Who will win the Championship?

by **Notch** Sat 14 Mar 2015, 11:59 pm

First topic message reminder :

The top three teams are tied going into the final weekend and assuming all three teams win their games, the title is likely to be decided by who can score the most on the day.

First game, 3rd place Wales play Italy in Rome at 12.30. Wales have a points difference of +12, so will need to win by at least 30 points to have any chance, probably need 40+ for that chance to be realistic.

In the second game 2nd place Ireland play Scotland in Murrayfield at 14.30, they have a points difference of +33 and will need a convincing win- and to hope France turn up in London.

Final game, current leaders England play France at Twickenham at 17.00. They have a points difference of +37 and as the last team to play, they have the sizeable advantage of knowing exactly what the margin of victory will need to be for them to win the title. They will need to be more clinical than they were against Scotland, the title could be all but settled by now if they took all their chances

by SecretFly Mon 16 Mar 2015, 9:45 am

oh pardon moi... it's already cleared up.... Whistle

by SecretFly Mon 16 Mar 2015, 9:47 am

Nachos Jones_1 wrote:Careful there Fly, must not think or say such things for fear of being labeled me

3RD WOULD BE FAIL, FOLKS!!!!! Don't blame Nachos for the thought, supposition, arrogant suggestion or implied treason....blame me Wink

That's the best I can do with that, Nachos. Pass any threats directly onto me...... Cool

by **Notch** Mon 16 Mar 2015, 9:55 am

SecretFly wrote:3rd would be Fail for us.
Big fail when doing an assessment of intensity games in a short period of time. It's always been an Irish weakness - stringing three or four, or even two really intense games together in a tight timeframe that would mimic the WC.
That's been a major weakness; and if Scotland get the better of us, or even keep us too close to be in the running for 1st, then that's a major failure of the system again.

Joe must pick the players doing the hardest stuff in training. He doesn't have the leisure to be picking players to get them back to form. There was more than one of those players on the team at the weekend!
If the title is there to be had, then recalls for a few dropped players should be on the cards.

3rd would be a failure if we lose to Scotland, but not a particularly disappointing result if we finish with 8 points. That would be almost exactly the same as last years title winning performance- 4 functional wins and 1 away game were several players had an off day but we still were close on the scoreboard.

There would be things to work on, but before the Six Nations started most people were of the mind that no-one would win the Slam. No way is 8 points a failure. I agree we're only playing at around 60%, 70%. But that augurs well for the World Cup, we've not hit our potential and yet we were still able to put a run of 10 wins together. I'd be more concerned if we were playing out of our skins and not able to contend for the title.

by Gooseberry Mon 16 Mar 2015, 9:55 am

MissBlennerhassett wrote:
Gooseberry wrote:
MissBlennerhassett wrote:
Gooseberry wrote:
MissBlennerhassett wrote:How can anyone in their right mind have England as favourites?

It's clearly Ireland's for the taking, and Wales should push them very close. England have to first beat France, which is a big doubt, let alone by any significant points margin. In fact if France win, which they could easily, has anyone worked out by what score they would finish 3rd, demoting England to 4th?

France would have to win by 8 to go ahead of England. I see youve fallen into the same trap of arrogance there and assumed Wales and Ireland will also win.

In terms of the chances of a French win, ahead of the tournament they wouldve been seen as a lot higher than they are now. People have a hard time understanding how France can be so consistently woeful, and assumed there must be some level of improvement on last year. if anything, especially last weekend, they have been even worse and now dont even have reliable goal kicking.
Yes they are the strongest of the three opponents but still massively flawed.

England conversely have been fairly good, about at their usual level and have a near full strength squad for a change. France havent got a clue who to pick or anything resembling a team.

Look at recent results at Twickenham, England won the last 3. And twice that was against fairly strong French sides rather than one at a low ebb.
The biggest margin of victory France have ever managed away to England is 8 points (1951).

In that context its not wholly surprising people have England as strong favourites for this game is it? Certainly them getting bumped to 4th would be "a thing".

In terms of the title its a much closer call. Ireland and Wales do have weak opponents, but are playing away. I wouldnt be amazed to see Wales hit by some withdrawals following the battering they took in their win this weekend. Certainly I can't see them being able to play with that level of aggression for a second week in a row. Italy were horrid though and are ripe for the picking, the lack of goal kicking will make life a lot easier for Wales. Im going to say this, Wales are also the weakest of the three top sides.
Irelands opponents are a little bit tougher but again falling apart at the seams. So they should win and win comfortably, but Ireland do have a defensive approach to the game which hasnt yielded a great deal of points for them so far. Building up a cricket score may not be so easy for them.

The beauty of the 6 nations though is that anyone confidently predicting anything usually ends up with egg on their faces. I would expect Wales England Ireland to win their games, the title is anyones guess. Recent history has shown the final weekend can throw up as many surprises as the other weekends and come from behind winners are not unknown, screw stick your mortgage payments on France.

Nice arrogance there Gooseberry! What are you on?

Ok sorry, I guess Italy have a good chance.

I must be an absolute numpkin to expect favourites to win, not assume mind...just expect.

But when I do, I'm falling in to "an arrogance trap"?

You couldn't make this stuff up!

Your posted had the absolute assumption that England would finish 4th if France beat them by enough, thats the difference. Jesus it was a throw away remark anyway. Get over it!
Rather than getting into a ding doing argument ( lets not forget you started this whole thing by insulting anyone who thought england might win the game) how about indulging in some rational discussion based on why people think England are likely to win their game, and have a strong shot at winning the title.

i dont think anyones taking anything for granted mind (except in your post boxing

)

Looking at the relative qualities of France and Englands play this year, the context of the fixture, the recent and long term historical record of the fixture what makes you think people must be mad for thinking England have a good opportunity to win comfortably? (Aside form their epic abilities demonstrated in recent years to chuck away titles/slams)

Genuine question.

by lostinwales Mon 16 Mar 2015, 10:06 am

Notch wrote:
SecretFly wrote:3rd would be Fail for us.
Big fail when doing an assessment of intensity games in a short period of time. It's always been an Irish weakness - stringing three or four, or even two really intense games together in a tight timeframe that would mimic the WC.
That's been a major weakness; and if Scotland get the better of us, or even keep us too close to be in the running for 1st, then that's a major failure of the system again.

Joe must pick the players doing the hardest stuff in training. He doesn't have the leisure to be picking players to get them back to form. There was more than one of those players on the team at the weekend!
If the title is there to be had, then recalls for a few dropped players should be on the cards.

3rd would be a failure if we lose to Scotland, but not a particularly disappointing result if we finish with 8 points. That would be almost exactly the same as last years title winning performance- 4 functional wins and 1 away game were several players had an off day but we still were close on the scoreboard.

There would be things to work on, but before the Six Nations started most people were of the mind that no-one would win the Slam. No way is 8 points a failure. I agree we're only playing at around 60%, 70%. But that augurs well for the World Cup, we've not hit our potential and yet we were still able to put a run of 10 wins together. I'd be more concerned if we were playing out of our skins and not able to contend for the title.

I'd be actively concerned that you haven' been able to put in a truly top all round performance though. Your defense and aspects of your game are currently second to none, but even New Zealand find an extra gear on the right occasions (as you and us both know....)

by SecretFly Mon 16 Mar 2015, 10:11 am

Notch wrote:

3rd would be a failure if we lose to Scotland, but not a particularly disappointing result if we finish with 8 points. That would be almost exactly the same as last years title winning performance- 4 functional wins and 1 away game were several players had an off day but we still were close on the scoreboard.

To lose a Slam and hit 3rd within two final games is a sign that our conditioning is again downward from a high starting point - not good news for a World Cup that gets tougher as it goes along.

The Wales game was lost in the first half when we didn't have anything like the intensity that is required to compete with Wales on their home turf. People can blame Barnes all they like - but Ireland played sub standard tempo all the way through that first half.

Now we have to show that we can start where the second half left off and go for a full 80 at a much more aggressive pace. If we fail to do that, that's a sign that we're struggling to do it because all players still know a title is up for grabs and scores will be required to keep in the hunt. The motive is there. Winning isn't enough for the competitive spirit of a team allegedly wanting to go far in the WC.

But it does become pointed how much we all differ in our reading of the season so far and indeed of individual games. It's interesting how we all think we're at different stages of our development and have differing issues to sort out. And we're all watching the same games! Yahoo

Poor Joe - now we know how complicated life is at the top.

by MissBlennerhassett Mon 16 Mar 2015, 10:15 am

SecretFly wrote:
Gooseberry wrote:

Ok sorry, I guess Italy have a good chance.

I must be an absolute numpkin to expect favourites to win, not assume mind...just expect.

Goose, isn't she referring to the idea in your own post that she was being a touch arrogant in assuming the same thing? That Italy would lose and Wales, Ireland and England would win?

Firstly, yes Fly, it was referring to that but by pointing that out, aren't we being a touch arrogant? Very Happy

Secondly, "she" is a he (for the umpteenth time), has no one seel Withnail and I??? Time to change my handle, bye bye Miss Blennerhassett, the drunks have left the tea room!

by **Notch** Mon 16 Mar 2015, 10:51 am

SecretFly wrote:
Notch wrote:

3rd would be a failure if we lose to Scotland, but not a particularly disappointing result if we finish with 8 points. That would be almost exactly the same as last years title winning performance- 4 functional wins and 1 away game were several players had an off day but we still were close on the scoreboard.

To lose a Slam and hit 3rd within two final games is a sign that our conditioning is again downward from a high starting point - not good news for a World Cup that gets tougher as it goes along.

The Wales game was lost in the first half when we didn't have anything like the intensity that is required to compete with Wales on their home turf. People can blame Barnes all they like - but Ireland played sub standard tempo all the way through that first half.

Sorry- it isn't a sign of that at all. We didn't hit the tempo we needed in the first half, but that was due to us not hitting the tempo we needed in the first half. Sometimes teams just come out cold and it has more to do with psychology and mentality than conditioning. I don't think conditioning comes into it to be perfectly honest. A collective failure to perform at the tempo needed can be caused by many factors. I don't think we look tired at all. We look like we are struggling to generate intensity in general in our game plan and have done in every game, several players in the pack are not at 100%. This is a major concern, but we didn't start strong and run out of gas. We've been pretty much at this level right through the championship and I will go back to my incessant point- if you aren't crossing the gain line you can't generate quick ball, no quick ball, no intensity. What was disappointing in the Wales game is that we had little intensity in defence at first but very few sides would have been able to stop Wales storming into an early lead the way they came flying out of the blocks.

We always knew if we lost we were likely to potentially finish 2nd or 3rd because we only had two home games against hard teams so there isn't much opportunity to rack up the points. I don't think it is indicative of anything other than Ireland have failed to reveal their full potential as a side thus far.

by SecretFly Mon 16 Mar 2015, 10:56 am

MissBlennerhassett wrote:
SecretFly wrote:
Gooseberry wrote:

Ok sorry, I guess Italy have a good chance.

I must be an absolute numpkin to expect favourites to win, not assume mind...just expect.

Goose, isn't she referring to the idea in your own post that she was being a touch arrogant in assuming the same thing? That Italy would lose and Wales, Ireland and England would win?

Firstly, yes Fly, it was referring to that but by pointing that out, aren't we being a touch arrogant? Secondly, "she" is a he (for the umpteenth time), has no one seel Withnail and I??? Time to change my handle, bye bye Miss Blennerhassett, the drunks have left the tea room!

No I bloody didn't see Withnail and I!!!!!! Wink

I'm much too busy being a oracle of Truth and Justice on 606!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So you're a he??? Thank God!! - although I was getting very fond of you as a 'she' Wink

by GunsGerms Mon 16 Mar 2015, 10:58 am

Notch wrote:

Sorry- it isn't a sign of that at all. We didn't hit the tempo we needed in the first half, but that was due to us not hitting the tempo we needed in the first half. Sometimes teams just come out cold and it has more to do with psychology and mentality than conditioning. I don't think conditioning comes into it to be perfectly honest. A collective failure to perform at the tempo needed can be caused by many factors. I don't think we look tired at all. We look like we are struggling to generate intensity in general in our game plan and have done in every game, several players in the pack are not at 100%. This is a major concern, but we didn't start strong and run out of gas. We've been pretty much at this level right through the championship and I will go back to my incessant point- if you aren't crossing the gain line you can't generate quick ball, no quick ball, no intensity. What was disappointing in the Wales game is that we had little intensity in defence at first but very few sides would have been able to stop Wales storming into an early lead the way they came flying out of the blocks.

We always knew if we lost we were likely to potentially finish 2nd or 3rd because we only had two home games against hard teams so there isn't much opportunity to rack up the points. I don't think it is indicative of anything other than Ireland have failed to reveal their full potential as a side thus far.

I have to agree. Not sure how Ireland can be accused of looking tired when they injected so much tempo into the game in the last 10 minutes. The fitness looked very good.

by SecretFly Mon 16 Mar 2015, 11:02 am

Notch wrote:
SecretFly wrote:
Notch wrote:

3rd would be a failure if we lose to Scotland, but not a particularly disappointing result if we finish with 8 points. That would be almost exactly the same as last years title winning performance- 4 functional wins and 1 away game were several players had an off day but we still were close on the scoreboard.

To lose a Slam and hit 3rd within two final games is a sign that our conditioning is again downward from a high starting point - not good news for a World Cup that gets tougher as it goes along.

The Wales game was lost in the first half when we didn't have anything like the intensity that is required to compete with Wales on their home turf. People can blame Barnes all they like - but Ireland played sub standard tempo all the way through that first half.

Sorry- it isn't a sign of that at all. We didn't hit the tempo we needed in the first half, but that was due to us not hitting the tempo we needed in the first half. Sometimes teams just come out cold and it has more to do with psychology and mentality than conditioning.

I don't think conditioning comes into it to be perfectly honest. A collective failure to perform at the tempo needed can be caused by many factors. I don't think we look tired at all. We look like we are struggling to generate intensity in general in our game plan and have done in every game, several players in the pack are not at 100%. This is a major concern, but we didn't start strong and run out of gas. We've been pretty much at this level right through the championship and I will go back to my incessant point- if you aren't crossing the gain line you can't generate quick ball, no quick ball, no intensity. What was disappointing in the Wales game is that we had little intensity in defence at first but very few sides would have been able to stop Wales storming into an early lead the way they came flying out of the blocks.

We always knew if we lost we were likely to potentially finish 2nd or 3rd because we only had two home games against hard teams so there isn't much opportunity to rack up the points. I don't think it is indicative of anything other than Ireland have failed to reveal their full potential as a side thus far.

Condition is being 100%, Notch. Several players in the Back are as off 100% as the few in the Pack.
But anyway, just more proof that we seldom ever agree Notch. Completely different world views on everything it seems. Wink

That was my last point. How different we all look at the same games.

by **Notch** Mon 16 Mar 2015, 11:06 am

I think players are not at top form, not they are poorly conditioned or struggling with their fitness.

by SecretFly Mon 16 Mar 2015, 11:13 am

GunsGerms wrote:
Notch wrote:

Sorry- it isn't a sign of that at all. We didn't hit the tempo we needed in the first half, but that was due to us not hitting the tempo we needed in the first half. Sometimes teams just come out cold and it has more to do with psychology and mentality than conditioning. I don't think conditioning comes into it to be perfectly honest. A collective failure to perform at the tempo needed can be caused by many factors. I don't think we look tired at all. We look like we are struggling to generate intensity in general in our game plan and have done in every game, several players in the pack are not at 100%. This is a major concern, but we didn't start strong and run out of gas. We've been pretty much at this level right through the championship and I will go back to my incessant point- if you aren't crossing the gain line you can't generate quick ball, no quick ball, no intensity. What was disappointing in the Wales game is that we had little intensity in defence at first but very few sides would have been able to stop Wales storming into an early lead the way they came flying out of the blocks.

We always knew if we lost we were likely to potentially finish 2nd or 3rd because we only had two home games against hard teams so there isn't much opportunity to rack up the points. I don't think it is indicative of anything other than Ireland have failed to reveal their full potential as a side thus far.

I have to agree. Not sure how Ireland can be accused of looking tired when they injected so much tempo into the game in the last 10 minutes. The fitness looked very good.

I'll tell you how that can work Guns.

How did the games against England and France go? All the work done mostly in the first half, then gasping for air in the last 10 to 15.

It's resourcing the energy you have to get to 80. So, Ireland are away to a Wales they knew would come at them from the beginning - so reserve energy for the second half this time?
Certainly a workable theory. But it suggests a degree of compromise to get through 80 - which suggests form and conditioning is not right yet.

Irish Provincial performances to date strongly suggest the same. Perhaps its a design in preparation for being more finely tuned later in the year. I don't know but I sense what I sense.
It's not outlandish though to suggest Ireland are not where they should be condition wise at this point in the season. Indeed, some of our returning puffers prove that it's true.

by **rodders** Mon 16 Mar 2015, 11:51 am

Heart says Ireland....head says England.....gut says Wales.

Ireland should be able to beat Scotland (with respect), but can't see more than one or 2 scores....Scotland have been tight in all their games and Ireland have struggled to score tries.

Prediction Ireland by 10-12 points

England should beat France, who hate Twickenham but actually with no pressure may go out and have their game of the championship - they looked powerful enough versus and Italy side that England had problems with. France could pull of a upset but think England will be too hungry and grind it out.

Prediction England by 5-7

Wales are the team with momentum and Italy look there for the taking and always are at the weakest in the final game.

Prediction Wales by 40-50.

Therefore I predict final table will be:-

Wales
Ireland
England
France
Italy
Scotland

by captain carrantuohil Mon 16 Mar 2015, 12:52 pm

I remember Ireland coming unstitched in Rome on the last day a couple of years ago; Scotland too in 2012. Not sure about the last-day blues theory, although Italy will have to bounce back a long way from that pitiful effort on Sunday.

I'd row in with the Wales by 40 theory if it weren't for the fact that the front-row stocks look really thin after last weekend's slugfest. Wales need a lot of quick ball, really quick, and it may not be so easy to get it. I can certainly see a 20 point win, possibly even 30, but the extra ten that Wales will probably need? Difficult; it's so easy to chuck an interception try away or a couple of silly penalties when you have to force the pace and then you have to find another score yourself. Not impossible, but unlikely.

Pretty much agree with those other predictions. I still have a slight feeling that England will pinch it but I shall be interested to see whether Robshaw has learned anything about game management and tactics if the points situation becomes buttock-clenchingly tight with fifteen minutes to go on Saturday. He's a great leader by example; he has never struck me as an especially clear-headed or calculating one and he'll need to be thinking, as well as playing, on all cylinders when the important decisions come knocking.

by lostinwales Mon 16 Mar 2015, 1:06 pm

Italy do seem to be fairly capable at holding on to the ball for long periods also. They did look to be on top vs France for spells but were just utterly toothless

by Gooseberry Mon 16 Mar 2015, 1:06 pm

40 points would be a record win for Wales.
Going back they won by 17, 8 then 5 points after losing by 3 in Rome. 2005 they won by 30 in a year everyone put cricket scores on Italy.

Judging by that and the relative strength of both teams, allowing for Wales being smashed up (aside from Lee is anyone else dead? there was a lot of minor blood and bruising) and assuming Italy arent quite as poor as this weekend Id say 20 points is a reasonable estimate. 40 points is a heck of an ask for any team against any opposition away from home, it would be a hell of an effort to produce that margin. 30 is not so unrealistic, and enough to put pressure on Ireland and England to not just win but do it with a solid margin.

I certainly wouldnt rule Wales out.

by GunsGerms Mon 16 Mar 2015, 1:15 pm

Id say Wales could easily put 30 plus points on Italy in Rome maybe even 40. There is a very good chance they will take it home.

by **Notch** Mon 16 Mar 2015, 1:16 pm

If Samson Lee is out I can see them getting pinged a bit against the Italian scrum, losing a lot of territory to subsequent penalty kicks.

If you want to put a big score on Italy, a really good scrum is very important. They have a fairly high error count. Drop the ball a lot. Got to have a tight five that can make those turnovers really pay!

by Guest Mon 16 Mar 2015, 1:35 pm

As I said elsewhere, I think Italy v Wales will be quite a nervy, close encounter. If we win I can't see it being by more than 10 points. 20 points in Italy would be a very big win for us. 40 is just impossible I think.

by **rodders** Mon 16 Mar 2015, 1:47 pm

Why would it be nervy? wales have nothing to loose and can just go for it.

Ireland and England will be the ones with the nerves imo -especially England at home and knowing exactly what score they need.

It's entirely plausible that one of, or all of Italy, Scotland and France win.

by **Notch** Mon 16 Mar 2015, 1:48 pm

rodders wrote:It's entirely plausible that one of, or all of Italy, Scotland and France win.

Imagine France win the championship...

by **rodders** Mon 16 Mar 2015, 1:50 pm

Notch wrote:
rodders wrote:It's entirely plausible that one of, or all of Italy, Scotland and France win.

Imagine France win the championship...

Amazing wouldn't it. Could well happen....

by SecretFly Mon 16 Mar 2015, 2:21 pm

The Return of Mercurialism!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by Guest Mon 16 Mar 2015, 3:58 pm

rodders wrote:Why would it be nervy? wales have nothing to loose and can just go for it.

Ireland and England will be the ones with the nerves imo -especially England at home and knowing exactly what score they need.

It's entirely plausible that one of, or all of Italy, Scotland and France win.

Nothing to lose? We have a game to lose, and a tournament. Italy will not be happy with someone coming there with a points total in mind. They'll be looking to wipe that arrogance off our faces and out of the history books. So we'll be trying to win, but win by a certain amount which can often mean the basics are rushed and the scores do not come and the frustration creeps in. So we'll be nervy. Italy will be defiant perhaps, rather than nervy.

by emack2 Mon 16 Mar 2015, 4:12 pm

The one thing about the 6Ns with 2 exceptions there really is little between the other 4
sides.
Despite all the hype it may well come down to points difference for the third successive year
titles decided by massive scoring against the weakest two.

by GLove39 Mon 16 Mar 2015, 4:25 pm

Really hope that Italy & us get it together & properly muck things up for the 'top 4'.

by SecretFly Mon 16 Mar 2015, 4:28 pm

GLove39 wrote:Really hope that Italy & us get it together & properly muck things up for the 'top 4'.

I really hope France joins you on an attack on the top 3......... Wink

by Guest Mon 16 Mar 2015, 4:29 pm

GLove39 wrote:Really hope that Italy & us get it together & properly muck things up for the 'top 4'.

Well if you can't beat us, join us. By......... erm, beating us!

by GLove39 Mon 16 Mar 2015, 4:31 pm

Griff wrote:
GLove39 wrote:Really hope that Italy & us get it together & properly muck things up for the 'top 4'.

Well if you can't beat us, join us. By......... erm, beating us!

by SecretFly Mon 16 Mar 2015, 4:38 pm

Okay, I've already said somewhere that I'll consider 3rd a clear cut failure - considering the starting platform we got.

2nd will be okay - with a frown. 1st will be okay - with less of a frown; maybe even a smile of the last laugh being with us after the laughs at our expense this weekend Wink

So what do the rest think?

What will the Welsh boys be happy or annoyed with? And the English?

by Gooseberry Mon 16 Mar 2015, 4:56 pm

SecretFly wrote:Okay, I've already said somewhere that I'll consider 3rd a clear cut failure - considering the starting platform we got.

2nd will be okay - with a frown. 1st will be okay - with less of a frown; maybe even a smile of the last laugh being with us after the laughs at our expense this weekend

So what do the rest think?

What will the Welsh boys be happy or annoyed with? And the English?

Personally I'd find it hilarious if you ended up 4th, although the maths of that is pretty much a non starter it could happen if France win big but your chaps lose in some kind of historic disaster movie style. And Wales win.

by SecretFly Mon 16 Mar 2015, 4:59 pm

Oh it will be hilarious if we drop to 4th, I agree. But I'd accept it to see an English man cry with laughter at a Welsh win Wink

That's a rare treat that would just about soothe the pain.

by **Notch** Mon 16 Mar 2015, 5:02 pm

I don't see the difference between 3rd and 2nd if we get 8 points. 4 wins out 5 is 4 out of 5.

by SecretFly Mon 16 Mar 2015, 5:07 pm

Like all contests though, Notch. 2nd is 2nd for a reason - as is 1st - as is 3rd - as is the Wooden Spoon.

But that's okay. I understand your approach. Just taking soundings on what people might be content with considering the season they've had.

by Pot Hale Mon 16 Mar 2015, 5:36 pm

Italy have lost by an average of 29 points at home in the final round.

That's where Wales should be starting. Meeting the average would put them top of the table. Then it's up to them to see how high they can make the chase.

Come on Wales, we know you can do it......

Put that Scott Williams fella out there from the start and he'll wrap up three tries before you can say Holy Smokin Cannelloni.

by **Notch** Mon 16 Mar 2015, 5:44 pm

SecretFly wrote:Like all contests though, Notch. 2nd is 2nd for a reason - as is 1st - as is 3rd - as is the Wooden Spoon.

But that's okay. I understand your approach. Just taking soundings on what people might be content with considering the season they've had.

If the reason is one team has a points difference of +39 and the other has a points difference of +37, then that is a very slender margin of error in a tournament which is charmingly lop-sided with regards to the fixtures. We could be third instead of second by the difference of one missed kick- the difference between second and third could be so slight as to be insignificant.

Better to judge yourself by what you can control- I judge Six Nations by number of games won as opposed to standings, and by performance in those games.

by SecretFly Mon 16 Mar 2015, 5:52 pm

No, records only think of 1st, 2nd and 3rd Notch.
Nobody goes into that detail 5 or 10 years from now - all they quote is records of where they were when, and where their opponents weren't.

I repeat, there is a reason why 2nd is 2nd and it involves points difference and tries scored. It's a measuring tool. 2nd is 2nd and 3rd is 3rd. And 1st is 1st. That's the only reason next week is so newsworthy - all three of those numbers are being played for.

by Gwlad Mon 16 Mar 2015, 6:18 pm

Pot Hale wrote:Italy have lost by an average of 29 points at home in the final round.

That's where Wales should be starting. Meeting the average would put them top of the table. Then it's up to them to see how high they can make the chase.

Come on Wales, we know you can do it......

Put that Scott Williams fella out there from the start and he'll wrap up three tries before you can say Holy Smokin Cannelloni.

Williams is a tough call….i certainly would start Roberts as we need to get away in the first 30, but i would give SW at least 35 minutes to start to open up the italian defense. Perhaps rest Foxy actually and play Roberts with Williams.

by **Notch** Mon 16 Mar 2015, 6:41 pm

SecretFly wrote:No, records only think of 1st, 2nd and 3rd Notch.
Nobody goes into that detail 5 or 10 years from now - all they quote is records of where they were when, and where their opponents weren't.

I repeat, there is a reason why 2nd is 2nd and it involves points difference and tries scored. It's a measuring tool. 2nd is 2nd and 3rd is 3rd. And 1st is 1st. That's the only reason next week is so newsworthy - all three of those numbers are being played for.

Like hell they do. All we ever quote is who the record books show won the thing and nobody cares about the rest. Bad teams have finished second in poor years and good teams have finished fourth in competitive years. The record books are the dullest part of rugby history, and who finishes in the middle four places in the championship is the dullest part of the record books. When is the last time someone quoted the difference between 2nd and 3rd as being important in the Six Nations on an argument on here? Whens the last time someone boasted about finishing mid table, but ahead of their rivals on points difference? Nobody cares about the difference between 2nd and 3rd place. Within weeks it will be forgotten.

There is only one place that matters at the weekend, 1st place. Thats what everyone is playing for. There are no silver or bronze medals to be handed out. If we're not first, I couldn't give a damn about the tournaments final standing. All I care about is our own results and our own performances because they are the only reliable predictors of whether we will improve for the World Cup or not.

The thing is, the Six Nations has a large margin of error in terms of the fixtures not being evenly weighted I don't even think finishing 1st in a year with no Grand Slam is an indicator you're better than the team than finished level on points with you. Come World Cup time winning by large margins is redundant past the group stages anyway. I would consider last years title win in some respects a shared title between England and Ireland and this year, should all three teams win on Saturday, a three-way tie. The team that finishes third will be able to claim they are just as likely to beat the that finishes first in their next meeting as they are to lose to them. The highest scoring side will deservedly take the prize but they will have no exclusive bragging rights about being the best team in the NH. That honour is reserved for Grand Slam winners and Grand Slam winners alone.

by SecretFly Mon 16 Mar 2015, 6:52 pm

I'd rather be 3rd than a Wooden Spoon, Notch. Wooden Spoon wouldn't be a fail it would be a disaster.

Position counts. Anyone who says everything is irrelevant after 1st is being disingenuous, as 3rd is better than last. Therefore, every other numerical position has meaning too using the same reasoning.

It has for me anyway. But we'll settle for yet another 'disagree' Laugh

by **profitius** Mon 16 Mar 2015, 6:54 pm

Toss a coin. Much depends also on what opposition turn up and their attitude.

by **Notch** Mon 16 Mar 2015, 7:37 pm

SecretFly wrote:I'd rather be 3rd than a Wooden Spoon, Notch. Wooden Spoon wouldn't be a fail it would be a disaster.

Position counts. Anyone who says everything is irrelevant after 1st is being disingenuous, as 3rd is better than last. Therefore, every other numerical position has meaning too using the same reasoning.

It has for me anyway. But we'll settle for yet another 'disagree'

Yeah there are two positions that count. First and last!

by Gwlad Mon 16 Mar 2015, 8:03 pm

Apparently coming 2nd is Very auspicious and indicative of consistency. unfortunately Wales have failed to come 2nd very often, especially in the last few years but hopefully they can aspire to coming 2nd this weekend. Fingers crossed.

by SecretFly Mon 16 Mar 2015, 8:05 pm

Some guy seems to be injecting adrenalin into his eyeballs to get the extra edge in these parts Laugh

by bedfordwelsh Mon 16 Mar 2015, 8:22 pm

I like to have a flutter on the rugby and some of the bigger horse meetings and have had a good week with Cheltenham and had Wales at 6-10 points on Saturday plus put a bet on before it all started that there be no GS this year so that paid out as well.

So looking ahead I thought I would see what the odds were for the weekend and with the view of what may need to happen for Wales to win I had a look at Wales to Win and draws in the other 2 games.

Odds that I was quoted 508/1, thats got a fiver of my money on it now.

by The Saint Mon 16 Mar 2015, 9:55 pm

Gwlad wrote:Apparently coming 2nd is Very auspicious and indicative of consistency. unfortunately Wales have failed to come 2nd very often, especially in the last few years but hopefully they can aspire to coming 2nd this weekend. Fingers crossed.

If only all teams would raise their game against us, that would help Laugh

.

by rapidsnowman Tue 17 Mar 2015, 8:01 am

On paper England would appear to have the toughest game thinking purely in terms of the win. Even though they are the only team at home, France has the personnel to beat England IF they click (although there is little evidence to suggest they will).

On the other hand England seem to be able to slaughter France on occasion and therefore could rack up a very tidy score.

Wales will win against Italy, but can they get 40+ clear points? Italy will want to build on their win against Scotland and finish well in front of their own fans.

I would love to see Ireland go all out for this one and try everything in their armory. The Slam has gone.

So in summary....I haven't a clue!

Vote with heart..c'mon Ireland

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