Would the British and Irish Lions have beaten Australia in 2014?

We don't know, we can't know, and we will never know.

Still...

There are various ways of approaching this question, but I suppose the main ones are:

- To consider the same Lions squad against the same Australian squad one year on (with some vague allowance for retirements). I think you'd have to give Australia the current coaching team, even though Link selected different players when he was appointed.

- To consider a brand new Lions squad, still coached by Gatland et al, against the Wallaby team which faced France.

- To consider the original Lions squad against the current Wallaby team.

The first way asks you to think about how form has changed over twelve months, and maybe how much difference Ewen McKenzie would have made to that squad compared with Deans. I think the Lions still take this, because many of the brighter moments for Australia since the Lions tour came from new selections.

The second is a much broader question because it asks you to imagine a new Lions squad. For me, it's also a harder question, because it depends when you make the selection. Wales had a poor Six Nations but ran South Africa close, in what was arguably a better performance than England managed against New Zealand. Nevertheless, since most people will think their own Lions selections are a work of genius, I'd imagine most in the North would see Australia on the wrong side again.

Against that rosy view, you could argue that Gatland would have been obliged to choose more English players and many seemed past their sell by date for this season against the All Blacks.

The third is easier to understand as a question but harder to envisage, because none of the Lions were in action against Australia this summer. The closest we have is the end of year tour when Australia proved a much tougher proposition, but many of the Lions were out injured for their respective teams.

I'm tempted to give this to Australia, but France weren't the sternest test in June and the Wallabies may yet be shown up in the Rugby Championship. You'd also have to decide how to treat injuries in this thought experiment. If we assume the original Lions squad are all fit, then Corbisiero, for instance, no longer come into the calculation. If you just think about that same squad, and who was actually available this summer, then you lose people like Halfpenny, BOD, Tom Youngs, Warburton, Croft, Cole, Mako Vunipola and Tipuric. That's enough names that you start getting close to considering a whole new squad, which pushes you in the direction of the second option.

If anybody cares to address the question of whether a Lions team (however selected) would beat South Africa or New Zealand this year, be my guest.

If Gatland was coach we probably would have. We got the win but I think Gatland got it wrong in many ways. He was too negative. Thats just my view.

I think there was an opportunity to absolutly blow the Aussies away right from the start.

Too early to tell firstly as the international season has just begun for us in the SH.

You have to consider form players for the Lions this year vs last year as 12 months can make a difference.

Have the Wallabies improved? and if so by how much?

Well how long is a piece of string? Depends what you use it for.

You can't compare something if it is ever changing, and definitely not when comparing different opposition.

I think two things are true, Wallabies have improved, since the RC of last year they have won most of their matches, importantly they learnt how to win the close ones, which they lost prior to that.

The other fact that is true, they have built a little more depth when you consider certain positions was a real problem last year.

This is an impossible task but...

1) 2014 saw Ireland win a Grand Slam and England a close second. The big question is how would selections have changed? I think instead of Halfpenny we would have had Brown. Instead of North, we might have had... hmm that's a difficult one. We would probably have Tuilagi instead of Davies so who would best partner him? North and Halfpenny were the two standout players in the Lions backline for me along with Sexton. Take two of those options out and we could see the likes of Brown and North didn't have the same impact in June this year. Put that up against the likes of Folau, who is even more of a threat in 2014 than 2013 and I think that spells trouble.

2) 2013 November tour was a successful one for Australia. You could see the level of confidence they had in 2014. They wouldn't have JOC at 10 and that could only be a good thing.

3) How much of the fatigue of players like Brown and Twelvetrees was down to club rugby and to the Lions tour the previous year? Take out the 2013 tour and maybe players would be fresher for 2014 and so we might well have got better things out of the players mentioned in my first point.

The butterfly effect and time travel movies in general show that speculation on things that might have happened are always impossible to logically work through. That said, my impression is that the Lions in 2014 would've encountered much sterner opposition than they actually did in 2013. That's about as close to certainty as it can get for me.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:3) How much of the fatigue of players like Brown and Twelvetrees was down to club rugby and to the Lions tour the previous year?

Actually, both players were with England in Argentina. although Twelvetrees got a brief cameo with the Lions.

Do most of us think Australia would be a harder proposition, whichever scenario you choose?

I think the Lions could also be a harder proposition. Although I didn't care for Gatland's tactics last year, and don't want him back, I do think he would be a more effective Lions coach this year, assuming he had the experience of 2013.

What prompted me to ask this question is that the Lions selection I would have made in May 2014, to play a series in June, is different from the one I'd make in now, in retrospect.

Yes, sorry should've put Halfpenny and Davies.

When you're combining four teams, there's always going to be a great deal of change in what selections you can make. It's very difficult to achieve what Wales did in terms of back-to-back 6N wins so they were always going to dominate selections. 2014 would've seen a much more even spread between England and Ireland and Wales would've lost out in 2014. Which then begs the question how would've Gatland responded to using players who were unfamiliar with his Warrenball approach? I think he'd have had a hard time making Warburton his captain and Robshaw might have made it and that completely changes your team dynamic.

There unfortuantely was no grand slam Kia. However, for me a slam is nice but doesnt matter. Winning the 6 nations is enough.

Jaysus wept. All this alcohol is taking its toll! Of course you lost to England. Where's Scratch to put me straight?     

Winning the 6N is definitely enough. Kudos to those teams, however, who manage to win the Slam. I would say that of course as NZ has won two RC Grand Slams consecutively so far.   

How's the level of comprehension in Argentinian Spanish? Is that the intercambio from a while back?

Dios mio Kia its completely different. I spent a week in Tenerife recently and was able to talk to anyone in Spanish without issue, I even spoke in court without any comprehension issues. However, I continue to struggle to understand this Argentinian girl. They use different conjugations of all verbs for the second person singular and plural and use quite different words to describe things. I had the same issue when speaking to colombian family in the past. Simple words like car:

Spain: coche
Colombia: carro
Argentina: auto

There isnt enough room in my head for all of this.

Well you're doing well if you can understand a Canary accent! There's a big influence of English on South American English but combine that with an archaic lean towards an earlier Castillian Spanish and it's a recipe for a disaster.

If you take a bus in Mexico, you have to use the verb tomar which the Spanish use for having a drink. If you use coger, you are having horizontal relations with the bus and your private end will no doubt be blackened by the exhaust pipe. Still, would bring new meaning to the word the bus came early for a change...

GunsGerms wrote:... I even spoke in court without any comprehension issues...

Sorry mate, I didn't want you to feel you had to be legally deposed to make a contribution to this topic...  

Yeah I was warned about the Mexican use of coger by American friends early on so managed to bypass that particular speed bump.

I think it could break the ice if you offered to 'take' her jacket.

I remember my first week in Madrid and thought I was saying I'm leaving to a girl but actually said to her I'm horny. You always learn from your mistakes but you always learn more from your triumphs!

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I think it could break the ice if you offered to 'take' her jacket.

I remember my first week in Madrid and thought I was saying I'm leaving to a girl but actually said to her I'm horny. You always learn from your mistakes but you always learn more from your triumphs!

Ha ha. Nice story.

With the right selection and tactics, yes

Don't know, don't care but know they did and I was there

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Well you're doing well if you can understand a Canary accent! There's a big influence of English on South American English but combine that with an archaic lean towards an earlier Castillian Spanish and it's a recipe for a disaster.

If you take a bus in Mexico, you have to use the verb tomar which the Spanish use for having a drink. If you use coger, you are having horizontal relations with the bus and your private end will no doubt be blackened by the exhaust pipe. Still, would bring new meaning to the word the bus came early for a change...

Another major impact on the Argentinian Spanish is the Italian influence.  I read somehwere that at one time Beunos Aires was half Italian.  Since the Italian immigration happened long after Argentina was established already thriving, Spanish remained the national language but morphed from the Spanish we learn in school to the strange dialect it is today.  Whenever I go to BA, I am amazed what a strange city it truly is.  It seems to be the Spanish speaking city that wants to be almost anything else.  Strong English influences are everywhere.  The streets and parks were laid out to be similar to Paris.  And they manage their economy like the Italians........

Well, it wouldn't go much better if they managed their economy like the Spanish.

Kia - may I ask you a question, not sure you will know, but it's worth a shot. My father is a naturalized Spaniard, having spent some time there in his formative years. If I were to get a Spanish passport
1) Do I have to spend anytime in the country? I know kids of Spanish nationals are entitled to Spanish passports, but is this true of kids of naturalized Spaniards?

2) Do I have to give up my S.A. passport?

I don't really feel Spanish, but I'd like to have an EU passport, as travelling on an S.A. one is a nightmare, and can incur needless costs.

Rugby Fan wrote:

Against that rosy view, you could argue that Gatland would have been obliged to choose more English players and many seemed past their sell by date for this season against the All Blacks.

I'm not sure how you come to that conclusion, it was one of the least experienced English sides to have toured NZ, yet they were only convincingly beaten in one test. Taking the summr's results into consideration, were the B&I Lions to be played now, a majority English side would likely be the best hope of a series win.

kinggraf, there are two forms of Spanish nationality: by origin and not by origin. A child can only be granted Spanish nationality automatically through the former. As your father was not born in Spain, you would have to obtain Spanish nationality as he did: through residency. They have changed the rules on how long that takes and I think it's 10 years now. I'm not sure if there's a reduction for having a parent with Spanish nationality not by origin.

Over 18 years, there are only a select group of countries with historical ties to Spain that allow dual nationality and SA is not among them. My children could have a NZ and Spanish passport up until the age of 18 and thereafter would have to choose which nationality they want to take.

I have dual nationality from my Scottish father but do not have to renounce either nationality. We're expecting our first child in December and it's tempting to hop across to the UK to continue that family tradition. Having those combined passports means there are few places on earth where you need a visa so I can sympathise with your travelling nightmares. Personally, I'd find it extremely difficult to renounce my NZ nationality in order to get Spanish nationality. In fact, I know I wouldn't.

Cheers mate - Not really willing to give up my S.A. nationality. Was just hoping for a possible backdoor entry. Endless visa pain it is.

doctor_grey wrote:Another major impact on the Argentinian Spanish is the Italian influence.  I read somehwere that at one time Beunos Aires was half Italian.  Since the Italian immigration happened long after Argentina was established already thriving, Spanish remained the national language but morphed from the Spanish we learn in school to the strange dialect it is today.  Whenever I go to BA, I am amazed what a strange city it truly is.  It seems to be the Spanish speaking city that wants to be almost anything else.  Strong English influences are everywhere.  The streets and parks were laid out to be similar to Paris.  And they manage their economy like the Italians........

This is true, lots of Italians alright. Italian itself isnt that dissimilar to Spanish though. Closer I reckon than French or Portugese. Even Romanians whose language is Latin based tend to find Spanish fairly easy.

There is also a little dash of Irish influence in Buenos Aires believe it or not. One of the oldest hurling clubs outside of Ireland is in BA and there are lots of Irish place names in Argentina. Even the great Ernesto Che Guevara had Irish lineage and once came to Ireland to celebrate St Patricks day. His grandmother being one Ana Lynch.

kingraf wrote:Cheers mate - Not really willing to give up my S.A. nationality. Was just hoping for a possible backdoor entry. Endless visa pain it is.

There was a map recently published of what and how many countries each country can visit without a visa. SA ranked very very low. The UK and Sweden I think came out top.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/27/visamapper_n_4508343.html

If you can get your hands on any EU passport you are in business.

I do think the Wallabies have improved a lot since they were defeated by the Lions, but the Lions team that would have been selected this summer would in my view have looked quite different - even with Gatland selecting it.

It's also hard to guage the Wallabies properly with those Tests against France. France are a complete shambles, even outplayed by Scott Johnson's even more shambolic Scotland side in the 6 Nations. When France did keep it tight, Australia struggled under the pressure. There's no doubt the Lions put a huge amount of pressure on Australia in defence and at the set piece, and they would continue to do so had the Test series been played this summer.

Impossible to be sure of the outcome, but my view is that the outcome would be the same: 2-1 to the Lions.

GunsGerms wrote:

doctor_grey wrote:Another major impact on the Argentinian Spanish is the Italian influence.  I read somehwere that at one time Beunos Aires was half Italian.  Since the Italian immigration happened long after Argentina was established already thriving, Spanish remained the national language but morphed from the Spanish we learn in school to the strange dialect it is today.  Whenever I go to BA, I am amazed what a strange city it truly is.  It seems to be the Spanish speaking city that wants to be almost anything else.  Strong English influences are everywhere.  The streets and parks were laid out to be similar to Paris.  And they manage their economy like the Italians........

This is true, lots of Italians alright. Italian itself isnt that dissimilar to Spanish though. Closer I reckon than French or Portugese. Even Romanians whose language is Latin based tend to find Spanish fairly easy.

There is also a little dash of Irish influence in Buenos Aires believe it or not. One of the oldest hurling clubs outside of Ireland is in BA and there are lots of Irish place names in Argentina. Even the great Ernesto Che Guevara had Irish lineage and once came to Ireland to celebrate St Patricks day. His grandmother being one Ana Lynch.

I'm half Italian (fluent) and I find European Spanish the most difficult to understand of the big four Romance languages.  That's principally down to the tones in the accent, I find the smoother Central & South American Spanish much easier, similarly the written word.  I've got quite a few Portugese friends and they say they find Spanish more difficult than Italian but get on better with C & S.Am Spanish as well.

Argentina and Uruguay were definitely the easiest S.Am countries for me in terms of pronunciation, intonation and the odd Italian word, but the size of some of the countries meant that there was quite a bit of really significant regional variation, which the often quite regional immigration clearly played some part in.  Italian influences in Argentina are strongest in the central eastern regions, Argentina and Chile also have some very strong pockets of German influence (I found it most evident in lesser populated Patagonia), and Portugese wise Brazil has strong Italian influence in the southern states, with Sao Paolo a famous hotbed.

I would've thought French was a greater leap for an Italian than Spanish. People from Galicia, with Portuguese influences especially if they speak Gallego, speak with an operatic quality that to me sounds Italian in tone.

I guess it's what you're used to or what you prefer but I find South American Spanish more difficult than an Andalusian accent, which is saying something, as Sevilla has some weird ass pronunciation / vocabulary. But that's just down to the people with whom I'm in regular contact.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I would've thought French was a greater leap for an Italian than Spanish. People from Galicia, with Portuguese influences especially if they speak Gallego, speak with an operatic quality that to me sounds Italian in tone.

I guess it's what you're used to or what you prefer but I find South American Spanish more difficult than an Andalusian accent, which is saying something, as Sevilla has some weird ass pronunciation / vocabulary. But that's just down to the people with whom I'm in regular contact.

I understand where he is coming from re tone and pronunciation however, I reckon in terms of similarity of words and structures Spanish and Italian are the closest. In other words if you only had to read them all Spanish would find Italian easiest except if you are from Catalonia and you speak Catalan and then possibly French would be easiest.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I would've thought French was a greater leap for an Italian than Spanish. People from Galicia, with Portuguese influences especially if they speak Gallego, speak with an operatic quality that to me sounds Italian in tone.

I guess it's what you're used to or what you prefer but I find South American Spanish more difficult than an Andalusian accent, which is saying something, as Sevilla has some weird ass pronunciation / vocabulary. But that's just down to the people with whom I'm in regular contact.

Yeah Im used to the Andalusian accent and it is tough because they dont pronounce lots of letters. Technically SA Spanish is easier to pronounce and understand but if you arent used to it you have to start again a little particularly with regards to the vocab in my experience.

My (half-spanish) girlfriend speaks fluent spanish and can essentially get by fine in Italian as the languages are so similar. We were just in Portugal and due to similar written words she could read everything but the pronunciation is so different that speaking and listening was far harder

If Spanish people read Portuguese or Italian, they can pretty much understand it but if they hear it spoken they have difficulties because there are sounds that don't exist in Spanish. Apart from the Catalans as you say GG, French is more of a stretch to understand. Romanian is a stretch for everyone else but they seem to have little trouble in picking up the other Romance languages. Portugal and I think Romania as well have television programmes in English with their respective language's subtitles so it's no surprise that they speak English far better than Spanish, French or Italians who have their television dubbed.

It's all about exposing your ear to different sounds as early as possible. Even if you don't know what's being said, you're assimilating those sounds into your phonetic knowledge.

Two Australian sides are now in the Super Rugby semi finals after the Brumbies downed the Chiefs.

That doesn't automatically mean the Wallabies are a tougher proposition this year but it ought to raise their confidence. Given that New Zealand went into the play-offs with three out of the six sides, there will be disappointment that only the Crusaders are left in the competition.

NZ media mostly seem to think the All Blacks will still rule the roost in the Rugby Championships. The Wallabies couldn't beat them when Queensland took the Super title but you could argue Deans wasn't really sympathetic to their game plan and personnel.

In the hypothetical Lions vs Wallabies 2014 version, Henry Speight still wouldn't be available for selection. If, as expected, he chooses to play for Australia, he will almost certainly be at the World Cup.

It often took three Chiefs player to tackle him, so he'll be a defensive challenge for Wales and England.

Is this thread about a hypothetical B&I Lions question or is it a bloody lesson in European languages and /or naturilastion?

plenth wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:

doctor_grey wrote:Another major impact on the Argentinian Spanish is the Italian influence.  I read somehwere that at one time Beunos Aires was half Italian.  Since the Italian immigration happened long after Argentina was established already thriving, Spanish remained the national language but morphed from the Spanish we learn in school to the strange dialect it is today.  Whenever I go to BA, I am amazed what a strange city it truly is.  It seems to be the Spanish speaking city that wants to be almost anything else.  Strong English influences are everywhere.  The streets and parks were laid out to be similar to Paris.  And they manage their economy like the Italians........

This is true, lots of Italians alright. Italian itself isnt that dissimilar to Spanish though. Closer I reckon than French or Portugese. Even Romanians whose language is Latin based tend to find Spanish fairly easy.

There is also a little dash of Irish influence in Buenos Aires believe it or not. One of the oldest hurling clubs outside of Ireland is in BA and there are lots of Irish place names in Argentina. Even the great Ernesto Che Guevara had Irish lineage and once came to Ireland to celebrate St Patricks day. His grandmother being one Ana Lynch.

I'm half Italian (fluent) and I find European Spanish the most difficult to understand of the big four Romance languages.  That's principally down to the tones in the accent, I find the smoother Central & South American Spanish much easier, similarly the written word.  I've got quite a few Portugese friends and they say they find Spanish more difficult than Italian but get on better with C & S.Am Spanish as well.

Argentina and Uruguay were definitely the easiest S.Am countries for me in terms of pronunciation, intonation and the odd Italian word, but the size of some of the countries meant that there was quite a bit of really significant regional variation, which the often quite regional immigration clearly played some part in.  Italian influences in Argentina are strongest in the central eastern regions, Argentina and Chile also have some very strong pockets of German influence (I found it most evident in lesser populated Patagonia), and Portugese wise Brazil has strong Italian influence in the southern states, with Sao Paolo a famous hotbed.

Old definition of an Argentinian is an Italian who speaks Spanish and wants to be English... But as has often been mentioned lots of other immigrant groups. Hence the small community of Welsh speakers, and decendents of Germans speaking a dialect long since extinct in Europe. Cornish copper miners went out to Chile and Argentina also. And the Irish as usual get everywhere. Apparently there was some guy called something like P.N. O'Shay whose decendent ran a military dictatorship a few years back.

Latin american spanish definitely easier to learn and speak as an english speaker 1st. No wierd tongue twisting elements and, most importantly, they speak slower. I did a Spanish course in Guatemala a long time ago (now mostly forgotten) and it was enough for me to be able to understand most of what was said to me and to get by in general. I then remember watching a film on tv out there and not understanding anything, then realising that it was a spanish film..

The foundation on which we won on was the scrum; especially the first and third tests. There is currently no tight head within the four nations who could do the job Adam Jones did a year ago and that's including Adam Jones himself. Therefore I would say no, we could still put out a dominant pack but our edge in the scrum wouldn't be a effective as it was.

But we could have played better in all other areas