Heineken Cup 2014 Knockout Stages

First topic message reminder :

Thought it would be good to gauge who people think will go all the way.  I don't think there has ever been a tougher year to pick the winner, its being hyped as the most competitive last 8 the HC has ever seen and that is saying something.  The last 8 this season have won 13 Heineken Cups out of 18 Cups in total.

Quarter finals are:

Ulster vs Saracens

Clermont vs Leicester Tigers 

Toulon vs Leinster

Munster vs Toulouse

Semi finals:

Ulster / Saracens v Clermont / Leciester

Toulon / Leinster v Munster / Toulouse

Bookies odds:

Clermont Auvergne 9/4
Toulon 3/1
Ulster 6/1
Leinster 7/1
Munster 8/1
Saracens 10/1
Toulouse 12/1
Leicester 35/1

Lets see if v2 can predict the 2014 HC winner.

I'm going for Leicester to win at Clermont!   

Toulon Clermont again but maybe Ulster Leinster

Let's go Ulster but it's never a good thing to be so relient on one player, remember last year Pienaar had an off game in Twickers and the rest of the team couldn't deal with it, hope things have changed since.

ME-109 wrote:

Notch wrote:

beshocked wrote:Artful dodger I can give you three examples - jhamer25, me-109 and brennomac.

You realise that none of those guys are Ulster fans right?

I will be for the Quarter Final though....   

Ha! HA! Sometimes the only reason worth logging on here is to nod respectfully to a come-back like that.

VinceWLB wrote:Let's go Ulster but it's never a good thing to be so relient on one player, remember last year Pienaar had an off game in Twickers and the rest of the team couldn't deal with it, hope things have changed since.

No, the team had an off game.

Henry wasn't fit, Afoa was 2 days back from NZ, Luke was in the middle of his concussion run and Sarries played very very well. We had a shocking run up to the QF last year in terms of injury. If it's better this year we have a great chance.

We have had a bad run injury wise already this season. Hopefully we get some luck here in out

Standulstermen wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:Let's go Ulster but it's never a good thing to be so relient on one player, remember last year Pienaar had an off game in Twickers and the rest of the team couldn't deal with it, hope things have changed since.

No, the team had an off game.

Henry wasn't fit, Afoa was 2 days back from NZ, Luke was in the middle of his concussion run and  Sarries played very very well. We had a shocking run up to the QF last year in terms of injury. If it's better this year we have a great chance.

We have had a bad run injury wise already this season. Hopefully we get some luck here in out

Yeah, i know few guys were rushed back from injury, but i do remember too that Ulster had territory and possession dominance but couldn't capitalise.

Can't see past 4 comfortable home wins there

I'd love it if Leinster best Toulon though

VinceWLB wrote:

Standulstermen wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:Let's go Ulster but it's never a good thing to be so relient on one player, remember last year Pienaar had an off game in Twickers and the rest of the team couldn't deal with it, hope things have changed since.

No, the team had an off game.

Henry wasn't fit, Afoa was 2 days back from NZ, Luke was in the middle of his concussion run and  Sarries played very very well. We had a shocking run up to the QF last year in terms of injury. If it's better this year we have a great chance.

We have had a bad run injury wise already this season. Hopefully we get some luck here in out

Yeah, i know few guys were rushed back from injury, but i do remember too that Ulster had territory and possession dominance but couldn't capitalise.

That was part of the tactics implemented by Saracens.  They went for a tactical kicking game and did it very well, so we had a lot of possession but it was poor possession usually in our own half and Saracens defense was also very good so we could do very little with it.  Ironically Ulster have been using these tactics brilliantly this season, our win against Montpellier in France and to a certain extent Tigers at Welford Road really came down to these tactics.  So I think Ulster learnt a hell of a lot from that defeat to Saracens last season.

geoff999rugby wrote:I'll make one prediction now Toulouse will not win - they are nowhere near good enough to win 3 games in a row outside of France

They won't be helped by not having Dusautoir for their quarter final against Munster either.

Artful_Dodger wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:I'll make one prediction now Toulouse will not win - they are nowhere near good enough to win 3 games in a row outside of France

They won't be helped by not having Dusautoir for their quarter final against Munster either.

Toulouse with Guy Noves are exactly the team capable of doing that. For a French team that is precisely the type of challenge they enjoy. However Dusautoir would have been the main driving force behind that so his being injured (while unfortunate for him) is a good thing for Munster.

VinceWLB wrote:

Standulstermen wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:Let's go Ulster but it's never a good thing to be so relient on one player, remember last year Pienaar had an off game in Twickers and the rest of the team couldn't deal with it, hope things have changed since.

No, the team had an off game.

Henry wasn't fit, Afoa was 2 days back from NZ, Luke was in the middle of his concussion run and  Sarries played very very well. We had a shocking run up to the QF last year in terms of injury. If it's better this year we have a great chance.

We have had a bad run injury wise already this season. Hopefully we get some luck here in out

Yeah, i know few guys were rushed back from injury, but i do remember too that Ulster had territory and possession dominance but couldn't capitalise.

That's the 'sarries played very very well' part of my post. You could see the difference in tactics for the away game in Montpellier in the pools. Tough tough game all the same

Sarries have all the tools to win away at Ulster, I think it'll be down to tactics on the day and belief. Ulster just look like they know they'll win these big games and don't panic. Sarries at the moment are their own worst enemy in the biggest games.

If Hodgson starts I think it's 50/50 if Farrell starts then advantage Ulster.

SecretFly wrote:

ME-109 wrote:

Notch wrote:

beshocked wrote:Artful dodger I can give you three examples - jhamer25, me-109 and brennomac.

You realise that none of those guys are Ulster fans right?

I will be for the Quarter Final though....   

Ha! HA!  Sometimes the only reason worth logging on here is to nod respectfully to a come-back like that.  

  

See you in Cardiff DOD

Really looking forward to us playing Toulon.

Kevin Keegan style "I would love it if we beat them" rant...

How does Sarries have so many votes? By the way I haven't voted.

Yappysnap not sure we have the tools to break down the best defences though.

I am pleased that were will be no Alain Roland against Ulster. Makes me instantly more optimistic.

It's because they are the greatest side in Europe. Didn't you see their smashing of Connacht at the weekend?

Bathite wrote:It's because they are the greatest side in Europe. Didn't you see their smashing of Connacht at the weekend?

That's it. Simple as.

Mickado wrote:

Bathite wrote:It's because they are the greatest side in Europe. Didn't you see their smashing of Connacht at the weekend?

That's it. Simple as.

FACT.

Bathite wrote:It's because they are the greatest side in Europe. Didn't you see their smashing of Connacht at the weekend?

Bathite even I don't think that. Top 8 sure but not the best. If we can get to the HC final and win it then we could be the best side in Europe but only then. That's a big if and looking unlikely.

Smashing Connacht just proves that we can beat one of the weaker sides in the HC. Something we already knew.

Sarries have always been quite consistent in the HC when we've taken part but it's against the best sides where we've struggled. Everyone knows that.

Ulster away is a very good challenge. Not the toughest potential away match in my opinion but still very tough. No easy matches when you get to the HC quarter finals in my opinion.

what I like about the QF line up is the diversity :
- Munster vs Stade Toulousain: old enemies getting together, vintage game for the purists. ESPN classic type of game
- Toulon vs Leinster : 1st time the last 2 winners of the cup play against each other (I think)
- Ulster vs Saracens : simply called the Revenge.
- Clermont Vs Leicester : no HC line up could be complete without a proper french-english game. already has controversy all written over it. let us hope alain rolland is the ref :8

whocares wrote:what I like about the QF line up is the diversity :
- Munster vs Stade Toulousain: old enemies getting together, vintage game for the purists. ESPN classic type of game
- Toulon vs Leinster : 1st time the last 2 winners of the cup play against each other (I think)
- Ulster vs  Saracens : simply called the Revenge.
- Clermont Vs Leicester : no HC line up could be complete without a proper french-english game. already has controversy all written over it. let us hope alain rolland is the ref :8

Leinster played Toulouse in 2011, but this is the first time the last 3 winners have played

When Munster and lenister have played a semi together an Irish team wins.

Is this the first time all six group winners have been top seeds.

Think if any team can win in ireland its Clermount.

If there is an issue with playing two games in Dublin (BIG IF) then would love the munster v whoever moved to london. As has been shown playing any game in England when 20k+ attendance it turns into a home game

Heart says Ulster, head says Toulon, spider sense says Munster are the team to watch out for.

rodders wrote:Heart says Ulster, head says Toulon, spider sense says Munster are the team to watch out for.

If you had balls they'd say Leinster...

Mickado wrote:

rodders wrote:Heart says Ulster, head says Toulon, spider sense says Munster are the team to watch out for.

If you had balls they'd say Leinster...

You'd have to have some balls to tip them alright! ...

Munster are the eejits to watch out for.  The rest have far too much class to be up to winning the HEC this year.  When it's art against agriculture, the plough always wins.  Just look at last year's final.  

The HEC is a rural competition for hinterland sides that know how to read seasons and know when barley is ripe.

But...the Barley wont be ripe in May!

Aye Fly. And they don't open poxy overpriced restaurants or tuck their jeans into their socks or own a pair of Dr.Dre Beatz headphones either... No the true measure of the side that will win this tournament dates back to an era when men were men, women were women but sheep were also women. When 89000 fans who looked like this guy packed into Thomond Park to watch MUNSTER destroy the all blacks.

Aye, we all know whats coming. In 2014... the ligind will be rewritten   

MrsP wrote:But...the Barley wont be ripe in May!

Depending on the touch of a welly in soil and a look up at the sky, winter Barley can well achieve lift off in May. But Penney is in charge of the soil analysis and stuff like that. I'll leave it with him. He's the farmer. He knows his crop better than I do.

Leicester because I'm biased might put a tenner on them. if not then ulster.

One thing for sure - its gonna be good!

SecretFly wrote:

MrsP wrote:But...the Barley wont be ripe in May!

Depending on the touch of a welly in soil and a look up at the sky, winter Barley can well achieve lift off in May.  But Penney is in charge of the soil analysis and stuff like that.  I'll leave it with him.  He's the farmer.  He knows his crop better than I do.

Not too sure about that. But it certainly is the time to plant turnips!!!

  

Don't be calling the opposition turnips! Munster will respect them, whoever they are...even Sasanachs

MrsP wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

MrsP wrote:But...the Barley wont be ripe in May!

Depending on the touch of a welly in soil and a look up at the sky, winter Barley can well achieve lift off in May.  But Penney is in charge of the soil analysis and stuff like that.  I'll leave it with him.  He's the farmer.  He knows his crop better than I do.

Not too sure about that. But it certainly is the time to plant turnips!!!

  

Rather than breaking out the prayer books up north....  

Beshocked I think with Hodgeson at 10 and your strongest pack out you could beat Ulster. They haven't looked vintage themselves yet.

yappysnap wrote:Beshocked I think with Hodgeson at 10 and your strongest pack out you could beat Ulster. They haven't looked vintage themselves yet.

Perhaps but it's going to be very tough.

A lot will depend on how Best and Pienaar perform for Ulster and how key men like Borthwick,Billy and whoever is chosen at hooker for Sarries.

Ulster's key players weren't at their best at Twickenham.

beshocked wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Beshocked I think with Hodgeson at 10 and your strongest pack out you could beat Ulster. They haven't looked vintage themselves yet.

Perhaps but it's going to be very tough.

A lot will depend on how Best and Pienaar perform for Ulster and how key men like Borthwick,Billy and whoever is chosen at hooker for Sarries.

Ulster's key players weren't at their best at Twickenham.

Saracens can definitely beat Ulster - they did it at a canter last season.

If any team is equipped to go to Ravenhill and win it's sarries because they can dominate the collisions, set piece and breakdown and Owen Farrell will nail his place kicks - if they can keep the scoreboard ticking over that will silence the crowd. McCall will have them well warned about the Ravenhill factor.... it will be absolutely mental there!

This is a very tough draw for Ulster but both sides will believe they can win. Last year we tried to play too much rugby against a very aggressive Sarries defence and I hope we've learned from that.

Ulster to beat Saracens
Clermont to beat Leicester
Toulon to beat Leinster
Munster to be at Toulouse
 
Ulster to beat Clermont
Munster to beat Toulon
 
Munster to beat Ulster.

My not happen but hey.

Its a great 8 teams to have in the quarters.
 
Looking forward to it.
 
Munster have that fight in them.
The fantastic support as always behind them.
They have the will to win.
 
Just feel they will win it this year.
Grinding out results to win it.

rodders wrote:

beshocked wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Beshocked I think with Hodgeson at 10 and your strongest pack out you could beat Ulster. They haven't looked vintage themselves yet.

Perhaps but it's going to be very tough.

A lot will depend on how Best and Pienaar perform for Ulster and how key men like Borthwick,Billy and whoever is chosen at hooker for Sarries.

Ulster's key players weren't at their best at Twickenham.

Saracens can definitely beat Ulster - they did it at a canter last season.  

If any team is equipped to go to Ravenhill and win it's sarries because they can dominate the collisions, set piece and breakdown and Owen Farrell will nail his place kicks  - if they can keep the scoreboard ticking over that will silence the crowd. McCall will have them well warned about the Ravenhill factor.... it will be absolutely mental there!

This is a very tough draw for Ulster but both sides will believe they can win. Last year we tried to play too much rugby against a very aggressive Sarries defence and I hope we've learned from that.

Rodders nice of you to be so positive about Saracens but Ulster will deservedly start as favourites. You'll be at home - how good is your record compared to the likes of Munster and Clermont?  Plus you've got a very good side with plenty of potential match winners. It should be an interesting match up.

I have to believe we can win but for example breaking down the Ulster defence will be very tough in my opinion.

How do Sarries have so many votes? I don't get it. My money would probably be on Clermont breaking their HC duck.

beshocked wrote:Rodders nice of you to be so positive about Saracens but Ulster will deservedly start as favourites. You'll be at home - how good is your record compared to the likes of Munster and Clermont?  Plus you've got a very good side with plenty of potential match winners. It should be an interesting match up.

Yeah I mean if I might be so bold I'd acknowledge that we would be deserving favourites but if both teams play anything like they did last year then I would expect to be turned over again, home or not, we were pretty naïve, outwitted and bullied so need to find something extra.

Not a great one for stats or remembering things generally but know we rarely lose at Ravenhill, if you've ever been you'll see why! - only time in Europe I can think off is against Saints last year? ...even in the bad old days over the last decade we rarely lost there.

The home advantage will be a huge factor but don't believe for one second that this will be enough in itself, we'll need a massive performance. I'm definitely not looking past this game.

Our record is not as good as Clermont, Munster or Leicester because we are relatively recent arrivals at the top table. The turnaround in our fortunes since 2008 has been astonishing

There was one year in the Heineken Cup we were beaten by Gloucester and Ospreys at Ravenhill. That was awful. 2007-2008.
I have to say, probably one of my favourite ever memories of being an Ulster fan- ever- was that season when we beat a disinterested, second-string Bourgoin side 25-24 at Ravenhill in a dead rubber in Round 5 after losing all our previous Heineken Cup games that season and all but two of our league games. In doing so, we confirmed that we would avoid the fate of being the worst side in the competition that season.

Having been enjoying my first year as a season ticket holder at Ulster but having missed the only other game we had won at Ravenhill that year it was an immensely satisfying moment.

There's nothing like the first rain after a drought. But before that slump, which cost a neophyte coach called Mark McCall his job remember, we did have a relatively formidable home record in Europe and a reputation for vociferous and partisan home support.

rodders I agree it's smart to take it one game at a time. That's what I am doing too.

You are right - if both teams play like last year but I don't think that will happen. That was a "home" match for Saracens, now it's a HOME match for Ulster. I was impressed with the support that Ulster have been given at the last two matches I saw them play at Twickenham. I can certainly imagine the support you'll get at Ravenhill will be just as impressive.

Have you lost to anyone in the Pro12 at Ravenhill this season?

Notch surely you could argue that Clermont,Toulon,Leinster and Saracens are also relatively recent arrivals at the top table too.

Mark Mccall is an interesting one isn't he? Was club captain of Ulster in the season you won the HC. He won a Celtic league title with Ulster as coach.

He's won an AP title at Sarries as a coach, plotted the downfall of his ex club side last season and has them locked in his sights again.

You must have mixed feelings about Mccall!

beshocked wrote:
You must have mixed feelings about Mccall!

No I've a lot of respect for McCall - decent player but always rated him as a coach.... his record speaks for itself....that nonsense that led to his departure from Ulster doesn't diminish his coaching credentials for me.

Beshocked.

Mark McCall was our club captain when we won the HEC in 1999 but he was injured so Davy Humphries was captain for the final.

He is held in great affection at Ravenhill.

beshocked wrote:Notch surely you could argue that Clermont,Toulon,Leinster and Saracens are also relatively recent arrivals at the top table too.

Mark Mccall is an interesting one isn't he? Was club captain of Ulster in the season you won the HC. He won a Celtic league title with Ulster as coach.

He's won an AP title at Sarries as a coach, plotted the downfall of his ex club side last season and has them locked in his sights again.

You must have mixed feelings about Mccall!

Yes its true. Generally teams go through peaks and troughs. The ones who have been consistently in the quarter-finals each year like Munster, Leicester and Toulouse are the exception not the rule. The interesting thing will be if the now super-rich French clubs stay there perpetually.

As for McCall not at all, after the service he rendered as a player and a coach I wish him nothing but the best. I would not be perturbed to see him return to Ulster some time down the line should he prove to be the best candidate for the job although given the history I fully understand why he might not want to come back. He's more than good enough to continue to get coaching work in England should he leave Saracens. I think he suffered from taking his first head coaching job too close to home. He coached Ireland As, Ireland U21s, assistant coach to Ulster and then Head Coach. Alan Solomons was a great coach for us, and I feel with Mark he had initial success but things went south and he didn't manage to handle it well. I think that some fans were looking around for someone to blame and they blamed him. They were a lot of things that weren't set up well in Ulster- from the board room to the dressing room. It was never one mans fault. Thats what happens to coaches the world over isn't it? He should take his fair share of the blame, but it's not our failures in life that define us its how we react to them. He was sacked, cast adrift and he picked himself up and started from scratch again- now look at him. If it's Mark McCall standing there in May with his Heineken Cup medal nobody outside of Ulster will remember or care about the 'season from hell' when he lost his job.

Culturally I think we in Ulster have benefited from having outside voices come in. The culture around the club was not too dissimilar to France were they're Tarzan in front of their home crowd and Jane away. There was a lack of belief in what we could achieve, a lack of vision in general. Players and coaches from rugby cultures where they demand the best, no excuses have helped us change the culture from perennial also-rans to contenders.

Do I detect a certain Come Home Paddy Reilly to Ballyjamesduff in the fond memories of Mark McCall?  

I mean not now of course, but when and if present incumbent leaves?