Races within the Race

As we head into the penultimate Masters tournament of the year, all the talk on the race (certainly from a British media perspective) is of who will be the elite 8 who qualify for the World Tour Finals in London.

However what other stories are lurking in the race?

1 Novak Djokovic 8660
2 Roger Federer 7030
3 Rafael Nadal 6745
4 Stan Wawrinka 4805
5 Kei Nishikori 4265
6 Marin Cilic 3990
7 Tomas Berdych 3775
8 Milos Raonic 3735
9 Andy Murray 3575
10 David Ferrer 3545
11 Grigor Dimitrov 3415
12 Jo Wilfried Tsonga 2650
13 Ernests Gulbis 2455
14 Roberto Bautista Agut 1845
15 John Isner 1800
16 Kevin Anderson 1795
17 Fabio Fognini 1780
18 Tommy Robredo 1715
19 Gael Monfils 1710
20 Feliciano Lopez 1665

Year End Number One:
Unless Wawrinka won every event from now to the WTF, he's out of the running so the contenders are:
1 Novak Djokovic 8660
2 Roger Federer 7030
3 Rafael Nadal 6745
A win in Shanghai would put him about 2300 in the lead, and given Nadal's indoor record and Federer's focus on the Davis Cup, that would virtually guarantee the YE#1. Nadal's best chance if Djokovic going out early here and losing focus in the final few weeks with the arrival of his baby.

Second seeding
Almost a subset of the race to YE#1, who will be in prime spot for the second seed at the WTF and onto the Aus Open? It's certainly Federer's best chance at a slam to have Djokovic and Nadal drawn into the opposite half (although obviously he's more subseptible to losing to many others now). The most likely scenario for Federer to finish in the top 2 is for Nadal to continue his form from Beijing and not get any confidence or momentum going.

Fourth seeding
Fourth position is important as they only has to play one of the big 3 in the RR stage of the WTF and get their own quarter at the Aus Open. At the moment the most likely contenders are:
4 Stan Wawrinka 4805
5 Kei Nishikori 4265
6 Marin Cilic 3990
(although a deep run at either Masters could bring others in the equation).
I'm not sure about Cilic as his Masters record has never been great, and Nishikori may well tire or break down soon, so I think despite his recent poor form, Wawrinka will clinch it.

Top 12
Again, all about preferential seeding by avoiding the top 4 in the R16 at the Aus Open. Likely contenders:
11 Grigor Dimitrov 3415
12 Jo Wilfried Tsonga 2650
13 Ernests Gulbis 2455
Amazingly, given there is just over 500 points between 6th and 11th in the race, there is nearly 1000 between 11th and 13th.Dimitrov has a nice lead over the injured Tsonga and eratic Gulbis. I suspect that Gulbis will overtake Tsonga in his absense and take the 12th position.

Of course, there are similar stories further down the race, particularly around the thirties and who gets the protection of a seeding at all. And smaller gaps mean that the first week of the season could have a big effect on seedings for the Aus Open.

Any other mini battles interest you in the race? Do you see anyone making a big move?

Novak will be YE1 subject to his baby's birth completely derailing him in Paris/London. He's in a league of his own at the moment.

I think Kei might catch Stan for the top 4 spot. He has been hugely impressive post US Open and I can see him making big inroads in at least one masters plus the WTF. If he can avoid Novak in Paris I could also see Andy picking up a win there and giving himself a shot with a WTF run.

The top 12 I think Jo will make it if he is fit to play Paris. If not, Gulbis has enough of a lead over the rest to make it.

Race-wise I think the top 6 are there. Raonic I think will make it based on sheer dull consistency. The final spot will be between Andy and Berdych. Andy could do with a kind draw in Paris (as oppose to continually facing Novak at the earliest possible point) and if he gets that I think he will make it.

I would not be shocked if Nishi caught Stan and finished the year at #4. He has been playing really well lately.

Regarding Murray, and going by Beijing, makes me a bit apprehensive about his chances to get into WTF, despite being a contender of the title in the past.

Any continuing injury issues with Nadal can also change the dynamics of WTF, if not the AO.

One, or two more new faces at WTF would be wonderful. Nishikori and Cilic, and if Dimitrov can make a push would be good. (I miss DelPo. It looks like his career may be over due to injuries).

Gulbis would have been better than Berdych (IMHO), but he seems to have lost focus, yet again.

Excellent OP.

What makes things especially interesting this year is that we now have a week between Paris and London, which I think makes it more likely for the top guys to go all out to win it.

I think Novak's win in Beijing has probably put enough points on the board for him to take YE#1. It's not signed, sealed and delivered yet, but even if he goes out in the first round in Shanghai and misses Paris completely, Federer needs to win both events to head to London leading the race.

My expectation is that this year will be like last year: the #1 ranking is technically still to play for in London but only requires a couple of group stage wins for the front runner to claim it.

I think the #4 position will be Nishikori's. He has good momentum whereas Stan has been patchy for a while now. I'd even say there is a decent chance of Kei winning one of the remaining 1000s, such is his form.

The race for #2 is the toughest to predict. If Novak outscores Roger in Shanghai, and thus reduces Roger's chance of becoming YE#1 to just mathematical possibility, I'm not sure that Roger will go all out in Paris with WTF and DC so soon after.

Rafa is still on the comeback trail and this is also not a period where he has often been too successful (I seem to recall reading somewhere that he has only ever won two events in total in his career in the period following USO. I caveat that by saying I haven't checked that stat and I'm too lazy to do so!). I really have no idea what to expect from him.

For the sake of making a prediction though, I'll say Roger holds on to #2.

And then Novak gets an absolutely rotten Wawrinka or Murray QF / Nadal SF draw in Australia!

Novak loves him that chinese cooking and those indoor courts that is for sure. If he just makes semis from here on out and doesn't win anything he is probably assured the year ender, which he seems to be able to do almost automatically at this stage. He has been the best indoor player in the world now for about 3 years so it is not a big stretch for him. Will be interesting to see if fed can get the #2 seeding. A great thread by the way and very well thought out by Yvonne.

socal1976 wrote:Novak loves him that chinese cooking and those indoor courts that is for sure.

Medium speed hard courts.

Cool conditions.

Fans that love him.

China is perfect for Novak!

I've just realised though that I forgot about Basel in my last post. If Federer wins there, that changes the complexion of the race for YE#1.  Novak remains the favourite but he doesn't have quite the same leeway as a I first thought.

laverfan wrote: (I miss DelPo. It looks like his career may be over due to injuries).

I heard he's back in training to all may not be lost yet, LF. Tennis needs someone like him who has no fear against the top guys.

The Special Juan wrote:

laverfan wrote: (I miss DelPo. It looks like his career may be over due to injuries).

I heard he's back in training to all may not be lost yet, LF.  Tennis needs someone like him who has no fear against the top guys.

He's been posting some photos and fairly positive messages on Twitter, so all is not lost yet!

But I agree, the tour is much richer when he's fit and in form. I really hope he makes a strong comeback.

summerblues wrote:I would not be shocked if Nishi caught Stan and finished the year at #4.  He has been playing really well lately.

I wouldn't be shocked either and it would be very well deserved, but I just have a nagging feeling that he's going to end up pulling out of one or more of the remaining tournaments with injuries.

I missed Del Potro too - would have been good to see what he could have done with some of the busted brackets during the US hardcourt swing.

HM Murdoch wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Novak loves him that chinese cooking and those indoor courts that is for sure.

Medium speed hard courts.

Cool conditions.

Fans that love him.

China is perfect for Novak!

I've just realised though that I forgot about Basel in my last post. If Federer wins there, that changes the complexion of the race for YE#1.  Novak remains the favourite but he doesn't have quite the same leeway as a I first thought.

I can't see Novak bombing out of the indoor tournaments to lose the year end #1. If he wins one of the two remaining masters and attains his typical semi status in the other tournaments it is a very tough task. Fed and Nadal both in with a shout though. Basel is only 500 points and if Djoko plays there is pretty much guaranteed of going pretty deep. The big concern is if he somehow is hurt or bombs out of the year ender and fed wins it. Then it could get sticky. He just needs a bit of consistency and doesn't need to be brilliant to finish the year as number 1.

socal1976 wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Novak loves him that chinese cooking and those indoor courts that is for sure.

Medium speed hard courts.

Cool conditions.

Fans that love him.

China is perfect for Novak!

I've just realised though that I forgot about Basel in my last post. If Federer wins there, that changes the complexion of the race for YE#1.  Novak remains the favourite but he doesn't have quite the same leeway as a I first thought.

I can't see Novak bombing out of the indoor tournaments to lose the year end #1. If he wins one of the two remaining masters and attains his typical semi status in the other tournaments it is a very tough task. Fed and Nadal both in with a shout though. Basel is only 500 points and if Djoko plays there is pretty much guaranteed of going pretty deep. The big concern is if he somehow is hurt or bombs out of the year ender and fed wins it. Then it could get sticky. He just needs a bit of consistency and doesn't need to be brilliant to finish the year as number 1.

Djoko's not scheduled for Basel the last I looked. Its hard to see him entering it with all else that's going on.. Did they have the baby? I saw yesterday he said he had a "big announcement" for today.

The atp website says Stan will qualify if he makes the sf and nishi if he wins Shanghai.

Really good OP Yvonne. btw are you interested in sports journalism ?

I see Murray making it, with Berdych dropping out.

TRuffin wrote:

socal1976 wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Novak loves him that chinese cooking and those indoor courts that is for sure.

Medium speed hard courts.

Cool conditions.

Fans that love him.

China is perfect for Novak!

I've just realised though that I forgot about Basel in my last post. If Federer wins there, that changes the complexion of the race for YE#1.  Novak remains the favourite but he doesn't have quite the same leeway as a I first thought.

I can't see Novak bombing out of the indoor tournaments to lose the year end #1. If he wins one of the two remaining masters and attains his typical semi status in the other tournaments it is a very tough task. Fed and Nadal both in with a shout though. Basel is only 500 points and if Djoko plays there is pretty much guaranteed of going pretty deep. The big concern is if he somehow is hurt or bombs out of the year ender and fed wins it. Then it could get sticky. He just needs a bit of consistency and doesn't need to be brilliant to finish the year as number 1.

Djoko's not scheduled for Basel the last I looked.  Its hard to see him entering it with all else that's going on..  Did they have the baby? I saw yesterday he said he had a "big announcement" for today.

Don't know if he wins another big event or gets to the finals of London it could be all but over for the year ender and a couple of hundred points in Basel here and there should not worry him.

Well, Wawrinka and Cilic out so a chance for Nishikori to close the gap for fourth.

Gulbis out leaves Tsonga in 12th position.

With Nadal's illness, looks like Federer has the advantage in the race for YE#2.

It Must Be Love wrote:Really good OP Yvonne. btw are you interested in sports journalism ?

Ha, definitely not - I like numbers much more than words!

Wawrinka going out clears the way for Berdych to make the SF, albeit he has to overcome negative H2Hs against his next two opponents - Gasquet and Karlovic. If he can do that he will be looking very strong for London.

It really takes the shine off a tournament for me when draws become so imbalanced.

I notice that Dimitrov is also out in R2, so would probably need to win Paris to make the WTF.

Of course, Cilic losing has no bearing on his chance of qualifying for London - as long as Stan doesn't fall to 8th or below, MC qualifies on the strength of his USO title (as he cannot fall below 20th). Chances of Stan falling to 8th? Well, I think it is mathematically possible at this stage, but would need a specific set of results for the guys that would need to overtake him. Slightly better odds of me winning the Euromillions on Friday...

BTW - Nishikori a set down to the wonderfully named Jack Sock in R2, while Andy has won the first set against Janowicz.

Nishikori's gone too now, apparently struggling physically, and maybe he's just been playing too much in recent weeks (though he has accrued useful points of course over those weeks. Could still be dragged back into the fight through good performances from Andy, Raonic and Berdych here...

MfC


Kei is 500ish points ahead of Berdy and Raonic, 700ish ahead of Murray. In theory could be back in the shake-up, but it would need all of them to pass him to him to miss out (regardless of where Cilic ends up). I'd probably give 25/1 on that he will qualify for the WTF, as it would need him to miss out in Paris as well and for the three chasing to reach SFs and Finals.

Anyway, Murray through well against JJ. Ferrer up next, then potentially Djokovic, Federer and Nadal.

I see what people mean about the draw being top heavy - an ill Nadal, Berdych and Raonic being the big names in the bottom half...

From the perspective of Andy reaching the WTF, it couldn't have fallen much worse, as he will do well to get further than the QFs which shouldn't close the gap on Raonic (who is scheduled to play Rafa at the same stage) and will probably see Berdych get further ahead (SF at least)

Raonic gone too, retiring against Monaco when 5-2 down. Chance for Murray to make up at least a few points now...

Mad for Chelsea wrote:Raonic gone too, retiring against Monaco when 5-2 down. Chance for Murray to make up at least a few points now...

Well, that at least is good news for Andy's WTF hopes. Rafa a set down to Lopez though, so the run through to the final for Berdych could look pretty straight-forward by the end of today's play.

What odds that the draw for Paris puts Raonic and Murray as meeting in the round of 16, so effectively a shoot-out for the last WTF spot?

I think that its gone as well as could be expected for Andy once the draw came out. Of the two threats from behind (Dimi and Ferrer) one is out and he has the chance to take Ferrer out himself, so its in his hands to ensure no-one overtakes him.

There were two players he could catch with a QF result - Berdych and Raonic. One of them has gone out. Consequently, if he reaches the QF and loses to Novak again he will be top 8. If he somehow gets further he can then potentially close down on the likes of Kei and Stan (with the ultimate aim of getting back in the top 4 sooner rather than later).

YvonneT wrote:

It Must Be Love wrote:Really good OP Yvonne. btw are you interested in sports journalism ?

Ha, definitely not - I like numbers much more than words!

Hehe no worries

With Berdych out to Simon, I'm really not getting the impression that the players that actually get to the WTF will be likely to play particularly well once there. Some years, it just lacks much sparkle as everyone is too tired.

According to reports Murray has now entered Vienna next week and Valencia the following week. He is obviously still keen to try and get to the O2. Whether or not he will make it is in the balance. Ferrer looks to be coming in to a good run of form and is also playing these two tournaments.

Am I right in thinking Andy is therefore playing 6 straight weeks, to qualify for an event which a month ago he said he was not bothered about? I think I'd prefer if he skipped Vienna. He's surely pushing himself too hard and risking injury.

Yes looks like 6 weeks in a row. They were saying on Sky that with Raonic playing Moscow, Ferrer Vienna, and Berdych Stockholm that his hand was almost being forced or he might fall another 250 points behind. Agree that it could be too much. I suppose the good thing is though that he must be feeling ok physically or he would not be putting in the effort to qualify.

There's a relatively weak field in Vienna this year (by that I mean there's no one Murray will fear). The top 8 seeds are:

Murray
Lopez
Kohli
Rosol
Goffin
Karlovic
GGL
Thiem

It might be a very smart decision to, at the very least, get some indoor practice before Basel.

Fun fact: The current reigning champion in Vienna is Tommy Haas.  The last British winner was Tim Henman in 2000 who in the final defeated.....  Tommy Haas!

Ferrer is playing Vienna - as number 1 seed? Has he pulled out?

Born Slippy wrote:Ferrer is playing Vienna - as number 1 seed? Has he pulled out?

I've re-checked it and he's now been added to yeah he's playing Vienna.

Wait, now it's saying Goffin has withdrawn? I give up.

After his USO loss Andy Murray lied about WTF:

I’ll play the right schedule. ... I won’t expect to overplay just to try to qualify.

I always wanted to know what Ilija Bozoljac looked like - here from the Vienna's tournament's official website:

http://www.erstebank-open.com/en/event/players

Ilija from a slightly different angle:

Brilliant!! Thiem looks like he's caught too much sun.

I wouldn't be surprised if Murray's trying to rack up points before the AO to guarantee a more favourable seeding rather than make the WTF, but the WTF is where some big points lie...

Fed's win today keeps the year end #1 within the realm of plausible, though still unlikely.

To end at #1, he would probably have to:

1. win tomorrow,
1. win both Basel and WTF, and
2. outperform Nole in Paris

Still a long shot, but not totally impossible.  If Nole ends up dropping out of either Paris or WTF on account of the baby, Fed might have a more realistic chance.

The other wildcard in the race to #1 is the Davis Cup, that's for a team and a country, more than a personal achievement. Federer has never won it, but has been y/e no 1 several times. Does he go full out at Basle/Paris for the #1 thinking he has enough to pull out the Davis Cup anyway or tank it to prioritise the Davis Cup?

Wow, just saw the first match point against Mayer, that is really really close, like a few millimetres higher and the race was over

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKTaxXUkInU

at 2.40

Or, as Roger is quoted on the BBC site:

I was thinking about [the victory over Leonardo Mayer in the first round] midway through the match when I was up a set and a break going, 'Hmm, should I be here or elsewhere? I'm here, let's make the most of it,'" he said. "I remember how lucky I got. Clearly I feel very fortunate being in the tournament.

As far as the remaining subplots of the race go, I was quite disappointed this week in how poorly many of the guys did this week. This was a week to try and win some serious points, yet Rao, Stan, Nishi, Cilic, Dimi all went out quite meekly.

Nishi is understandable after his recent run but yes the others tut tut!

Cilic won't do anything 'til next year. No one kicks on after their first major win.

Stan kicked on for a bit winning Monte Carlo but not much since.

My wishlist to make a thrilling WTF for the #1 spot:

Scenario 1:
- Federer winning Basel and losing to Djoko in Paris final
That would put Federer 890pts behind Djoko in the race
- Djoko and Fed to go through to WTF SF with the same amount of match wins
If Djoko wins his SF, he secures #1, if he loses Fed needs to win the WTF to overpass Djoko by..10 pts!
(in that sense I'd love if they both win 2 RR and face each other in the SF, big stakes!! and to add to the story, why not Nadal in the final (less likely nowadays) - so let's say Cilic or Nishi or Dimi, who would eventually beat Fed in their way to take over the old generation!    )

Scenario 2:
- Fed winning both Basel and Paris, defeating Djoko in the Final (less likely to happen than first scenario - but in another way, it works also if Fed gets one step further than Djoko in Paris).
Fed would then be 90 pts behind Djoko in the race
- Then I'd love both to face in the final: final match of the season and the winner is YE#1! That would be thrilling to watch for fans of both sides!

Note that in this scenario 2, it remains similar regardless of match wins in RR. Fed could also only reach the final of Basel and have only 2RR, and the YE#1 would remain at stake in a hypotetical final (being just 490 pts behind Djoko)
Well, it works as long as there is less than 500 points between them going into the final.

Other scenarii are more complex so less enjoyable (like defeats in semis etc.)
Let's have scenario 2 to get everybody glued to the WTF Final!