Races within the Race

First topic message reminder :

As we head into the penultimate Masters tournament of the year, all the talk on the race (certainly from a British media perspective) is of who will be the elite 8 who qualify for the World Tour Finals in London.

However what other stories are lurking in the race?

1 Novak Djokovic 8660
2 Roger Federer 7030
3 Rafael Nadal 6745
4 Stan Wawrinka 4805
5 Kei Nishikori 4265
6 Marin Cilic 3990
7 Tomas Berdych 3775
8 Milos Raonic 3735
9 Andy Murray 3575
10 David Ferrer 3545
11 Grigor Dimitrov 3415
12 Jo Wilfried Tsonga 2650
13 Ernests Gulbis 2455
14 Roberto Bautista Agut 1845
15 John Isner 1800
16 Kevin Anderson 1795
17 Fabio Fognini 1780
18 Tommy Robredo 1715
19 Gael Monfils 1710
20 Feliciano Lopez 1665

Year End Number One:
Unless Wawrinka won every event from now to the WTF, he's out of the running so the contenders are:
1 Novak Djokovic 8660
2 Roger Federer 7030
3 Rafael Nadal 6745
A win in Shanghai would put him about 2300 in the lead, and given Nadal's indoor record and Federer's focus on the Davis Cup, that would virtually guarantee the YE#1. Nadal's best chance if Djokovic going out early here and losing focus in the final few weeks with the arrival of his baby.

Second seeding
Almost a subset of the race to YE#1, who will be in prime spot for the second seed at the WTF and onto the Aus Open? It's certainly Federer's best chance at a slam to have Djokovic and Nadal drawn into the opposite half (although obviously he's more subseptible to losing to many others now). The most likely scenario for Federer to finish in the top 2 is for Nadal to continue his form from Beijing and not get any confidence or momentum going.

Fourth seeding
Fourth position is important as they only has to play one of the big 3 in the RR stage of the WTF and get their own quarter at the Aus Open. At the moment the most likely contenders are:
4 Stan Wawrinka 4805
5 Kei Nishikori 4265
6 Marin Cilic 3990
(although a deep run at either Masters could bring others in the equation).
I'm not sure about Cilic as his Masters record has never been great, and Nishikori may well tire or break down soon, so I think despite his recent poor form, Wawrinka will clinch it.

Top 12
Again, all about preferential seeding by avoiding the top 4 in the R16 at the Aus Open. Likely contenders:
11 Grigor Dimitrov 3415
12 Jo Wilfried Tsonga 2650
13 Ernests Gulbis 2455
Amazingly, given there is just over 500 points between 6th and 11th in the race, there is nearly 1000 between 11th and 13th.Dimitrov has a nice lead over the injured Tsonga and eratic Gulbis. I suspect that Gulbis will overtake Tsonga in his absense and take the 12th position.

Of course, there are similar stories further down the race, particularly around the thirties and who gets the protection of a seeding at all. And smaller gaps mean that the first week of the season could have a big effect on seedings for the Aus Open.

Any other mini battles interest you in the race? Do you see anyone making a big move?

Fascinating stuff. The unique factor is Davis Cup.

In one scenario Federer snatches the Y/E #1 by winning a tie or two in the final. In an even stranger one he just misses out, then takes #1 in the new year as Djokovic's 2013 DC points drop off.

Of course Federer might capture #1 by exceeding Djokovic by >490 in Paris, then give it back at the O2, then see above.

back to London for a minute, and it looks like reallistically Ferrer and Raonic are battling it out for that last spot, with whoever goes furthest making it to London. Ferrer is ahead right now, so will go if they go out at the same stage. They could both make it if they reach SFs and Berdych doesn't make QF. Then all sorts of permutations if both of them make the final.

Dimitrov isn't completely out of it, but would need to either a) make the SF, Ferrer to lose his first match, and Raonic to not make QF, b) make the final with neither Ferrer nor Raonic making the SF, or c) win the tournament.

For Murray to not make the WTF it would take Ferrer and Raonic to both make the final, Berdych to make SF, Nishikori to make QF, and Murray not to make QF, or Dimitrov beating Raonic in the final, and same for Berdych and Nishikori. Basically if he reaches QF he's through, if Raonic loses before the final he's through.

Murray is also now only 510 points behind Wawrinka in the race, and could overtake him by winning and Stan not making the final, or by losing the final and Stan losing his opening match.

Elsewhere, obviously there's the battle for YE n°1. There's also a fairly important battle for 12th (and avoiding the top 4 in R4 of slams) between Tsonga and Gulbis. Gulbis would need to make at least SF (and hope Tsonga doesn't make QF) to overtake him. Anyone from Lopez in 14th down to Simon in 21st could actually get that spot, but would need to win the tournament to do so (and have early-ish exits for Tsonga and Gulbis).

EDIT: the race to london is explained quite clearly here
https://cleaningthelines.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/race-to-london-murray-wins.png

@ MFC

Now that I see the updated points on the official site I can see you're right.
Murray and Nishikori have already basically qualified for the WTF, as far as I can see. It must be a rather absurb set of results needed for that not to be the case.
Berdych is highlghly likely to qualify as well, unless 2 of the players below him reach the semis, which seems unlikely.

Ferrer is 25 points ahead of Raonic so just needs to match him, whereas Raonic will just need to go a round further. Really that's all there's in to it unless you're in the mood for extreme pedantry and detail.

So chances are we will see
Federer, Djokovic, Murray, Warwinka,
Berdych, Cilic, Nishikori

and either Ferrer or Raonic

maybe both if we have another withdrawal

Gulbis ended his season with injury.

Tsonga does level the match, to a decider we go

Raonic had to beat Federer to stay alive...and does! Ferrer loses in his next match and Raonic would qualify by the look of it.

Federer's defeat a blow to his year end no 1 chances. Djokovic strong favourite now (80/20).

Interesting comment by Federer. "Whether I am No. 1 at the end of this year, or one or two weeks later next year, it doesn’t really matter." I consider that him chiming in on the weeks at no 1 vs year end no 1s debate. I have to disagree Sir Rog.

Fed likes to see the cup half full.  Of course it matters, YE #1 is fought for harder than a random week at #1.  That said, they are both good, and while it would be nicer to get the YE #1, it would still be nice enough to get there thereafter.

However, I am not so sure how Fed would expect to get there shortly after the YE anyway.  He is defending more points at AO than Nole, so if anything he might be slipping further back unless he does really well there (like maybe winning the whole thing).

I am thinking that getting to #1 by the end of this year might have been his best chance.

Scenarios for year end no 1. This is all my own reckoning so hope someone can cross check.
Short version:
Federer MUST win world tour finals and even then needs Djokovic to win at most 2 matches, preferably one. In either case it then comes down to Davis Cup points. To win without Davis Cup, Federer needs Djokovic to lose every match at WTF and he himself to win every one.

Djokovic will be year end number one for sure if either he wins three matches or Federer does not win the tournament. If Federer loses a group match, Djokovic only needs 2 wins.

Long version:
Djokovic now leads by 1,310. World Tour finals points I assume still 200 per group game, 400 per SF, 500 F.
Davis Cup points: 75 per win plus 75 bonus points if Federer wins both matches and the team title. Max 225.

Scenario 1
Federer WTF undefeated (1500), and Djokovic gets 0. Only scenario where Federer takes year end no 1 without Davis Cup points.

Scenario 2
Federer WTF undefeated (1500) and Djokovic only 1 win (200), Federer cuts lead from 1,310 to 10, so Fed needs 1 Davis Cup win. Same if Federer wins WTF with a loss (1300) and Djokovic loses all (0).

Scenario 3
Federer wins WTF undefeated (1500) and Djokovic wins 2 matches (400), a scenario that likely requires Djokovic losing in the semi final to Federer, that cuts Djokovic's lead by 1100 to 210. If this happens Federer would then need >210 points from the Davis Cup. Makes Djokovic favourite as Federer would need to win both singles matches and both would need to be live and win the Davis Cup as a team. If so he wins by 15 points. Same if Federer wins WTF with loss (1300) and Djokovic win one match only (200).

Scenario 4
If Federer gets to the final undefeated but loses (1000 points) and Djokovic nothing. (0). Federer cuts the lead to 310 going into the Davis Cup. He cannot get that many points. This means that Federer MUST win the WTF to have any chance at all of y/e no 1, since even the most favourable scenario of all (this one) where he doesn’t win it doesn’t produce the goods.

Scenario 5
Federer wins the WFT undefeated (1500) while Djokovic wins all group matches (600). Cuts the lead to 410 which cannot be made up at Davis Cup. Another way to look at this is if Djokovic wins any three matches at the World Tour finals, he will be number 1 at the end of the year no matter what else happens.

Good post, HB.

I can see some potential controversy if scenario 3 occurs - Federer securing #1 through Davis Cup bonus points.

I think it's a bit odd that DC points are awarded in the first place TBH. I think I'm right in saying that only World Group matches count, but how far the team go in the world group (and indeed if you're even in it) doesn't only depend on the player, which seems contrary to the basic premise of an individual sport.

A small precision on scenario 5: Djokovic can also potentially get 600 points from one group win and a SF win (in the case where one group win gets him through, which is mathematically possible).

I suppose they want to incentivise players to play and understand that players are losing ranking points (and prize money) by playing Davis Cup, because they may have to skip a tournament, if not in the same week, but maybe in the week after.

Personally I like simplicity and fairness and would probably give no points for Davis Cup.

I think what the analysis shows is that a Djokovic year end no 1 would be fully deserved with a slam and 4 masters series out of 9 (2 to Federer). If Federer wins it it would be a more a case of him sneaking it based on a bit better consistency when it could almost be a draw.

What is notable this year is that Federer leads the head to head 3-2. Further, that the 3 Federer won were extremely convincing while the 2 Djokovic won were very close. Unfortunately for Federer, he won the three semi finals and in the three least important tournaments while Djokovic won the two that were finals, the two that were for titles, and the most ranking points available, and the most important tournaments.

Had Federer won the 5th set at Wimbledon and the deciding set at Indian Wells then he would have 5-0 on Djokovic this season, one slam to nil, tied on number of masters series wins, and the rankings points swing in his favour would mean he would be going into WTF with an amount of points lead similar to what Djokovic has, and just waiting for a couple of wins to confirm his fully deserved no 1 ranking.

Really the 5th set at Wimbledon (6-4) and the decider at Indian Wells (7-6), just two or three games in Djokovic's favour, are what have decided it, but I guess that's how it should be.

Some interesting battles coming up at the WTF's between those currently between 4 and 9 in the rankings. Wawrinka currently 4th has a bit of a gap over Nikishori who in turn has a smaller gap to a cluster of Murray, Berdych and Raonic (within 35 points of each other). Then about 290 points to Cilic. However with 200 points for group wins the rankings could change around quite significantly. A good tournament for those behind Wawrinka could get them a 4th place ranking going into next year and bad tournament could see them drop to 9th. So lots to play for.

Well done to Djokovic, just saw his on court interview and he seemd to think year end no 1 was quite a big deal, I think it is, deserved after his Wimbledon title, masters wins and finishing the season strongly. No slip up from Federer here, but left too much to do, could have been a different story but Djokovic has what it takes in deciding sets at times.

It seems very often the case that whoever wins Wimbledon, will be year end number one.
Borg was no 1 until the year he lost Wimbledon.
If we look at Sampras era many times he won Wimbledon and was year end number one.
Federer 2004-2007 won Wimbledon and was year end number one, every time. (But not in 2003.)
2008 winning Wimbledon was what Rafa needed to take the #1, and he held it to year end.
2009 Federer Wimbledon and year end no 1.
2010 Rafa Wimbledon and year end no 1.
2011 Djokovic Wimbledon and year end no 1.
2014 Djokovic Wimbledon and year end no 1.
Not sure if there's something in this, or whether it it all coincidence. I suspect the Wimbledon champion in history has been y/e no 1 a higher % of the time than all other slams.

Exceptions being in 2012 when Federer went to no 1 after winning Wimbledon, but was not able to hold it at the year end. And 2013 when Murray won Wimbledon without ever getting close to no 1.
Another exception would be Lendl era, I seem to recall he got a fair few year end no 1s with no Wimbledon.

Henman Bill wrote:Well done to Djokovic, just saw his on court interview and he seemd to think year end no 1 was quite a big deal, I think it is, deserved after his Wimbledon title, masters wins and finishing the season strongly. No slip up from Federer here, but left too much to do, could have been a different story but Djokovic has what it takes in deciding sets at times.

It is a big deal if you look at the names of the players who have won at least three year end #1s it is the absolute elite of the sport since 1970s when the open era ATP rankings came into affect. Sampras, Borg, Connors, Mac, Lendl, Nadal, Federer, and Djokovic. Sure people can say it is a 52 week ranking but getting it at the end of the year means in that calendar year from start to finish you won the most points. And it also has the added benefit of giving you 2 months of free time where you rack up weeks at number 1 at the end of the season without having to play any tennis.

Well done to Djokovic for tying up the EOY number 1 slot, fully deserved.

It's very well-deserved, it's been a very good year overall, and he has kept some of his best tennis until the latter stages of the season. Only one solitary loss since the USO, and I think it would be a big surprise if he doesn't end things on a high note here in London.

Well done Novak

Aye, many congratulations Novak. And well-deserved, too!

Still the man to beat going forward into 2015.

Thanks for this thread Yvonne, it's been interesting touching upon these little battles in the race.

What likelihood of Djoko staying number one throughout 2015? Good chance, I'd say.

A good AO showing and he's in a very strong position, that's for sure. Defending the IW-Miami double though, so there could be dropped points there. Another 52 weeks would be one hell of an achievement either way.

Main challenger is Federer who could spring a surprise if he has an excellent clay season on top of a solid start, but has little chance of making inroads post-RG as he's had a great season since then in 2014.

Nadal - who knows?!

Silver - Nadal has always shown up for the clay-court season and always done well. It's after that each season that's so problematical. Not sure anyone's been top for a whole calendar year since Fed did it in 07 (and 06 and 05....)