Ireland v England - Match Thread

[GunsGerms]

I know I am two weeks early but Ireland v England on Sunday 1st March will possibly be the 6 nations decider as both teams are the only two teams still undefeated in the 6 nations so far this year.

There are many different angles, plots and sub plots to this game. Here are some of the many things at stake:

Reaburn Shield:

Ireland have held it for 4 consecutive games having defeated previous holders SA in November.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raeburn_Shield

3rd place in rankings:



Triple Crown:

Only Ireland and England can still win this trophy and with due respect to Scotland and Wales who Ireland have yet to play to win it would be some achievement this year.

Grand Slam:

Only Ireland and England and win the slam.

6 nations title:
Obviously France and Wales are still in the running with only one loss but the bookies have Ireland and England as favorites at this point.

Millennium Trophy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Trophy

Eye on the WC:
The earliest Ireland and England could possibly meet at the WC is the Semi finals if they both win their pools and their quarter finals or both come runner up and win their quarters. Either way I think other fixtures such England v Wales and Ireland v France were more important for each nations WC preparations.

Ireland need one more win to tie their record of 10 sucessive wins.

Head to head record:
Overall: England 74 wins Ireland 46 wins
6Nations: England 7 wins Ireland 8 wins

Who is going to win and why?
http://www.espn.co.uk/six-nations-2015/rugby/story/256583.html
Phil Vickery predicts an England win.

Teams:

England:

Ireland:

[WELL-PAST-IT]

Things have turned on their heads this year, Ireland the team that cannot score tries but have a great defence. England scoring tries bit suddenly looking venerable in defence. Complete turnaround from last year.................or is it?

Ireland scored more tries than England last year but also had the better defence, hence the winning on points difference. England squeaked a win last year 13 - 10 having twice come back from behind and only really failed to get the slam because of a slow start against France in the first match in Paris (there is a pattern building here).

It's too close to call, but I think that Englands ability to consistantly come back having had a bad start will win through. That and I don't think the Irish side will have as much pace as England and "there is no substitute for pace". Just fancy May to have a good game and back himself for once.

[captain carrantuohil]

Think that the 6 Nations head to head is 8-7 Ireland (England in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2008 and 2012-14), but the point is well enough made that there hasn't been a fat lot in it much of the time in the recent history between these two.

An inveterate fence-sitter on this fixture, with equal skin on both sides of the parental game, I have ultimately tended towards Ireland in both of the last two fixtures and have consequently been wrong each time. In 2013, I reckoned that home advantage would be enough for the green; last year, I thought that England's highly unsettled front row at the time might be a crucial factor in Ireland's favour. As it turned out, England played the rotten weather more intelligently than Ireland two years ago. Last year a great game was decided, not up front, but by an uncharacteristic re-start error by Sexton in a match that was as even as it's possible to recall.

It's similar this time round. I see little between the sides - Sexton is potentially the match-winning X factor, but he hasn't had his best game against England in the last couple of years. Put a potentially exciting offence against an unyielding defence and I'll generally pick the side that you can guarantee will keep the score down. That means I'm with Ireland again, probably by a penalty or two in a game where the absence of mistakes will be crucial. I expect it to be absorbing, but light on tries and I'm quite prepared to be wrong again.

[GunsGerms]

Sorry you are right. I missed the first year.

[stub]

Heart says England but head says Ireland.. Why? Well, I think Ireland and England are fairly well matched at the moment but with home advantage and England's two shaky starts thus far Ireland will just have a bit too much in 2 weeks time IMO. Add to this the determination that Ireland showed in beating the French which I think shows a grim determination to win the slam and lay down a marker for the WC. I think Ireland are narrow favourites but still wouldn't be too surprised to see England cause an upset. It's going to be a corker that much is for sure.

[Notch]

Things have turned on their heads this year, Ireland the team that cannot score tries but have a great defence. England scoring tries bit suddenly looking venerable in defence. Complete turnaround from last year.................or is it?

Ireland scored more tries than England last year but also had the better defence, hence the winning on points difference. England squeaked a win last year 13 - 10 having twice come back from behind and only really failed to get the slam because of a slow start against France in the first match in Paris (there is a pattern building here).

It's too close to call, but I think that Englands ability to consistantly come back having had a bad start will win through. That and I don't think the Irish side will have as much pace as England and "there is no substitute for pace". Just fancy May to have a good game and back himself for once.

I think Irelands 'inability to score tries' is rather overstated and based on just two games, the France game is I think the first game where we have failed to score a try under Schmidt? We've been able to find ways to score tries against all of the big Southern Hemisphere teams at home in tight games.

I doubt this will be a high-scoring game but I would be extremely surprised if Ireland don't find their way over the line at some point.

[GunsGerms]

Spot on Notch. The game v France was also very stop start. There were something like 25 penalties awarded so it is really hard for either team to gain any momentum.

[captain carrantuohil]

Against England, Ireland have only managed one in the past three 6N games, Notch, so recent history is against Ireland in that respect. On the other hand, the relative lack of experience in the English back line may be contributing to a defensive system that doesn't always look as secure this year.

I'm fairly sure that Schmidt will be working on a slightly more balanced approach between the kicking/territorial game and the more expansive stuff. I would be equally surprised if Ireland didn't offload a lot more than twice on March 1st, if only because I think the best way to beat this English side is to keep them guessing. The kick to the wing is a great weapon but I wouldn't want to see it overused. I'm not sure that predictability, however iron-clad, disciplined and hard-nosed, will be enough, so I'd hope for a touch more variety from Ireland and I don't think that I'll be disappointed.

[GunsGerms]

Ireland penalty count under Schmidt vs opposition:
Ireland 11 v France 14
Ireland 7 v Italy 11
Ireland 5 v Australia 10
Ireland 9 v Georgia 16
Ireland 10 v South Africa 11
Ireland 6 v Argentina 12
Ireland 7 v Argentina 14
Ireland 9 v France 8
Ireland 2 v Italy 10
Ireland 9 v England 10
Ireland 9 v Wales 16
Ireland 7 v Scotland 11
Ireland 5 v New Zealand 8
Ireland 7 v Australia 15
Ireland 9 v Samoa 7


Only twice have Ireland conceded more penalties than their opposition so the dicipline is very good and one of the key factors that makes this Irish team hard to beat.

However, it is no surprise that Ireland conceded their most ever penalties with Barnes as ref. We have a poor win ratio when he refs.

[SecretFly]

Phil Vickery predicts an England win.

He also cooks a mean stew over nice oak.  Plus he'll be playing.  So he's biased

Anyway, yes - there seems to many 'rivers' of interest converging on this one - and you've plotted quite a few of them, Guns.  It's almost like the 'Star' of David over Bethlehem - which was also more of a convergence than a single star.

I Hope though that the Irish players aren't thinking about any of the records or facts about this meeting, and just instead thinking about staying competitive for the full 85 minutes (I always add another five to keep their concentration levels up!)

But seriously, that's as far as the thinking should go.  And in truth, most observers will just concentrate on WC hopes and/or Grand Slam potential of the eventual winner.  
It's a big game because England are pulsing stronger every month the WC approaches.  Their fitness systems seem to be giving all players the lungs to keep blasting for close to the full 80 at one enviable tempo.  
So playing England right now is a certain test of Ireland's credentials for that same WC.  Schmidt may still be fashioning his best side and still experimenting.  But the best experiment is the ones that work.  He'll want a win but will he try to do it by defending slim nervous gains or will he truly look to see can the team stretch forward more aggressively in attack?
England might force his hand and force Ireland to chase them.  Now that's when things will really become interesting.  That will be a true test of this Ireland side - it's methods, it's ability and its psychological strength.

[gregortree]

Against England, Ireland have only managed one in the past three 6N games, Notch, so recent history is against Ireland in that respect. On the other hand, the relative lack of experience in the English back line may be contributing to a defensive system that doesn't always look as secure this year.

I'm fairly sure that Schmidt will be working on a slightly more balanced approach between the kicking/territorial game and the more expansive stuff. I would be equally surprised if Ireland didn't offload a lot more than twice on March 1st, if only because I think the best way to beat this English side is to keep them guessing. The kick to the wing is a great weapon but I wouldn't want to see it overused. I'm not sure that predictability, however iron-clad, disciplined and hard-nosed, will be enough, so I'd hope for a touch more variety from Ireland and I don't think that I'll be disappointed.

Some truth in this Captain. But the Wales first try came from unexpected against-the drive-hand-in-scrum clever trickery from Felatau. Not sure this will repeat.
Vs Italy, England lost FB Brown early on and had to rearrange the backs into unfamiliar defensive positioning.
England have shown some devensive cracks, but the ones I just mentioned not likey to repeat.
The coaches will certainly be working on any more systemic defence weaknesses.

[fa0019]

I think the game looks to favour Ireland. Rankings would suggest a home victory when you calc. the +3points for playing at home.

Ireland have have let in 1 try though in 2 games and the team with the most stubborn defence looks like they will win the day. England on the other hand look less secure there.... and with Ford, Burrell and Joseph they are vunerable in the midfield.

Depends on the weather too. A good calm day would favour England IMO as they possess a good attacking game, poor weather and I think Ireland would have the better odds with a more secure 10.

England have what 4 wins on the trot vs Ireland but I'm not sure that will matter for much. If they get 5 I think it will start to play but at ome with a new team, new coach and a top class series performance in the AIs I think they should go in with.

Important match for both sides, its the most important for England certainly but I still think Wales in the MS will be Ireland's biggest challenge.

[Geordie]

It wont matter...judging by the rubbish being slung at Johnny May all Ireland have to do is target him and the game is theirs...

[SecretFly]

It wont matter...judging by the rubbish being slung at Johnny May all Ireland have to do is target him and the game is theirs...

Well to even things out - it seems Payne is the man getting most of the rubbish from our side...so England know who to target there.

[fa0019]

It wont matter...judging by the rubbish being slung at Johnny May all Ireland have to do is target him and the game is theirs...

You honestly happy with him mind?

You don't think a chap like Yarde would best him? Not only would I back Yarde in a footrace, he has more bulk and suits England's game plan more. England don't produce many overlaps enough for finishers. Yarde for me suits them better.

1 good try and then countless screw ups and lost opportunities isn't a great record to be fair.

[GunsGerms]

It wont matter...judging by the rubbish being slung at Johnny May all Ireland have to do is target him and the game is theirs...

Well to even things out - it seems Payne is the man getting most of the rubbish from our side...so England know who to target there.

Really? From who?

Payne was fine v France I thought. I reckon it was Sexton's fault for gunning the ball into his face for the botched overlap chance.

[captain carrantuohil]

Yes, poor old Payne, fancy not being able to catch Jonny's God-awful pass in his gob. Payne/Henshaw v Joseph/Burrell (if that's the way England's midfield pans out) is going to go a fair way to deciding the outcome, seeing as the two sides are so equal in so many other respects. As yet, it's far too early to say with certainty which pairing has an advantage.

[lostinwales]

It wont matter...judging by the rubbish being slung at Johnny May all Ireland have to do is target him and the game is theirs...

You honestly happy with him mind?

You don't think a chap like Yarde would best him? Not only would I back Yarde in a footrace, he has more bulk and suits England's game plan more. England don't produce many overlaps enough for finishers. Yarde for me suits them better.

1 good try and then countless screw ups and lost opportunities isn't a great record to be fair.

May is faster Yarde is stronger. May's defense is better. Yarde looked great when he first came into the England squad, made for international rugby (better of the two overall) but is way off that form. Despite the witch hunt May has done some good things too, more than just the one good try (and it was a very good try). England do have the pace to score from anywhere on the pitch

I am happy with him but he is this year's 36, and has a somewhat divided audience

[Notch]

It wont matter...judging by the rubbish being slung at Johnny May all Ireland have to do is target him and the game is theirs...

Well to even things out - it seems Payne is the man getting most of the rubbish from our side...so England know who to target there.

Really? From who?

Payne was fine v France I thought. I reckon it was Sexton's fault for gunning the ball into his face for the botched overlap chance.

Especially as Payne was running the decoy/holding line and was never likely to score from there, though I heard it was the swelling around Sextons eye that meant he couldn't see the players out wide. Not sure if true.

That chance should have been put away and it would have been a much more comfortable victory.

[SecretFly]

It wont matter...judging by the rubbish being slung at Johnny May all Ireland have to do is target him and the game is theirs...

Well to even things out - it seems Payne is the man getting most of the rubbish from our side...so England know who to target there.

Really? From who?

Payne was fine v France I thought. I reckon it was Sexton's fault for gunning the ball into his face for the botched overlap chance.

Jesus, Guns, ease up.  I'm toying with general reflections from the Irish threads on the Ireland game.  And Payne's name was mentioned quite often.  So I figured I'd infer he was last weekend's fall guy - there is always one every time.  Last week seems to be his turn for more flak than most Irish players.

Not you obviously, but then I never mentioned your name in the context so............. the 'from who?' question in misplaced.

[Poorfour]

What's at stake here is momentum. Ireland on their longest winning streak, England determined to build up a head of steam before the RWC.

A very tough one to call but I think the first 10 minutes of either half will be critical. I would expect either side to be able to defend a meaningful lead. If England concede early points it will be far tougher to come back against Ireland than against Wales or Italy - but conversely Ireland are likely to find scoring harder against England than they did against France.

Thus far, England have been the better team at pulling away in the second half. They seem to have their fitness and subs working well and the tactical adjustments at half time have had a big impact. I also think England probably have more potential to change things up by using their subs. If it's close at half time, I favour England. If Ireland can get a defensible lead in the first 20, they can hold on.

[SecretFly]

Nice work, Poorfour. That's about the gist of it okay.

[Submachine]

It wont matter...judging by the rubbish being slung at Johnny May all Ireland have to do is target him and the game is theirs...

Well to even things out - it seems Payne is the man getting most of the rubbish from our side...so England know who to target there.

Really? From who?

Payne was fine v France I thought. I reckon it was Sexton's fault for gunning the ball into his face for the botched overlap chance.

Especially as Payne was running the decoy/holding line and was never likely to score from there, though I heard it was the swelling around Sextons eye that meant he couldn't see the players out wide. Not sure if true.

That chance should have been put away and it would have been a much more comfortable victory.

There are no decoy runners. Everyone is an option. A players run may be used as a decoy or screen but equally they should be ready to receive the ball if the ball carrier should choose to give it. Sexton apparently could not see out of his left eye at the time which explains (but not excuses) the rocket to the face he gave Payne. If he was having difficulty seeing he should have taken himself out of the game.

[GunsGerms]

Especially as Payne was running the decoy/holding line and was never likely to score from there, though I heard it was the swelling around Sextons eye that meant he couldn't see the players out wide. Not sure if true.

That chance should have been put away and it would have been a much more comfortable victory.

If he was running a decoy line he was a couple of steps behind where he should have been IMO.

[Submachine]

Especially as Payne was running the decoy/holding line and was never likely to score from there, though I heard it was the swelling around Sextons eye that meant he couldn't see the players out wide. Not sure if true.

That chance should have been put away and it would have been a much more comfortable victory.

If he was running a decoy line he was a couple of steps behind where he should have been IMO.

There is no decoy line. You run a line, ball carrier decides to give it or not. If not, you become a decoy or a screen.

[SecretFly]

I'd say in theory you're 100% Sub - but I'd say in weekly training they might practice a move over and over where the one player does always play the decoy.
So I think it can be a case that the decoy never expects to get a pass (mentally) because he's just too interested in getting his mark right for his practiced decoy run?

Would that be a fair reading, Sub?

[BamBam]

I hope we're not going to have another 2 weeks of "Who's the underdog" like we did before the Wales game chaps

(in case its not obvious, England are the underdogs though )

[GunsGerms]

The moment Sexton passes to Payne he is almost exactly in line with Sexton and the two guys outside him. If he was a decoy Sexton should have been able to pass the ball behind Payne but that wasnt possible.

[Notch]

Especially as Payne was running the decoy/holding line and was never likely to score from there, though I heard it was the swelling around Sextons eye that meant he couldn't see the players out wide. Not sure if true.

That chance should have been put away and it would have been a much more comfortable victory.

If he was running a decoy line he was a couple of steps behind where he should have been IMO.

Agreed.

[The Fourth Lion]

As far as I'm concerned, there should only be one thing at stake for both teams when they run out:

Wanting to win the match because it is a match and rugby players should always play to win. Other considerations such as shields and grand slams and future world cups are peripheral things.

Just go out to win the game for its own sake and all the other considerations will take care of themselves.

[SecretFly]

Very persuasive Lion. But we got two weeks of twiddling thumbs here. So deep intake of breath and be prepared for a lot of theories about everything to fill the vacuum

[Geordie]

It wont matter...judging by the rubbish being slung at Johnny May all Ireland have to do is target him and the game is theirs...

You honestly happy with him mind?

You don't think a chap like Yarde would best him? Not only would I back Yarde in a footrace, he has more bulk and suits England's game plan more. England don't produce many overlaps enough for finishers. Yarde for me suits them better.

1 good try and then countless screw ups and lost opportunities isn't a great record to be fair.

He's not the finished article and he didn't have his best. But some of the stuff coming out about him is cr@p.

We've been going through wingers for fun recently...we have one here who just needs time and patience to bring the best out.

Yarde is good but WAY off that top form.
Wade for all his attacking ability is even more defensively dodgy at Prem level than people are making out that May is at International level.
Ashton is an appalling tackler - ironic that they would swap him for May.

May can tackle very well...he can take the high ball and can create tries...he's not just fast.

But we'll see.

Certainly the next game will test him massively.

[lostinwales]

At some point someone is going to complain about May not having his socks pulled up...

[Geordie]

At some point someone is going to complain about May not having his socks pulled up...

No they've done that already...that's what cost us going behind in the first 5 mins!

[Submachine]

I'd say in theory you're 100% Sub - but I'd say in weekly training they might practice a move over and over where the one player does always play the decoy.
So I think it can be a case that the decoy never expects to get a pass (mentally) because he's just too interested in getting his mark right for his practiced decoy run?

Would that be a fair reading, Sub?

Even at our fairly low (Leinster League) club level the backs options are coached in this way. Schmidt does not overcomplicate things so will have very few "moves" but each one will have multiple options. If you are not used in that option you may have a secondary job. Inside support, clear next ruck, get in the oppositions bleedin way but you always work on the assumption that you may get the ball.
I was at youths coaching seminar recently and they had the Ireland U18 backs coach demonstrating with video analysis where the same move and same running lines resulted in completely different outcomes depending on the option chosen. Some of the level of detail is just incredible even at that age but mostly it comes down to the ball carrier having numerous options and making the correct decision by reading whats in front of him.
As a simple example they showed a wrap around move. As the defenders shoulders were angled toward the ball carrier he took another couple of steps to draw and then gave the pass. In the same game off another wraparound the defenders shoulders were angled toward the man outside the ball carrier, he puts on the afterburners and tries to exploit a flat footed defender who has to change direction to try and make the tackle.

[quinsforever]

Too close to call

England better side IMO, but home advantage at the aviva is worth5-10 points with 50,000 refs in the crowd.

England won't concede as many penalties as France or Wales or Scotland though. Feels like England really back their ability to defend, and Ireland do not look dangerous ball in hand, apart from the gamble of high crossfield kick to Bowe.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

England have a lot of pace in the back three and JJ, I am not sure Ireland will want to kick the ball long very much, assuming Brown is fit, May and Watson have the out and out speed to cause too many problems, ask the ABs.

That means they are going to have to box kick a lot. How good is Murray at Box kicking?

Will England get the ascendency in the scrum, if so Murray might be in for a torrid time? If Heaslip is out, I would favour the English backrow, SoB seems a bit light to me at 8 (by English standards, now set at around 120kg anyway). England’s front row have beaten all comers in recent times, even their 2nd and 3rd choices. How well are the Irish front 3 playing.

You would think that the Irish locks had the edge, but the Welsh thought that as well.

Outside of the 1/2 backs and Bowe, I do not know enough about the Irish backs to comment other than they seem to be struggling in attack.

15 is about even I think if Brown plays anyway.

[BamBam]

Murray is an excellent box kicker IMO, gets real good distance and height on them (although saying that I didn't watch the France game, so he could have been complete cack and I'd be none the wiser)

[Gwlad]

Apparently nothing for England as they relish coming 2nd in the 6 Nations because it makes them feel consistent

[lostinwales]

Apparently nothing for England as they relish coming 2nd in the 6 Nations because it makes them feel consistent

Wales obviously get bored and like to change on a regular basis?

Please start another thread if you want another anglo welsh punch up.

[BamBam]

Preferably in the Fishing section of the board

[bedfordwelsh]

Said all along that there will be no slam this year and seen nothing for me to change my mind yet.

I think Ireland will beat England but and yes I know it's crazy and I will be laughed out of the room but I think Wales will beat Ireland in Cardiff.

[Gwlad]

Said all along that there will be no slam this year and seen nothing for me to change my mind yet.

I think Ireland will beat England but and yes I know it's crazy and I will be laughed out of the room but I think Wales will beat Ireland in Cardiff.

Room

{Bedford

Room

[Notch]

Said all along that there will be no slam this year and seen nothing for me to change my mind yet.

I think Ireland will beat England but and yes I know it's crazy and I will be laughed out of the room but I think Wales will beat Ireland in Cardiff.

Its not crazy. The teams are all very close. Don't discount the prospect of France beating England or Wales either.

[bedfordwelsh]

Said all along that there will be no slam this year and seen nothing for me to change my mind yet.

I think Ireland will beat England but and yes I know it's crazy and I will be laughed out of the room but I think Wales will beat Ireland in Cardiff.

Room

{Bedford

Room

On my way Gwlad lol

[GunsGerms]

Said all along that there will be no slam this year and seen nothing for me to change my mind yet.

I think Ireland will beat England but and yes I know it's crazy and I will be laughed out of the room but I think Wales will beat Ireland in Cardiff.

Its not crazy. The teams are all very close. Don't discount the prospect of France beating England or Wales either.

Scotland could also beat Ireland the way they are playing.

[SecretFly]

Too close to call

England better side IMO, but home advantage at the aviva is worth5-10 points with 50,000 refs in the crowd.

England won't concede as many penalties as France or Wales or Scotland though. Feels like England really back their ability to defend, and Ireland do not look dangerous ball in hand, apart from the gamble of high crossfield kick to Bowe.

Yes, and what was the score last year in Twickers, quins? 80,000 refs there. So Ireland really won that one given they came well in under the 5-10 points English advantage?

[WELL-PAST-IT]

Too close to call

England better side IMO, but home advantage at the aviva is worth5-10 points with 50,000 refs in the crowd.

England won't concede as many penalties as France or Wales or Scotland though. Feels like England really back their ability to defend, and Ireland do not look dangerous ball in hand, apart from the gamble of high crossfield kick to Bowe.

Yes, and what was the score last year in Twickers, quins?  80,000 refs there.  So Ireland really won that one given they came well in under the 5-10 points English advantage?

The trouble with Twickenham Fly, is that it is rarely an out and out home crowd, there are so many Irish, Scots, Welsh living in and around London that get their hands on tickets on top of the "away" allocation, we often get 20K away fans there.

So 80,000 refs, but not close to being all English.

Makes for a good laugh though, especially in the pub post game.......................one of the great things about rugby, most animosity is tongue in cheek.

[SecretFly]

Yep, Well-Past-It, I understand that dynamic - but again, out of a crowd of 80,000, I think a good average of the English contingent would still be in the 40 to 50,000 area at least ...and add to that that not all of the 50,000 crowd at Lansdowne will be Irish! (we got our own English and Scottish and SH expats too)

I'm just warning Quins not to be getting his excuses in early, because we could have used the same ones last year considering the final result.  If Ireland do win (and it'll be tough against a skilled and confident England) it'll be because they won fairy and squarely on the field - not using the crowd refs.

[Gwlad]

Who cares about excuses if Ireland win, the tourney is theirs and only a major foul up v Wales in Cardiff is going to hand it to anyone else, at that point, assuming Wales beat France which is unlikely, it will be a PD tournament again.

Ireland to win, England 2nd and France third IMO.

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