Finally the final World Tour Finals Final Thread

[JuliusHMarx]

You heard it hear first. Popcorn available in the lobby.

[laverfan]

Djokovic - Group stage - Games W/L 50-40, SF 12-6.

Nadal - Group stage - Games W/L 39-30, SF 13-8.

Promises to be a 3-setter, may be a long one.

[LuvSports!]

I don't think the bbc have got it

[Born Slippy]

BBC have live coverage - BBC3

[LuvSports!]

Wait they have it on bbc3, 7.30

[Born Slippy]

Novak to make it 22 wins in a row. Could well be on 24 leading into his best slam.

[Silver]

Toffee, salted or sweet, Julius?

[Guest]

gotta be the favourite, by a significant margin the more impressive and comfortable of the 2. Does need to make sure theres no walkies though or he may be toast

[CAS]

I think Novak in 2, 6-2 7-5ish

[ALPanorak]

I think Nadal will take this. In spite of his good record this week Novak's performances have been disjointed a lot of the time and I don't think he's up for matching Nadal's intensity.

[socal1976]

I seeing it going three with Novak winning. I think this end of the year run and winning the WTF if he can pull it off will provide a tremendous spring board for possibly overhauling Nadal next season although it will be very tough with Nadal defending nothing from AO and wimby. I think the surface suits Novak better than it does Nadal. Generally, Nadal does not play very well indoors in comparison to his brilliance on all surfaces outdoors and Novak has clearly and without question been the best indoor player on tour over the last 2 years. He ran rampant through the indoor schedule last year as well.

[kingraf]

Not going to work for the next week... So I can watch this match without an eye on the evil that is the clock.

Fact of the matter is - there are ominous signs that the Djokovic-Nadal duopoly seems poised to continue. Both have gone 4-0 against the best of the rest, and both put on searing runs on hard court. Nadal going 25-odd matches unbeaten, Novak currently on about 22. Murray aside, I don't think anyone is even on the same plane as these two when they turn it up. Thats why this match takes a relatively important feel. It's the final opportunity to lay psychological markers against the guy most likely to stand in your path in 2014. Of course whoever loses probably won't reflect to sadly on the defeat. Nadal came back from that psychologically damaging 2011 to win three more slams, besting Djokovic en route to each one. Djokovic has come back from defeats to Nadal in Slams this year very well himself. Recovering from his failed quest for the "Holy Grail" to reach Finals at Wimbledon.

With regards to this week's form -neither man has been in top form this week, but they are just so far ahead, they haven't had to be. Djokovic may be the one feeling a little more tired, as every single round robin match he played went three sets. I can't see Nadal beating Djokovic indoors if both play to their potential, but with Djokovic, especially when pushed, he can get into that "Serbian Dragon" thing of his which can lead to inconsistent play.

Prediction - three sets. Leaning towards Nole.

[socal1976]

Great analysis KR, I think Murray is still a bit away from Nadal and Djoko in consistency more than anything. He seems to struggle more against than field than these two do against other top ten players and top 50 players, which in a 52 week season is pivotal in terms of consistently being in the semis and finals of big events. That being said I think Murray will be back in contention for slams and if not next year maybe the year after will have something to say about the #1 ranking.

As for the match tomorrow I think Novak needs the match tomorrow more than Nadal, he should be hungrier, it is a chance for Djokovic to psychologically get back some of that belief he had against Nadal from 2011 till the start of 2012 clay court campaign.

[Johnyjeep]

KR - couldn't agree more.

However doesn't say much for the current crop of players does it? When the current 1 and 2 players in the world are not at their best, and yet routinely dismiss the best of the best as they have done in this tournament.

Some might say that....no, I can't bring myself to say it.

[HM Murdock]

Despite the high profile nature of the match, I don't think a defeat will harm either player too much unless it ends up being a beat down.

Both players have had season to proud of. Rafa has produced one of his best seasons ever, Novak's autumn form has turned a disappointing season into a very decent one.

I'd say though that Novak needs the win more. Despite the Beijing result, Rafa is still the ascendant one in the rivalry. A win for Novak tonight brings them to 3-3 for the year, and 22-17 overall (13-7 to Novak on HC).

So I'd say a Novak win puts the rivalry back to equilibrium for the start of 2014. A Rafa win means he retains the ascendancy.

A prediction is tough, largely due to Novak. I pretty much know what I'll see from Rafa - a consistent 8/10 performance. He's dropped a little from his stunning American HC form but he's still playing well.

Novak by contrast will likely have patches where he is unplayable and then patches where a first serve and a BH the right side of the lines are conspicuous by their absence!

I'll hedge my bets: if Novak gets a good first serve %, he has the edge. If he doesn't, Rafa has the edge.

[Haddie-nuff]

Correct me if I am wrong (as I know you all will) but isn´t the h 2 h indoors 2 a piece ???.  I wouldn´t put money on this one.. I would suggest that Novak is not as confident as you Socal. Bearing in mind this is the one that has got away from Rafa and he is on a roll.
So Ill have a packet of your Popcorn Julius coz I think this may be a long one. Either way I hope there is no blood spilt.  

[HM Murdock]

Haddie, you are quite right about the indoor H2H.

I don't put a great deal of weight on that particular statistic though as their last meeting was back in 2010 and Novak played with a contact lens missing!

I agree with you about Novak's confidence though. Rafa looks the more confident of the two to me.

[Born Slippy]

Contrary to Murdoch I actually think this match is very important to Novak. The confidence building run he has been on will mean diddly if he can't beat Rafa in a big match in conditions which are more to Novak's liking. He looked imperious yesterday and is in great form.

I think Novak will probably win in straights but if he does lose I think it will cast a long shadow over his 2014 prospects.

[JuliusHMarx]

Haddie, you are quite right about the indoor H2H.

I don't put a great deal of weight on that particular statistic though as their last meeting was back in 2010 and Novak played with a contact lens missing!

It wasn't just missing iirc - he also had 2 or 3 of them stuck in the back of one (or both?) eye.

[Haddie-nuff]

Haddie, you are quite right about the indoor H2H.

I don't put a great deal of weight on that particular statistic though as their last meeting was back in 2010 and Novak played with a contact lens missing!

I agree with you about Novak's confidence though. Rafa looks the more confident of the two to me.

Well Hm statistics tell you what you want them to.. its on the day that matters. I can see the first set being very tight with Rafa dropping his serve first... he is always jittery first set. However, If he WINS the first then be prepared for him to get "secondsetonitis" if he is going to mess up he does it in the second... if it goes to the third... !!! well he who can draw blood first me thinks.

[HM Murdock]

BS, that's a fair point.

If Novak loses tonight though, I think we can be objective enough to say it's been a draining couple of weeks.

He was the whole week in Paris, won the event on the Sunday and had his first match in London on Tuesday. Tonight will be his third day's play in a row, evening sessions all of them.

None of the above should be considered excuses. But if he struggles for form tonight, it's at least understandable. I wouldn't view it as a cause for concern.

[sirfredperry]

There's a 1,000-point swing at stake here and Nole will want to keep close to Rafa, given that Nadal is gonna be top for a while going into 2014.
I'm reckoning Djoko in three sets. It's a fitting end to the season just as last year's final was (one v two that is). Any bets on Rafa being top for the whole of 2014 ? If he does well at his "non-2013" slams - the AO and Wimbledon - there's a distinct possibility. Nole would probably have to win the French to stop him then, and as I've said before Rafa would probaby win RG on only one leg (no legs and I would have to put him down to only reach the final)

[HM Murdock]

Well Hm statistics tell you what you want them to.. its on the day that matters. I can see the first set being very tight with Rafa dropping his serve first... he is always jittery first set.   However, If he WINS  the first then be prepared for him to get "secondsetonitis" if he is going to mess up he does it in the second... if it goes to the third... !!! well he who can draw blood first me thinks.

Haddie, that's funny you think Rafa may be jittery for first set because I almost expect a slow start from Novak too!

I think it's going to be a mental battle tonight. Both are tired, both not quite at their very best. It will come down to who can raise themselves in the big moments.

[socal1976]

Correct me if I am wrong (as I know you all will) but isn´t the h 2 h indoors 2 a piece ???.  I wouldn´t put money on this one.. I would suggest that Novak is not as confident as you Socal. Bearing in mind this is the one that has got away from Rafa and he is on a roll.
So Ill have a packet of your Popcorn Julius coz I think this may be a long one. Either way I hope there is no blood spilt.  

Agreed, Nadal is more than capable of winning, I don't have Novak as heavy favorite I would say a slight favorite as the surface and conditions I feel suit his style of play a bit better. But what is intriguing for me in this rivalry is that either player if he plays well can win on the others preferred surface as Djoko has proven in 3 clay court finals at the 1000 level and Nadal proved with his impressive USO victory. I wouldn't characterize my prediction as confidence, I think it will be close, either man can win it, I just think indoors and on current form I give the nod to Novak. Novak has really had great results throughout his career and particularly the last two years on indoors where as Nadal is probably his most susceptible to defeat on an indoor hardcourt more so than the other surfaces. If I had to give odds it would 55-45 or 60-40 at best.

[Haddie-nuff]

Correct me if I am wrong (as I know you all will) but isn´t the h 2 h indoors 2 a piece ???.  I wouldn´t put money on this one.. I would suggest that Novak is not as confident as you Socal. Bearing in mind this is the one that has got away from Rafa and he is on a roll.
So Ill have a packet of your Popcorn Julius coz I think this may be a long one. Either way I hope there is no blood spilt.  

Agreed, Nadal is more than capable of winning, I don't have Novak as heavy favorite I would say a slight favorite as the surface and conditions I feel suit his style of play a bit better. But what is intriguing for me in this rivalry is that either player if he plays well can win on the others preferred surface as Djoko has proven in 3 clay court finals at the 1000 level and Nadal proved with his impressive USO victory. I wouldn't characterize my prediction as confidence, I think it will be close, either man can win it, I just think indoors and on current form I give the nod to Novak. Novak has really had great results throughout his career and particularly the last two years on indoors where as Nadal is probably his most susceptible to defeat on an indoor hardcourt more so than the other surfaces. If I had to give odds it would 55-45 or 60-40 at best.

Its too close for me to call Socal ... William Huill (our National Bookmakers) is not gonna make anything from me today lol !!!

[socal1976]

There's a 1,000-point swing at stake here and Nole will want to keep close to Rafa, given that Nadal is gonna be top for a while going into 2014.
I'm reckoning Djoko in three sets. It's a fitting end to the season just as last year's final was (one v two that is). Any bets on Rafa being top for the whole of 2014 ? If he does well at his "non-2013" slams - the AO and Wimbledon - there's a distinct possibility. Nole would probably have to win the French to stop him then, and as I've said before Rafa would probaby win RG on only one leg (no legs and I would have to put him down to only reach the final)

It will be next to impossible for Novak to overhaul Nadal if Nadal is healthy for most of the year and Djoko does not take the French from him. That being said can Nadal repeat at the USO, he is a two time champion there but has in the past lost to lesser players before the final. Assuming both are healthy again RG becomes critical as to whether Djokovic can finally breach the walls of that citadel.

[HM Murdock]

But what is intriguing for me in this rivalry is that either player if he plays well can win on the others preferred surface as Djoko has proven in 3 clay court finals at the 1000 level and Nadal proved with his impressive USO victory.

My thoughts exactly.

Whatever surface, whatever court speed, BO3, BO5, doesn't matter. One will be the favourite but it's not at all surprising if the other wins.

There are no caveats like "he needs to win the first set".

It's a true rivalry.

[socal1976]

Correct me if I am wrong (as I know you all will) but isn´t the h 2 h indoors 2 a piece ???.  I wouldn´t put money on this one.. I would suggest that Novak is not as confident as you Socal. Bearing in mind this is the one that has got away from Rafa and he is on a roll.
So Ill have a packet of your Popcorn Julius coz I think this may be a long one. Either way I hope there is no blood spilt.  

Agreed, Nadal is more than capable of winning, I don't have Novak as heavy favorite I would say a slight favorite as the surface and conditions I feel suit his style of play a bit better. But what is intriguing for me in this rivalry is that either player if he plays well can win on the others preferred surface as Djoko has proven in 3 clay court finals at the 1000 level and Nadal proved with his impressive USO victory. I wouldn't characterize my prediction as confidence, I think it will be close, either man can win it, I just think indoors and on current form I give the nod to Novak. Novak has really had great results throughout his career and particularly the last two years on indoors where as Nadal is probably his most susceptible to defeat on an indoor hardcourt more so than the other surfaces. If I had to give odds it would 55-45 or 60-40 at best.

Its too close for me to call Socal ... William Huill (our National Bookmakers) is not gonna make anything from me  today lol !!!

Fair enough don't bet your vacation money on this one either way that is for sure. I am hoping for stress inducing nail bitter.

[Haddie-nuff]

Opps Willim HILL

[JuliusHMarx]

But what is intriguing for me in this rivalry is that either player if he plays well can win on the others preferred surface as Djoko has proven in 3 clay court finals at the 1000 level and Nadal proved with his impressive USO victory.

My thoughts exactly.

Whatever surface, whatever court speed, BO3, BO5, doesn't matter. One will be the favourite but it's not at all surprising if the other wins.

There are no caveats like "he needs to win the first set".

It's a true rivalry.

Actually, Rafa has only once beaten Djoko after losing the first set (except for one other retirement by Djoko).
Djoko has come back 3 times.
So in 37 completed matches the winner of the first set has gone on to win 33 times. Not much point watching after the first set

[HM Murdock]

I don't see winning RG as vital in Novak getting number 1.

I see his performance at IW, Cincy, Canada and USO as more important. Nadal has 5000 points from those four events in his total and cannot gain at all.

Novak, by contrast, has only 1200. There could be some big points swings there.

Nadal has had a remarkable year. But if we reverse only the result of RG, Novak would be number 1. It's closer than it has seemed.

[HM Murdock]

Actually, Rafa has only once beaten Djoko after losing the first set (except for one other retirement by Djoko).
Djoko has come back 3 times.
So in 37 completed matches the winner of the first set has gone on to win 33 times. Not much point watching after the first set

Good knowledge, JHM.

I was thinking more in the sense of needing to win the first set to avoid a long, physical battle, but I concede your statistic!

[Haddie-nuff]

Im glad neither of them think like you do .. I dont think they will give up after the first set. 

[sirfredperry]

I don't see winning RG as vital in Novak getting number 1.

I see his performance at IW, Cincy, Canada and USO as more important. Nadal has 5000 points from those four events in his total and cannot gain at all.

Novak, by contrast, has only 1200. There could be some big points swings there.

Nadal has had a remarkable year. But if we reverse only the result of RG, Novak would be number 1. It's closer than it has seemed.

Good points, literally! There can be huge points swings at some tournaments and big leads can disappear just like that. Having said that, I'm not sure if a top two have ever been so far ahead of the rest, or did it happen during some of the Rog-Raf one-and-two years from around 05-08 ? It's that gap that will be hard to close.
Don't suppose anyone reckons that the current top two WON'T be the top two at the end of 2014. Probably only injury would prevent it. Or, may be or hopefully, an outstanding year from Andy M.

[JuliusHMarx]

Im glad neither of them think like you do .. I dont think they will give up after the first set. 

I'm glad they both think like I do. When I lost the first set, I try even harder to win the second.
Presenting a statistical fact does not represent a way of thinking.

[Haddie-nuff]

Well what was with the not much point in watching after the first set.
And before you tell me it was your attempt at humour.. so was mine in answer

[JuliusHMarx]

Well what was with the not much point in watching after the first set.
And before you tell me it was your attempt at humour.. so was mine in answer

Fair enough then - I've always thought of a wink as a emoticon of humour and an eye-roll as an emoticon of disapproval.

[kingraf]

Of the top of my head - Rafael came back in Madrid 2009, winning 3-6 7-6 7-6 in that four hour thriller. Nole came back from a set down in Indian Wells 2011, and Miami 2011. Can't remember the last one, but it shows how ridiculously well one has to play to win a match between the two after losing a set

[Haddie-nuff]

Actually it wasn´t  meant for you entirely JM..

PS JM you have known me for some time now.. be assured when Im having a GO at YOU PERSONALLY  ..you will know it.     
Howszat ??

[JuliusHMarx]

Actually it wasn´t  meant for you entirely JM..

PS JM you have known me for some time now.. be assured when Im having a GO at YOU PERSONALLY  ..you will know it.     
Howszat ??

OK - when you do, maybe put the boxing gloves in there as well, in case I'm a bit slow (again).

[sirfredperry]

Of the top of my head - Rafael came back in Madrid 2009, winning 3-6 7-6 7-6 in that four hour thriller. Nole came back from a set down in Indian Wells 2011, and Miami 2011. Can't remember the last one, but it shows how ridiculously well one has to play to win a match between the two after losing a set

That Madrid match did Rafa in. He lost to Rog next day, lost at RG and had to miss Wimbledon. What their rivals will be hoping is that Rafa and Nole slog out another six-hour AO final like in 2012. Did that match finish Rafa off for that season, as well?

[Born Slippy]

I don't see winning RG as vital in Novak getting number 1.

I see his performance at IW, Cincy, Canada and USO as more important. Nadal has 5000 points from those four events in his total and cannot gain at all.

Novak, by contrast, has only 1200. There could be some big points swings there.

Nadal has had a remarkable year. But if we reverse only the result of RG, Novak would be number 1. It's closer than it has seemed.

Good points, literally! There can be huge points swings at some tournaments and big leads can disappear just like that. Having said that, I'm not sure if a top two have ever been so far ahead of the rest, or did it happen during some of the Rog-Raf one-and-two years from around 05-08 ? It's that gap that will be hard to close.
Don't suppose anyone reckons that the current top two WON'T be the top two at the end of 2014. Probably only injury would prevent it. Or, may be or hopefully, an outstanding year from Andy M.

I think if you had said after Nole v Rafa US11 that Fed would have passed them both within 9 months you would have been locked up. A lot can change in a few months. However, it does currently look like only Murray can potentially chalkenge them. For all Stan's improvements, the gap to the rest hasn't closed at all this year.

[Born Slippy]

And, of course, we still have the situation that Novak was the second youngest player at the O2. Their nearest rivals (bar Potro) aren't as good and are older than them.

[kingraf]

On hard court, especially. Nole and Rafa were probably only just ahead of the rest pre 2011. Novak changed the game (as they say in rap) in 2011. Talent was great, so was movement, but they now had to be fused into one body. Once that became the standard - it was always going to become a two, sometimes three horse race

[HM Murdock]

Good thought, KR.

It's the movement that's the killer. Rafa, Novak and Andy are just so far ahead of the pack at present that it can cover a multitude of sins. It allows them to have off days and get away with it.

The interesting part to me is that those three players each have different attributes within the general category of "Good Movement".

[socal1976]

But what is intriguing for me in this rivalry is that either player if he plays well can win on the others preferred surface as Djoko has proven in 3 clay court finals at the 1000 level and Nadal proved with his impressive USO victory.

My thoughts exactly.

Whatever surface, whatever court speed, BO3, BO5, doesn't matter. One will be the favourite but it's not at all surprising if the other wins.

There are no caveats like "he needs to win the first set".

It's a true rivalry.

Agreed, one has edge on clay the other on the faster surfaces but it all depends on who is tougher mentally and feeling the ball better on his strings. To me Fedal as I have stated is basically living off the glory of that stunning match in 2008. While Djoko v. Nadal seems more relevant today than it was even at the start of the rivalry. Some of that comes down to the fact that both players are close in age, although that does not tell the whole story as Nadal always seemed to have the beating of Fed in him even in Fed's peak. With this rivalry we have numerous ups and downs where one or the other has been in the ascendancy only to see the other guy come up and snatch the momentum. In my mind we are watching the two best baseliners and two of the best athletes in the history of the game. And unlike other players Novak can match and counter Nadal in ways that no other player can, and Nadal can get inside Novak's head as well when he is on fire. Really when it is all said and done in a few years this will be the rivalry that I think people will anoint as the best we have seen. Novak will most likely never reach the level of fed or nadal in accomplishment but he can take great comfort in the fact that he carved out a huge legacy for himself when other champions simply wilted in the face of the two titans, and that he bloodied the GOATs in his fair share of epic battles.

[JuliusHMarx]

as Nadal always seemed to have the beating of Fed in him even in Fed's peak.

Slightly harsh. Even if we extend Fed's peak to include 2008, it's 12-6 overall and 3 - 5 (in Fed's favour) off clay.
I am impressed, however, that in your hands even an everyday word like 'always' can be used in hyperbolic fashion.

[Born Slippy]

I thought Oz 09 was a better match than Wim 08 - in terms of quality. Arguably Oz 12 was also superior. Those plus Rome 06 are my standout Fedal matches.

[kingraf]

to be fair - Nadal has always led the H2H, which is what I suspect (but highly doubt) SoCal meant.

[Born Slippy]

A fit athlete's peak should be from about 23-30. Fed was 26 at Wimbledon 08. Arguably he played his finest two Fedal matches aged 30 (WTF 11 and IW 12). It is just wrong to try and argue that Fed was past his peak during 08-09.

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