Australian Open Day 10-14 - Djokurray! And others! :P

First topic message reminder :

Well some of you hardcore mob will no doubt be up watching the first round matches and even up first thing if your boarding the Fed Express. I will be utilising the power of Sky+!

So we have Federer, Nadal, Murray, Berdych, Gulbis and Dimitov all in action on the men's side.

On the ladies we have Halep, Sharapova, Bouchard, Ivanovic, Kerber and young gun Bencic.

Should be an action packed day.

HMM, exactly, Bo5 is a whole different story for Djoko, he is a Locomotive.

Silver wrote:And he has a very winnable match against Lopez next, with the probable Raonic match to follow. How tired is he, though?

Congrats to Novak for tying Sampras at #5 on the AO wins list, a very creditable 45 three more and he hops to third with Lendl and Agassi.

Good opportunity for Janowicz but he's exactly the sort of player who would win a classic and then lose the seemingly easier next match!

Didn't realise that stat about Novak. The one I have my eye on is 5 more wins and he becomes the player with most AO titles in the open era!

Silver wrote:And he has a very winnable match against Lopez next, with the probable Raonic match to follow. How tired is he, though?

Well after the match Janowicz says his fitness has improved as this is the first pre-season he could do full fitness training that wasn't hindered by one injury or another. He also feels stronger mentally. I would be surprised if he doesn't have enough to beat Lopez and the Raonic match will be interesting. He possesses a big serve himself and I'd say he returns better than Raonic so he has a good chance of winning on this showing.

Quite right, HM - by far the more important number! I'm just a stats geek who likes my match win counts

I do definitely agree JJ will have enough to sweep aside Lopez. He was lucky to scrape past Mannarino today, can't see him holding up against Janowicz. Raonic is a different story, I just feel he'll be a bit too consistent. It should be interesting though, and the draw has opened up somewhat in that area.

I can see JJ v Raonic being something like 7-6 6-7, 7-6, 6-7, 14-12. Wouldn't fancy being the centre line judge...

Raonic, will win in 3, JJ is gone.

HM Murdoch wrote:

Silver wrote:And he has a very winnable match against Lopez next, with the probable Raonic match to follow. How tired is he, though?

Congrats to Novak for tying Sampras at #5 on the AO wins list, a very creditable 45 three more and he hops to third with Lendl and Agassi.

Good opportunity for Janowicz but he's exactly the sort of player who would win a classic and then lose the seemingly easier next match!

Didn't realise that stat about Novak. The one I have my eye on is 5 more wins and he becomes the player with most AO titles in the open era!

And if Murray wins against Sousa then he moves into the top ten for most wins at the Australian Open in the Open Era.

^ yep. As per yesterday:

Silver wrote:If Andy wins today, he ties Courier for #11 on the AO match wins list (35)

Only now it's Wilander, #10 and 36 respectively. Murray moving on up!

dummy_half wrote:I can see JJ v Raonic being something like 7-6 6-7, 7-6, 6-7, 14-12. Wouldn't fancy being the centre line judge...

Then how about if Karlovic and Isner fight it out at Wimbledon finals

I am not sure Djokovic struggles too badly with big servers. He has never lost to raonic and has a winning record against isner too. That being the likes of Nadal do have better records against the big booming serves. Strange as Djokovic has undoubtedly the best return of serve on tour.

You are right though HM, you would have to think over 5 sets, it puts novak in a much better place. I also agree about the latter rounds avoiding Nadal and Murray. I think i would possibly fear wawrinka more at the Oz open than Murray. Wawrinka is much more unpredictable while djokovic has played murray 3 times in oz and won all 3 (that being said the 5 setter in 2012 was incredibly close)

Will be interesting to see how wawrinka gets on and whether he can keep the momentum going. He is prone to the occasional bad day at the office and he is always vulnerable then against anybody. The top 3 have a habit of grinding out wins even when playing poorly

His recent outing with Karlovic was not that successful. He could not cope with Dr Ivo's return that day. However as we know it depends how each is playing on the day.

It may be a matter of interest, that David Ferrer's record against tall booming servers is somewhat incredulous.. if you look at his h 2 h against all of them including Dr Ivo he has the upper hand.. yet he struggles against Novak. I would suggest that Ferrer must be up there with the best return of serves

slashermcguirk wrote:I am not sure Djokovic struggles too badly with big servers.

Karlovic may be a special case though - http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=D643&oId=K336.

Isner is another - http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=D643&oId=I186 (especially the 2013 Cincy match). It was a heartbreaker for Djokovic.

Haddie-nuff wrote:I would suggest that Ferrer must be up there with the best return of serves

Seconded.

I  have never disputed Novak's return of serve ability, not at all. He is for me undoubtedly "the best" contender, being able so often to anticipate his opponents serve/
Lets face it, it is not always power serves, but placement which he seems so good at reading. Still every dog has his day and other factors often influence.. Dr Ivo was exceptional we know, plus the elements, i.e. windy, plus Novak was having a stroppy day,( may have been kept up  all night by little Stephan.) It happens, and can happen to the best of them

HN & LF still with a weak spot for Ferrer

Jahu wrote:HN & LF still with a weak spot for Ferrer

Weak spot ??? more like, respect,admiration and the affection for a man that is so committed and plays with so much passion for the sport I love.

slashermcguirk wrote:I am not sure Djokovic struggles too badly with big servers. He has never lost to raonic and has a winning record against isner too. That being the likes of Nadal do have better records against the big booming serves. Strange as Djokovic has undoubtedly the best return of serve on tour.

His record against them is somewhat patchy compared to his awesome record against the rest of the tour, which at the top level is the only thing we can really call a 'weakness'!

I think the reason is probably because his main strength on the return is offensive - he's extremely good at returning most serves that aren't absolute bullets to within a foot of the baseline, by far the best offensive returner and therefore the best returner generally. But when he's forced into a defensive return by excessive speed or height then he's perhaps not quite as good at giving himself time. Inversing this also helps explain Federer's inexplicably good record against huge servers - his block return on the backhand side is by far the best in the game, and SHBH helps. But against lesser servers his return game is more average. Nadal's slice return is also very good.

Just a theory based off the eye-test, though. I'm probably wrong

Edit: Haddie makes a good point about conditions too. In heavy wind or indoors- either extreme - the huge servers are horrible to face.

Sooo, how about those tennis matches tonight? Dimi is first up and he's not having it all his own way against Baghdatis, Baggy serving for the opening set.

OOOOOOOh come on Baggy. !!

What a man.. welcome back Baggy !!

Silver wrote:I think the reason is probably because his main strength on the return is offensive - he's extremely good at returning most serves that aren't absolute bullets to within a foot of the baseline, by far the best offensive returner and therefore the best returner generally. But when he's forced into a defensive return by excessive speed or height then he's perhaps not quite as good at giving himself time. Inversing this also helps explain Federer's inexplicably good record against huge servers - his block return on the backhand side is by far the best in the game, and SHBH helps. But against lesser servers his return game is more average.

Wow, this is almost word-for-word how I think of it too.

Jahu wrote:HN & LF still with a weak spot for Ferrer

Yes, sweetheart, I do. No matter what any one says about Ferrer, he has used what he was given (with no small thanks to Piles) for being where he is. If he was 2 more inches taller, he would have given Agassi, Connors and many others a run for their money. He has done more for Spain's DC aspirations than anyone else, including keeping Spain alive when Nadal was absent.

Garcia needs to work on consistency even though she has some easy, but error-prone power. The net play is a bit too late. Can she stave of a bagel?

Dimitrov survives in five sets. He has looked quite solid but unspectacular.

Murray or Sousa the next round.

He sure didn't look solid in that match until the last set imo
Baggy should have stolen it after he took the third.. but Baggy being Baggy seemed to lose focus in the fourth and thereafter. Baggy played some really good stuff and Dimi at times looked an average player who looked under pressure. He dug deep and came up with it in he end but Im not convinced by that performance

No, it was not a particularly great performance. Agree.

Very poor from Fed so far. Seppi not doing much wrong but neither is he playing as well as Bolelli was the last round.

summerblues wrote:Very poor from Fed so far.  Seppi not doing much wrong but neither is he playing as well as Bolelli was the last round.

I agree sb. Seppi cant keep the pressure on long enough. Fed only has to play like this against a stronger player and I dont give much for his chances

I think Fed will come in to the net now.. and if Seppi has his head screwed on he wont try passing him... a few lobs thrown in here are there might do the trick

Having said that Seppi then sends a great pass by him. However I feel Seppi is making Fed look better than he actually is.. cos he is not playing well imo

Fed may try to come in more but unless he improves his game, he might be going home tonight.

On the other hand, he is playing so poorly right now that it should not be too hard to improve from here.

Thats the truth... Seppi is well.....ok but he is not playing that good for the scoreboard to show what it is. certainly Fed is not doing much but keep in the match imo

You know you have to smile at some of these players... how long has Seppi been around.. this is the 11th time he has played Fed and probably the 11th time he will lose.. but still he keeps making the same mistakes..I would have thought that he would not have tried taking him on at the net.

Well this will all depend on how Fed is playing.  Seppi has a decent all around game but he does not do anything spectacularly well and if Fed is playing anywhere near his abilities, Seppi will not win - does not matter what tactics he may be playing.

But, of course, if Fed is playing like he has been playing so far tonight, then it is anybody's match.

Well Seppi has never beaten him and the only chance he might get is in this match.
But he has got to hope that Federer keeps playing the mediocre game he is playing and he needs to step it up. Apart from his serve there seems no power in his ground strokes and it may be that the heat is getting to Fed .. he threw in the lob and it worked. The old man might find the running a bit tiring !!!!

I think I would put money on there being something not quite right with the maestro he is looking very sluggish to me ..

Federer done and dusted and needs a miracle to get back in.

Unless Seppi is prepared to grant him that miracle !!!

Yeah, Fed looks oddly poor. This is the worst I have seen him play in a while. Anyway, if he wants to win. he will need to deal with whatever it is.

He has got the bliddy miracle !!! jeeze

What bad luck for Seppi.

No jammy luck for Federer..

Hehe, if that is how you like it.

I was expecting that just about now Fed would be two sets and a break up and I would head to bed.  Now I have to debate how late I am willing to stay for this.

Justice

Can only assume there is something wrong with Fed? No way does a functioning Fed go 2 sets down to a player like Seppi. Still make him an 80:20 favourite to win though.

Meanwhile, Murray playing more aggressive than his first two matches and leads Sousa 6-1 3-1. Still could go up a level or two.

I agree but all Fed fans are losing sight of the fact that He is now 33yrs old.
True Seppi is not the player I would foresee beating Roger but Im sure most posters on here are sick of me saying the same thing when we get to a GS. This one in particular is a gruelling tournament set in the middle of the Australian summer. I know having lived in Spain for 14yrs, try playing tennis in temps of over 100deg (5sets) is a killer for anyone. Novak is going to feel it too he usually does.
GS are notoriously hard to predict. Look at Rafa.. was it the heat, a bug or what but its all energy sapping and I cant see him going the whole way not after the last performance.  I will not be surprised at the outcome of this tournament whoever wins.. But Federer, if he manages to pull this one out, will doubtless be running on empty.

Agree, even if Fed were to somehow get out of this match, playing a five-setter would make a big dent in his chances anyway.

Absolutely,he may take this one because I think mentally Seppi has gone for an early shower !!! he has left the building. That does and can happen, but he does know that he will take all the gas from Fed's tank before he goes.
Bolelli did a bit of damage the other night taking a set.. the old boy aint what he used to be and its time everyone faced it.

Fed being slapped like a stray dog. 2:1 down on sets.