Heineken Cup 2014 Knockout Stages

First topic message reminder :

Thought it would be good to gauge who people think will go all the way.  I don't think there has ever been a tougher year to pick the winner, its being hyped as the most competitive last 8 the HC has ever seen and that is saying something.  The last 8 this season have won 13 Heineken Cups out of 18 Cups in total.

Quarter finals are:

Ulster vs Saracens

Clermont vs Leicester Tigers 

Toulon vs Leinster

Munster vs Toulouse

Semi finals:

Ulster / Saracens v Clermont / Leciester

Toulon / Leinster v Munster / Toulouse

Bookies odds:

Clermont Auvergne 9/4
Toulon 3/1
Ulster 6/1
Leinster 7/1
Munster 8/1
Saracens 10/1
Toulouse 12/1
Leicester 35/1

Lets see if v2 can predict the 2014 HC winner.

Artful_Dodger wrote:ERC European Player of the Year 2014 longlist
Steffon Armitage (Toulon) 
Miles Benjamin (Leicester Tigers) 
Sean Cronin (Leinster Rugby) 
Jean-Marc Doussain (Toulouse)
Matt Giteau (Toulon) 
Alex Goode (Saracens)
Cian Healy (Leinster Rugby)
Fritz Lee (ASM Clermont Auvergne)
George North (Northampton Saints)
Paul O'Connell (Munster Rugby)
Peter O'Mahony (Munster Rugby)
Louis Picamoles (Toulouse)
Ruan Pienaar (Ulster Rugby)
Sitiveni Sivivatu (ASM Clermont Auvergne)
Jonny Wilkinson (Toulon)

Pienaar for me. Maybe O'Mahony, they have both had huge impacts on getting their teams home quarter finals

Saracens to overcome Ulster.

Clermont to dispatch the Tigers

Toulon to grind a win out over Leinster

Munster to beat Toulouse.

Semis: Sarries lose at home V Clermont again

Toulon to win at home V Munster

Final: repeat heartbreak for Clermont and Toulon retain their title and take full advantage of their home 1/4 and 1/2 semi-finals.

Should make for great viewing though.

wolfball wrote:

Artful_Dodger wrote:ERC European Player of the Year 2014 longlist
Steffon Armitage (Toulon) 
Miles Benjamin (Leicester Tigers) 
Sean Cronin (Leinster Rugby) 
Jean-Marc Doussain (Toulouse)
Matt Giteau (Toulon) 
Alex Goode (Saracens)
Cian Healy (Leinster Rugby)
Fritz Lee (ASM Clermont Auvergne)
George North (Northampton Saints)
Paul O'Connell (Munster Rugby)
Peter O'Mahony (Munster Rugby)
Louis Picamoles (Toulouse)
Ruan Pienaar (Ulster Rugby)
Sitiveni Sivivatu (ASM Clermont Auvergne)
Jonny Wilkinson (Toulon)

Pienaar for me. Maybe O'Mahony, they have both had huge impacts on getting their teams home quarter finals

If it was based on the pool stages I think Pienaar would get it hands down, but performances in the knockouts will probably have more say than the pools.

Pienaar for me, by a long way.

Healy and Steffon Armitage close behind him.

Got to go home advantage all the way which would mean an Ulster v Toulon final. Can't believe there's so many votes for Clermont and so little for Toulon.

SecretFly wrote:Do I detect a certain Come Home Paddy Reilly to Ballyjamesduff in the fond memories of Mark McCall?  

I mean not now of course, but when and if present incumbent leaves?

He and David Humphreys are and remain lifelong friends. Some times its not good to mix business with pleasure... right now, I want Anscombe to sign a new deal.

Artful_Dodger wrote:

wolfball wrote:

Artful_Dodger wrote:ERC European Player of the Year 2014 longlist
Steffon Armitage (Toulon) 
Miles Benjamin (Leicester Tigers) 
Sean Cronin (Leinster Rugby) 
Jean-Marc Doussain (Toulouse)
Matt Giteau (Toulon) 
Alex Goode (Saracens)
Cian Healy (Leinster Rugby)
Fritz Lee (ASM Clermont Auvergne)
George North (Northampton Saints)
Paul O'Connell (Munster Rugby)
Peter O'Mahony (Munster Rugby)
Louis Picamoles (Toulouse)
Ruan Pienaar (Ulster Rugby)
Sitiveni Sivivatu (ASM Clermont Auvergne)
Jonny Wilkinson (Toulon)

Pienaar for me. Maybe O'Mahony, they have both had huge impacts on getting their teams home quarter finals

If it was based on the pool stages I think Pienaar would get it hands down, but performances in the knockouts will probably have more say than the pools.

Actually I don't agree, I think Jackson and Payne were much more influential for Ulster in the early pool stages - Pienaar has had a fairly patchy season to be honest.

His performance in the last 30 against the Tigers was a masterclass though and his place kicking has been world class over the last few weeks. On balance I'd have Payne on there before him.

Artful_Dodger wrote:

wolfball wrote:

Artful_Dodger wrote:ERC European Player of the Year 2014 longlist
Steffon Armitage (Toulon) 
Miles Benjamin (Leicester Tigers) 
Sean Cronin (Leinster Rugby) 
Jean-Marc Doussain (Toulouse)
Matt Giteau (Toulon) 
Alex Goode (Saracens)
Cian Healy (Leinster Rugby)
Fritz Lee (ASM Clermont Auvergne)
George North (Northampton Saints)
Paul O'Connell (Munster Rugby)
Peter O'Mahony (Munster Rugby)
Louis Picamoles (Toulouse)
Ruan Pienaar (Ulster Rugby)
Sitiveni Sivivatu (ASM Clermont Auvergne)
Jonny Wilkinson (Toulon)

Pienaar for me. Maybe O'Mahony, they have both had huge impacts on getting their teams home quarter finals

If it was based on the pool stages I think Pienaar would get it hands down, but performances in the knockouts will probably have more say than the pools.

Correct, Wilkinson won it last year based on kicking a few DGs and pens in the knockout stages. Until then Sivivatu was nailed on.

Has rugby become too obsessed with kickers?  Afterall, yes - they stand out from the crowd because they get the dramatic moments of tense silence before they go to work.  So in todays very visual world, that marks them out as screen heros or devils.  Yes, they can kick some amazing shots on target.  But that is their job, their role - what they're paid to do, their single part in a 15 to 23 man team effort.

BUT... I think it's going a little too far.  Game saviours always? - Best players of the year?  Best players in the game?

I think they get a little too much attention simply because as humans we like the drama of sport and their roll sets them apart and isolates them for about three or four minutes in every game.  The cinematic silences before the defining moments as the lone figure stands and prepares.  

So I get why they are a crowd (and 'Best Player') magnet but no kicker kicks unless his team-mates are doing their work - working through phases up the field for drop-kick range, scoring tries, forcing penalties on the opposition.

Kickers get the limelight, and for sure they have to be good quality players under it - but just a little too much kudos goes their way for the efforts of their team mates in creating the kicking chances in the first place.  Yes, they have other duties (usually at 10) that can heighten their value but that's the point, I really need to see the whole package before I ever get too carried away by kickers simply kicking.

I have to say that is a nonsense list.

rodders wrote:I have to say that is a nonsense list.

Which in particular do you disagree with?

beshocked wrote:

rodders wrote:I have to say that is a nonsense list.

Which in particular do you disagree with?

All of it apart from Sivuvatu, O'Connell and North..

The QFs are upon us (well in 2 weeks time anyway) so I resurected that old thread ...

here's some fresh info with the referee names:
- Nigel Owens for Munster-Toulouse.
- Alain Rolland for Clemeront- Leicester
- Wayne Barnes for Toulon-Leinster
- Jérôme Garces for Ulster-Saracens

Wayne Barnes for England v Leinster?

Strange choice that! There will be controversy.

SecretFly wrote:Wayne Barnes for England v Leinster?

Strange choice that!  There will be controversy.

agree, same goes with Alain Rolland for France B vs Tigers will say some English fans..and this place thrive on controversy anyway

where did all those nice neutral SH refs go?

Saracens with 25% of the vote, really? I would have them as the least likely of all quarter finalists to win the tournament.

Its between Ulster and Clermont I reckon. Leinster, Toulon and Toulouse outside bets. Leicester, Munster and Sarries long shots.

England only in 4th place in Toulon's 40 man HC squad.

23 non French

17 France
7 South Aftica
5 New Zealand
4 England
2 Georgia
2 Australia
1 Fiji
1 Argentina
1 Italy

Ah but sure we can count the Saffas and Kiwis as English. I mean the RFU do so why not us............   

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:England only in 4th place in Toulon's 40 man HC squad.

23 non French

17 France
7 South Aftica
5 New Zealand
4 England
2 Georgia
2 Australia
1 Fiji
1 Argentina
1 Italy

It doesnt matter how many English players there are its still Jonny Wilkinson's Toulon.

GunsGerms wrote:Saracens with 25% of the vote, really? I would have them as the least likely of all quarter finalists to win the tournament.

Its between Ulster and Clermont I reckon. Leinster, Toulon and Toulouse outside bets. Leicester, Munster and Sarries long shots.

Least likely to win? Not quite sure I believe that. Certainly ahead of Leicester and Toulouse in the estimations.

How can you have Toulouse ahead of Munster in your estimations? Toulouse would have to win two matches away before the final.

Probably the reason people have voted for Saracens is that they are one of the more likely away quarter finalist winners. Surely if an English side can prevail vs Ulster it will be one with a overall 4-1 head to head and one who won the last encounter.

As to whether they could beat Clermont - that's a question that would only be answered with an encounter.

beshocked wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:Saracens with 25% of the vote, really? I would have them as the least likely of all quarter finalists to win the tournament.

Its between Ulster and Clermont I reckon. Leinster, Toulon and Toulouse outside bets. Leicester, Munster and Sarries long shots.

How can you have Toulouse ahead of Munster in your estimations? Toulouse would have to win two matches away before the final.

.

I wouldnt read too much into this Guns has a real gripe / chip on his shoulder with Munster.  

Was going to post someone updated odds from the bookies, but they haven't moved, not surprisingly. The one exception being that Leinster have gone from 7/1 to 6/1.

Oh and if Leicester had little to no chance before hand it's just got tougher.....Alain "I haven't got a French father" Rolland is looking after the Clermont-Leicester game.....

Ulster-Saracens - has Gerome Garces - that's okay.

Munster vs Toulouse - Nigel Owens.

Toulon vs Leinster - you get Wayne Barnes.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sport/rugby/ulster-rugby/french-referee-jerome-garces-to-officiate-at-ulsters-heineken-cup-quarterfinal-30121982.html

If we had Owen's Id go as far as to say we would be favourites in that game. But Barnes would have heen my 2nd choice anyway, so I'm happy enough with that.

This has to be the best QF line up in HC history! Cant wait.

Interesting that the predictions above have 75% of the votes going to 3 teams that are all on the same half of the draw. Something doesn't make sense there to me.

beshocked wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:Saracens with 25% of the vote, really? I would have them as the least likely of all quarter finalists to win the tournament.

Its between Ulster and Clermont I reckon. Leinster, Toulon and Toulouse outside bets. Leicester, Munster and Sarries long shots.

Least likely to win? Not quite sure I believe that. Certainly ahead of Leicester and Toulouse in the estimations.

How can you have Toulouse ahead of Munster in your estimations? Toulouse would have to win two matches away before the final.

Probably the reason people have voted for Saracens is that they are one of the more likely away quarter finalist winners. Surely if an English side can prevail vs Ulster it will be one with a overall 4-1 head to head and one who won the last encounter.

As to whether they could beat Clermont - that's a question that would only be answered with an encounter.

Toulouse have looked good in the top14. Munster were dire in their last game v Treviso. Toulouse have won the Hcup 4 times, dont think you can ever write them off.

BlueMuff wrote:

beshocked wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:Saracens with 25% of the vote, really? I would have them as the least likely of all quarter finalists to win the tournament.

Its between Ulster and Clermont I reckon. Leinster, Toulon and Toulouse outside bets. Leicester, Munster and Sarries long shots.

How can you have Toulouse ahead of Munster in your estimations? Toulouse would have to win two matches away before the final.

.

I wouldnt read too much into this Guns has a real gripe / chip on his shoulder with Munster.  

Sure Toulouse have much more Heineken cup pedigree than Munster. That is a fact, 4 trophies to 2, Munster were also dire in their last game v Treviso and Toulouse were epic in their last game. Its a no brainer really.

Toulouse looked very impressive last weekend against SF...a first trip to Thomond park is something Guy Noves would relish....they are in rude health (hopefully Toulon knock the wind out of their sails this weekend)

Munster are going to rise from the ashes again. It is written.

SecretFly wrote:Munster are going to rise from the ashes again.  It is written.

Meh...you never know...we could go ballistic and win pulling up or we could fall flat on our faces...

Could be either................. but I gotta feeling, ME.

And my feelings are either dead right...or dead wrong.

The feeling though is that Munster could pull this off.

GunsGerms wrote:

beshocked wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:Saracens with 25% of the vote, really? I would have them as the least likely of all quarter finalists to win the tournament.

Its between Ulster and Clermont I reckon. Leinster, Toulon and Toulouse outside bets. Leicester, Munster and Sarries long shots.

Least likely to win? Not quite sure I believe that. Certainly ahead of Leicester and Toulouse in the estimations.

How can you have Toulouse ahead of Munster in your estimations? Toulouse would have to win two matches away before the final.

Probably the reason people have voted for Saracens is that they are one of the more likely away quarter finalist winners. Surely if an English side can prevail vs Ulster it will be one with a overall 4-1 head to head and one who won the last encounter.

As to whether they could beat Clermont - that's a question that would only be answered with an encounter.

Toulouse have looked good in the top14. Munster were dire in their last game v Treviso. Toulouse have won the Hcup 4 times, dont think you can ever write them off.

Toulouse looks a bit better than earlier in the season but they are now paying for their lack of consistency and bonus points.
They just played Stade Français last weekend (great game but a draw is not the result both teams expected) and have now to play in Toulon this weekend. Their current standing is 6th and could well drop to 7th with Racing and Bordeaux just behind. If they dont get one away win at the very least it would mean no european champions cup for them next year. It is evident to me that they will have to make a choice specially this year so not sure how strong they will be against Munster let anone in the semis.

It's interesting looking at the top 14 table. Seems to be very competitive though I suppose it would be with the inability to win away from home.

The race for HC places will really go down to the wire for the French clubs.

It's quite funny that the votes have either gone to teams who have not won the HC before - Clermont and Saracens or to a side that has not won it for a long time - Ulster.

Clermont seem to be the darlings of the bookies again yet have not picked up the elusive HC.

If Saracens can beat Ulster then 10/1 looks pretty good odds.

Certainly are intriguing quarter finals.

Interesting stat: Munster are closing in on Toulouse as having:

1) Played the most games in Europe. Toulouse 137. Munster 136.
2) Most wins in Europe: Toulouse 97. Munster 96.
3) Losses in Europe: Toulouse 39. Munster 36.

Sin é wrote:Interesting stat: Munster are closing in on Toulouse as having:

1) Played the most games in Europe.  Toulouse 137. Munster 136.
2) Most wins in Europe:  Toulouse 97. Munster 96.
3) Losses in Europe: Toulouse 39.  Munster 36.

Trophies?

Gunsgerms if it's just the amount of trophies that matter then of course Toulouse should be the clear favourites for the HC.

By your logic the favourites for the HC title are in this order:

1.Toulouse
2.Leinster
3.Tigers
4.Munster
5.Toulon
6.Ulster
7.Clermont
8.Saracens

So basically the three teams with the most votes would be the underdogs.  

Toulouse 4. Munster 2.

After this season, Munster will just be one short of them there too.

Sin's got a point here!!!

beshocked wrote:Gunsgerms if it's just the amount of trophies that matter then of course Toulouse should be the clear favourites for the HC.

By your logic the favourites for the HC title are in this order:

1.Toulouse
2.Leinster
3.Tigers
4.Munster
5.Toulon
6.Ulster
7.Clermont
8.Saracens

So basically the three teams with the most votes would be the underdogs.  

Read my posts, my logic was also based on form. Sarries probably should be underdogs no clue how they are favorites albeit I know they are doing well in the AP but they face Ulster in Raven Hill so that rules them out for me.

Clermont are top of the top 14 and have been one of the best teams in Europe for the last few years.

My favorites are Ulster and Clermont.

GunsGerms wrote:

Sin é wrote:Interesting stat: Munster are closing in on Toulouse as having:

1) Played the most games in Europe.  Toulouse 137. Munster 136.
2) Most wins in Europe:  Toulouse 97. Munster 96.
3) Losses in Europe: Toulouse 39.  Munster 36.

Trophies?

Least number of home defeats ever in the History of HC?

Do you get a trophy for that of something?

beshocked wrote:It's interesting looking at the top 14 table. Seems to be very competitive though I suppose it would be with the inability to win away from home.

indeed. the fact that the leader of the T14 won only 13 out of 22 games seems wrong . at the same time a team with 9 wins out of 21 is facing relegation so you can assess how bad those teams want to win at home. the gap between the super clubs and the rest has also decreased. you dont get the usual cannon fodder teams like Mont de Marsan , Montauban , Bourgouin , Albi or La Rochelle anymore (although there could be an argument on Biarritz who has been really substandart this season). the teams that have replaced them are stronger and bigger (grenoble, bordeaux) and although they dont all have big budgets they have better local support and can build on that.

Really gunsgerms? You seem to be praising Toulouse. Saying they have a better chance than Munster.

I find it strange that you talk about Toulouse's 4 titles yet then praise Clermont who have 0 HCs so far.

Clermont might be top of the top 14 but they've lost 8 games in that competition.

You don't think Saracens can win at Ravenhill yet you think Toulouse can beat Munster at Thomond Park? Baffling....

You think that Ravenhill is a tougher place to go than Thomond Park?

Grenoble have good coaches too.   

BlueMuff wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:

Sin é wrote:Interesting stat: Munster are closing in on Toulouse as having:

1) Played the most games in Europe.  Toulouse 137. Munster 136.
2) Most wins in Europe:  Toulouse 97. Munster 96.
3) Losses in Europe: Toulouse 39.  Munster 36.

Trophies?

Least number of home defeats ever in the History of HC?

Yea, that one as well.

I mentioned it because Toulouse & Munster are the most experienced & consistent teams in Europe and have been there, or there abouts for a long time.

Leinster is next, and then Leicester I think (just updated with their figures) and thrown Clermont for comparison.

1) Played the most games in Europe. Toulouse 137. Munster 136. Leinster 127. Leicester 123. Clermont 74.
2) Most wins in Europe: Toulouse 97. Munster 96. Leinster 86. Leicester 81. Clermont 44.
3) Losses in Europe: Toulouse 39. Munster 36. Leinster 38. Leicester 37. Clermont 29.

beshocked wrote:Really gunsgerms? You seem to be praising Toulouse. Saying they have a better chance than Munster.

I find it strange that you talk about Toulouse's 4 titles yet then praise Clermont who have 0 HCs so far.

Clermont might be top of the top 14 but they've lost 8 games in that competition.

You don't think Saracens can win at Ravenhill yet you think Toulouse can beat Munster at Thomond Park? Baffling....

Yep. I think they are a better side than Munster. Whats the big deal? Did you see Munster play Treviso on Saturday? The TMO gifted Munster two non-tries and Munster won 14-3. They were dire and Treviso really should have won. Toulouse had a harder group than Munster.

Toulouse are obviously better than Sarries as they topped their group.

Ulster are a much better side than Munster IMO and went unbeaten in quite a tough group so rightly one of the favorites.

Munster had the easiest group in this years group stages by a long shot but still lost a game to Edinburgh.

Gunsgerms we'll see.

Toulouse lost to Connacht at home - blew a HC home quarter final. I would say that's a pretty poor show. Worse than Munster's show vs Edinburgh.

Toulouse had a harder group than Munster? Not sure I agree. Both were pretty weak.

Pool stages are irrelevant now anyway. If you want to base Ulster's chances on that then sure let's hand them the title now.  

If Ulster are so much better than Munster then why are they below Munster in the Pro12?

Personally I think you are overestimating Ulster and underestimating Munster.

Munster are one of those sides that seems to continually perform well in the HC.

Guns...the only thing I'll say to all that is you know only too well, as an Irish based observer, how crafty Munster have been over the years.  Few sides are at the races with Munster in terms of gameplaying savvy and setting up observing suckers for a fall.

If Munster do 'dire' at the business end of HEC, I'll be surprised indeed.  If they do 'dire' against Leinster at the weekend, I'll be surprised (but even then, I'll suspect they are still holding back)

Munster are past masters at these feinting punch-drunk, wounded-bird boxer antics.  If they have you believing Treviso is all they're capable of then they're once again bluffing everyone when their history suggests they have no right to be still able to pull those tricks off.

http://www.ercrugby.com/matchcentre/munster_rugby.php?section=0

59 wins, 5 losses at home for Munster in the HC. 92% win

http://www.ercrugby.com/matchcentre/ulster_rugby.php

41 wins, 1 draw, 16 losses for Ulster in the HC at home. 71% win


Against these you have Toulouse with 39 wins, 2 draws, 27 losses - 57% away record.


http://www.ercrugby.com/matchcentre/toulouse.php


Saracens with 13 wins, 11 losses away from home in HC - 54%

http://www.ercrugby.com/matchcentre/saracens.php


So in conclusion - Thomond Park is a much tougher venue to go to than Ravenhill. Toulouse are slightly better away from home overall than Saracens but 54% is still a good stat.

Fly, I think Munster may have lost a bit of that Heineken Cup craftiness at halfback. ROG's experience is a big loss there. Not sure if its a year too soon for Murray to take over ROG's mantle.

Munster are probably another year or two off being winners and winning in Toulon is too big an ask I think for Leinster (especially with JW retiring).

I'd say Ulster have a really good chance though this year and they would be my favourites to win.

GunsGerms wrote:

beshocked wrote:Really gunsgerms? You seem to be praising Toulouse. Saying they have a better chance than Munster.

I find it strange that you talk about Toulouse's 4 titles yet then praise Clermont who have 0 HCs so far.

Clermont might be top of the top 14 but they've lost 8 games in that competition.

You don't think Saracens can win at Ravenhill yet you think Toulouse can beat Munster at Thomond Park? Baffling....

Yep. I think they are a better side than Munster. Whats the big deal? Did you see Munster play Treviso on Saturday? The TMO gifted Munster two non-tries and Munster won 14-3. They were dire and Treviso really should have won. .

You really do make me laugh Guns - why do you hate Munster so much? Are you seriously saying that Munster should be judged on the basis of the treviso game? Why not use the match where Munster beat Leinster only a few months ago, or only 3 defeats this whole season.

And are you seriously saying that Treviso should have won the game - you need to lose this anger and focus your energy on your own team.

Maybe tell us will Ruddock or Murphy start for Leinster?