Races within the Race

First topic message reminder :

As we head into the penultimate Masters tournament of the year, all the talk on the race (certainly from a British media perspective) is of who will be the elite 8 who qualify for the World Tour Finals in London.

However what other stories are lurking in the race?

1 Novak Djokovic 8660
2 Roger Federer 7030
3 Rafael Nadal 6745
4 Stan Wawrinka 4805
5 Kei Nishikori 4265
6 Marin Cilic 3990
7 Tomas Berdych 3775
8 Milos Raonic 3735
9 Andy Murray 3575
10 David Ferrer 3545
11 Grigor Dimitrov 3415
12 Jo Wilfried Tsonga 2650
13 Ernests Gulbis 2455
14 Roberto Bautista Agut 1845
15 John Isner 1800
16 Kevin Anderson 1795
17 Fabio Fognini 1780
18 Tommy Robredo 1715
19 Gael Monfils 1710
20 Feliciano Lopez 1665

Year End Number One:
Unless Wawrinka won every event from now to the WTF, he's out of the running so the contenders are:
1 Novak Djokovic 8660
2 Roger Federer 7030
3 Rafael Nadal 6745
A win in Shanghai would put him about 2300 in the lead, and given Nadal's indoor record and Federer's focus on the Davis Cup, that would virtually guarantee the YE#1. Nadal's best chance if Djokovic going out early here and losing focus in the final few weeks with the arrival of his baby.

Second seeding
Almost a subset of the race to YE#1, who will be in prime spot for the second seed at the WTF and onto the Aus Open? It's certainly Federer's best chance at a slam to have Djokovic and Nadal drawn into the opposite half (although obviously he's more subseptible to losing to many others now). The most likely scenario for Federer to finish in the top 2 is for Nadal to continue his form from Beijing and not get any confidence or momentum going.

Fourth seeding
Fourth position is important as they only has to play one of the big 3 in the RR stage of the WTF and get their own quarter at the Aus Open. At the moment the most likely contenders are:
4 Stan Wawrinka 4805
5 Kei Nishikori 4265
6 Marin Cilic 3990
(although a deep run at either Masters could bring others in the equation).
I'm not sure about Cilic as his Masters record has never been great, and Nishikori may well tire or break down soon, so I think despite his recent poor form, Wawrinka will clinch it.

Top 12
Again, all about preferential seeding by avoiding the top 4 in the R16 at the Aus Open. Likely contenders:
11 Grigor Dimitrov 3415
12 Jo Wilfried Tsonga 2650
13 Ernests Gulbis 2455
Amazingly, given there is just over 500 points between 6th and 11th in the race, there is nearly 1000 between 11th and 13th.Dimitrov has a nice lead over the injured Tsonga and eratic Gulbis. I suspect that Gulbis will overtake Tsonga in his absense and take the 12th position.

Of course, there are similar stories further down the race, particularly around the thirties and who gets the protection of a seeding at all. And smaller gaps mean that the first week of the season could have a big effect on seedings for the Aus Open.

Any other mini battles interest you in the race? Do you see anyone making a big move?

biugo wrote:My wishlist to make a thrilling WTF for the #1 spot:

Scenario 1:
- Federer winning Basel and losing to Djoko in Paris final
That would put Federer 890pts behind Djoko in the race
- Djoko and Fed to go through to WTF SF with the same amount of match wins
If Djoko wins his SF, he secures #1, if he loses Fed needs to win the WTF to overpass Djoko by..10 pts!
(in that sense I'd love if they both win 2 RR and face each other in the SF, big stakes!! and to add to the story, why not Nadal in the final (less likely nowadays) - so let's say Cilic or Nishi or Dimi, who would eventually beat Fed in their way to take over the old generation!    )

Scenario 2:
- Fed winning both Basel and Paris, defeating Djoko in the Final (less likely to happen than first scenario - but in another way, it works also if Fed gets one step further than Djoko in Paris).
Fed would then be 90 pts behind Djoko in the race
- Then I'd love both to face in the final: final match of the season and the winner is YE#1! That would be thrilling to watch for fans of both sides!

Note that in this scenario 2, it remains similar regardless of match wins in RR. Fed could also only reach the final of Basel and have only 2RR, and the YE#1 would remain at stake in a hypotetical final (being just 490 pts behind Djoko)
Well, it works as long as there is less than 500 points between them going into the final.

Other scenarii are more complex so less enjoyable (like defeats in semis etc.)
Let's have scenario 2 to get everybody glued to the WTF Final!

Or something even less likely, but that would be fun for Tennis history:

Fed: 8020 + Basel QF 90pts / Paris SF 360 / WTF W 1500 / Total 9960
Djoko: 9010 + Paris SF 360 / WTF SF 600 / Total 9960
And Fed not winning a Davis Cup match.  

Or

Fed: 8020 + Basel 500 + Paris 1000 + WTF F (3RR) 1000 / DC 150 / Total 10670
Djo: 9010 + Paris 360 + WTF W (2RR) 1300 / Total 10670

Or

Fed: Basel 45, Paris 360, WTF 1000 and one win in DC 75 (not playing match 2 ) 9500
Djoko: Paris 90, WTF 400 : 9500

(In these 3 cases would Djoko be crowned #1 thanks to his GS win?)

Today
1Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 9,010
2Federer, Roger (SUI) 8,020
3Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 6,745
4Wawrinka, Stan (SUI) 4,805
5Nishikori, Kei (JPN) 4,265
6 Cilic, Marin (CRO) 3,990
7 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 3,945
8 Raonic, Milos (CAN) 3,750
9 Ferrer, David (ESP) 3,715
10 Murray, Andy (GBR) 3,655
11 Dimitrov, Grigor (BUL) 3,450
12 Tsonga, Jo-Wilfried (FRA) 2,650

Race for 1: Nadal is out of it and looks like he doesn't have much chance for top 2 either.
Qualification for WTF: Warwinka is mathematically certain to qualify, while Nishikori looks likely.
6-11 is quite an even battle, but Dimitrov needs to get some serious points on the board, probably needing to reach finals perhaps so could be a long shot.
Looks like Tsonga will miss out this year.

Also, Federer is in with a very good chance of a top 2 seeding at the Australian Open.

Stan has been confirmed as a qualifier HB.

I know, that's why I said what I said.

You didn't think I'd actually done the maths for myself did you? Now that must be horrendous calculation.

retract the claws. I was just going off the atp website.

As reported by IB3, Rafa will play Basel (totally certain) & Paris (likely, but not certain), while WTF is almost certain to be ruled out. The main doubt is when the appendectomy surgery will take place. As of now, the possible dates are before or after the M1000 of Paris Bercy. If before, Rafa wouldn’t play in Paris, while he would if the surgery is delayed till the first days of November, at the latest, as this is the only way to ensure that he starts 2015 fully recovered.

He’s currently w/o symptoms & feeling OK (just a bit low in defenses) after 2 days without taking antibiotics. He has the OK from the doctors to play. No big expectations, he’ll just try his best (difficult tournies anyway).

Rafa will head to Basel today, but first he’ll stop in Cannes where he has a commercial commitment this evening.

Did he say he wouldn't play at the WTF HN? Would be a shame if he didn't play

It would seem madness to play Basel if not fully fit. Why can he not have the surgery now to give max chance of making Paris and London?

Born Slippy wrote:It would seem madness to play Basel if not fully fit. Why can he not have the surgery now to give max chance of making Paris and London?

It's a big operation which you aren't going to recover from in 2 weeks.

In hindsight he would have been far better having the operation during Shanghai Masters week and then he would definitely been fine for the WTF.

Indeed CC. And if he's certain to miss the WTF, I would agree with BS that playing Basel doesn't seem productive.
What would be his goal entering this tournament?
- to see how he feels and prepare for a potential Paris MS (but with a big question mark on the operation?
- to rack up a measly 500 pts tops? (not a lot for a player like Nadal)
- try and beat Roger on his homeground to keep on having the edge on him next year?

My opinion would be that if he's sure to do the operation (is he?) in the coming weeks, better do it now and have the most time possible to prepare the beginning of 2015, especially as he might be looking at 500 pts with a question mark on the next 1000...

In any case, it's too bad that he got that right after coming back from some timee off... In general, I'm considering any excuse for injuries that might be part of the effort or long term conditions (like Rafa's knees or Fed's back), but sickness related time off is really bad luck. So I feel for Rafa on this occasion.

On a ranking topic, AO2015 will be very interesting again:
- we're back to a Big 3 more or less, so Fed and Djoko will jinx each other for Rafa's side
- if Stan keeps hiss rank, we'll have the on song players in 4-8 spots, making QF threat to the top 3
- Someone could win the title beating Andy, Rafa, Fed and Djoko! That would be impressive

On the down side, the draw could end up very lopsided (at first)

Haddie-nuff wrote:    As reported by IB3, Rafa will play Basel (totally certain) & Paris (likely, but not certain), while WTF is almost certain to be ruled out. The main doubt is when the appendectomy surgery will take place. As of now, the possible dates are before or after the M1000 of Paris Bercy. If before, Rafa wouldn’t play in Paris, while he would if the surgery is delayed till the first days of November, at the latest, as this is the only way to ensure that he starts 2015 fully recovered.

   He’s currently w/o symptoms & feeling OK (just a bit low in defenses) after 2 days without taking antibiotics. He has the OK from the doctors to play. No big expectations, he’ll just try his best (difficult tournies anyway).

   Rafa will head to Basel today, but first he’ll stop in Cannes where he has a commercial commitment this evening.

I believe Nadal's team has said that the IB3 report is incorrect. The WTF has not been ruled out but is doubtful. He's going to see how he plays in Basel, consult with his doctors and decide on Paris then if he plays in Paris decide what to do then. From what has been said he is symptom free and the condition is under control but of course he will have to be monitored to ensure that it remains under control. The best scene would be if he can play until the end of the season and have surgery if need be after the WTF.

I believe Djokovic is now only scheduled to play Paris and the WTF. I wonder if he will miss one of these events or possible them both. Their baby is due soon and Paris is only a week away. Then just one week off before the WTF. If it's born any time in the next few weeks it would be difficult to take much time away and play both events.

Also he's not in the best form and that may impact on any decision. It's one thing to take time away from his family with a good chance to win but quite another to miss time and lose.

http://www.nadalnews.com/2014/10/15/the-state-of-the-appendix/

Haddie-nuff wrote:http://www.nadalnews.com/2014/10/15/the-state-of-the-appendix/

I really find that decision bizarre to say the least. He is playing in Masters events and ATP500 events that he could have missed and had the surgery allowing him to compete in the WTF easily but has opted to miss the WTF to play is lesser tournies instead.

^ Are you a doctor or a surgeon? Do you have access to his medical notes? If not then how can you judge what tournaments he is able to play and when he should have surgery.

I also find it bizarre that you expect him to be able to have surgery now and then "easily" compete in the WTF in a couple of weeks.

None of us here are doctors but it has been common knowledge he needs an operation yet has chosen to put it off apparently. You may be right that once he has had the operation he would need a month before even contemplating playing again but again we don't know that to be the case as, again, we are not doctors.

So you think he should be having surgery based on common knowledge? Common knowledge of who? Tennis fans common knowledge? I think he's being sensible to choose to take medical advice instead

I just find it odd (given recent form) he is busting a gut (no pun intended) to play on instead of getting the surgery done as soon as possible so that it is given as long as possible to heal. I mean if he is ruling out the WTF he would be better getting surgery now and so he can prepare for next year with no worries about post-surgery aaffecting him. He does not need the points in any case and with appendicitis is it likely he will win these routines he is opting to play in anyway??

We don't know if he is ruling out the WTF. He has said that ideally he would like to have surgery after the WTF and then he would have plenty of time to recover prior to Australia. But of course he will listen to his doctors and have it earlier if necessary. From what I've heard his condition is under control at the moment so why not play a few matches and keep to his original schedule? Don't worry I'm sure he's doing the best thing for him.

In that link posted by Haddie-nuff it says the WTF has almost certainly been ruled out. And like I said either he isn't in any physical shape with appendicitis to be competitive in these next two tournies (going by his showing in Shanghai) so why bother? Get the surgery done now and gives him maximum recovery time for next season. That would be the logical decision would it not?

Andy Murray beats Vasek Pospisil 6-4 6-4 in Vienna to go through to the quarter-finals. With Raonic losing in Moscow it means Andy nibbles away at Raonic lead. David Ferrer also won today in Vienna in straight sets and looks a fair bet to overtake Raonic in the race come the end of the week.

I know someone who had his appendix whacked out. He couldn't get up stairs for a week.

"That's right up my alley. I wrote the book on the appendix. I even wrote the appendix, but they took that out."

By my calculations only if Andy wins the Erste Bank Open in Vienna will he be guaranteed to break into the top eight in the race to London. If he reaches the semis or final but Ferrer wins the tournament he will move into ninth above Raonic in the race to London.

He needs to make the final to overtake Raonic.

The Race to London is (wisely .... ) based on points earned rather than my personal sentiment ; but I would soooo much rather see Murray making it to the O2 than Raonic .....

Born Slippy wrote:He needs to make the final to overtake Raonic.

Ah yes semi exit would leave him level on points with Raonic. I was forgetting the 20 points Raonic earned in Moscow.

What happens if, say, #8, 9 and 10 are level on points in the Race?
And what about #1 and 2?

ATP rulebook -

Ties. When two or more players have the same total number of points, ties shall be
broken as follows:
1) the most total points from the Grand Slams, ATP World Tour Masters 1000 mandatory
tournaments and Barclays ATP World Tour Finals main draws, and if still
tied, then,
2) the fewest events played, counting all missed Grand Slams, ATP World Tour
Masters 1000 tournaments and Barclays ATP World Tour Finals they could have
played (as described under A. above) as if played, and if still tied, then,
3) the highest number of points from one single tournament, then, if needed, the
second highest, and so on.

Thanks Julius!

So, into the last 2 weeks before the WTF still 1500 points up for grabs, but some clear favourites emerging in some of the mini battles:

For #1 & #2
1 Novak Djokovic 9010
2 Roger Federer 8020
3 Rafael Nadal 6745
Could be close for #1 depending on Djokovic's focus. But Federer has a clear advantage over Nadal of being healthy and in good form so should hold on to #2 for the year end.

For #4
4 Stan Wawrinka 4805
5 Kei Nishikori 4265
6 Marin Cilic 4150
7 Tomas Berdych 4105
With Nishikori and Cilic not playing this week, Wawrinka looking safer. His form is Asia was dire but he's more rested than those chasing qualification so I think he'll hold them off til year end.

For #12
12 Jo Wilfried Tsonga 2650
13 Ernests Gulbis 2455
It would take some extreme results for Dimitrov to drop out of the top 12, so it's between Gulbis and Tsonga, but Tsonga still not playing this week so advantage Gulbis.

The Race to London too close to call between Murray, Ferrer and Raonic. If Raonic has recovered, I still think he's in a good position - not played for weeks on end like his rivals and also doesn't have any countables that he's replacing this week whereas Murray and Ferrer both have a lowest countable of 90 so are more limited in what they can gain.

Good on Fed for keeping the race to #1 alive here..it may even come down to a single match to decide it which could be the semi of the WTF as well as the final.
I just read Nadal confirmed today end of season. So Fed will be ranked in the top 2 until (and including) the Australian open - at least.

Looking at the rankings it seems extremely likely Nadal will be seeded 3 at the AO if anyone's interested. Assuming all of the top 3 are fit that is. Stan Warwinka without his AO points would be 12th instead of 4th.

With Rafa ending his season officially, and given some of the results, the race for the 8 spots in LDN has all of a sudden crystalized.

Andy is now very likely in (even if he loses both tomorrow and his opener in Paris, I would give him at least around 50% chance of qualifying), and Dimi is now very likely out.  If David wins tomorrow, he will also be likely in.  If David loses, than Raonic and David will likely fight it out for the last available spot.

For all the changes, new faces coming through, new guys winning slams, we could still end up with the YE top 4 consisting of Roger, Rafa, Nole and Andy.

summerblues wrote:For all the changes, new faces coming through, new guys winning slams, we could still end up with the YE top 4 consisting of Roger, Rafa, Nole and Andy.

Surely not .....?

You mean to say that despite new Slam champs and the younger generation making headway, these familiar four (including that old geezer Federer) could again be holding down the top spots at year-end ?? ...

But they were all ranked within the top four back in September.

er .......September 2008 that is ...........  

Plus ca change .....

Federer goes into Paris 490 behind Djokovic in the race but further behind in the rankings.

I'm guessing that if Fed gains more than that on Nole in the upcoming event he will be #2 leaving Paris but #1 entering London, as the WTF points come off before the event.

Is that right?

I believe you are right.  But gaining more than 490 on Nole will be hard.  In fact, even keeping up with Nole may be hard, but Fed may have to do that.  If Nole wins Paris, the race is probably effectively over.  Nole would have 890 point lead and even a mediocre result in London would be enough to keep him ahead.

Ah, but I see what you mean.....

And Djokovic doesn't have the kindest draw in Paris. A very early exit would leave Federer just needing to make the final for 600 points.

With a 890 point lead over Fed entering WTF, Fed would need to win the WTF with Djoko not reaching the final - unlikely of course, but weirder things have happened (with Cilic and Nishikori, some recent ghosts might be back... And I'd actually suspect Cilic to reach the Final, if not kicked away by Murray first)

About the points drop, I've read on ATP that the WTF points are dropped after the last tournament of the year (i.e. not following the usual 52 weeks life span).Hence, if Fed gains over 490 points on Nole next week, he'd be #1 on Nov 3rd.

But to do that, he'll need an upset for Djoko and to win Paris (or reach the final, if it's a big upset)

So, we should have a very interesting QF Djoko-Murray: Murray's getting back on track and a Murray is exactly what Fed needs!

some points counting if Murray defeats Djoko in QF:
- Djoko 9190
- Fed W: 9520
- Fed F: 9120 - only 70pts behing Djoko - should they gain the same amount at WTF (both losing in SF, for example, as a remake of USO), then Fed could snitch YE#1 winning his DC tie (75pts) Now that would bring some big talk on the forum!

But I do not see Nole exiting early.  I think he will try to get to #1 for YE and he knows that if he exits early AND Roger wins the title, the thing could get too far out of his control - even a title in London might not be enough to guarantee YE #1.

So I think Nole will try his best to go deep.

Also, I expect Andy will not try too hard in Paris, making Nole's draw easier.  Andy will probably know by then he is qualified for WTF and with Paris being his 6th consecutive week of tennis, I can see him taking it easy to recover for WTF.

summerblues wrote:Also, I expect Andy will not try too hard in Paris, making Nole's draw easier.  Andy will probably know by then he is qualified for WTF and with Paris being his 6th consecutive week of tennis, I can see him taking it easy to recover for WTF.

I am not so sure about that. In recent weeks Andy has spoken about the importance of climbing back up the rankings and I think by the year's end he will have wanted to at least get back into the top eight and so to do that he needs strong showings for the rest of the season.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

summerblues wrote:Also, I expect Andy will not try too hard in Paris, making Nole's draw easier.  Andy will probably know by then he is qualified for WTF and with Paris being his 6th consecutive week of tennis, I can see him taking it easy to recover for WTF.

I am not so sure about that. In recent weeks Andy has spoken about the importance of climbing back up the rankings and I think by the year's end he will have wanted to at least get back into the top eight and so to do that he needs strong showings for the rest of the season.

And he can see the #4 spot now, as much as Roger sees the #1, which I would think he'd like to get after WTF for a nicer start in 2015...

biugo wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

summerblues wrote:Also, I expect Andy will not try too hard in Paris, making Nole's draw easier.  Andy will probably know by then he is qualified for WTF and with Paris being his 6th consecutive week of tennis, I can see him taking it easy to recover for WTF.

I am not so sure about that. In recent weeks Andy has spoken about the importance of climbing back up the rankings and I think by the year's end he will have wanted to at least get back into the top eight and so to do that he needs strong showings for the rest of the season.

And he can see the #4 spot now, as much as Roger sees the #1, which I would think he'd like to get after WTF for a nicer start in 2015...

Exactly. He'd sooner eliminate the possibility of facing the likes of a Novak as early as QF's and he can only do that by climbing back into the top four.