HC Round 1 and the Irish teams

Well here we are with the first HC games just around the corner, and judging by the Rabo season so far and especially this weekend's games, Munster and Ulster can approach next weekend with some confidence, Leinster should be nervous and Connacht realistically in damage-limitation mode.

First Leinster, we might not be in crisis but for next week's HC it's just as well Ospreys are in no great shape either after losing at home to Ulster because the display in Thomond on Saturday was downright awful. Played off the park in most positions - you expect POC and Ryan to dominate over Toner and McCarthy but to see the front and back rows being done by Munster was frightening when you look at who we're facing in the next few weeks. I'll excuse Madigan his shocker as up to now he's been excellent and everybody is entitled to the odd bad game, but O'Connor has some serious thinking about who starts at 10 next week. I'd go with Madigan but improvement needed. And without the creativity we had from BOD in the Ospreys game a couple weeks ago, the back line looked toothless. And then we have Kirchner to come in - anybody who saw the SA-NZ game just before the Munster-Leinster game can see we ain't getting a new Nacewa - he was dog poor and looked out of his depth.

Given that there's little or chance of a best runner-up coming out of our HC group, we're going to have the win the group to go through to the QF's - and even then we would be struggling to get a home QF. I think we can win the group - Castres will blow hot and cold, Northampton are not going to win anything without a quality 10 (and Myler is a long way off that) and the Ospreys don't look in the greatest shape either. Going to be a struggle though.

Munster played real well on Saturday and should have won by a lot more but they shouldn't get carried away. A return of one try against an undercooked and overpowered Leinster team wasn't a great return for all the possession and territory. Still for the HC, they have one of the easier groups - Edinburgh are dire, Gloucester have been leaking almost 30 points a game in the AP while Perpignan are in mid-table in the T14 with a 5-4 record. Munster should be aiming to win this group and a home QF and if they get that anything can happen.

A few weeks ago I might have said Ulster should be very nervous but the past week they have got into gear and even managed to get an away Rabo win against what seems a full strength Ospreys. Didn't see any of this game but by all accounts the Ulster pack more than matched the Ospreys pack with all their Lions. Leicester seem to have some sort of a mental block playing in Ravenhill and Ulster should be be aiming to go out and do a good number on the Tigers. Even with an Italian team in the group there's no guarantee that two teams will come out of this group and Treviso have shown themselves more than capable of beating good teams on their own patch. The team that beats Treviso away will be in good shape to win this group. Pienaar back will be a huge boost - and the fact that he played only a small portion of the SA-NZ game should mean he arrives in good shape rather than pummeled like any of the SA ands NZ teams who played the full game.

For Connacht, unless they get a traditional west of Ireland storm (as they did when beat Quins) it's hard to see them doing anything other than fighting Zebre for 3rd spot. Unless the weather is really foul, it's hard to see Saracens not winning next week. Love to see Connacht do a real number on that charmer Nigel Wray's rugby plaything but sadly just can't see it.

Being honest I can't see an Irish winner of the HC this year - semi-finals for Munster and Ulster would be a good return, Leinster qualifying for the QF is attainable but difficult. Connacht, I'm afraid down with the also-rans

The only teams that have played up to their potential so far are Glasgow and Saracens...  Toulon have been average compared to what they used to show last year. Clermont is going backwards while Toulouse hasnt really improved. Montpelier is my dark horse but they lack experience. So in essence, the irish teams have as a good chance to win the thing as anybody else.

With Elwood, Connacht's were always capable of a one off performance, with Lam, unfortunately i don't see it hapenning, the gameplan he is trying to impose isn't suited to the players at his disposal.

Munster are nailed on a QF place.

I think all the Irish teams will find it tough this year.

- Ulster are finding some form but I think they still look a bit undercooked.

- Munster impressed yesterday but there are still question marks over their best 15.

- Leinster seem a bit lost without Schmidt, their scrum is struggling and the backline isn't firing.

- Connacht have been an omnishambles under Pat Lamb, despite having a better squad than previous years.

Munster and Ulster look best placed to do ok but both need to find a few extra gears.

I fear for Connacht this year. They have been all over the place so far and don't look up to this level. In previous years we've spoken of their banana skin status, this year they'll be doing well to keep their dignity based on their Pro12 form.

I'm grateful we start at Ravenhill- we have plenty of room for improvement but Leicester are nothing particularly special, not meaning they aren't a good team- they are- but we shouldn't fear them. We have just as much quality in our starting XV and we've shown that we can win games and take chances in the last few weeks after a wobbly start. We'll give them respect but we should demand a home win.

I feel like Ospreys can conquer this Leinster pack. I don't think Ospreys have a great all-round game but they have tons of power and precision in the forwards and a metronomic goal kicker- should be enough. I don't see where Leinster can gain the upper hand in the forwards. If the Ospreys show more composure than they did against us and play in the right areas I think Leinster will struggle to generate good ball to play with.

Ulster are looking in decent shape but we haven't even seen Afoa or Pienaar yet and we have rarely got our first choice backline together. If we have the two aforementioned and Bowe, Payne and Gilroy available I would feel a lot happier.

We need to be serious about just getting the win at ravenhill and then doing a number on Montpelier away. (easier said than done as Clermont found out)

If we can scrape two wins from the first two weekends I think we will top the group

Notch wrote:

I feel like Ospreys can conquer this Leinster pack. I don't think Ospreys have a great all-round game but they have tons of power and precision in the forwards and a metronomic goal kicker- should be enough. I don't see where Leinster can gain the upper hand in the forwards. If the Ospreys show more composure than they did against us and play in the right areas I think Leinster will struggle to generate good ball to play with.

Notch, I think you are being a touch harsh on the Ospreys. Granted they made some poor decisions against Ulster but in fairness Ulster are Ospreys bogey side just like the Ospreys are Leinster's.

I thought Friday's game was a tight match that both sides new going in to the game was probably going be decided by a score so to many tries where never on the cards. Ospreys do have some dangerous backs but its not always going to click for them every match. Generally I think your assessment is right though and given Ospreys will be hurting after losing to Ulster at home, I cant see Leinster win away in that opening match. That said Leinster can still afford to lose that game and still qualify for the later stages of the HC.

Welshmushroom wrote:

Notch wrote:

I feel like Ospreys can conquer this Leinster pack. I don't think Ospreys have a great all-round game but they have tons of power and precision in the forwards and a metronomic goal kicker- should be enough. I don't see where Leinster can gain the upper hand in the forwards. If the Ospreys show more composure than they did against us and play in the right areas I think Leinster will struggle to generate good ball to play with.

Notch, I think you are being a touch harsh on the Ospreys.  Granted they made some poor decisions against Ulster but in fairness Ulster are Ospreys bogey side just like the Ospreys are Leinster's.

I thought Friday's game was a tight match that both sides new going in to the game was probably going be decided by a score so to many tries where never on the cards.  Ospreys do have some dangerous backs but its not always going to click for them every match.  Generally I think your assessment is right though and given Ospreys will be hurting after losing to Ulster at home, I cant see Leinster win away in that opening match.  That said Leinster can still afford to lose that game and still qualify for the later stages of the HC.

Is there much attacking threat in the Ospreys backline aside from Eli Walker though? Against Ulster the Ospreys backline's only attacking flourish was Walker dodging a couple of tackles. Tebaldi box kicked everything, Biggar thrives off a conservative game plan where he can steady the ship and kick the goals. The centres played a crash ball game, the Canadian on the right wing looked out of his depth and Fussell is one of the most uninspiring fullbacks in the league. Walker aside I see very little attacking threat in the Ospreys backline which is probably why they tried to beat Ulster with 10 man rugby, but the Ulster pack was too strong. Against Leinster however, the Ospreys pack might win it for them.

Saints have probably shown more consistency in their performance than Leinster and Ospreys, so I'm surprised people are writing them off. I never bought into any Northampton hype in previous years, I said they were overrated and was proven right over and over again. This year they are different, like they've been on a journey and are coming to the end.... They're good enough to top the group, but will struggle in the KO stages with Myler. Don't underestimate Northampton with Fotuali'li, he's single handedly carried the Ospreys in the big games and will be vital for them.

Another note, in the scrum's the Ospreys haven't been impressive. They struggle when they start with Bevington and Adam isn't a fan of the new rules. Outside of the halfbacks and Eli Walker, you're all correct in saying the Ospreys backs are terrible.

No offence meant mushroom. I just don't feel the Ospreys have a great deal of incisiveness from 9-13. Who's going to cut through there?

I think being Welsh has hindered the Ospreys in previous years. They always had a phenomenal pack, but they used to put everything through the backs- especially in their Galactico phase. If they concentrate on just wearing sides down up front that will get them a long, long way in the Pro12 and I expect them to be in the mix for the championship. For Europe they might need an extra gear, but that group is really interesting.

Ulster should and will get a comfortable win on Friday. No point me worrying too much about anything else in that group after that really. However I expect that Leicester/Montpelier/Ulster will each beat the others at home and lose away. Thus the group will probably come down to who can win in Italy and securing as many BPs as possible.

Interesting to note that Sunday Times very own village idiot predicted Leicester to win the group with Ulster getting a best runner up spot in his group review - yet in his main review tipped Montpelier as potential semi-finallists.

Are we likely to see a slater, salvi, crane backrow LT or is that reserved for the premiership? Strikes me as very big but not particularly mobile

LondonTiger wrote:
Interesting to note that Sunday Times very own village idiot predicted Leicester to win the group with Ulster getting a best runner up spot in his group review - yet in his main review tipped Montpelier as potential semi-finallists.

The odds for that to happen must be quite extreme  

Notch wrote:No offence meant mushroom. I just don't feel the Ospreys have a great deal of incisiveness from 9-13. Who's going to cut through there?

Erm I'm a Dragons supporter so my view on the Ospreys is Neutral. Even I can't agree with that statement. Ashley Beck is every bit a international centre. Andrew Bishop has been one of their best players over the last 5 years. I appreciate going by the Ulster game that maybe no one stood out but then again neither did anyone from Ulster either. Does that mean their backs are not quality either?

I wouldn't disagree that Fussell is a waste of space at full back. Hassler needs more time to adjust to playing along side his players but he's already demonstrated he has an eye for the try line scoring 2 already which while not great is still better than a majority of the wingers in the league.

I personally think they have plenty of quality but a key area is they lack a proper attacking full back in the same style as Byrne used to be for them.

From my perspective I think part of the reason so many centres in the Pro12 are not looking that creative is because the standard in those positions is exceptionally high. This makes it difficult for them to get the upper hand on their opposite numbers.

Standulstermen wrote:Are we likely to see a slater, salvi, crane backrow LT or is that reserved for the premiership? Strikes me as very big but not particularly mobile

It's not the most mobile of backrows is it? However... needs must when the devil dumps in your pint. Croft & Mafi are both out injured and whilst Waldrom has lost some of his chub he is still sneaking pies into the changing room. So you have to go with what you've got...

Slater, Crane and Salvi will start in my humble opinion.

whocares wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:
Interesting to note that Sunday Times very own village idiot predicted Leicester to win the group with Ulster getting a best runner up spot in his group review - yet in his main review tipped Montpelier as potential semi-finallists.

The odds for that to happen must be quite extreme  

With the injury list we have going into this fixture and with our half backs not firing on all cylinders yet I can see this being a bit of grinder.

Tigers will defend well but are lacking that cutting edge in attack at the moment.

Heart says it will be a close one but my head says we're on for a thumping at Ravenhill.

Ulster need maximum points on Friday I think but the cohesion isn't quite there yet. Bowe, Gilroy and Trimble are all a few games away from top form I think.

TH is a bit of a problem with Afoa out and generally we haven't seen a settled side yet this season with injury and the internationals being rested.  

On the plus side Best looks fired up and Paddy Jackson has refound his kicking boots and confidence. Both Marshalls are playing well which gives us a solid 9-12 axis in Pienaar's absence. Allen's form makes up for Bowe and Trimbles lack of sharpness.

Jared Payne is the key man for me, when he plays Ulster are a much more dangerous side.

Haven't seen much premiership this season, how did Tigers get on at the weekend?

rodders wrote:Ulster need maximum points on Friday I think but the cohesion isn't quite there yet. Bowe, Gilroy and Trimble are all a few games away from top form I think.

TH is a bit of a problem with Afoa out and generally we haven't seen a settled side yet this season with injury and the internationals being rested.  

On the plus side Best looks fired up and Paddy Jackson has refound his kicking boots and confidence. Both Marshalls are playing well which gives us a solid 9-12 axis in Pienaar's absence. Allen's form makes up for Bowe and Trimbles lack of sharpness.

Jared Payne is the key man for me, when he plays Ulster are a much more dangerous side.

Haven't seen much premiership this season, how did Tigers get on at the weekend?

19-19 against the Saints. In Welford Road I believe.

So are Saints getting better or the Tigers getting worse...zat is zee question....

whocares wrote:The only teams that have played up to their potential so far are Glasgow and Saracens...  Toulon have been average compared to what they used to show last year. Clermont is going backwards while Toulouse hasnt really improved. Montpelier is my dark horse but they lack experience. So in essence, the irish teams have as a good chance to win the thing as anybody else.

Can't talk about the other teams but Saracens have not played to their full potential just yet. Haven't strung together a decent 80 minutes performance together as of now. Very strong 40 minutes vs Bath and two strong 2nd 40 minutes vs Gloucester and Quins have been the plus points but in the last two games there have been numerous wasted opportunities. Against stronger teams being more clinical will be important.

Can't argue with 5/5 but I still can see areas the top sides in the AP and in Europe can target.

Most impressive team in my opinion has been Saints in the AP in terms of performance.


In terms of the Irish sides - Leinster and Munster will always be in the mix in the HC. I expect Munster to qualify as pool winners - it's not a tough pool. Leinster will get tough competition from a Saints side who I expect to do well.

Ulster should definitely not underestimate the Tigers who I think do have the capability to do well. Leicester should take heart that Ulster's last two encounters with English teams were two losses for Ulster - one of them at Ravenhill. Logic would point to a home win for Ulster but Leicester have a big point to prove...

Onto Connacht - they seem to be struggling at the moment looking at the Pro12 table. Up against the top of the AP - a side who haven't yet put in a 80 minute performance but have looked relatively comfortable in their 5 wins. It could be a very painful evening for Connacht fans if Saracens do play near their best. Saracens are not like Quins, there will be no complacency. Plus Saracens' style is not mitigated by poor weather. I don't think Connacht will necessarily roll over but realistically Saracens will probably win this one comfortably - not sure Sarries will get the try bonus though.

If there's no complacency, does that mean if Connacht win they're simply the better team?

Hammerofthunor no it doesn't.

I suppose it depends how you define "better". It does mean they could have been the better team on the day.

1 win doesn't instantly make someone better though. Would you say Connacht are a better side than Quins because they managed to beat them once in 6 matches?

Are Japan a better side than Wales because they beat them? No of course not. Are England better than New Zealand because we beat them in our last match? No.

So if Sarries win they are better and if Connacht win Sarries are still better. Get with it Thunor!

A year ago I'd have fancied Connacht here but they've gone backwards this year under Lamb. Sarries will be too good.

rodders you are indeed correct. By the way if I am wrong and am made to eat humble pie (Saracens lose). I will write an article praising Connacht.

I hope for the sake of Leicester that the players are more confident than the fans at the moment otherwise we will take you to the cleaners.
The truth of it is that Ulster have hardly set the world on fire and are just not quite up to speed yet IMO. We have the players to cause any side problems but whether said players can fire on all cylinders is the question. I do hope I get to see another great HC day for Ulster at Ravers but it's Leicester we're talking about here and even injury ridden, the Tigers are a very difficult team to beat.
SUFTCAB!!!!

Pete I agree. I don't think Tiger fans should be so defeatist.

Ulster will of course start favourites but Tigers should be capable of giving Ulster a tough test.

In a sense I miss some of the swagger and cockiness Tigers used to have. They seem to have lost that fearsome aura - still a match for any AP side but I feel they need to rekindle that on the European scene.

Summary - still pretty dominant in the AP but on the European stage haven't really made a huge breakthrough for some time.

For Ulster it's crucial to win that first game at home for obvious reasons - lose and it would be a 3rd loss in a row to an English side. Also it would be difficult to recover from in a competitive group.

Well its a must win for Ulster, goes without saying. Usually I'd be talking about getting the 5 points at Ravenhill but as Pete alluded to we haven't hit top form yet.

I'm a tad worried the heino has come a week too early for us this season.

There's no better time to hit top form though and Tigers won't have good memories of their last visit....

rodders wrote:So are Saints getting better or the Tigers getting worse...zat is zee question....

Well, from my totally unbiased point of view as a Saints supporter, Saints are getting better.  Stevie Myler is playing the best he has played for us so far this season.  Much more active and quicker on his feet.  I have to credit the Alex King, brought in to run the attack.  The backs are moving and creating many more opportunities than in the past with different attack coaches.  Of course, bringing in that North lad does create space for the other backs (pretty handy player, no?).  Saints have played 5 matches are are averaging 25 points scored and only 15 given up.  

As an example of our improvement, last year's number 8, Van Velze is playing with the 'A' team whilst Dickenson is starting with the big boys.  Clearly upping the talent level.  

But, as with everything, it is early yet.  The Heineken Cup will start sorting teams quickly, as will a typically wonderful British and Irish winter.  

Regarding Tigers, they have a lot of injuries and if teams want to get them, now is the time.  This is clearly not their best team, and they will improve.  Saints had them down at Welford Road (no easy place to play) 10 points with 10 minutes to go.  Then the damn Tigers do what they seem to always do is grind out scores to level the match.  The big hole in the Saints armour is learning how to hold teams down, especially the very good ones.

LondonTiger wrote:
Interesting to note that Sunday Times very own village idiot predicted Leicester to win the group with Ulster getting a best runner up spot in his group review - yet in his main review tipped Montpelier as potential semi-finallists.

  

Rodders, if Ulster don't get five points I'll be amazed. Our backrow is big but has no outright pace to help cover the line meaning our outside defence is often isolated. Flood and Youngs aren't match fit so the half backs aren't sparking (Flood is kicking at 60 something %) and we've got Mr hot or cold Goneva at 13 who is either jaw droppingly good or anonymous.

I just hope our decent lineout and scrum can hold out enough to get a LBP.

Can't see ulster getting the 5 points. I would be delighted if we could get a 4-0 point split. Any win would do and hope treviso turn over Montpelier in Italy. Any win and we go to France knowing that any win there sets us up beautifully

Welshmushroom wrote:

Notch wrote:No offence meant mushroom. I just don't feel the Ospreys have a great deal of incisiveness from 9-13. Who's going to cut through there?

Erm I'm a Dragons supporter so my view on the Ospreys is Neutral.  Even I can't agree with that statement.  Ashley Beck is every bit a international centre.  Andrew Bishop has been one of their best players over the last 5 years.  I appreciate going by the Ulster game that maybe no one stood out but then again neither did anyone from Ulster either.  Does that mean their backs are not quality either?

I wouldn't disagree that Fussell is a waste of space at full back.  Hassler needs more time to adjust to playing along side his players but he's already demonstrated he has an eye for the try line scoring 2 already which while not great is still better than a majority of the wingers in the league.  

I personally think they have plenty of quality but a key area is they lack a proper attacking full back in the same style as Byrne used to be for them.  

From my perspective I think part of the reason so many centres in the Pro12 are not looking that creative is because the standard in those positions is exceptionally high.  This makes it difficult for them to get the upper hand on their opposite numbers.

Not sure what Ospreys you've been watching. For instance, consider the fact that Cory Allen and Owen Williams have barely played together as a partnership for the Blues, they already look far better than Beck/Bishop. Bish should be back at 12, he's good on the crash ball and is an excellent defender. Beck might be capped but that doesn't make him great, plus he's the slowest centre in Wales. Dragons also have a better centre partnership. Dixon and Wardle are big guys in good form. Hasler has been a good signing for Ospreys, he just had a bad game against Ulster. Tibaldi and Biggar are probably the greatest halfback combo in the league right now. You're right about Fussell at least. Outside of the forward, 9, 10 and Eli Walker Ospreys do not offer much incisiveness in the backline. Saints and Leinster both excel in that department.

8 points would be amazing from the first two games, but I'd settle for 5 or 6.

Certainly we don't want to allow Tigers to take anything- but it will be much closer than previous Ulster-Tigers games at Ravenhill. A defeat is not impossible, but everyone understands how much of a disaster that would be for us- no chance of complacency.

4 points against Leicester and 1 against Montpelier would be an ok return.
Denying Leicester a point at Ravenhill is crucial.

After that target wins x2 against Trevisio and at home to Montpelier.
Against Leicester away its a case of seeing what we need.

I think the way the fixtures have come out suit us, provide we beat Leicester.
We would have got the tricky trip to France out the way and they will still have to go there

But if we win in France, would Montpelier lose interest, making it easier for the Tigers?

They would but to be honest I think we should be in a position of already qualifying for the QF before going to Welford road in that case.

Montpelier are a decent team - our group is one of the hardest it is going to be difficult

HEC is so last year's colour.

Forget this season's HEC and look forward instead to the Championship next year between the Big French and English Giants!

Leinster will win the HEC this year at a yawn (despite the slow start) and retire from all rugby forthwith to take up a commenatry position with BT.

Secretfly I bet an Irish team doesn't win the HC this year.

SecretFly wrote:HEC is so last year's colour.

Forget this season's HEC and look forward instead to the Championship next year between the Big French and English Giants!

Leinster will win the HEC this year at a yawn (despite the slow start) and retire from all rugby forthwith to take up a commenatry position with BT.

  brilliant.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/winner

Interesting looking at the Heineken betting odds.

Leinster are 5th favourites, Ulster are 7th favourites. Munster are 8th in the odds.

Connacht are 23rd favourites.

Any Scottish fans interested in Glasgow's 80-1?

beshocked wrote:Secretfly I bet an Irish team doesn't win the HC this year.

Double or quits one doesn't win next year.

Wow 32Red must be the tightest bookie I've ever seen,those odds are awful.

Montpellier slaughtered Clermont 43-3 a couple of weeks back. They'll be tough to beat this year.

Tigers drew with the much improved Saints at Welford Rd but that owed a lot to Saints blowing a couple of easy try scoring chances including North knocking on with an open try line. Tigers only showed up for the last 20 mins and blew a tiring Saints away grabbing 10 points in the last 10 mins to secure the draw. Had a pass or two gone to hand we could have won. We just can't seem to play for more than short spells this season, in those short spells we are very good but they only last for a half at most. We were dire at times on Saturday.

I have read somewhere that Connacht vs Saracens will be a full house. Excellent if true.

Will I be forced to eat humble pie I wonder? I am sure many posters would love to see that!

I have been talking up my side - now they must deliver.

Would be great if a Connacht fan or two could tell me something about your team. What are your strengths, weaknesses etc?

formerly known as Sam wrote:Montpellier slaughtered Clermont 43-3 a couple of weeks back. They'll be tough to beat this year.

Tigers drew with the much improved Saints at Welford Rd but that owed a lot to Saints blowing a couple of easy try scoring chances including North knocking on with an open try line. Tigers only showed up for the last 20 mins and blew a tiring Saints away grabbing 10 points in the last 10 mins to secure the draw. Had a pass or two gone to hand we could have won. We just can't seem to play for more than short spells this season, in those short spells we are very good but they only last for a half at most. We were dire at times on Saturday.

Still ver early in the season for a lot of sides most of the side i dont think are fully match fit and battle hardened until after the autumn internationals

Don't forget the effect of the Lions hangover which always happens after every Lions tour.

Tigers already seem to be feeling that.

Munster to win their group and secure a home semi-final in the process.
Ulster to be runner-up, behind Montpelier.
Connacht to beat Zebre home and away to finish 3rd.

Leinster, well that is down to which team can win away, if any, and who secures what bonus points. Could come anywhere from 1st to 4th.


One guarantee - at least some of those predictions will be wrong.

Vietgwentrevisted I think that's a very realistic view point.

Munster are Heineken cup animals - they somehow drag themselves through. It is a disappointing HC group.

Disagree with your Ulster prediction. I think they can come 1st or 2nd.

Montpellier like most French sides struggle away from home - I can't see them winning at Ravenhill or Welford Road. Plus I think Treviso could shock Montpellier at home.

Agree about Connacht though I think Zebre might feel their best chance of a HC victory is the 2nd round vs Connacht at home.

In regards to Leinster's pool I can't see Castres doing well. They struggle in Europe and have had a poor start in the top 14.

Ospreys and Saints are unpredictable in my opinion - both are more than capable of beating Leinster but it depends if they click or not. Leinster have the best European form of the three.

My money would be on Leinster simply to do with experience but it wouldn't surprise me if Ospreys actually live up to their potential or Saints show the ability we know they have.

I dont think Montpelier will qualify.

Only one from the group as Montperlier and Treviso will both win matches.
The winners Leicester or Ulster will probably end up with an away QF

This is one of the hardest groups

If I was going to rank pools in order of strength I would say:

Pool 1
Pool 5
Pool 4
Pool 2
Pool 3
Pool 6