Ulster 2013/2014

First topic message reminder :

Any reason why he didnt make an appearance for the Ravens?

KiaRose wrote:

BTW, Jennifer, if you want to put a fada on, use Ctrl+Alt+letter - Síle ...

Fair point. Not sure the Scots or the Nordies would appreciate the difference (or even notice) though.   

Of course we care. How else can we say Ruaidhrí Murphy properly?

The Front Row Union seem pretty certain Stuart Hogg is a done deal- I'm still not convinced. They've been wrong before after all. I suppose if Jared Payne is going to play at 13 in the big games next year he'd be a useful enough signing, but when compared to the dire need we're in for more players to come into our forward pack it seems like a bit of a luxury signing.

I'd rather we announced a lock, a back row and a hooker! In that order... But if we get a British and Irish Lion, no sense in turning our nose up. Just need to have a better pack to get the back line the ball or it won't matter really.

Still think it's more of a rumour than fact tbh.

If Hogg is coming in surely it adds creedance to the Payne to leinster rumours?

At the very least Cave should be off.

If Hogg replaced Payne, we'd definitely be getting the worse end of that deal

Like I said before though, what if the plan is to have a quality 2ndxv. Maybe theres a belief that this is how you win trophies. I'll have a go at a 2nd XV if Payne is at 13
9 Marshall
10 iHumph
11 Gilroy
12 McCloskey
13 Cave
14 Scholes
15 Olding (Ludik?)

the 1st XV bacline being

9 Pienaar
11 trimble
12 Marshall
13 Payne
14 Bowe
15 Hogg

Thats a lot of ifs and buts, but thats quite a 2nd XV backline. This season it would have been:

9 Marshall
10 McKinney
11 Gilroy
12 McCloskey
13 Allen
14 Scholes
15 Andrew      ...GOOD GRIEF!

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

KiaRose wrote:

BTW, Jennifer, if you want to put a fada on, use Ctrl+Alt+letter - Síle ...

Fair point. Not sure the Scots or the Nordies would appreciate the difference (or even notice) though.   

How terribly racist. 

I'm not certain we could keep both Payne and Cave if Hogg comes in (I'm with Notch, I think it's unlikely).

Our pack is what will need strengthened next season. A backline of

Pienaar
Jackson
Trimble
Marshall
Olding
Bowe
Payne

And a backup of

Marshall (no one else really)
Humph Jr
Gilroy
McCloskey
Cave
Scholes
Ludik (another rumour)

Looks solid enough to me. Backrow with Doyle going is a different story. I do think Herbst will prove to be a good signing and I think our first choice front row will be decent. It's the backup that worries me

Hogg is also a serviceable outside centre (he scored 3 tries in a single game against Munster from that position last season). And if your name is Warren Gatland, Hoggy is also a 10.

In fairness, he does fit with the type of utility player we have been rumoured to be looking at so far - Robinson and Ludik also were as versatile.

Unless there was a reason we were suddenly allowed another NIQ? So we got the same type of player only a higher standard.

It does sound a little like we are lsoing cave or payne though...

The stormont hotel thing, could be explained away. but the FRU article suggests they were getting other info from sources unrelated to the stormont hotel photo.

The FRU have got it wrong many many times though. So who knows.

Best thing would be for UR to get the finger out and just announce who they have... unless... they don't actually have anyone at all yet...   

An awful lot of hot air being expended based on one meeting which could have been about anything or more likely nothing.

The only, remote, way this is going to happen is if Payne is off to Leinster

People starting to wonder if Cave is staying now - what utter nonsense to speculate he is leaving
Can we please leave the world of Alice in Wonderland and return to the real world.

In an ideal world we would be allowed to keep Jared Payne at 15 and Cave at 13 and not need to sign someone else. But I just feel the IRFUs meddling hands all over where Jared Payne plays next season. Horrible anticipation.

There have been rumours about Cave wanting away for a while now Geoff. He would get more across the water and to be honest, despite Schmidt name checking him I think he will get passed over again for the green jersey.

Why not make more money for a few years? I rate him but I think he may well not be our first choice next season

Lets be honest, if you were to turn down
13 Payne
15 Hogg

in favour of keeping
13 Cave
15 Payne

It would be for purely loyalty/sentimental reasons.

In short, if it means we lose Cave, I'm ok with Hogg. If it means we lose Payne, I'm not ok with it.

Ideally, I'd keep all three, but it the numbers just don't add up for that to be true really...

The word on UAFC, from the most " in the know" poster, is that Hogg, whilst back in Belfast to see family, asked for the meeting, but Ulster weren't overly interested.

Makes sense.

Disappointing for Glasgow if that's true

What - "professional rugby player has chat with another club" shocker?

Don Alfonso wrote:The word on UAFC,  from the most " in the know" poster, is that Hogg, whilst back in Belfast to see family, asked for the meeting, but Ulster weren't overly interested.

Makes sense.

Saw that. The two back lines i put forward are still doable for next season given Ludik and Humph are both strongly rumoured. That's seriously strong. Up front is the worry

Don Alfonso wrote:What - "professional rugby player has chat with another club" shocker?

That their best player wants to leave? Ye I would say that is disappointing from a Glasgow supporters POV

It's just a lack of depth up front really, I mean... I would rather Herring was going than Annett. Herring is a decent all rounder but has been disappointing over the past few months.

We need depth in the second row, in the back row and at hooker. We're one injury away from disaster in the pack and injury is so, so common in the modern game.

Standulstermen wrote:There have been rumours about Cave wanting away for a while now Geoff.

I know but like most rumours it is rubbish.

Cave is going nowhere

Glad to see the one person on the Ulster forum is confirming what I have been told - Hogg is not and never was coming to Ulster.

I have yet to come across a shred of evidence to suggest Cave and Payne will be lining up for someone other than Ulster next year
or indeed a shred of evidence that Hogg will be an Ulster player

For a bit of light hearted fun I thought I would post my marks out of ten on the rumours circulating

Doyle leaving 10/10
O'Hagan joining 9/10
iHump joining 9/10
Backrower joining IQ 7/10
Ludik joining 6/10
van der Merwe joining 5/10 and/or NIQ replacement 9/10
Hooker joining IQ 4.5/10
Payne leaving 2/10
McGrath joining 1/10
Hogg joining 0.5/10
Cave leaving 0/10

My big concerns are an experienced replacement for Muller and a replacement for Doyle. Even if we didn't get iHumph, Olding could fill in there if we're pushed. Although it wouldn't be hugely experienced, a 10-12 of Olding and McCloskey wouldn't be bad at Rabo level. Hopefully iHumph is coming, though.

I know Afoa was on a renegotiated, reduced rate give his unavailability, but how much money will be freed up next season by those leaving?

Presumably with Payne going onto a central contract, Muller leaving, Court leaving there'd be a decent amount. Presumably Herbst will be on a good wage, but no-one else coming in would be costly, surely? I'd like a second row of Muller's stature, ideally.

Herbst was 3rd choice TH at the sharks. I doubt he is on megabucks and certainly nowhere near Afoa. If Johann had as much coaching influence as we are led to believe then surely we need to get another coach aswell?

I know you're joking, but I'm less covinced about Anscombe this year. Some fairly ropey losses on our sheet. Glasgow at home, Cardiff away, for example.

geoff998rugby wrote:For a bit of light hearted fun I thought I would post my marks out of ten on the rumours circulating

Doyle leaving 10/10
O'Hagan joining 9/10
iHump joining 9/10
Backrower joining IQ 7/10
Ludik joining 6/10
van der Merwe joining 5/10 and/or NIQ replacement 9/10
Hooker joining IQ 4.5/10
Payne leaving 2/10
McGrath joining 1/10
Hogg joining 0.5/10
Cave leaving 0/10

The whole thing about Hogg coming is just getting ridiculous, so many people claiming to have knowledge of the deal being done    

marty2086 wrote:

geoff998rugby wrote:For a bit of light hearted fun I thought I would post my marks out of ten on the rumours circulating

Doyle leaving 10/10
O'Hagan joining 9/10
iHump joining 9/10
Backrower joining IQ 7/10
Ludik joining 6/10
van der Merwe joining 5/10 and/or NIQ replacement 9/10
Hooker joining IQ 4.5/10
Payne leaving 2/10
McGrath joining 1/10
Hogg joining 0.5/10
Cave leaving 0/10

The whole thing about Hogg coming is just getting ridiculous, so many people claiming to have knowledge of the deal being done    

Don't want to worry you Marty, but the Glasgow team for the Edinburgh game has been named.

What Toonie does when he issues a teamsheet is that he also adds notes at the end saying which players are currently carrying injuries, just to let everyone know why they weren't selected. Hogg isn't in the 23 and he isn't on the injury roster either. Which is strange. All I'm saying is that it's Strange.

Maybe he and Toonie have an issue, hence approaching Ulster?

It's possible. Unfortunately for him, the man ordinarily his understudy in the 15 shirt (Peter Murchie) has been playing out of his skin since coming back from injury and there's a valid argument that Hogg should not be starting for Glasgow anyway.

Add to that the fact that Glasgow has a number of extremely versatile utility backs who are good bench options for that reason (Niko Matawalu, Peter Horne, Mark Bennett, Richie "I can also play loose forward, you know" Vernon) plus Toonie's preference for a 4-3 bench split, and you have fairly limited opportunity for game time if you're the Hoggmeister.

By his standards, there is no question that he has been poor this year - both for club and certainly in the Six Nations, where he did precisely Felicity Alexander. Oh, apart from getting sent off and fecking the entire match against Wales, that is.

All joking aside, it does suggest a player who is unsettled.

The guy in question on the supporters site is rarely wrong though GC and he says Ulster aren't interested. I think its a safe bet now he wont be wearing white next season.

Don

im not any more or less sold on Anscombe after this year, In truth I think there was plenty of evidence to say he learned from last years HEC but we got shafted by the Payne card. I
n the league there have been some disappointing results but if you bear in mind the first two defeats its again the fringe guys that aren't doing It for us. The McKinneys, McIlwaines, Joyces (given he isn't featuring) etc that aren't making the step up in the same way that (as an example) some of the Glasgow youngsters seem to be doing.

GC even if he has signed for Ulster, from what geoff has said the club have gotten tighter in regards to rumours and the number claiming to be in the know about it would suggest otherwise

Allllllll I'm doing is giving you guys information.
  

Standulstermen wrote:The guy in question on the supporters site is rarely wrong though GC and he says Ulster aren't interested. I think its a safe bet now he wont be wearing white next season.

Don

im not any more or less sold on Anscombe after this year, In truth I think there was plenty of evidence to say he learned from last years HEC but we got shafted by the Payne card. I
n the league there have been some disappointing results but if you bear in mind the first two defeats its again the fringe guys that aren't doing It for us. The McKinneys, McIlwaines, Joyces (given he isn't featuring) etc that aren't making the step up in the same way that (as an example) some of the Glasgow youngsters seem to be doing.

No - none of those three have been knock-out. Far from it.

But Olding looked really excellent until he was injured, McCloskey has been an unexpected talent, Andrew has come on, Scholes has looked good, as has Herring. A number of our youngsters aren't "fringe guys" - Jackson, Henderson, Gilroy, Marshall.

We lost to Cardiff with a very good team out because we were focussed on the Sarries game, Cave scored an early try, and the team thought "it's in the bag" and went for a nap. Cardiff rightly showed us up. Anscombe needs to address that mentality.

Don Alfonso wrote:

Standulstermen wrote:The guy in question on the supporters site is rarely wrong though GC and he says Ulster aren't interested. I think its a safe bet now he wont be wearing white next season.

Don

im not any more or less sold on Anscombe after this year, In truth I think there was plenty of evidence to say he learned from last years HEC but we got shafted by the Payne card. I
n the league there have been some disappointing results but if you bear in mind the first two defeats its again the fringe guys that aren't doing It for us. The McKinneys, McIlwaines, Joyces (given he isn't featuring) etc that aren't making the step up in the same way that (as an example) some of the Glasgow youngsters seem to be doing.

No - none of those three have been knock-out. Far from it.

But Olding looked really excellent until he was injured, McCloskey has been an unexpected talent, Andrew has come on, Scholes has looked good, as has Herring. A number of our youngsters aren't "fringe guys" - Jackson, Henderson, Gilroy, Marshall.

We lost to Cardiff with a very good team out because we were focussed on the Sarries game, Cave scored an early try, and the team thought "it's in the bag" and went for a nap. Cardiff rightly showed us up. Anscombe needs to address that mentality.

Its the same old debate though we always have with various coaches - ulster and irish - and I'll give you the same old typical response...

Is a coaches job to tell players to win a game. I kinda thought players would know themselves to win games.
Yea maybe Anscombe is at fault, but the fault would be the failure to keep the players focussed, rather than failing to focus the players. Does that make sense?

In other words, Anscombe should have sorted it, but the players minds should be right by themselves. If the players minds were on the Sarries game, then thats unprofessional of them regardless of the coach. You don't need your coach to tell you that every win is important since you might get knocked out of the other competition.

thats my point though Don. I think Cardiff and scarlets away were two defeats when we were caught napping (albeit with HEC the next weekend) but I don't think thats enough to be overly critical.

As I mentioned, the Montpelier away game and Leicester away showed how he has learned lessons in the competition and we benefitted from the tactics. That's not to say I think he needs a longer/another extension. I just wouldn't be overly critical of him.

Some fresh blood after next season may well be very, very welcome.

Standulstermen wrote:thats my point though Don. I think Cardiff and scarlets away were two defeats when we were caught napping (albeit with HEC the next weekend) but I don't think thats enough to be overly critical. .

I do. Those defeats are the difference between us coasting to a home semi-final right now and our current situation, which is scrapping for 4th place. You can add Dragons away, Glasgow at home and Glasgow away to that list. If we had won just 2 of the 5 games we've utterly failed to turn up for in the league this season we'd be on easy street, contemplating a home semi-final and very possibly a home final at Ravenhill. Instead we're probably gonna have to win away from home twice in the playoffs to win the championship if we manage to squeak into fourth place.

In the past two seasons, it's been games where we pay well below our potential that have cost us shots at silverware and Anscombe seems to be no closer to sorting that out now than he has been before.

I agree with taking the whole of next season to sort out his successor and not panicking and sacking him now, but it's frustrating to see us fail due to being inconsistent and complacent when we are good enough to succeed.

Yeah - he's not been a disaster, by any stretch. And I would agree 100% about the Montpellier game. I thought our game management was superb - Jackson was assured and canny. I actually thought it was a real maturation of the team, but in hindsight, I'm not convinced. I just thought we'd kick on more, to be honest. I wish we'd use Marshall more imaginatively (God knows he's capable of it). I wish we'd get our response to a good rolling maul sorted.

The real issue is that our squad is so small. I understand we want no dead wood, and Humph has been ruthless, but I think we're under the optimal squad size, to the point it's a problem. When you have a senior squad of 35/36 players, and you lose Wallace, Olding, Farrell and McAllister to season-ending injury, Afoa is only here half the season, and inury-plagued players like Ferris and Fitzpatrick are on board, you need a fair bt of luck.

Sometimes we have had a bit of fortune - Rory Best's astonishing ability to regenerate like Wolverine, Pienaar's inury-free run (until the quarter-final). Losing four inside centres to injury may sound like awful luck, but we had McCloskey to come in. What if we had lost four scrumhalves? Or even four locks? 12 is the one position where we can lose four players and still have a decent option.

The reality is though we cannot afford a big squad ff we are to compete quality wise with the big European giants.

This is why we simply must produce more players through the academy - if we don't we will not be at the top table in 5 - 10 years.
There are only so many Herring, Doyle, Ryan, Black, Tuohy type rabbits you can pull out of a hat

I thought we should be saving some money this year Geoff. I'd have thought Van Der Merve would be on less that Muller. Herbst on a lot less than Afoa, and Payne centrally contracted.

combine this with the loss of a fair few players, and the higher ticket capacity of ravers next year, we should be able to afford to replace the guys going plus 3/4 extra squad players.

But right now... worryingly... we sound like our squad is due to be even smaller than it is at present.

clive, I may be wrong, but with the new European tournament it is the Irish provinces that will suffer most financially so that will see a drop in revenue for Ulster in that area and I doubt the Sky deal for the Pro12 will make up much of the difference

Notch

that's where we differ in our opinion on the season. I think the first two games we were let down by some fringe players (as well some more experienced guys). I certainly wouldn't attribute the Glasgow at home game to Anscombe. We battered Glasgow and couldn't score. If I recall right both Luke Marshall and someone else (was it Herring?) dropped balls when all they had to do was fall over the line.

similarly im not too critical after the last Glasgow game. There was a 14 point swing in that game down to the officials. Im not saying we were better than Glasgow or anything but we got shafted in the first twenty minutes of the 2nd half. Given the lack of options at that point and acknowledging that we were up against a good team im not going to lay into Anscombe for it.

Geoff

In fairness we have Pienaar next season confirmed. Aside from him who is on big,big money that isn't centrally contracted? Williams was a hail mary so I refuse to believe he commands megabucks. Ludik, Herbst, VDM I would put in the same bracket. I fail to see where the marquee players are that are contributing to a small squad outside of Ruan.

Don't think we will see a drop in revenue next year.

The Pro12 nations have a guaranteed slice of the cake which equates,roughly, with what they got before.
The issue arises if the revenue goes through the roof and the English and French take 2/3rd of it for themselves.
Then we are in trouble.
That's a few years off yet though.
On the plus side we have more gate, revenue, more merchandise income and a TV deal for the Pro12 all of which boost income.

Regarding salaries we are losing 2 high profile players Muller and Afoa and gaining, probably, a TH, Lock and 1 back.
Herbst, van der Merwe, Ludik my not be top bracket salaries but they wont be cheap either
Doing the maths the saving will not be that big - and see below.

As to squad size I doubt it will be that different from this year - few academy players promoted I expect.
- Warwick, McCall, Joyce, O'Connor, Scholes all come to mind.
Also a few Doyle, Herring types I suspect

Remember that some of Henderson, Olding, Marshall, Jackson, Lutton, Black + Gilroy will be looking for a significant pay rises next time round  given that many of them are on low salaries at present - that will eat up any saving from the big names going.

Stand, the one that really pushed me off the deep end was against Cardiff. That was such a massive, pivotal game in the context of our league season and to go out and play like that when it was so important... only the losses against Saints and Sarries irritated last season me more.

That game will be the difference between us getting a home semi-final and not, and the difference between us winning the competition or not might well be down to not getting a home semi-final.

I was furious about that performance. Absolutely furious. Massive turning point in the context of the season no matter what happened the week after. If we had beaten Saracens, it wouldn't have changed or position in the Pro12.

The Lions are now pretty much publicly confirming that Franco van der Merwe is coming to Ulster. With the deals on Humph/O'Hagan apparently done there are three more spots to fill on my wish list.

-Backrow
-Hooker
-Utility Back

Sound right -as I indicated 2 of those will be IQ

That's good news on VDM. A lad I know who watches super rugby says he will do well.

I hear what you are saying about that Cardiff game Notch but that's one of the reasons I think our focus was more HEC than last year. If you compare the two pre qf games between this season and last, the difference is massive.

That said compare our HEC qfs the difference is massive again.

I would go with that wishlist Notch. All being well

I wonder if this hooker is IQ? Name sounds right...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damien_Fitzpatrick

'Van der Merwe's loyalty is epitomised in the fact that, after undergoing ankle surgery, he recently returned - on his crutches - to help out the Lions Under-19 team with their line-out sessions.'

http://www.rugby365.com/article/59658-franco-replaces-johann-at-ulster

Van der Merwe confirmed as a 2 year deal

Is VDM a leader? That's a key area Ulster need to replace with Muller off