Week 16 - predos open

Predos in by 9am Wednesday

Racing Metro 92 vs Natal Sharks

Stade Olympique Yves-du-Manoir

16 degrees, sunny spells, 2mph winds

Racing Metro

01. Eddy Ben Arous	09. Ben Youngs
02. Andries Strauss	10. Jonathon Sexton (k)
03. Juan Figallo
04. Juandre Kruger	11. Juan Imhoff
05. Brodie Retallick	12. Jamie Roberts
06. Steven Luatua	13. Marcelo Bosch
07. Francois Louw (c)	14. Ben Smith
08. Toby Faletau	15. Kurtley Beale

16. Soane Tonghu'ia  17. Dimitri Szarzewski 18. Luc Ducalcon 19. Dan Lydiate 20. Bernard Le Roux 21. Maxime Machenaud 22. Jonathon Wisnewski 23. Marc Andreu

TACTICS TBC
At home and in good form, we look to take on the Sharks, who we lost out to narrowly on the away leg. We've been lucky with injuries and there are some areas that we will look to target in our gameplan to pick out weaknesses in our opponents


- We think we have the upper hand at 9 10 12 13 and we will look to target these areas in attack, keeping it narrow with Beale and Smith looking to come in on the Sexton wrap around
- In defence we will get at Michalak and Cooper and look to scrag and frustrate them, using an outside blitz, which will help reduce ball to their outside backs. Scrum half will sweep
- With a Sharks team looking to dominate the collisions up front, we will look to keep the ball out of contact, recycling and offloading where possible. We will use the 1 out channels and with the pace and carrying of our back row, we will look to run down the 10 channel
- With Sharks throwing men into the ruck, we won't over commit when we can't win the ball, looking to force a turnover at the second ruck, where we have more chance of winning the turnover. On the counter attack, Beale, Sexton, Smith are a deadly trio to play instinctively
- Target Cooper in defence, using, Luatua, Louw and Faletau on inside ball and  Bosch and Roberts on the outside pop
- Keep the ball in hand and only kick if going for touch, looking to reduce Sharks counter attacking ability and not give their back three easy ball to run back, as they are all very good under the high ball
- Use Sexton flat on the gainline, drawing defenders, with Bosch and Roberts offering short pops and Faletau, Retallick offering the inside ball to keep them narrow. Smith and Bosch both encouraged to come into the line either before Roberts or on his shoulder, looking for the offload.

The Sharks
DoR: Ozzy3213

01. Cian Healy	09. Freddie Michalak
02. Stephen Moore (c)	10. Quade Cooper
03. Jannie du Plessis
04. Pieter-Steph du Toit	11. George North
05. Courtney Lawes	12. Francois Steyn
06. Marcell Coetzee	13. Paul Jordaan
07. Willem Alberts	14. JP Pietersen
08. Billy Vunipola	15. Mike Brown

16. Bismarck du Plessis 17. Tendai Mtawarira 18. Lourens Adriaanse 19. Joe Launchbury 20. Sergio Parisse 21. Charl McLeod 22. Patric Lambie 23. Marland Yarde

TACTICS

We will play a traditional South African gameplan in the forwards, being ultra physical and looking to dominate the collisions in attack and defence.  We are aiming to control possession by running the ball in great conditions, using the pack and big backs off first phase ball, with support runners on the ball carriers shoulder for the offloads in or just prior to contact.  We will be looking to play our game at a high tempo. Cooper will play flat with the outside backs coming from positions of depth to gain momentum.  In defence we will employ the blitz and look to hit the ball carrier before he hits the gainline to stop Crusaders getting any momentum.  Danny Care will act as a sweeper behind the defensive line.

• Breakdown.  In attack we will put numbers in rucking past the ball to free it up quickly to go again.  If on Michalak will snipe to keep us going forwards.  In defence we will be selective.  If it is on to clear out and turn ball over we will throw numbers in to do so, otherwise we will keep a strong defensive line.
  
• Spaces not faces.  Our runners will target the gaps in the defensive line rather than defenders and look to breach the gainline regularly.  
  
• Wingers. North and Pietersen to track the play off their wings looking for the offloads to go through gaps in midfield, with North often used either on the inside crash ball or as decoy.
  
• First receiver. Steyn to give the left/right option of two outside halfs to keep the Metro defence guessing which way we are going..
  
• Possession. We want to keep the ball and play through the phases.  We will kick if we have to but, but first option will always be to run the ball.
  
• Bench Huge impact players on the bench to bring on in the final quarter to either see the game out or get us back into it.
  

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Toulouse vs Stormers

Stade Ernest-Wallon

22 degrees, overcast, 8mph winds

Toulouse

Driver

01. Guthro Steenkamp	09. Ruan Pienaar
02. Tom Youngs	10. George Ford
03. John Afoa
04. Yoann Maestri	11. Jonny May
05. Romain Millo Chulski	12. Christian Lealifiano
06. Thierry Dusautoir	13. Gael Fickou
07. Michael Hooper	14. Maxi Medard
08. Louis Picamoles	15. Leigh Halfpenny (k)

16.Christopher Tolafua 17.Antonio Guillamon 18.Cencus Johnstone 19.Patrico Albacete 20.Yannick Nyanga 21.Jano Vermaak 22.Remi Tales 23.Horsea Gear


Stormers

01. Ben Franks	09. Will Genia
02. Schalk Brits (c)	10. Owen Farrell (k)
03. Nicolas Mas
04. Eben Etzebeth	11. Julian Savea
05. James Horwill	12. Juan De Jongh
06. Tom Wood	13. Mathieu Basteraud
07. Sean O'Brien	14. Christian Wade
08. Damien Chouly	15. Stuart Hogg

16. Deon Fourie 17. Alex Corbisiero 18. Brok Harris 19. Nathan Hines 20. Rynhardt Elstadt 21. Dewaldt Duvenage 22. Elton Jantjies 23. Jaco Taute

Look to play a simple game based around the strong set piece game to secure possession. The pack is full of heavy carriers to get over the gain line consistently and capable of clearing out the rucks quickly and efficiently to create quick ball when possible. Look to create quick ball off pods outside the fringe defences of the ruck. Genia and Faz to run the game. Genia will look to keep the defences honest and punish any lapse in fringe defence by sniping any holes. Looking for any quick ball for Genia to orchestrate the attacking movements of the backs, and to keep the opponents guessing. Faz to play flat in attack to bring in the centres who can play simple and direct rugby or get it wide to our dangerous back three.

Set-piece - strong and efficient, put pressure on in certain situations on opposition ball. Eg clearing kicks from scrums and line outs in their 22
Breakdown - Collectively look to clear ball and smash opposing players out of the way. Opposing slow down legally by flooding the breakdown and creating turnover ball
Channels - target carries down Ford and Fickou's channels as these two aren't renowned for the tackling in defence.  
Playing the %'s - Faz will keep the board ticking over and pegging the back.
Working on Players - Target Youngs' throwing at the lineout, get Wade and Savea running angles at the shoulders of fickou shoulder.

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Leicester Tigers vs Crusaders

Welford Road

13 degrees, overcast, 12mph winds

Leicester Tigers

CF

01. Benn Robinson	09. Greg Laidlaw (k)
02. George Chuter	10. Toby Flood
03. Martin Castrogiovanni
04. Paul O'Connell	11. Gonzalo Camacho
05. Louis Deacon	12. Anthony Allen
06. Tom Croft	13. Matt Smith
07. Pablo Matera	14. Cory Jane
08. Juan Manuel Leguizamon (c)	15. Juan Martin Hernandez

16. George Chuter 17.Boris Stankivich 18.Brian Muajti 19.Geoff Parling 20.Piri Weepu 21.Francois Trinh-Duc 22.Chris Ashton 23.Miles Benjamin

Looking for another physical encounter with strong forward play, and plenty of forward replacements looking to inflict damage onto the opponents. We want to get the ball to Matera and JML who will carry the ball and power over the gain-line. Laidlaw will box-kick cleverly when getting the ball, for the wingers and backs to run onto. Laidaw will be the main kicker with JMH as back up.

Crusaders

01. Vincent Debaty	09. Jonathan Pelissie
02. Dylan Hartley	10. Beauden Barrett(k)
03. Owen Franks
04. Luke Romano	11. Rene Ranger
05. Sam Whitelock	12. Luther Burrell
06. Chris Robshaw	13. Jonathan Davies
07. Richie McCaw (c)	14. Zac Guildford
08. Mamuka Gorgodze	15. Charles Piutau

16. Ben Funnell 17. Marcos Ayerza 18. Davit Zirakashvili 19. Dominic Bird 20. Kieran Read 21. Andrew Ellis 22. Tom Taylor 23. Scott Williams

Crusaders tactics based on the Tigers team for Week 15

Set piece - Debaty and Hartley to get after Castro, put maximum pressure on his side and give Franks the chance to take on Robinson with minimal support. At the lineout, defend the maul primarily, let them take the safe ball at the front and have Whitelock disrupting the middle and back. On our ball use all options but play safe if they start to get on top

Breakdown - target Matera, rest of back 5 not quite as good so look to hit him with next man in securing ball. Flankers and front 5 to focus on breakdown, clean ball is what we want so Barrett can start running.

Attack - Carry tight to the ruck, their pack lacks physicality and we want to take advantage. Then get Barrett running the show, he is free to take on the defence whenever he wants, Burrell/Davies to run their excellent lines off him with Ranger coming off his wing at Flood on the inside ball. Gorgodze to carry all day long, go straight up the middle

Bench - Taylor on early in second half as a second creator, as we go for the try bonus. Read and Williams on as our impact guys

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ASM Clermont Auvergne  vs Toulon

Parc des Sports Marcel Michelin

28 degrees, alternating sun and fog!!!, 9mph winds

ASMClermontAuvergne

Manager
= ChequeredJersey

01.  Thomas Domingo	09.  Morgan Parra (k)
02. Benjamin Kayser	10.    Nick Evans
03. Ben Tameifuina
04.  Samu Manoa	11. Sitiveni Sivivatu
05.  Julien Pierre	12. Ma'a Nonu
06. Ed Slater	13.   Aurelian Rougerie
07. Jacques Burger	14.  Napolioni Nalaga
08. JMF Lobbe	15. Willie Le Roux

16. Joe Marler 17. Corey Flynn 18. Clement Ric  19.   Jamie Cudmore 20. Sam Cane 21.Ludovic Radosavljevic 22.Kyle Godwin  .  23. Jared Payne

Tactics-

Back row work as a team at the breakdown, with Burger specifically working to turnover and spoil ball with the other 2 chipping in to win quick ball. Other forwards clear out but don't overcommit to yhe rucks unless a turnover is on

Attack- we will look to play running rugby, occasionally changing it up by testing their back 3 in the misty conditions with a chased high kick from our halfbacks. Slow ball to be worked into fast ball with carrying and mauling in the pack, or kicked as above. Fast ball to spun to Evans with Nonu as an option for both the crash (sucking in defenders so we can change the focus of attack) or as a runner distributor, with Riugerie and the back 3 running support lines and coming into the line. Look for inside balls to Le Roux and forwards like Big Ben and Manoa

Defence- blitz led by Rougerie, Parra cover tackling, hooker sweeping. Burger to look to harry Smith when free borderline legally like dragging him into rucks to stop Wilko getting good ball and force the attack narrow

Scrum- go hard knowing we have good subs

Lineout- mix up our options with lots of jumpers, Pierre to call. Challenge every opposition throw

Subs- go all out in pack with great subs and utility in the backs

Overall- we are at home. Focus on disruptive work at the breakdown and relentless attack and tempo and do everything to integrate Evans and take pressure off him eg Parra's kicking and the likes of Le Roux at 1st receiver

Toulon

01. Mako Vunipola 09. Aaron Smith
02. Richard Hibbard 10. Johnny Wilkinson(k)
03. Carl Hayman  
04. Jocelina Suta 11. Bryan Habana
05. Alun Wyn-Jones (c) 12. Matt Giteau
06. Julien Bonnaire 13. Adam Ashley-Cooper
07. Justin Tipuric 14. Craig Gilroy
08. Chris Masoe 15.Drew Mitchell

16. Kyle Cooper 17.Gethin Jenkins18. Dan Cole 19. Ali Williams 20. Juan Smith 21. Sebastian Tillous-Borde 22. Butch  James 23. Maxime Mermoz
Tactics
We will play a running game today and have selected a big pack to win us ball and a fast backrow to get around the park. Wilko will stand short and play heads up rugby, the pack will carry a lot as will our centres for quick ball. Strong front row with immense power to come on and a 2nd row who are used to driving players back come scrum time. We have selected a centre partnership who will make good breaks and look for quick recycling of the ball to keep them on the back foot and under constant pressure. Forwards will look to carry a lot in first 20 punching the holes before moving to running off of 12-13. We will be looking to target Slater off the back of the scrum as he is playing out of position.


*9-10 combo-we have Smith to Wilko who will then look to play a counter attacking game especially from turnover ball and using tight runners off 2nd phase ball.
*Bench-Our bench is full of impact and will look to dominate the end of the game.
*Defence-we have strong defensive leaders in Wilko and AAC and will look to slow down/turnover a lot of ball.
*Set Piece-power is key today at scrum time and in the lineouts using AWJ and Bonnaire's leading skills to get good ball.
*Breakdown-look to  here and use our abrasive pack to do this with heavy carrying and tactical breakdown slowing.

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Predos open chaps, close 9am Tuesday

Leaving predos open till Wednesday 9am, no one has predicted and I'm not going to have time today either!

I was going to do them tonight!

Yep, mine will be on tonight

... I'm basically being selfish then   

mine will be up tonight

Metro 20-20 Sharks
Toulouse 18-21 Stormers
Tigers 15-22 Crusaders

Racing Metro 92 35 - 34 Natal Sharks

With a slightly weakened side for Sharks, Metro spring a real surprise up front in this affair. Sharks are strong in the set piece still, but Metro are more adept at breakdown and really interrupt their momentum and flow in the game. Metro have a bit more form in the half backs, with Michalak playing at ten more recently. However fortunes are reversed in the backs and would like to see Metro juggle their back line a bit differently as Roberts is out of form and Beale could be an interesting change at 12. Sharks have some dangerous ball carriers in the backs and getting the ball into the hands of Brown, North and Steyn will make them a serious threat in the 22. 
In the end I think that Metro just, and only just might upset the big boys in the league. 

Leicester Tigers 23 - 29 Crusaders


Good to see Tigers picking a strong side and giving the Saders a real game at home. Saders though do have some real quality and their pack, and really impose their game plan. Whereas the lack of detail in the game plan from Tigers see's them struggle at moments in the game. 
Better control at the half backs from Tigers means they can control the pace of the game. Saders though have some real dangerous ball players and in the open space created  from their pack they can rack some serious points and take them to well earned away win. 

ASM Clermont Auvergne 32 - 30 Toulon


Decent battle here, but ASM have some real grunt in the forwards and this gains them real go forward to get their backs on the front foot. Toulon are a bit cleverer at the breakdown as they have the speed to get there and secure some turnover ball despite their lack of bulk. Clermont using their half backs to essentially load their backs with quick ball means they keep getting over the gainline. Toulon use a bit more guile with their backs, and use their serious gas outwide to some points on the board. Tough one to split but at home ASM take the win.

Metro 30 - 29 Sharks

Set piece - Figallo and JDP the standout props, cant give an edge either way. Lineout equal too, though I think Sharks will have the edge after subs are made there
Breakdown - Louw >>> Coetzee for me, rest of the packs about equal so edge Metro
Carrying - Sharks have Healy, Billy and Alberts starting, big go forward there. Metro not bad but that is some serious power - Sharks edge
Attack - Sexton and Youngs in better form IMO, both backlines will score if given clean ball
Bench - Sharks, immense forward replacements

Overall, I just can't call it, Metro have edge at breakdown and half backs, Sharks have so much power and more to come off the bench. Conditions are good, with home advantage I go for Metro (as I hate picking draws!)

Toulouse 24 - 27 Stormers

Set piece - Edge for Stormers here, Mas will do well against Steenkamp and Youngs/Brits about as good as each other. Lineout to Stormers too,
Breakdown - Equal, SOB's lack of form cancels out Hooper's lack of physicality for me
Carrying - Stormers very strong here, although Picamoles and the front 5 also good
Attack - Slight edge to Stormers at HB, both backlines good but I think Stormers have the standout players, plus tactics
Bench - equal

Good win for Stormers on the road

ASM 24 - 20 Toulon

Set piece - Domingo will give the taller Haymans some problems, and Big Ben has been in good form at TH. Edge ASM. Lineout to Toulon, Bonnaire the standout with other decent jumpers too
Breakdown - Burger vs Tips will be a good battle on the floor, but Toulon lack a bit oh physicality for me. Very close but advantage ASM.
Carrying - ASM
Attack - Toulon's settled partnership wins here at HB. Backlines both good, prefer Toulon centres and ASM back 3. Think attacking Rougerie could have helped here.
Bench - Equal

At home, with the advantage at breakdown and carrying I give this to Clermont

Metro 29 - 29 Sharks
Toulouse 25 - 27 Stormers
Crusaders 25 - 22 Tigers

Sorry for brevity guys

Open till 12 if anyone else wants to get them in (potentially longer unless I find out how to calculate scores!)

Stade Touloussain 19 Stormers 21
Leicester Tigers 20 Crusaders 25
ASM Clermont Auvergne 24 RC Toulonnais 21


I can to the results if you want me to Bam?

Yes please!

Predos closed

Bonuses

Full - Bam, Fluxy
Scores - Prop, CJ, Ozzy
None - Bathite, CF, Driver

So going onto the final round, Sharks guaranteed top spot and a home semi final, with ASM and Crusaders both still fighting for home advantage in the play offs. And it's Metro or Stormers for the final play off spot, with them facing of against each other in a shoot out!

Would be good if everyone predicts this round, make it a real fair reflection of opinion in that game in particular.

Yeah that would be good, think week 17 needs to have as many predos as possible

Still can't get that bloody try bonus point, no one rate my backline or something!

Tough to get one this week as 3 people didn't predict. Also tough getting them away from home.

Sorry lads, was definitely meant to, but had to take an urgent work trip  to Dublin