Brazilian GP Thread - Spoilers ahead so take your chances at your own risk

[Fernando]

First topic message reminder :

Standard procedure no abusing or be put on the naughty step for Abu Dhabi

Under normal circumstances, Lewis Hamilton's 24-point lead would leave him on the brink of securing his second drivers' championship heading in to this weekend's Brazilian Grand Prix, but this is not a normal season. Hamilton has been in scintillating form as he has reeled off five victories in a row, but the championship will be decided in Abu Dhabi thanks to the double points on offer, with Hamilton only able to open up a 49-point lead if he wins in Brazil and Nico Rosberg fails to score. Rosberg needs to outscore his team-mate in order to negate any notion of a potential title win being tainted by the rules, with even Toto Wolff admitting it could “overshadow” the season. While the championship is the focus at Mercedes, those further down the grid head to Sao Paulo keen to build on the momentum they have gathered in trying to make F1 more financially fair. With the futures of three world champions also still to be confirmed, it's going to be a busy weekend on and off track.

2013 race
Last year the title race was well and truly finished, with the main focus on F1 bidding farewell to Mark Webber while Felipe Massa took part in his final race for Ferrari. After the drama of 2012, this is a relatively boring race in Brazilian GP terms, with Sebastian Vettel taking pole position and duly converting to take a record breaking ninth consecutive grand prix victory in the same season. Rosberg actually got the jump in to Turn 1 but Vettel was back ahead on lap 2 and eased away, with Webber slotting in to second after having the pace to hold off Fernando Alonso, who completed the podium. Massa's day was ruined by a drive through penalty which dropped him from fourth to seventh, also costing Ferrari second in the constructors' championship as Hamilton limped home ninth after contact with Valtteri Bottas.

Most successful driver at Interlagos: Michael Schumacher (4 wins)
Most successful team at Interlagos: Ferrari, McLaren (8 wins)*
*Indicates both the 8km and current track layouts

2014 session times All times local

FP1: 1000 – 1130
FP2: 1400 – 1530
FP3: 1100 – 1200
Qualifying: 1400
Race: 1400

Track information

Lewis Hamilton:

You start the lap absolutely flat out into the low-grip Turn One. The corner really falls away from you quite steeply here and it's so easy to lock up, but you need to make sure to get a really tight exit to enable you to be flat through Turns Two and Three. Positioning is crucial to carrying good speed through these two corners, as you're then into the first DRS straight and one of the best overtaking opportunities around the circuit at Turn Four.

You can brake really late for this corner - way after the 100m line and closer to the 50m line - so you need to take as much speed as possible on the way in. You then take a little bit of the kerb on exit and run flat out through Turn Five, all the way up to Turn Six. Again, this is a corner where you can carry so much speed on entry - trying to just clip the apex and doing the same through Turn Seven and hanging the car out wide for the entry to Turn Eight.

Along with Turn Nine, this really does require you to use absolutely all of the kerb for the best line and is really tricky to get right. Turn Ten is next, which is really low grip and just seems to last forever. There's so little traction but you have to find it as best you can, as you're then flat out down the hill through Turn 11, where the car is constantly trying to step out on you.

Braking into Turn 12, the final corner in effect, is tough. Your tyres are so hot from the stop / start, high braking nature of the middle sector that the rear end can fishtail into here and it's easy to overrun the corner. You have to keep up your minimum speed, though, as the lap ends with a flat-out run up the hill and across the line, where keeping the steering as straight and smooth as possible is crucial. It's a long run and with the DRS zone included, this is the best chance to make an overtake stick.

Weather

Interlagos is famed for its unpredictable weather, with warm, sunny conditions able to turn in to thunderous downpours in an instant. Well, guess what? This weekend is no different. The current forecast is for thunderstorms throughout the weekend, with wet weather predicted on all three days of running. At present, Sunday has the lowest risk of rain at 80%, but there's never any guarantee that the rain will hit the track. However, 2013 showed that threatening dark clouds will always make pit walls nervy.

Prediction

Hamilton's run of form shows no sign of coming to an end, but Rosberg's pole position and early lead in Austin shows he won't go down without a fight. The forecast wet conditions have the potential to make the race more of a lottery, but the two Mercedes drivers are unlikely to be seriously challenged as the long run up to the start line requires strong engine performance. Expecting another shootout between the two title contenders, Interlagos has not been kind to Hamilton – even when he won the title here – as he boasts just one third place from seven races. His run of form has to come to an end at some point and we're going to tip Rosberg to make the most of a tricky weekend to cut the gap in the title race.

Source: Crash.net

[GSC]

Jesus Christ.

Its 4 ****ing WDC. At 26. How biased do you have to be to try to play that down

[GSC]

This is the same intellectual level argument as waiting until Messi does it on a cold night at Stoke Craig.

I hope you're aware of that

[Gerry SA]

IIRC, back in 2010, Vettel won the WDC at the final race. The only time in the entire season he was on top of the standings. 

As for Hamilton winning the 2008 WDC with a car being 'on par with his rivals'. You mean Hamilton only won the WDC because he had no pressure of hid weak ass team mate Heikki? And Massa's damn awful luck.

[GSC]

2010 Gerry. And in 2012 Alonso had a big lead with 4 races to go or something. 2011 the RB was dominant, 2013 it was after the summer break. But not to the extent of the Merc this year

[Gerry SA]

2010 Gerry. And in 2012 Alonso had a big lead with 4 races to go or something. 2011 the RB was dominant, 2013 it was after the summer break. But not to the extent of the Merc this year

Yep sorry I've changed that on my post. 

I guess Craig ignores 2010 and 2012...

[GSC]

Craig tends to ignore a lot of things that don't support his view.

[Guest]

Pointless arguments. I wouldn't view this Hamilton title win, I'd it happens, as somr kind of miraculous achievement. It would just be a good title win, made harder by the fact, Rosbeeg at his worst would always finish second, unlike Webber who was awful & would finish in a whole manner of different places on a Sunday. Vettel has two gifted titles, this would be similar for Hamilton, only slightly more difficult. You can mouth off about Vettel having four titles, he's talented, but nowhere near the untouchable god, some delusional people thought he was, as proven by this mauling by a relative rookie at a top outfit in Daniel R.

As for the title this year, I stated I just wanted Lewis to have that 14 point+ cushion heading into Abu Dhabi & he's got it. So I can't complain.

[GSC]

Webber wasn't awful (latter half of 2013 aside when he gave up), I can't buy that myth. Not a top driver but he was by no means bad.

4 WDC is 4 WDC. Only 2 people have more in the history of Formula 1. Its amazing the mental gymnastics people will go through to discredit that.

[Guest]

you clearly didn't watch much F1 while Webber was around, GSC. Don't try & prove to us Webber was anything but woeful. Webber was awful, clearly inept & at times just embarrassing. Constant mistakes, his starts were dreadful, he was mentally not right after years of being trounced. The difference between rosberg & Webber is huge, hence why hamilton has struggled to wrap this title up early.

I don't go through mental gymnastics in analysing f1 drivers & their performances & factual results. I just tell the truth.

[GSC]

Yeah, just the 9 race wins, 10 pole positions and 32 podiums between 2009 and 2012. And the 3 3rd places finishes in the WDC and a 4th during his time at RB.

The guy was a total mug 

Meanwhile Rosberg still has less career wins than Webber had in that period, despite being a car that broke the record for most 1-2s in a single season. How about those factual results

[Gerry SA]

Some drivers only have one title run in them. Eg Massa 2008(unsuccessful), Button 2009(successful) and Webber 2010(unsuccessful). 

At Webber's age Afrer his near miss it was pretty obvious he'd lost the belief he could beat his younger team mate. 

As for Hamilton not sealing this years title thus far. Pretty simple reason. One car championship. Without mechanical issues both cars pretty finish 1/2 most of the time.

[Guest]

lololol! not quite the truth there is that, gsc. not surprising, your comparing a driver of four years in a dominant car, to that of a driver who's only been given the chance to shine in a dominant car for one year. totally puzzling comparison.

9 race wins for webber over four years in a dominant car (for maybe 3 of those 4 years)
8 race wins for rosberg over four years in a car which has been dominant for 1 year, YES, that's 1 year compared to Webber's 4! DEALING WITH FACT! The Mercedes was a dog of a car for the other 2/3 years.

[Guest]

Agree with Liamb, Webber's stats will of course be generous, given the opportunity he was given to drive the RB in that era, but as the stats prove, Rosberg has nearly matched Webber already with just one season of driving a dominant car & he's been the inferior driver in the partnership to Hamilton. No matter how someone tries to spin the stats, Webber was dire for the sport & the reason nobody misses him, especially given the arrival of Ricciardo to the front of the grid.

[GSC]

It was not a dog last year, odd that someone who deals in "truth" would state such.

The RB was dominant in 1.5-2 seasons. Thats a lot of fact twisting

[GSC]

Brawn was better in 2009
2010 the RB was the best car, but not by a great margin. Post crash Massa dragged down the Ferrari and McLaren ran out of steam towards the end/shoddy reliability.
2011 the RB was dominant
2012 the McLaren was probably the fastest car with a habit of breaking down often. Ferrari wasn't far off either, again Massa was pretty useless.
2013 the Merc was at least on a par up to midseason. Then the RB was dominant.

[Guest]

2010 the RB was the best car
2011 the RB was dominant
2013 Then the RB was dominant.

So from RB being dominant for 1.5 years, as you stated previously, you've now just described nearly 3 years of dominant periods. Well done.

[GSC]

2010 the RB was the best car, but not by a great margin.

Not sure how you define dominant but I wouldn't describe being marginally ahead of the pack as dominant.

As for the last one, reading comprehension doesn't seem to be a strength I take it?

[Guest]

As for the last one, reading comprehension doesn't seem to be a strength I take it?

Haha, you mean 2013? Whereby RB scored 596 points to Mercedes 360. Yeah, you try & downplay that & make out that's not a dominant era. Comical

[GSC]

Yeah, because it was dominant after the summer break (Spa onwards) as I said. The Merc was up there prior to that point.

As I stated 

[Guest]

So, now the long wait for Abu Dhabi. Just to understand the situation, this is the mathematics of where we stand & what is needed to take the title.

If Rosberg wins, Hamilton needs to finish 2nd.
If Rosberg is 2nd, Hamilton needs to be at least 5th.
If Rosberg is 3rd, Hamilton needs to be at least 6th.
If Rosberg is 4th, Hamilton needs to be at least 8th.
If Rosberg is 5th, Hamilton needs to be at least 9th.
If Rosberg is 6th or lower, Hamilton is world champion.
If Hamilton finishes 1st or 2nd he is world champion.
If Hamilton finishes 3rd, 4th or 5th, Rosberg needs to win.
If Hamilton finishes 6th, Rosberg needs at least 2nd.
If Hamilton finishes 7th or 8th, Rosberg needs to finish at least 3rd.
If Hamilton finishes 9th, Rosberg needs to finish at least 4th.
If Hamilton finishes 10th or outside of the points, Rosberg needs to finish at least 5th

I'm also looking forward to practice to see the new McLaren 'test car' for 2015.

[GSC]

Basically if Hamilton finishes he'll be WDC

[dyrewolfe]

Agreed. Realistically Hamilton just needs to finish behind Rosberg to be crowned champion.

Wonder if he'll be more cautious than usual if Rosberg looks strong? Abu Dhabi isn't exactly renowned as an overtaking circuit.

Anyway, good race in Brazil with some great duels involving Alonso, Raikkonen and Button.

Was chuffed for Massa, getting a podium, despite getting a 5-second penalty and managing to drive into the wrong garage during a pit stop. A rare off-day for Bottas, but given the season he's had so far, he can be forgiven.

Similar thing with Red Bull with Vettel looking racier than he has for a long time. Ricciardo seemed off his game, even before his brake / suspension failure.

Very decent 4th place for Button. Can only help his case to stay with McLaren - he also seemed a lot happier during the interviews.


I thought it was interesting that Hamilton didn't race Rosberg as long and hard on track as he has done previously (until the final stint anyway) and seemed to concentrate on trying to get the lead during the pit stops. Very nearly worked too - if only he hadn't had that big slide during his in-lap. I know at least part of this was down to the high track temps and not wanting to wreck his tyres, but wonder if it also signalled a change of mindset, going for safety first and just getting points in the bag?

[CaledonianCraig]

Are this Celtic side currently an all-time great side if they go on to patch together say 10 titles on the bounce. Of course not (quite a poor one actually) but without any viable challengers then they could complete that feat. Same goes for Vettel in his foufour title win run.

I still await an explanation as to why Seb got handed a new one by a virtual newbie this year if his driving talents are so immense? Also can anyone here honestly say Alonso, Hamilton, Raikkonen or even Button would not have won four world titles in that Red Bull? I am sure they would have.

Everyone here measures greatness on their own merits and scales. For me there are and always has been much more value in a world title won in a car not necessarily ththe fastest. Also anyone with an F1 brain will bow to the greatness of Adrian Newey as a car designer. He has designed world title winning cars across three decades with varying technical restrictions. He is the mastermind.

We won't have agreement on this at all but will GerrySA be so praiseworthy of Hamilton should he remain at Mercedes for the next few years and rack up world titles. I should think definitely not. One thing Gerry cannot deny is that whatever the quality of car he has driven Hamilton or Alonso have never been so owned by a team-mate using the same technology.

[GSC]

Every WDC is impressive. If Hamilton wins his it'll be impressive and likewise Rosberg (though there'll be an asterix in my mind if its double points aided)

At the end of the day Craig, you might as well just be a Chief designer fan rather than a driver fan. Drivers make little difference compared to them in the modern F1 era

[CaledonianCraig]

Look if I were running a 10,000 metres race against an Asthma sufferer and won it does not make me a fantastic athlete. Now if I were to win such a race against someone with a better PB etc then that would be worth far more praise than a win against an asthmatic. Just as Celtic cannot be labelled as an all-time great for winning titles in a time devoid of meritous opposition.

[GSC]

Yes but that example is silly and barely applies.

Ferrari/McLaren/Mercedes hardly lost because of any handicap or resource

[CaledonianCraig]

Yes they lost because their car was neither as fast or as mechanically sound as the Red Bull. There can be no denying that just as it is patently obvious how superior the Mercedes has been this year or how dominant Ferrari were in the early to mid 2000s.

[GSC]

Absolutely, but thats modern F1. You get far greater margins with the car than driver.

[CaledonianCraig]

Yes and that is my point. The car is so good that any decent F1 driver at a high level would have obtained Vettel's results. Are you saying he done what no other F1 driver would have managed in that Red Bull? If Fernando and Lewis can win titles in cars that were not dominant I am sure they would have done in the dominant Red Bull.

[GSC]

Yes, thats modern F1. However that doesn't detract from 4 WDC. You can only really beat the driver in the other car, and Vettel trounced Webber after the first year. Hamilton is ultimately going to beat Rosberg more convincingly than it'll seem. Alonso took Massa to the cleaners.

Its a bit late in the day to start holding being in the best car against World Champions. F1 success will always be driven by whos in the best car. Off the top of my head, Kimi was probably the last guy to win a WDC in a car that wasn't the best, and thats because Hamilton and Alonso cost each other the WDC.

[CaledonianCraig]

I can recall others that did it in lesser car and when they manage that it is a far more impressive feat as it becomes more about the drivers talent and less about the strength of the car.

[GSC]

Thats mostly fantasy really. 

Hamilton, Button and Vettel were all in the best car (varying margins-Vettel's car was really only massively ahead of the back 2 times before that comes up)

Alonso had the Renault when the tyre change rules came in, Schumacher in the powerhouse Ferrari team of the early 2000s. Hakkinnen in that 1998 McLaren who just lost their 1-2 record.

Unromantic but the car makes most of the difference. Bit late in the day to start holding that against WDCs

[banbrotam]

People forget that the MM of 2008 was, at first, vastly inferior to the Ferrari and it was only Kimi's disinterest that mean they didn't exploit this

Even at it's best it was rarely better than the Ferrari, in that season

For me and ironically if you'd put Alonso or even Button in that car, they'd have won

I also think that if next season Hamilton is in a car that is only marginally better, he's in an even better position, simply because Rosberg's only slight car advantage would be wiped out by the fact he isn't as good as Alonso, Vettel, Ricardo and I'd argue Bottas. This assumes these get somewhere near of course!!

[banbrotam]

I thought it was interesting that Hamilton didn't race Rosberg as long and hard on track as he has done previously (until the final stint anyway) and seemed to concentrate on trying to get the lead during the pit stops. Very nearly worked too - if only he hadn't had that big slide during his in-lap. I know at least part of this was down to the high track temps and not wanting to wreck his tyres, but wonder if it also signalled a change of mindset, going for safety first and just getting points in the bag?

He threw away seven seconds with that spin - an ocean of time when your team mate has the same quick car

I actually thought his times just before were astonishing, but a sign that he was pushing too much for the win

[Guest]

I think it's quite clear what Hamilton is doing. He knows he's qualifying on the front row regardless, he's simply concentrated on race setup this second half of the season & sacrificed one lap Saturday pace, hence why Nico has surprisingly out performed the regarded fastest man in F1. Evidence of this was in Japan, where Lewis went for a more suited wet setup & Nico didn't. Lewis' race pace currently is astonishing, it was a stupid mistake pushing too hard ,but he really should of won yesterday.

[Guest]

Alonso to McLaren Honda agreed

[Guest]

Yeah, Alonso has agreed but still ? over his teammate for 2015. Boullier wants Magnussen, whereas Alonso wants Button over Magnussen, in order to fast track the development side of the Honda engine. What does Ron want though?

[dyrewolfe]

Yeah, Alonso has agreed but still ? over his teammate for 2015. Boullier wants Magnussen, whereas Alonso wants Button over Magnussen, in order to fast track the development side of the Honda engine. What does Ron want though?

Heh. If that is the case I can imagine there will be some pretty heated discussions between now and next season.

Whats more important to McLaren - a happy boss, a happy team principal or happy drivers?

I'm also wondering if Button's already made up his mind to join Webber in sportscars...hence his more relaxed attitude?

Based on this season's results, he definitely merits his seat more than Magnussen, having scored nearly double the amount of points. Question is, does he want to stay in F1 or does he fancy a new challenge? Would he fancy having Alonso as a team mate?

I think Magnussen has potential, but I don't think he's in the same league as Ricciardo or Bottas.

[monty junior]

you clearly didn't watch much F1 while Webber was around, GSC. Don't try & prove to us Webber was anything but woeful. Webber was awful, clearly inept & at times just embarrassing. Constant mistakes, his starts were dreadful, he was mentally not right after years of being trounced. The difference between rosberg & Webber is huge, hence why hamilton has struggled to wrap this title up early.

I don't go through mental gymnastics in analysing f1 drivers & their performances & factual results. I just tell the truth.

Well i don't see much "truth" in this. Webber was not "woeful", "awful" or "inept". He was one of the most highly regarded young drivers (at Jaguar and Minardi) and one of the best qualifiers in the sport for at least half of his career. He maybe never have got the breaks at the right time and was possibly a bit old and inconsistent when his chance came but don't brand him as some rubbish driver who should never have had a chance at the front. He absolutely hammered Rosberg as team mates, yes Rosberg was a rookie but he wasn't even close to Webber. The only difference i can see between the two is that this year the Mercedes has such an advantage that even an average race the Mercedes finishes second such is the advantage but the Redbull from previous years though the fastest overall had loads of tracks it wasn't suited too and on the power tracks wasn't much more than a top 10 runner at times, as compared to the Mercedes being the fastest car at every race this year. The first time that's happened since 1988.

[Guest]

Let's be real here. Webber was 'inept' at racing alongside Vettel. That's fact. I wouldn't say he was 'awful' or 'woeful' because he won double digit races, including Silverstone & Monaco on multiple times, tracks which require differing skill sets from a driver. He was a decent driver, nothing less & nothing more. He had one chance at a title but given his lack of ruthlessness, he wasn't able to deliver it. After racing alongside Vettel, psychologically he was blown & the hammering took it's tool, hence, why people just remember his last few days, where he looked a beaten man even before practice sessions. Great guy, but certainly won't be remembered as a top driver in the sport. I think people can agree on that.

[GSC]

I tend to think peoples views are skewed by the last season when he had checked out mentally. He wasn't a top tier guy but he was more than competent

[monty junior]

He was what, 37? Most guys are well past their peak by that time, even in F1.

[dyrewolfe]

Plus you need to remember the fact that, aside from his 1 shot at the title, Webber was firmly RB's #2 driver. Race strategies were optimised for Vettel, any new upgrades went to Seb first if they didn't have enough parts for both cars.

Things like that can affect your performances, as much as any negative psychological issues.

Fair enough Vettel was the better driver of the two by a margin, but those sort of things will only magnify the existing talent gap.

I think it is grossly unfair to call Webber a failure, useless etc. and compare him to a clearly superior team mate, who enjoyed #1 status within the team. Its also very wrong to call him mentally weak.

I'd like to see how many people here would continue racing after a shunt like the one he had in Valencia? - the one where he ran into the back of Kovaleinen's Caterham and somersaulted into the barrier? Takes major cojones to step right back into the cockpit after something like that. Even though he was able to walk away from it, it could have ended very differently...just ask Marussia.

Granted he had probably mentally "checked out" during his last season, knowing he was moving to sportscars. You can hardly blame him after the previous 3 seasons.

As John said, he was a decent driver...I'd even go as far as above-average. He was just unlucky to be paired with a superior team mate, who broke numerous records over the 4 seasons he won back to back titles.


Its the same thing with Felipe Massa...lots of people rubbish him, but forget he had to play 2nd fiddle to Schumacher and Alonso for years.

[CaledonianCraig]

Webber wasn't a bad driver but likewise was not in the class of Alonso, Hamilton, Raikkonen or even Button. I am sure they would have faired better in that Red Bull. Let's remember Webber was handcuffed somewhat by team orders. Who could forget Red Bull whipping his new front wing off his car to give to Vettel at British Grand Prix. At least the dominance of Mercedes this year has seen both drivers allowed to race each other without favouritism.

[monty junior]

Massa and Webber were of course well above average drivers, average for me is someone like Sutil, Liuzzi, Nakajima etc. The first two were touted as world champions and until Massa had his horror crash in 2009 i still gave him a good chance to become one, pretty much until mid 2009 Webber was seen as a Champion in waiting as well until ultimately he just didn't have that consistency or between the ears to go that step further when he got the opportunity. Not even a fan of either, liked Webber a lot at Jaguar with his quali laps in Hungary,Imola, Interlagos 2003 and Sepang 2004.

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