All Blacks less and less dominant under Hansen

• In 2012 The All Blacks averaged 33 points with a differential of 20
• In 2013 The All Blacks averaged 31 points with a differential of 13
• In 2014 The All Blacks averaged 28 points with a differential of 11

Are they heading towards a fall?

Is Hansen the coach the New Zealand public think he is?

http://www.theroar.com.au/2014/12/03/blacks-setting-world-cup-tumble/

Are they falling or have they simply reached the rugby plateau above which no side can go?

So as they linger there on their tippy toes, is it simply that the rest have now room to catch up and are doing so incrementally?

There is only so much you can do on an increasingly tight rugby field with 30 roughly equally trained athletes on it, all looking for physical dominance and space creation.

Its all that boring defensive rugby thats stopping them keeping up their points total. Plus the Irish havent visited in a while which accounted for a fair chunk of that points differential.

I had made this observation previously, though perhaps not on here. New Zealand definitely don't look as strong as they were a couple of seasons back, and have cut it fine on numerous occasions in 2014 - and yes, if they continue to slide or even just stay at the same level they are going to start losing some of those games. Though I have to add - if you're going to have a problem then slipping from being the best team by an unbelievable margin, to being the best team by a very large margin is probably a nice one to have.

Gooseberry wrote:Its all that boring defensive rugby thats stopping them keeping up their points total. Plus the Irish havent visited in a while which accounted for a fair chunk of that points differential.

... so the Irish obviously don't do boring defensive rugby if they contribute to the points differential. Hansen must be confused?

The Great Aukster wrote:

Gooseberry wrote:Its all that boring defensive rugby thats stopping them keeping up their points total. Plus the Irish havent visited in a while which accounted for a fair chunk of that points differential.

... so the Irish obviously don't do boring defensive rugby if they contribute to the points differential. Hansen must be confused?

They have played them at home and bored them to death. Still theres always the world cup final for you to recreate the glory of Christchurch, Im sure we will all be sat there on the edge of our seats watching the brave boys in green refusing to tackle and celebrating those tries as they stack up.
What the game needs is more one sided affairs with endless restarts. Stop defending, its not fair.

The gap is finally closing…but really don't buy this. They are still winning and when Carter learns to lace his boots again they will be back to their old ways. SA are shot, Aussie are teetering and England, while taking themselves up nicely for RWC, are hardly blossoming while they still try and fit 576 players into 23 jerseys. Ireland seem to me the only side worth mentioning as contenders for the RWC with their cosy draw, awesome coach, excellent replacement for BOD and masterful 10.

SA are shot?

Please elaborate.

Reading between the lines Biltong.

Ireland are the best there is, full stop.

It ain't Irish people remotely saying so

The talk-up artists to date have been mainly English or Australian or New Zealanders.

SecretFly wrote:It ain't Irish people remotely saying so  

The talk-up artists to date have been mainly English or Australian or New Zealanders.

Gwlad is mainly any of those. And Hansen (kiwi) hates your lot. Prettysure most of us English were busy being arrogant and not rating you even when you play well (or was that Scotland? I pay so much attention to myself I cant tell the difference and dont care anyway).
Right now pretty much everyone looks world class to the average Aussie.

Gooseberry wrote:

SecretFly wrote:It ain't Irish people remotely saying so  

The talk-up artists to date have been mainly English or Australian or New Zealanders.

Gwlad is mainly any of those. And Hansen (kiwi) hates your lot. Prettysure most of us English were busy being arrogant and not rating you even when you play well (or was that Scotland? I pay so much attention to myself I cant tell the difference and dont care anyway).
Right now pretty much everyone looks world class to the average Aussie.

Read the worldly papers Goose............ I do.  It's mostly anyone but the Irish who are talking the Irish up in World Cup terms.  We're just hoping and praying we get past Wales.

oops ps: When Hansen talks you down, that's his sighing way of talking you up

ps. When Irish fans goad AB fans (OP) it's a sign that Ireland is clearly the best team. RWC favourites indeed

ps - when Hansen yawns and shrugs his shoulders, he likes you lots - that's tearful emotion from him.

ps - when AB fan coaches Ireland he lets the ABs win in the final anyway.

ps - when Irish fan posts an Aussie article, that might be Aussie fans goading their neighbours?

ps............... oh I'm loving this PS game

ps. Geez, you are bullish, you've booked a place in the final already.

ps - That would be nice to get there without having to play. France did it last time.

ps -

ps - England 2007, France 2011 were two crappy teams to make a WC final. Aim higher

pps ignore me, too long at the hospital watching monitors

pps - really ignore me


ppps unless you want to the PAY ATTENTION

pppps nah ignore me please

Gooseberry wrote:

SecretFly wrote:It ain't Irish people remotely saying so  

The talk-up artists to date have been mainly English or Australian or New Zealanders.

Gwlad is mainly any of those. And Hansen (kiwi) hates your lot. Prettysure most of us English were busy being arrogant and not rating you even when you play well (or was that Scotland? I pay so much attention to myself I cant tell the difference and dont care anyway).
Right now pretty much everyone looks world class to the average Aussie.

Gooseberries always gave me a rash, you are no exception

I think what Hansen needs is a pair of these

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_yor5Od3yA

Good old Inverdale telling it like it is.

Gwlad wrote:I think what Hansen needs is a pair of these

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_yor5Od3yA

classic. he was obviously thinking "what a cu4t" and mixed it in with his interview. absolute classic.

Classic alright, he sounds so proper.

Serious question, are Ireland the new Wales? Taking the world by storm with Plan A.

Since the fall in 2009, NZ lost 1 game 2010,2 in 2011,1 in 2012,none in 2013,and 1 in
2014.
3 times to Australia,2 to South Africa,1 to England winning the 3Ns 2010,12,13 6-0 2014 5-1
plus a scraped RWC win [they all count]
I have`nt done the maths but think its something like 6 losses in 55 or so matches they
scraped as many wins 2013 as they did in 2014.
Certainly injuries to key players didn't help in 2014 and there did seem a fair bit of
experimentation there.
This year there inside backs at 10 are on fire it is a case of who misses out there depth
is legend.Carter sadly looks to have played his last RWC but Cruden/Slade with Barrett
and Taylor as utilities will do me.
This year think Australia to win 6Ns ,SA or Ireland the RWC ,NZ may have peaked but
other sides have to reach it too.

You made some good points Tman, unfortunately others won't have seen the post.

ABs v Ireland 2012

42-10
22-19
60-0

An aggregate score of 124-29 (diff 95!!)

ABs v England 2014

20-15
28-27
36-13

Aggregate score 84-55 (diff 29)

The stats are skewed by Ireland in 2012

I know, thought the post was ill thought through.

2013 was also the most successful pro calendar year.

2014 was scratchy, but all trophies won.

Numbers put that way don't mean anything on their own, but anyway, each to their own. We have a while to go and things will start winding up nicely ebop!!

emack2 wrote:Since the fall in 2009, NZ lost 1 game 2010,2 in 2011,1 in 2012,none in 2013,and 1 in
2014.
3 times to Australia,2 to South Africa,1 to England winning the 3Ns 2010,12,13 6-0 2014 5-1
plus a scraped RWC win [they all count]
I have`nt done the maths but think its something like 6 losses in 55 or so matches they
scraped as many wins 2013 as they did in 2014.
Certainly injuries to key players didn't help in 2014 and there did seem a fair bit of
experimentation there.
This year there inside backs at 10 are on fire it is a case of who misses out there depth
is legend.Carter sadly looks to have played his last RWC but Cruden/Slade with Barrett
and Taylor as utilities will do me.
This year think Australia to win 6Ns ,SA or Ireland the RWC ,NZ may have peaked but
other sides have to reach it too.

Hi Alan yes I think Hansens little dilemma is how to guarantee a good goal kicker is on the field in the last 20 minutes, Cruden not being in that category. Slade for me is the best of ours by some distance and has already potted pressure goals at the death. Could be that Slade subs for any of Savea, right wing or Ben Smith and Barrett for the inside backs.

I wrote DC off long ago. His susceptibility for injury is now complete...its a medical certainty.

On Ireland, the challenge for the World Cup is massive.

They've not made a semi in seven tournaments
If they do they will almost certainly be playing a nation that has played 3 finals...NZ, Fra, Oz, Eng, SA all have won 3 semi finals previously.

All but France have one it, three twice.

So in making the semi, it will be a first. In winning one, huge.

The other issue for Ireland is their reliance on Sexton. Of all the sides Ireland probably rely on Sexton more than anyone else relies on any single player.

He is the type of player that should he be injured and out of the tournament by the time that semi is played, Irelands chances would plummet. And with his slight build, and the fact that any side playing Ireland know if he is off the field, their chances improve considerably.

So expect Sexton to be targeted, for certain. So how Schmidt manages Sexton this year is critical.

And should he play the semi, the pressure on Sexton particularly will be immense, and we've seen versus the ABs that the occasion can get to him.

Will Gatland take over the AB's post RWC? I'd love to see it happen

yappysnap wrote:Will Gatland take over the AB's post RWC? I'd love to see it happen

I'd plain give up if Schmidt gets the job.

ebop wrote:Reading between the lines Biltong.

Ireland are the best there is, full stop.

The article referenced is by a New Zealand fan who is concerned.

Taylorman wrote:On Ireland, the challenge for the World Cup is massive.

They've not made a semi in seven tournaments
If they do they will almost certainly be playing a nation that has played 3 finals...NZ, Fra, Oz, Eng, SA all have won 3 semi finals previously.

All but France have one it, three twice.

So in making the semi, it will be a first. In winning one, huge.

The other issue for Ireland is their reliance on Sexton. Of all the sides Ireland probably rely on Sexton more than anyone else relies on any single player.

He is the type of player that should he be injured and out of the tournament by the time that semi is played, Irelands chances would plummet. And with his slight build, and the fact that any side playing Ireland know if he is off the field, their chances improve considerably.

So expect Sexton to be targeted, for certain. So how Schmidt manages Sexton this year is critical.

And should he play the semi, the pressure on Sexton particularly will be immense, and we've seen versus the ABs that the occasion can get to him.

I dont think Ireland relies on Sexton any more than NZ relied on McCaw or England on Wilkinson or SA on DuPreez when these sides won the WC. Even when Carter got injured NZ really struggled. Every team has key players.

Yes Sexton is vital there is no doubt however, we have other very key players too such as Murray and POC for example.

The rise and fall of trams is just a myth.

Everyone is where they are supposed to be in pecking order most of the time.

There are temporary abnormalities, but they usually never lsst.

Most trends revert to the mean over time, in this case that means NZ are going to be at the top or very near to it the majority of the time.

The points difference in the OP is a bit of a red herring I think as it depends on who they were playing. As mentioned above, an absolute smashing of Ireland a few years back boosted that score. In 2015 their points scored and diff. will be huge as they are playing teams like Namibia in the WC, who will do well to keep the score below 3 figures.

Biltong wrote:The rise and fall of trams is just a myth.

Everyone is where they are supposed to be in pecking order most of the time.

There are temporary abnormalities, but they usually never lsst.

That's quite a fatalistic attitude no?

The Trams will make a comeback!

We're even seeing it now how clogged modern cities still are, even with all the underground rail networks etc etc. So Trams would be a partial solution when mixed with other ideas.

GunsGerms wrote:

Biltong wrote:The rise and fall of trams is just a myth.

Everyone is where they are supposed to be in pecking order most of the time.

There are temporary abnormalities, but they usually never lsst.

That's quite a fatalistic attitude no?

It is not an attitude, it is the way it is with sport. Each country has a certain number of resources, talent, facilities etc. Which means they need to drastically change those factors to improve their general pecking order in the sport.

One of those ways are to poach project players, other than that, things stay pretty much the same, unless they go through a period of unusual talent.

You can compare clubs rugby to international rugby.

Currently it is easier for a club to lift their standings given enough money, the only thing standing in the way of International teams is qualification.

There are of course temporary anomalies or 'abnormalities' as Bilt describes them.  Yes, that's true.  You could even argue that everytime Wales wins a Six nations title it's an 'abnormality' as Wales are a violently swinging side in form and have drops every bit as sharp as their rises.  The normally steady sides of England, France and Ireland may have less sharp rises but their falls tend to be gentler too.

But Wales doesn't care - it has still won a bunch of stuff as it rose dramatically and fell off abruptly through 6N history.

New Century, new millennium.  Things do change.  Spheres of influence do change with time.  None of us really know where rugby is going in the next 40 or 50 years.

Taylorman wrote:On Ireland, the challenge for the World Cup is massive.

They've not made a semi in seven tournaments
If they do they will almost certainly be playing a nation that has played 3 finals...NZ, Fra, Oz, Eng, SA all have won 3 semi finals previously.

All but France have one it, three twice.

So in making the semi, it will be a first. In winning one, huge.

The other issue for Ireland is their reliance on Sexton. Of all the sides Ireland probably rely on Sexton more than anyone else relies on any single player.

He is the type of player that should he be injured and out of the tournament by the time that semi is played, Irelands chances would plummet. And with his slight build, and the fact that any side playing Ireland know if he is off the field, their chances improve considerably.

So expect Sexton to be targeted, for certain. So how Schmidt manages Sexton this year is critical.

And should he play the semi, the pressure on Sexton particularly will be immense, and we've seen versus the ABs that the occasion can get to him.

Eh

Sexton = God to Ireland = only hope
Schmidt = understanding of common perception
Schmidt = good coach
Sexton = good enough to get constant hassle and 'targeting' in every game he plays
Schmidt = good coach
Schmidt = understanding that Sexton will get constant hassle and 'targeting' in every game he plays.
Schmidt = planning for not having Sexton due to injury loss, due to 'targeting'
Schmidt = Plan B or C
Sexton = Not God = Not Only Hope

Biltong wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:

Biltong wrote:The rise and fall of trams is just a myth.

Everyone is where they are supposed to be in pecking order most of the time.

There are temporary abnormalities, but they usually never lsst.

That's quite a fatalistic attitude no?

It is not an attitude, it is the way it is with sport. Each country has a certain number of resources, talent, facilities etc. Which means they need to drastically change those factors to improve their general pecking order in the sport.

One of those ways are to poach project players, other than that, things stay pretty much the same, unless they go through a period of unusual talent.

You can compare clubs rugby to international rugby.

Currently it is easier for a club to lift their standings given enough money, the only thing standing in the way of International teams is qualification.

Are you a guns and roses fan? Axel Rose said that nothing lasts forever like the cold November rain. That can be said of all rugby nations. Hungary's incredible football team of the 1950s were unplayable but Hungary are mere minnows now.

SecretFly wrote:Sexton = God to Ireland = only hope
Schmidt = understanding of common perception
Schmidt = good coach
Sexton = good enough to get constant hassle and 'targeting' in every game he plays
Schmidt = good coach
Schmidt = understanding that Sexton will get constant hassle and 'targeting' in every game he plays.
Schmidt = planning for not having Sexton due to injury loss, due to 'targeting'
Schmidt = Plan B or C
Sexton = Not God = Not Only Hope

I'm pretty confident Schmidt will be working on a Plan B, C, D etc. I thought last year that the Leinster game was the next logical piece of the puzzle...but...maybe he won't. Or maybe he won't get there in time. I think he's too good to limit them to the current tactics, but it's still a maybe right now isn't it?

SecretFly wrote:The Trams will  make a comeback!

We're even seeing it now how clogged modern cities still are, even with all the underground rail networks etc etc.  So Trams would be a partial solution when mixed with other ideas.

In Syd we now have something called 'Light Rail' but they do look suspiciously like a couple of trams stuck together.

GunsGerms wrote:

Biltong wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:

Biltong wrote:The rise and fall of trams is just a myth.

Everyone is where they are supposed to be in pecking order most of the time.

There are temporary abnormalities, but they usually never lsst.

That's quite a fatalistic attitude no?

It is not an attitude, it is the way it is with sport. Each country has a certain number of resources, talent, facilities etc. Which means they need to drastically change those factors to improve their general pecking order in the sport.

One of those ways are to poach project players, other than that, things stay pretty much the same, unless they go through a period of unusual talent.

You can compare clubs rugby to international rugby.

Currently it is easier for a club to lift their standings given enough money, the only thing standing in the way of International teams is qualification.

Are you a guns and roses fan? Axel Rose said that nothing lasts forever like the cold November rain. That can be said of all rugby nations. Hungary's incredible football team of the 1950s were unplayable but Hungary are mere minnows now.

That said if world rankings had existed in rugby in the 1950's then NZ and SA would probably have been at the top, followed by Australia and the 5 Nations teams, little has changed today except the tier below that has become more cut off from the top as professionalism has come in.

Nothing lasts forever, true, go look at why Hungary's football team are no longer a powerhouse,

Hood83 wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Will Gatland take over the AB's post RWC? I'd love to see it happen

I'd plain give up if Schmidt gets the job.

Definitely

Biltong wrote:Nothing lasts forever, true, go look at why Hungary's football team are no longer a powerhouse,

Hungarian team of the 50s was a convergence of great players at the same time and had a brief period of dominance. SA and NZ have been at the top for decades and decades.

GunsGerms wrote:

Taylorman wrote:On Ireland, the challenge for the World Cup is massive.

They've not made a semi in seven tournaments
If they do they will almost certainly be playing a nation that has played 3 finals...NZ, Fra, Oz, Eng, SA all have won 3 semi finals previously.

All but France have one it, three twice.

So in making the semi, it will be a first. In winning one, huge.

The other issue for Ireland is their reliance on Sexton. Of all the sides Ireland probably rely on Sexton more than anyone else relies on any single player.

He is the type of player that should he be injured and out of the tournament by the time that semi is played, Irelands chances would plummet. And with his slight build, and the fact that any side playing Ireland know if he is off the field, their chances improve considerably.

So expect Sexton to be targeted, for certain. So how Schmidt manages Sexton this year is critical.

And should he play the semi, the pressure on Sexton particularly will be immense, and we've seen versus the ABs that the occasion can get to him.

I dont think Ireland relies on Sexton any more than NZ relied on McCaw or England on Wilkinson or SA on DuPreez when these sides won the WC. Even when Carter got injured NZ really struggled. Every team has key players.

Yes Sexton is vital there is no doubt however, we have other very key players too such as Murray and POC for example.

This year I was referring to. We have gone for many tests without McCaw and Carter had never been a key player in any World Cup. McCaw was key in the 11 final, yes.

Sexton is Ireland's Wilko. England would have struggled in 03 had Wilko not played that tournament, and it took him to be the difference ultimately.

If neither played this year the ABs would cope, Ireland wouldn't without Sexton and from what I've seen, his seconds are struggling.

The combination of winning a semi and keeping sexton injury free puts Ireland in a position where it will need some rub of the green to succeed, the World cup the most unforgiving arena for the most part, Lady Luck deserting many a side at that stage, be it injury, red cards, or refereeing.

Overcoming all those factors will be Ireland's biggest test.

For NZ McCaw and Carter may not be as key anymore but Read and Retallick perhaps are? In any case I do think that McCaw is still a key player for NZ.

Ireland have coped ok when Madigan has come on. He guided Ireland to a win in Argentina in the summer and Keatley played pretty well v Italy in the 6 nations. Neither player is anywhere as good as Sexton but they are both decent and if we lose Sexton Murray starts to pull the strings at 9 which helps a lot.

yappysnap wrote:

Hood83 wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Will Gatland take over the AB's post RWC? I'd love to see it happen

I'd plain give up if Schmidt gets the job.

Definitely

Schmidts done no more than what Gatland has with Wales. NZ doesn't need a coach that can take it from something like 8th to 3rd by just putting the right things in place to allow the team to maximise it's opportunities. Ireland are much the same side pre Schmidt with BOD probably the biggest exception, at least in terms of their key players...Sexton, POC etc. it's one thing getting a side into the main arena, another keeping it there.

In saying that Gats has done his chips On NZ. He's too NH oriented now, too set in his ways and had shown he's not the innovative type that NZ needs to keep it where it is.

Schmidts shaping well, but it's early days...give him a couple more seasons, but for sure he's starting to tick the right boxes.