Ireland v France - The 6N decider

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With such a strong points advantage if Ireland can just win in Paris then the Championship is there's. Now it's never been a happy hunting ground for Ireland - can they do it?

I think it's there year and I'm going to say yes.

The relative form of Ireland and France really ought to make this a formality. If it were any opposition other than France and any venue other than Paris, we'd already be sending the Championship trophy to Dublin.

France aren't unpredictable this year; they're reliably hopeless. Ireland have, mirabile dictu, the best tight five in the championship, the stingiest defence and a decent, if relatively paceless set of backs. Apart from Huget and, possibly, Picamoles, it's hard to pick any of the likely French starters to get ahead of their Irish counterparts in a combined XV on current form.

It's a simple equation this time - the game should be won and lost inside 23 Irish minds. Almost all of them have been on the end of repeated draining losses against the French or draws that ought to have been comfortable wins. In 2012, when clearly the better side, you could see the realisation that this was Paris dawn on Ireland and something close to panic take over. If Schmidt can convince them, and the players can do likewise with themselves, that they are playing a poor side at a venue which will be happy to boo their own "heroes" at the least provocation, then not only should Ireland win, but they should do so handsomely.

It's a big if, I admit. I'm hopeful, but the historical record teaches me not to be too optimistic. Ireland by 5 is the tentative call, since a team as poor as France really shouldn't be within hailing distance of this Irish side, whatever the psychological issues. Mind you, France shouldn't have beaten England or Scotland, either, hence the well-hedged set of bets from me.

If both teams play as they have done the Ireland will win.

The questions are will Ireland play as well in Paris and will France play better or differently.

France really have been mediocre but have players like Huget who can win games on their own, which is what happened against England and Scotland.

It's not hard to see how Ireland can win this but its also very easy to see how they can lose and that makes this extremely exciting.....  

When Ireland have a record of 1 win in last 14 matches vs. France and last beat France in France in 2000 it would suggest that its probably quite a bigger deal then people make out.

Poor form or not, France are not simply going to roll over. I would still say for Ireland to win, they have to play better then they have in the championship thus far.

fa0019 wrote:
Poor form or not, France are not simply going to roll over. I would still say for Ireland to win, they have to play better then they have in the championship thus far.

I honestly don't believe so - on recent form we will dominate all the key areas of the game, scrum, lineout and breakdown - we won't concede many penalties or miss many tackles. The points difference we've accrued is testimony to that.

What is a big worry for me is that where Ireland have been vulnerable defensively is out wide - we saw that against England and Italy.

It's really not hard to see us getting opened up or hit on the turnover by France at some stage. The key thing is when in the match this may happen and how many of our own points we can accrue to ensure when we do get opened up it doesn't determine the result because France will score.

rodders wrote:

fa0019 wrote:
Poor form or not, France are not simply going to roll over. I would still say for Ireland to win, they have to play better then they have in the championship thus far.

I honestly don't believe so - on recent form we will dominate all the key areas of the game, scrum, lineout and breakdown - we won't concede many penalties or miss many tackles. The points difference we've accrued is testimony to that.

What is a big worry for me is that where Ireland have been vulnerable defensively is out wide - we saw that against England and Italy.

It's really not hard to see us getting opened up or hit on the turnover by France at some stage. The key thing is when in the match this may happen and how many of our own points we can accrue to ensure when we do get opened up it doesn't determine the result because France will score.

I'd be very surprised if you can dominate the scrum Rodders.

Parity against the French at their home ground in that department is as good as I've ever seen a team get.

fa0019 wrote:When Ireland have a record of 1 win in last 14 matches vs. France and last beat France in France in 2000 it would suggest that its probably quite a bigger deal then people make out.

Poor form or not, France are not simply going to roll over. I would still say for Ireland to win, they have to play better then they have in the championship thus far.

Cant say I disagree with this. One caveat though this France team is unquestionably playing worse than any France team I have ever seen and their current coaching is worse than the previous coach Lievremont which is a spectacular achievement. That said it is all set up for another irish sporting tragedy.

Not sure I quite agree, fa. To me, a repetition of the kind of form that Ireland produced against Wales or England (for much of the game) would be sufficient to beat this French side. My worry is whether Ireland will freeze against this opposition in this city; basically, this French side is of a similar standard to Scotland, whatever the Championship table may say, and I would have no concern about Ireland going to Murrayfield with the championship at stake. It's just the weight of history - only Scotland at Twickers have a worse long-term 5/6N record than Ireland in Paris. It shouldn't matter, since every game is different, but it obviously does.

Rodders I think there is a chance we will see Tommy Bowe come on the wing for Kearney. Defensively Bowe is water tight as see v NZ and he is also a real attacking threat. He would probably be on the bench anyway.

I'll bet 2 euro we'll get the edge in the scrum. I'll eat my hat if the old rolling maul doesn't make a few appearances too .

Well that scheduling has worked out a treat for the marketing men of 6N!  
Last game of the season - the defining roll of the dice game that will decide the fate of all three front runners.

Well the script is a good one so far.  Will the denouement conclusion be the same? Only one ending will do!  I don't want any hidden twists!  Those are very passé now ;)Just a straight forward fairytale ending will do me......

Who is the referee? Is it Walsh?

rodders wrote:I'll bet 2 euro we'll get the edge in the scrum. I'll eat my hat if the old rolling maul doesn't make a few appearances too  .

I would say the French beasted England more than Ireland did come scrum time... and against France they had Cole not Wilson.

Ireland have as good a scrum as I can remember at the moment but the French for me, they are better than the boks here.

GunsGerms wrote:Rodders I think there is a chance we will see Tommy Bowe come on the wing for Kearney. Defensively Bowe is water tight as see v NZ and he is also a real attacking threat. He would probably be on the bench anyway.

Yeah he might you know but you know I'd be inclined to stick with Trimble and Kearney. Kearney is naturally left sided so if Bowe come in it would be for Trimble, which I think given his performance at the weekend would be wrong. He might get the nod on the bench but then McFadden made a good impact.

I think we'll see the same starting side bar O'Mahoney and there will be a tough call on whether to start Reddan and who will get the backrow and outside back slot on the bench.

fa0019 wrote: I would still say for Ireland to win, they have to play better then they have in the championship thus far.

As will France have to, to keep with us!

Form this year?  Ireland have to play better to beat France?  I'd suggest Ireland's form is very close to England's form.  Form is form - it doesn't have grades linked to history.  Everyone who has seen Ireland this year knows it isn't Kidney's Ireland and that form is being sustained through all games - I'd include the Twickenham game.

Ireland will have to play to its best form of this season - which it has reached a few times - and France have to raise their performance a lot more to live with that current Ireland best form.  Can France do that?  Of course they can - we have a recent World Cup to look back on to see how they can fumble through weeks and then give the smug favourites a right shock.

But....... they'll have to improve their current form much more than Ireland will have to ratchet up theirs.

fa0019 wrote:

rodders wrote:I'll bet 2 euro we'll get the edge in the scrum. I'll eat my hat if the old rolling maul doesn't make a few appearances too  .

I would say the French beasted England more than Ireland did come scrum time... and against France they had Cole not Wilson.

Ireland have as good a scrum as I can remember at the moment but the French for me, they are better than the boks here.

Cole clearly had an underlying injury though didnt he?

fa0019 wrote:

rodders wrote:I'll bet 2 euro we'll get the edge in the scrum. I'll eat my hat if the old rolling maul doesn't make a few appearances too  .

I would say the French beasted England more than Ireland did come scrum time... and against France they had Cole not Wilson.

Ireland have as good a scrum as I can remember at the moment but the French for me, they are better than the boks here.

Even if you are correct and the scrum will favour France, it will be marginal whereas Irelands lineout is in a much better place and I think we will have the edge on the deck. Therefore on balance we will get the upper hand the key areas if all goes to form.

GunsGerms wrote:

fa0019 wrote:

rodders wrote:I'll bet 2 euro we'll get the edge in the scrum. I'll eat my hat if the old rolling maul doesn't make a few appearances too  .

I would say the French beasted England more than Ireland did come scrum time... and against France they had Cole not Wilson.

Ireland have as good a scrum as I can remember at the moment but the French for me, they are better than the boks here.

Cole clearly had an underlying injury though didnt he?

Not sure how much you can gain from comparing France/Ireland against England. Cole, irrespective of whether he was carrying an injury, looked like a player in desperate need of a rest. Wilson however was playing on the back of 47 minutes rugby in 3 months.

I personally dont think we will dominate France's scrum but reckon we will hold our own there. I reckon we will dominate their lineout though or try to anyway.

France have decent bench front row options too.

Form really isn't the issue this time - apart from the strike running of the back three, there is no area in which you could possibly give a clear edge to France. The environment alone, plus a set of opposition jerseys against which Ireland has been victorious just four times in the last thirty years on all grounds, poses a massive mental challenge.

If that can be overcome, and it should be clear early in the game whether that is the case, we may even see a thumping victory. As I say, though, that is one almighty if.

Here's a question.

If Ireland beat France and win the title will this be a greater achievement the 2009's GS?

I personally would say so, and by a distance - given how strong the top 4 teams are compared to then and how we've played.

If we can take the title in Paris then this for me would surpass any result in Irish rugby in recent years - including provincial level.

Think Ireland have played much better to take three wins so far this year than they did at almost any stage of the GS year, rodders. There were passages of the French game when the 2009 side touched the heights, but I seemed to remember that they were pretty ordinary against Scotland and they toughed it out against Wales and England without ever looking as accomplished all-round as they consistently have this year.

That said, a GS takes some winning, as the fact that Ireland have only ever won two of them tends to confirm. A championship would be fantastic this year, the more so because it wasn't exactly heralded, but does it trump a GS? Not quite, at least not for me.

No it doesn't trump a GS, I'm asking if it trumps the GS that we achieved in the pro era. I think if we win in it in Paris then it would.

Not to add additional pressure but that's how significant it would be.

It would be equivalent in terms of significance to 2009. Winning 4 or 5 games in an odd-numbered year is normally beyond Ireland. We'd have to win in Paris to win the championship which is very rare.

In that case, still no. Four more points against England and you get a different answer, but in 2009, Ireland were in the middle of a fruitful era, with a new coach to add what we hoped was extra zing (!), and we had the expectation that more of the same might follow. Now, although there are some good young 'uns coming through, the fact remains that the average age is still a little too high to expect sustained short-term success of the kind that we're watching this year. Medium-term should be different.

Hope I'm wrong in that regard, but in general, if we say that England are much better than they were in 09, Scotland and Italy relatively the same, but France and Wales significantly less strong this year, I would still give the palm to the GS team.

rodders wrote:Here's a question.

If Ireland beat France and win the title will this be a greater achievement the 2009's GS?

I personally would say so, and by a distance - given how strong the top 4 teams are compared to then and how we've played.

If we can take the title in Paris then this for me would surpass any result in Irish rugby in recent years - including provincial level.

You can think it.  But don't say it to either DOD or Sin.  That's 40 pages of stats, and sub arguments, and paragraph B in the small print for you, rodders.

A GS is a GS.  We left our chance behind us in England when as good as England really are, had we been smarter we still had the potential to nick it.

So regardless of how much more potent this Ireland looks, this Ireland is playing for a Championship.  Kidney must be given his honour where honour is due.  

It's still a B- for me on Schmidt's first 6N, even if we win.  And I think he'll think the same.  That England game will be the one he fixates on the most if we beat France.  England was a game for the taking (despite how very well met we were by the English - which I take nothing from in analysing what Ireland could have done)  Schmidt will go over it and over it; and it was probably the better long term result that we actually lost it.

rodders wrote:Here's a question.

If Ireland beat France and win the title will this be a greater achievement the 2009's GS?

I personally would say so, and by a distance - given how strong the top 4 teams are compared to then and how we've played.

If we can take the title in Paris then this for me would surpass any result in Irish rugby in recent years - including provincial level.

Eh? The top 4 teams are unquestionably stronger now than before with the exception of France who we will have to beat in Paris. In 2009 England were shocking, Wales pushed us all the way but still werent great. Scotland are about the same and Italy are better.

Winning a championship playing England and France away is always going to be harder so I dont think a championship win this year would be far off the slam in terms of achievement.

We'll agree to disagree - for me (assuming we beat France) this will be better in every regard.

Italy are much stronger - Scotland aren't, Wales have a team full of young Lions and multi championship winners and England are a very good team on the up.

The games we've won we've done efficiently and convincingly versus the few we played our get out of jail card last time or relied on BOD to get us over the line.

Everything could come unstuck in Paris but if we win in any description then this would be the best achievement from any Irish team in the pro era - in real terms, if not historically.

That's about the size of it, Secret. That and the fact that I could do without any extra undue pressure being heaped onto what is already a nerve-racking prospect.

GunsGerms wrote:

rodders wrote:Here's a question.

If Ireland beat France and win the title will this be a greater achievement the 2009's GS?

I personally would say so, and by a distance - given how strong the top 4 teams are compared to then and how we've played.

If we can take the title in Paris then this for me would surpass any result in Irish rugby in recent years - including provincial level.

Eh? The top 4 teams are unquestionably stronger now than before with the exception of France who we will have to beat in Paris. In 2009 England were shocking, Wales pushed us all the way but still werent great. Scotland are about the same and Italy are better.

Isn't that exactly what I said?

  Yes sorry Rodders. I read your post wrong.

I've a feeling that Guns may have been disagreeing with me, rodders, which is fair enough. I'm not sure, though, that the Italian side of last Saturday, shorn of Parisse (and Castro, for all but the first five minutes), were significantly better than the team of 09. Nor that Wales, also defending champions in 09, were much weaker then than the in-and-out lot that we've seen in 2014. Overall, there's not that much in it, if we agree that France have fallen off a cliff and that England are scaling it pretty quickly. Therefore, that extra win has to count for something.

SecretFly wrote:
It's still a B- for me on Schmidt's first 6N, even if we win.  

And that's fine but in then my relative scale Kidney would get a B- or maybe a C.

As it is, being a glass half full man, I'd be giving both an A but not an A* given the scope for improvement in performance.

Deccies would be a lucky A versus Schmidts though because but for a bit good fortune he could be sitting on C or D. whereas Joes (potential) A is built on consistent and repeatable performance and the absence, so far, of luck,

captain carrantuohil wrote:I've a feeling that Guns may have been disagreeing with me, rodders, which is fair enough. I'm not sure, though, that the Italian side of last Saturday, shorn of Parisse (and Castro, for all but the first five minutes), were significantly better than the team of 09. Nor that Wales, also defending champions in 09, were much weaker then than the in-and-out lot that we've seen in 2014. Overall, there's not that much in it, if we agree that France have fallen off a cliff and that England are scaling it pretty quickly. Therefore, that extra win has to count for something.

A slam is worth more but on the face of it not much more really. The slam in '09 was won om small margins. We only snook past a fairly dire England team at home that time whereas this time we almost beat the best England team since '03 in Twickers. If it was in Landsdowne I reckon we would have won.

I think this championship is slightly harder to win. Depends which France turn up. However its useless comparing this to 09. Kidney, like him or not, got Ireland over the line. The players had a lot of mental baggage at that stage because only Munster players had experienced winning anything.


As for the match, I think Ireland will play well. Sexton worries me most though. We all wanted 1 thing mainly from Schmidt, a bit of consistency. We seem to have that now and the team is working like clockwork for the most part.


I also think France have too many areas to improve on. Out wide they have an advantage especially with Huget who is looking world class. Other than that, with Ireland's discipline, I think France will find it hard to score and get frustrated.

In 2009 it felt fantastic to get that GS monkey off our backs. Emotions ran high and tears of joy were shed. Not for a moment did I feel that Ireland were the best team by even the smallest margin. This year however I feel that on the current forms of all the sides Ireland stand out. We should really have beaten England and been going for a GS but a championship win will do very well thanks.
I think what I am trying to say is that we deserve the win this year and in 2009 we were lucky to have finished on top. Make sense? No? Me neither

Huget player of the tournament for me.

The present is the present.... and comparing it to 2009 is only a disservice to the team in 2009 that had to be dragged back to confidence every bit as much as this one needed a confidence boost.  So when we say all competitors were shyte in 2009, so had we proved to be in the months before the Slam.  Shyte playing shyte, but we were better shyte than five of them.  That's the story of 2009.  

Here we are with Leinster as triple HEC Champions.  Here we are with Ulster as HEC finalists, here we are with slick SH coaches at all Provinces pushing up performances (even Lam seems to be getting some traction now)... here we are in a time when we have the right to think we can take GSs.  

And we lost out on the chance by 3.  That might seem cruel fate... but it might also be described as criminally sloppy.

We'll ask ourselves which it was after the French game, depending on how it goes.  But there absolutely will be voices on the fringes, if we win the Championship, saying we let a GS slip through our fingers by lacking belief enough in Twickenham.

Anyway, constructive criticism of 2014 doesn't mean I'm not very very happy.  I am.  Ireland are finally beginning to play like I and most of us always believed they could.  They are playing for 80 and they are showing a beautiful ruthless streak that all aspiring great sides aspire to.

I'm delighted this year has shown us we have still so much to work on to make it better.  Let 2009 have its glory and let's hopefully enjoy 2014 for the rewards it has given us.  Nothing finished yet.... a game to go.

Definitely the French player of the tournament and you may have an argument for overall, bearing in mind where he plays and who he has to play with, Guns.

If you stack Huget up against Healy, Brown, Denton, Campagnaro and Halfpenny/Faletau, who might be my choices for each competing country this year, I doubt you'd get Huget off the podium.

Its between Brown and Huget. Brown will get it if England win the championship I reckon. If Drico gets a hat trick in Paris and Ireland win the championship he might get it too.

SecretFly wrote:The present is the present.... and comparing it to 2009 is only a disservice to the team in 2009

Yes I think that's not what I was trying to do, rather point out that for me personally the absence of a GS here doesn't diminish the significance of this game and what an achievement it would be to win it. For me personally it would be more impressive than what we did in 2009 given the context.

If England win then France will have to beat us by 30 + whatever England beat Italy by to claim the title. Will that have an impact? If it was any other team I'd say no, any home win would be motivation enough, but for France... Score early and I think they'll lose interest.

rodders wrote:

SecretFly wrote:The present is the present.... and comparing it to 2009 is only a disservice to the team in 2009

Yes I think that's not what I was trying to do, rather point out that for me personally the absence of a GS here doesn't diminish the significance of this game and what an achievement it would be to win it. For me personally it would be more impressive than what we did in 2009 given the context.

I know that rodders. You're just adding a topic to the running discussions here. I'm not accusing you of anything seditious just me answering the topic with thoughts of my own.

I'd just like to add that I also think that it will be one hell of an achievement anyway. I'm just trying not to tempt fate, polishing rabbits' paws, saluting magpies and not walking under ladders in the interim. Before next Saturday, in any case, I have to get through the annual liver test that is Cheltenham, where plenty of other Irish folk will be doing the same, for a variety of reasons.

Isn't the player of the tournament voted for by fans? If Ireland win it then it will be BOD. Mike Brown is the front runner for me

Mickado wrote:If England win then France will have to beat us by 30 + whatever England beat Italy by to claim the title. Will that have an impact? If it was any other team I'd say no, any home win would be motivation enough, but for France... Score early and I think they'll lose interest.

Yes I think it will, not a massive one but if France know they can't mathematically win the championship then that is better for us. They'll be hugely motivated to win in front of their home crowd but even more so if the title is at stake for them - certainly it will add to the atmosphere and crowd.

What if Ireland lose and France and England equal Ireland on points difference ? I understand there's a foot race back to HQ. But surely that's a disadvantage to England who are in Rome? Was the draw decided on this on purpose?

Standulstermen wrote:Isn't the player of the tournament voted for by fans? If Ireland win it then it will be BOD. Mike Brown is the front runner for me

For now. Brown faces Italy. BOD faces France. Italy are wooden spooners. France are contenders. If BOD puts in a good performance again then it's definite that POM will and should get the Player of the Tournament

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:What if Ireland lose and France and England equal Ireland on points difference ? I understand there's a foot race back to HQ. But surely that's a disadvantage to England who are in Rome? Was the draw decided on this on purpose?

Probably comes down to the result of their game, which would mean France. Not 100%, tries scored is more commonly used to separate teams on the same number of match points.

I can't see anything other than a comfortable Irish win. I don't buy this 'France are a great team just waiting to get it together'. They're pants and have been for some years. They needed the ball to act as their 16th man for the only game they looked ok in this 6N.

How many intercepts and opposition fumbles did French fortunes turn on this year?

It takes a special player to 'fall on' so many opposition mistakes, but this Huget guy is having a field-day