Pacific Islands - a rough guide to their form and chances

At Gosforth in 1970 a mostly unknown touring side from Fiji faced off against a strong Barbarians team. The Fijians had delighted and surprised crowds with their skill and unique style on the tour, but this was surely a different proposition - the Baa-baas were fielding a mean line-up that included many of the same players that would famously beat the All Blacks in Cardiff 3 years later.

Fiji won 29-9, scoring 7 tries and squandering several more with comical errors close to the tryline. Barbarians players recalled an unfamiliar helplessness as they tried in vain to combat the bizarre yet brilliant play of the Fijians. It must have seemed that a new giant of the game had arisen.

Shortly afterwards the Fijians recorded respectable losses to Australia (2 points), England (1 point) and the All Blacks (1 point, to a last minute try). Sides found a way to keep them in check, but there is no doubt that they were competing with the best before the inequalities of the world kicked in over the following decades.

Today three rugby "minnows" of the Pacific - Fiji together with their Polynesian cousins Samoa and Tonga - present something of a conundrum - they are both serial overachievers, considering their tiny populations, and serial underachievers, considering the immense talent that has gone largely unfulfilled - for a number of reasons most of which boil down to money. All three nations have recurringly claimed major scalps which continue to surprise more than they should, but equally all have been prone to embarrassing performances on occasion. But are things looking up? The player availability situation is improving, and so is the number of competitive games, with the Pacific Nations Cup augmented by more tour fixtures both home and away. So what's the situation this end-of-year, as the sides make their final tours before the world cup?

Tonga
2014 results:
Samoa D 18-18
Fiji L 45-17
2014 fixtures:
Georgia
USA
Scotland

Traditionally the weakest of the three, Tonga have nonetheless recorded some strong results in recent years, frequently matching and sometimes getting the better of their more heralded neighbours. A high point in recent years was the thrilling 30-25 loss to the eventual winners South Africa at RWC 2007, but that was surely exceeded by the historic - and convincing - defeat of France 4 years later. Since then they have fared less well in a 38-18 loss to the same opponents last year, but have beaten Scotland. Their last match against Northern opposition was a respectabl 17-7 defeat to Wales, albeit in a dire game. The draw to Samoa in the PNC was a good result, but they were well beaten in Fiji - their heaviest defeat since losing 41-10 to the All Blacks at RWC 2011. A win over Scotland is the ultimate aim this time round, but first priority will be convincing performances against their fellow minnows Georgia and USA. Tonga should beat the USA on neutral ground but handling the ever-improving Georgians in Tbilisi will be a serious challenge.

Samoa
2014 results:
Tonga D 18-18
Italy W 15-0
Fiji W 18-13
2014 fixtures:
Italy
Canada
England

Over recent years the Samoans have been the strongest of the Island nations. Their 32-23 victory in Australia certainly marked their biggest coup, and they backed that up with another convincing win over Wales in 2012. Other results have been mixed - in 2013 a 27-17 win over Scotland and 39-10 demolition of Italy were followed by heavy losses to South Africa and Ireland, suggesting the Samoans were good but fell short against the best opponents. The draw to Tonga this year was not their best result, but an impressive nilling of Italy was followed by holding out for a tough win in Fiji, which was enough to land them the PNC crown. They will hope to add another defeat of Italy this autumn. England will likely prove too much, although we know by now that Samoa don't need much ground given to seize their opportunity. Like Tonga, Samoa's style is considerably more direct and combative than the Fijians - they scrummage, tackle and carry well, but a lack of try-scoring edge may be their biggest concern at the moment - they failed to cross the line in their last two games, hardly against stellar defences. With players like the Pisi brothers available, it feels like this shouldn't remain the case forever.

Fiji
2014 results
Italy W 25-14
Tonga W 45-17
Samoa L 18-13
2014 fixtures
France
Wales
USA

And so we come back to Fiji. Always the great entertainers of world rugby, they were the first of these three teams to make a mark globally, but for much of the past 5 years have been the weakest. Their performances against Wales in 2007 and 2011 showcased a spectacular decline - the former being one of the great games of World Cup history, the latter a routine drubbing. Now however things are looking distinctly up for them. Last autumn in Italy saw Fiji at their best and worst - scoring some fine tries, but losing 37-31 after being reduced to 11(!) men at one point. But that aside performances have grown in consistency, all the while retaining a wonderfully ambitious attacking style. A good defeat of Italy was encouraging, the thrashing of Tonga very encouraging, and the loss to a dogged Samoa performance came as a reality check. But coming into the autumn the squad has been strengthened and what Fiji now have available is formidable - last year Talebula was clear atop the Top 14 try scorers, with Nagusa 3rd in the same league. Goneva topped the English Premiership list, Matawalu was 5th in the Pro 12 and perhaps most impressively Nadolo led the Super Rugby returns, edging out Israel Folau. This season "Ratu" Ratini is the latest to set the Top 14 alight with a dazzling 8 tries in as many games. All 6 of those could plausibly start in the same Fiji XV, a scary prospect. It's true that their scrummaging remains very weak and will almost always cost them points - but with that sort of talent in the loose, it's hard to rule out anything happening in their autumn series. Wales have had plenty of bad experiences against the Island teams and will be keen to avoid another - but I suspect the real chance for Fiji to make a splash is this weekend's game against a questionable French team, who may just take them a little too lightly...

Hopefully this little sketch has been of interest to some of you. I did consider including some other minnows, but I'm not so familiar with the likes of Japan and Canada so decided to leave that for now. I do think one other team worth keeping an eye on this autumn is Georgia - they have been improving very steadily and crucially have the benefit of a strong rugby culture and, increasingly, competitive youth teams. Their match with Tonga is fascinating and hard to call, whilst a trip to Dublin offers a rare opportunity for a greater test and greater exposure. For now I expect them to surprise people with their set-piece ability - don't be shocked if they push Ireland around - but I doubt they have the cutting edge to get close on the scoreboard (I'm presuming Ireland won't play as badly as they did in their last meeting with Georgia!)

Here's to some "upsets"!

Fiji have signed a new multi million (Fijian) dollar deal with a new sponsorship and have now promised to pay players a significant amount of money to play for the national team. Hopefully this will allow them to field their best teams in these games.

They are also investing in a scrum academy so it seems they are taking the right steps forward for a change.

We (Newcastle Falcons) beat Tonga last Feb i think it was. And it wasnt a difficult game really.

Samoa are flying now.
Fiji need to improve their pack. They're backs can be exhilerating and are massive.
Tonga...i always see them as the weakest of the three.

LeinsterFan4life wrote:Fiji have signed a new multi million (Fijian) dollar deal with a new sponsorship and have now promised to pay players a significant amount of money to play for the national team. Hopefully this will allow them to field their best teams in these games.

They are also investing in a scrum academy so it seems they are taking the right steps forward for a change.

and they have been training with Georgia as well!

http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,,3551_9551940,00.html

Imagine if georgia and fidji were to merge, the resulting team would be quite scary!

anyway they named a decent team against france to leave the likes of nagusa and nadolo on the bench and goneva at home. not too sure about their tight 5 but there is lots of quality from 6 to 15...

Fiji: 15 Metuisela Talebula, 14 Watisoni Votu, 13 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 12 Levani Botia, 11 Alipate Ratini, 10 Jonetani Ralulu, 9 Nikola Matawalu, 8 Masi Matadigo, 7 Akapusi Qera (c), 6 Dominiko Waqaniburotu, 5 Api Ratuniyarawa, 4 Leone Nakarawa, 3 Manasa Saulo, 2 Sunia Koto, 1 Campese Ma'afu

Replacements: 16 Viliame Veikoso, 17 Jerry Yanuyanutawa, 18 Isei Colati, 19 Nemia Soqeta, 20 Malakai Ravulo, 21 Henry Seniloli, 22 Nemani Nadolo, 23 Timoci Nagusa

GeordieFalcon wrote:We (Newcastle Falcons) beat Tonga last Feb i think it was. And it wasnt a difficult game really.

Last year Samoa lost 74-14 to the Golden Lions (South African regional side). The next week they recorded a straighforward win over Scotland. And they are  generally the most consistent of the three...

Tonga are considerably smaller than the others population wise (just 100,000) which is probably the main reason for their lower standing.

A decent Fijian team there, although as you point out missing a few biggies (Nadolo is injured, will be back this week). Wales play them next week so will obviously be taking an interest in the France game this weekend. I suggest England and Australia cast a glance over it too...

I nearly made that comment about a joint Georgia-Fiji team! I suspect it would be pretty formidable.

"Our objective for this tour is to set a platform for next year's Rugby World Cup.

"The world will be watching when we pit ourselves against the English in Twickenham on the 18th of September, so France, Wales and the USA will be an ideal testing time for our coach, who is in his first year, to have a feel of where the boys are at and what sort of work needs to be done."

So the English are the pinncale....and the Welsh are just a decent testing model....

Wi11, interesting read, but in writing about the Polynesian teams of the South Pacific I'd have thought the Maori All blacks might have rated a mention, and as we speak (type/read) they are leading Japan 15 nil.

aucklandlaurie wrote:
Wi11, interesting read, but in writing about the Polynesian teams of the South Pacific I'd have thought the Maori All blacks might have rated a mention, and as we speak (type/read) they are leading Japan 15 nil.

Ah but they aren't a national team (in the sense that they can't compete at World Cups) and are in a very different position in terms of fundamental issues like player eligibility / availability, financial backing etc. I wasn't lumping the Islands together *just* because of their shared heritage (in fact Fijians isn't even Polynesian!)

The Maori are certainly interesting though, a damn fine team for sure and were absolutely brilliant against Japan last week. A brave effort by Japan this week though - and they too are an increasingly interesting prospect. The Pacific Nations Cup, although constantly changing in format, has been a good showcase for all the above teams plus USA and Canada - with plenty of close games and of course some very contrasting styles!

As ever We are STILL seeing plenty of PI players not turning out for their national teams despite being fit. You had Tekori and Johnston playing for Toulouse yesterday. Two vital players for Samoa.

Fiji were missing most of their first choice backline (a couple were injured but Nalanga, Maslevu and Virivir all played for their clubs) and some backrow players like Quovo who was playing at the weekend.

Tonga had 4-5 players drop out of the squad last minute due to personal and contract issues.

Have read that Johnston was left out by the Samoa coach on purpose. As for Nalaga I dont get it, he told the coach he doesnt want to join the Fiji for family reasons and yet played for Clermont yesterday!
He's the only one who is arguably better than the guys who started for Fiji back 3 yesterday. Fiji problems are in the centres and tight 5 really. It's worth noting that their scrum and line out made some progress though.

whocares wrote:Have read that Johnston was left out by the Samoa coach on purpose. As for Nalaga I dont get it, he told the coach he doesnt want to join the Fiji for family reasons and yet played for Clermont yesterday!
He's the only one who is arguably better than the guys who started for Fiji back 3 yesterday. Fiji problems are in the centres and tight 5 really. It's worth noting that their scrum and line out made some progress though.

Oh yes apparently Johnston was "injured"? of course that is nonsense as he started for Toulouse. That's disappointing to hear from Nalanga as he usually always turns out for Fiji even in the Pacific cup.

In terms of the back 3 I would have both Virivir and Masilevu ahead of Votu (he is playing in the pro D2 after all). I've also no idea why Nangusa was on the bench instead of starting at 15. In the centers when everyone is fit Fiji are ok as Nandolo should have been starting with Goneva or Bai (I think both are injured). Nakataci could have sorted that but he has been capped by France.