Warren Gatland From Here

Walesonline has an article arguing that Gatland wasn't just out-thought by Joe Schmidt at the weekend, he has also lost the next Lions coaching role to his Kiwi rival:

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/sport-opinion/analysis-ireland-coach-joe-schmidt-6688824

It is a curious time for the man who really had no rivals when the coach was selected for the Lions tour to Australia. He has enough success in the bank to survive a poor Six nations this year. And it may not even be poor - wins over France, England and Scotland would settle the nerves in Wales, even if it probably won't win a Championship without some big scorelines in their favour.

Nevertheless, it's often been true in rugby that successful coaches can come a cropper when results start to go against them. Certainly, as that article reminds us, Gatland and Wales didn't set the world alight in 2009 or 2010. However, many of his leading players, and the coaching team, came out with enhanced reputations after the Lions tour of South Africa in the middle of that period.

What if Wales have a very poor tournament and lose another couple of games? I don't get the sense that anyone is clamouring for Gatland's head, and not simply because there are few other realistic candidates. He's in charge of Wales through to the next World Cup.

And yet the next challenge for his team is a tour of South Africa. If fatigue is playing a part at all in the undercooked performances to date, then a summer serving of Springboks is unlikely to be the answer. Would Gatland write off this season, rest key players, and look to come our firing for the World Cup in 2015? In 2007, Brian Ashton (<-- edited thanks to Scrumpy) took an England squad to South Africa missing many leading players (not his choice, mind you) and watched them get smashed. A few months later, his team made it to a World Cup final.

If Gatland does field his top players in summer, and comes off second best, then his World Cup preparation is left looking a bit bedraggled.

Graham Henry is one of the few rugby coaches - the only coach? - to take his team to highs, watch them crash, but then have the opportunity to get take them to the top. His case is interesting. in 2009, New Zealand were looking good but the coaching team had been in place for several years and there was a sense things were getting stale. Two years out from the World Cup, Henry, Hansen and Smith all swapped jobs.

Can Gatland freshen up his coaching team in some fashion? I can't think who might step up or down but the current poor relationship between the regions and the WRU might make changes difficult anyway.

What seems to be crucial is that Gatland retains the dressing room. It was interesting to hear former Wales hooker Huw Bennett on Scrum V yesterday. He rejected the accusation that Wales had no Plan B after Plan A had failed. Bennett revealed that Gatlandball, or Warrenball, is actually called "The Pattern", by the players. He said he was a big supporter of the strategy because it had brought so much success. For him, the pattern didn't fail against Ireland because Wales never got into it in the first place.

If Gatland is to continue with his strategy, then his current squad will need to share Bennett's opinion: Ireland didn't break down them down, they just failed to execute with their usual accuracy. If instead, they begin to doubt the gameplan, then Wales' ability to fight their way back into matches, something they have often shown to good effect over the years, will be undermined.

Gatland could do with two big victories right now over France and England. Win those, and he'd probably ever get away even with losing to Scotland. Two losses, and he's got to find a way to reunite his squad in common purpose in time for the World Cup.

Good article and food for thought.

I don't agree with Bennett though. The forwards were beaten up mainly due to using 2 (now) ageing props who don't contribute enough compared to other international props around the park and picking the 2 flankers on reputation not form.

That is half the pack on the back foot. Add to that the tactics of competing at the lineout & thereby being on the back foot to defend the subsequent maul.

I still think the coaching team has plenty in the bank but they need to show some different tactics are being used by the team.

For me the main thing was that Wales were totally predictable and Ireland played the right tactics to nullify Wales - that and the breakdown masterclass the Irish gave

Wales couldn't play the pattern because Ireland had the players and tactics to negate it.

In terms of resting players against south africa. I don't think it's possible these days. Wales, along with other 6 nations teams has undertaken to send full strength sides in summer.

Perhaps slightly too early to mention Lions coach credentials. Personally unless he's standout I would always go with a British or Irish coach. If Lancaster is on par with the leading kiwi coach then would say, go with him or any other British or Irish coach up to the task.

I certainly think Gatland's strategy is completely incompatible facing NZ in NZ though.

There is a lot of rugby to be played in the next 4 years mind. Things will change as will the coaches.

Three matches, three completely different game plans and tactics. Is there a more tactically brilliant coach at the moment than Josef Schmidt?

GunsGerms wrote:Three matches, three completely different game plans and tactics. Is there a more tactically brilliant coach at the moment than Josef Schmidt?

Managing to somehow lose from 20 points up in the Autumn shows a certain amount of genius.

Hansen and Meyer?

England will probably be the only home union without a kiwi coach come the next tour so logic would be to go for a Kiwi coach for the Lions as well as most of the players would be used to it!

Rugby Fan wrote: Would Gatland write off this season, rest key players, and look to come our firing for the World Cup in 2015? In 2007, Jack Rowell took an England squad to South Africa missing many leading players (not his choice, mind you) and watched them get smashed. A few months later, his team made it to a World Cup final.

Jack Rowell!!!!!   

Cyril wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:Three matches, three completely different game plans and tactics. Is there a more tactically brilliant coach at the moment than Josef Schmidt?

Managing to somehow lose from 20 points up in the Autumn shows a certain amount of genius.

I thought that just proved you could take a horse to water but you couldn't teach him to swim for more than 50mins.

Maybe that game was a watershed moment.

Of the 6N coaches I would say Lancaster is the best right now. The Ireland game showed Gatlands weakness clearly - lack of plan B / lack of imagination.

Lancaster may get his team to play in a very predictable manner but he has taken a team that needed rebuilding and where there had been no future planning to a functioning team and has introduced the youngsters.

If a top coach adds value then lancasters England have improved greatly

not a surprise given Gatland overused (rightly or wrongly) his Welsh players during the lions tour whilst Ireland and England players were more rested.

The Welsh bar Hibbard just didn't look like they were at the races. Fatigue looked like it was a factor.

Scrumpy wrote:

Rugby Fan wrote: Would Gatland write off this season, rest key players, and look to come our firing for the World Cup in 2015? In 2007, Jack Rowell took an England squad to South Africa missing many leading players (not his choice, mind you) and watched them get smashed. A few months later, his team made it to a World Cup final.

Jack Rowell!!!!!   

Good point...I seem to have slipped a decade or so. I'll edit in Brian Ashton and pretend I wrote that all along.

Cyril wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:Three matches, three completely different game plans and tactics. Is there a more tactically brilliant coach at the moment than Josef Schmidt?

Managing to somehow lose from 20 points up in the Autumn shows a certain amount of genius.

Tactics were right though, they just werent followed through for the full 80 by the players. Tactics will put you in the position to win the players make sure it happens.

Joe Schmidtt showed on Saturday that you can sucesfully implement 2 game plans and win depending on your opponent, part of me thinks Gatland is just too arrogant to do anything different, part me of thinks most of the Welsh players are not up to playing a high tempo game.

fa0019 wrote:not a surprise given Gatland overused (rightly or wrongly) his Welsh players during the lions tour whilst Ireland and England players were more rested.

The Welsh bar Hibbard just didn't look like they were at the races. Fatigue looked like it was a factor.

Sorry thats a terrible excuse. That was 7 months ago. Surely they have had a chance to have a rest since then? There were more Irish players injured on the Lions tour than anyone else.

GunsGerms wrote:

fa0019 wrote:not a surprise given Gatland overused (rightly or wrongly) his Welsh players during the lions tour whilst Ireland and England players were more rested.

The Welsh bar Hibbard just didn't look like they were at the races. Fatigue looked like it was a factor.

Sorry thats a terrible excuse. That was 7 months ago. Surely they have had a chance to have a rest since then? There were more Irish players injured on the Lions tour than anyone else.

Coincidence that France have won the 5N/6N in 98, 02, 06 and 10?

Rugby wrote:

 It was interesting to hear former Wales hooker Huw Bennett on Scrum V yesterday. He rejected the accusation that Wales had no Plan B after Plan A had failed. Bennett revealed that Gatlandball... didn't fail against Ireland because Wales never got into it.

That's right. Wales don't need a plan B because plan A is just fine.   

It was the feckin Irish fault for not allowing Wales to play it.   

Well it's way, way, way to early to have any thoughts over the next Lions tour.

Gatland should have realised it wasn't his day when he walked into the team bus, No plan B!

Does he have a plan A?

Its Doom and Gloom time in Wales again, even Jiffy is panicking!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/26113218

Its one defeat to a very good Irish team who have employed a very good coach.

fa0019 wrote:
Coincidence that France have won the 5N/6N in 98, 02, 06 and 10?

Thats because they get to tour together and therefore are in theory more cohesive than all other teams who have not had a chance to do so. That is why France win the championship. Nothing to do with being tired.

Ireland had almost as many players on tour as Wales and got more injuries so the Lions tour is not relevant.

Notch wrote:Well it's way, way, way to early to have any thoughts over the next Lions tour.

The Lions tour is just a side issue. It's more a question of what Gatland does next. If he pulls Wales back into shape, and has more success with them, then his credentials remain intact. If, instead, Wales stutter, and have a poor World Cup, then he will have blotted his copybook.

It doesn't take much to turn opinions.  Nick Mallet led South Africa to 17 straight wins, with a number of record margins. Once his streak was broken by England in 1998, the team began to lose shape and he fell out with his captain. Woodward's Lions tour was enough for many to dismiss his achievements.

Regarding the WalesOnline article itself:

To hell with the Lions.  For Christ's sake...it's gone for a few years!  Forget about it for a while.  These coaches have countries to coach.  They have a WC coming up.

This idea that The Lions is the true proving ground, the true 'National' identity of all four nations, the one thing all coaches, players and fans are plotting and planning to be part of, is in essence an insult to the respective Nations involved.

Lions fans (media and civilians)...give-it-a-break.  You've had your highly profitable and highly newsworthy year.............. Leave the other years now to come to the Nations.  The Lions isn't my Nation... not remotely close.  There is honour enough with their Nations for coaches and players alike.

Gatland has time to turn things around.This break has come just at the right moment.I expect our performance against France to be poles apart from the embarrassing shambles on Saturday.
Any talk of the Lions whether historical or speculative is just irrelevant journo poop.

Lets hope Wales can beat France!! Its in Cardiff isnt it?

GunsGerms wrote:Lets hope Wales can beat France!! Its in Cardiff isnt it?

...by a small winning margin in a low scoring game. We'll all have to add that proviso now to any game involving sides in contention.

GunsGerms wrote:Lets hope Wales can beat France!! Its in Cardiff isnt it?

Don't hold your breath     

Scrumpy wrote:Its Doom and Gloom time in Wales again, even Jiffy is panicking!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/26113218

Its one defeat to a very good Irish team who have employed a very good coach.

He is right though, particularly reference Warburton. Though I don't think Tipuric would've made a difference on Saturday, as I don't think a dog fight kind of game really suits him either. Gatland does tend to ignore form though (an example obviously being players like Samson Lee not even making the 23).

Rugby Fan wrote:

Notch wrote:Well it's way, way, way to early to have any thoughts over the next Lions tour.

The Lions tour is just a side issue. It's more a question of what Gatland does next. If he pulls Wales back into shape, and has more success with them, then his credentials remain intact. If, instead, Wales stutter, and have a poor World Cup, then he will have blotted his copybook.

It doesn't take much to turn opinions.  Nick Mallet led South Africa to 17 straight wins, with a number of record margins. Once his streak was broken by England in 1998, the team began to lose shape and he fell out with his captain. Woodward's Lions tour was enough for many to dismiss his achievements.

Mallett's big mistake was to get rid of Teichmann... what he failed to understand was that whilst Skinstad was a superior player, his importance on the pitch was huge especially as a leader of the side.

People use the Lions tour as a reason to bash Woodward but in reality I doubt there was a single coach who would have got even a single win in the test series given the players he had to choose from. Henry's 01 tour is arguably worse yet he is now deemed as a legend in the game.

Wales look flat. I don't think it's a question of Lions tours etc., as club form has, by and large, been fine. However, some of the senior players don't look quite right. For example, both props, both flankers and scrum half are simply not performing at the high level they have achieved in the past. It's for Gatland to either rejuvenate or replace them. To compound his miseries, the lack of a game shaping fly half doesn't help.
It's not all doom and gloom as good players don't become bad overnight, but they seem to lack the extra edge that they've had over their 6N rivals in the last couple of years.

I read a few welsh articles and theres a bit of an overreaction after the game. Its like Gatland has turned bad overnight.

It will be hard for Wales to change their style of play though. Its based on physicality and they've better players to call upon but Gatland won't sacrifice the physicality for more skill.

There has been a very big reaction, and yesterday's BBC Scrum V did a good job or airing a number of perspectives. It's not the first time these kinds of criticisms have been heard in Wales but the Irish loss seems to have hit a nerve.

If Gatland's bubble does now burst, I can't help thinking Welsh supporters might look back and think they let the coaches and players off the hook too easily for failing to take major southern hemisphere scalps while the team was riding high.

If, on the the hand, Gatland can now lead Wales to a result in South Africa, or a successful World Cup, he'll have pulled off a remarkable demonstration of resilient coaching.

My fear is that Wales have peaked as a team but still have the muscle memory to trouble England. My nightmare scenario for next year's World Cup group continues to be: England beat Australia, Australia beat Wales and Wales beat England - England crash out on points difference and then Wales get dumped in the quarters.

Did any of the Wales papers run the headline "O'Driscoll vindicated"? Just kidding though he did have a good game and I think its clear that there is life in the old dog still.

There's obviously a legitimate debate to be had about Gats' tactics, Plan A, Plan B etc. But Bennett basically right that we didn't even get to Plan A. We lost due to poor discipline/penalty count, weak set pieces (especially line out), and losing the breakdown and kicking/aerial battles. Those are fundamental rather than tactical issues IMO.

We have issues at half back, with Phillips too slow and Priestland making matters worse in the 2nd half with aimless kicking but it's the basics that we got completely wrong on Saturday. I don't think the result on Saturday is a major setback for Gatland's tactics, but we need better selection, preparation and coaching (Jinks, McBryde) to address specific flaws such our dreadful kicking game and line out. And our shambolic defence of the rolling maul. The breakdown problem is more of a short term one, as I think Warburton was rusty and not match fit. Lydiate's form/condition is a worry though and Gethin looks like he might be finished to me - just too injury prone now.

It was just the perfect storm.Warburton back after yet another long lay off,Lydiate becoming a Dad earlier in the week,fifth choice second row,JD2 injured,Ireland away with good team and a coach to match.
We move on,suck it up and focus on the French.

"It's not that The Pattern doesn't work any more because teams have figured it out, it's just that we didn't execute The Pattern effectively..."

Modern managementspeak for "we didn't lose, it's just that they scored (a lot) more points than us."

I see this Wales team in the same way asd the England cricket team. I think their day is up and they only likely to win one more game (Scotland) this championship. Their tactics are getting stale, they can't but a win against the SH, they were terrible against italy and were lucky to scrape the win and they got battered by Ireland. One of the most important axis in the team, the 9 and 10 are woefull. phillips should have been our out to pastures a year ago. Good teams to become bad overnight, look at the latest Ashes debacle! The same will happen to this welsh team.

SecretFly wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:Lets hope Wales can beat France!! Its in Cardiff isnt it?

...by a small winning margin in a low scoring game.  We'll all have to add that proviso now to any game involving sides in contention.

A draw would do nicely, actually. Then Ireland can beat France after we beat them and we'll just have to try our best to put Italy to the sword

ChequeredJersey wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:Lets hope Wales can beat France!! Its in Cardiff isnt it?

...by a small winning margin in a low scoring game.  We'll all have to add that proviso now to any game involving sides in contention.

A draw would do nicely, actually. Then Ireland can beat France after we beat them and we'll just have to try our best to put Italy to the sword

Well if Ireland beat France then even if we lose to England we will probably win the championship on points difference as we are already a good bit ahead.

GunsGerms wrote:

ChequeredJersey wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:Lets hope Wales can beat France!! Its in Cardiff isnt it?

...by a small winning margin in a low scoring game.  We'll all have to add that proviso now to any game involving sides in contention.

A draw would do nicely, actually. Then Ireland can beat France after we beat them and we'll just have to try our best to put Italy to the sword

Well if Ireland beat France then even if we lose to England we will probably win the championship on points difference as we are already a good bit ahead.

But obviously we intend to thrash Wales! You can draw with France too, then. I don't like France being unbeaten though

Wales will beat France. Of that I am sure. The French aren't clued in enough to break down the normally excellent Welsh defence and they will cough up up opportunities to Halfpenny. They might score with a bit of individual magic or two but Wales at home are too good for them as a team currently.

I can't see Wales playing as poorly over the next three games but the weather looks like it will have a major say in how attractive the rugby is across the rest of the tournament.

Engine#4 wrote:Wales will beat France. Of that I am sure.  The French aren't clued in enough to break down the normally excellent Welsh defence and they will cough up up opportunities to Halfpenny.  They might score with a bit of individual magic or two but Wales at home are too good for them as a team currently.

this is very confident - over confident? I would not be nearly so sure. France look to be coming good again to me

TJ wrote:

Engine#4 wrote:Wales will beat France. Of that I am sure.  The French aren't clued in enough to break down the normally excellent Welsh defence and they will cough up up opportunities to Halfpenny.  They might score with a bit of individual magic or two but Wales at home are too good for them as a team currently.

this is very confident - over confident?  I would not be nearly so sure.  France look to be coming good again to me

Isn't Engine#4 Irish? Can you be confident/overconfident on someone else's behalf?!

Griff wrote:

TJ wrote:

Engine#4 wrote:Wales will beat France. Of that I am sure.  The French aren't clued in enough to break down the normally excellent Welsh defence and they will cough up up opportunities to Halfpenny.  They might score with a bit of individual magic or two but Wales at home are too good for them as a team currently.

this is very confident - over confident?  I would not be nearly so sure.  France look to be coming good again to me

Isn't Engine#4 Irish? Can you be confident/overconfident on someone else's behalf?!

Griff, on these boards, anything is possible!

If Engine is Irish then he has a right to be over-confident.  He just got his 6N Cert of Approval for Cockiness in preparation for our game against England.  Although why he's using it up to cheer lead Wales is anybody's guess.

Somebody has to take France down a peg or two. Can't have them getting any semblance of their old swagger back - Ireland's record in Paris  In all serious though, France are relying on winning their individual player battles to see them through games. I don't think they'll manage this against a bunch of p***ed off Welshmen.