What Will Federer's Ranking Be at the End of 2014?

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Tough it depends on if he refocuses I went for about 8th

I went for 4-5.  Maybe optimistic I know, but I do not see why he could not do it.  He is not getting any younger but at 33 he will not yet be at an age where he has to drop dramatically.  If he keeps himself healthy, I think he can do all right.

3 or 4. If he puts in the work in the off-season, and gets the intensity back, then there's no reason why he can't be a solid #4, waiting to capitalise if anyone above him dips.

No reason he couldn't. It's just a case if he still has the effort left in him

Silver wrote:3 or 4. If he puts in the work in the off-season, and gets the intensity back, then there's no reason why he can't be a solid #4, waiting to capitalise if anyone above him dips.

I would have liked to have the option of 3-4 in the poll, as I see it much the same as you do.  As it is, I went with 4-5 instead of 1-3.

don't think he can be n3 really. unless murray disappears next year

true is murray has loads of points to defend in the first half of the season though

He will probably jockey for #3 with Murray throughout the year. Del Potro and Ferrer (to a lesser extent) should not be discounted.

I voted 1-3 He is doing the right things, results will follow!

I put 6 -7, although 6 - 8 is more realistic. Really can't see him getting into the top 5 again.

His ranking will be rank. I think memories of last years Wimbledon title & him regaining the No 1 spot should keep him going for another year.

I meant to say that this is assuming he plays a reasonably complete season, at least 12 or 13 tournaments or more, and assuming he doesn't retire mid way through the season.

I think 4 to 5 personally (or maybe 6). I don't see him finishing above Murray, Nadal or Djokovic unless injuries intervene there. I think Del Potro, Federer and Ferrer are around the same level now.

naxroy wrote:true is murray has loads of points to defend in the first half of the season though

He's got a fair few with Wimby and the Aus - but little else, apart from Miami. He almost has a free hit during the dirt season

I'm amazed that nearly a quarter think 1-3. Unless there is something very serious with Murray, the Scot will have enough about him to continue to be above Federer

It's also hard to imagine that the newly found consistency of Del Potro won't be better than Roger's

Then we have to ask if Ferrer is going to have a bad spell

Hence a 6/7 fight with Berdych or maybe Raonic is the realistic bet

And by the way no mean feat

Nothing Roger has done at this tournament has made me worry less, about his chances at a Slam and that's where the big points for a Top 4 place are picked up. Ask Andy Murray -who's done virtually nowt elsehwere in the last year!!

Yeah Murray was up and down all year, confusing at the time, understandable now. Apart from Melbourne, Miami and Wimbledon he actually really struggled and the clay season and the last 3 months will be gravy for him if he does moderately well.

As for Roger, I think 5th or 6th. I fancy Delpo to cement no.4 next year. Roger just needs a good spell injury free and some confidence. He's not ready for the scrap heap yet, and I fancy a strong Wimbledon from him again.

I've gone for 4-5. You have to remember that he's won 45 matches in a "poor" year. Some could argue that Rafa's absence at the beginning of the year and Murray's absence at the end should have helped Fed. But in fact that just made more of the big points available for others.
  I think Rog will be fitter going in to 2014. There's no doubt that 2012 took a lot out of him plus that rather silly end-of-season tour. He'll be heartened by his late-season run, particularly the two wins against del Potty. Playing at the business end of tourneys in recent weeks must surely have re-whetted his appetite. Number one and GS wins are beyond Rog IMHO, unless somebody puts a contract out on Rafa and Nole, but there's no reason why we won't see him at the O2 again this time next year.

I went for 11-15. We don't know how bad the back will be and I think being ranked 5-8 will hurt him as I can't see how he will beat Rafa or Novak in a QF (or Andy if fit).

I went for 4-5, but I'd hedge it at 4-6, and my supposition is that he can keep his back problems at better in 2014 than he managed in 2013, if not who knows where he'll end.

Djoko/Nadal/Murray are out of reach.

He's just behind the next tier of Del Boy/Ferrer after a year when his back has screwed him.

Berdych and the others have not overhauled him despite their best chance ever - his form at the end of this season has shown that they are likely to continue to be stretched.

The fact that Fed has been able to twice defeat del Po - who is arguably the best bet to challenge the "old" order right at the top - shows that he's still a match for anyone outside the Rafa-Nole-Andy axis.
  Ferrer's "Duracell-bunny" performances might, finally, be running out of batteries, so it could be that Fed might finish at four which would be something considering he'll be 33 at season's end.

The key to Federer's end of year 2014 ranking is whether he will be fit enough to keep going & having a full ATP tour (commiting to Masters & 500 tournaments as well as the slams).

I believe a fit Djokovic & Nadal will now always dominate (i.e. in most matches) Federer.

Murray vs Federer I believe to be more even but I suspect Murray has edged ahead & will now have the advantage over Federer. In addition I think Murray is more competitive than Federer against the current top two & so should claim the No 3 spot. However it is not guaranteed that Murray will recover fully from his back injury & return to the levels he showed in 2013 & 2012 (although one cannot doubt Murray's commitment to do so).

All other match ups I think Federer still has the edge - but he may not have the strength to play a full schedule of ATP tournaments: so others might overtake him in the ranking because they play more tournaments.

His drop down the rankings to 7 this year compared to a high of 1 last year shows how important it is for Federer to commit & maintain his health for a full ATP schedule.

NoreStaat. Fed getting 1,000 or so points in these last three tourneys will stand him in good stead. They'll stay on his rolling year record for nearly all of 2014 and he has nothing like the number of points to defend in 14 than he had in 13.
I think I'm right in saying that the only reasonably big points total left on Rog's resume is the AO semi-final from January 2013. Plenty of opportunities for him to gain points next year.

NS - good point. We don't know for sure that Murray will come back at potential slam winning level. That 12 months of Olympic, US and Wimbledon champion (and AO and previous year Wimbledon runner up) might be a level he never gets back to.

Quite a few unknowns in 2014 really...

amazed at how many people think Federer will finish top 5 on the back of the odd decent win right at the end of the season. Reallistically, top 3 is out (he won't overtake Nadal, Djokovic or Murray unless something remarkable happens), then you have Del Potro, Berdych who you'd expect to finish ahead of him too. I went 8-10, can't see him any higher (I'd expect Gasquet, Wawrinka, Tsonga to get ahead of him too). Simply put, he isn't getting any younger, and the odd match on his favourite surface where he's still competitive against the guys he'll be fighting for the top 8 don't obscure that for me.

Danny_1982 wrote:NS - good point. We don't know for sure that Murray will come back at potential slam winning level. That 12 months of Olympic, US and Wimbledon champion (and AO and previous year Wimbledon runner up) might be a level he never gets back to.

Quite a few unknowns in 2014 really...

Danny - are these the known unknowns or the unknown unknowns !

Murray is a known unknown. Federer's back is an unknown unknown, as are Rafa's knees.

The rest I know that I don't know.... He says.... Knowingly.

Well, that's nice to know.

8-10....time waits for no man, not even Federer.

I went 8-10 too.

Plus ....  I do believe it would be perfectly respectable.

Very few cases in 'recent' history of a player as old as Federer is even currently, finishing a year inside the top ten. Think you have to go back almost a decade for the last such example, not surprisingly the fitness freak that was Andre Agassi  

Lags72. Of course, in some ways 2013 has been "perfectly respectable", too. Here we have a player who made the semis of the year-end championship, won 45 matches, finished sixth in the world and was able to make the very best players work hard to beat him.
 But of course, cos it's Rog it's seen in a different light. There's really not much pressure on him in 2014 and if he does equally as well as this year then, with his passing 33, it should still be seen as a good year.

I went for 6-7 because that's where getting to quarters in the majority of tournaments, occasional semi or final, plus occasional early round loss gets you. It's so hard to predict though - in recent interviews, Federer seems to put the poor results down to the back issues, but there's no reason to think these won't recur regularly next year too. I think not spending much of the offseason on a exhibition tour in South America will mean he will be better prepared for next season though.

Henman Bill, don't forget to review how we all did in your predictor game:
https://www.606v2.com/t37597-top-6-predictor-game

sfp, yes you make solid points wrt Fed being seen in a "different light" and it will forever be so, right until the day he hangs up his racquet (and takes up responsibility for the daily school run perhaps ... ?!!)

I guess at times you have to do a reality check and remember that there will be bright, promising young things battling it out on the fiercely competitive Challengers, watching an occasional 32 year old Federer match ..... and saying to themselves if I can just get to the level of making even a small percentage of the shots this old guy still makes on his good days ......

YvonneT wrote:I went for 6-7 because that's where getting to quarters in the majority of tournaments, occasional semi or final, plus occasional early round loss gets you. It's so hard to predict though - in recent interviews, Federer seems to put the poor results down to the back issues, but there's no reason to think these won't recur regularly next year too. I think not spending much of the offseason on a exhibition tour in South America will mean he will be better prepared for next season though.

I agree with this sentiment wholeheartedly. I wonder if looking back..that Tour of South America was the necessarily the right thing? Obviously we'll never now. But I do remember thinking at the time...hmm that's not a lot of downtime. Especially after the season he had had.

I know he had large breaks during the season. But a mid-season rest is never the same as shutting down the engines close season. Especially mentally. We'll see I suppose. But for some unkown reason..I'd actually wager he will have a better season next season because he'll be able to have a proper break and pre-season. Saying that I don't expect him to break into the top 3. Top 4 - maybe. But somewhere between 5-8. If he does finish there and has a similiar season again i.e. failing to make serious inroads into GS, I reckon that might be it.

I know he says he loves it blah blah but I wonder if he is putting the poor season down to that Exhibition Tour and niggling issues (which I don't think are mutually exclusive). So with a proper rest and pre-seasons prep he'll feel more confident next year and results will follow. Hence if results are similiar...maybe it's not down to any physical ailmets (outside of those assoicated with gradual decline with age).

Interesting comments there jj re the South American exho tour and rest periods/down time etc.

From all that I saw and read he was feted like an A list pop star on that tour ; and in Buenos Aires he allegedly got a 'bigger' reception than even home boy JMDP, who of course he played a couple of times IIRC. But as you suggest, perhaps the feel-good factor was outweighed by longer-term effects during the following season. I think he was very keen to do the tour, never having played in South America before.

Djoko & Rafa are about to do a similar exho tour in South America ; but age is much more on their side of course ......

summerblues wrote:

Silver wrote:3 or 4. If he puts in the work in the off-season, and gets the intensity back, then there's no reason why he can't be a solid #4, waiting to capitalise if anyone above him dips.

I would have liked to have the option of 3-4 in the poll, as I see it much the same as you do.  As it is, I went with 4-5 instead of 1-3.

Yeah, I would've done the same.

I'm not quite seeing it as negatively as most here, I'm surprised at some of the comments. There's absolutely no way he's going to be outside the top 10 by the end of the year; even if he has another total shocker, as in 2013, he'll be #10 at worst. That's just how I see it though, and I've been wrong before

Personally I think he's going to put in a shedload of work in the off-season, fix the back woes and come out more confident and firing at the start of the season. It could go the other way, of course...and if he has another bad season then even I will lose belief! I think he'll be a solid #4 though, ahead of JMDP and ready to pounce on Murray. We could witness a nice battle between the two of them climbing the rankings together if Fed starts the season well.

Playing how he did in Wimby and USO, probably not in the top 10. It's tough to watch the decline of a skilled athlete. The guy used to be ruthless and rarely mis-hit. The serve used to be so strong, the forehand so powerful and dictating, both are now under scrutiny. If he makes the top 10 in a year I will be stunned. He needs fortunate draws.

JM. You have to reckon that if all the top players play something approaching a full year that it might actually INCREASE Fed's chances of finishing in the top 10.
 The big boys doing well in the slams will probably prevent a repeat of 2013 which saw both Stan and Reechard getting 700-odd points from reaching the USO semis.
  Only problem with this argument is that JWT will be a contender if he does not get injured again. Certainly don't think a top 10 position is out of the question for Rog. Certainly don't think a top eight slot is beyond him, either.

re Lags72

Are they really? That is interesting. Does make me chuckle that players grumble about the length of the tour..and then when the chance comes along for a break..they're off making money. Fed included.

As you say..age is very much on their side. But I'm still suprised. With Fed..in the twilight of his career.. perhaps it was his last chance for a bit of a soiree. I'm suprised at Djokovic (and especially Nadal, who, bizaarrely, is pretty fragile despite being built like the proverbial outside WC) to take this risk.

While their names are firmly etched into the tennis record books I think there is still plenty of 'history' for them to aim for. Especially Djokovic.

lydian wrote:8-10....time waits for no man, not even Federer.

Unless he travels at the speed of light when time stops.

sirfredperry wrote:JM. You have to reckon that if all the top players play something approaching a full year that it might actually INCREASE Fed's chances of finishing in the top 10.
 The big boys doing well in the slams will probably prevent a repeat of 2013 which saw both Stan and Reechard getting 700-odd points from reaching the USO semis.
  Only problem with this argument is that JWT will be a contender if he does not get injured again. Certainly don't think a top 10 position is out of the question for Rog. Certainly don't think a top eight slot is beyond him, either.

Not many of his tournaments will be on indoor hard against geriatric Gasquet and brainfart Delpo.
If he is still top 10 with his lack of weapons these days, I will be hugely surprised.

Stan is getting better, if he cuts out his ballbashing and plays higher percentage he will challenge the likes of Djok/Delpo/Murray, he won more points against Nadal than Nadal against him. Gasquet is another story... a story written by a headcase.

Yvonne, good point, I had forgotten about the predictor game, although I probably have a reminder in my calendar for next week after the Davis Cup.

I will get on over to that thread, or make a new thread.