to win against Roger [Federer], against David [Ferrer], against Andy [Murray], against Novak [Djokovic].

“These players are not losing in the early rounds, so that makes it impossible to be 100 per cent in every tournament. So when your level is a little bit lower, you will lose against these players 100 per cent.”

[quote="mthierry"]

hawkeye wrote:

mthierry wrote:Nadal has NO chance of the calendar slam next year. That's rather sensationalist bandwagoning after many were already dismissing him post-Wimbledon.

I can remember when Nadal had NO chance of beating Federer again at RG...
Then he had NO chance of winning Wimbledon...
Then NO chance of winning a hard court slam...
Then NO chance of winning the fast US Open...
Then NO chance of beating Djokovic...
And only recently NO chance of winning Cinci...

It's odd that he still managed to do all these things despite how many were dismissing his chances

None of those things comes remotely close to the challenge of winning the calendar slam. He had a short 2008-2010 window to achieve it if possible. He has no chance of doing it. There's a greater chance of Dimitrov or Raonic winning a slam next season than that happening.[/quote

I agree it is exceptionally unlikely and I will be surprised if he wins even 3, but I'm not sure the bit in bold is true. Can't see that either are anywhere near close enough to really challenge any of the top players in a match that really matters, never mind several of them

hawkeye wrote:
I can remember when Nadal had NO chance of beating Federer again at RG...
Then he had NO chance of winning Wimbledon...
Then NO chance of winning a hard court slam...
Then NO chance of winning the fast US Open...
Then NO chance of beating Djokovic...

Right, people keep writing him off and never learn do they. I wrote him off a bit in the 2006 Wimbledon. It was only his second appearance there on the grass there, and I think R2 the year before, I thought he could do R4 or QF, but he made a big improvement and got to the final. I didn't write him off after despite many of the moments when people said he was finished due to injury, Djokovic etc.

Really though, he has a point that with the current big 3-4 it is very hard for one player to win them all. I think you have to look at the odds of him winning all 4 and multiply them to get the real odds. Whatever it is, it's low, but not zero.

AO - 30% chance?
FO - 60% chance?
Wimbledon - 25% chance
US Open - 40% chance (this may look high but you have to remember he would be on a stunning, dominating run of 4 slams in a row by the time he got here, so would be the hot favourite)

0.3 x 0.6 x 0.25 x 0.4 = 2%

Actually, that is pretty low, isn't it, 2%.

Really, I think this is worth talking about more after someone gets 2 in the bank, that gives you a chance. Even that hasn't happened for a long time.

If he could do it it would be a really GOATy achivement, Laver and Budge are the only ones to have it that I can think of.

The chances of Rafa doing the calendar slam is slim but cannot be written off. If Rafa stays fit then he will go into each slam next year as one of the favourites (strong favourite at Roland Garros) at all of the slams. Who can stop him? Well Novak Djokovic will probably be favourite for the Australian Open given his record there and Murray will be one of the favourites if not THE favourite at Wimbledon whilst at the US Open it is another that Rafa may now go into as favourite.

Long week, finally have a chance to say belated congrats to Rafa.  I only saw the match from 4:4 in the third, from which point on Rafa won 8:1, so to speak, so cannot judge the match overall - Rafa certainly looked far superior in the part I saw

Djoko was tired by then.

its not a martter of writing him off.
one thing is saying he will never win wimbledon or usopen or cincinnati or whatever, and another ibecause actually it is indeed almost impossible to do the year slam,

just take a look, how many times has it happened in the last 108 years? 3 times. last time in 1969

its not that it is impossible for rafa, but for anybody and in any of the past decades.

is rafa in a better position now than before? dont think so, he just won 1, its not like he has won 2 consecutive prior to roland garros

of course f he wins australia then the odds will start to point at the possibilitiy.

naxroy. Maybe it's just less impossible for Rafa than it is for others?

Interesting that when Rafa entered the AO in 2011 he had a shot at the non calender grand slam. Many must have thought he had a chance because I can remember there was a lot of talk about how it wouldn't be as impressive as a calendar grand slam. In fact some were so nervous about the possibility that he might win that they tried to pre empt the grandness of such an achievement by diminishing it before it could happen. It was decided that it mustn't be called a "grand" slam just something else instead...

Talk is talk though and when Djokovic had his chance of winning a grand slam when he entered the 2012 FO speculation was that if he achieved it he would elbow Federer out of the way and become GOAT.

I dont know what I was trying to say this mornning. really no clue

Winning Aus would be a great achievement, achieving the career slam twice!

Henman Bill wrote:Djoko was tired by then.

Yes, he did look tired.  That used to not happen to him in 2011.