Will Murray make the WTF?

With approaching half the season gone Andy currently sits 13th in the race, having played a lot of tournaments. The likelihood is that he will not improve during the clay swing. He is only currently 300 points behind Grigor in 8th but a massive 700 points behind Ferrer. Without starting to win things that gap will not be easy to close (and both are likely to extend on the clay).

On present form, I think it's highly unlikely Andy will make it. To me, he still looks hampered by the back and I wonder if we have seen the last of him as a top 4 player. Do people see him making significant improvements over the latter half of the year?

I do. The first hard court swing came too early for him and clay certainly won't be doing him any favours but come the grass court season, I think we'll see his best. After that, it's hard courts all the way again.

I would be surprised and disappointed if he didn't make it.

A big turn around in form and confidence will be needed. He seems a bit lost at present. So getting a new coach in place quickly is very important. It is worrying that after his win against Almagro he talked about his back stiffening up when it is cooler.

I don't know, but abandoning the creative game in favour of physical defensive play was a big decision, one which may have had its consequences.

bogbrush wrote:I don't know, but abandoning the creative game in favour of physical defensive play was a big decision, one which may have had its consequences.

That seems an odd assessment of what happened. I agree with you that sadly he seemingly made a decision with Lendl to be a bit more of a standard player. However, he also became more aggressive. The matches versus Roger at the Olympics and Australian Open were good examples of him playing aggressive tennis albeit without some of the genius of the younger counterpunching version. In addition, running around a lot is not generally seen as a reason for developing a bad back.

Hopefully, he will come back stronger. With the big 4 all struggling a bit this year, the standard of tennis has dipped at the tail end of the big tournaments. It would be nice to see the 2nd tier step up to big 4 level (as Stan appears to have done) rather than them being surplanted due to injuries etc.

I actually just came on here to write a similar article having been surprised that the ATP continue to use images of Murray in their WTF promotion on their site.

I voted yes, but if he doesn't gain about 500 points from Rome and the French Open, I'd change my vote to no. Nadal, Djokovic, Wawrinka & Federer already look almost certain to make it so that leaves 4 places for the rest of the "old guard" i.e. Ferrer & Berdych and the new guard who seem to have made big improvements and have the hunger e.g. Dimitrov, Nishikori. Murray's in real danger of trailing too far behind.

I'm not sure what to make of Murray right now. Is this dip just a temporary thing (e.g. he's lost his mojo after the split from Lendl) or is this the new normal. It doesn't seem that dis-similar to other dips after AO losses in 2010 & 2011 which he bounced back from, but maybe he's too old to do that now.

I didn't see any of his match v. Giraldo but most accounts seem to be that he wasn't taking it very seriously. Frustrating, as even on clay, that draw was as good a route to a SF as could be expected. Not playing MC also seemed an odd move unless the back is causing a lot more problems than he is letting on.

I don't know about not taking it seriously, but it was certainly a woeful performance without any of the frustration usually associated with that.

I guess the players don't pour over rankings tables, but Andy must know how precarious his ranking is and that any chance to gain points against lower ranked players has to be taken seriously - you'd think!

I'm not convinced that he's going to make it. To make up ground on those above him, he needs to be going deep in tournaments - QF isn't really good enough. Can he really beat any of the top 4 right now, even on hard court? Clay is a non-starter, all four of them will eviscerate him on the surface, and plenty below will beat him too.

He still isn't quite back to his best. I'm not sure it's in his DNA to not take a match seriously, he was probably just beaten by a player in good nick (Giraldo having just made the Barcelona final, I believe). Wimbledon will be a huge tipping point for him...if he doesn't defend most of his points, he'll be in a real scrap for the WTF.

As some of us mentioned in January. Wimbledon onwards will be the time to judge him

The only criticism I have of him, is that he now only seems to be bothered about the Slams - but that also means he's highly likely to fight through to the quarters at RG and that's good points

I actually do not see Rafa been in good enough form, Nole in good enough fitness or Roger in a good enough state of mind to mean that Andy is an outsider for Wimbledon

I still think he could win Wimby

Looking at it, I'd say more likely than not, he'll make it. Slots are filling quick though. About 3500-4000 traditionally does the trick, so you'd think the top four are a lock. Berdych is on about 2500 for the season, but you'd back him to find 1, 500 points with four hardcourt masters and a Slam to go (notwithstanding his previous best of a final appearance at SW19). So that's five spots, only three left. You'd think a lot a lot hinges on his Wimbledon performance, but at the same time, even if he doesn't do well there, I'd still back to go on a decent enough run at some point to make it.

banbrotam wrote:As some of us mentioned in January. Wimbledon onwards will be the time to judge him

The only criticism I have of him, is that he now only seems to be bothered about the Slams - but that also means he's highly likely to fight through to the quarters at RG and that's good points

I actually do not see Rafa been in good enough form, Nole in good enough fitness or Roger in a good enough state of mind to mean that Andy is an outsider for Wimbledon

I still think he could win Wimby

Its possible. I think anywhere near last year's level will be enough to defend it but he has been a long way short of that so far. I thought he played very well at the Oz Open (all things considered) but he hasn't yet managed to push on or even maintain that level.

I've yet to see Murray crush an opponent (6-1 6-0) and he does seem like he's only gonna care about Wimbledon/USO again. 2010/2011 he was good on clay, not a world beater but he almost beat Djokovic in Rome take a set off Nadal in MC. If he makes top 8 he will take one of the last 2 spots.

Every so often he looks better than ever for just a set - but worryingly cannot push on

I don't think it's the back, more ring rustiness - his comeback has been very truncated and it makes me wonder if it was sensible

But I honestly think (and this is wrong of him) his target was always a good show at RG (quarters) and then the real events start

Time to start worrying is if he has not gained many points from RG and Wimbledon. He also normally does well at the end of the season - a period he missed last year.
The way the points are set up Andy will also be helped if Rafa, Rog and Stan soak up the big points to prevent the guys beneath them and below Andy getting them.
We've only had one of the Slams so far this year and there are some serious points to be gained.

sirfredperry wrote:Time to start worrying is if he has not gained many points from RG and Wimbledon. He also normally does well at the end of the season - a period he missed last year.
  The way the points are set up Andy will also be helped if Rafa, Rog and Stan soak up the big points to prevent the guys beneath them and below Andy getting them.
  We've only had one of the Slams so far this year and there are some serious points to be gained.  

I'd agree with that. But speaking from my own point of view would it be the mother of all disasters if he never qualified if it meant he returns to top form by the end of the season and say, won the US Open? Give me another slam win over an appearance at the WTF any day. Obviously, would be great to do both though.

CC - If he wins a Slam he will AUTOMATICALLY qualify unless he is not in the top 20 come the season end (very unlikely if he gets 2,000 for a Slam win).
Remember how we were all worried that Fed might not make the O2 last year. But he managed it without getting more than 600 points at any tournament after his 2013 AO semi appearance. Either a big tournament triumph or some consistent scoring over a number of tournaments usually does it for a player.

Yes that is true sirfredperry. Basically though, I first and foremost just want to see him back in a semblance of top form and if that comes about in time for Wimbledon then I have no doubt he will make the WTF. However, if this lethargic run continues then there will be no WTF and nobody can say he will be missed if his form remains the same.

Come on, he will do a SF/F/Win in W, then same or wins on Hard courts, then USO, etc etc.

Sure he will be at WTF, thought maybe 7-8th, which is fine. Fed barely made it last year.

Hes got a lot of ground to make points at the end of the year, soo even if his form isnt great for the grass and he loses ranking points, hes still got quite a few points to make it up. Rankings an irrelevance at the mo, his indifferent form and his apparently still troubling back are what need sorting, the ranking will sort itself out after that

Josiah Maiestas wrote:I've yet to see Murray crush an opponent (6-1 6-0) and he does seem like he's only gonna care about Wimbledon/USO again. 2010/2011 he was good on clay, not a world beater but he almost beat Djokovic in Rome take a set off Nadal in MC. If he makes top 8 he will take one of the last 2 spots.

He did double bagel someone in Qatar or something.

At this point I would have to assume that the answer is positive.  The HC season early in the year was too early to judge Murray and he has never been that great on clay anyway, so he does not have to b this year either.

I do think he has played a bit worse than I would have expected, but nothing to go into panic mode about.  The summer will be critical to judge where he is - he needs to start collecting some solid results in the Wimbledon to USO stretch.  If he does - and so far there is no strong evidence that he will not - he will be fine.

YvonneT wrote:I voted yes, but if he doesn't gain about 500 points from Rome and the French Open, I'd change my vote to no.

Hmm, well he's in danger here of only getting 90 points for the French, and even if he gets past Kohlschreiber I don't see him getting much further. So I think 500 points from Rome and the French is beyond him. He's helped a little Nishikori, Fognini, Dimitrov going out early, but I'm really not sure he'll make it now. I suppose if he doesn't, he can have a break at the end of the season and then a proper off-season training. I think the rehab curtailed what he could do last off-season as he really doesn't seem at his usual fitness level.

YvonneT wrote:

YvonneT wrote:I voted yes, but if he doesn't gain about 500 points from Rome and the French Open, I'd change my vote to no.

Hmm, well he's in danger here of only getting 90 points for the French, and even if he gets past Kohlschreiber I don't see him getting much further. So I think 500 points from Rome and the French is beyond him. He's helped a little Nishikori, Fognini, Dimitrov going out early, but I'm really not sure he'll make it now. I suppose if he doesn't, he can have a break at the end of the season and then a proper off-season training. I think the rehab curtailed what he could do last off-season as he really doesn't seem at his usual fitness level.

I don't really see which eight players are going to get more points than Murray. We can forget about Del Potro and provided Andy makes the quarters of Wimby and US open, it would make it very hard for others to pass him to get, say, 8th

He is currently 10th in the race - 300 points adrift of Gulbis in 8th and 600 points behind Kei in 7th. He is going to need more than QFs to get top 8. That said he has looked far better in the last couple of events. If he can stay fit I think he will produce better results and make it.

He should now be seeded 3 at Wimbledon barring someone like Berdych winning the French so that should help.

He can't fail, I'm bemused by the question. There dimply isn't the talent in the game right now to displace someone of his ability from the top 8. God, even Federer at the stage of his career he is will make it comfortably.

You have only to look at the effort of Tsonga yesterday to see the pitiful state of competition right now; same guys as always doing the same things.

Born Slippy wrote:He is currently 10th in the race - 300 points adrift of Gulbis in 8th and 600 points behind Kei in 7th. He is going to need more than QFs to get top 8. That said he has looked far better in the last couple of events. If he can stay fit I think he will produce better results and make it.

He should now be seeded 3 at Wimbledon barring someone like Berdych winning the French so that should help.

If you believe that Kei, Gulbis etc will match him in the two remaining slams, then you have a point

I don't. I expect them to make no better than the last 16 / quarters - but I expect Murray to do what he's done for his last 12 slams and continue to get to the quarters - which I still think would be enough as I'd also back him to get further than them in all the remaining Masters (on average)

We forget that he wasn't fully match fit on his favorite surface and is only just reaching peak fitness on his worst

I also think he decides to peak for this 5 month spell

Anyone seeing him against Koli, will note that his determination seems to be back - some inconsistencies in play remain, but it is his least favourite surface

bogbrush wrote:He can't fail, I'm bemused by the question. There dimply isn't the talent in the game right now to displace someone of his ability from the top 8. God, even Federer at the stage of his career he is will make it comfortably.

You have only to look at the effort of Tsonga yesterday to see the pitiful state of competition right now; same guys as always doing the same things.

He has obviously closed up with his win today but the guys directly ahead of him are Gulbis, Dimi and Kei with Wawrinka a mere speck in the distance. So we have three all-time greats, two top 10 stalwarts, one player who has just made a career breakthrough and three newcomers (plus Raonic currently just below Andy in the race). Competition is strong and it really isn't same old same old. Tsonga, being totally out of form, is nowhere near the top 8.

Generally agree Banbro. I still think though that QF only would be touch and go (bearing in mind that if Ernie wins tomorrow he would need to make up 600 points). However, his form here strongly suggests that the form is returning and better results than QFs should follow.

Well, as of now, the in running position for the race is:
1 Rafael Nadal 6650
2 Novak Djokovic 5970
3 Stan Wawrinka 4095
4 Roger Federer 4080
5 Tomas Berdych 3050
6 Grigor Dimitrov 2785
7 Andy Murray 2435
8 Kei Nishikori 2405
9 David Ferrer 2385
10 Ernests Gulbis 2265
11 Milos Raonic 2205
12 Marin Cilic 1730
13 Fabio Fognini 1500
14 Alexandr Dolgopolov 1410
15 Jo Wilfried Tsonga 1365

A win the semi final would put Raonic up to 7th, so Murray to 8th.

I'm still inclined to think that he'll make it, but it's precarious. And he'll have to do from outside the top 8 seedings, which without a top 10 win a year is a bit worrying. These other younger players are playing more tournaments too, so a tough decision on scheduling is required - longer training block or some ATP 500's and 250's.

I also think Wimbledon has answered bogbrush's point about who there is that could displace him. Raonic, Dimitrov both stepping up. Nishikori too although he tends to be a bit more fragile.

I think Cilic could make a run too...

I think Cilic was actually sitting in the top 8 in the race earlier in the season, but slipped well back. Not sure he has the consistency. But the gaps aren't that big so good results in just a few tournaments could do it, I suppose.

I think there's 11 players that can make it - the top 12 minus Ferrer (beginning of the end for him I feel). Early exits for Murray in Toronto and Cinci could make it hairy. Raonic arguably has two events coming up that should suit him - Cinci and Shanghai. Berdy will make it again despite doing..... what?

He should make it from here but some top 10 wins are going to be needed. Early exits in the two Masters events like last year will put him in real trouble.

Djokovic with: Major results of SF, F and win is through to the WTFs

Nadal with: Major results of F, Win and 4th round, not yet. So surely he isn't very far away from that now...

Murray: think he will make it as this part of the year is good for him.

OT, but it would be great if Gulbis made it this year.

yloponom68 wrote:Djokovic with: Major results of SF, F and win is through to the WTFs

Nadal with: Major results of F, Win and 4th round, not yet. So surely he isn't very far away from that now...

Murray: think he will make it as this part of the year is good for him.

Nadal as usual was the first to qualify way back on the 10th of June

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2013/06/24/London-Finale-2013-Nadal-Bryans-Qualify.aspx

I can perhaps understand your confusion because after the ATP made this announcement about Nadal being the first to qualify it must have slipped their mind... They made another announcement just after Wimbledon that Djokovic was the first to qualify.

I wonder who will be the next player to qualify first  

hawkeye wrote:

yloponom68 wrote:Djokovic with: Major results of SF, F and win is through to the WTFs

Nadal with: Major results of F, Win and 4th round, not yet. So surely he isn't very far away from that now...

Murray: think he will make it as this part of the year is good for him.

Nadal as usual was the first to qualify way back on the 10th of June

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2013/06/24/London-Finale-2013-Nadal-Bryans-Qualify.aspx

I can perhaps understand your confusion because after the ATP made this announcement about Nadal being the first to qualify it must have slipped their mind... They made another announcement just after Wimbledon that Djokovic was the first to qualify.

I wonder who will be the next player to qualify first  

Nice of you to dig up last year's WTF article. This is 2014.

Sorry wrong article to prove my point... but the truth is the ATP messed up and Nadal has already qualified   Ben Rothenburg (a writer for the New York Times questioned the ATP over the announcement that Djokovic was the first to qualify and eventually got them to admit that Nadal  had)

Strange that ATP is saying Djokovic is the first to mathematically qualify for the London World Tour Finals when Nadal qualified weeks ago…

ATP just confirmed with me that Rafael Nadal has indeed already mathematically qualified for London WTFs. Announcement will be made Monday.

https://twitter.com/BenRothenberg

 

hawkeye wrote:Strange that ATP is saying Djokovic is the first to mathematically qualify for the London World Tour Finals when Nadal qualified weeks ago…

He hadn't qualified weeks ago.

Coming into Wimbledon, Rafa was 4,245pts ahead of Gulbis, who in 8th in the race.

With 6000 points still available from Slams and Masters alone at that point, he wasn't mathematically qualified yet.

What's strange to me is that Nadal has played three more tournaments than Djokovic but still trails him by 600 points.

8000 points I think (2 slams and 4 masters). I haven't done the maths but he must have been very close to qualification. Not just Gulbis but 7 other players would have had to accumulate substantial points to catch him.

Born Slippy wrote:8000 points I think (2 slams and 4 masters). I haven't done the maths but he must have been very close to qualification. Not just Gulbis but 7 other players would have had to accumulate substantial points to catch him.

Yes, you're quite right. I completely forgot about Canada and Cincy!

In fairness to HE, Rafa had sort of qualified weeks ago.

The current 'cut' (which will drop as the season progresses) is 5,790 pts.

Rafa had in excess of that total following RG but, at that point, it wasn't mathematically enough to be certain.

 Admit it HM you don't know how to work out the cut off but just assumed the ATP was correct when they announced Djokovic was the first to qualify. Fair enough because the ATP are confused themselves. This is the live race points as of the 25th of June. Nadal was shown as qualifying before that date but this is the earliest date that I've found and I have better things to do than look further. The point is that it shows Nadal qualifying first.

http://postimg.org/image/4cg7nqci3/

If you look at the comments on the ATP site following their sudden decision to make this announcement they have been found out.  

Does it matter? Not really. But funny they felt the need to make a hoo ha about Djokovic qualifying. Poor Djokovic. Maybe they realize he needs all the publicity he can get.

No, I said Nadal hadn't qualified weeks ago. Following Roland Garros, the ATP said Rafa was close to qualifying. He officially qualified in Wimbledon. I don't care an awful lot about who qualified first.

I doubt the ATP feel the need to boost Djokovic. Winning Wimbledon and getting to number 1 tend to generate plenty of headlines.

It could perhaps be to protect Rafa. It was only a month ago that many were declaring him the best ever. All of a sudden, he's beaten by a teenager and back at #2. It's a bit awkward, really.

^ So you reckon the ATP wanted to "protect Rafa" by keeping quiet when he as usual was the first to gain enough points to qualify? Why not do the same for Novak? You reckon the ATP didn't think Rafa was worthy enough to make a hoo ha about him qualifying because you never know he might not win every match until the end of the year. So they just waited for someone they thought was more worthy and said they qualified first instead   

Maybe the ATP should do the same with the number one ranking. Can't have just anyone with enough points being announced as number one. It would be a bit awkward and really it doesn't matter  

Personally, Rafa would much sooner of won Wimbledon than be able to say right now that he has qualified for the WTF. He will worry more about what goes wrong so often at this slam than an end of the year tournament not at slam level - and the same applies to Murray just now to a far lesser degree.

They just basically got it wrong.

Will Murray qualify? Well a poor US HC season won't help. If he goes deep in all events as he should then he'll have no problem.