Wales recent record and what it says

by wrfc1980 Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:18 pm

First topic message reminder :

Some may be surprised to hear that Wales have won just 5 of their last 16 games. What has caused this slump or is this the true level of this welsh team. I must admit that I get surprised at some of the praise banded about when the actual results don't back this up. If England had won just 5 of 16 games with one of those wins against a third tier team in Japan I'm sure there would be uproar. So do people agree with my view that Wales are overrated? If not how would you argue against the stat of played 16 won 5?

by butterfingers Tue Nov 12, 2013 2:39 pm

Fly

For all the bickering, of which I'm not interested, lets put it to one side, answer the question...

Lets say Ireland play England, one team gets to play a 6N tournament, followed by a week or 2 off then reunite for a few weeks before playing a freindly, the other team meets up 6 days before kick off. Which prep would you prefer Ireland to have?

by **profitius** Tue Nov 12, 2013 2:53 pm

Looking at Wales over the last number of years one thing has struck me.

Wales need their first 15 more than any other team. Thats because they have some monster backs and the whole attacking gameplan is designed around those backs running hard. Thats hard to defend against. When missing Cuthbert and Roberts like last weekend it meant the overall physicality of the Welsh backline is closer to average which makes things easier. The replacements are physically a step down.

So the big physical advantage is important. In their 30 - 3 win against England this was their team: Wales: Halfpenny; Cuthbert, Davies, Roberts, North; Biggar, Phillips; Jenkins, Hibbard, A Jones, AW Jones, Evans, Warburton, Tipuric, Faletau.
Thats a first choice pick or very near to it. The backline were first choice selections.

by kiakahaaotearoa Tue Nov 12, 2013 2:59 pm

BlueNote wrote:"A photo of a Christmas family lunch is no longer acceptable."

That was Graham Henry, not Gatland!

Hence the new policy on foreign players. Very Happy

by Guest Tue Nov 12, 2013 3:09 pm

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I think Wales are like Australia. The reasons: they have a small domestic set up and a few high profile players overseas. Both have very capable first teams (albeit with inverse skill sets) but struggle with depth.

They play among bigger company with impressive records and yet find a way to compete and accumulate trophies of which other nations would be or are envious.

Who gets competition not only in tests between SA and NZ but also provincial competition? I don't buy this mental fragility thing. I looked at that spanking in the first half by Ireland and how many accumulated defeats from the previous autumn and then saw incredible resolve to pick themselves up and play themselves back into confidence culminating in that incredible performance against England.

Their lack of success is not down to mental fragility. It is down to tactics. If Wales were to swap territories with Australia, I'd be confident that they could reverse their fortunes against one another. Argentina are struggling because they don't have access to Super rugby. If Wales had that and the RC I think their tactics would change on how they attack and score points and that principally is their biggest stumbling block against the 3N teams. England are 2 out of 3 against 3N teams but go a year back and the result is the opposite. England are in a good moment but they too have struggled against SH opposition. Hence my theory.

+1 : Agree with this logic completely.

by Guest Tue Nov 12, 2013 3:10 pm

Scrumpy wrote:What is Gatlands policy of selecting overseas based players?

He hasn't really got one. Or to put it another way, he selects them when he wants to.

by wayne Tue Nov 12, 2013 4:30 pm

Couple of points
1) Butterfingers he has all the Regional players 13 days before the first AI and 6Nations matches.
2) The best team won last Saturday without a doubt, BUT, the last try should not have been awarded, because of Fourie being ahead of the kicker and it would have been a penalty to Wales on or near the Half way line and as we have seen in the past Halfpenny has kicked them.
If that kick had been successful Wales would have been leading by 2 points.

by **Biltong** Tue Nov 12, 2013 4:46 pm

Wayne, the ifs buts and when don' t work mate.

Wales got a couple of fortuitous penalties, non more so than the one Halfpenny begged for whilst lying ontop of Habana.

So no if all things being equal they would not have led. Besides It was inside the Welsh half.

by jimmyinthewell68 Tue Nov 12, 2013 4:51 pm

south Africa deserved the win . Wales was unlucky with early injures . it would have been nice to see jd2 to play the full 80 minutes because we did look a threat with him early on . frustrating to watch tho and some bad tackles led to the first try . can't take anything away from the boks ,they did their job but like i said it would have been interesting to watch without the injures . it totally disrupt our game . priestland didnt have a bad game . first game back against the number twos only is kicking led him down .

by wayne Tue Nov 12, 2013 4:53 pm

Biltong wrote:Wayne, the ifs buts and when don' t work mate.

Wales got a couple of fortuitous penalties, non more so than the one Halfpenny begged for whilst lying ontop of Habana.

So no if all things being equal they would not have led. Besides It was inside the Welsh half.

Sorry Bil, I have seen Halfpenny kick those distances on a number of occasions, and Habana was making no effort whatsoever to get out of there and was a definite penalty.

by Jhamer25 Tue Nov 12, 2013 4:58 pm

Look they won, end off. We can't change that now but we can change what will happen in the future. It isn't the end of the world, we played well and it was a close game (Again)
It's not going to change and I hate making up excuses but the truth is they were that little bit better than us. I bet if it was a series we would definitely get a win over them but we don't and we now have another team to look at.

by Tiger/Chief Tue Nov 12, 2013 5:00 pm

I'm not a wind if merchant but it seems to me that as soon as Wales lose a few key players they don't perform at the same level!

Without Adam Jones Roberts Jd2 and Cuthbert this weekend I believe they will meet beaten by Argentina, with them however I'd pick them to win by at least 15!

Welsh strength in depth is non existent compared to other top tier nations! At there best without a doubt Wales are Europes best, with injuries they are not

by jimmyinthewell68 Tue Nov 12, 2013 5:08 pm

totally agree tiger . good example this summers Japan tour .

by **Biltong** Tue Nov 12, 2013 5:10 pm

Yes wayne, Wales should have won.

by fa0019 Tue Nov 12, 2013 5:19 pm

wayne wrote:Couple of points
1) Butterfingers he has all the Regional players 13 days before the first AI and 6Nations matches.
2) The best team won last Saturday without a doubt, BUT, the last try should not have been awarded, because of Fourie being ahead of the kicker and it would have been a penalty to Wales on or near the Half way line and as we have seen in the past Halfpenny has kicked them.
If that kick had been successful Wales would have been leading by 2 points.

Shame he didn't have the distance in the 2nd Lions test. His range is over-rated. No more then Morne, 3-5 metres more then Wilkinson... not a touch on either Hastings or Frans Steyn.

by Jhamer25 Tue Nov 12, 2013 5:30 pm

fa0019 wrote:
wayne wrote:Couple of points
1) Butterfingers he has all the Regional players 13 days before the first AI and 6Nations matches.
2) The best team won last Saturday without a doubt, BUT, the last try should not have been awarded, because of Fourie being ahead of the kicker and it would have been a penalty to Wales on or near the Half way line and as we have seen in
the past Halfpenny has kicked them.
If that kick had been successful Wales would have been leading by 2 points.
Shame he didn't have the distance in the 2nd Lions test. His range is over-rated. No more then Morne, 3-5 metres more then Wilkinson... not a touch on either Hastings or Frans Steyn.

hahahaha
Over rated kicking distance laughing

Next Joke

by jimmyinthewell68 Tue Nov 12, 2013 5:42 pm

guys guys . you won ,can't you allow us to pretend we might have won it Rolling Eyes

halfpenny kicked a 50 yarder in the 3rd lions test

by The Saint Tue Nov 12, 2013 6:06 pm

Biltong wrote:Yes wayne, Wales should have won.

SA should have won the RWC semi against Australia.

#deaththreatstobryce

by **Biltong** Tue Nov 12, 2013 6:08 pm

Yeah, but they didn't

by The Saint Tue Nov 12, 2013 6:09 pm

Wales didn't (win on saturday) either. And I don't see where anyone has claimed we should have won. Poor comment from you, blue.

by OzT Tue Nov 12, 2013 6:12 pm

Coolly replied bilts clap

by **Biltong** Tue Nov 12, 2013 6:14 pm

Hi OzT, how are you mate?

by OzT Tue Nov 12, 2013 6:20 pm

am doing good mate, if getting a bit chilled up here in London, just starting next week I reckon to get cold. and yourself, enjoining the warmth?

Got to say I was disappointed at our game against the English, we just didn't have a reply to their renewed vigour in the 2nd half, their coach must have had a heck of a half time talk with them. Then again been used to disappointments during the RC. Think we've got the beginning of a side though for next year's RC, can't wait.

Your lot carried on where you left off in Brissie against us, and looking awesome at the mo. strangely enough the kiwis haven't sparked, in my thinking. Or maybe they have not been pushed yet, Japan was a non starter and France didn't seem to scare them too much. Be great if you guys get a tests against them outside the RC in netural grounds, bit liek our 3rd Bledisloe used to be, that would be a cracker of a match.

by Norfolklass Tue Nov 12, 2013 6:38 pm

butterfingers wrote:For all the downfalls of Welsh rugby, Mike Phillips being slow, no strength in depth, no bruising ball carrier in the back row etc there was one incident that highlighted the chasm between NH and SH rugby...

Habana finds himself on the wing facing North, see's Hibbard and another forward inside North, gets inside to get his hands on the ball as early as possible, strips Hibbard and avoids North coming inside before finding support.

2nd half, very similar place on the pitch, near the 22 ball gets shipped left from the touchline, Hook finds himself with a prop and hooker in front of him, he didn't see them there, he just received ball and found himself there, he crabs 10 metres forward and sideways to deliver a pass 3 metres before contact that allows the prop to cover 3 backs outside him.

The difference between SH and NH rugby is innate ability, and instinct for recognising and reacting to whats possible, and having the potential to execute what you have seen, the difference is in mini rugby, everything else is done near exactly the same worldwide!

That is an observation I agree entirely with and the reason Hook has never matured into the player I hoped he'd become.

by **Biltong** Tue Nov 12, 2013 7:54 pm

OzT wrote:am doing good mate, if getting a bit chilled up here in London, just starting next week I reckon to get cold. and yourself, enjoining the warmth?

Got to say I was disappointed at our game against the English, we just didn't have a reply to their renewed vigour in the 2nd half, their coach must have had a heck of a half time talk with them. Then again been used to disappointments during the RC. Think we've got the beginning of a side though for next year's RC, can't wait.

Your lot carried on where you left off in Brissie against us, and looking awesome at the mo. strangely enough the kiwis haven't sparked, in my thinking. Or maybe they have not been pushed yet, Japan was a non starter and France didn't seem to scare them too much. Be great if you guys get a tests against them outside the RC in netural grounds, bit liek our 3rd Bledisloe used to be, that would be a cracker of a match.

The OZ vs England game was just one of those times where you just weren't going to win, no matter what, didn't get going, didn't get to control the match and a few bounces went the wrong way. i am beginning to feel a bit sorry for McKenzie though, he is beginning to cop some flack from Ozzie supporters, but he has had a year full of very tough opponents.

I exoect the Ireland game is going to be telling.

I agree NZ hasn't hit their straps yet, but they keep winning, that is a sign of a very good team.

We still have Scotland and France to go, two matches I exoect will oush us hard, if we do manage to get through unbeaten I will be seriously impressed.

Lots to play for in the next two weekends, and then it is back to Super Rugby.

by OzT Tue Nov 12, 2013 9:51 pm

I can't say they'll be real supporters if they're bagging McKenzie so soon. Should always give a coach some time to get his style into the side, and the games we've lost under him were not against the so called 2nd tier of rugby. England, SA and NZ can all win games on their own merit, no shame in losing. I hope they get behind him and the team. Least the team seems more settled with his style, so far.

I disagree with you there on your games. Much as I respect the Scots, probably cause they have beaten us a few times now, they haven't got the firepower or players to trouble the boks much. france, hmm, well that old saying, who knows?

Wish you guys the best as always (cept when you play us)

by TJ Wed Nov 13, 2013 8:21 am

The scots not having the firepower to trouble the Boks? We gave them a scare in the summer without some of our best players. Injuries have robbed us of some key players again but the Boks would be foolish to underestimate us.

by **Biltong** Wed Nov 13, 2013 8:46 am

I don't think the BOks underestimate any opponent, they have learnt that from soundly beating Argentina at home and struggling to play them away. Heyneke Meyer has admitted that the Boks tried to open things up too soon against Argentina in Mendoza and it cost them.

Here is the team Scotland faced in June, in bold the new players most likely for this weekend.

15 Willie le Roux
14 Bryan Habana
13 JJ Engelbrecht - Jaque Fourie
12 Jean de Villiers (c)
11 Bjorn Basson - JP Pietersen
10 Morne Steyn
9 Ruan Pienaar
1 Tendai Mtawarira
2 Adriaan Strauss
3 Jannie du Plessis - Lourens Adriaanse/Frans Malherbe
4 Eben Etzebeth - Bakkies Botha
5 Juandre Kruger - Pieter Steph du toit
6 Marcell Coetzee - Francois Louw
7 Arno Botha - Willem Alberts
8 Pierre Spies - Duane Vermeulen

Replacements
16 Bismarck du Plessis
17 Trevor Nyakane
18 Coenie Oosthuizen
19 Flip van der Merwe
20 Siya Kolisi
21 Piet van Zyl
22 Pat Lambie
23 Jan Serfontein

the big difference here is that the backrow in June was an inexperienced lot with Pierre SPies, this backrow is much more formidable, and you including Bakkies botha, the Backline is boosted with JP Pietersen and Jaque fourie.

by OzT Wed Nov 13, 2013 8:50 am

Not diminishing the Scots TJ, they have fine players. But I think at the mo the boks are the bigger and physically stronger side, which is what I meant by firepower.

I do know what the Scots can do, after all we've (Wallabies) lost to them at home and away to know Scots are a good side.

by The Saint Wed Nov 13, 2013 4:59 pm

TJ wrote:The scots not having the firepower to trouble the Boks? We gave them a scare in the summer without some of our best players. Injuries have robbed us of some key players again but the Boks would be foolish to underestimate us.

I'm sure nobody is underestimating the perennial 'dark horses.'

Hug

I can't see past another Bok victory BTW. That is some squad they have.

by fa0019 Wed Nov 13, 2013 5:27 pm

Weather doesn't look like a storm is brewing or rain even falling so it cuts the chances of victory.
Still it depends how experimental the boks go. I think Meyer may drop Alberts and play a more expansive player such as Coetzee or Kolisi.

If Bismarck, Habana or Du Preez play I think it will be too much for Scotland. Otherwise I think Scotland can match their players especially with Fourie & Pietersen not quite back to test match standard yet.

by Luckless Pedestrian Thu Nov 14, 2013 8:11 am

fa0019 wrote:Weather doesn't look like a storm is brewing or rain even falling so it cuts the chances of victory.

In fairness, dry weather and good conditions would suit Scotland, the way they play now.

by **Biltong** Thu Nov 14, 2013 8:56 am

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
fa0019 wrote:Weather doesn't look like a storm is brewing or rain even falling so it cuts the chances of victory.
In fairness, dry weather and good conditions would suit Scotland, the way they play now.

It will also suit the Springboks. Wales recent record and what it says - Page 3 3933776953

by beshocked Thu Nov 14, 2013 9:11 am

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
fa0019 wrote:Weather doesn't look like a storm is brewing or rain even falling so it cuts the chances of victory.
In fairness, dry weather and good conditions would suit Scotland, the way they play now.

What way would you say Scotland play?

by Luckless Pedestrian Thu Nov 14, 2013 9:25 am

Well it's not ten-man rugby. A slugfest in the rain wouldn't help them.

by fa0019 Thu Nov 14, 2013 9:27 am

wet weather doesn't help anyone... but some teams are better at adapting then others. One of them is Scotland. One of them who isn't is the boks.

by beshocked Thu Nov 14, 2013 9:42 am

Luckless pedestrian strange I have always seen Scotland as wet weather specialists with every player praying for rain.

by fa0019 Thu Nov 14, 2013 9:50 am

SA get its fair share of rain. The top 2 sides in SA (Sharks and Stormers) play many of their CC home matches in awful conditions. Yet for some reason they don't like it on the international scene. Certainly nullifies chaps like Habana who is on fire at the moment.

by beshocked Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:26 am

fa0019 I agree. South Africa's backline is underrated in my opinion.

by The Saint Sun Nov 17, 2013 6:27 pm

wrfc1980 wrote:My prediction is that Wales will only win 1 of their 4 autumn games against Tonga. If they had beaten sa they would probably have won them all. That's the fine line this welsh team treads

Wales 40 - 6 Arg. Nice prediction! Laugh

by Scratch Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:44 pm

fact is the welsh way is that we may win this week and then lose next week, we win 6 Nations at will and get hammered in the Autumn….yet also provide the core of a winning lions side, it's unbearable as a fan to not have confidence your side will win and yet when we do we briefly feel it before being hurled back into the maelstrom of uncertainty that is a given for all welsh fans, that is the cross we have to bear and perhaps the reason welsh fans may seem so bl00dy tense!

by wrfc1980 Sun Nov 17, 2013 8:53 pm

A justified prediction based on ow terrible Wales record has been in the autumn nd on how average their record has been over the lat 16 games

by The Saint Sun Nov 17, 2013 8:56 pm

Having our first team beat other highly ranked teams 30-3 and 40-6, and not concede a try for 4 games in a row is not too bad a recent record if you ask me.

boxing

by wrfc1980 Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:59 am

6 wins in the last 17 games is pretty poor to me!

by **Biltong** Mon Nov 18, 2013 9:06 am

wrfc1980 wrote:6 wins in the last 17 games is pretty poor to me!

You've been playing the same song since you opened the thread. Time for some new material mate.

by Guest Mon Nov 18, 2013 10:30 am

I get the annoyance with Wales and our inconsistency. It's very frustrating as a fan. I was genuinely anxious that we might lose against Arg on Saturday, but to then beat them by 40 points suggests that I should have been a bit confident. Frustrating, because the anxiety and lack of confidence is because we do lose games that we should (on paper) win - we've been doing it for years. I think we have had more shock defeats than most - Romania, Samoa, Fiji, Japan, etc. (people outside of Wales were shocked by these results too, so I don't think it's arrogance expecting us to have won these game).

What really confuses me is that the French are very similar - the old cliche of 'which France will turn up' - and when they lose it's just a shrug of the shoulders by the rest of the world, a je ne sais quoi, the French being French, etc. The French seem to be held in a less negative light for their inconsistency than us! Not complaining, just find it a bit strange!

by munkian Mon Nov 18, 2013 11:22 am

We won because we were missing our key players in our normal game plan we chose a different one than just 'bosh it'

Wales play some heads up rugby and win 'shocker' - felt I'd gone back to 2005 at various points and I loved it.

Don't want a loose game agaisnt Tonga mind

by mystiroakey Mon Nov 18, 2013 11:27 am

"the old cliche of 'which France will turn up'"

as you point out its a cliche and it may apply- but the fact is it applies to almost every team including wales , aus and even england. France are allways let of for there inconstancies,The rest of us are not. Because lets make no beef over it. That is what the statement boils down to , nothing else.

by The Saint Mon Nov 18, 2013 3:07 pm

wrfc1980 wrote:6 wins in the last 17 games is pretty poor to me!

10 games played this year, 6 of those were wins including 30-3 and 40-6 wins against good teams. One loss because of a third string sent to Japan. 6 from 10 is not bad.

by The Saint Mon Nov 18, 2013 3:10 pm

Griff wrote:

What really confuses me is that the French are very similar - the old cliche of 'which France will turn up' - and when they lose it's just a shrug of the shoulders by the rest of the world, a je ne sais quoi, the French being French, etc. The French seem to be held in a less negative light for their inconsistency than us! Not complaining, just find it a bit strange!

Hence why I posted an article asking why is only Wales get the criticism. France don't. Argentina lose to the big 3 left right and centre and nobody cares. So it was a bit premature of you to dismiss my article which has now turned into a constructive discussion now that the vultures have come out of the denial closet.

by fa0019 Mon Nov 18, 2013 3:12 pm

Don't think you can really say Argentina is a good side. They have won 1 game this year vs. Georgia.

They have also experienced the following losses.

SA 73-13
NZ 33-15
AUS 54-17
ENG 31 -12
WAL 40-06

If they were to play Scotland or Italy... they'd get beat.

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