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Drive for dough Putt for show?

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Post by McLaren Thu 24 Oct 2013, 1:00 am

JAson Sobel ( http://www.golfchannel.com/news/jason-sobel/molinari-leading-charge-for-statistical-analysis-long-trumps-short-game/ ) wrote:ORLANDO, Fla. – In between bites of filet mignon and sips of sparkling water at a chic restaurant with a warm breeze floating in from its back porch, Edoardo Molinari is plotting the revolution. The one that’s going to turn the golf landscape upside-down. The one that’s going to make us rethink everything we already thought we knew. The statistical revolution.

OK, so it’s not exactly his revolution to plot, but Molinari has been serving on the frontlines for years. Armed with more numbers than a phone book, he is prepared for what’s to come.

His part of this story dates back to 2003, when the Italian was still an amateur. An engineering student who’s always had a keen thirst for wanting to know how things work and where they can be improved, Molinari began keeping a spreadsheet of every personal statistic from every round. Beyond just fairways and greens percentages, he would monitor where shots landed and their ensuing results. He did this while winning the 2005 U.S. Amateur Championship; he continued it while competing for the victorious European team in the 2010 Ryder Cup.

In the spring of 2011, the PGA Tour introduced a new statistical category called strokes gained-putting. The brainchild of Columbia Business School professor Mark Broadie, the stat was the first of its kind to measure how golfers compared to the median as opposed to blindly bleating numbers about putting average and total putts without giving the data any perspective.

Naturally interested in how his personal data could be interpreted, Molinari contacted Broadie. The two met just before the 2011 U.S. Open, and the professor plugged nearly a decade’s worth of the player’s stats into a program that analyzed what these numbers actually meant in relation to his competition.

“I had all of the data from before,” Molinari said. “I just didn’t have the ability to calculate the gains and the losses. I was very skeptical in the beginning. But when something is based on fact, when you look at the numbers for 10 years and the numbers show consistency every year, it’s difficult to say that’s wrong.”

Thanks to the professor, he was not only able to analyze his numbers, he was able to use these findings to practice specific areas that needed improvement.

Pretty soon, so will every other golfer. If they so choose.

In March, Broadie will release his newest book, “Every Shot Counts.” It will be filled with more than 10 years of statistics from both the professional and amateur ranks, employing comparative analysis to prove where players are gaining and losing strokes against their competitors.

The data in the book will present a revolution already found in other sports. We’ll get to those analogies, but let’s not bury the lede any longer. There’s one headline-grabber that is sure to make headlines around the world:

Long game is more important than short game.

In a revelation that is sure to leave the old-school “drive for show, putt for dough” thinkers stomping in their soft spikes, Broadie found that 68 percent of the differential between golfers can be found in the long game, with only 17 percent attributable to short game and 15 percent to putting.

“When I compare the top players on the PGA Tour, I find that the long game contributes about two-thirds to their success while the short game and putting contributes about one-third,” Broadie said. “Initially I was surprised, so I analyzed the data in different ways and found that all roads led to the same conclusion.”

For example, in any given year if you looked at the scoring average of the top 10 on the money list compared with those ranking 116-125, the scoring average differential would be about two strokes. Based on Broadie’s comparative analysis, about 1.4 of those strokes gained would come from the long game, while only 0.6 would be attributable to short game and putting.

If the numbers alone aren’t enough to reshape how you see the game, consider Molinari’s anecdotal evidence.

“You and I are having a match,” the man with nine career professional victories says to a single-digit handicapper. “Would you rather have a match on the putting green, chipping or who hits it longer and straighter? You’d take the putting green every time. At least you’d have a chance. You’d have no chance in the other areas. When you think about it, it makes sense.”

And when you think about it, it makes sense that all of the statistics we’ve used for so long to measure a player’s talent and success now seem archaic by comparison.

In theory, the day is coming soon when Broadie’s two-year-old strokes gained-putting statistic is joined by categories of strokes gained-driving, strokes gained-approach shots and strokes gained-chipping.

If it sounds impossible, consider the statistical changes in baseball over the past 10-15 years.

The previous generation would measure its stars on the diamond by batting average and runs batted in, win percentage and earned run average. Those still exist, but have yielded importance within the game’s inner circles to acronyms like WAR (wins above replacement) and VORP (value over replacement player). These numbers may not be as easy to understand, but are undeniably more reliable in providing useful analytical data.

There is little reason to believe that golf statistics such as driving accuracy and greens in regulation won’t soon be replaced in significance by more meaningful data that compares players against their competition.

“Sometimes I thought I was driving it well and it didn’t show in the fairways hit, but if you look at how many shots I gained off the tee, you immediately see it,” says Molinari, who’s missed the last three months following surgery on his left thumb. “I can tell you a few tournaments where I had great driving weeks. I was only hitting nine or 10 fairways per round, which is not great, but I go look at the stats and I was gaining a half-shot per round. Then there were other rounds where I’d hit 12 fairways, but hit one in the water and one out of bounds, and I’d end up losing shots against the field.

“The right thing is that you have a number.”

Broadie understands that it will be difficult, if not impossible, to teach an old dog new tricks. Which is to say, those who have spent an entire life playing this game and steadfastly believing that putting is more important than anything else won’t soon allow statistical proof to affect their theory.

“Lower scores come from improving weaknesses while maintaining – or even improving – strengths,” he continues. “Strokes-gained analysis makes it much easier to identify those strengths and weaknesses.”

Here’s where Broadie’s research could change the entire spectrum of how the game is played, not just at its uppermost levels. Not only does his analysis favor long game over short game for touring professionals, the results remain consistent for amateurs, as well.

He knows this because for the past decade, Broadie has mapped every single shot in every group in which he’s played. He’ll laser each yardage, take note of each club and write down each result. (And no, it remarkably doesn’t take him any longer to play than anyone else.) These findings will be released in the book, but they mirror those of game’s best.

In other words, work on your long game.

Perhaps, though, more customized statistical analysis will soon become all the rage. Ponder this question: Would you rather shell out 50 bucks to have an instructor loosen your grip or change your elbow position on the range, or spend that money to earn knowledge on where you’re gaining and losing strokes to those of the same skill level? It’s a radical idea, but hey, these are revolutionary times.

And these results can alter the way every golfer approaches the game.

“It does change the way you practice,” Molinari maintains. “You can immediately tell where your strength points and weaknesses are. It’s a number. You can compare yourself between one season and another. In 2010, I was playing well and I was gaining a half-point on the field; in 2011, I was playing poorly and I was losing 0.3. My scoring average was affected by 0.8.”

Both Broadie and Molinari realize there will be some quick adapters to this analysis, some who will remain interested without it changing their methods and others who will forever eschew these findings.

The easygoing Italian isn’t one to provoke social media wars, but he recently got so frustrated after tweeting some of these results and receiving pushback from establishment types that he ended a string of 140-character correspondences by posting: “Believe what you want, I cannot care less. The truth is out there, you simply need to understand it.”

It’s true. Many will refuse to believe that driving isn’t for show and putting isn’t for dough, no matter what the numbers mean.

As for Molinari, there may be no greater endorsement of Broadie’s research than when he’s asked whether his fellow players will soon use this data to change their well-established work habits.

The pro looks sternly ahead for a few seconds, then laughs, more to himself than his company. “Hopefully,” he says knowingly, “they won’t.”

The revolution is coming. It’s almost here.
What say ye folks?
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Post by kwinigolfer Thu 24 Oct 2013, 1:28 am

Didn't Eddie play a significant part in formulating statistical criteria for the European Tour? Perhaps as an extension to his university thesis??

Interestingly, during the PGA Tour's first two events, Jimmy Walker had the third worst driving accuracy %age for a Tour winner since they started collecting data in the early 80's. And both Walker and Simpson led the week in strokes gained putting.

I wonder if aggregation of driving data is a more important indicator over the long-term, but strokes-gained-putting is the short-term key?

Two things are for sure:
Short and crooked off the tee will never work.
And terrible putting will never be bailed out by straight-down-the-middle tee shots.

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Post by super_realist Thu 24 Oct 2013, 8:12 am

Mmm, I can only ever have 18 drives per round. I can have any amount of putts potentially between 0 (if I chip in every hole) or 54 if I three putt every green.
Obviously reducing the number of putts you have and getting the best possible results from your drives will improve your round. Hardly a science breakthrough, but then sportsmen aren't that bright, so they may not think of the obvious

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Post by busted Thu 24 Oct 2013, 8:32 am

I have always thought that driving is way more important than putting - at my level anyway - as if you are chipping out of the trees 50% of the time, it makes no difference how you putt, and If you are playing a wedge instead of a 5 iron, you are way more likely to hit the green. I know if i drive well, Ill score well, and if i dont , i wont.

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Post by navyblueshorts Thu 24 Oct 2013, 8:38 am

Never believed in that old driving/putting axiom. If you can't put it on the short stuff off the tee, you aren't going to be putting for a lot of dough.
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Post by incontinentia Thu 24 Oct 2013, 8:45 am

kwini- just on your short and crooked line- wasn't Luke Donald fairly short and crooked when he reached #1 and had that great year in 2011?

That's a very interesting read Mac, thanks for sharing. I have always thought the whole "drive for show putt for dough" adage was a bit of a crock. Its very difficult to putt for dough when you're struggling to save par after an errant drive.

Some stats seem to be deceptive too- didn't Boo Weekley lose his card after coming first in the GIR stat one year??
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Post by super_realist Thu 24 Oct 2013, 8:47 am

If you can't do both fairly well, you'll never be good.

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Post by MontysMerkin Thu 24 Oct 2013, 9:00 am

Think this sums it up nicely - the better at golf you are, the lower your score will be. I thank you, now wheres that PHD application....
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Post by George1507 Thu 24 Oct 2013, 9:08 am

It might have some benefit to a pro where the difference between winning and not winning over 72 holes is possibly about ¼ of a shot per round. This comparison between players might work when everyone is of approximately the same standard (like on a Pro tour) - the guy who is last with 75 could conceivably shoot 65 the next day. For club golfers, every Sunday morning we're competing with guys who score anyway between 70 and 100. The guys who score 100 aren't going to score 70 next week. Similarly the guys scoring 70 this week aren't going to take more than 80 next week.

For the rest of us I'm pretty sure that we know when we are playing well - and when we are playing not so well, and when we are playing poorly.

Personally, I know that if I'm hitting second shots of trees and rough, I'm not going to have a winning score. Or if I walk off having taken 36 putts or so, then it's not going to be a great round. On the other hand, if I'm hitting irons from the middle of fairways AND I putt well, then I'm going to have a good score. Whether I win or not is maybe rather more to do with an eighteen handicapper having a field day, but I know my gross score is going to be pretty close.

So I'd question whether it's really important to have a statistic tell us why we aren't paying well, when in reality we probably know when - and why - we aren't playing well.


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Post by super_realist Thu 24 Oct 2013, 9:10 am

George thumbsup 

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Post by Roller_Coaster Thu 24 Oct 2013, 9:10 am

Good read Mac. As with many things (capitalism/socialism debate anyone?) I think if you take off the extremes (short and crooked drives and short game magicians in this instance) I can see it makes a lot of sense.

If you can find any way of identifying where you are relatively weak to your peers, it gives you what you need to work on. I can see it makes more sense in the pro ranks where the majority are broadly similar talent/scoring wise than at my level/attitude (where if it's a bad day driving/ironing/putting it's a bad day - I'm unlikely to go and work on anything much regardless).

The old adage is really only true if you get your drives away well (enough) in the first place. If you can't get there efficiently, one putting for a 6 makes little difference against someone 2 putting for a 5 (net!).

Resonates a little with me as I often have days with over 18 drives/tee shots. Bloody carve/disaster pull!

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Post by incontinentia Thu 24 Oct 2013, 9:20 am

merkin-head mcilroy was never known for his short game. same can be said for Westwood, and both have enjoyed stints at #1 in recent years.

great putters include stricker, freddie jacobson, snedeker, baddeley... great players but not world#1 material.
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Post by MustPuttBetter Thu 24 Oct 2013, 9:46 am

I'm a bit of a sucker for all this stats stuff, so thanks Mac, i found it interesting.
I remember reading a thing once that highlighted the main difference between at his peak Tiger and the rest of the field was hitting from the 150-200 yard area rather than putting or short game.

That said, what you'd usually hear from a coach is not necessary 'improving your short game will make you a better player than improving your long game' but instead 'improving your short game will make you a better player more quickly than improving your long game'.
If you want to take 4 or 5 shots off pronto i think working on your chipping and pitching will yield results quicker than working on perfecting your 3 iron technique
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Post by McLaren Thu 24 Oct 2013, 10:06 am

The westwood example is worth considering as he was very good and scored very well without a decent short game.

You could perhaps compare him to faxon who was a master of the short game but terrible from the tee. (To the point where he abandoned his driver and developed a phobia of it)

Faxon was a good player but never on top of the world like westwood was.
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Post by super_realist Thu 24 Oct 2013, 10:08 am

I've worked out about 70% of the shots I'll play are within 150 yards.
Slightly less than 50% are with the putter.
6% with the driver.
8% with the three wood.

The rest a mix of 3-6 iron shots.

Of course, my game will improve if I practice all aspects, but within 150 is where the most gains in practice are to be gained

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Post by McLaren Thu 24 Oct 2013, 10:18 am

Super

Think of it as an accumulative situation. If you put your driver into a poor position 65% of the time then your shots from then on are compromised 65% of the time.
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Post by George1507 Thu 24 Oct 2013, 10:29 am

McLaren wrote:The westwood example is worth considering as he was very good and scored very well without a decent short game.

You could perhaps compare him to faxon who was a master of the short game but terrible from the tee.  (To the point where he abandoned his driver and developed a phobia of it)

Faxon was a good player but never on top of the world like westwood was.
That's true but it's easy to understand why. Westwood can hit it miles, and sometimes putts well. When that happens he's likely to win - or at least score in the mid 60s.

Faxon usually putts well, but can't ever hit it miles. His scores are likely to be consistent, but he isn't likely to score in the mid 60s because he isn't getting it on the green on long par fours and par fives in two shots.

So Westwood wins a few events, and finishes 40th sometimes, while Faxon doesn't often win but usually finishes better than 25th. The OWGR favours Westwood over Faxon.

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Post by McLaren Thu 24 Oct 2013, 10:32 am

Is that fact what you are stating about Faxon's finishing positions?
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Post by super_realist Thu 24 Oct 2013, 10:44 am

McLaren wrote:Super

Think of it as an accumulative situation.  If you put your driver into a poor position 65% of the time then your shots from then on are compromised 65% of the time.
I see what you mean, but if my driving is crap, it only affects a small section of my game, if my putting, chipping or approach shots are bad then it doesn't matter how good my driving is.
I only hit driver about 4 times a round, so 65% of four shots is not even 3 drives.

Fortunately I'm decent driver and short game

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Post by hend085 Thu 24 Oct 2013, 10:47 am

that's the most intelligent thing ive ever heard you say Mac

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Post by puligny Thu 24 Oct 2013, 11:15 am

Mac - good find, thank you. I certainly had a spell this year where long game was off, and the impact was far more destructive than I might have expected. 3 off the tee, chipping out sideways, finding water, leaving difficult pitches, chips and putts etc. The article has struck a real chord with me, recognising that I would rarely ship more than one shot through short game and putting errors, but could easily lose more with the long game, and/or cause the loss of a shot with the short game. Shall read the book with added interest.

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Post by BlueCoverman Thu 24 Oct 2013, 11:27 am

Luke Guthrie had 19 putts today in his 65 to lead after the first round of the BMW Masters...

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Post by super_realist Thu 24 Oct 2013, 11:29 am

WOw, must have missed a lot of greens and chipped well then.

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Post by Roller_Coaster Thu 24 Oct 2013, 11:35 am

Roller_Coaster had 19 putts today in his 65 front 9 and is currently leading everyone home in his BMW*

*I don't have a BMW

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Post by super_realist Thu 24 Oct 2013, 11:38 am

Roller_Coaster wrote:Roller_Coaster had 19 putts today in his 65 front 9 and is currently leading everyone home in his BMW*

*I don't have a BMW
A good thing too, Mac would call you a traitor for being aspirational.

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Post by MontysMerkin Thu 24 Oct 2013, 11:47 am

I suppose that all holds true. Borrowing my mates driver (Burner 2.0) gives me a long high fade and has meant that I'm in a much better position off the tee usually leaving less than an 8 iron in. My other driver (G15) hit low with draw (sometimes hook) but I was chipping out of the cabbage a lot more. As a consequence come down from 11 to 8 in a couple of months! I would never have thought that it would make such a big difference! And putting for birdie all the time instead of par is a lot more comfortable - mind you probably won't be long before I'm cursing missed birdie opps instead of smiling and tapping in my par!
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Post by Lairdy Thu 24 Oct 2013, 11:53 am

Driving determines how high you shoot. Putting determines how low you shoot.

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Post by kwinigolfer Thu 24 Oct 2013, 12:28 pm

Short and crooked:
incontinentia:
Doesn't Luke Donald's 2011 prove the point that short and crooked doesn't work?

In 2011 Donald was 147th in PGA Tour driving distance, straighter than usual, 57th and 41st in greens hit in reg.

In 2013, he lost distance (157th) but also accuracy (60th), and plummetted to 156th in gir.

Even in 2011 his three worst tournaments (by a long way) were those where fairways and greens usually trumps short game brilliance - Riviera, US Open and Open Championship.


Only other comment I'd make is that comparing two different golfers, say Faxon and Westwood, is fatuous - got to compare how the same golfer performs, apples and apples, over the long term.


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Post by lorus59 Sat 26 Oct 2013, 11:53 am

I guess it depends on how good a player you are. If you are lousy driver/long iron/fairway wood player, you will always have a high score no matter how good your short game is.

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Post by incontinentia Sat 26 Oct 2013, 1:13 pm

so I guess this thread has taught us that the phrase should be amended to "drive for dough, putt for dough". doesn't have quite the same ring to it dough
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Post by oldshanker Sat 26 Oct 2013, 3:02 pm

Not a great lover of 'damned statistics' and I've always believed that you have to putt and chip well to get a low handicap - neither of which I now do!

However, love him or loathe him, Gary Player was a big believer in the second shot to the green and I can say out of bitter experience, that if you are playing someone who consistantly hits the green in regulation, you will really struggle to beat him/her, no matter how average their putting is or brilliant yours is.
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Post by Plunky Sat 26 Oct 2013, 5:16 pm

Here are some interesting snippets from an article in golf digest. A PGA pro says he pays his swing coach 200 usd an hour, plus expenses if he comes on the road. He says thats pretty standard. His short game coach gets 1 pct of tournament winnings. But the mental coach seems to have the best deal -- 20k usd per year plus 5 pct of all the pro's top-25 finishes !

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Post by kwinigolfer Sat 26 Oct 2013, 7:35 pm

Plunky,
Are you the "Undercover Pro"?

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Post by Plunky Sun 27 Oct 2013, 12:50 am

You have clearly never seen me swing !  Actually I've been playing pretty well on Bethpage black lately.  I think it's probably because my expectations are so low that I just relax and have fun Very Happy

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Post by twoeightnine Sun 27 Oct 2013, 11:13 am

I subscribe to the theory that for amateurs driving is the most important part of your game as if you drive well the confidence that comes from it bleeds into the rest of your game. If you're knocking it in to the cabbage and having to chip out you are then scrambling and probably making bogey at best.

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Post by Eyetoldyouso Mon 28 Oct 2013, 10:32 am

lorus59 wrote:I guess it depends on how good a player you are. If you are lousy driver/long iron/fairway wood player, you will always have a high score no matter how good your short game is.
You've been watching me Smile

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Post by SmithersJones Mon 28 Oct 2013, 1:47 pm

I don't think it's just driving, I think it's the long game in general that differentiates players. I have never seen a low handicapper play and thought 'I wish I could chip/putt like that' but I have often thought 'I wish I could strike the ball like that'.
SmithersJones
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Posts : 2094
Join date : 2011-01-27

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Drive for dough Putt for show? Empty Re: Drive for dough Putt for show?

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