Aviva Premiership Round Six

by **Ozzy3213** Mon Oct 06, 2014 1:59 pm

So round five produced yet more excitement as what is shaping up to be a great season continued at a pace. On Friday night Bath Rugby laid down another marker, ending Saracens unbeaten start to the season at The Rec, and temporarily put themselves back at the top of the table. Saturdays games saw Quins get back on track, nilling a hapless Welsh side who look to be relegated, even this early in the season, Saints edged out Irish in a tight affair were defences were on top, and Gloucester heaped more misery on Tigers with a comfortable win at Kingsholm. Sundays offering saw Sale Sharks get one over on Wasps, to keep the middle of the table tight, and Newcastle ended their 20 game losing streak by beating high flying Exeter Chiefs at Kingston Park.

Predictions wise, it was 5 from 6 for me this week on here, with Tigers letting me down. I was only 4 from 6 elsewhere (the bookies) as I can't bet against my own team!

So here's the table after round 5;-

POS	TEAM	P	W	D	L	PF	PA	DIFF	TF	TA	TBP	LBP	PTS
1.	Northampton Saints	5	4	0	1	154	72	+82	18	6	3	1	20
2.	Bath Rugby	5	4	0	1	172	88	+84	19	11	2	1	19
3.	Saracens	5	4	0	1	160	100	+60	15	12	2	0	18
4.	Exeter Chiefs	5	3	0	2	157	88	+69	16	9	1	2	15
5.	Gloucester	5	3	0	2	141	131	+10	15	15	1	1	14
6.	Harlequins	5	3	0	2	111	113	-2	12	9	1	0	13
7.	London Irish	5	2	0	3	101	112	-11	7	10	1	3	12
8.	Sale Sharks	5	2	0	3	137	125	+12	18	12	2	1	11
9	Wasps	5	2	0	3	120	119	+1	14	12	1	2	11
10.	Leicester Tigers	5	2	0	3	95	137	-42	8	13	1	1	10
11.	Newcastle Falcons	5	1	0	4	92	150	-58	11	17	0	1	5
12.	London Welsh	5	0	0	5	44	249	-205	6	33	1	0	1

On to this weeks fixtures;-

Friday 10th October 2014 19:45 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins

Back at Welford Road after three straight defeats, Tigers will be desperate to win this one, but will need to be a whole lot better than they were against Gloucester to do so. Quins will be buoyed by their nilling of Welsh, but that result will have little bearing on this game in reality. It's not easy to call this one, but I can't see Tigers losing a second one on the bounce at home, so am going for a Tigers win with a Quins losing bonus point in a scrappy game.

Saturday 11th October 2014 14:30 London Welsh vs. Newcastle Falcons

This is seriously must win for Welsh, even at this early stage of the season. Falcons are now up and running after beating the Chiefs, and if they can back that up this weekend with another win there will be clear daylight between themselves and Welsh, and it's tough to see where Welsh will make up the points at this stage. Having said that, Welsh will know that this is it, they have to step up now. They will need to keep in the game against a Falcons side that will come with renewed confidence, and will have to close things out better. I can't see it. For Falcons fans this one will be like London buses, you wait forever for one and then two come along at once.

Saturday 11th October 2014 15:00 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish

Two sides off the back of defeats last week and both will be keen to finish this block of Premiership games on a high. Both had plenty of the ball at the weekend but couldn't quite get the job done, and whoever is going to win this one will need to be more clinical. On paper the sides are evenly matched and both have exceeded most peoples pre season expectations of them. I can't quantify why really, but I just fancy us to win this one, will be tight though and I expect the Chiefs to be within 7 at the death.

Saturday 11th October 2014 15:00 Saracens vs. Gloucester

Gloucester have been really up and down this season, but have picked up a couple of good wins on the way. Saracens I don't think have really hit top gear yet, but have had too much for everyone bar an in form Bath last week. Back at Allianz Park, they won't want to lose two on the bounce, and I don't think Gloucester are yet in a place to go there and beat them. I think Saracens will go up a notch in preparation for their European game the following week, and will send Gloucester back west with nothing, whilst notching up a try bonus point themselves.

Saturday 11th October 2014 15:15 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks

Sale had a good win yesterday, but Saints are a whole different prospect to Wasps and this will be a much tougher proposition for them. Saints don't lose many at the Gardens and will want to consolidate their position at the top of the table with another win before the European break. Sale will need their pack to give them a platform and if they do, then in Danny Cipriani they have a 10 who could pull of a win for them. Sadly for them, I see the Saints pack dominating, and if that happens they will win this one comfortably, and with bonus point.

Sunday 12th October 2014 14:00 Wasps vs. Bath Rugby

Bath are flying high right now, and will fancy picking up an away win here. In Ford, Eastmond and Joseph they have the in form 10-12-13 combination in the league, if not the northern hemisphere. Wasps don't quite seem to know what their best back line is just yet, and as shown yesterday, their biggest weapons can also be their biggest weaknesses, as we saw with Christian Wade scoring a great try, but also handing Sale one on a plate. If they make errors defensively like that against Bath they'll get punished. This looks a high scorer to me, possibly 5 points for Bath, and 2 for Wasps.

Ozzy's predicted table after round 6;-

Northampton Saints 25, Bath Rugby 24, Saracens 23, Exeter Chiefs 16, London Irish 16, Gloucester 14, Harlequins 14, Leicester Tigers 14, Wasps 13, Sale Sharks 11, Newcastle Falcons 10, London Welsh 1.

by Welly Mon Oct 06, 2014 2:13 pm

Didn't you say that you couldn't see Leicester losing 3 on the bounce.

TBH I have given trying to guess the team, If Williams can start 10 and someone else at 12 I feel we may have a chance.

Personally would like to see (if Tait is out and no one returns).

1) Rizzo, 2) Ghilrandi, 3) Balmain
4) Thorn, 5) Kitchener
6) Gibson, 7) Salvi, 8) Crane
9) Mele, 10) Williams
12) Harrison (I wouldn't mind seeing this tbh), 13) Goneva
11) Benjamin, 14) Smith, 15) Scully

16) Briggs, 17) Bristow, 18) Pascquali
19) De Cheves, 20) Pearce
21) Youngs, 22) Burns, 23) Bell

by **LondonTiger** Mon Oct 06, 2014 2:14 pm

Quins have won their last 3 regular season AP visits to Welford Road. (We did win the 2013 Play-off Semi). I absolutely expect that record to be extended to four wins.

by **Ozzy3213** Mon Oct 06, 2014 2:25 pm

I don't think I've ever seen Tigers fans so despondent about their teams chances of winning a game.

by Welly Mon Oct 06, 2014 2:26 pm

Ozzy3213 wrote:I don't think I've ever seen Tigers fans so despondent about their teams chances of winning a game.

Nah they're always the underdogs for me.

by SirBurger Mon Oct 06, 2014 2:35 pm

Ozzy - I think we will struggle down in Exeter sadly. The Chiefs will be much better than they were against Newcastle and although we will naturally be fired up as well, I think the previous rounds have taken it out of us a bit. Like BS has said, the likes of Cowan are shattered. Skivington has played every minute and Paice is there or thereabouts. I think we look like we need the European break now and I expect Chiefs to take all 4 and I think we will struggle to take the BP.

by **Ozzy3213** Mon Oct 06, 2014 2:37 pm

I can see a few changes for the trip to be honest, with Aulika, Skivs and Cowan all getting rests and being replaced by Cross, Leo and big Trev. I don't think that weakens us massively, and I expect us to get something from the game at the very least. I also think we'll draw on having won both our away games so far, and I genuinely fancy us for this one.

by TightHEAD Mon Oct 06, 2014 3:16 pm

Ozzy3213 wrote:I don't think I've ever seen Tigers fans so despondent about their teams chances of winning a game.

Happy days. Very Happy

by doctor_grey Mon Oct 06, 2014 3:48 pm

Ozzy3213 wrote:I don't think I've ever seen Tigers fans so despondent about their teams chances of winning a game.

But we all know what happens in the bowels of Welford Road. Leicester will cook up something, players will get healthy and they will put on a run from hell later in the season. They always do.

by **Ozzy3213** Mon Oct 06, 2014 3:53 pm

Ozzy3213 wrote:
Ozzy's predicted table after round 6;-

Northampton Saints 25, Bath Rugby 24, Saracens 23, Exeter Chiefs 16, London Irish 16, Gloucester 14, Harlequins 14, Leicester Tigers 14, Wasps 13, Sale Sharks 11, Newcastle Falcons 10, London Welsh 1.

Here's a separate question. If the table does end up as I have predicted it will after round 6, who would be happy with where their team is sat and their points haul?

From a London Irish perspective, I will be overjoyed. Even if we only pick up the LBP and end up on 13 points I will be happy, as there were those, both Irish supporters and supporters of other teams who before the season began questioned whether we would even have a point at this stage. Even the real optimists were only giving us 6 or 7 points at best.

by doctor_grey Mon Oct 06, 2014 3:54 pm

Ozzy3213 wrote:
Ozzy3213 wrote:
Ozzy's predicted table after round 6;-

Northampton Saints 25, Bath Rugby 24, Saracens 23, Exeter Chiefs 16, London Irish 16, Gloucester 14, Harlequins 14, Leicester Tigers 14, Wasps 13, Sale Sharks 11, Newcastle Falcons 10, London Welsh 1.

Here's a separate question. If the table does end up as I have predicted it will after round 6, who would be happy with their team is sat and their points haul?

From a London Irish perspective, I will be overjoyed. Even if we only pick up the LBP and end up in 13 I will be happy, as there were those, both Irish supporters and supporters of other teams who before the season began questioned whether we would even have a point at this stage. Even the real optimists were only giving us 6 or 7 points at best.

Me. (no kidding, eh?)

by **Ozzy3213** Mon Oct 06, 2014 3:57 pm

I'd hazard a guess at:-

Saints - happy
Bath - happy
Saracens - happy
Chiefs - very happy
Irish - ecstatic
Gloucester - happy
Quins - disappointed
Tigers - Very unhappy
Wasps- disappointed
Sale - unhappy
Falcons - happy
Welsh - just pleased to be here

by **LondonTiger** Mon Oct 06, 2014 4:01 pm

I would be happy with 8th and 14 points, as I fear 11th and 10pts.

by Geordie Mon Oct 06, 2014 4:04 pm

I would hope we have enough to beat Welsh.

The win will have given us a huge boost...and relief.

But ive said before...i dont want to stay up simply becuase another side was far worse than us...as happened last year. I want to stay up because we have beaten some sides, and tried to play good rugby.

We shall see.

by doctor_grey Mon Oct 06, 2014 4:38 pm

Ozzy3213 wrote:I'd hazard a guess at:-

Saints - happy
Bath - happy
Saracens - happy
Chiefs - very happy
Irish - ecstatic
Gloucester - happy
Quins - disappointed
Tigers - Very unhappy
Wasps- disappointed
Sale - unhappy
Falcons - happy
Welsh - just pleased to be here

Ozzy,
Not sure Chiefs fans would be happy after yesterday. I think that was a game they would have gone into fairly confident they would win. Rightfully, their expectations are pretty high.
I'd guess that Saints supporters, Bath supporters and Sarries supporters are reasonably happy, but would have expected just a wee bit more from their teams. Exactly as you said 'happy' v. 'very happy'.

by **Ozzy3213** Mon Oct 06, 2014 4:48 pm

I think given pre season predictions Chiefs would be happy. You are right thought that they might be disappointed given that if this table comes to pass they'll have lost back to back games against Falcons and us.

by **George Carlin** Mon Oct 06, 2014 5:29 pm

These are great threads, Ozzy.

It's looking increasingly like the first game of the ERC Pool 4 on 18 October is going to involve the first placed team in the Jeff playing the first placed team in the Pro 12. Boom.

by doctor_grey Mon Oct 06, 2014 5:58 pm

George Carlin wrote:These are great threads, Ozzy.

It's looking increasingly like the first game of the ERC Pool 4 on 18 October is going to involve the first placed team in the Jeff playing the first placed team in the Pro 12. Boom.

Hiya George!
if you are right, which I hope you are, that would be a great kickoff for the Euro Championship. Great hype, great lead-in, great advertising. Hopefully the games match the hype.

by **LondonTiger** Mon Oct 06, 2014 6:17 pm

George Carlin wrote:These are great threads, Ozzy.

It's looking increasingly like the first game of the ERC Pool 4 on 18 October is going to involve the first placed team in the Jeff playing the first placed team in the Pro 12. Boom.

Far more likely though that neither team will be topping their respective leagues.

Northampton much more likely to be topping the AP, while Glasgow will need to win at Ravenhill to be topping Pro12.

by **George Carlin** Mon Oct 06, 2014 6:40 pm

LondonTiger wrote:
George Carlin wrote:These are great threads, Ozzy.

It's looking increasingly like the first game of the ERC Pool 4 on 18 October is going to involve the first placed team in the Jeff playing the first placed team in the Pro 12. Boom.

Far more likely though that neither team will be topping their respective leagues.

Northampton much more likely to be topping the AP, while Glasgow will need to win at Ravenhill to be topping Pro12.

Well, Glasgow beat them home and away last season so I'm not too scared at the prospect. I guess just Glasgow top, then... Wink

by Bathman_in_London Tue Oct 07, 2014 9:58 am

As a Bath fan I am happy, the shackles seem to be off at the moment (with the exception of the first 50 mins against Saints) and forwards are playing really well. I honestly thought we would get 3 points from the Tigers/Saints/Sarries run of games, so to get 10 is a very good return. Of course the downside is we are more likely to lose players to England now...

I would think Wasps fans must be pretty disappointed with how the season has started? Mind you, there is only 1 win between 10th and 5th, so it could all change very quickly and there is plenty of the season to go.

by stnick88 Tue Oct 07, 2014 5:17 pm

Ozzy i cant see us winning at sandy park. Infact cant see us getting a lbp. Think this will be our biggest loss of the season to date.

by **Ozzy3213** Tue Oct 07, 2014 5:29 pm

Any particular reason as to why Nick? We've been close in every game so far, why would we suddenly not be this weekend?

by SirBurger Tue Oct 07, 2014 5:32 pm

Arguably, Exeter away from home is our toughest fixture yet, factoring in form and the home advantage we had over Sarries and Saints. Plus, we always seem to underperform against Exeter.

by **Ozzy3213** Tue Oct 07, 2014 5:38 pm

I don't buy that at all. Saracens and Saints are considerably stronger sides than Exeter, so I don't see how this can be a tougher fixture, even away from home. Bear in mind also, we've won both our away games so far as well. Yes, we've been shoite against the Chiefs the last couple of seasons, but let's been honest, we've been pretty shoite overall in that period, and the same can't be said for this season so far.

Man for man, the two teams are pretty even on paper, and this will come down to organisation, the team being more than the sum of it's parts and who executes on the day. We are far more capable of doing that than we have been for the past two seasons. We may lose, as Exeter may be better than us on the day, but I'm struggling to understand the negativity towards our chances in this game to be honest.

by SirBurger Tue Oct 07, 2014 5:50 pm

You know I back BS and Glenn and the players, but traditionally we tend to do badly at the back-end of a block of fixtures. The same thing happened last year when we went to Exeter after three good performances against Sarries, Wasps and Leicester.

I would love to be proved wrong and it isn't an indication of the progress I think this side is making but I'm just not feeling that confident. Sometimes it just comes down to a gut feeling...a bit like how my gut said we would beat Northampton. Let's hope for the same effect!

by **Ozzy3213** Tue Oct 07, 2014 5:59 pm

SirBurger wrote:You know I back BS and Glenn and the players, but traditionally we tend to do badly at the back-end of a block of fixtures. The same thing happened last year when we went to Exeter after three good performances against Sarries, Wasps and Leicester.

I would love to be proved wrong and it isn't an indication of the progress I think this side is making but I'm just not feeling that confident. Sometimes it just comes down to a gut feeling...a bit like how my gut said we would beat Northampton. Let's hope for the same effect!

Here's hoping mate. Laugh

by stnick88 Tue Oct 07, 2014 7:00 pm

Exactly my thoughts burger.

Just got a bad feeling pete. Hope to be proved wrong.

by **Ozzy3213** Tue Oct 07, 2014 8:43 pm

I would like to see us freshen up in the pack a bit this week, as I do think we might just need a bit of renewed energy, and as has been said before we have one or two guys who've played almost every minute of the season so far.

I'd go with Court, Paice, Cross, Sinclair, Leo, Narraway, Cowan, Guest as the starting pack, with Ellis, Parr, Aulika, Skivs, Trev off the bench.

by yappysnap Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:56 am

Nervous about the Tigers game, as much as my head tells me we're in a great position to get the win, and the Tiggers fans keep talking their team down I just can't believe it. Someone is going to feel a backlash and with our limp scrum and light weight forwards it may be us, especially if they get a few more players back.

Still can't wait for Friday and listening to Cockers roll out the injury list again, great stuff!

by **George Carlin** Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:44 am

Completely weird seeing Tigers 10th in the table.

by **LondonTiger** Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:51 am

We were 11th this time 3 years ago. However then the table was misleading as we had a pile of players ready to come back en-mass at the end of RWC.

by Bathite Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:43 am

Yeah I remember and you still came 3rd or 4th didn't you. Awesome effort

by **Ozzy3213** Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:58 am

The thing is with this season is that only 5 points separate the 7 places between 4th and 10th. Whilst it has been a difficult start for Leicester, they're not that far behind and there is plenty of time left in the season to put a run together and make the play offs.

by **George Carlin** Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:26 am

Just wait until big Brad Thorn shakes off the injury and pulls on the stripes: Aviva Premiership Round Six Worshi12

by Bathman_in_London Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:39 am

I thought he did already?!

by Welly Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:40 am

Ayerza is back looks like he will play Friday. angel

by yappysnap Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:50 am

by yappysnap Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:53 am

Prepare to see last season's leading try scorer roll out for Leicester then... Mr P. Try! He might even bag a brace this weekend such is our weakness in the scrum and lineout. Crying or Very sad

by **Ozzy3213** Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:02 pm

What's the craic with the Quins front 5 this season. They were solid enough last year with the whole front row touted as England internationals.

by Geordie Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:04 pm

Ayerza coming back is a big deal for Tigers...the guys an animal.

Whats the crack on Matera? (the young but very large Argentinan back rower) who got injured in the championship...how longs he out for.

by Welly Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:47 pm

GeordieFalcon wrote:Ayerza coming back is a big deal for Tigers...the guys an animal.

Whats the crack on Matera? (the young but very large Argentinan back rower) who got injured in the championship...how longs he out for.

depends on how the surgery goes could be back end of November.

but heard February as the likely date.

by yappysnap Wed Oct 08, 2014 3:27 pm

Ozzy3213 wrote:What's the craic with the Quins front 5 this season. They were solid enough last year with the whole front row touted as England internationals.

Last year was over exuberance on the part of some fans Ozzy! Our front 5 is designed to be mobile, so Gray and Ward are both underpowered in the scrum but good around the park. Marler is struggling under the responsibility of being captain too which doesn't help bit the real problem is Synckler on the other side seems to be really struggling getting low and binding, he's getting done a lot which makes him angry so he then messes up more. Collier his replacement I've never been a fan of, he's a journeyman to me.

by Sgt_Pooly Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:04 pm

Ozzy3213 wrote:I'd hazard a guess at:-

Saints - happy
Bath - happy
Saracens - happy
Chiefs - very happy
Irish - ecstatic
Gloucester - happy
Quins - disappointed
Tigers - Very unhappy
Wasps- disappointed
Sale - unhappy
Falcons - happy
Welsh - just pleased to be here

As a Falcons fan I'd say happy-ish.

Pre-season I looked at Irish, Exeter & Welsh as wins and 2 or 3 LBP's giving us a 16/17pt return after round 6. Losing to Irish was a kick in the teeth but getting a good win against Exeter has made me feel much better. We could realistically still be on 1pt which would be bloody scary!

I'd expect us first up to get a try scoring bonus point with us scoring tries quite regularly and secondly a win. I'm actually more confident of the TBP than the win. If we play like we did against Exeter for 40/50min we'll win by 30+ points.

by SirBurger Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:43 pm

Isn't Collier 21/22 and came through the academy...not exactly a journeyman?

by **Ozzy3213** Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:13 pm

I think 16/17 points from the opening 6 games was incredibly optimistic Pooly, given that you only got 22 in total last season. If you end up on 10 points from 6 (which is likely), then that puts you on target for around 36 for the season, which would have to be seen as a considerable improvement.

by Sgt_Pooly Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:33 pm

I was quite optimistic for the new season with the pitch and signings etc. I don't think 16pts was too far from our reach (I think we amassed 12/13 pts at a similar stage last season).

Exeter, Irish at home and Welsh away are very winnable games and 1 or 2 LBP's against Wasps, Tigers or Saints isn't asking too much.

It was a very reasonable ask imo. On paper we had a pretty easy start.

by **Ozzy3213** Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:45 pm

I think you were underestimating us and Exeter, as I also did in relation to Exeter. They have really surprised me, I had them down as finishing 9th or 10th this year. You guys have a real chance to kick on now though. If all my predictions come through this week, and I've backed the favourite in every game bar ours, then there will only be 6 points between 4th and 10th place. Anyone who strings a little run together at any point could realistically find themselves playing Champions Cup rugby next season.

by Sgt_Pooly Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:55 pm

I don't think I did, both Irish and Exeter were winnable games. Both games were close and we could have won/lost both. Prior to the season starting I thought we'd win both.

by kingelderfield Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:46 pm

I'm really hoping all the noise about their move to Coventry dosn't put Wasps off this Sunday. Biggest game of the weekend and I'm hoping they can unplug Bath's stratergy. Meet them head on in the forwards and beat them for pace in the backline.
Weather permitting, the psychology points to a Wasps bounce back at 'home' in the last jeff game before the european competitions.
Wonder if Stewie will be there?

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