Will Murray make the WTF?

First topic message reminder :

With approaching half the season gone Andy currently sits 13th in the race, having played a lot of tournaments. The likelihood is that he will not improve during the clay swing. He is only currently 300 points behind Grigor in 8th but a massive 700 points behind Ferrer. Without starting to win things that gap will not be easy to close (and both are likely to extend on the clay).

On present form, I think it's highly unlikely Andy will make it. To me, he still looks hampered by the back and I wonder if we have seen the last of him as a top 4 player. Do people see him making significant improvements over the latter half of the year?

Maybe that non-official image was wrong? Looks like it was a fan-based picture/calculation. Seems the most logical conclusion. Novak and Rafa both qualified at the end of Wimby, but Djoko got the headlines as the winner and new No. 1.

hawkeye wrote:^ So you reckon the ATP wanted to "protect Rafa" by keeping quiet when he as usual was the first to gain enough points to qualify? Why not do the same for Novak? You reckon the ATP didn't think Rafa was worthy enough to make a hoo ha about him qualifying because you never know he might not win every match until the end of the year. So they just waited for someone they thought was more worthy and said they qualified first instead   

It could be that I think that.

Another option is that I was trying to wind you up.

This whole "qualifying first" furore reminds of the way Rafa's H2H record is always being brought up. It's the same desperation to take a statistic that nobody has ever cared about before and use it to tell everyone how great Rafa is.

It's quite telling, HE, that we don't hear a peep from you for the whole of Wimbledon but the subjects that inspire you to comment are how Kyrgios getting attention shows it is tough for Nadal, and the injustice that the ATP didn't make an announcement about Nadal.

Where is KBN??

I want to hear what titles Nadal is earmarked for now he is in his HC prime

HM Murdoch wrote:

Another option is that I was trying to wind you up.

This whole "qualifying first" furore reminds of the way Rafa's H2H record is always being brought up. It's the same desperation to take a statistic that nobody has ever cared about before and use it to tell everyone how great Rafa is.

It's quite telling, HE, that we don't hear a peep from you for the whole of Wimbledon but the subjects that inspire you to comment are how Kyrgios getting attention shows it is tough for Nadal, and the injustice that the ATP didn't make an announcement about Nadal.

lol HM. Good try. But you never heard a peep from me after RG about Nadal qualifying first for the WTF because like you say it is a statistic that no one has ever really cared for. You only heard a "peep" from me when another poster perhaps believing the ATP thought that Djokovic was the first to qualify and that Nadal still hadn't booked his place. My point was that the ATP had seen fit to make a hoo ha about Djokovic being the first to qualify when he wasn't. Not only had they seen fit for some reason to make a hoo ha about the first player to qualify but they had got the wrong player  

legendkillarV2 wrote:Where is KBN??

I want to hear what titles Nadal is earmarked for now he is in his HC prime

Shouldn't you be worrying more about the title of this thread  

hawkeye wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:Where is KBN??

I want to hear what titles Nadal is earmarked for now he is in his HC prime

Shouldn't you be worrying more about the title of this thread  

I have given up on that one I think the season is a write off and really if he is sturggling physically, then I for one welcome the post season early so he can regain his full fitness and health.

hawkeye wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:

Another option is that I was trying to wind you up.

This whole "qualifying first" furore reminds of the way Rafa's H2H record is always being brought up. It's the same desperation to take a statistic that nobody has ever cared about before and use it to tell everyone how great Rafa is.

It's quite telling, HE, that we don't hear a peep from you for the whole of Wimbledon but the subjects that inspire you to comment are how Kyrgios getting attention shows it is tough for Nadal, and the injustice that the ATP didn't make an announcement about Nadal.

lol HM. Good try. But you never heard a peep from me after RG about Nadal qualifying first for the WTF because like you say it is a statistic that no one has ever really cared for. You only heard a "peep" from me when another poster perhaps believing the ATP thought that Djokovic was the first to qualify and that Nadal still hadn't booked his place. My point was that the ATP had seen fit to make a hoo ha about Djokovic being the first to qualify when he wasn't. Not only had they seen fit for some reason to make a hoo ha about the first player to qualify but they had got the wrong player  

The only evidence we've seen is that unofficial image from an anonymous page. Not saying it's completely wrong, but there's no actual proof that Rafa qualified ahead of Djoko, just some guy's own mathematical calculation, that may or may not be wrong.

hawkeye wrote: the ATP had seen fit to make a hoo ha about Djokovic being the first to qualify

By "make a hoo ha", you mean put an announcement on the website, the same as they do for every player when they qualify.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2014/07/28/London-Finale-Djokovic-First-To-Qualify.aspx
http://www.atpworldtour.com/news/tennis/2013/10/43/london-finale-2013-berdych-qualifies.aspx
http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2013/10/41/London-Finale-2013-Ferrer-Qualifies.aspx
http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2013/10/41/London-Finale-2013-Del-Potro-Qualifies.aspx

Only you could see a conspiracy in this.

What conspiracy? There is nothing wrong with making an announcement but the ATP got it wrong. If they want to announce who has qualified first most would agree they should know who that player is. Not everyone though. Some appear to think we should all pretend the ATP can add up  

But what proof is there that Rafa had already qualified HE? A picture off a web-site that might have been totally wrong in any case?
What makes that picture so trustworthy?

hawkeye wrote:What conspiracy?

This one:

hawkeye wrote:But funny they felt the need to make a hoo ha about Djokovic qualifying. Poor Djokovic. Maybe they realize he needs all the publicity he can get..

hawkeye wrote:There is nothing wrong with making an announcement

Then why have you described it as funny that they felt the need to make a "hoo ha"?

JuliusHMarx wrote:But what proof is there that Rafa had already qualified HE? A picture off a web-site that might have been totally wrong in any case?
What makes that picture so trustworthy?

That's the third time you've raised that point, JHM. I wonder if HE will deign you worthy of a response this time?

Anyway, my vote is now "no", with Nadals physical ailments, Djokovic's new life really, and Murray's back/form problems... I now predict Federer is going to outlast them all, and win a slam aged 40, or something

"The 27-year-old Djokovic, who will be making his eighth straight appearance at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, has become the first singles player to qualify for the prestigious season finale. He first won the title in 2008 (d. Davydenko), when the tournament was held in Shanghai, and claimed back-to-back crowns at The O2 in 2012 (d. Federer) and 2013 (d. Nadal). "

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2014/07/28/London-Finale-Djokovic-First-To-Qualify.aspx

Coming back to this, going into the QFs at Cincinnati, the position is:
1  Novak Djokovic 7430  
2  Rafael Nadal 6650  
3  Roger Federer 5340 (SF 5520, F 5760, W 6160)
4  Stan Wawrinka 4365  
5  Grigor Dimitrov 3155  
6  Tomas Berdych 3150
7  Milos Raonic 3065 (SF 3245, F 3485, W 3885)
8  David Ferrer 3025 (SF 3205, F 3445, W 3845)
9  Andy Murray 2795 (SF 2975, F 3215, W 3615)
10  Kei Nishikori 2475

Both Ferrer and Raonic look good for making the semis at the very least and opening up a pretty good lead on Murray (especially considering the draw advantage their ranking gives them too). Ferrer in particular has a good shot at the final here. Personally, I feel that if Murray does make it, it will be Ferrer that drops as Raonic & Dimitrov are a stage where they'll be very hungry for their WTF debut and willing to play extra in the autumn to get there (and both should be strong in the indoor swing). So it feels important to Murray to win tonight and keep close. That said, although Federer has had a busy fortnight, he must fancy his chances of winning the title here, guaranteeing his place and closing in on Nadal. Interesting!

Berdych starting to slip in fairness. Very much doubt Ferrer will miss out - he is too solid. Top 4 are in for me. If Murray does make it I suspect it will be either Berdy or Dimi who miss out.

Not so sure about Ferrer, he does sometime put together some pretty poor runs, but yeah, Berdych was looking good for qualifying early on (around Miami) but has really slowed up since then.

Very good and tough question, it will boil between "Berdych, Dimitrov, Murray and Tsonga".

2 slots for grab among 4 main contenders, Tsonga suddenly came into contention with impressive Rogers masters win, but outside that Berdych is in as bad a a form as Murray is and hence Murray's main competition will come from Tsonga and Dimitrov.

I better have Murray and Tsonga than Dimitrov and Berdych.

JuliusHMarx wrote:But what proof is there that Rafa had already qualified HE? A picture off a web-site that might have been totally wrong in any case?
What makes that picture so trustworthy?

Rafa is technically qualified, he can't finish outside top 9 from here on, if he finish on 9 he still makes it at the expense of 8th player coz he won a slam.

After that loss, 360 points adrift of Berdych in 8th and Dimitrov in 7th place. Doesn't look like happening to me now - not without a really good US Open. Barely been beyond a quarter final this year and needs to somehow reach the semis.

Federer has a great chance to really close that gap to Nadal. Who'da thunk that this time last year.

kingraf wrote:Anyway, my vote is now "no", with Nadals physical ailments, Djokovic's new life really, and Murray's back/form problems... I now predict Federer is going to outlast them all, and win a slam aged 40, or something

  

Is that a frustration? or sense of humor? whatever made me laugh thou.

YvonneT wrote:
Federer has a great chance to really close that gap to Nadal. Who'da thunk that this time last year.

Not even Mirka  

DirectView2 wrote:

YvonneT wrote:
Federer has a great chance to really close that gap to Nadal. Who'da thunk that this time last year.

Not even Mirka  

I don't know... I think both Federer and Mirka have been around long enough to know that there is always a chance that Nadal will give up opportunities for him to close that gap. 2009 and 2012 spring to mind. It's even possible that Federer could get that top position back if Nadal is forced to miss more of 2014 and Djokovic continues in poor form. But first Federer needs to find a way to get his hands on trophies again. He has messed up a number of great opportunities recently.

Sense of humour, DV. I genuinely like Federer... And I genuinely believe he'll outlast Nadal and co.

KR, that is my secret tennis dream - to watch Fed playing for the big titles against Dimi and other kids, after Nole, Rafa, Andy and the rest of their generation slipped down the rankings.

According to the live-tennis site, Federer qualified with his win last night, but the ATP don't seem to be announcing that on their site. Maybe they are not terribly good at tracking these things.

summerblues wrote:KR, that is my secret tennis dream - to watch Fed playing for the big titles against Dimi and other kids, after Nole, Rafa, Andy and the rest of their generation slipped down the rankings.  

2022 rankings:

1) Federer
2) Dimitrov
3) Raonic
4) Kyrgios
5) Ferrer

YvonneT wrote:According to the live-tennis site, Federer qualified with his win last night, but the ATP don't seem to be announcing that on their site. Maybe they are not terribly good at tracking these things.

No it's very strange. They didn't announce when Nadal was the first to qualify this year but made a big song and dance after Wimbledon saying that Djokovic was the first to qualify. It was only when an American Journalist pointed out that Rafa had qualified weeks previously that they admitted he had. I talked about it here but some appeared to think that the live-tennis site was a Rafa fan site. lol

Maybe they just track Djokovic  

Doesn't sound like Murray is that bothered.

Q. Race to London. Beijing or Tokyo, are you thinking about tailoring your schedule to make sure you qualify?

ANDY MURRAY: No. To be honest, it was not a massive goal of mine. I mean, it's obviously nice to qualify for it. It's a good tournament. I played a number of years, you know, and enjoyed it. But, yeah, I don't want to overplay. I'll play the right schedule. I'll likely play probably a tournament before Shanghai. I'm not sure exactly which one yet. I mean, I won't expect to overplay just to try to qualify.

Not sure if he is just underplaying the disappointment of where he is in the race or truly not at all keen to qualify. I'm surprised - seems a most sensible goal to provide motivation in this final part of the season.

Damage limitation. Not making the O2 after a full year would be a career blot.

If Fed hadn't made the WTF last year it wouldn't have been a career blot and neither will it be for Murray. Honestly, from reading this site you would forget the guy had back surgery at the end of last year.

Er, he had back surgery in Sept 2013, so it's a full year on now.

The problem is that his physique wasn't natural, it had taken so many years to build it that he's able to lose ground on it so quickly. Nadal was out of the game for 8 months with career threatening knee injury, then came back and won everything out of sight. Because his ability is linked to natural genetics and body shape for him.

Missing WTF...in London where he lives BTW...would be a big blow for him. It's the 8 best players in the world so would be a slap in his face really..,but if he hasn't earnt the points then it is what it is. He's still only beat 1 top 10 guy in 15 months. It's not a disaster yet but his lack of stamina is a huge issue right now. After 2 hours he's cooked at the moment.

It's all swings and roundabouts on the time off though. Maybe Murray would actually have benefited from more time off and Nadal might have struggled more if he'd returned at the start of 2013 as originally planned.

I'd think it would be a blow to him not to be there (though he's qualified and not played twice before). But it does strangely sound like he's no plans to try to get there. I suppose we will soon find out how true that is if he starts accepting wild cards for weaker 250s.

Born Slippy wrote:If Fed hadn't made the WTF last year it wouldn't have been a career blot and neither will it be for Murray. Honestly, from reading this site you would forget the guy had back surgery at the end of last year.

Not doing it at 32, after 17 Slams and 6 WTFs, no probably not.

But that's not Andy's CV.

So you agree that if he hadn't had back problems he wouldn't be struggling to make wtf? Krajicek has said he has done exceptionally well to return as well as he has. As it happens I agree with you that physically he doesn't have the natural gifts of Nadal or Djoko and so has had to work hard to overcome that. Not sure why that is being portrayed as a negative though? Why is it a "career blot" in those circumstances if he doesn't make wtf? With respect, Murray's slow recovery also more closely mirrors what would normally be expected after an injury break than Rafa returning and playing at a level he had never managed before.

That said, if he plays as he has during the US Open he should qualify in any event. With his record in Shanghai (and if Djoker is missing) he will have a great chance to pick up big points.

bogbrush wrote:

Born Slippy wrote:If Fed hadn't made the WTF last year it wouldn't have been a career blot and neither will it be for Murray. Honestly, from reading this site you would forget the guy had back surgery at the end of last year.

Not doing it at 32, after 17 Slams and 6 WTFs, no probably not.

But that's not Andy's CV.

That doesn't address my point at all. Qualifying 6 years in a row, having back surgery after making 4 consecutive slam finals winning two of them. It would require special thinking to regard having a poor year after the back surgery as a career blot. I think the general reaction would be sympathy that a great athlete had been struck down in his prime.

YvonneT wrote:It's all swings and roundabouts on the time off though. Maybe Murray would actually have benefited from more time off and Nadal might have struggled more if he'd returned at the start of 2013 as originally planned.

I'd think it would be a blow to him not to be there (though he's qualified and not played twice before). But it does strangely sound like he's no plans to try to get there. I suppose we will soon find out how true that is if he starts accepting wild cards for weaker 250s.

He clearly isn't going to enter extra events to chase it. I am sure he will do all he can to get there by playing well in the tournaments he does play but it is surely sensible not to overplay. If he doesn't make it c'est la vie. A longer block to strengthen the back and improve the fitness. The Australian I think is when we will know if he will return to his best.

If Kei wins the title we can safely assure Murray will be out of WTF.

Cilic winning is worse for Andy's prospects. Either way it looks a struggle now. Even SFs for the rest of the year are unlikely to be enough. Still, win Shanghai or Paris and he should still make it.

I still think he'll squeak through. A win in Shanghai will put him back up there (I think, it's too late at night/early in the morning for maths) and he's done very well there before. I think he's got 4 tournaments left beforehand - Shanghai & Paris, the Masters, and Japan/Beijing and Basel, 500s. Lots of points left.

An oddity that just caught my eye is that the only slam where Andy made SF this year is RG.

summerblues wrote:An oddity that just caught my eye is that the only slam where Andy made SF this year is RG.

Good catch.

2013:

Fed (6th): SF, QF, 2R, 4R
Stan (7th): 4R, QF, 1R, SF
Gasquet (8th): 4R, 3R, 3R, SF

Murray 2014: QF, SF, QF, 4R.

Similar results to Fed in particular, but admittedly the competition is steeper this year. He can definitely make it, just needs a fairly strong finish

Silver wrote:2013:

Fed (6th): SF, QF, 2R, 4R
Stan (7th): 4R, QF, 1R, SF
Gasquet (8th): 4R, 3R, 3R, SF

Murray 2014: QF, SF, QF, 4R.

Similar results to Fed in particular, but admittedly the competition is steeper this year. He can definitely make it, just needs a fairly strong finish

Fed was very lucky to make the WTF last year, but I don't think Murray will be this year.

Kei or Cilic who ever wins the title will qualify by default, which means we will have

1]Nole
2]Fed
3]Rafa
4]Stan
5]Ferrer
6]Raonic
7]Kei or Cilic
8]Dimitrov
9]Kei or Cilic
10]Tsonga or Murray

Murray is in real trouble to qualify to be honest.

Murray made the QF at the US (should be QF, SF, QF, QF). Good point though - he is actually 100 points or so clear of where Fed was this time last year. Last year though the big 3 swept up most of the main points so it was easier to make it.

It sickens me that Raonic will make it and Murray won't. But as I stated earlier, there's 3000 points up for grabs for Murray. Plenty of time yet.

The Special Juan wrote:It sickens me that Raonic will make it and Murray won't.  But as I stated earlier, there's 3000 points up for grabs for Murray.  Plenty of time yet.

3000 points for Murray to grab, but others can grab 2000 points easily as well so even if Murray makes 2500 points outta 3000 he might still see himself out.

There will be an interesting fight for the top place between Nole and Roger so they both will be eyeing the maximum points as well, which means Murray will find it very difficult to get the complete 3000 points, unless Rafa withdraws I don't see Murray making it.

Btw I don't like Roanic's style of play either, but there is no doubt he has had a stellar season, it was pointed out by one commentator that he was the only player in this year to make more than 6 QF appearance on masters level and I guess he equally did that in GS level too, he has become the modern era David Ferrer.

Murray will make it with about 800 - 1000 points. No way he would get 2,500 points and not make it - if he does that he will be top 4.

Oops, my mistake BS - ta. As you and IC say, it was easier last year when the points were less spread out.

Time will tell, and with IC's list we also have Berdych lurking. It's a strong set of players closely packed together, going to be another nail-biter right up to the O2!

invisiblecoolers wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:It sickens me that Raonic will make it and Murray won't.  But as I stated earlier, there's 3000 points up for grabs for Murray.  Plenty of time yet.

3000 points for Murray to grab, but others can grab 2000 points easily as well so even if Murray makes 2500 points outta 3000 he might still see himself out.

There will be an interesting fight for the top place between Nole and Roger so they both will be eyeing the maximum points as well, which means Murray will find it very difficult to get the complete 3000 points, unless Rafa withdraws I don't see Murray making it.

Btw I don't like Roanic's style of play either, but there is no doubt he has had a stellar season, it was pointed out by one commentator that he was the only player in this year to make more than 6 QF appearance on masters level and I guess he equally did that in GS level too, he has become the modern era David Ferrer.

That's a good point IC, if Fed and Djok are battling for the top spot then titles may be hard to come by. I don't think either of them play Tokyo where Murray goes but the Masters will be duked for, as will Basel. What can I say, I'm just an optimist!! Paris could be one of the biggest tournaments this year.

The Special Juan wrote:

invisiblecoolers wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:It sickens me that Raonic will make it and Murray won't.  But as I stated earlier, there's 3000 points up for grabs for Murray.  Plenty of time yet.

3000 points for Murray to grab, but others can grab 2000 points easily as well so even if Murray makes 2500 points outta 3000 he might still see himself out.

There will be an interesting fight for the top place between Nole and Roger so they both will be eyeing the maximum points as well, which means Murray will find it very difficult to get the complete 3000 points, unless Rafa withdraws I don't see Murray making it.

Btw I don't like Roanic's style of play either, but there is no doubt he has had a stellar season, it was pointed out by one commentator that he was the only player in this year to make more than 6 QF appearance on masters level and I guess he equally did that in GS level too, he has become the modern era David Ferrer.

That's a good point IC, if Fed and Djok are battling for the top spot then titles may be hard to come by.  I don't think either of them play Tokyo where Murray goes but the Masters will be duked for, as will Basel.  What can I say, I'm just an optimist!!  Paris could be one of the biggest tournaments this year.

Actually I feel its something good for Murray if he doesn't qualify for WTF, he can then use his time to plan 2015 better, also if will signal a big alarm that he has to step up and be a player of late 2012 and mid 2013 if not he won't make it, he needs a strong message to realize his full potential.

On the other hand if he plays stellar and qualifies that mean he has already taken it very seriously which again is a good sign, so whatever Murray should only qualify by his quality of merit and I hope he doesn't qualify based on somebodies withdrawal.