Heineken Cup 2014 Knockout Stages

beshocked wrote:http://www.ercrugby.com/matchcentre/munster_rugby.php?section=0

59 wins, 5 losses at home for Munster in the HC. 92% win

http://www.ercrugby.com/matchcentre/ulster_rugby.php

41 wins, 1 draw, 16 losses for Ulster in the HC at home. 71% win


Against these you have Toulouse with 39 wins, 2 draws, 27 losses - 57% away record.


http://www.ercrugby.com/matchcentre/toulouse.php


Saracens with 13 wins, 11 losses away from home in HC - 54%

http://www.ercrugby.com/matchcentre/saracens.php


So in conclusion - Thomond Park is a much tougher venue to go to than Ravenhill. Toulouse are slightly better away from home overall than Saracens but 54% is still a good stat.

beshocked wrote:Gunsgerms we'll see.

Toulouse lost to Connacht at home - blew a HC home quarter final. I would say that's a pretty poor show. Worse than Munster's show vs Edinburgh.

Toulouse had a harder group than Munster? Not sure I agree. Both were pretty weak.

Pool stages are irrelevant now anyway. If you want to base Ulster's chances on that then sure let's hand them the title now.  

If Ulster are so much better than Munster then why are they below Munster in the Pro12?

Personally I think you are overestimating Ulster and underestimating Munster.

Munster are one of those sides that seems to continually perform well in the HC.

BlueMuff wrote:
You really do make me laugh Guns - why do you hate Munster so much? Are you seriously saying that Munster should be judged on the basis of the treviso game? Why not use the match where Munster beat Leinster only a few months ago, or only 3 defeats this whole season.

And are you seriously saying that Treviso should have won the game - you need to lose this anger and focus your energy on your own team.

Maybe tell us will Ruddock or Murphy start for Leinster?

GunsGerms wrote:

BlueMuff wrote:
You really do make me laugh Guns - why do you hate Munster so much? Are you seriously saying that Munster should be judged on the basis of the treviso game? Why not use the match where Munster beat Leinster only a few months ago, or only 3 defeats this whole season.

And are you seriously saying that Treviso should have won the game - you need to lose this anger and focus your energy on your own team.

Maybe tell us will Ruddock or Murphy start for Leinster?

Glad to assist. You are only as good as your last game. There's no anger muff, you keep asking me this??

Yes Treviso were the better team because they scored the only legitimate points. That is a fact. The first try came from a pass that was a mile forward, the second try Downey's hand was in touch and there was a clear knock on a few phases back.

Varley should have been sent off too for telling the ref to shut the f up. Munster were unbelievably fortunate to win that game.

Treviso are second from bottom in the Rabo. Why would I rate Munster over Toulouse on that performance?

beshocked wrote:Oh right Bluemuff. That's pretty daunting!

Gunsgerms Sarries HC favourites? Hardly. Only need to look at the bookies to see that it's not true. AP league leaders - I'll grant you that. You've written Sarries off though - you say they're the least likely to win the HC out of the teams. You also say that Toulouse are vastly superior so surely a pool win for Toulouse was a foregone conclusion.

Munster are 2nd in the Pro12. Home quarter final vs Toulouse in the HC. A title is possible.

My point is that I feel that you are underestimating some sides and overestimating others.

ME-109 wrote:Guns maybe you should concentrate on how your boys will do against Toulon given Leinsters capitulation against Northampton...might be more of an interest for you. You do seem a little bit obsessed with how we will do (who knows but am sure we will give Toulouse some bit of a game.

GunsGerms wrote:

beshocked wrote:Oh right Bluemuff. That's pretty daunting!

Gunsgerms Sarries HC favourites? Hardly. Only need to look at the bookies to see that it's not true. AP league leaders - I'll grant you that. You've written Sarries off though - you say they're the least likely to win the HC out of the teams. You also say that Toulouse are vastly superior so surely a pool win for Toulouse was a foregone conclusion.

Munster are 2nd in the Pro12. Home quarter final vs Toulouse in the HC. A title is possible.

My point is that I feel that you are underestimating some sides and overestimating others.

Re Sarries I was referring in jest to the poll on this thread. Id imagine Sarries are better than Glouster or Perpignan anyway.

I didnt say vastly superior, I just think they are better. Not a forgone conclusion however, you cant ignore their pedigree in this tournament.

Munster if they do beat an on form Toulouse will have an away semi to Toulon or Leinster. I wouldnt give them any hope at all of getting through that. They will definitely huff and puff but dont have the talent to win these big knock out games right now.

GunsGerms wrote:Come Clermont are a favorite because of their pedegree in the last few years. By contrast Munster havent looked like winning a title. Do you really think Munster are a better side?

Would a semi in the Aviva really be a leveller? I guess we will see on Saturday but Leinster havent really struggled v Munster when it has counted much lately. I think you wwould have to agree they would start as clear favorites.

I said they were a long shot. I reckon thats about right no?

ME-109 wrote:
Munster won on the last occasion between Munster and Leinster...so er what does that mean...

GunsGerms wrote:They didnt choke they were choked by really negative Toulon tactics. Clermont were the better side for most of the game.

Just saw that Toulon's coach Laporte has been suspended for 12 weeks. Advantage Leinster?

http://www1.skysports.com/rugby-union/news/12332/9163209/toulons-bernard-laporte-suspended-for-13-weeks-for-referee-tirade

Leinster have had much tougher groups that Munster.